Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/port-of-los-angeles-sees-shipping-volume-down-35percent-next-week-as-tariffs-bite.html

by perihelions • 1 year ago

724 590 1 year ago

duxup8• 1 year ago

It will be interesting to see if retailers choose raising prices or if they lean more towards ... just not offering some things.

codingbot3000• 1 year ago

Gilead might be in for empty shelves like Venezuela and Cuba :-D

duxup8• 1 year ago

I'll be sad, but amused, when Trump and Co declare that each state should build factories to fill their needs for basic products ... similar to proposals made during the economic collapse days in Venezuela.

xnx2• 1 year ago

A retailer would be irrational to let stock run out instead of continuously raising prices.

ARandumGuy• 1 year ago

For stuff that people need and will buy at heavily inflated prices, sure. But there are a lot of non-essential items that people probably won't buy if the price increases significantly. And for those items, I suspect a lot of stores will just let the shelves stay empty instead of spending a lot of money for inventory they can't sell.

9rx2• 1 year ago

The customer will only bear so much, though, so at some point the businesses that keep buying stock and raising prices will be left with stock that cannot be priced any higher, leaving it to be unloaded at a loss. That can be a far worse situation than not having any stock at all. Either way, it is an uncomfortable gamble.

duxup8• 1 year ago

Depends on the product and if your marketing is low prices do you want to be the one to first crank them up and get Trump all upset?

teeray2• 1 year ago

Not enough greed: Stockpile in a back warehouse and raise prices on the two or three items per day you allow on the shelves.

mindslight• 1 year ago

Aliexpress is already displaying tariff-inclusive prices.

A curious dynamic: A seller importing a container of cargo to Amazon (or other US warehouse) has to pay the tariffs up front while trusting that dear leader won't lower the tariff amount before they can sell them. A seller that ships directly from China has a committed purchase with cash in hand by the time the specific tariff needs to be paid. I can see this leading to drastically less selection from US warehouses of long tail items that would otherwise sit around.

Speculation: I wouldn't be surprised if Aliexpress (/Choice) charges sellers a fixed fee based on the current tariff rates, but still covers whatever the tariff ends up being when the item arrives at the port, to make it really straightforward for sellers. The kind of eat-it investment you get in a society working to build up institutions rather than tear them down.

vjvjvjvjghv2• 1 year ago

I think it will be both. Raising prices for some goods because of tariffs (and adding some percent for good measure and profit) while also discontinuing others. It may go like the car market where cheaper options are slowly being phased out and the focus goes to higher priced vehicles.

jmyeet6• 1 year ago

For many goods a 145% tariff is a ban for all intents and purposes and no different to a 100% tariff or a 200% tariff. This is just more evidence (as if we needed it) that the administration has no idea what they're doing.

Certain goods are extremely high mark up. For example, clothing is typically 100-200% markup. So if you buy a $5 t-shirt and sell it for $15, the tariffed price is now ~$12. You may find retailers will sell that at $20, absorbing some of the cost on a temporary basis.

Also, many such retailers have already sought to diversify their supply chains (eg buying clothing from Vietnam and other places).

mystified50162• 1 year ago

Prices never really came down after the COVID shortages, I really don't expect this round of shortage to be any different. Companies have a convenient excuse to jack up prices with the comforting lie that they'll go back down when shortages are over.

pelagic_sky• 1 year ago

Seattle ports are currently empty, will be interesting to see if this holds true . https://seemorerocks.substack.com/p/port-of-seattle-empty-ze...

thehoff3• 1 year ago

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

trymas• 1 year ago

I think there were already multiple posts on HN about this.

Most recent I remember UPS firing 20 000 people.

Edit: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43835849

rdtsc6• 1 year ago

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of

But since we’re being cynical, is importing stuff just to keep the port workers busy a good idea?

throw3108223• 1 year ago

Dockworkers, logistics, truck delivery drivers, warehouse workers, etc.

On the other hand, I guess it might be a great time for small shops and businesses that produce low to medium tech stuff- from crafts, clothing and furniture to electronics. Even if the country's going to suffer they should profit handsomely (which is not a bad thing per se).

perihelions2• 1 year ago

But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0].

[0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ("China’s first self-built fully automated dock enters operation in Qingdao, Shandong Province" (2023))

ChainOfFools• 1 year ago

Intermodal freight drayage industry, which is largely comprised of a thousands of very small and ineffocoently run mom and pop nepo-companies run dependent upon an open tolerance of very scammy business tactics extending temporary surcharges indefinitely, milking covid business relief loans to the fullest extent possible) in order to survive, is going to experience a mass die-off if this tariff war lasts another 6 to 9 months.

juujian• 1 year ago

Can't wait to find out...

xyst2• 1 year ago

Remember what I told all of you about stocking up on stuff and arbitraging it later once the shelves were emptied? Well...we're just about there.

Price gouging is so hot rn…

razepan• 1 year ago

This SS post is fear porn. The Seattle Times article they link to at the bottom of their post gives actual numbers, not just vibes based on what poster can see with their binoculars.

"Data from the Marine Exchange of Puget Sound, an industry association, shows the number of arriving container ships berthing at Seattle and Tacoma terminals from April 1 to April 24 was down 12% compared with the same period in 2024."

Make no mistake this is bad, but "Port of Seattle EMPTY - ZERO Inbound Ocean Container Ships" is some straight up bullshit.

ceejayoz6• 1 year ago

Trump only announced the tariffs on April 2, and the crossing takes weeks, and some traffic will left later than that having gambled that it'd be undone in transit. (Some of it was!)

The stat for "April 1 to April 24" is likely to be different than the stat on April 27th alone. Both may be true.

The port does look pretty empty on https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-122.373/c...

Your stat also includes Tacoma, a close but different port. The Port of Seattle isn't quite empty, but numbers... aren't awesome.

https://www.king5.com/article/news/verify/what-we-can-verify...

Northwest Seaport Alliance Port of Seattle Commissioner, Ryan Calkins, said the future does not look as good. "The last forecast I saw was forecasting out over the next three months, and each month was forecasted to be down around 25% per month,” Calkins said. The Seaport Alliance said some ships are coming in with less cargo than anticipated. In some cases, it is 30% lower.

polyomino• 1 year ago

lies, source: I looked out my window

jjulius• 1 year ago

Seattle ports are currently empty...

At the time of my response, there are five container ships in Eliot Bay, and a large container ship, along with a smaller container ship that just arrived, docked at Harbor Island (the primary port in question).

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-122.338/c...

flustercan2• 1 year ago

I am literally looking at a port with many containers and a fully loaded ship waiting to unload more containers at the port of Seattle right this second.

(based on other replies I guess I'm not the only one in Pioneer Square lol)

taylodl7• 1 year ago

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

thehoff3• 1 year ago

FTA: Maybe not empty but less choice and alternatives not necessarily what you're looking for.

“I don’t see a complete emptiness on store shelves or online when we’re buying. But if you’re out looking for a blue shirt, you might find 11 purple ones and one blue in a size that’s not yours. So we’ll start seeing less choice on those shelves simply because we’re not getting the variety of goods coming in here based on the additional costs in place. And for that one blue shirt that’s still left, you’ll see a price hike,” Seroka said.

taylodl7• 1 year ago

Markets don't work that way. Supply is tuned to demand. When the supply is artificially constrained while the demand remains constant, it further strains already limited supplies, leading to empty shelves and rising prices. This is a fundamental principle of market economics. It's important to understand how these dynamics operate to grasp the broader implications of reduced imports from China.

XorNot• 1 year ago

It takes exactly 1 "bare shelves" post on social media to kick off panic buying which cascades.

In fact it doesn't take much of a change in regular buying habits to cause that it it's all aligned in the same direction.

i.e. a chunk of the toilet paper "shortage" can just be every customer suddenly buying one more pack that day "just to be on the safe side". Your local supermarket isn't expecting that, so the shelves still clear out that day - then the last person snaps a pic for social media....

croes• 1 year ago

So I look for shirts and only find pants.

Not an empty shelf in the literal way but empty on my demand

Workaccount22• 1 year ago

This guy is not pricing in panic and irrational behavior. People do the dumbest shit when supplies start getting low and the news is non-stop talking about shortages.

cameldrv2• 1 year ago

Honestly I doubt that shelves will be empty. Retailers are ordering less stuff from China because they’re predicting that demand will go down when the price is higher. If retailers were marking stuff up roughly 100% and take the same markup (in absolute terms), everything from China will go up about 70%, and people will simply not be able to afford to buy as much stuff.

SwamyM• 1 year ago

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen?

The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

2OEH8eoCRo0• 1 year ago

Well every time they speculate people pounce on them for being wrong, lying, fake news, etc.

We will see!

duxup8• 1 year ago

I don’t think the media really knows what will happen. Trump randomly decides to lift tariffs and any prediction is off.

chunky19942• 1 year ago

This is a good discussion around the supply chain issues that will likely be happening: https://youtu.be/-dgHWv-Dh6Q?t=1370

Ryan runs Flexport which is a supply chain company so its from the "source" if you will.

taylodl7• 1 year ago

I'm in the same boat as you, trying to figure out the impacts of all this. We're hearing reports that the ports are empty, and we know the CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot recently visited Trump to warn him of empty store shelves. The fact that these key ports are seeing reduced shipments corroborates their warning.

Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, said just yesterday that he doesn't believe any shelves will be empty due to retailers planning ahead for the supply disruption—directly contradicting what the CEOs of those retailers had warned Trump just a few days earlier.

I have serious concerns about the competency of this administration. The CEOs of major retailers have a vested interest in understanding supply and demand and have intimate knowledge of supply chains and retail channels. If they say shelves are going to be empty, then you can take it to the bank that shelves are going to be empty.

Everything is pointing to shelves being empty. What happens after the shelves start going empty is what has me concerned. It could be a minor issue, or it could lead to mass panic. My concern is that I have no confidence in this administration's ability to resolve any issues that may arise due to their actions. They're making the mess and are expecting us to clean it up after them.

bongodongobob3• 1 year ago

It's already happening for certain products, but we don't see it yet. The shelves lag a couple months behind the actual purchases. For example, you are Walmart and buy a bulk order of something from China. The order processes a couple days later, then it sits and waits to be shipped for days lets say. It gets in the ship and takes 2-3 weeks to get here. Then it takes a couple days to be unloaded. Then it needs to get trucked to the main distribution center. Then it's packaged/processed and shipped to intermediate warehouses. Then from there, shipped to the store, sits for a few days-week then gets put on shelves.

Even worse is that depending on the product, you might not even be able to place an order from the importer because they are completely unable to actually price the things with all of the uncertainty right now. A friend of mine is a hearing device retailer/distributor. He tried to order way more than he usually does a month ago to get ahead of this. The order was denied because they said they have no idea how to price any of it. So he's just going to have to wait an indeterminate amount of time which then makes it impossible for him to plan. He has to jack up his prices to cover future potential price increases and to be able to keep the lights on if they run out of stock.

elbasti2• 1 year ago

I asked a good friend that runs a multi-billion dollar CPG business that relies on China imports. His answer:

Almost guaranteed.
There are some categories (toys, pet stuff,computer accessories) where HUGE percentages of goods are made in china. Those shelves will be empty as soon as inventory runs out, which will be soon.
Shelves would get re-stocked once tariffs are removed and the ships start sailing again.
If it takes longer than 60 days from now, we're looking at 10s of thousands of bankruptcies. This will make covid look like a weekend at the ritz carlton. Biggest financial crisis since the great depression.

My takeaway: People are not taking this NEARLY seriously enough.

My tinfoil hat interpretation: The US govt knows how serious this is, and they know that if people panic (which honestly, they fucking should) it increases China's leverage substantially.

vonneumannstan• 1 year ago

Is there a sense of what products are actually at risk of not being in stock?

gonzo412• 1 year ago

Anything made of cheap plastic, like all kids toys and lower end electronics. Anything you wouldn't really pay double for.

danans2• 1 year ago

Anything low cost that requires a significant amount of manual labor to assemble. So clothes, toys, accessories, etc.

TheOtherHobbes3• 1 year ago

A lot of packaging is sourced from China.

Things that wouldn't otherwise be a problem will become a problem. Potentially that includes bottles, tins, plastic food packaging, niche carboard boxes.

Imports from China are ~40% of all US imports. Even a 10% drop would be difficult, and at current levels it's going to be more than that.

pkulak• 1 year ago

Trump will back down and lift the teriffs the second there are widespread consequences. He’ll give some excuse, and his supporters will eat it up.

That or he’ll make so many deals with CEOs for political support and financial contributions that we won’t even notice that a few smaller companies went out of business or pulled out of the US.

Anon84• 1 year ago

It may not matter. The ships that were supposed to be here, aren't. Even if the tariffs were lifted today, it would still take weeks for new orders to be shipped and delivered to the US. We're very much in the FO part of FAFO

ZeroGravitas• 1 year ago

The flexport CEO, in the video shared in this discussion, predicts a back down on the basis that 80% of small business that rely on Chinese imports going bust if they continue.

Even if they attempt to switch suppliers to avoid tariffs they'll be at the back of the line behind the bigger fish.

cryptonym• 1 year ago

Trade war isn't real until shelves are empty and black market is blooming, like a regular war.

jmyeet6• 1 year ago

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying.

Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply.

This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by existing strategies to avoid China tariffs eg selling through Vietnam.

Certain businesses will be hit hard. And that's really the biggest problem: cascading effects leading to an inevitable recession. Already, truckers who ship goods from ports are sitting around idle. We've cut tens of thousands from the government. More layoffs are to come.

jghn4• 1 year ago

I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive.

As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's supplies, electronics, etc. Sure, I'll buy them once in a while but not with any regularity. My understanding is that the classic paper products famous from COVID shortages are made in the US.

So with that in mind what you say is 100% true, at least for me. But I'm not so sure. Who makes the containers that my local milk is put into? Who makes the cans that my canned goods are using? What meta-products are being consumed by the local industries, such as the ones making my TP? I have a feeling the answer is scarier than it'd seem on the surface. But I don't know.

SoftTalker• 1 year ago

Everyone here is worried about it from the American side, but China has motivation to settle this too, so they can continue to sell their enshitified plastic crap. It's not like most other wealthy countries want it, at least not any more than they are already buying.

parineum5• 1 year ago

I haven't seen anyone saying that there's going to be no food. All reporting I've seen is that Walmart/Target shelves are going to be empty because of the glut of consumer goods they sell that are manufacture in China, ie, clothing, toys, electronics, etc.

andsoitis3• 1 year ago

Consider that even for food that is produced locally, there are inputs (tin for cans, electricity, etc.) that is being negatively impacted by the tariff circus, unnecessarily.

gosub1002• 1 year ago

I'd be fine if cheaply made plastic junk is gone from the shelves. Where are the environmentalists now? The ones who warned us to stop overconsuming? Their tribe conflicts with Trump so their refrain goes mute until a more convenient time.

adamc2• 1 year ago

I buy dish soap on a regular basis. Not sure where the soap is produced, but I would guess the bottles might be from China -- a lot of packaging is. Sure, there are some US companies that make bottles, but can they expand their capacity? Probably not quickly.

I think there will be a lot of unintuitive effects from things like packaging.

reaperducer• 1 year ago

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty.

Retailers Fear Toy Shortages at Christmas as Tariffs Freeze Supply Chain: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/29/business/trump-tariffs-ch...

In a Toy Association survey of 410 toy manufacturers with annual sales of less than $100 million, more than 60 percent said they had canceled orders, and around 50 percent said they would go out of business within weeks or months if the tariffs remained. … She had placed a large order of scooters to arrive for the summer. But the importer rerouted the shipment to Canada because it did not want to pay the tariff.

rs999gti• 1 year ago

the toilet paper

I guess these US manufacturers will need to step it up: Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, and Georgia-Pacific

toomuchtodo3• 1 year ago

The feedstock for toilet paper (wood pulp) comes from Canada.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trumps-tariffs-on-canadian-lumber...

wiether• 1 year ago

With raw material coming from other countries, probably.

torton• 1 year ago

As we learned from COVID-19, manufacturers really don't like building new factories or even changing the tooling to support a different kind of product (such as commercial vs household toilet paper) for a short-lived surge in demand.

An antifragile solution would be learning to use a bidet.

selectodude3• 1 year ago

I've seen all three begin short-shipping us, especially on cheaper brands.

AtlasBarfed• 1 year ago

People seem to think, including very disturbingly our secretary of the Treasury, the companies maintain huge warehouses of back stock.

That hasn't been the case since the mid-90s when the PC revolution started pushing out supply chain management software. If I recall correctly, Walmart was the innovator in this space in one of their key ways to gain economic advantage over other retailers was low back stock demand tracking

On top of that the '90s was when free trade agreements came into Vogue and the supply lines and outsourcing of manufacturing cranked up into high gear.

So as we saw with covid, any disruption to this a highly extended optimized supply chain results in massive disruption.

I can't see how any massive new tariffs isn't going to essentially be a covid level or worse disruption to this entire supply chain

antonvs• 1 year ago

That hasn't been the case since the mid-90s when the PC revolution started pushing out supply chain management software.

I worked on PC software for optimizing warehouse inventory in the mid-1980s. The system was designed by an applied mathematician and used by large national companies. Customers made substantial savings - double digit percentages of inventory cost.

andsoitis3• 1 year ago

Toyota is famous for inventing Just-in-Time production and logistics system: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System

jp57• 1 year ago

HN should have a feature where you can tag a prediction to come back for review after some period of time.

jdc0589• 1 year ago

we need the reddit remindme bot

evertedsphere• 1 year ago

"Show HN: Automatic HN Prediction Market"

jillesvangurp• 1 year ago

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get the ripple effect on banks via foreclosures of businesses and mortgages (like sixteen years ago).

There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer. That's a stick that can be (and probably already is) wielded that might produce results soonish.

At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff or to source key components that they require for their own products. China was not being subtle rejecting delivery of a couple of new Boeing planes. And reductions in container traffic from China (which are the life blood of the US economy) are of course a very visible thing. And since container deliveries are critical for supply chains of most manufacturing that actually still happens in the US, that could get ugly really quickly.

Worst case all this triggers a recession. Those are rarely predicted accurately until after they've happened. But the signs aren't great and wall street is definitely nervous. A few stocks crashing because investors start panic selling could do the job. We're not there yet, but it got close a few weeks ago.

roughly4• 1 year ago

There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer. That's a stick that can be (and probably already is) wielded that might produce results soonish.

I sincerely hope you’re right, but all initial evidence is the oligarchs kissing the ring, not pulling the strings. Maybe when it becomes obvious that they’re not getting anything for all that abasement they change tacks, but nothing in the Trump era has suggested to me that these folks have the tiger by anything but the tail.

rotexo• 1 year ago

There are of course quite a few large US businesses being affected directly by this stuff. I imagine that they are not happy with this. And that level of unhappiness will translate into shifts in political donations. Which, I'm sure is something that will get more apparent as next year's mid term elections get closer.

Maybe. It is possible, though, that we are now in a situation like in the third Nolan Batman movie where Tom hardy puts his hand on the rich guy’s neck and says “do you feel in charge?”

csomar• 1 year ago

The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components

In a sane world, that's what targeted tariffs are. You don't want to tariffs across the whole board because you might affect exporting manufactures whose prices will go through the roof and might experience disruption. It is kind of what is happening with auto tariffs now that there is a huge blow back but one wonder how many industries out there can't voice their concerns or are not aware of this.

robomartin4• 1 year ago

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best.

How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clearly in the horizon for both regions within a decade or two?

To be sure, what's going on today should have been done twenty to thirty years ago. Doing this today is far more difficult and painful.

I think Kevin O'Leary put it best: What we want a reasonably free markets. It isn't just about tariffs. It's about regulatory lockout, intellectual property and more.

For example, India imposes as much as a 110% tariff on US cars and trucks. The list of such actions --which also included non-tariff rules-based restrictions-- is long. From China imposing up to 25% on our cars, autos, chemicals and food to the EU, Canada, Mexico and others following suit. Brazil collected over $800 million in retaliatory tariffs blocking US pharmaceuticals, autos and textiles.

In other words, the relationship with hundreds of countries has been very one-sided for a long time. US industry needs to export to thrive, but if countries like Turkey impose 140% tariffs on our autos and trucks, markets are de-facto shut down.

How long can any country survive this kind of inequity?

So, yeah, this is a rough moment. I hope it is for the best. Everyone benefits from a more open and balanced market.

And then, of course, there's one of the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft.

Going back to Kevin O'Learly:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKkdor6_rw4

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=567065763062114

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jGFWWqbDwuw

https://www.tmz.com/watch/kevin-o-leary-china-tariffs-04-09-...

ryandrake2• 1 year ago

Worst case all this triggers a recession.

Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession!

The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sanctions and force them to rely on themselves economically: It reduces one of the downsides of warfighting. Do we really want an isolated, independent and self-sufficient China?

kolanos5• 1 year ago

At least, I imagine the CEOs of GM, Ford, Boeing, etc. might have a thing or two to say about seeing China disappear as a market where they can do business to sell stuff....

They largely weren't doing this anyway due to Chinese economic policy. For example:

Ford's market share in China has declined significantly.In 2024, Ford's market share was 1.6%, down from a peak of 4.7% in 2015. Over the past three years, Ford's average market share in China has been a modest 1.8%.

rvba3• 1 year ago

Why do you say "China was nor subtle by rejecting a plane"?

It was some semi private line, who would have to pay twice the usual price in a unfavorable market.

The part apparatchiks didnt need to order them. They just dont want to overpay.

sanderjd7• 1 year ago

Recession is the base case. The worst case is ... worse.

danielmarkbruce2• 1 year ago

Plus China as a country seems more capable of "toughing it out". That's not necessarily a compliment on the situation, but it is what it is.

a_bonobo• 1 year ago

I'm already seeing this in the life-sciences. Illumina, who used to own the game of DNA sequencing, has been laying people off left and right. All my contacts within the company are laid off.

Illumina is a special edge case as they've been a victim of souring China-US relations before the tariffs even started: https://www.fiercebiotech.com/medtech/illumina-aims-cut-100m...

dv_dt• 1 year ago

Retail shelves are a easy personally viewable measure, but a ramping logistics disruption & price increase on all sorts of processes we rely on daily may also be going on in parallel with more empty shelves. Parts for factories, cars, appliances, power stations etc...

aziaziazi3• 1 year ago

The smart ones will head to the hardware store instead of rushing to the paper: bidet-washing-tube will makes you free of toilet paper for life.

Cost: 10-30$

Installation: 20min with basic tools on your existing toilet.

Usage: tons and tons of online tutorials because 1/3 of the world already use that daily. But you can also figure it out yourself easely, it’s way easier than managing node_modules on a shared project.

Even cheaper alternative: a simple plastic bottle half-full and half bend. Many cheap labours in my city (Paris, fr) use one at work (cook, night cleaners, construction…). While the bourgeoisie fight for pooping clean during a world crisis, their Pakistani labor do they shit as usual. We should be inspired.

RandomBacon• 1 year ago

As someone who has used real bidets, I've tried bidet attachments - they suck.

I'm going to remain with my traditional toilet until I move into my "forever home" at which point I will install bidets.

pavon• 1 year ago

Since we got a bidet we use more toilet paper for drying than we used to use for wiping. Perhaps the full-size ones work better, but the fans for add-on bidets are worthless.

techpineapple• 1 year ago

I would imagine the reaction from the white house will be to attack businesses for failing to order product for political reasons, traitors trying to help China avoid paying Tarrifs.

And I imagine this strategy will be more effective than one would first think, since it's nuts. I imagine it will change business behavior, maybe even to the point that business act against their own economic interests, the question is how much? The crazy thing is that will the Trump effect last long enough to negatively impact the next president or the Democratic congress assuming they win in 2026? The presidents numbers wouldn't suggest that it could go that long, but the world is upside down right now.

ethagnawl• 1 year ago

I made my first trip (of many) to the store to stock up on shelf-stable items this morning.

tomcar2884• 1 year ago

let's not forget, "In 2024, China supplied approximately 13.4% of the total goods imported by the United States, with a total value of $438.9 billion. " '

And those are heavily concentrated in certain industries like basic electronics, toys, etc.

in anycase, it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

otterley5• 1 year ago

The weird thing is that toilet paper isn’t even a necessity. It’s a convenience. One could do just as well with a damp washcloth. Sure, you have to wash it afterwards, but it’s not that bad.

Or one could use a bidet, but I think most of these are imported from China. Oops.

kolanos5• 1 year ago

It's a good thing the United States doesn't depend on China for toilet paper, then.

The United States primarily sources its toilet paper domestically, with about 90% being manufactured within the country.However, a significant portion of imports come from Canada and Mexico.

In fact, the United States does not depend on China for any essential consumer goods from what I can find.

Zamaamiro7• 1 year ago

What do you define as "essential consumer goods"?

American parents would probably put car seats and strollers in that bucket.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/28/business/strollers-car-seats-...

rvba3• 1 year ago

What is the source of wood for that paper? Canada?

FuriouslyAdrift• 1 year ago

This assumes domestic production does not ramp up to meet demand. Yes, prices will increase (pushing down demand).

I work for an org that does packaging (boxes, pallets, etc) for a whole bunch of manufacturing, ag, and retail firms (Tesla, Thyssenkrup, Target, etc.) and we are booming right now.

hahajk• 1 year ago

If it's famine you're worried about, I think we'll be ok as long as the govt doesn't try to set prices/mandate supply [1] (which isn't out of the question I suppose.)

If it's war due to decreased economic interdependence, well yes that would be much worse.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theories_of_famines

3vidence• 1 year ago

Setting prices seems like it is just one executive order away...

fuzzfactor2• 1 year ago

A Walmart superstore is stacked to the gills with products of all description.

What makes lots of money is not exactly having so many different choices stocked, instead having a good proportion of items "fly off the shelf" can be the focus.

The high-performance store will have numerous shelves completely clear every day, sometimes more than once per day, and they are perfectly geared to accommodate that when it happens without waiting until the more-organized nightly re-stocking.

The store is huge, and if a big shelf stays clear for any length of time it's quite noticeable. But can still represent the tip of the iceberg if that also means that quite a big multiple of inventory is also absent from "behind the curtain" in the warehouses and upstream.

readthenotes1• 1 year ago

IMO For impact on normal people's day-to-day life, the suspension of the de minimis rule that allowed boxes under $800 declared value (i.e., construction cost) to be imported with no tariff will have more of an impact than any other recent change.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/what-the-end-of-the-de-...

Aurornis5• 1 year ago

I think you’re underestimating how many products have inputs that come from China and overestimating how many direct-ship packages the average person receives internationally.

dylan6043• 1 year ago

The GP sounds more like someone that routinely bought from places like Shein, Temu, etc.

sigwinch• 1 year ago

Taxpayers as a group will pay $1 for each $0.50 collected on that. We are not yet on track for a net savings on spending.

clumsysmurf• 1 year ago

I never shopped Temu / Shein but got lots of electronics from AliExpress. My last purchase was a spectrometer, I would never be able to afford it now with tariffs + de minimus gone.

I think this will hurt the DIY / Maker / IoT community hard.

c22• 1 year ago

The DIY / Maker crowd seems the most insulated from this, being in a prime position to recycle and repurpose materials that are already here to make their own tools.

architango3• 1 year ago

Some of that impact will be positive, as de minimis shipments are a major route for importing drugs and their precursors into the US: https://www.cbp.gov/frontline/buyer-beware-bad-actors-exploi...

dralley2• 1 year ago

And strip searching everyone who enters a school building would have a positive impact on the rate of school shootings.

Over-enforcement creates its own major issues. The cure is worse than the disease.

dawnerd• 1 year ago

That doesn’t apply to the containers Walmart/ bestbuy/ target/ etc import. They’re going to pay the insane tariffs but spread the cost over all of their inventory to help hide it from consumers. No matter what prices will go up. The locally sourced higher volume goods like food will end up subsidizing slower moving items like TVs.

xnx2• 1 year ago

What's a good/authoritative site for tracking activity of US ports. This tells a little bit of the story: https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-...

Longer term trends would be nice.

Nezteb• 1 year ago

A few options:

- https://www.bts.gov/freight-indicators

- https://www.marinetraffic.com/

- https://www.vesselfinder.com/

eber• 1 year ago

I looked for something like this yesterday, and came across this dashboard with trends for the Port of LA only: https://signal.portoptimizer.com/ which seems to be a port activity dashboard (demo with real data) for the port of LA via portoptimizer.com

You'll see the trends don't seem so bad yet, but they have a previous-12-weeks graph of current year vs previous year which will be interesting to follow

trebligdivad• 1 year ago

The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?' has a good description in; it includes pointers to loads of sites with the actual data.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GgcIuQ4X5k

throw0101a• 1 year ago

The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?'

The "Youtuber" is actually a professor and Chair, Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell:

* https://directory.campbell.edu/people/sal-mercogliano/

* https://twitter.com/mercoglianos

dullcrisp• 1 year ago

You mean the chair of the department of history is actually a YouTuber.

dehrmann2• 1 year ago

The job is essentially the same: publish or perish.

sbuttgereit• 1 year ago

Sal Mercogliano who runs "What's Going On with Shipping?" is one of the best informed commentators in the subjects of logistics and shipping. He's also a skilled presenter... enough so that I subscribe to his channel and I've not got any real special interest in subject (but I do recognize it's economic importance).

Also, in a different comment, his work at Campbell is mentioned, but I think that leaves open why he has anything important to say on the subject. His bio at the U.S. Naval Institute is more informative:

"Dr. Salvatore R. Mercogliano is an associate professor of history at Campbell University in North Carolina and adjunct professor at the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy. He holds a bachelor of science in marine transportation from the State University of New York Maritime College, along with a merchant marine deck officer license (unlimited tonnage 2nd mate), a master’s in maritime history and nautical archaeology from East Carolina University, and a Ph.D. in military and naval history from the University of Alabama."

https://www.usni.org/people/salvatore-r-mercogliano

mezeek• 1 year ago

this guy really blew up after that bridge went down in Baltimore

pests• 1 year ago

Been seeing his videos pop up more. Wasn’t sure if it was completely legit or just reactionary takes but I’ll check one out now thanks.

atonse• 1 year ago

Wow I loved this "What's going on with US Ports" video. Subscribed. I love channels like this. People with a deep understanding that just report facts as they are.

I wish more mainstream media did this.

ryantgtg• 1 year ago

I, like Houston Wade, have for years been like, "why don't I see any ships or activity" each time I pass by the ports of LA/LB. But I, unlike Houston Wade, wouldn't be so arrogant to conclude from my observation that shipping has stopped.

xyst2• 1 year ago

What’s the data on exports as well? Some stories of farmers taking massive hits with demand that was only fulfilled by global market.

Aurornis5• 1 year ago

Depends on the commodity and any reciprocal (actually reciprocal) tariffs that were imposed on US products.

Soybean farmers are hit hard because a lot of their crops went to China. Meanwhile some other exports are basically unaffected right now.

Other countries have generally not been so haphazard in application of tariffs. They don’t want to actively harm their citizens and they try to plan tariffs with more precision and consideration.

Zamaamiro7• 1 year ago

It's also worth noting that some of the damage will be permanent.

Trump's mini trade war with China in 2018 (for which he had to bail out farmers) led to US farmers permanently losing market share in soybean exports to Brazil.

In 2018, during Trump's first term, the U.S. and China engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs that led Beijing to take permanent steps to reduce its reliance on American farm goods.
The share of China's soybean imports from the United States dropped to 18% in the first 11 months of 2024, from 40% in the whole of 2016, while Brazil's share grew to 74% from 46%, according to Chinese customs data.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinese-buyers-s...

ramesh31• 1 year ago

The port of Long Beach is the most mind blowing thing I have ever seen in my life. Hundreds of trucks stretching for miles, 24 hours a day. I would not wish that job on anyone... but the thought of it being empty is just terrifying.

dr_pardee• 1 year ago

Knowing someone who imports from China, there are ways around tariffs

https://harris-sliwoski.com/chinalawblog/the-guide-for-legal...

https://www.npr.org/2025/03/07/nx-s1-5318785/tariff-dodging-...

Shady ways as well https://www.voanews.com/a/as-us-tariffs-expand-chinese-firms...

digdugdirk• 1 year ago

None of these are easy, and none of them are free. Prices are going up regardless.

doctorpangloss• 1 year ago

Ha ha, the ribbon manufacturer is about to get a lot more than they bargained for. Who the fuck is going to buy ribbon in a depression?

rtkwe3• 1 year ago

The general disruption could wind up blocking or delaying even goods that are still viable and profitable or simply only available from China under the tariffs simply because the ships themselves are only viable if they are fully loaded so they'll wind up not coming to the US for long gaps if the broader "reciprocal" tariffs stop other SEA traffic as well.

rayiner3• 1 year ago

Stopping the flow of Chinese products, often made with child or forced labor, is a good thing: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/reports/child-labor/list-o.... Weren’t we upset about the Uyghurs five minutes ago?

Trade with China is bad. It means a race to the bottom with a foreign country that doesn’t have our labor protections or environmental laws, and whose “comparative advantage” is cheaper labor. This was a widely accepted belief among the left until recently: https://youtu.be/kHRZnz5oHsE?si=A3QViVdPHISAP6qI. It’s insane to give up on beliefs-especially when you’re right—because you’re mad the “wrong people” have finally come around to agreeing with you!

What would the tariffs be if you made them only high enough to offset China’s looser regulation and cheaper labor? The current tariffs probably are in the same ballpark.

andrewflnr2• 1 year ago

If it was only China being tariffed, instead of including all the allies we need to stand against China, you would start to have a point. If they were based on something other than a 1600s child king's understanding of trade balance, maybe focused on particular kinds of manufacturing, or even just explicitly based on morals instead of this fantasy of manufacturing returning to the US, you would have a point. But none of those things are true. Trump is at best a stopped clock with gears poking out through the casing.

rayiner3• 1 year ago

That might all be true, but Trump is also the only one in decades to move the needle in the direction it needs to go. Even Obama was pushing us in the direction of even more free trade with TPP.

seabrookmx• 1 year ago

Stopping the flow entirely would collapse western society as we would have no access to technology. I don't think anyone sane disagrees the geopolitical impact of dependence on China is a bad thing, but the mechanism by which this flow of goods is being disrupted is going to have a very negative impact on people's quality of life.

hollerith• 1 year ago

Stopping the flow entirely would collapse western society as we would have no access to technology.

That is a wild exaggeration!

(Not that I want the flow to stop.)

chunky19942• 1 year ago

I don't think anyone is advocating for incentivizing forced/child labour.

Given that the ILAB link you posted itself is maintained by EO 13126 signed by the Clinton Administration, I think there can be nuance in the discussion around whether or not the blanket application of certain foreign policy instruments is the right way to induce a change in the domestic policy of another country to solve the problem of bad labour practices.

We can do this without it becoming an argument about whether trade is "good" or "bad" depending on what "side" you are on.

nathan_compton2• 1 year ago

This is so disingenuous a defense of the circus going on right now for so many reasons.

First of all, nobody in the current administration would give a shit if somehow China made a deal. The Tariffs would go back down again. The Tariffs are not contingent upon good labor laws in China or anything like that. Like seriously. Yes, the left wants better labor power and yes the left continues to understand that offshoring reduces labor power. But Trump et al are not credible as champions of the working man and this policy is not even really directed that way.

Second, even if this were a policy goal, going about it this way is, and I really can't put this any other way, fucking stupid. Even your dumbest leftist can understand that if you want to make changes to your economy you do so with some lead time and in such a way as to, you know, not empty shelves and drive up costs for the regular working people.

By all means, we should pursue a humanist trade policy that pressures developing countries to improve labor rules, human rights, democracy, etc. But to characterize this present circumstance as that is ridiculous.

rayiner3• 1 year ago

By all means, we should pursue a humanist trade policy that pressures developing countries to improve labor rules, human rights, democracy, etc. But to characterize this present circumstance as that is ridiculous.

But nobody besides Trump is going to do that, because everyone is addicted to the short term boosts of free trade. Obama talked a big game and then in office became a free trader that was pushing TPP before Trump killed it.

The reason Trump happened is because the grownups have been rowing in the wrong direction for 40 years.

FredPret2• 1 year ago

China is not only cheaper but in many cases better at manufacturing.

I sometimes deal with a Canadian vs a Chinese supplier for a component of a consumer product, and the difference in customer service, quality, and speed is stark. AND it’s cheaper. The only issue from a logistics point of view is that China is far and shipping is slow.

mk89• 1 year ago

Is Canadian quality bad? As a European I don't have much experience with stuff made in Canada, I think. At least I can't think of any...

triceratops• 1 year ago

It means a race to the bottom with a foreign country that doesn’t have our labor protections or environmental laws

But even then "better labor laws" or "stronger environmental protections" aren't among the demands being made to China.

anigbrowl12• 1 year ago

The Republican party is eagerly dismantling labor protections and environmental regulations as fast as it cand in as many jurisdictions as it can.

I remember you used to complain about the degree of corruption in your country of origin and contrast it unfavorably with the solid institutions and procedural safeguards in the US. How times have changed.

mstaoru3• 1 year ago

I'm moving internationally (from China to EU) and the quote is 2.5-3x higher than 3 months ago. Sea freight seems to be inspected at a much higher rate, and they don't recommend it, and air freight is more expensive because of much lower volume overall. Not a good time to ship your stuff. And that's when you think "I'm far away from the US and the madness does not concern me"...

tim3332• 1 year ago

The 2.5-3x higher is probably temporary while people rush to ship stuff before the tariffs. It may get much cheaper shortly.

mstaoru3• 1 year ago

Good point, but several Chinese freight forwarders say, on the contrary, the shipping lanes are empty. The "ship" costs a fixed amount, if you can make a full load, the cost is shared between parties. With LCL (less-than-container-load), I'm very dependent on the volume.

I've also seen pictures of empty roads to Yantian port circulating on LinkedIn (usually it would be completely jammed during May holidays).

spacemadness• 1 year ago

If the assumed be negative indicators for the US economy come to light, and it’s made clear that the US has committed economic suicide, now with data, there aren’t going to be many safe harbors in the world for the average person.

graeme• 1 year ago

Interesting. Inspected more regularly by who?

wing-_-nuts2• 1 year ago

This is fascinating. I wonder what impacts island nations like New Zealand are facing?

consp2• 1 year ago

If the quote is higher, doesn't that mean the demand is higher and less empty containers are available? The EU does not have an extreme tariff on most products from china, only some. I guess I'm missing something here.

h2zizzle• 1 year ago

Begging the question/speaking out of my butt: fewer empty containers may mean they're running fewer ships, not filling up the normal volume.

epistasis• 1 year ago

That's also a far different route... Has demand for additional shipping to Europe gone up because of increased demand? Is it seasonal? Does the US army's fairly incompetent police action [1][2] against Yemeni Houthis have much impact?

I'm very curious!

[1] https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/02/04/commander-of-... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/29/fighter-jet-...

bluGill13• 1 year ago

The Suez canal is very much affecting anyone in the EU and has for a lot longer than Trump has been in office. Almost no ships have been going that way since early/mid last year, preferring to go the more expensive/long way around Africa instead.

mstaoru3• 1 year ago

Well, I had two quotes: one right before the tariffs at 22 rmb/kg door to door, and one end of April, at 58 rmb/kg door to door. We shopped around quite a bit, everybody say it's crazy right now.

nonethewiser4• 1 year ago

And that's when you think "I'm far away from the US and the madness does not concern me"

But why would you ever think that?

sailfast• 1 year ago

Folks are anticipating increases in shipping due to large companies making last-minute buying decisions for the Christmas holiday instead of starting to ship things now through December. As a result, it will be very hard to find a container toward Q3 (at least this is what I'm reading across news articles)

jmyeet6• 1 year ago

There are two things I want people to remember:

1. The administration has absolutely no idea what they're doing. Don't be tempted to think this is part of some grand plan. Don't believe any narrative about how short-term pain was intentional. There's borderline or actual panic in the administration, going so far as to sideline Peter Navarro to get Trump to back down [1]; and

2. All of this is happening so the wealthiest 1000 people, who already pay almost no taxes, can pay slightly less in taxes. They've already started the rhetoric about tax cuts for average people based on the 2017 tax cuts for people below the top bracket expiring this year. The cut in the top bracket and the corporate tax rate cuts were permanent. So another likely temporary tax cut will be sold while giving away trillions to the wealthiest people on the planet.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-tariff-pause-navar...

macspoofing• 1 year ago

The administration has absolutely no idea what they're doing.

In general, I agree with your sentiment, but there are competent people in the administration. However, all of them are paralyzed because Trump can alter any plan or policy at a whim, and he insists being involved in everything. And you can see that in the interviews Bessent or even Lutnick give - where they hedge everything because they know it could change any minute. For example, there was no plan to set 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, Trump just did it out of nowhere on TruthSocial.

That's also true of foreign policy in general. Rubio and State Department have zero power at the moment. Neither the Russia-Ukraine peace plan, nor Iranian nuclear arms control, nor Gaza-Israel negotiations are going through the State Department.

All of this is happening so the wealthiest 1000 people, who already pay almost no taxes, can pay slightly less in taxes.

I disagree with that. This all happening because Trump is incompetent but also arrogant and highly opinionated. I don't think there is a nefarious plan here. Trump probably really does think that you can replace income tax with tariff revenue.

jmyeet6• 1 year ago

Trump is the culmination of the 50+ year Republican project, a project intentionally designed to transfer wealth from the poor to the rich. He's not an anomaly. He's the inevitable end product of decades of consistent insitutional destruction and corruption.

I agree that Trump is delusional about tafiffs but think abou tit: income tax is pretty much the only progressive tax left. There's serious momentum in the conservative movement to get rid of it for that reason: it's further wealth transfer to the ultra-wealthy.

It sounds like you're not seeing the bigger picture here: the wealthy view themselves as inherently better. In tech circles (including Elon and Thiel) transhumanism is popular.

What is transhumanism ultimately? it's eugenics. It's why these weirdos fill the world with their IVR fetishes, spreading their "superior" genes. It's co-opted the conservative movement, which itself is rooted in eugenics (ie white supremacy).

anigbrowl12• 1 year ago

interviews Bessent or even Lutnick give - where they hedge everything because they know it could change any minute

The problem with this is they quickly realised it's easier to BS and lie than to be honest and noncommittal. In the latter case they'd have to fess up at some point and say 'well no we didn't have a plan for that/see that coming/whatever' or admit that they simply don't know the answers to relevant questions. Instead they say one thing one day, and when Trump reverses the policy they come on TV a day or two later smirking and saying 'well this was always the plan'. Once their public statements are disconnected from consequences they realize that lying is a way to wield power and of course that quickly becomes intoxicating and addictive.

Right now it might seem to them like it's just some white lies for the greater good/to assuage public anxiety, but in my view that sort of behavior is a one-way street. I think they've already shredded whatever professional credibility they had, and when things get economically bad they'll be incapable of offering leadership or reassurance that would calm markets (in contrast to, say, Lewis Powell at the Federal Reserve). If the economic situation gets sufficiently bad, Trump will throw them to the wolves and hire in some new faces to buy time. We saw this in the first administration, every time he replaced someone the meda and Congress would grant them a honeymoon period and talk about how much better and calmer things were getting, even though this was based on desire rather than outcomes.

ChrisArchitect• 1 year ago

[dupe] More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43843821

guywithahat3• 1 year ago

Not too long ago I tried to raise money for a PCB assembly plant in the US, but couldn't raise the funding and got a "real job". Posts like these really make me wish I didn't give up lol

Workaccount22• 1 year ago

This is something I am personally mixed about, working in electronics and having had boards made both domestically and in China.

The thing is that China is just really damn good at electronics manufacturing. Their tooling is cutting edge, their workers are career electronics manufacturing workers, and their supply chain is insane.

However I do have a feeling of "if you build it, they will come". But I think it would need to rely heavily on automation. And I'm also not sure how you would deal with the waste in the US. In China the volume is high enough to have local companies that deal with all the byproduct. In the US I would imagine you would have to pay through the nose to dispose of it through some small time contractor 6 states away.

rhcom2• 1 year ago

These are the king of capabilities, like semiconductor manufacturing, that we want to have (at least some) locally for more reasons than just economics though. It seems like a national security issue.

guywithahat3• 1 year ago

I think there are some things where a lot of the silicone actually comes from the US, or the designs are static enough that domestic manufacturing could make a lot of sense. I was specifically pitching consumer GaN power supplies, which are simple enough that you can build them without your supply chain blowing up every 3 months or without having to always get the newest and greatest machinery.

Something like a smartphone would be borderline impossible to do well in the US and keep up with trends.

mystified50162• 1 year ago

About a year ago I checked out every US manufacturer I could find. Most don't offer any pricing of any kind, strictly 'call for quote'. The ones that did offer pricing either don't want small prototype runs, or charge 5-10x what China does, and with 2-3x lead time, even counting shipping.

Only one or two I looked at offered an online quote tool, and none of them came even close to the usability and functionality of PCBWay's website. The best one I found was this ridiculously overbuilt system with an embedded 3D engine and one of those shitty 200MB web apps that take 30 seconds to register a click and breaks your back button.

USA is simply not competitive with China on PCBs. For small, cash strapped business, domestic manufacture has never been an option. I expect prices will only go up and up as our entire domestic capacity is absorbed by big corps that can afford the premium. I have no idea how us little guys are supposed to get boards now.

mlyons1340• 1 year ago

It’s true US isn’t competitive but what you looked at was hobbyist PCB services which is not representative of the industry as a whole. I get the frustration but i don’t see how you can draw any conclusion from it.

teeray2• 1 year ago

I have no idea how us little guys are supposed to get boards now.

You're not supposed to. It's a backhanded way to quash all competition.

aweiland3• 1 year ago

An on shore competitor to JLCPCB would be amazing. I assume most of the work is automated as well.

nebula88043• 1 year ago

You might as well watch the entire process of how JLCPCB works and then tell me if all of that can be "automated": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljOoGyCso8s

gonzo412• 1 year ago

The Bloomberg podcast odd lots recently had an episode about this. Essentially, there's bubbles in the pipeline now. Expect Halloween and the shopping around that time to feature lots of scarcity.

dten• 1 year ago

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard (https://tower.portoptimizer.com/) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

globalise83• 1 year ago

Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?

jhickok• 1 year ago

Yeah I was wondering if those models try to smooth those bumps.

thfuran2• 1 year ago

I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.

etimberg• 1 year ago

That number for w20 will probably change. For example, when https://youtu.be/2GgcIuQ4X5k?t=324 was produced w20 was predicted to be up 0.84% YoY.

kristjansson• 1 year ago

I think its: https://volumes.portoptimizer.com/ ?

dyauspitr• 1 year ago

Predictions are based on historical data which isn’t relevant in this case.

cle3• 1 year ago

Week 9->10 2025 had a 35% drop too. And Week 9->10 2024 had a 45% drop and a 26% drop Week 16->17 2024.

Starting to wonder how significant this news really is?

dtech• 1 year ago

That is Chinese New Year, it has always a very large drop. It's very impactful but expected and yearly.

My companies reporting needs to correct for it since the date shifts on western calendar and if would mess up all reporting otherwise, so yes, this is extremely significant.

mbostleman• 1 year ago

It’s sad that these posts of relevant facts - that are only presented as such, with no judgement - are being downvoted, apparently because they don’t supportive a narrative. One of the things I’ve always loved about Hacker News was how the community was so curious about truth. I guess all good things come to an end at some point.

jimt1234• 1 year ago

This site is obviously a "hostile and political act" by the Port of LA.

atoav• 1 year ago

Turns out reality itself is a hostile and political concept if your political leadership is incompetent enough.

nilsbunger• 1 year ago

"Reality has a well-known liberal bias" - Stephen Colbert

cameldrv2• 1 year ago

There's probably an effect of people who tried as hard as they could to get their goods loaded under the wire before the tariffs took effect, and so the following week would be less, but the following week would be closer to normal.

danans2• 1 year ago

This Verge Decoder podcast interview with Flexport's CEO is a good take on the situation:

https://www.theverge.com/decoder-podcast-with-nilay-patel/64...

guywithahat3• 1 year ago

A surprising amount of LA's economy is just warehouses. This could have an interesting effect on the cost of housing in LA, which would have an effect on Phoenix, which has seen massive growth in warehouses as LA has gotten expensive

darkwizard42• 1 year ago

Housing won't be affected in LA because the issue is zoning + cost to get started. There are too many reviews blocking housing; it isn't blocked by warehouses being "more valuable" than housing in those lots

fckgw• 1 year ago

The vast amount of warehousing in SoCal is in the Inland Empire, the logistics capital of the country, not LA proper. There's very little warehousing being done in LA and there's still ample land in the IE and high desert areas. It should have zero effect on housing prices in the area, they already moved further inland since ecommerce took off 20 years ago and only accelerated since the pandemic.

spacedcowboy• 1 year ago

Doesn't seem to be affecting prices much. My best quote for moving a household's belongings via container from US (California) to the UK (Northwest) is ~$26k including insurance (which is mandatory).

energy123• 1 year ago

I don't see why it should increase the costs of shipping. Can you outline a plausible mechanism?

Schnitz• 1 year ago

That’s what winning looks like!

relwin• 1 year ago

Gamers Nexus essentially produced a 3-hr doc on how changing tariffs affect the US computer industry: "The Death of Affordable Computing | Tariffs Impact & Investigation" https://youtu.be/1W_mSOS1Qts?si=pBVt65SMqb1p-Zte . Best part is having a product manager show a spreadsheet of costs and margins and explain in real terms ($$$) what tariffs do to their business.

fnordpiglet7• 1 year ago

It’s even farmers and growers -

https://youtu.be/aCI9xlMrb1w

Seeds sourced from China - which a lot are - have skyrocketed in price.

georgehm• 1 year ago

Maybe I am being foolishly optimistic, the section in the video (~ 4:50) where it is mentioned that some giant seed corporation is staying the course betting that this thing will blow over in a quarter or so actually gives me some hope ?

_xerces_• 1 year ago

Two interesting things I took away from that were first that the uncertainty and constant changes of mind by the President on the actual rates and lack of reliable communications were almost as harmful as the tariffs. Second, that there is a "snowball effect" in that you often have to pre-pay, so you take out more loans at a worse interest rate to make your order and then if because costs went up, you order fewer items as well as being hit with a higher per-item cost.

The whole thing is a mess and shows how incompetent the current implementation is.

hathym• 1 year ago

it's called strategic uncertainty :D

Spooky23• 1 year ago

It’s why the government needs to curb and heel billionaires. A bunch of techbros who mistake money for smarts pushes an obviously dumb strategy to a pack of populist clowns and grifters.

That should not be possible. The kickback from this mania is going to be pretty extreme pain for these clowns.

trhway3• 1 year ago

The retailers need to start showing tariff charge as separate line. People have the right to to see what they voted for. Yesterday Trump frantically called Bezos when Bezos threatened to do it, and Bezos seems to have backed up (probably got some concession for that).

Edit: it is also can be treated as a consumer right to know, by analogy with food labeling), what are the major components of the price they are paying, and thus allowing for informed choice.

iAMkenough2• 1 year ago

Amazon considered it as a separate line, the White House called it un-American, Amazon stopped considering it.

silisili2• 1 year ago

Retailers and middlemen typically don't like exposing how much -they- paid for an item. Exposing tariffs would show how much things are marked up from time of landing to reaching the shelves.

sgc• 1 year ago

We need a browser extension that shows estimated tariffs based on "made in" info on the page.

mcguire8• 1 year ago

Amazon reportedly threatened that this morning.

They backed down immediately after Trump (or someone at the Whitehouse) called Bezos.

anigbrowl12• 1 year ago

Yeah, I watched that last week. Absolutely outstanding reporting, which I had not expected from a gaming channel.

Kneedler• 1 year ago

I was going to purchase a shipping container for my property in the US a few days ago, but the company I was talking with has raised their prices 70% over the quote I got 2-3 weeks prior.

kaikai• 1 year ago

Oh no, I’m in the same situation and was wondering how this would affect the quote.

nonethewiser4• 1 year ago

Wouldn't there be an excess of containers?

bluGill13• 1 year ago

No because containers are in high demand overall. While the US is importing less, stuff to the EU is taking the long way around Africa and that means more containers are needed.

hello_computer• 1 year ago

good. we have too much shit. too much noise. i grew up without most of it, and life was fine. inb4 trump ballwasher: i’d applaud regardless of party or personality.

Havoc• 1 year ago

There is a good yt channel that deciphers all shipping related news (collisions, cable cuts etc) and makes it more digestible to non-sailors like me here. Definitely recommend.

https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping

He pointed out that these stats are week on week so tend to understate how big the drop really is on a more long term scale

[not affiliated, just like the channel]

01HNNWZ0MV43FF• 1 year ago

Of all the death and terror caused by this administration, at least we might get an American build of Lua

djha-skin2• 1 year ago

Unpopular opinion: this isn't that big of a deal for most people.

Gdp, consumer index scores, all that stuff is a measure of how much poor people are willing to spend and how hard they're working. What really matters is, can these people buy a house? Can they buy eggs?

I don't know how many of them will be all that caught up that they can't buy some disposable flip-flops on Temu anymore. We need to focus more on how hard it is to live than how hard it is to import stuff.

torben-friis• 1 year ago

Well, if their business relied on reselling those flipflops they won’t be buying many eggs.

Same if they were transporting them to the store, or delivering them to a home, or…

tomcar2884• 1 year ago

i agree. but i think most people are worried about second order effects (the impact of supply chains on the whole economy) rather than whether or not you can buy 3$ shoes on temu.

throwaway894345• 1 year ago

These things are being talked about in the context of predicting a future recession, in which case it may be very difficult for people to afford housing and other essentials.

[^1]: Of course, the whole "eggs as an economic indicator" was far right propaganda to conflate the bird flu with the broader economy

Zamaamiro7• 1 year ago

It's an unpopular opinion because it's wrong.

No single aspect of the economy exists in a vacuum. Tariffs and lower shipping volumes portend thousands of small businesses potentially going under, translating to many more thousands of people losing their jobs and incomes. This has many unforeseen knock-on effects in declining economic activity.

djha-skin2• 1 year ago

Are we really subscribing to Reaganistic trickle-down economic theory now? How sure are we that those imports aren't mostly just lining the pockets of the rich?

We're measuring the wrong things. We need to measure cost of living instead of how empty or full a Port is. We don't know if these two things are correlated yet.

flustercan2• 1 year ago

People care immensely about having a job. If tariffs mean that businesses don't hire as much or do layoffs then this is a big deal for most people. The unemployment rate doesn't even need to go up that much to have a huge effect on people's general feeling about the economy.

renjimen• 1 year ago

A decent share of US food [1] and construction materials [2] are imported. So yes, this is going to impact everyone.

[1] https://www.traceone.com/resources/plm-compliance-blog/foods...

[2] https://www.nahb.org/advocacy/top-priorities/building-materi...

dowager_dan993• 1 year ago

the people this impacts aren't buying eggs let alone houses. You and I are addicted to cheap flip flops; many poor people require cheap goods - including household and food - to survive.

thrance• 1 year ago

2025, in which Americans realize Greatness is never achieved alone.

janis1234• 1 year ago

good sick of all the cheap Chinese products that break in a week and have to order another. Even the clothing seems to fade and be useless in 6 months.

BriggyDwiggs42• 1 year ago

You could always buy more expensive clothing, now you’ll be forced to

tehjoker2• 1 year ago

If I haven't bought a ps5 yet, is now the time to do it?

znpy• 1 year ago

Less traffic means less pollution, i guess it's good.

derwiki• 1 year ago

It’s Trump’s plan to save the environment

Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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