The EV Transition Is Harder Than Anyone Thinks

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-ev-transition-explained-2659602311

by jnord • 3 years ago

241 902 3 years ago

spectrum.ieee.org

jleyank2• 3 years ago

They have to deal with the metal/battery recycling problem otherwise they have to make a fleet of batteries every n years and deal with staggering landfills. Uneven distribution of raw materials in such a case will cause tensions.

paulryanrogers3• 3 years ago

Compared to the externalities of fossil fuels I suspect these challenges are easier to solve.

smt882• 3 years ago

Whether or not they're easier to solve, we haven't spent that much time trying to solve them yet.

Compare that to fossil fuels, which have had billions of dollars of research poured into them. We know what the cheapest forms of harm reduction are for fossil fuels, and they're not cheap enough even for the budgets of multiple nations.

tshaddox2• 3 years ago

Depends what you mean by "easier to solve." It's certainly not easier than not solving the externalities of fossil fuels, which is what we're currently doing. If we somehow mandated that fossil fuel externalities were solved (internalized), then perhaps we would find that solving the externalities of alternative energy sources would indeed by easier/cheaper.

code_biologist• 3 years ago

The point is that one of the externalities of EV materials production is CO2 emissions. Mining and processing the materials is incredibly fossil fuel intensive. By the time you have enough materials for a meaningful percentage of the world driving with EVs our CO2 footprint will be significantly worse than if we had focused on hybrid vehicles with small batteries.

alfor3• 3 years ago

It will be a large problem 20 years later ... in 2043 But there is already companies that do it now, used batteries are basically very high grade ore, well worth to recycle. But there is also a good change that we will have better chemistry in the next 20 years.

I think it’s a net positive, with for sure some challenges along the way, meanwhile gas cars still work and will for a long time.

tzs• 3 years ago

Assuming that everyone in the world got an EV with a 100 ft^3 battery pack, and every 5 years that battery pack was replaced with a new battery pack and the old one was sent to a landfill, and that peak population will be 10 billion people, 72 battery landfills that are 20 miles x 20 miles x 50 feet deep would be enough to last 200 years.

We will need to eventually figured out something better than disposing of batteries in landfills, but we have a long long time to figure that out.

thinkcontext2• 3 years ago

Many batteries will be reused before being recycled. After their useful life for transportation they still have most of their charge capacity, so they can be used for grid storage.

This is handy because it will allow used EVs to retain more value than otherwise.

jandrese• 3 years ago

Battery recycling is already ramping up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jim1nksFKTI

theshrike797• 3 years ago

We can recycle EV batteries up top 95% efficiency _today_.

And very very few of those even get recycled, because there's a huge 3rd party aftermarket for "expired" EV batteries.

There's also a whole industry of people who fix individual cells inside bigger batteries when the official instruction is to scrap it and get a new one for $$$$.

wnkrshm2• 3 years ago

What are the byproducts of the recycling? We can recycle gold-alloys 100% but there are cyano-compounds in the river after that.

havblue• 3 years ago

"EVs will/will not create more pollution than they eliminate."

I'm just skeptical about the heavy push for passenger EVs: while they're a small fraction of the carbon emissions pie in the world, they manage to be what we spend the most time talking about. It just seems like getting new cars has the added benefit of us buying shiny new stuff without concentrating on the heavy lifting. (Or disrupting industries that would lower gdp)

thrroowwawaaayy• 3 years ago

Transportation accounts for over one third of CO2 emissions in the U.S., and decarbonization of electricity generation, which is another third, is already well underway. It makes perfect sense why we talk a lot about decarbonization of transportation in the United States.

Karrot_Kream2• 3 years ago

Transportation accounts for a third of American CO2 generation and is the largest non-industrial source of American GHG emissions. We need to make dents here through every manner possible, including electrifying the existing modeshare, while promoting much more energy efficient modeshares like cycling and transit.

seydor2• 3 years ago

Passenger car emissions are ~8% of total CO2. Trucks etc are easier to greenify, replace with trains etc.

rr8083• 3 years ago

Exactly its especially crazy to see the huge SUV EVs. Instead of driving less, using public transport and bicycles, you can just swap to an EV.

dymk3• 3 years ago

It’s not crazy, it makes perfect sense given the reality most Americans live in. You see EV replacements for existing SUVs rather than people using public transit because… there is not good public transit for most Americans. People can’t wait for their government build public infra - they need to be able to get to the grocery store today.

kentlyons• 3 years ago

In a previous life, I learned that the fleet of all Toyota vehicles out there produced 320.5 million tons of CO2 in 2019. See line 11 of table I on pg 37. https://global.toyota/pages/global_toyota/sustainability/rep... Basically the vast majority of CO2 Toyota produces are from cars on the road.

JoshTko• 3 years ago

EVs -> no emissions in transport, 27% of US emissions. EVs drive lower battery cost and capacity needed for renewable energy adoption - 17% of total installed and 60%+ of new power generation capacity. Your skepticism is impeding the single most impactful factor in mitigating climate change.

lxe• 3 years ago

I'm betting many of the policymakers understand as much about EVs, the power grid, and global supply chains, as they do about TikTok.

uncletaco2• 3 years ago

I don't think I'll be buying an EV for at least another 10-15 years. I usually buy used and considering the best is yet to come with EVs and it will likely be in someone's hands for a few years before it's thrown on a lot for something I'd be willing to pay I'm just not seeing one for me in the near future. I'm also not looking forward to a future where buying a used car entails having to sign up for a monthly butt heater subscription.

anonkogudhyfhhf• 3 years ago

Problem is it's not just EVs that are adding the subscription and everything software cars. All cars are going in that direction

uncletaco2• 3 years ago

Well I guess I'm gonna buy a Volvo and try to maintain it for the next 2 million miles.

ttt3ts2• 3 years ago

Don't worry the butt warmer will have failed long ago in your 15 year old EV

Typed while sitting in my 20 year old pickup truck whos manual windows still work but not most of the electronics :P

Tagbert• 3 years ago

But does the passenger door swing open on left turns like my father’s pickup? That was exciting the first time that happened.

seydor2• 3 years ago

One would say it was ill-thought.

Remote working is reducing the need for having any car, and its utilization. People who are eco-conscious may rather choose to refurb an old car they use sparingly rather than buy a few new tons of common and rare metals. And most cities in europe are ill-suited for cars that need regular charging. All this infrastructure was for 26% of CO2 (before remote work).

Animats• 3 years ago

The infrastructure is harder than the vehicles. New power plants take longer to get built than new vehicles.

Electric vehicles offer opportunity for innovation, but they don't have to be innovative. The zooming Teslas and Mach-E Mustangs get the attention. But that's not where the volume is. The electric Ford Transit is just a Ford Transit with electric drive. It's boring, but useful. Commercial vehicles which make many stops, from Amazon to the U.S. Postal Service, are rapidly going electric.

The real question is, when do electric vehicles become cheaper than IC vehicles. Last year, the same vehicle in electric seems to cost about US $10,000 more. This year, the Ford E-transit is about $5000 more than the IC version. It's harder to tell for passenger vehicles, because manufacturers are treating "electric" as a premium option and dumping in all the high-markup stuff such as leather seats. At some point somebody will come out with something comparable to the Toyota Corolla at a comparable price. BYD already has, but they don't sell in the US. Then electric sales will take over.

smitty1e2• 3 years ago

I'm less inimical to the idea of an electric car than I am all of the Orwellian control mechanisms that will come with it.

Contra all of the Really Smart People who seem to view the rest of humanity as livestock, a huge swath of people don't care to be bossed around and treated like livestock by those who are (a) too full of themselves and (b) demonstrably incorrect on pretty much every issue.

Get stuffed, global elite, and leave my diesel vehicle alone.

rfrey2• 3 years ago

One really has to stretch to equate the change of prime movers in an automobile to a global conspiracy to destroy free will.

What could the conspirators do with an electric vehicle that they couldn't do with a Hummer?

tiedieconderoga2• 3 years ago

The motors and batteries are commodities...you can make a pretty good electric S-10 or Ranger with an '80s-'00s model for maybe $20-30k over the cost of the donor. Stick the batteries under the bed.

Try it, and tell us it isn't the most fun you can have on four wheels.

throwawaaarrgh5• 3 years ago

EVs are "already" cheaper on TCO. You drive it for 10 years and you save money compared to ICE due to savings on gas and maintenance. They'll possibly never going to be cheaper on sticker price.

This is going to shock people, but the days of buying a new car every 3-5 years is over. It's not going to make financial sense. Used cars will be mostly worthless due to the batteries being shit. Financing is going to be different for low income people. Potentially just fewer car owners period. (which is great actually)

subpixel• 3 years ago

Why won’t a drop-in replacement battery be a better deal than a new car after 10 or more years?

htag3• 3 years ago

This is going to shock people, but the days of buying a new car every 3-5 years is over.

The average age of a car on the road in the US is about 11 years. As that is the average age of a car on the road, it suggests the lifespan of a typical car is much longer.

I've look at the TCO of electric vehicles every year or two. The math always pencils out that it's far cheaper to keep my 4 door Japanese sedan another year, as I drive it less than 5,000 miles/yr and maintenance is minimal with that little use. I think most people trying to minimize their transportation costs would do better with a corolla, unless their drive more than average.

Of course, no one looking at minimizing their TCO buys a new car every 3-5 years.

calvinmorrison5• 3 years ago

the days of buying a new car every 3-5 years is already over. The average vehicle on the road is approaching what pennsylvania identifies as open to "Classic" registration. I gotta wonder who the first person that registered a ford windstar classic will be.

Vehicles are so damn reliable compared to the 70's that - we'd actually be closer to going full EV if cars were less reliable....

scythe2• 3 years ago

Used cars will be mostly worthless due to the batteries being shit.

Modern battery chemistry can last for 2000 cycles. Assuming you get 200 miles on a charge, that's 400000 miles. A typical ICE car doesn't last that long.

tokipin• 3 years ago

These articles always miss the most important point. People are buying EVs because they're better. That's the whole point of Tesla making attractive vehicles, aesthetically and functionally. That market pull allows for an S-curve in the technology, since it reduces market risk for investing in each increase in scale.

This is a completely different scenario than what the article suggests, which is that EVs are some kind of medicine for climate change that society is trying to have discipline about. Not so. It's a life or death situation for the auto industry, they don't have a choice. They either join the race or die. This makes most concerns about the transition irrelevant. For example, laws banning gasoline cars by 2035 are as useful as laws banning flip phones by 2015 would have been.

logifail13• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better

This is only true for people with a certain amount of spare money to pay the extra, since EVs are more expensive to purchase.

"The new EVs cost an average of $65,041 in November [2022], according to Kelley Blue Book, while gas cars averaged $48,681 that month"[0]

[0] https://www.businessinsider.com/electric-vehicles-prices-exp...

ericd3• 3 years ago

The prices have changed a lot since November 2022; Tesla became eligible for the $7,500 Federal tax credit again, and they dropped their prices significantly to qualify. Right now a base Model 3 is around $36k after tax credit.

jjoonathan• 3 years ago

EVs are more expensive for now. Manufacturers are keenly aware that most demand is at lower price points. It's a race to get there.

elihu13• 3 years ago

The Chevy Bolt is pretty cheap, especially with a rebate.

There are a lot of people who just can't afford a new car. That's a legitimate concern. EVs are gradually working their way into the used market.

EV conversion is another option that's currently only for moderately well-off people with a lot of free time, but with the right kits it could be a more routine thing.

NotYourLawyer• 3 years ago

I find it more shocking that the average gas car cost that much. Yeesh.

stickfigure6• 3 years ago

I bought a used 2013 Fiat 500e last year for $8k. It's perfect for my wife's commute (50mi roundtrip; comes home with 20% remaining charge). We plug it into household 120v overnight. It drives like a zippy little gocart.

It wouldn't be ideal for a one-car family, but as a commuter it's better and cheaper.

chaostheory2• 3 years ago

EVs cost less for maintenance in both time and money.

p1necone2• 3 years ago

I've never bought a brand new car (EV or otherwise), and probably never will. The value proposition just isn't there when cars lose double digit percentages of their value the second they're driven off the lot, and drop down to like half their initial cost or more after only a few years.

bloaf2• 3 years ago

People are buying cars because they're better than horses

This is only true for people with a certain amount of spare money to pay the extra, since cars are more expensive to purchase.

"According to Kelley Blue Book, gas cars averaged $48,681 that month" whereas horses typically cost between $1500-$10,000 https://www.joyfulequestrian.com/how-much-does-it-cost-to-bu...

AAA reports that average annual operating costs for a car are ~$8500/year https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/what-does-it-cost-to...

Whereas the average annual cost of a horse is under $4000/year https://cowgirlmagazine.com/cost-owning-horse/

NovaDudely• 3 years ago

I good example of how having less money makes things more expensive.

pwinnski2• 3 years ago

I bought my first EV by trading in my Prius and writing a $27 check. Had I paid cash, it would be have been about $7k (for a 2017 Fiat 500e in 2020).

I bought my second EV for $39,995 out the door, and then got a $7500 tax credit, reducing my net cost to $32,495. That one is a 2023 Chevy Bolt EUV.

I'm not sure which is the best car I've ever owned, but they're in positions 1 and 2 in some order.

YPCrumble• 3 years ago

As someone who doesn’t own an electric car, why are they better for the average driver?

The only thing I know about is their acceleration but that isn’t important to me personally as I prefer to drive slowly.

rfrey2• 3 years ago

Reduced maintenance costs, reduced operating costs.

DasCorCor• 3 years ago

Almost zero maintenance costs (oil changes, less brake usage, etc), cheaper to charge per mile than gasoline in most places. Can charge at home.

sroussey• 3 years ago

They have a lot fewer moving parts… like transmissions, etc.

dheera• 3 years ago

- An order of magnitude safer in terms of fires per mile

- Much quieter ride

- Much less maintainence, less moving parts, brake pads almost never need to be replaced, no transmission, no oil changes

- Internet-connectivity-related features, generally much nicer user experience

- You can use them as a mobile office, they can be camped in with the heating on overnight, there's no concept of idling and no carbon monoxide issues with sitting in an EV with the car on as long as you want

- If either your home or office has charging, you basically leave full every time

jiggawatts• 3 years ago

Having a zero pollution power source lets the car do things that would be unsafe in a normal vehicle. Preheating, or precooling is safe in an electric car but can cause dangerous accumulation of carbon monoxide if running a fossil fuel engine.

That’s just a random example.

Generally EVs are cheaper to operate, are quieter, have a lower centre of gravity, and are more spacious.

In theory they could be cheaper and more reliable, but currently Tesla makes mostly luxury models and has poor quality control. That’s just them, and isn’t anything to do with EV technology.

Other manufacturers will eventually make a cheap EV with better reliability than a Toyota.

tmn• 3 years ago

As an average car user, we can easily enumerate the somewhat significant trade offs.

Main points of difference:

Filling with gas vs charging.

Oil changes, transmission fluid changes, etc vs replacing battery in ~10(?) years.

That’s about it from what I can tell. No wrong choice. Just trade offs.

Zanni2• 3 years ago

EVs are quieter due to lack of engine noise. This is especially noticeable when paused at intersections. EVs don't "idle." There's also no engine shake, something which never bothered me in ICE cars until I started going back and forth between an EV and an ICE car. (Most) EVs have a single gear, which means you always have power when you want it, like when you want to overtake someone heading up a hill. You don't have to wait for your car to find a lower gear when you mash the accelerator. EVs don't have exhaust. Mostly not an issue for the driver but still nice. If you have a home charger, EVs start every day with a full "tank." EVs are typically have cheaper maintenance and fuel costs, which, in some cases, offsets the higher upfront cost. There are downsides too, of course, the biggest being charging times (if no home charger or road trips), range (if you travel a lot) and upfront cost, but if you can sort those, they are huge improvement. I'll never own an ICE car again.

hn_throwaway_99• 3 years ago

I in general don't like driving, and I don't understand how anyone who's ever owned an EV could ever want to go back to an ICE vehicle:

1. As others have pointed out, the maintenance is much less. Not to mention, of course, the electricity costs much less than equivalent gas.

2. The cars are just so much cleaner for an individual. No gas smell, no oil changes, etc.

3. They are much quieter.

4. Even if you drive a lot more slowly, the smooth acceleration is much more pleasurable. Plus, the quick acceleration does come in handy when you want to get out of uncomfortable situations.

rgmerk2• 3 years ago

There are a number of advantages:

* they are quieter. * they are smoother. * you may not care about performance but lots of people do like it. * they require less maintenance (which is a cost saving, sure, but also a convenience issue) * if you can charge at home you don’t have to take time to visit the gas station.

abriosi• 3 years ago

I recently bought an electric car and it is an enjoyable experience. It makes no noise, there is loads of space everywhere. I don't visit gas stations anymore, I have less stress in traffic situations; the car handles all the workload of heavy traffic. I rarely use the brakes and mostly drive using one pedal. It is by far the most comfortable car I have ever driven.

The cheery on top is its performance. It feels awesome to have a supercar available at a moments notice if you want too, although it gets normal and boring very fast. Also, it is scary to have loads of torque and you have to respect that.

Overall, electric cars offer a very good bang for the buck.

In the end, mechanically, the cars are very simple and you feel that simplicity. They feel polished and well engineered

RosanaAnaDana5• 3 years ago

Number one thing I love about mine, when I press the 'go' button, it goes.

They have a lot of power and because you don't have to bring an engine up to RPM and shift, and bring up to RPM, and shift.. and on..

That power is also instantaneous. However far down I push on the pedal, I'm at that speed basically right away.

Another huge thing, is that they are quiet. There is still a bit of road noise from wind and the physical contact of the wheels with the road. But compared with almost any typical car, its basically silent.

Also, they don't stink. You might not notice it, but your car smells. It gets on you and the people around you. My car doesn't smell like gas or exhaust or anything.

Oh and not to mention, basically nothing ever goes wrong. There is so much less to go wrong on an EV. We don't have a bunch of coolant and pumps sloshing around effectively trying to cool a giant, shaking, moving lump of iron. With out all that rattling, things just don't need as much maintenence.

r00fus6• 3 years ago

Buy a $200 inverter and you can have basic power (lights/router/modem, aquariums) in the case of a power outage. I've had to do this two weeks in a row in our third-world-power Silicon Valley.

r00fus6• 3 years ago

One other thing not mentioned - they brake faster. Like hybrids, EVs have dual brake systems - regenerative + brake pads. On an EV, the regen can be much more powerful than a hybrid since the motor/batter are larger.

losvedir• 3 years ago

If you have a garage, by far the biggest benefit is charging overnight, starting the day with a full charge, and never having to go to a gas station. If you don't have convenient home charging, I'm not sure I'd recommend an EV just yet.

We got ours in December, and the most unexpected benefit for me is sitting at stop lights, in traffic, or in a drive through. When the car is stopped, it's essentially off. No engine idling vibrations, no noise, no emissions. It's kind of peaceful. I hadn't really realized how much idling in a gas car bothered me before.

zzzeek• 3 years ago

If you enjoy having to change your oil every 3-6 months , then EVs might be disappointing because there's no oil to change. There are no transmissions, no gears (for most EVs at least), the cars are mostly silent, can't asphyxiate you in your garage, don't have to be jumped if you left the lights on all night, and you should be able to get many hundreds of thousands of miles where the car will drive mostly the same in ten years as when it was new (save for battery life decrease). Dealing with gas pumps and trying not to get gasoline drips on your shoes is a thing of the past.

thallium2052• 3 years ago

I like it because an EV is a gas vehicle. It's also propane powered vehicle. It's also a diesel. It's also solar powered. It's also natural gas. It's whatever generator you can find to plug it into at that moment in time.

In the event of economic uncertainty, the gas stations are the first to run out and begin rationing resulting in miles long lines. An EV has many, many options to keep you operating in a disaster scenario.

Plus, unlike gas cars, my EV is always fully charged ready to go every morning. How many people have a 1/4 or even an 1/8 of a gas tank sitting in their driveway right now?

They are excellent prep vehicles.

gcanyon3• 3 years ago

I rented a Tesla 3 the last time we took a trip. It has some fundamental flaws (shitty rear window visibility) that have nothing to do with it being an EV, but it fully convinced me that my next car will be electric.

It's quiet

It's fast -- you say you know, but it's not about the acceleration as much as it is the immediate response: put the pedal down, and you're accelerating. Doesn't matter if you're stopped, going 30, or going 60 -- you have speed on demand, and it changes how you drive.

I guess some people don't like it, but one pedal driving (letting the regen do the braking just by letting off the accelerator) was awesome for me: I used the brake pedal less than ten times over a week, and my gas car seems tedious to pedal now.

Not sure how to describe the rest, but it was just better. I like my gas car much less now.

thegrim33• 3 years ago

Some* people are buying EVs because they're "better". Other people, like me, have zero interest in most modern vehicles, whether EV or not. I have zero interest in a vehicle that gets software updates, or that can choose for itself to slam the breaks on, or that has the ability to upload my data for collection, or that can be remotely disabled, or that isn't built to be maintained easily in my garage, or that has giant touchscreen nonsense. I realize I might be in the minority, but that's OK.

I feel that most modern vehicles are designed and built purely to make as much money as possible, rather than to actually a good, reliable, maintainable vehicle. And it works, because the average consume either doesn't care or is easily to manipulate.

If you want to convert more people to EVs, start building some that I'm remotely interested in. That and invest into solid state batteries, I'm mostly waiting for that too. Solid state batteries would solve most of the issues with EV tech.

dboreham• 3 years ago

Monthly subscription for heated seats enters the room..

JKCalhoun6• 3 years ago

Agree. I'll be sad if all we do is simply electrify our shitty 5-ton asphalt tanks.

With the price of modern automobiles you would think the industry was absolutely ripe for disruption. If IKEA came out with an electric tuk-tuk for $4K I suspect the Big Three would lose their shit.

Hey, but I'm a dreamer.

jim-jim-jim• 3 years ago

Yeah, I'm not touching EVs until Mazda makes a dumb and cute one with physical buttons and dials.

calvinmorrison5• 3 years ago

Like I, Robot (2004) is supposed to be near-futuristic dystopian, and the one super memorable scene I think was - will smith is driving his car and then, well the Tesla Analog - US Robotics shuts him down and tries to kill him.

The government already has enough room planting bombs in cars and cutting brakes, I don't think I need a corporate overlord to have their thumbs in that.

lastofthemojito2• 3 years ago

The way the EV market has been going so far has reminded me of the NoSQL hype of the early 2000s. It suddenly became important to have "web-scale" datastores and a lot of new hotness didn't use SQL, so folks started associating NoSQL with scalability, regardless of whether some SQL databases could scale, or some non-SQL databases couldn't.

Fast-forward to the present day where I've recently overheard someone say they "want an electric car so it can drive itself". Tesla has made self-driving (for some definition of self-driving") and over-the-air updates and giant tablet entertainment screens synonymous with EVs, to the point where it seems like every major manufacturer is including those features on every new EV they launch. I'd also like to see essentially an anti-Tesla EV - a simple, good car that happens to be electric, without it being a "smartphone on wheels". Make the entertainment system a double-DIN stereo and I'll know I've found the right car :)

_ea1k10• 3 years ago

TBH, the maintainability probably isn't as bad as you've imagined. Short of full battery replacements, there isn't much on a Tesla 3 or Y that is significantly harder than other cars.

And the factory service manual is available for free. Aside from HV parts, most parts are directly orderable from the service center as well.

rootusrootus17• 3 years ago

Everyone says things like this thinking "Tesla" in their head, while in the real world there are all sorts of EVs that are just cars that happen to be electric.

amatecha7• 3 years ago

Yeah, I just drove a brand-new (16km on the odometer) Peugeot 308 for a trip in France. It was a complete piece of shit that I spent the entire trip yelling at. Always-online via 4G cellular (prompting for a system update on every shutdown and prompting me to go through their tutorial on every startup), glossy touch screens (zero analogue/physical gauges of any sort), constantly forcibly steering me back if I go near the painted line (such as when I'm trying to make extra space as I go around a driver who can't seem to stay in their own lane) which I was not able to turn off, beeping incessantly every single time I park because I am vaguely close to a curb or a random plant or small object (another thing I couldn't turn off), all controls on said touch screen with a horribly-designed UI... Oh the fuel gauge stopped working the night I was taking the car back to the rental company, gotta love that. They charged me for refilling 1/4 of the tank even though I completely refilled it - the gauge is simply faulty. I'm sure the charge will be reversed once we're done dealing with that, but you don't expect something as fundamental as the fuel level gauge to fail within ~4000km of driving. The steering wheel isn't even round, and of course because it's all "drive-by-wire" software-driven it literally feels like driving one of those arcade racing simulators, including the pedals. I don't know if new US/JP vehicles are like this but driving Peugeot and Renault rentals in EU has taught me that new cars appear to be total trash. I still can't believe people pay some tens of thousands of dollars for such atrocious computers on wheels.

themitigating5• 3 years ago

Cars barely made it to 100k miles decades ago. They didn't even have 6 whole digits on the odometer and rolling over was an event

irjustin4• 3 years ago

I think the criticism is fair - charging takes time.

I'll speak personally from my parents who are pushing 70. They purchased a Tesla because of the EV credits and overall price attractiveness.

My dad tells his friends about it because the driving experience is so much better. He presses the "gas" and it's instant and the handling is very good. He likes to say never goes to the gas station anymore.

I think it's easily arguable that you could get a lot of the same benefits of drivability and handling in say a BMW or Audi. The last one is a paradigm shift.

The way you've done things is now different, better (in that life is a bit easier). It's not yet a massive one, so I agree the numbers who are switching will be slow, but steadily it'll get there.

brightball• 3 years ago

Graphene Aluminum batteries solve the problems better than solid state at a lighter weight.

CyanLite42• 3 years ago

Recent article (forgot the link, but I’m sure it’s on google) basically said BMW, VW, and many others are abandoning solid state batteries because of its negligible performance compared to LiFePo4 and regular NMC batteries that are easier to produce and are slowly improving their density and stability.

worik• 3 years ago

I am getting an electric car, a cheap one.

It is one of the best cars I have ever driven. I like driving.

I think the very heavy battery helps.

That said, modern electric cars are given away for free (the one I'm getting is). The only thing you pay for is the battery. I found this out by pricing replacement batteries....

The whole model of car making is going to collapse if batteries become cheaper, but for now: By a battery and get a car thrown in.....

alwayslikethis2• 3 years ago

Ditto. At one point, car makers realized that if their cars lasted too long, they would not be able to sell more of them when most people had one. Modern cars have various unreliable and anti-maintenance features to make sure you are going to buy the next one in 10 years time. All these tracking is also a profit source since the data is sold.

qdog4• 3 years ago

There are a lot of custom EV conversions if you really want to control everything, probably no modern new vehicle is going to meet what you describe.

You can already buy lifepo4 cells, I've thought about making a boat, but time and money etc.

But this is about the masses, the Toyota Camry sells well, and I'm sure those same people will eat up the Toyota Camry EV when it comes out.

theshrike797• 3 years ago

Future cars will be moved forward by electric engines. That's not even debatable.

The power, reliability and efficiency are in a whole different bracket than in ICEs.

What IS up for debate is how the power for those engines is stored in the car. Currently we're going with batteries or liquid combustion fuels (PHEV and serial hybrids).

Yes, there are very specific use-cases and industries where EVs don't work today, but the tech is developing insanely fast.

fasterik3• 3 years ago

or that can choose for itself to slam the breaks on

Given the possibility that this feature could save your life or another driver/pedestrian's life, I don't see a strong objection to this. Driving is one of the deadliest activities that we tolerate as a society and the more we can do to reduce the risk the better. I agree with everything else though, I don't want an iPhone on wheels.

nindalf• 3 years ago

If you want to convert more people to <product>, start building some that I'm remotely interested in.

This is such a peak HN comment. The best part is that the author admits they’re a tiny minority. If they are a minority, isn’t it rational to ignore them and make something the majority wants?

Top HN comments will tell you all kinds of wild things about what HN commenters think are essential to succeed. For example, client software should never be written in electron and never contain telemetry if it wants to succeed. Most successful text editor used by 75% of all developers? That’s VS Code, written in electron and chock full of privacy busting telemetry.

I’m reminded of the top comment on the original thread revealing Dropbox, asking “why would I want this when I can simply use ssh + curlftpfs + git”. I’m sure many HN users are capable of doing that, and yet Dropbox found more than a few takers in the real world.

At this point I honestly believe that the top HN comment talking about a product is useful to read because it’s going to be the opposite of correct in every way.

This thread is filled with “EVs don’t work because they don’t cater to my outlier use case today”. Firstly, you’re an outlier. EVs do well for the majority whose commute is less than 300 miles. Secondly, they don’t need to cater to outliers today, they can gradually fill niches as they become more mainstream.

ano88888• 3 years ago

You made a very good point. We should have EVs without any of the other non-sense

mrjin5• 3 years ago

Battery is not even half of the problem of EV. How to charge them in minutes is the biggest problem, and no viable solution anytime soon.

nnnnc• 3 years ago

Completely agree with this.

Additionally, the risk exposure of owning an EV is pretty bad. The initial cost is extremely high, the immediate depreciation is high, fluctuating energy costs impact TCO, fast chargers are effectively more expensive than petrol here limiting long range economy, longevity data is fairly limited, there are serious difficulties getting them repaired and the complexity results in reliability issues. At this point I don't know anyone who's bought an EV who didn't eventually replace it with another vehicle, apart from one guy who has a Model S as a drive ornament and never uses it.

Seems like a poor investment. I'll stick with my 2014 Citroen which I can replace entirely for the first 20 nanoseconds of depreciation if I buy an EV. And the 5 year fuel cost is paid for by the second 20 nanoseconds of depreciation :)

FooBarWidget• 3 years ago

"Some"? Try "most". I've never seen anybody outside HN and environmental communities who think of EVs in the context of saving the environment. Indeed, everybody I know use their EVs in very environmentally-unfriendly ways such as using fast charging often.

rfwhyte• 3 years ago

I too would love a vehicle that is both energy efficient and not designed solely as a way to extract as much money from me as possible, but sadly the corporatists who run our world have decided that we can't have such things as it would mean some very rich people would get richer less fast, which is the one thing that's truly not allowed in any circumstances the world today.

Car companies know full well there's a huge market of people just like us that want exactly the vehicle you're describing, but it would make them less money than the subscriptions on wheels garbage they're forcing on us now, so get ready for a future where every car is over $100K and costs $10K a year in subscriptions.

kbos87• 3 years ago

The market always wins, and the market for EVs is about to be massive. A beautiful thing about capitalism is that when a large market exists, smart people and resources flow toward solving every discrete problem standing in the way of tapping into that opportunity. Yes, some of these challenges exist, but none of them are insurmountable.

player1234• 3 years ago

There would be a huge market for teleporters so why settle for EVs?

fsckboy• 3 years ago

I understand the point you're making, and I have heard a number of the remarkable advances in "alternative" energy technologies. But I don't think that very many people believe that if the market were left to itself the climate will solve itself.

logifail13• 3 years ago

I don't think that very many people believe that if the market were left to itself the climate will solve itself

Even if every single car across all of Europe and the USA were to magically become an EV overnight, the climate will not be "solved", although the power grid would instantaneously collapse.

China. India.

CodeWriter232• 3 years ago

Sure, don’t believe a scientific organization like the IEEE.

sbaiddn2• 3 years ago

They're not a scientific organization. They're the professional association for two specific types of engineer, electrical and electronic.

tenpies• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better.

And absurdly subsidised[1]. And I suspect this figure doesn't include the indirect subsidies, such as exemptions from certain taxes.

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1332156/average-ev-finan...

lostlogin11• 3 years ago

Oil is heavily subsidised too. And that’s before things like dumping masses of CO2 and other nastiest into the air are factored in. It’s amazing that this can just happen and the cost externalised.

More on fossils fuels as a group, but this is disturbing. https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/climate-change/energy-subsidie...

uc_banana• 3 years ago

Here in Europe, we will have to buy them because the alternatives will be banned.

Yizahi7• 3 years ago

Only new sales, and that can be and likely will be moved farther to the future. If there are almost no charging options (relative to the number of cars) even in big cities, then ban will go nowhere. E.g. if it's year 2035 and I still won't have anywhere to charge EV, then I won't buy it, bans or no.

PS: 500-1000 stations per 1000000 of people with hundreds of thousands of cars is nothing really. Sure, they can service some luxury EVs now, and that's about it.

hijinks• 3 years ago

I'm buying an EV so i never have to change my own oil again

LBJsPNS• 3 years ago

Amen brother.

eek2121• 3 years ago

I have to disagree. I absolutely have the money to buy a Tesla, but I don't. Why?

I don't want a giant button-less touch screen, for starters.

Next: I don't want to find myself stranded in my state the second I go a ways away from a major city, which is STILL an issue. (I'm almost 50, my parents are still alive. Their house is nowhere near a charging station. It is literally in the middle of nowhere)

Finally, I was close to buying a Tesla before...I wanted to do my part to help avoid Climate change. Then Elon Musk showed he was an asshole. Now I won't touch Tesla because Musk is involved. The fact that Tesla vehicles have suddenly become so pronounced in my state (A certain southeastern state that became internationally known for a school shooting yesterday) is testament to why he is doing things this way. He is just trying to drive new sales and he is seemingly succeeding by buying into republican nonsense.

Please don't be that idiot. Don't buy anything sold by Mr Musk.

Thanks.

I am waiting on Ford to ramp up the F150 electric production, however. Power my house in a power outage? Yes please. Haul what I want? Oh boyyy...

cyberax5• 3 years ago

Next: I don't want to find myself stranded in my state the second I go a ways away from a major city, which is STILL an issue.

Unless you live in one of the large northern states, you probably can charge enough for a round-trip in a station along the way: https://supercharge.info

Or you can do a nice thing and install a charger at your parents' place.

lostlogin11• 3 years ago

Next: I don't want to find myself stranded in my state the second I go a ways away from a major city, which is STILL an issue.

Plug into a normal power socket like most EV users do.

Edit: it occurs to me that the US is 120V. This can’t help.

foobazgt2• 3 years ago

I think you're getting a touch screen on all EVs, but some have more buttons than others. My general preference after having lived with buttons for decades and a touchscreen + voice command for four years is the fewer buttons the better.

Re: being stranded, I used to live in TN, and I still routinely drive through there. My hometown is practically a village in the middle of nowhere and it still has a supercharger only 30mi from it. I'm having a hard time believing you can get "stranded" anywhere in TN. In the incredibly unlikely absolute worst case, pull out your mobile charger and charge from an RV or 120V outlet.

Re: Musk, I didn't like his antics when when I bought my 3 four years ago, and I liked his behavior even less when I bought my Y this year. If I didn't patronize businesses with executives who behaved in ways I didn't agree with, there would be no one left for me to do business with.

Good luck with the Lightning! Ford's projecting they will lose $3B on EVs this year, but I hope they pull through.

qwerpy2• 3 years ago

It's funny how I'm sure we're both individually reasonable people but we have wildly opposite points of view on pretty much everything you said. I drive a Model Y and consider it the best possible car regardless of price for me and my family.

I don't want a giant button-less touch screen, for starters.

Eh. I'm neutral on this. In some ways it's awesome, like when I want to orient myself on a map or scroll through my music options. In other ways I wish I didn't have to fumble around in a nested window to change climate settings. If Teslas had a few more physical buttons but kept the huge screen I'd be happy.

Range anxiety, parents live nowhere near a charging station

I've gone on so many road trips and never once got into an iffy situation. 320 mile range gets you a lot of places. My parents also live two hours away from where I live (Seattle area), but there are superchargers on the route there and a couple of level 2 charging stations closer to their house. And I put in a level 2 charger at their house, so I can always leave with a full "tank".

Elon

I'm in WA state, which is as blue as it gets. Despite that, Teslas everywhere. Some of my friends who are die hard Democrats (or even further left), still happy Tesla owners. For me, life is too short to filter everything I do through a political lens.

Although if I wasn't already in love with the cybertruck I would be considering a F150 lightning, so I guess we have that in common.

syntheweave• 3 years ago

I agree, it's a "linear extrapolation of business as usual" assessment, the kind that Tony Seba calls out in his talks on disruption.

The future of EVs isn't even "battery electric car" so much as it is "new models of transportation". Tesla's business model was in the classic mode of consumer tech where it targets enthusiasts at a premium. The broader auto market, though, is getting nibbled away by a combo of new communication and transport services for each vertical - you can buy or rent an e-bike, hail a Waymo, have Wal-Mart deliver by drone, as well as "just" do more from home, online, and save a trip. Some of these things are early in their deployment but largely proven, others are already widespread but with room to go further.

In a disrupted market, you can't pick winners easily, but you should always bet on the new asset classes, because the alternative is a ghoulish non-future.

chaostheory2• 3 years ago

The other point these people are missing is that this allows for flexibility in choosing our fuel. Anything that can be converted into electricity (gasoline, coal, nuclear) can power an EV. It’s not limited to green power sources.

crims0n2• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better

Define “better”? I need something to haul around a family of eight with enough towing capacity to add some fun to those trips. They don’t even make an EV that ticks those boxes, let alone something “better”.

nradov4• 3 years ago

Didn't you hear? People aren't supposed to have large families anymore due to the "carbon footprint" or something.

rootusrootus17• 3 years ago

I need something to haul around a family of eight with enough towing capacity to add some fun to those trips.

I can't decide if this is trolling or not. I mean, it's an EV thread, so this kind of wild edge case gets repeated like it's everyone's use pattern instead of the 1 in a million case it really is.

Assuming it's true, there are damn few ICE vehicles that suit your needs either. You're looking at a full size (HD truck size) van. Chevy Express 3500 or something along those lines.

Though the few people I know that are in a remotely similar situation break it into two cars rather than try to find an 8 passenger daily driver.

HDThoreaun3• 3 years ago

I think you need a smaller family.

alvah2• 3 years ago

I like driving, and my next car will most likely be an EV, not because it's "better' (whatever that means), but because the Australian Taxation Office has modified the treatment of EVs to make buying anything else financially stupid (if you buy your car through a business entity).

Personally I'd rather have a PHEV with ~50km EV-only range at freeway speeds, which would mean using EV-only for ~90% of my driving, while being able to use petrol for towing & longer trips, but (a) there are none available yet with a sensible price / performance mix (in Australia at least), and (b) the ATO has already indicated they will not continue to treat PHEVs favourably in the long-term.

pugz2• 3 years ago

I'm also Australian and have ordered an EV a few months ago because of the FBT incentives. You're right that there's an extremely limited selection of vehicles in Australia. Hopefully that changes with the new favourable tax regime.

Can you elaborate on (b)? I hadn't read anything that indicated PHEVs are out of favour, but I haven't paid attention since the initial flurry of news.

ck2• 3 years ago

As someone who has to walk/ride next to an endless stream of filthy cars and trucks daily, I cannot wait for the road to be at least 50% EV, but not sure if it will happen in my lifetime.

Doesn't solve the fine dust brake particles flying around at every intersection (many with asbestos) but it will radically reduce diesel particulates and other exhaust nastiness.

ozzydave• 3 years ago

Should help with brake dust too, EVs will only use friction brakes when regenerating won’t slow the car enough, which isn’t common.

thayne3• 3 years ago

Better in some ways, worse in others. If you are just driving around town, plugging in at night is probably better than having to fill up at a gas station. If you are driving your family, including young children halfway across the country to visit in-laws, having to stop for hours while waiting for your car to charge is much, much worse. Even if charging stations become ubiquitous.

ugh123• 3 years ago

having to stop for hours while waiting for your car to charge is much, much worse

So will this never get any better? Will it still take hours to charge, 5 years from now? What was it like 5 years ago?

brewdad10• 3 years ago

Car rentals are a thing for that once a year road trip. I’m making the assumption your aren’t driving 1500 miles each way every other weekend.

mperham• 3 years ago

Every new EV sold today can charge from 0% to 80% in an hour. You can drive 250 miles before lunch and 250 after.

surrealize2• 3 years ago

having to stop for hours while waiting for your car to charge is much, much worse

Have you done this? I picture burning some kid-energy during those breaks. I'm genuinely curious about how that ends up impacting the trip experience.

lsh123• 3 years ago

“People are buying EVs because they are better…”

Right, exactly the reason why governments around the world first try to subsidize EVs through various schemes (tax rebates, discounts, etc), and then it doesn’t work - threaten to stop non-EV sales in 10 years. All of that because the EVs are a better product that consumers are screaming for. Right.

2muchcoffeeman3• 3 years ago

This is not a good argument. EVs are expensive. But having electric vehicles clearly has an advantage. And it may be in the government’s interest to drive adoption.

However I disagree with the GP’s statement that people are not buying them as a solution to climate change. People definitely believe they are part of the solution. I’ve heard of people installing induction stoves to remove their reliance on gas.

pornel4• 3 years ago

This is normal to increase supply. They're expensive partly because they're produced in smaller volumes. Economies of scale haven't made them cheap yet, so subsidies are needed to break this chicken-egg problem.

Rebates also help overcome the higher upfront cost. The total cost of ownership of EVs can be lower than an ICE car due to cheaper energy and low maintenance, but the upfront cost is a barrier.

And then there's the fact that a lot of people don't know how good EVs are, so they base their purchasing decisions on myths and assumptions, and need a push to even try them.

baxtr2• 3 years ago

We had a Tesla Y for 6 months and returned it. I really wanted to me to keep the car. But in the end we couldn’t.

The range was simply not good enough for longer trips. We returned it for a normal car and are quite happy with the range.

brewdad10• 3 years ago

Are you a single car family? Until battery tech allows for either huge range or recharging as quickly as a gas car, I still see the utility in owning an EV for commuting and around town and a gas car for road trips. It doesn’t have to be either/or for most.

aktuel• 3 years ago

For most people on the planet who drive gasoline cars ATM, EVs are still too expensive and impractical.

unixhero• 3 years ago

No. Most Buy electric vehicles because operating cost/cost of ownership year on year is 70%-80% lower than internal combustion engines.

paulmendoza• 3 years ago

Yes, exactly!

drvdevd• 3 years ago

I can say I read about 1/4 of the way through the article and although I’m interested in the authors research, I did get the feeling the author hadn’t actually driven an EV - which may not be true, but I agree the author didn’t touch on the idea that EVs may simply offer a superior driving experience.

paganel• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better.

You should have added "people with money". Regular people don't have the luxury of paying up to 50% more for a car that often times is inferior to what they currently have.

jjav11• 3 years ago

For example, laws banning gasoline cars by 2035 are as useful as laws banning flip phones by 2015 would have been.

If that were true, there wouldn't be any such laws in discussions and in the books. Just like there never was a law to ban flip phones, people just migrated on their own.

There are lots of incentives to push people to EVs such as federal tax breaks and HOV lane access.

cm2187• 3 years ago

you wouldn't need legislation to ban ICE if electric vehicles were better for everyone. Many people need range. Or cheap cars.

yafbum• 3 years ago

As an EV owner, I completely agree that they are better cars to drive for most people. Handles better, cheaper to run, more fun to drive, and range isn't an issue unless you drive all day to far places.

But

Until the infrastructure and manufacturing scale are bootstrapped, they can only reasonably compete with the help of subsidies.

And

You can also say that ICE cars, as a component of the hydrocarbon industry, get a lot of subsidy from the insane amounts of military cost deployed to ensure a steady oil supply.

Altogether societal beliefs that get people elected are having a strong influence in the way things go. In spite of EVs being better cars, if society decided to tilt back the balance of support towards ICEs, I think the market would snap back pretty quickly.

bmitc2• 3 years ago

That's the whole point of Tesla making attractive vehicles, aesthetically and functionally.

Aesthetics are one thing, although I find Teslas to be quite boring and even outdated, but the claim regarding Tesla's functionality is heavily debatable. Tesla is basically rediscovering why cars are the way they are and also struggling with quality.

simondotau4• 3 years ago

and also struggling with quality.

The problem is that the media's endless obsession with Tesla means that criticism of their products become mainstream news, whereas criticisms of the average Toyota or Ford are never more than bullet points in car reviews. A few key points which contradict the assertion of Tesla "struggling with quality":

• Tesla products consistently get high satisfaction ratings by their customers. [0] (Perhaps panel gap consistency isn't as high on the list of customer importance as car reviewers think it is?)

• Tesla products have been consistently rated as among the safest cars on the road with respect to crash-worthiness. Most notably the recent assessment of the Model Y by Euro NCAP. [1] Maybe the panel gaps aren't perfect, but the chassis under the skin seems to have been well engineered.

• Toyota, the supposed world leaders in car manufacturing, recently admitted — in public no less — that the Model Y is "truly a work of art". [2]

[0] https://electrek.co/2022/06/15/tesla-tops-list-most-satisfie...

[1] https://cleantechnica.com/2022/10/01/the-tesla-model-y-earne...

[2] https://thedriven.io/2023/03/01/toyota-admits-tesla-model-y-...

DrBazza4• 3 years ago

"Better" how? I want a range the same as petrol car, with a recharging time the same as it takes me to pump gasoline into the tank. Until I have that, EVs aren't 'better' for me in any way. I drive 300 miles point to point several times a month and with an EV the journey time is an hour longer, and definitely not 'better'. That's not to say that EVs won't improve, but by 2035 will we have 700 mile range EVs that charge to 100% in 3-4 minutes?

The chassis, interior, and "technology" in combustion engine cars is largely the same for every manufacturer that produce EV + internal combustion because of economies of scale. So that's not a unique selling point.

mrjin5• 3 years ago

What you want might never happen, especially the charging time part. If you pull out a calculator, you will find out the current required （under domestic voltage) to charge a 80kWh battery in 2 hours is already staggering. In 3-4 minutes at your home? I don't see it anytime soon.

concordDance2• 3 years ago

Current Teslas will get you 50% charge in half an hour. Is adding 25 mins to your 5 hour journey really that big a deal?

bjarneh2• 3 years ago

I drive 300 miles point to point several times a month

EV's won't be better for you any time soon; unless the solid state batteries with a higher energy density become the norm. For long road trips, ICE vehicles are more convenient. That being said; I've drive an electric car (Model S) twice from Norway to Spain (3700 km ~ 2300 miles), so it's definitely doable, but it does add time compared to a doing the same trip with a regular ICE car. At highway speeds you can probably add 1 hour per every 2-3 hours of driving.

jnsaff26• 3 years ago

300 miles, this is like 5-6 hours? You don't want to take a break for 15 minutes to go the bathroom and get a bite? That is all you need to add during your drive if you start with a fully charged battery. It can also be done at pretty much any point besides the first and last 50 miles.

magicalhippo3• 3 years ago

"Better" how?

Several metrics. Clearly the only ones you care about is maximum range and minimal recharge/refuel time. But for many others there are other metrics that are more important, where a BEV is better.

For example, for us, being able to recharge at home is a major plus. It's been 6 months since we used a public charger, and our car is used daily. Especially my SO appreciates this, as she hated having to fill up with gas at the end of the day rather than going straight home to sleep. Not to mention it's way cheaper than gas, at least here.

Noise is another one. In slow moving traffic, it's so nice and quiet. We got an ICE rental last year while our car was being serviced (got hit by someone who didn't honor our right-of-way), and we'd completely forgotten how noisy (and stinky) an ICE car is.

Just some examples. Not saying BEVs are perfect, but range isn't the only metric that matters for everyone.

The chassis, interior, and "technology" in combustion engine cars is largely the same for every manufacturer that produce EV + internal combustion because of economies of scale.

Precisely why I'm looking at BEV's that don't have an ICE variant. So much better with a pure BEV design.

tuatoru• 3 years ago

I want a range the same as petrol car, with a recharging time the same as it takes me to pump gasoline into the tank.

The "recharging time" part is easily achievable with battery swapping, which is already big in China. The luxury car maker Nio is introducing it to Europe, Norway first.

Battery swapping also reduces the sticker price of cars. You don't pay for the battery up front; you pay for it over the lifetime of the car in swap fees. The advantage is if you don't need much range for the next week or so, you can choose an old partly used-up battery pack for a lower price than a brand new one.

Range is more difficult, but there are grounds for optimism that this won't be so much of a problem in 2035.

1. https://www.nio.com/blog/power-swapping-europe

Edit: Ample[2] is working with manufacturers in the west to try to create a "gas station" industry model for battery swapping, where any manufacturer's batteries work with any manufacturer's cars.

2. https://ample.com/

basisword2• 3 years ago

> People are buying EVs because they're better. That's the whole point of Tesla making attractive vehicles, aesthetically and functionally.

As someone who rode in a Tesla Model Y for the first time last week I disagree. It was horrible. Inside it was very spacious but felt plasticky and cold (I did like the glass roof through). The worst bit though was the ride. Every small bump was felt like a pothole. And within five minutes I felt motion sickness due to the persistent bouncing around. I can’t say anything about drivability (this was 30mins in an Uber) but if I see my Uber driver is in a Model Y next time, I’ll happily cancel and wait for someone else.

rob74• 3 years ago

All of this has less to do with fundamental problems with electric vehicles and more to do with your opinion on a particular car (fortunately there are other electric car makers besides Tesla) and the driving style of your driver (granted, the stronger acceleration of an EV combined with an aggressive driving style or jerky steering can lead to a bad experience for passengers).

jesterson• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better.

No, they are not. It may be for some particular use cases, but generalisation is naturally bad idea.

Objectively they are vastly inferior to combustion engine cars (unless we bring Tesla to comparison). Low mileage, slow refuelling, very low lifetime. Slow acceleration.

If they were better as you state, governments wouldn't come with all sorts of subsidies to coerce people into buying EV. Market would correct itself and combustion engines would be a part of the past. But it's not happening, and I assert would never happen in future.

peoplefromibiza5• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better

Disclaimer: I am ignoring the environmental implications here.

Arguably they are not from many different POVs.

They are better for car makers, they can market them at any price they like and States all over the globe are subsidizing them, so that people can afford them.

In my Country buying an EV means paying 33% more for the same exact car, but with less autonomy, which is not a great proposition for the majority of the people living here that need a car.

The real solution would be removing cars from the streets as much as we can, which is about 50% of them more or less.

To follow on your analogy: saving car industry by switching to EVs would be like saving horse carriage industry by putting an engine on them in 1920.

oxfordmale3• 3 years ago

Ignoring the hype, Tesla cars aren't better objectively from a purely functional approach. If I fill my current vehicle with diesel, I can drive 500 miles, fill up the tank in less than 15 minutes and drive back. With a Tesla or any other EV, I will spend several hours at charging points. EVs are great for local rat runs to the supermarket or nearby restaurants. However, they are still painful if you want to travel more than 100 miles.

Battery technology improvements will arrive. However, it takes time to productionise research prototypes.

During one of my holidays, I drove a self-charge BMW rental. It technically could still be sold after 2035. However, it had an electric range of less than 50 km before it switched to petrol. Car manufacturers will lobby for such loopholes to be allowed well beyond 2035.

alkonaut• 3 years ago

Tesla cars aren't better objectively from a purely functional approach.

I think this isn't as clear cut as it might sound. It depends on the usage pattern, local fuel cost etc. I drive a diesel too, but my next car will be an EV.

If you have cheap gas and/or regularly travel so far you need to charge on the road, then both the economy and convenience goes down the drain very quickly.

But if like me you have electricity at $0.10/kWh, you have 3x25A wires to your house, you can charge in your driveway, you very rarely need to charge on the road, and the diesel price is $10 per US gallon then the economy and convenience is completely different and much more favors EV.

jnsaff26• 3 years ago

This is your uninformed opinion.

I own one, I have never spent more than an hour waiting for any charge. The waiting time is also not wasted, I'll go eat or work on the laptop. Cumulatively over the year I have definitely spent less waiting at a charging station than I did with the fossil car I had previously. Most of the time it's just charged itself overnight when I slept.

It is SO MUCH CHEAPER to drive the EV than it is the ICE. Fuel cost ALONE pays for the monthly payments. Let alone having a modern car, better ergonomics, etc.

benj111• 3 years ago

I disagree that laws banning IC cars are useless.

It forces car companies to plan for a certain future, not a possible one. That leads to an increased line up of cars for consumers, increases competition allowing consumers to afford those cars. It also forces everyone to thing about charging infrastructure etc.

andrepd4• 3 years ago

which is that EVs are some kind of medicine for climate change that society is trying to have discipline about

The obvious point, of course, is that EVs will not solve climate change or anything close. Mass automobile ownership has 99 problems, of which EVs solve 1. The key to better quality of life, as well as stronger mitigation of climate change, is boring stuff like trains and trams and bike lanes and walkable cities.

Cars are great (1) for rural areas and (2) when they are at maximum occupancy. Anywhere else, especially cities, and they are a disaster at almost any level you can think of.

ddevault3• 3 years ago

I mean the bigger issue is that cars and trucks aren't going away and EVs are clearly important, but the much more important problem is investing in public transit, especially in the United States. We don't need everyone to "transition" to EVs -- we need everyone to transition to trains.

mwcampbell2• 3 years ago

This comment seems at odds with one you posted yesterday, which said that individual responsibility for climate change doesn't extend beyond the voting booth. But unless I'm misunderstanding this latest comment, it suggests that we individuals are wrong to want private transportation, that we should be happy with taking whatever public transportation is available and walking the rest of the way. Even when public transportation is expanded as you say it should be, that still won't be the same as taking a car all the way from one building to another. Assuming that the point is to put an end to the negative impact of private transportation on the climate, this suggests that we are in fact responsible for changing our lifestyle to address climate change. Am I misunderstanding?

timcobb• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better

How are they better? Not obvious at all to me.

HDThoreaun3• 3 years ago

No gas stations, huge in cold climates. Instant acceleration which is physically impossible in ICE cars. Quite and no exhaust, so you can run them in a garage for preheating/cooling. Electricity is cheaper than gas. Less maintenance.

A lot of the advantages are dependant on a garage and mostly using the car to get around town and not road trips. If those don't apply to you then yea ICE cars are probably better.

TRiG_Ireland• 3 years ago

EV's are not a solution to climate change. They don't exist to save the planet, or humanity. They exist to save the car industry.

Reason0773• 3 years ago

"laws banning gasoline cars by 2035 are as useful as laws banning flip phones by 2015 would have been."

These laws serve to create certainty around boardroom tables, which helps speed up investment decisions. For an automotive industry executive, it's easier to commit billions to convert your factories to producing EVs when you're not bothered by nagging "but what if there is still demand for combustion vehicles in the 2030s?" questions.

gitfan86• 3 years ago

The executives get 90%+ of their compensation before 2035. So they care very little about the health of the company in 2035. What this means in practice is that companies like GM will say "We are going electric very soon" but not actually accomplish much. Here is an article from 2012. You can find very similar ones every 2 years since then. https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-gm-evs/gm-aims-to-build-5...

Hamuko• 3 years ago

That's the whole point of Tesla making attractive vehicles, aesthetically and functionally.

Could've fooled me. Firstly almost all Teslas look like ugly frogs to me. And a Tesla Model S was also the first time I've noticed a car have misaligned front and rear doors while walking past a car.

I'm also not sure about the functionally part, unless it's just "electric motors are nice". I still see Tesla owners complain about the lack of CarPlay. Then there's the various issues that have come up. The ones that I remember: seatbelts falling off, steering wheels falling off, doorhandles breaking, doorhandles being inaccessible due to ice buildup, non-automotive LCD panels breaking inside hot/cold cars, and infotainment system bricking eMMC chips due to excessive logging. The self-driving features also look suspect, with some cars being unable to parallel park themselves, causing some weird behaviour on road, or crashing into obstacles when using the summoning.

esalman5• 3 years ago

A Tesla is not attractive to me, neither aesthetically or functionally. I find my Corolla more attractive, for obvious reasons.

Gordonjcp3• 3 years ago

That's the whole point of Tesla making attractive vehicles, aesthetically and functionally.

They're not, though. They make cheap plasticky ugly cars with an interior fit and finish on a par with 1990s Eastern Bloc cars, and expect you to somehow cope with a massive touchscreen while trying to drive, and then charge "proper car" prices.

JohnFen2• 3 years ago

People are buying EVs because they're better.

Doesn't this depend on the criteria by which you're measuring "better"? Personally, aside from reduced climate impact, they aren't better on any any count that matters to me, and are worse on a few.

PaulHoule• 3 years ago

For some people range matters. It’s particularly an issue for the electric trucks that Detroit is making big noises about.

For regulators EVs have been a deal with the devil since they are driving affordable and efficient cars (e.g. Toyota Corolla class) out of the market. in exchange for big promises about the EV future, Detroit is free to sell all the oversized trucks and SUVS they want today.

0xbadcafebee3• 3 years ago

Those of us who understand how EVs work have been saying this for years. I think we all hope everything magically gets solved simultaneously to make all the deadlines work. I expect most of us know it probably won't actually work, but we also don't want anything to stop us trying, so we just... keep moving forward. I think we also hope nobody tells the consumers that they're in for at least a decade or more where everything is terrible, or they might not buy the cars; none of this works if they don't buy the cars.

Based on USGov estimates, we need to increase lithium access by 2.5x every year for 18 years. We need something like 10x the grid capacity to serve the new power demands (and that's not considering that, for example, most green energy supply fluctuates). Land still has to be acquired to build out all the new infrastructure. Supply lines need to be increased and made robust enough to build all the cars without more delays. Skilled workers need to be added to service the new industry demands. And then we have to hope somehow that all the industry EVs are replacing get new jobs and don't depress the economy, hurting EV sales/investment. Oh, and probably at least half of all new EV infra funding is based on robust credit markets.

qaq• 3 years ago

Where is that 10X coming from ? Americans drive 14,109,317,259 km per day which would be 2821 GWh vs 11616 GWh total daily consumption. Considering you are charging mostly at night I have no clue where you are getting 10X from. For the price of COVID response you could've outfitted every US household with 20K solar setup a few times over.

oittaa5• 3 years ago

Where is that 10X coming from ?

He is lying like every other oil shill in this thread. I'm quite surprised how many of them always come out every time an EV or other clean energy related article is posted.

There's an interesting video from "Climate Town" explaining how these troll accounts work: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOi05zDO4yw

0xbadcafebee3• 3 years ago

Total vehicle miles on USA roads for 2019 was 3.26 trillion, or 5,246,461,440,000 km. (https://www.statista.com/statistics/185579/us-vehicle-miles-...) (https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10315)

That's 371 times more than your estimate.

Firstly, there is significantly less green energy available at night, when everything is supposed to be charging. The DoE wants 45% of all energy to be generated from solar. Add to that cloudy days, time of year, etc, and solar will need to be supplanted by lots of other energy sources. We need more capacity even if we don't use it all at once. (And don't count on those other sources being steady: winds vary, geothermal isn't very efficient, hydropower varies with climate) There is talk of rolling out more pumped hydro, but it isn't feasible everywhere, and it's not apparent if enough can be provided to cover extended lulls in green energy.

Second, passenger cars are just one part of the market, another huge part is trucking and fleets (as the road-miles estimate shows). There are several metric shit-tons of money to be made converting trucks to EV. All those trucks are gonna need a lot of power, distributed all over the country.

Third, as more coal/gas/non-renewable energy markets spin down, we need new green energy markets to cover lost capacity. That's not just "energy going over the wires", it's land, new construction, new interconnects, depots, etc.

Fourth, the capacity has to be increased sort of everywhere, to effectively replace gas stations in addition to providing more capacity in dense housing arrangements (40% of Americans live in apartments). This means more power runs to more places - not just gas stations/depots, but also throughout urban and residential areas. Gas and diesel today can be transported, but all that transportation needs to be supplanted with both storage and transmission of energy; imagine every gas station and apartment building having additional power run to it and more chargers.

At peak, to replace ICE with EV for all markets, we will need closer to 10GWh, just for the transportation segment being replaced. I don't think anyone has really explained to the public how big this thing is going to be.

dkjaudyeqooe• 3 years ago

Your comment reads like market dynamics and incentives, general corporate capacity and human ingenuity don't exist.

karaterobot2• 3 years ago

I'm shopping for a car now. I want to buy an EV in principle, but there aren't any specific EVs I want to buy. I'm a highly motivated buyer, completely sold on the benefits, but there just isn't anything that meets my requirements. So for all intents and purposes I'm tallied in the same column as someone who thinks EVs will destroy the power grid and ruin the auto industry.

MobileVet• 3 years ago

Outside of range… what requirements are you not able to fill? There are a ton of vehicles in the US now at a variety of price points and trim levels. I am honestly curious what you are looking for that you can’t find

freetime22• 3 years ago

I'm not the parent, but feel the same way. My requirements are basically a minivan (lots of space for family + cargo and definitely appreciate the sliding doors), all-wheel drive, and costs under $50K. I'm not in any rush to buy a new car though, so hopefully by the time I am looking for my next car there will be some EV options available. The VW ID Buzz looks interesting, but not available in our market and I'm skeptical that the three-row, AWD version will priced under $50k if/when it is released here.

On the other end of the spectrum we have an ultra-compact "kei" car that cost under $20,000, also AWD. Nissan has released the Sakura EV which gets close on price (after incentives), but still no AWD option. We will probably be replacing this car soon, and sadly it doesn't look we will be replacing it with an EV. But at 47 mpg for a standard ICE engine, and we also don't put that many miles on it, I also don't feel too guilty about it.

karaterobot2• 3 years ago

My biggest requirements are around dimensions: I need it to fit in my narrow garage, and I need it to have a certain amount of ground clearance. I also need 4WD or AWD just to get off my property in the winter. Price is also a factor, up to a point.

elihu13• 3 years ago

The transition to luxury EVs is hard. The transition to EVs is less hard. Things get easier if you throw out some of the requirements that we didn't need in the first place.

For instance, we don't need cobalt to make batteries. LFP cells are fine, though they may need extra insulation and heating/cooling systems in cold weather.

We don't need copper for the main power cables. Aluminum is fine as long as you can properly engineer the connectors.

For that matter, we don't need copper for the motor windings either. Aluminum could work there too, it's just that the motor will tend to be physically larger and less powerful.

We don't need rare earths for permanent magnets, though again this means a bulkier and less powerful motor (unless you go with induction, but induction motors aren't as efficient as permanent magnet motors).

We don't need cars with 300 mile range batteries. We /do/ need cars to be able to make long trips in a timely fashion, but that can be addressed by increasing charge station availability or (what would be much better) electrifying our major highways so that vehicles don't even need to stop to recharge. If the average car has "only" 100 miles of range rather than 200 miles, that translates to being able to make a lot more cars with the same amount of batteries, and the cars can be a lot lighter.

Most people buying Rivians and Lightnings and electric Hummers are wasting resources that could have gone towards building three or four boring sedans or minivans. Some people really do need trucks for what they do, but we could adopt policies that discourage truck ownership rather than encourage it (e.g. CDL requirement for vehicles with more than a certain power/weight, get rid of the chicken tax to improve availability of smaller trucks, add visibility regulations to prohibit comically tall grills).

zamnos8• 3 years ago

Honestly even sedans and minivans are big when you consider that the majority of trips are taken by one person, the driver. EV Smartcars and Fiat 500's should be where it's at. And yet they don't even exist. The electric Fiat 500 was discontinued. So as much as I agree with you, the market has spoken, and, well, we're wrong.

The transition to luxury EVs is easier than the people's EV, because luxury car buyers spend more money on their cars. This means you can spend more money on the pieces that comprise the car, on super efficient motors and high capacity batteries using rare materials, and position yourself at the upper end of the segment. Those customer will scarecly blink at the idea that they need to spend $50k to rewire the neighborhood power distro point to add 600 amps so they, and 9 of their neighbors, can have 60 amp circuit with 48 amp chargers on them, and then be able to swallow a $7k charger install to rewire their whole garage as well.

Meanwhile, an apartment dwelling people's EV owner might not even have an assigned spot in the shared complex carports, never mind afford a couple hundred to install hardware to get an at home charger in a shared garage becase only half of Americans can even afford an emergency $500 bill. People buy cars based on what they want, and only secondarily based on what they can afford (otherwise auto financing wouldn't be a thing). Selling a small functional EV? Well, just ask Nissan how well the Leaf is doing and compare that to Tesla's sales numbers.

elihu13• 3 years ago

I think Arcimoto has the right idea. (The company itself though seems to be in a financially precarious position.)

fomine34• 3 years ago

It's sad that EV smart are now looks like a random non-compact EV. https://ev-database.org/car/1667/Smart-1 https://www.motor1.com/news/658590/smart-3-crossover-debut-s...

wnkrshm2• 3 years ago

I live in a German university town and there is not charging port I could use in any paid-for parking garage within 1km of my apartment (or in the entire city that I know of).

EVs for now are a thing for people who own houses.

dahfizz• 3 years ago

Nobody would buy those cars.

We already have the Mitsubishi mirage, and the bmw 3 series easily outsells it. Most people don't get the cheapest car they can, they get the nicest car they can.

gibspaulding3• 3 years ago

I'd buy that car, and so would lots of people like me!

The problem of course is that we wouldn't buy them new, we'd wait 5 to 10 years and buy them even cheaper used, which in the eyes of manufacturs is basically the same thing.

ryukafalz4• 3 years ago

or (what would be much better) electrifying our major highways so that vehicles don't even need to stop to recharge

Had to stop there. We already can't maintain all the road infrastructure that's already out there before it deteriorates. Adding electrification to any substantial portion of that would not be cheap or simple.

elihu13• 3 years ago

What's your benchmark for cheap and simple? There's a system being tested in Sweden that uses electrified rails embedded in slots in the road surface. Cars or trucks can have devices that drop into the slots and make electrical contact. It's not terribly complicated, though I don't know the specific details of how well it's performing.

There are also systems with overhead lines that are about half the cost of slots in the road, but they're only really usable by trucks because the cables have to be high enough for a truck to pass under.

The cost of petroleum fuels plus the environmental costs of CO2 emissions are themselves huge costs and drags on our economy and quality of life. Our options are: keep burning fossil fuels until they run out, transition to electric vehicles in a reasonably scalable way, or do away with cars entirely. Transitioning to EVs seems like the best available option to me, and appropriate infrastructure will make that transition much easier. If we can cut the average battery size in half by having electrified highways, then that's probably worth it.

scythe2• 3 years ago

We don't need rare earths for permanent magnets, though again this means a bulkier and less powerful motor

It sure would be nice if there was a breakthrough in producing rare-earth-free magnetic materials:

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/advs.202204...

stetrain2• 3 years ago

or (what would be much better) electrifying our major highways so that vehicles don't even need to stop to recharge.

Man, electrifying 8-lane highways everywhere sounds like a lot of work and maintenance.

What if instead, we built a special electric road with just two lanes, which means you only need to electrify one lane in each direction.

We want those cars to move fast, so let's make the lanes out of metal and use metal wheels on the cars. By making the lane actually a set of guide rails for the metal wheels, the cars can autonomously stay in their lane at high speed without special computer control.

Then, you could make each vehicle larger, so that you are efficiently using the capacity of each lane. These larger vehicles could autonomously follow each other at very close distances on the guide rails.

I bet such a system of two-lane, electrified, high-speed, autonomous-steering high capacity vehicles could move as many people as a large multi-lane highway in a smaller footprint all on grid power!

lll-o-lll3• 3 years ago

Appropriate user name. I agree with part of this approach, but trains suck for two reasons. Getting to the station, and sharing a carriage.

Why not have an EV that can run as a train? Drive to station, control goes to “highway management system” chill for journey?

Yizahi7• 3 years ago

Do you also watch Adam Something?:)

ben-schaaf• 3 years ago

I bet such a system of two-lane, electrified, high-speed, autonomous-steering high capacity vehicles could move as many people as a large multi-lane highway in a smaller footprint all on grid power!

To quantify this heavy rail has a route capacity of ~40k people per hour per lane, compared to ~2k for cars (using lower and upper estimates respectively). That means the route capacity for 2 lanes of heavy rail is at a minimum equivalent to a 40 lane highway.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Route_capacity

graphe• 3 years ago

It's pretty easy to game the system in terms of an EV. Get the credit for the EV, install a fossil fuel charger/range extender in the back and you have a hybrid that can do range and charges on fossil fuels. It's not as green but it is isn't as disruptive to the system.

barbazoo2• 3 years ago

Does any of that exist? Sure you could put a generator in your trunk but without making structural changes to the car that wouldn't really work.

timbit427• 3 years ago

This is essentially what the Chevy Volt was. It ran as an EV until the battery ran out and then the engine kicked on to keep the battery charged.

htag3• 3 years ago

The fact that this is rare indicates it's not a good value.

d--b• 3 years ago

Someone enlighten me please.

I’ve been wondering why we don’t concentrate on sodium batteries instead of lithium for EVs. They’re heavier but is that really a problem?

Today’s cars are heavy as hell, there must be ways to make lighter vehicles that balance the weight of sodium, no?

The main barrier in EV adoption is the price difference, which, if I understand correctly comes mainly from the battery.

Take all the heavy/expensive crap out of modern cars, use sodium batteries instead of lithium and you have yourself a winner, right?

That all seems like obvious choices to me.

Where am I wrong?

csours• 3 years ago

I’ve been wondering why we don’t concentrate on sodium batteries instead of lithium for EVs. They’re heavier but is that really a problem?

Sodium batteries suitable for EVs don't really exist yet.

Today’s cars are heavy as hell, there must be ways to make lighter vehicles that balance the weight of sodium, no?

You can make them slower, smaller, and shorter range. You can add lightness with things like aluminum and composites, but those are rather expensive. No you really can't remove enough weight and maintain the same form factor and user experience.

Batteries have been consistently coming down in price. This is the one thing that capitalism is good at, I feel quite sure that batteries will continue to come down in price. There are still huge advances being made every day in the lab; wait 5 years or so and those upgrades will be in commercial production.

If a sodium chemistry can prove itself to be the best, it will be used. Research institutions and industry are trying multiple parallel tracks

thinkcontext2• 3 years ago

Several Chinese manufacturers are introducing GWh scale sodium battery lines that should begin production this year or next. Some plan to use them in tandem with lithium batteries

_hypx2• 3 years ago

Sodium-ion batteries still don't exist yet. And even if they do, they will be much lower energy density than li-ion. EVs will get heavier, not lighter.

timbit427• 3 years ago

Sodium-ion batteries are approaching lithium-ion battery density. Researchers think they can reach and surpass lithium battery density, but that seems unlikely.

Until that happens we should switch to sodium-ion batteries for stationary uses, such as in homes an businesses and leave the lithium-ion batteries for portable usage such as vehicles and portable electronics.

travisporter• 3 years ago

I wish there is a dumb car with an ev powertrain and nothing else. No screen, telemetry, autopilot nothing.

polpo2• 3 years ago

You're exactly describing the base model Nissan Leaf before the 2018 models. And base models of the 2018 and later Leaf are still relatively spartan.

bartvk• 3 years ago

The current crop of electric motorcycles are like that.

kevin_thibedeau• 3 years ago

It's essentially impossible to upgrade existing residential neighborhoods to 200A service at every home. Nobody's going to pay for that infrastructure. This alone is going to limit the scale of adoption. Never mind the millions who will never have access to a dedicated charging station.

polpo2• 3 years ago

Our house has 100A service and we use a 30A car charger and have never popped our main breaker. On a hot day when the AC is likely to run, I'll hit the button on my car charger to delay charging to the middle of the night when we won't be running the electric dryer or stove.

dymk3• 3 years ago

You don’t even need 200 amp service for the 50 amp chargers that most EVs come with

twblalock3• 3 years ago

Depends on what else is in your house.

What you need is enough headroom in your panel to pass inspection. That's generally more than you really "need" at any given time, but good luck convincing the inspector that you will be fine because you won't charge your EV and use your dryer at the same time.

Most homes were built with enough headroom to power all the appliances that were present when the home was built, and that may not be enough if you add a 50-amp car charger. This is often the case for older homes that had air conditioning installed at a later date -- there goes your headroom!

As a homeowner trying to own an EV this sucks, but as a home buyer this is good -- people should be able to have confidence that electrical systems can handle the load the appliances in the home are capable of drawing, and it's not unusual for people with families to do laundry, cook, and charge their cars at the same time.

seanmcdirmid9• 3 years ago

I've got a 125A panel and am just using L1 charging. I thought it was going to be an issue but it turns out I drive less than 40 miles a day so it isn't a big deal.

lagadu3• 3 years ago

Just don't charge the car while your oven is on. No change in power needed: Problem solved.

BrentOzar3• 3 years ago

I'm in the midst of trying to get an electric car charger installed in my garage. Don't shoot the messenger.

I live in Las Vegas, in a 25-year-old subdivision. The homes' 200-amp panels don't have enough spare capacity to add a charger. (3 old less-efficient HVAC units, pool pumps, hot tub, electric oven, clothes dryer, etc.)

So to add a charger, I have to get my home's service raised to 400 amps. That wouldn't be a big deal, except... the neighborhood's transformers are already over capacity, too. A few of the homes already added 400-amp service so they could add Tesla chargers, and there's no capacity left in the neighborhood.

Nevada Energy is willing to add a new transformer in the neighborhood - but they want to charge me $20,000, plus the costs of trenching the new 400-amp line from the transformer to my house, plus the new panel, plus the charger. It's looking like a $40,000 installation.

Or... I could just put solar on the roof, build a separate isolated 200-amp panel powered by solar, and charge the car from that. (Plus move over the pool pumps, hot tub, etc while I'm at it.) That isn't free, either, but at least it'd cut my electric bills long term instead of adding to 'em.

I don't know how many homes & neighborhoods are in this situation, but I was surprised that a 25-year old neighborhood is having this problem.

rootusrootus17• 3 years ago

How are you measuring your peak load? 200A is a lot. I could see getting a bit over 100A with all three ACs running simultaneously, but that leaves plenty left over for a normal L2 charger. Just time your charging so it's when you're sleeping, not cooking and doing laundry.

I only have one 5 ton AC, but I do have a pool, hot tub, and heavy draw electric appliances, and it takes some effort to clear 100A of simultaneous draw. Almost the only way to do it is to charge both my EVs simultaneously (and that's cheating, a bit, because the Tesla charger is pulling 48A all by itself).

Also, you could just dial it down, at 240V even 20A is quite sufficient for almost everyone.

mcbishop3• 3 years ago

Just time your charging so it's when you're sleeping, not cooking and doing laundry.

But there's also passing inspection.

mcbishop3• 3 years ago

So to add a charger, I have to get my home's service raised to 400 amps.

National Electrical Code 2020 says you can use a "power control system" (i.e. software) to ensure your busbar isn't overloaded (avoiding the service upgrade).

Related "smart panel" options to check out: Span, Lumen Smart Panel, Savant Power Systems

mywittyname6• 3 years ago

I've heard of people using this with 100A service to great success. So it should work very well with 200A.

That being said, code is code. So if the local codes won't allow the OP to use this, then they are still stuck.

lostlogin11• 3 years ago

Do you need a charger? Just a normal power point is fine for my Leaf usage.

It also has a setting to change slower if wanted.

Probably depends on your daily milage.

cyberax5• 3 years ago

The homes' 200-amp panels don't have enough spare capacity to add a charger. (3 old less-efficient HVAC units, pool pumps, hot tub, electric oven, clothes dryer, etc.)

200 amp is a LOT. You will do just fine if you manage the loads, just install a smart charger that can monitor the overall power use and cut the charging rate if the capacity is getting low.

My house is on 125 amp service, and I have plenty of high-power consumers. It worked for me!

TechnologyConnections has a great video about it: https://youtu.be/CVLLNjSLJTQ?t=793

twblalock3• 3 years ago

In most places I know of, you will not pass inspection for new circuits if you don't have a certain amount of headroom in your panel, this is defined in the building code, and there will be no way to argue your way past it.

twblalock3• 3 years ago

Quite a few homes are in that situation, especially because some cities have much older houses on average than Vegas.

I had to get a panel upgrade on my house that was built in the 1960s, in order to get a charger installed, despite the house being built with 220v circuits originally for the dryer and the kitchen appliances. Lucky for me I didn't need the power company to upgrade anything like a transformer. It was still pretty expensive though -- around $8k for everything. I get a small rebate for installing it but it doesn't come anywhere near close to covering the full cost.

And this was for a house, so it's easy. Nobody can tell me I can't do it, unlike the situation for people who live in condos and need their HOA to approve things. A lot of condos were not built with this kind of power in mind and will need upgrades, potentially trenching across the community parking lot, etc. The members of the HOA who don't own electric cars are not going to be happy about paying for other people's chargers so they aren't going to be helpful.

If we want people with average incomes to be able to afford EVs we will need to make it much cheaper to install chargers -- and we will need significantly better public charging infrastructure for people who live in apartments and need to park on the street.

Plus we are doubling down on electric power for everything, and our power grids are generally not great. In California we can barely satisfy existing demand, and rolling blackouts need to be implemented in the summer so PG&E doesn't burn down another forest. If we all had EVs on top of the current demand, the grid would not hold up. Given how incompetent our utility companies are at everything else they do, I'm not confident they will handle EV demand well.

sib• 3 years ago

We installed an Energy Management System (sometimes called Dynamic Charge Controller) in our last place - a townhouse with 90amp service - in order to be able to charge our Tesla Model 3. It was permitted and passed inspection with no trouble.

https://dccelectric.com/dcc-9/

adanto6840• 3 years ago

Wow, sorry to hear that. I'm also in Vegas and have very similar loads (2x 5-ton, 1x 2.5ton, pool/spa, car charger, etc) -- but I luckily already had 300A service.

I agree with the some of the other comments; you absolutely can "get by" with 200A. FWIW, I rarely use 50% and my car charger can pull >=72A by itself ("dual onboard chargers").

I checked into smart panels just because I was interested, and that may be the way to go for you (Span wasn't serving this area at the time FWIW), but you may have other options that are still up to code. My garage had an extra unused "dryer" outlet even, prior to installing the dedicated charger, and I have another outlet in an exterior garage too (probably was originally installed for welding, I've never used it).

It's certainly doable as far as the physics go; how much hoop-jumping you'll need to do to pass an inspection though, is another question, but it might be less than you think.

I'm not sure what the inspection requirements are for the "isolated solar" idea, but I'd _guess_ that it's similarly cost prohibitive (not sure if the "NVE off-grid fees" would apply at existing residence or not), and you lose some of the benefits of solar -- net metering & pseudo-arbitrage of TOU rates + "balancing" panel/system load (mostly applicable if you do ESS), etc.

Feel free to reach out (email in profile); I'd enjoy hearing more about the situation & perhaps could provide some guidance or ideas. :)

bit_logic• 3 years ago

We have let the perfect become the enemy of the good. With the urgency of climate change, current grid infrastructure, and battery technology and production, the solution we needed to push hard was PHEV. For the battery in a single EV, it can build four PHEVs which means four households reducing most of their gas miles versus a single household. A common strawman is that a PHEV is more complex and harder to maintain. And yet that theoretical argument is directly countered by the existence of the Toyota Prius, one of the best for reliability, so good that it's used in taxi fleets. A PHEV is basically a Prius with a much larger battery. Another strawman is that there wouldn't be demand. And yet there is incredible demand for the Toyota RAV4 Prime. A PHEV with 40-50 miles EV range can be charged overnight with a simple 120V outlet, no expensive electrical upgrade required.

tstrimple• 3 years ago

For the battery in a single EV, it can build four PHEVs which means four households reducing most of their gas miles versus a single household

Is the adoption of new EVs being slowed by the lack of batteries? Building 4 PHEV with the same batteries as 1 EV doesn't mean you're going to sell four times as many PHEV.

mywittyname6• 3 years ago

directly countered by the existence of the Toyota Prius,

The transmission design in the Prius is a lot more simple than a conventional automatic transmission. The engine is also so overbuilt that I've seen Prius engine swaps (sans hybrid system) into other Toyotas the basis of race engines. The 1.5L had forged crank and titanium conrod (very rare, even in sports cars), which could be pushed to 10,000RPMs with some valve springs.

cryptoegorophy2• 3 years ago

Not an electrician, but why can’t you add a charger? If you don’t run ac and dryer and charge at the same time you should be fine? I also charged for 2 years just from standard outlet which had me nervous at times but made me a better planner. It cost me later $300 to add a charger(dryer outlet) which I think is quite cheap

throwaway742• 3 years ago

This. I believe there are even smart management systems that can disable certain circuits when others are active e.g. if the hot tub, or dryer are on it turns off power the EV charger. IIRC they aren't cheap, but they also aren't 40k.

newZWhoDis• 3 years ago

I don’t engage in long form discussion on HN anymore due to the moderation policy, I’ll say in short

1) You are in the process of being scammed. 200A is plenty to run an EV charger and 400A is absurd.

2) The max at home charge rate is 240v60A, 200+ amps extra is more than enough to peak charge three teslas at the same time.

Install a sub panel and 240v 60A outlet in your garage, then set your EV to charge around 11 or so. You’ll be done by 1-2am and never notice it.

hnburnsy2• 3 years ago

Share the dryer outlet with a Y splitter, $50. Just saved you $39,950. You will charge at 20-22 miles per hour, which is plenty.

modeless• 3 years ago

A passive Y splitter is not a good idea, but you can get active ones with a switch that only lets one thing run at a time, which works just fine for EV charging.

theshrike797• 3 years ago

200A?! Must be a single-phase thing.

Over here we have 3x25A (17kW) or 3x35A (24kW). You can easily charge a car at 7kW speeds without blowing a breaker. With a fancier load-balancing charger you can get all the way to 22kW, but very few cars can charge that fast from AC, most cap around 11kW.

mercutio2• 3 years ago

200A in the US is 24kW.

m463• 3 years ago

Sounds like you could apply the money to more efficient HVAC with smaller circuits and avoid the $40k path.

Also, you can scale the EV charger to lower amps. I had trouble with tesla's gen 3 charger. I had a 60A circuit, which should allow charging up to 48 amps. But it would overheat sometimes and STOP charging. (bummer to come out to drive a car that hadn't been charged)

so I reduces charging rate from 48 to 40, then finally 30amps and it has been stable. And although I've parked with as low as 6% charge, I've never come out to a car that hadn't finished charging by morning.

alex_duf• 3 years ago

That's a crazy amount of power, for reference here in France I run my whole house on a 9kW service (9kVA to be precise). That's with a heatpump and everything electric, including an electric car, and running the heating at more than 20°C during the winter. I might move it to three phases and 12kVA when we get a proper car charger installed, but with our solar panels and smart charging I think I might be able to save myself the trouble.

How are houses in the US made to be this inefficient? That's about one quarter of your installation if I'm doing the math correctly, (110V in the US right?)

justrealist• 3 years ago

Pool, hot tub, and uses air conditioning in Las Vegas...

Look, for better or for worse, Las Vegas is a testament to man's dominance of nature, and that takes a lot of electricity. It's not really about the efficiency.

cryptonector• 3 years ago

It's Las Vegas. Has a pool and hot tub and, of course, air conditioners. You folks in Europe don't have air conditioners and mostly don't need them (except when you do you do and you suffer). This is not really representative of most of the U.S., but it is representative of a lot of the U.S. Basically everywhere in the South we have central air conditioning, though it's not that common to have hot tubs.

jwr2• 3 years ago

That was my impression as well. I'm in Poland, and 9kW is what you'd expect for an apartment or a small house. I needed 17kW for a small country house recently, but that's because of a "flow-through" water heater (no boiler tank) which makes sense in installations which aren't used every day.

A heat pump can heat/cool a small modern insulated wooden house with a 200W-450W power budget, throughout the year, with outside temperatures below freezing.

I installed an EV charger recently, with an 11kW of power allocation.

All that is way below the power in the installation mentioned…

US houses are incredibly inefficient.

adrianmonk• 3 years ago

The house is probably gigantic.

Houses in the US tend to be pretty large to begin with[1]. In newer cities that have a lot of land to expand into (entire new subdivisions in the suburbs), the average house is around 2500 feet^2 (~230 m^2).

But houses in the US also tend to only have one AC unit for the entire house. So if a house has three AC units, it is probably even larger than average. It could be 3000-4000 ft^2 (~275-375 m^2).

And naturally it takes a lot of energy to heat and cool all that space.

---

[1] https://www.propertyshark.com/Real-Estate-Reports/2016/09/08...

seb1204• 3 years ago

Not sure what your charging habits are but I fare well with a 10Amp, 240V wall plug to charge my car over night. Charging from 22:00 to 07:00 is sufficient to top up our day to day driving. We charge most nights and I can add about 20% over night. So maybe considering the time of use your whole load calc will look a little better?

dandy23• 3 years ago

People use clothes driers in Las Vegas? No wonder there is global warming.

rendang3• 3 years ago

I grew up in Arizona among the poor and working class and I can't recall even hearing of someone that didn't use a dryer

code_runner• 3 years ago

My home was built in the 1920s and I didn’t have any issues at all. Most neighbors with EVs also have chargers of some sort (similar age homes)

lultimouomo2• 3 years ago

I find it hilarious that we are talking about preserving the environment and someone complains that they need would need more electric capacity to charge their vehicle and run their clothes dryer in the desert. As long as US exists, the world stands no chance.

rendang3• 3 years ago

You'd prefer he strung out a line in his backyard & hung all his clothes outside like they do in developing countries?

Robotbeat• 3 years ago

Just charge 120V. I honestly think a lot of people overthink this. 120V works fine, I also installed a transfer switch to switch between my charger and my clothes dryer.

You don’t need 400A service or any of that nonsense.

Mizoguchi• 3 years ago

If they real purpose of both manufactures and consumers of EVs was to combate climate change, then a much easier, cheaper, and better solution would be for everyone to discourage driving and promote public transportation and telecommuting. That would not only reduce emissions much more effectively, but the money saved in maintaining expensive and unnecessary infrastructure like thousands of miles of highways and bridges could be invested in maintaining and expanding public transportation and in bringing, fast, reliable and inexpensive internet access to every household so more people can telecommute to work/school. But cars look nice and they are fun to drive.

ttiurani• 3 years ago

Exactly.

Electrification of single-occupancy vehicles – which, let's face it, is what the overwhelming majority of the EV business is really about – is not ecological. When you take into account environmental stress in general[0], and don't tunnel vision just on CO2[1], it should be immediately obvious to everyone that stopping the climate and ecological breakdown needs much more imagination than just replacing a car with another car.

[0] https://goodlife.leeds.ac.uk/national-trends/country-trends/...

[1] https://www.insnet.org/carbon-tunnel-vision-or-inter-connect...

_ea1k10• 3 years ago

Articles like this are music to a Tesla exec's ears. :)

pier25• 3 years ago

The article mentions an ebook. Anyone has a link?

voidfunc• 3 years ago

I still haven't quite figured out how all the people that street park because they don't have driveways or garages or even a place directly out front of their house are supposed to use EVs. Cities are not building the infrastructure to support that at all.

qdog4• 3 years ago

New apartment buildings are adding EV spaces, but on-street parkers either have to find a charger and take time, or regularly park somewhere with a charger (like at work). The city could start adding chargers pretty easily at like street lamps, but haven't seen any indication of that so far. I've found that the big city is not particularly friendly for either gas or electric if you don't have a fixed place to park, the chargers are generally slow and Tesla has great coverage outside the city (at least where I've been), but poor support inside the city. There is going to have to be some infrastructure upgrade at some point.

erik_seaberg• 3 years ago

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33418206 depicted a public charger for street parking. We’re going to need millions of those, but I haven’t seen any yet.

Ekaros2• 3 years ago

EV spaces... But realistically you want EV charging on every spot and reasonably infra and cabling to support some fraction of them working at same time.

Shuffling your car around and waiting for shared facility possibly misused just doesn't seem like good fun to me.

perryizgr8• 3 years ago

It's actually very easy. As soon as electric cars are better for the customer, people will automatically start buying them. As soon as that happens, manufacturers will ramp up production to meet demand. Transition over.

cryptoegorophy2• 3 years ago

I’ve been driving EV for quite a while, if you have your own garage it is a no Brainer because you essentially have a “pump” at home. It’s like you don’t go to a gas station to charge your phone. Charge at night, same here. It is just so much better overall with next to nothing maintenance.

causality0• 3 years ago

I'll never get why PHEVs never caught on. They're no more complex than a hybrid and combine the best aspects of both ICE and BEV vehicles. They require no charging infrastructure, and need only a fraction the battery weight of a BEV.

danans3• 3 years ago

I'll never get why PHEVs never caught on.

I think they haven't caught on because at this point, most people who buy EVs have another gasoline-fueled car, or are pure EV enthusiasts. Plugin hybrids are great for 1 car households whose daily drives are within the battery range, but want easy refueling on long trips. But 1 car households are rare in the US. They are also more expensive than their non-plugin versions (at least they were before the IRA tax credits went into effect).

jjtheblunt2• 3 years ago

The EV transition is harder..

I drove exclusively pure electric (bmw i3) for 7+ years and it was far easier a transition than i ever imagined. Like 10x easier.

These titles with such FUD assertions prioritize drama and attention seeking over facts from years of data.

edit: these articles overlook that a huge percentage of daily around town driving recharges easily on the existing grid at 110v, but the articles tend to presume everyone need charge a depleted long range battery, daily, which is patently false.

freetime22• 3 years ago

You seem to be speaking to your personal experience of transitioning to an EV, whereas the article is concerned with the scale of changes needed to transition the entire automotive industry to EVs in the 15 year timeframe that policymakers are targetting.

jjtheblunt2• 3 years ago

Yes, and thank you, because I should add (should have added) that i charged at 110 volts and the power draw is negligible on the grid, for most days. the interesting and oft overlooked reality is that EV use, and charging on the existing grid, is beyond adequate for a huge percentage of daily driver purposes.

Guthur• 3 years ago

It's all a scam. None of it lines up with touted aims.

The cost in so called green house gases to mine, refine and transport the materials will far dwarf whatever is saved of 7% or so of CO2 that comes from personal transport (including buses). And on top of that electricity generation is likely to be coming from hydro carbons of one form or another anyway.

This is all to impoverish the many to enrich a few. Be under no illusion this process has been repeated ad infinitum through out our history. All systems of control are thoroughly captured and you'll walk willingly towards it as many continue to listen to these worm tongues.

theshrike797• 3 years ago

The materials need to be mined and refined _once_. Then they're in the reuse/recycle -loop forever.

Oil we pump out of the ground (mine), refine and transport in a constant stream and then we literally burn it into dust. GOTO10.

More people have been "impoverished" by oil spill damage than ever will be because of battery mineral mining or electricity generation.

coldtea3• 3 years ago

No shit! It's as hard as many have repeatedly said, it's only the techno-optimist crowd that got it wrong. It ain't gonna happen in any of the promised "deadlines" by EU and others. And if there's a prolonged recession all bets are off.

coldtea3• 3 years ago

And in case it's not obvious already, same goes for all the "Mars mission" targets by Musk and others (regarding, "SpaceX's 1st crewed Mars mission could launch as early as 2024, Elon Musk says").

Of course nothing will happen (even at 2026, 2029 dates, beyond this "as early as" date), those are PR announcements.

But if somebody said than in HN a few years ago at the height of the Musk-hype they'd be laughed off.

anovikov• 3 years ago

The chart is so completely confusing, i totally can't read it however much i try... They could do better.

textread• 3 years ago

The tinkerer in me loves to own a vehicle I can easily service myself. Electric vehicles, in their current form, can easily electrocute an amateur DIY mechanic to death.

I love older purely mechanical vehicles. Their simplicity means that I can fix most things with duct tape or a piece of metal wire.

spokeonawheel• 3 years ago

Its because EVs are HIGH cost with LOW range.

Also, EV minivan club, party of 1

elif2• 3 years ago

I think it's bizarre to make the claim that EV users generally should be encouraged to charge during the day instead of night using the argument that California, at some times, has a surplus of solar energy it is unable to utilize.

There is no attempt to argue that any states other than California have a solar surplus, no cure for the rolling blackouts they do occur during the peak hours in California, or any analysis about how many electric cars would eliminate that California surplus.

It's such a niche of a niche perspective.. I'm pretty sure there's good reason why my utility provider sells me energy at $0.01 overnight and $0.17 during the day.

lynx23• 3 years ago

"Anyone" already knows the EV transition isn't that easy. It is basically only lobbyists, politicians and journalists who seem to life in a world divorced from reality. Esp. journalists, who are fighting on the forefront of peope-manipulation. Journalism seems to be dominated by wishful thinking and political dogfights. Gone are the days when a journalist actually reported about what is going on, not what they would like to see.....

oittaa5• 3 years ago

Wow, I didn't expect this many oil shills in this thread.

ben_w2• 3 years ago

The fear of collapsing the energy grid is why I think it would be a good idea to put solar cells on electric cars, even though that's not a great place to put solar panels if all else was equal.

lm28469• 3 years ago

You're going to get like 5 miles a day in best case scenario

ben_w2• 3 years ago

5-10 for normal sized cars, yes.

I hear the average miles driven is only about 12 per day, so it's still significant.

Or it would be if people didn't generally prefer to park in shade on sunny days.

But as cars are a big energy sink, even 1 mile/day is still potentially very useful.

timbit427• 3 years ago

The Aptera can get up to 40 miles per day from its built-in solar panels in California sunshine. A lot less in London, England. It can get that much because it's twice as efficient as a Tesla Model 3.

Aptera: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpiH-Y-HOvE

crownosey• 3 years ago

the transition to gasoline was hard too but it was forced through as a way for Pacific/Standard Oil to make a killing (of people who's land they were digging up)

mikewarot5• 3 years ago

given the sheer tonnage of lithium, cobalt, and other raw materials needed for EV batteries, that figure is overly optimistic, suggests the mineral market analysis company Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, unless nearly 300 new mines and supporting refineries open by then.

This is the real show stopper. We lack the supply chains necessary to replace all the cars with electric models. This simple fact should give rise to other questions about the practicality of mass conversion to electric vehicles.

---

As for me, if the supply chains got fixed. I've got the cheapest house in town, with 100 amp 240 volt service. Without spending 10% the cost of the house to get a bigger utility panel, the NEMA 6-50 240 volt / 50 amp breaker option seems barely doable, so in theory I could charge a car overnight at +30 miles range/hour.[1]

[1] https://www.tesla.com/support/home-charging-installation/mob...

timbit427• 3 years ago

This is why we should be focused on PHEVs, not BEVs. PHEVs use 1/10th the batteries, batteries cost 1/10th, take 1/10th the energy and time to charge, but provide electric driving for 90% of trips.

If we build 10 PHEVs with the batteries it would take to build one BEV, instead of saving 100% of one vehicle's fuel usage, we could build 10 PHEVs and save 10 x 90% = 900% fuel usage.

mikewarot5• 3 years ago

What is a phev?

panda888888• 3 years ago

This also misses the point that EVs are cheaper over time. There is currently a slightly higher upfront cost, but there are no oil changes, less break wear due to regenerative breaking, no transmission to service, no spark plugs, no timing belt, no engine air filter, etc.

In my experience with an EV, all you need to do is rotate the tires and add window washer fluid. That's it!

ifdefdebug• 3 years ago

Besides climate, there is one point about EV/ICE that never gets discussed: for decades now, we are polluting our environment with ICE emissions, in some places to unbearable levels. Why is this still allowed? I would have expected to make it mandatory to require an electric engine to every new car since hybrid technology became available, if not for anything else but having those cars capable of doing at least the urban stop-and-go without the stink.

Looks like we became so used to poison each other's breathing air that we don't even question it any more, we think it's some kind of inherited right we have. But guess what - I am also not supposed to throw the content of my potty out of the window anymore - nowadays that's not only unacceptable behavior, but outright forbidden. Because better technology became available to solve the problem.

perlgeek2• 3 years ago

In Germany we have city zones where only vehicles with certain emission standards are allowed to enter (usually the downtown areas with most population and traffic).

Seems like it would be possible to use this model to further restrict to only in EVs, which would also provide some incentives for more EV adoption.

Symbiote• 3 years ago

There are a few places that have already done this, usually only for delivery vehicles. I think part of Paris is one example.

ZeroGravitas3• 3 years ago

I can still remember when EVs were physically impossible, and then when they were possible but worse than ICE for the planet, then when they were only toys for rich playboys and on and on.

So I'm surprised by the headline claiming everyone thinks this is going to be super easy.

The big question is what sets him apart from all the naysayers saying many of the same things that he's apparently never noticed during his in depth investigation of the matter.

perlgeek2• 3 years ago

Policy makers who push towards EV adoption and the necessary infrastructure changes basically have to present it as somewhat easy to do, otherwise everybody will object with "it's too hard, let's not waste any money on it".

That doesn't mean they actually believe it's easy.

goodpoint• 3 years ago

555 comments and nobody pointed out that cars are unsustainable anyways. The world desperately needs to move towards public transportation now.

ulfw• 3 years ago

I for one can't wait for the new 2024 Mini EV. With double the range of the current model and on a dedicated EV platform it'll be the perfect little car.

I can't be bothered with an SUV as a single person.

qikInNdOutReply• 3 years ago

For 90 years, the whole of humanity poored all resources into IC. They got so good, they can go to the moon and back without more then basic maintenance.

We are maybe 10 years into mass market adoption and still have internal resistance to research investments in all major IC companys. So we are not even near the part, were the break throughs happen and far away from the moment the whole affair plateaus out.

We also go against the most entrenched resource industry if ever there was one. Half of the middle east and russia, all dependent on this technology failing. But somewhere, in some cooperate battery lab, there sits someone, who will deal it a lethal blow. And as ECs push ICs into the uneconomical lethal zone, the resistance to it will fade.

AndyMcConachie• 3 years ago

The only transition that matters is to mass transit. I transitioned away from a car by moving into a dense urban environment. Best car I ever owned was the nonexistent one.

anticensor• 3 years ago

Best car I own is my own feet. And my second preferred mode is public transport.

Gravityloss• 3 years ago

There are alternatives to cobalt, nickel, manganese and even lithium in batteries. There are a lot of articles being written how EV:s are not possible because they require so much materials and often mention cobalt and nickel.

A Tesla Model 3 version that has been available to buy for a long time already has LFP batteries don't contain cobalt, nickel or manganese [1]

Hence, are the articles actually worth it if they don't acknowledge this?

1: https://www.allaboutcircuits.com/news/a-closer-look-at-lithi...

pastacacioepepe2• 3 years ago

Cars have no place in a sustainable future.

Independently from their source of power, a society built on cars as the primary mean of transportation is unsustainable and will always be.

We don't need to invest trilions in transitioning fuel engines to EV. We need to invest them in rebuilding our cities and suburbs to be walkable and to minimize the need for travels.

marbartolome• 3 years ago

I'm surprised nobody else echoes this argument, is the US really that car dependant?

I think micromobilty and improvements in transportation on demand would really reduce the need for car ownership.

Already in big cities with good public transport cars don't make much sense anymore, but I believe suburbs will follow.

pastacacioepepe2• 3 years ago

Check out the excellent "Not Just Bikes" and "Strong Towns" YT channels to know how dependant we are on cars (spoiler: a lot, unless you live in exceptional places like the Netherlands) and to see how we are still in time to build a better future.

amadeuspagel• 3 years ago

Volvo cars CEO Jim Rowan boldly proclaims that electric vehicles will reach price parity with internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles by 2025. Not likely, counter Mercedes-Benz’s chief technology officer Markus Schäfer and Renault Group CEO Luca de Meo.

"If an elderly but distinguished scientist says that something is possible, he is almost certainly right; but if he says that it is impossible, he is very probably wrong." — Arthur C. Clarke

Maybe all of them are right for their own companies.

Tade02• 3 years ago

I see a lot of analogies between this and mobile phones.

The Motorola DynaTAC was made commercially available in 1983 and not very useful considering the lack of coverage infrastructure. Within 30 years we went from 30min of talk time and 8h standby through hours of talk time and weeks of standby to days of talk time and a day of usage, not to mention a whole spectrum of form factors and features.

And nobody, especially the incumbents, could predict the final shape the devices would take, sometimes to their demise(like in the case of Nokia).

The Mitsubishi i-MiEV was slow, expensive and small, with little range.

The Tesla Model 3 costs roughly the same (comparing to the 2011 MSRP for the Mitsubishi) adjusted for inflation, but is much better in every aspect.

That's less than 15 years of development. Who knows what will happen by 2035? Maybe we'll ditch lithium in favour of sodium, just like cobalt stopped being neccesary? Maybe the battery manufacturer Amprius will get acquired by a car company and scale the production of its 500Wh/kg batteries well beyond the planned 5GWh/yr? Maybe we'll have slow chargers attached to every streetlamp?

Norway is largely there regarding transitioning, despite having a cold climate. Took less than 15 years and their grid didn't collapse. Sounds like something the rest of the wolrd is capable of doing eventually.

esalman5• 3 years ago

There's a Porsche factory in Chile there they make synthetic fuel by synthesizing water and CO2 from air. So it is net zero emission (might even be negative). It costs $40 a gallon now. By 2035 it'll probably cost $2 a gallon.. maybe even mobile synthesizers will be available and we will end up seeing EVs extinct.

pstrateman• 3 years ago

It seems far more likely that synthetic fuels will become cheaper than ev cars will become universally useful.

godzillabrennus• 3 years ago

More info for others: https://techcrunch.com/2022/12/20/porsche-pumps-first-synthe...

zinekeller2• 3 years ago

... or probably not.

Synthetic fuels are great for airlines which is the only realistic solution for long-distance travels (cryogenic hydrogen containers would be heavier and a significant hazard, batteries are only feasible on shorter routes), but the allure of EV isn't just because it's cleaner but also it's significantly lower maintenance versus an ICE car. Maintaining an ICE car is no joke, and while EVs do still require some maintenance it is only a fraction of ICE vehicles.

Gwypaas• 3 years ago

Synthetic fuel is too expensive, the horrible efficiency of heat engines makes the cost ~5x compared to pure EVs. For long distance air travel and cross ocean shipping, which uses the energy density of organic fuels, it has some applications.

https://simpleflying.com/saf-cost-competitive-jet-fuel/

mywittyname6• 3 years ago

This doesn't address the issue of non-CO2 pollution. Which is especially bad in large cities.

cabirum• 3 years ago

The power grid will be roughly the same in 15 years. Now, know what the "TV pickup" is? - It's a spike in electrical grid demand when everyone turns on a kettle to make tea during commercial breaks.

So, consider EVs adopted at scale, and, like, there's an apartment building with 100 tenants arriving home in the evening. They start charging their cars. That would require 7.2kW x 100 = 720kW of power (a common max for charging stations) for a single building just to charge cars.

Cort3z• 3 years ago

So?

The power companies makes money by delivering electricity. This sounds like a problem they want to solve.

Tade02• 3 years ago

That's a solved problem - just combine a smart meter with a charger and you can adjust the power so that it doesn't make the peak worse.

For most of the night electricity usage is considerably lower than during the evening peak.

criley2• 3 years ago

Very true, and it's a well understood problem. For a variety of reasons it is better to charge during the day than overnight (not the least being that solar works better during the day, helping to mooting nightly storage concerns), and so an ideal situation here is that many or even most of those charged during the day at work.

There's a lot of possibilities here though. With smart meters and cars hooked up all night, the power company has a lot of freedom to not just 100% every car instantly, but throttle and prioritize as necessary.

snowwrestler2• 3 years ago

There were very similar concerns about mobile bandwidth not long after the iPhone came out. Mobile carriers just built like crazy and handled it. No reason power companies can’t do the same thing.

pornel4• 3 years ago

This is not much power, and all cars support scheduled/delayed overnight charging already. There are cars that support V2G and can be made to even supply power to the grid for that TV pickup peak if necessary. BEVs have batteries large enough that they're fine even if they're not plugged in for several days.

Slow AC charging is little more than a kettle + electric oven, and we built the grid for that instead of lamenting it's too much for the grid and people need to continue to use wood stoves. Driving 40 miles (US daily average) uses about 10-12kWh of electricity, and there's whole night to refill that.

iso16314• 3 years ago

Why would I do that when it costs more to charge at that time due to higher demand. Indeed I'll drain from my house battery back to the grid at that time to make a little on the side and charge from midnight for far less cost.

naravara• 3 years ago

Assuming it's for overnight charging, I would guess a large apartment complex that offers an EV charging hub might like to install some sort of load balancing/switching mechanism to limit how much total draw. It doesn't take the full evening to charge a car, so it would sequence where to deliver the power.

Most people don't drive that much in a day. For a typical EV user nightly charging isn't even really necessary, they're probably only needing to charge once every 3 days or so so it won't take that much to top-up if they're doing it nightly. If it's a small enough building tenants might be okay with doing a sort of sign-in system to use a smaller bank of chargers when needed. Sort of like reserving a treadmill at the gym.

ar9av• 3 years ago

I don’t think I could comfortably switch to only EV cars. I think I still need a gasoline car with my Tesla. However, both of cars are similar size and mileage. One uses electricity, the other uses premium gas, as a result… round trip from work, one will cost ~$6 dollars in electricity, whereas the other is ~$15 dollars. Plus there are still some trips we do frequently where there are zero charging station for miles so having a gas car does help

otabdeveloper4• 3 years ago

Making a car-shaped electric vehicle is like attaching a GSM module to a rotary phone.

Building future cities around electric scooters, EUCs, etc - yeah, I can see that.

Electric car-shaped objects - not really. The current car-shaped infrastructure will have to change in any case.

logifail13• 3 years ago

Norway is largely there regarding transitioning, despite having a cold climate. Took less than 15 years and their grid didn't collapse

[Norway] "Sep 2022: Over 25% of all cars on the road are plug-in electric"[0]

They're just over 1/4 of the way there, I'm not sure I'd call that "largely there".

Persuading people with plenty of money to buy an EV is relatively easy, as one can tell from the tone of the comments here from EV owners, who seem broadly very happy with their vehicles.

Q: How do we propose to persuade the rest of society to switch? Apparently it won't be by throwing cash at the problem if one looks at Germany's take on the issue:

"Germany will reduce financial incentives to buy electric cars next year after an agreement within the governing coalition, as the vehicles' growing popularity makes government subsidies unnecessary, Germany's economy ministry said on Tuesday.

The incentives, or premiums, paid to buyers of electric cars will expire completely once an allocated sum of 3.4 billion euros ($3.44 billion) from the next two years' budget is spent, according to government sources."[1]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N... [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/german-coalition-parties-...

iso16314• 3 years ago

Charge petrol users the true costs of their transport choices and there will be no choice but to buy an electric car (or no car at all - especially in cities)

ZeroGravitas3• 3 years ago

In Norway the electric cars now drive more miles per year than ICE cars, which means if they are 25% of the cars, they account for more than 25% of the miles driven.

And both numbers are increasing.

cornholio• 3 years ago

The grid argument is especially spurious since the power required for driving is so low. At a typical 10 kWh/100 km that a daily city commuter will draw, with most such cars charged overnight at home, you will add a grand total of 100 kWh to your monthly power bill for 1000 km.

This will cover the great majority of cars and city tips with essentially no grid upgrades. The other part of transport needs - commercial fleets, long distance hauling etc. - will have dedicated charging infrastructure paid for the businesses that operate them, since it will make economic sense for them to switch to electric.

lnsru• 3 years ago

Sorry, 10 kWh at electricity meter for 100 km just does not sound real.

hadlock• 3 years ago

To be fair, Nokia was the target of a hostile takeover by Microsoft (Steve "developers developers developers developers" Balmer era) in their bid to make Windows 8 touch/small device a thing, then summarily and unceremoniously killed off when Windows 8 mobile failed to take off. Nokia was definitely in decline in the mid 2010s, but it was Microsoft who brought them to their early, untimely death by at least 5 years. I'm still stunned Finland allowed that to happen.

mach1ne• 3 years ago

Nokia was slow to the party and competed between Apple and Android. When opportunity offered itself to adopt a third option, Windows Phone, with market monopoly, they took it.

Problem was that a couple of years later Microsoft announced their Windows Tablet, making them a direct competitor with Nokia. Now the organization was stuck with a very bad deal. They took the option of seeking acquisition by Microsoft as the apparent least worst option.

Source: Transforming Nokia by Risto Siilasmaa, Nokia’s Chairman 2012-2020 https://www.paranoid-optimist.com/

callamdelaney• 3 years ago

My model 3 lease is up next year aand I'm getting a Ford Ranger next.

timwaagh• 3 years ago

I think if the batteries will be too big of an issue then we will end up going hydrogen for cheap cars and battery ev for more expensive vehicles for people who drive a lot.

bad_alloc• 3 years ago

Last summer I did a 4200km roadtrip in my 41kWh Renault Zoe from southern Germany to northern Spain. The car is *absolutely not* built for long range. There were significant gaps in the charging network in some regions. The terrain was largely mountainous and traffic was fairly bad.

Despite all this, the trip was great: The car never was a limiting factor and always could go further than me as a lone driver (maximum daily distance: 660km). With 2 apps, google maps and some planning while charging it was possible to reach basically every place I wanted to go. Unlike the dozens of broken down ICE cars i saw, the Zoe had zero issues. The only problem worth mentioning was a company called EDP supplying too few and totally unreliable chargers in Asturias and Galicia.

With a car with a longer range charging on the highway becomes less and less important, so as long as there are plenty of 11kW chargers in cities for overnight charging or 300kW chargers for day charging (solar!), EV use is easy and already 100% usable. If you can charge at home for your daily commute and we are smart about the timing, I see few issues here.

AnIdiotOnTheNet8• 3 years ago

It's not so much hard as it is just not easy and society has lost the will to do things that are not easy.

lr1970• 3 years ago

Most of combating climate change debates implicitly assume that reducing GHG emissions alone will stop or slow down significantly the climate change. I am afraid we already passed that point. At least in short term we should give a serious consideration to active climate engineering that working together with limiting GHG gives us a fighting change to restore the planetary climate to a set-point we are comfortable with. Unfortunately, most of debates are emotionally charged and single-mindedly focused. My hopes for a rational multi-prong approach to climate control are low.

1970-01-01• 3 years ago

going to scale threatens people’s long-held beliefs, ways of life, and livelihoods, many of which will be altered, if not made obsolete.

This is the biggest challenge. You can't teach an old buyer new concepts without ramming it down their throat. The biggest transition hack will be training mechanics to become EV-focused. We have about 40 years of mechanic knowledge to churn before their knowledge retires with them. Eventually, fixing engines becomes cost prohibitive, and the roads will grow silent. Only then will the throat-ramming process be complete.

user3939382• 3 years ago

I can’t imagine relying on an EV in a wide scale emergency. Maybe as a secondary car.

cultureswitch2• 3 years ago

And rightly so. The best car for the environment and for you and for the economy is the one you don't buy.

Subsidizing buying new cars is an incredibly misguided policy no matter what the new car is. The emissions an costs of production are nothing to scoff at unless you're an extremely heavy driver.

The EV Transition Is Harder Than Anyone Thinks

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