Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-stress-test-for-solidarity-looming-natural-gas-shortages-has-the-eu-scrambling-for-solutions-a-c3e1cdb9-e11b-4f7a-bdbc-f252e1ebe013

by leonkunert • 4 years ago

114 381 4 years ago

spiegel.de

rgrieselhuber• 4 years ago

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spiegel.de%2Finter...

badrabbit• 4 years ago

Covid shut down most LNG production in north america, good opportunity to get back to fracking and ruining the environment in US and Canada for the right price, theh can use tanker ships not just pipes unless they simply can't move that volume with ships.

88840-88553• 4 years ago

there is no lng supply possible for Europe. you can frack as much as you want and ship as much as you want. the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US).

toomuchtodo2• 4 years ago

"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity."

Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case scenario where they run at maximum output.

There will be some pain, but this is the 21st century, not the 19th.

dingleberry420• 4 years ago

There won't be a downfall.

mensetmanusman• 4 years ago

Downfall is hyperbole. If it gets bad enough NATO might force shipment.

melenaboija• 4 years ago

“The US Is Now Sending the Bulk of Its Export Gas to Europe”. From June 7th.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-07/the-us-is...

hulderKamp2• 4 years ago

Europe is until now unwilling to tap available resources. For instance the Groningen gas field is not running at full capacity [0] (for various reasons) I think Europe is naive and should expect Russia to halt all exports when they need it the most. [0] https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/groningen-gas-should-b...

causi• 4 years ago

the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US)

The US is not particularly dependent on Europe. Total trade with Europe, both import and export, is just 3% of the US GDP.

ricardobayes• 4 years ago

There is, through Spain. There are existing pipelines from Algeria and Morocco.

inglor_cz4• 4 years ago

"downfall of Europe"

Go look at some photos of Europe immediately post WWII. Especially Poland and Germany.

If we survived that and rose again from literal ashes, we won't be done in by one winter without Russian gas. This continent withstood a lot worse than a limited period of expensive heating.

hash07e• 4 years ago

Errr...

How about turn on those Nuclear plants?

shafyy3• 4 years ago

Natural gas cannot be replaced by nuclear energy (or any other source of electricity) for many applications, at least not in the short term. For example here in Germany, many homes use gas boilers (heaters) for heating space and water. You would need to rebuild a lot of infrastructure to use electricity (which Germany plans to do, but obviously this will take years if not decades).

lolinder4• 4 years ago

Is there a difference between the kind of gas used in power plants and the kind for residential use? If not, couldn't nuclear plants reduce the need for gas in power plants, allowing that gas to go to heating homes instead?

acdha2• 4 years ago

You're forgetting two things: not all natural gas is used for heating and Russia does not supply 100% of the natural gas used in Europe. If a nuclear plant can generate enough electricity to shut down a natural gas plant, the natural gas which would have been burned for electrical production is then available for applications like heating which are hard to quickly replace.

Russia supplies about 40-45% of the EU's total natural gas, so there's a big question about how quickly imports can be scaled up. The energy mix in the EU electrical grid is roughly a quarter natural gas so there's a fairly large amount which could potentially be shifted to another electrical source.

That leaves the question of how well all of those measures come together along with efficiency improvements and conservation (e.g. getting everyone in the EU to turn their thermostat down by 1°C would be roughly ⅓ of the total Russian imports according to https://www.iea.org/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-impo...). Given how seriously every government in NATO has been taking this, I would not be surprised to see things moving at faster paces than we're used to.

hatware• 4 years ago

Natural gas cannot be replaced by nuclear energy (or any other source of electricity) for many applications, at least not in the short term.

Yeah, turns out that the folks running things put on a hell of a campaign to keep nuclear from being researched, and keep fossil fuel profits rolling in.

This is the world we live in. It can take _months_ to switch if we organize ourselves properly, but good luck.

cm21872• 4 years ago

Electric heaters are cheap (it's just a glorified resistance). It's easy to switch home heating from gas to electric (with portable devices). Maybe not for every room but enough to survive a winter or two. Water heating is more complicated.

rlpb2• 4 years ago

My understanding is that a significant amount of natural gas is being used for electricity generation. Generate that electricity from another source, and more gas will immediately become available for direct heating.

Of course we don't have the capacity to do that today, and that's the problem.

missedthecue• 4 years ago

Yes, as I've said before, the problem for Germany and Europe more broadly is that nuclear reactors do not create natural gas.

pydry3• 4 years ago

Bearing in mind the contents of this graph and that unlike gas nuclear power isnt dispatchable, how much difference do you think it would make?

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/g...

ars• 4 years ago

From that graph it looks like it would solve the problem completely.

We are only talking about a 20 or 30% shortfall here.

spaceman_20202• 4 years ago

Besides heating, natural gas is a major component in many industrial processes. It's also used as input for a wide variety of petrochemical products. Can't make those from nuclear power.

People tend to overlook that nearly a quarter of all oil & gas goes into non-energy use. I can't think of a single modern product that doesn't use petroleum-based products in some way.

Johnny5552• 4 years ago

Yes, but if you reduce natural gas use where there are alternatives, then you free it up for things where it's 100% necessary.

oxff13• 4 years ago

Glad to let moralistic foreign policy drive the entire trade block down the shitter (it is moralistic FP because EU did not nut up and actually deploy to protect the so-precious-Ukraine, but instead threw its own economy and living standards into chaos just so they wouldn't be mistaken to be pro-Putler).

In short, insanity.

MauranKilom• 4 years ago

Right, starting WW3 by entering the theater would not have been "insanity". Obviously.

ceejayoz10• 4 years ago

"Let's not get nuked" isn't moralistic or insane, in my book.

A hot war between EU/NATO and Russia is not something anyone should advocate for, nor is letting Russia just take countries it wants on the edges of Europe. The current situation is a direct result of ignoring a long pattern of Russian aggression and expansionism in Georgia, Moldova, and Crimea.

oxff13• 4 years ago

I'm not recommending to have a nuclear war over who gets to collect vodka taxes in some East European town. I am pointing out that these people let moral foreign policy run their entire trade block and foreign policy choices, and not a cold rational calculus of any kind. All the self-sanctions have come to nothing: they have not and will not materially affect the end result of the war.

They've made me, as a citizen in an EU country, pay out of my nose for their moral betterness though, when we are not even a party to the war.

polotics2• 4 years ago

moralistic foreign policy as in not paying a country that sent its goons rape children? also putin said, lavrov said: we won't invade...

iso16312• 4 years ago

Yes.

Western countries have dealt with and enriched nasty reigimes one way or another for centuries

oxff13• 4 years ago

It is moralistic because moral hysteria ("goons raping children") is driving the fate of the entire trade block right now, your post was a perfect example.

Poor, lights out EU with 10-20% inflation will not in fact be a 'strong against Russia' or whatever (and this is without EU being in a war of any kind, lmao)

shafyy3• 4 years ago

Well, it's easy to sit on HN simplify super complex international situation to one dimension with the benefit of hindsight, isn't it?

oxff13• 4 years ago

I am not even using hindsight though. Even in Feb 1st you'd have to be ignorant to think the self-sanction regime will do anything.

V__• 4 years ago

I think this argument is very short-term thinking. Letting Russia take Ukraine would have enormous security implications long term.

I mean the lack of sanctions, hasn't stopped Russia after taking Crimea, so it's only fair to assume Ukraine wouldn't be the end to Russia's (Putin's) expansion either. They implied so many times. Their enormous investments in the destabilization of foreign politics, have made it a very real possibility that the U.S. might drop out of NATO, if Trump gets reelected. Orban and Erdogan are also wild cards.

Such a development would put Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland at risk.

In long, that isn't insanity at all.

oxff13• 4 years ago

Letting Russia take Ukraine would have enormous security implications long term

Yes, I am not disputing that.

I stated that the actions of EU (self-sanctions) have not, and will not affect whether or no Russia takes Ukraine though, this was the entire point of my post. It is part of what makes them so absurd.

An action that would affect would be to deploy there via strategic military action, but which our Moral Leaders are too scared (for right reasons, Russia has lots of nukes) to make. So they do this idiotic self-sanction regime to Feel Good (all paid by the tax payers and lower quality of life by people like me, who live in EU).

the_gipsy2• 4 years ago

We should have given up eastern Ukraine, negotiate peace. Better surrender a part than destroying the whole country. We get hyperinflation, giving money to USA's weapons industry, general destabilization, and a lot of dead Ukranians. All because it's politically weak to negotiate with Russia. Only Macron tried and he was sadly ridiculed. Does nobody remember how Sarkozy helped with Georgia's peace negotiations?

rlpb2• 4 years ago

Is that what you said about Crimea? Where does it stop?

throwawaysleep2• 4 years ago

Given that Germany ignored decades of warnings about this, let them take the brunt of the cuts.

bpodgursky• 4 years ago

Technically they didn't ignore the warnings, they actively laughed at them: https://twitter.com/marcusgilmer/status/1044604107997237249?...

jlangenauer• 4 years ago

There are so many people who want to see ordinary Germans suffer for decisions their government made. Do you think the pensioners who will freeze are the ones who decided on energy policy?

LudwigNagasena• 4 years ago

Are you saying that Germany is not a democracy?

veeti2• 4 years ago

How many of those pensioners naively participated in Germany's anti-nuclear movement in the 70's, 80's, 90's?

You reap what you sow. No sympathy for Russian puppets.

Ekaros• 4 years ago

They did vote for them. I'm all for people suffering consequences for their political choices. Be it freezing to death or dying as combatants in their own countries.

parkingrift2• 4 years ago

Do you think the pensioners who will freeze are the ones who decided on energy policy?

Yes. Yes, I do. They consistently voted for this future, and now they’ve got it.

iso16312• 4 years ago

I have sympathy for people in states like Russia, Saudi Arabia, North Korea when they suffer do to their governments. Changing governments there is tricky

The German population are well informed, well educated, and have a free media, they have a wide selection of political parties to choose from every few years, changing political direction is trivial, nobody will arrest you for talking about it, nobody will shoot you for voting the wrong way

kstrauser• 4 years ago

Overcoming addiction sucks. If your heroin dealer is arrested, maybe it’s a good time to consider stopping heroin. Withdrawal is going to be awful at first, but after a while, you’ve overcome it and you can move ahead with a better life.

nisa9• 4 years ago

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class people into poverty/problems which is the majority of the population.

Furthermore gas is used in almost every chemical process in some way or another - it's difficult to just disable a single industry because the network effects are not really known.

So this will be a shitshow because industry/lobbyists groups and regulation will probably collide at the expense of the tax-payer.

Still me and all of my friends are still fine with this. There is no alternative anyway - Russia is a fascist totalitarian state that declared war against Europe and is using gas as a weapon. After reading https://osce.usmission.gov/response-to-moscow-mechanism-repo... as just as a single example I just hope we can cut off Russian gas/oil as fast as possible.

edit: Looks like I was wrong on the burning of gas for electricity: https://energy-charts.info/charts/power/chart.htm?stacking=s...

edit: Damn'it just took a quick look at the calculation of the whole house and took a wrong number it's not 1600€/year but 700€/year - still triple that and it's still a problem.

spaceman_20202• 4 years ago

Have you seen any impact of the Euro's drop against the dollar in your day to day life? Say, things from American companies getting substantially more expensive, or salaries rising to keep pace with American counterparts?

Juliate2• 4 years ago

At this point, EUR/USD parity is way less perceivable and concerning in our daily lives than the gas/energy that is coming full speed towards us (seen from France), which is driving a lot of first and second order prices (heating, transportation in general, food, construction).

larusso• 4 years ago

I’m also from Germany so I feel I can answer. 1) No not yet anyways. The inflation is only really visible in gas/energy prices and groceries. I know that some EV car manufacturers had to increase prices but that has a different reason.

2) The german tech sector never tried to compete with US salaries. I for one have quite the income (base+bonus+other monetary benefits) but am way behind a Silicon Valley counterpart. And I mean with cost of living etc included.

My company is constantly adjusted the salaries. But we still base it on market conditions in Europe not world wide. And they don’t want to react to inflation so fast.

But that is only my experience. Major city in Germany btw.

theplumber15• 4 years ago

Everything gets more expensive(i.e restaurant bill, dentistey bill). I don't think it's due EUR/USD rate. It's oil & gas.

listless• 4 years ago

Serious question here - I swear I'm not trolling and I've been asking myself this same question...'

Would you be fine with it if you were on the margin?

I have this same attitude about inflation in the US and rising interest rates. Good - we need to get the situation under control. But I'm not living on the margin. It affects me, but not really. I'll be fine. So I don't really have any skin in the game here. Not yet.

nisa9• 4 years ago

I am on the margin. So is my family. I'm getting by fine at the moment but I'm just a little above the poverty line but have no reserves. I have no choice anyway. I just hope that if I can't pay the bills there will be a moratorium to cut energy for a while. I'm trying to buildup a reserve for a few months exactly for that situation. It's also not clear when the price hikes will hit the consumers so I hope I have a few months to set aside money for this.

jahnu• 4 years ago

I think this is a great and fair question. It’s all fun and games until our own life is impacted. I have a family and am thinking about this carefully as I live a good middle class life in Austria and we are similarly impacted wrt gas. At the moment my position is that I would be prepared to sacrifice a heck of a lot in order to not give in to a murderous regime. I would be prepared to drastically drop my standard of living for several years. My thinking is that in comparison to direct involvement in a hot war that would be peanuts. Now, ask me again next year once I’ve gone through a cold cold winter and whatever other luxuries I’m missing out on. I hope I can live up to my ideals. I have met refugees from Ukraine and they need us to step up so they can one day go home in peace.

jonah• 4 years ago

Long-term vs. short-term thinking.

Would you rather be colder in the winter for a couple years or live in a warzone and have your family killed and culture destroyed?

kennywinker5• 4 years ago

I don’t understand how any country could ask people on the margin to shoulder the worst effects of a burden that effects everyone, without offering support. During the early part of covid, we offered hazard pay for “front line workers”, and monthly support cheques for people who’s jobs were put on hold to keep people safe (restaurants, event venues, performers, etc). That didn’t last long, but it’s clearly the kind of mindset we need to tackle climate transitions - i.e. pay oil field workers to retrain for solar and wind, help support people who can’t afford to get off fracked methane gas heating yet. Etc.

Sholmesy• 4 years ago

This is a genuine question to ask for a lot of policy decisions that directly affect the person asked. I think it's fair to say "no I wouldn't be fine with it if I were on the margin", but still think it's a good idea. What is good for the individual, may be bad for society in the long term.

Which is a really callus and harsh position to take.

XorNot4• 4 years ago

The current problem in Germany is/was their political class is slow-walking aid to Ukraine under the general idea that the war will end and "normal relations" with Russia will mean that the ridiculous dependence on foreign gas supplies can be continued.

The alternative question, the one which should be being handled right now though is what % of people need support, and how do you help without worsening the problem? How quickly can you install solar, batteries and air-sourced heat pumps? What financing scheme gets the best bang for buck while helping those least able to afford the market fluctuation?

The question isn't "would you be fine with it at the margin?" - because the only reason to ask it is to sidle up to "maybe we should appease the nazis/just kind of not think about the genocide" under the auspices of "well there was no other choice so it's not really an immoral one".

The much better question is one of political accountability: why was the country made so vulnerable to this situation? Why were the vulnerable in the country made the most susceptible to this situation? Why were the alternatives ignored? And why is bold action not being taken now to fix this?

ZeroGravitas2• 4 years ago

Yes, because I'd know that if I was adversely affected, it was an explicit choice of the politicians running my country to force me to bear the cost, and I'd be angry at them, not anyone else.

As for inflation control, in mamy ways the whole point of that is to punish those at the margin, who might otherwise gain at the expense of those with large assets.

If you're about to say, what about the poor pensioners on a fixed income, see my first paragraph.

londons_explore3• 4 years ago

Fun fact:

Nearly all gas turbine power stations can also run on oil. Oil is usually a backup method in case the gas supply is disrupted, but it is possible for them to run on oil continuously. The exact oil type required differs, but some can use Diesel/Petrol/Kerosene/ethanol/hydrogen or sometimes even unrefined crude oil.

With gas prices so high, many are already running on oil, and that's part of the reason Diesel/Petrol prices are so high, even though the price of crude oil hasn't gone up much for months.

On charts of power generation, they still show up in the 'gas' category, even if they're burning oil. As far as I know, apart from the tanker of fuel arriving every 10 minutes day and night there is no way to know what they're burning.

SnowHill99022• 4 years ago

Not really true. Liquid fuels are much dirtier and reduce the lifespan or time between maintenances a lot. It’s used only as an emergency.

bilsbie• 4 years ago

I wonder if they could run on wood gas.

cpursley7• 4 years ago

Why are you and your friends okay with this? The increase in energy prices due to EU sanctions are making the Russian state fabulously wealthy right now. Russia has alternative customers, y'all don't have alternative suppliers.

If the EU doesn't come to their senses and embrace realpolitik, they are looking at literal deindustrialization and a plunge into mass poverty and social unrest. BMWs aren't built nor homes heated with unicorn butterfly karma.

kennywinker5• 4 years ago

Not OP but i suspect they’re ok with it because the other option is giving in to an authoritarian regime that is intent on expansion. I.e. war on their doorstep.

The realpolitik is speeding up the transition off oil and gas, and energy independence.

theplumber15• 4 years ago

We can do without energy from a rough state. We have 1-2 hard years ahead but I believe Europe will rebound stronger. It made no sense to have such close relationships with someone like Putin or be so dependent on fossil fuels. I take it as an opportunity for Europe and the whole world.

whatshisface• 4 years ago

it's difficult to just disable a single industry because the network effects are not really known.

Not to mention the unfairness of choosing one industry full of workers to say, "sorry, you're going to go jobless for the greater good," to.

excieve3• 4 years ago

As a Ukrainian, I sincerely thank you for writing this.

It is often disheartening to see how many people of HN don't realise what is happening (and, frankly, has been happening for 8 years) and then read cold opinions devoid of empathy. What is the compromise when the other side's goal is extermination?

mythrwy13• 4 years ago

I don't see the goal being extermination at all. If that were the case the tactics used would be much different.

Control, integration, subjugation, colonization, there are a lot of other words that are more fitting without the "genocide" hyperbole.

kmlx• 4 years ago

not sure if my bills are too low or yours are too high.

i live in a large flat in London with my partner. fully electric, no gas, but the building was awarded for being ultra efficient.

i used to pay £60/month for the electricity in summer and £100/month in winter. now it’s £80 during summer. winter heating involves shorts and tshirt. usual amenities: large oled, dishwasher every day, washing machine every other day etc etc

There is no alternative anyway - Russia is a fascist totalitarian state that declared war against Europe and is using gas a weapon.

sure, but inflation reached historical highs before the war even started:

https://www.ft.com/content/088d3368-bb8b-4ff3-9df7-a7680d4d8...

luckily for the today’s politicians, Russia invaded Ukraine, so now they can point to Putin instead of analysing what they did wrong (spoiler: we actually know what they did wrong).

nisa9• 4 years ago

Took the wrong number it's more like 700€/year. And we heated quite a bit in 2021 due to homeoffice and other causes. Sorry for the mishap.

TuringNYC2• 4 years ago

I've found a lot of bills are driven by how well insulated apartments are. Some leak heat left and right.

Another factor is how many open surface areas they have and the size of windows. I had an apartment that I rarely heated in the winter because it was wrapped on 5 of 6 sides by other apartments and the only exposed surface was a wall. Other apartments had multiple outside-facing walls/roofs.

Scarblac5• 4 years ago

Remember that Russia started delivering less gas than contracted last autumn. That was the moment from which energy prices started to spike.

In hindsight it was an obvious preparation for the war, making sure that Europe had lower gas reserves so that installing sanctions on Russia would hurt more.

antisthenes• 4 years ago

just a small 2 person flat in a small town
1600€/year

Something really doesn't add up here. If your bill is so high, why haven't you done anything to mitigate it? Can you add insulation?

What's the temperature kept at in the heating months? How much would lowering it lower the costs? Is there a possibility of putting solar collectors on the rooftop and heating with hot water? Even in winter they can get water up to 35-40 Celsius, which is considerably higher than comfort temperature.

nisa9• 4 years ago

You are correct. Just took a brief look in the calculation for the whole house and it's more like near 700€ - sorry for that. I've corrected it.

klpons• 4 years ago

There is an obvious alternative: The West must stop doubling down every 2 months and seek a diplomatic solution.

The U.S is relatively fine. Europe is being screwed over by the virtue-signaling policies. Europe canceled cheap long term Gazprom contracts and is now buying expensive gas (including from Russia!) on the spot market. Europe buys expensive liquid gas form the U.S.

Meanwhile, China is laughing and buys cheap Russian commodities using RMB instead of Dollars or Euros. India resells Russian oil.

The policies are a disaster, and Europe suffers from not standing up to Nuland, Lindsay Graham et al.

Luhansk/Donetsk are lost. Europe needs to deal with that and ensure that it stops there (don't give me that nonsense about Peter the Great or other propaganda).

Scarblac5• 4 years ago

If Europe gives in now, then it is certain that it _won't_ stop there. It would mean Russia can do whatever it wants, and will.

It's war. We have to win it. Yes that is expensive, but Russia commits genocide in the areas they occupy, so there is no alternative.

leoedin• 4 years ago

Living in the UK, US policy on Ukraine barely registers. It's surprised me how strong most people's feelings are that we need to do everything we can to cut out Russia. This isn't an economic question any more, it's emotional. War in Europe is suddenly a reality, and it doesn't feel very far away, even in London.

The UK may have left the EU, but we still have millions of Eastern Europeans living here.

Whether this sentiment stays when winter comes and energy prices really start to bite is another question - but right now our attitude towards Russia is driven by our own emotions - nothing to do with American virtue signalling.

btilly12• 4 years ago

No. Absolutely not.

You can't understand anything Russia does until you understand that it has a bully's mindset. Anything you negotiate with them just emboldens them to do more to you later. When confronted, they escalate but there is a lot less muscle behind that than it seems.

Therefore any negotiation of the kind that you describe will embolden them to reach for more as soon as they think they can. Appeasing Russia will no more prevent further aggression than giving Czechoslovakia to Hitler avoided WW 2.

Also you completely misunderstand the war situation. The current phase has been a war of attrition with a slow retreat. The Ukrainian counteroffensive will come in August or September, once Russia's ability to wage war has been exhausted. From projects that I've seen, it is an even bet whether there will be a COMPLETE Russian collapse before the end of the year. (Yes, they won't even get to keep Crimea.)

If you want to understand the military situation in detail, I recommend https://www.understandingwar.org/publications. You don't have to follow it in detail. For example if you'd read https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offens... a couple of months ago, you'd understand everything you need to understand to realize that Russia won't be able to hold the territory that they have taken.

danans5• 4 years ago

Still me and all of my friends are still fine with this. There is no alternative anyway

There is an alternative: heat pumps. The problem is the upfront cost, which needs to be lowered through economies of scale.

skrause2• 4 years ago

Heat pumps are not an alternative in the next few years because there are not enough available on the market. I know someone who wanted to buy one for his house in Germany and the waiting list is more than 1-2 years right now.

DeWilde2• 4 years ago

I share the sentiment regarding Russia's fascist regime but it seems much more realistic that the EU will just silently walk back on the embargoes. After all, if the populace gets too uneasy with higher energy bills the politicians won't have any issues dealing business with Russia.

And with the support for energy embargoes already falling to 32% in Germany[0] in mid July this seems like the most likely outcome.

Question is will Russia then attempt to hurt Europe by blocking gas deliveries like it is doing now with Nord Stream 1.

[0] https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-germany-gas-i...

TuringNYC2• 4 years ago

> Question is will Russia then attempt to hurt Europe by blocking gas deliveries like it is doing now with Nord Stream 1.

Sorry for the naive question, but are the Nord Stream gas deliveries:

1. blocked because sanctions dont allow for commerce/transactions,

2. blocked to hurt the customer (Europe) by not transacting even when transacting is possible?

rmbyrro3• 4 years ago

I remember Trump saying that "Germany is a captive of Russia" [1] because of the prospect of weaponized gas supply cuts.

I also hate to say, but, at that particular moment, the man was right.

This is why political extremism is bad. Nobody in Europe listened to him. Had him be more respectful, polite and balanced in his communication, maybe he could have convinced Germany to anticipate what they're scrambling to do now...

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liGZGGQTYQk

_ph_4• 4 years ago

A lot of bad country leaders have been right at times. I am trying to resist to invoke Godwin's law here...

throw0101a• 4 years ago

I remember Trump saying that "Germany is a captive of Russia" [1] because of the prospect of weaponized gas supply cuts.

People have been saying this since the 1980s:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod_pipeli...

slaw2• 4 years ago

So you pay 700€/year for electricity and twenty times more for rent. I think energy is still inexpensive compared to rent prices.

nisa9• 4 years ago

700€/year for heating in a rather modern flat (modernized 15 years ago) add to that 1200€/year for electricity - rent is without heating around 5000€/year here but not a lot of families can stomach a tripling of heating costs and likely growing electricity costs. Consider the price of gas stays at 15ct/kWh that an additional 1500€/year - for most people in Germany a full month of earnings.

And my situation is rather in the best-case bucket. Lot's of people live in badly insulated houses or flats that have much higher energy costs. I guess it won't matter that that much for upper middle class families - maybe they postpone their expensive vacation or don't buy another SUV but everyone that is poor or just survives without any chance to buildup reserves this could get nasty.

tim333• 4 years ago

In terms of fighting Russia we probably get more bang for the buck by sending more rockets rather than cutting the gas. At the moment Russia shows no sign of running out of cash but is having issues with all their ammo stores exploding.

Spooky232• 4 years ago

The whole Ukraine/Russia conflict underscores how poor the strategic position of Europe and the US is with respect to Europe.

We’ve been phoning it in since the Clinton era and assuming that “norms” and oligarchs would keep Russia at bay. End of the day they got tanks, nukes and are learning what they can get away with.

yrgulation4• 4 years ago

No, most europe and the us told germany it relies too much on a single source of energy. Schroeder, Merkel, both were in bed with russia’s oil and gas tsars. Nord Stream’s ceo is a former stasi officer, ursula is corrupt and many many alternative pipelines have been pushed back in favour of we know who. Please dont mix everyone else in. As you can see some german commenters even admit to germany wanting to push for eu wide de nuclearisation. Some even go as far as saying germany shouldnt get involved in east europe - despite it making copious amounts of profits from the region, with many policies actually preventing development there in favour of germany. The eu needs reform so that it works nicely for all members. It can be done but germany needs to take a welcome step back and to stop sanctioning allies each time they have dissenting opinions. Germany’s economy was subsidised by dirty energy and the policies of the eu it controls have done it favour too much and too long.

bakuninsbart• 4 years ago

Who in Europe isn't heavily affected by the gas shortage? How is this Germany's fault? To me it seems like a lot of the smaller/weaker countries in Europe just always need a scapegoat to blame when things get difficult.

TheLoafOfBread3• 4 years ago

Correct. This was known in advance that Russia will inevitably use natural gas for political reasons, but Germans weren't listening to "russophobic" Eastern Europe, instead they were actively trying to undermine Nuclear Power together with nuclear hypocrites from Austria (anti-Nuclear fanatics, suing everyone in EU who happens to have NPP, but has no problem to buy energy from Czech Republic NPP Temelin)

prostoalex• 4 years ago

If only somebody foresaw this

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit-idUSBREA2P0...

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-scolded-germany-for...

yrgulation4• 4 years ago

Ah yes about trump. I distinctly remember people rightfully laughing at him for his “clean coal” statements. Guess what country in europe relies heavily on “clean coal”?

d0mine• 4 years ago

Yeah, it is much better to buy for 3x price from war profiters if they feel generous /s

landemva• 4 years ago

USA past couple decades involvement with NATO has led us here. John McCain and Lindsey Graham went to Ukraine a few years ago and cheered this on.

Gravityloss• 4 years ago

Unfortunately Brunsbüttel terminal only finally got the go ahead in January 2022 and it will take 3.5 years to build. It's anyway a good alternative source. https://www.gem.wiki/Brunsb%C3%BCttel_LNG_Terminal

Increasing insulation and installing and building more heat pumps are obvious ways to save on gas. Italy used some big EU subsidies to pay 100% of people's home and house renovations. Would something like that be possible in Germany? 50% subsidy for insulation renovation. Run all the styrofoam, rock wool and glass wool factories nonstop in three shifts. Found new heat pump factories. Train employees.

nickserv• 4 years ago

A lot of manufacturing for these materials aren't in Europe though. New factories and associated logistics chains, finding and training workers, these things are difficult to set up in a few months, never mind the actual process of renovating millions of homes.

greggsy• 4 years ago

It certainly shouldn’t be ignored, simply because it might take some time. Targeting public housing and (responsibly) incentivising landlords to improve less efficient homes would go a long way.

1234letshaveatw3• 4 years ago

my god- the EU redistributed tax revenue from member countries to fund 100% of home improvements in Italy? I can't even imagine.

jamesrr39• 4 years ago

You don't have to imagine, it is commonplace around the world. Lots of tax revenue from countries all around the world is distributed to different areas of the country/world (obvious e.g. foreign aid). If the amount of tax isn't excessive, allows everyone to have a good standard of living, and is resulting in something positive, why not?

theplumber15• 4 years ago

What's so wrong helping a neighbour? That reduces the energy costs for everyone around the world not only Italy.

albertopv2• 4 years ago

You don't have, it's false, it's all plain old italian debt.

nawitus2• 4 years ago

Apparently heat pumps are sold out and all the workers who are able to install them are booked up for the year. It's a bit late for drastic improvement there.

bell-cot2• 4 years ago

The old cynic in me wonders what it would take, for Germany to care about building major new infrastructure fast. Asteroid Dino-Doom 2.0 headed straight for Dortmund, and the needed interceptor rockets stacked like logs outside the barely-started launch facility?

hans17293• 4 years ago

When covid hit, governments across Germany realized wait, we need videoconferencing for students!. For the prime ministers and their ministers of education, this meant they could either shine in comparison to the others, or the opposition would rip them apart in the next election.

Suddenly: money everywhere, zero red tape, worry about compliance later, get it done now.

So, if the political will is there, things are possible, and I can easily imagine our country going a lot harder than that if the danger was imminent enough.

albertopv2• 4 years ago

It's false, Italy didn't use EU subsidies, it's all plain italian debt.

adrianN5• 4 years ago

Berlin still has some 25000 street lanterns that run on gas. Each of them burns enough gas to heat an apartment.

jonathan-adly4• 4 years ago

There are solutions, just unpopular and require a political class that is not fickle and weak.

Solution #1. Capitulate to Putin and treat Russia as a regional power that can gobble and punish its neighbors when they stray too far.

Solution #2. Forget about the climate for the next 5 years, turn on all coal, nuclear powerplants.

Solution #3. Put the Euro printer in overdrive and pay whatever price needed for the little natural gas that's out there and the expense of transportation.

#3 is probably the worst, but also - the easiest for a fickle and weak political class to do. So, that's what's happening.

Won't be surprised if we get hyperinflation in the EU in the winter. The ECB barely functions in good times with its one monetary policy, but different budgets nonsense.

throwawaysleep2• 4 years ago

Solution #2. Forget about the climate for the next 5 years, turn on all coal, nuclear powerplants.

Nuclear power is perfectly compatible with climate goals.

jonathan-adly4• 4 years ago

I am with ya there. But the Germans populace have been thoroughly brain-washed that nuclear is bad. So, better just to tell them : "its bad, but needed because we are in a war."

tedivm• 4 years ago

Yeah if anything this should be a lesson to build more clean energy, including nuclear.

inglor_cz4• 4 years ago

I am a fan of nuclear energy, but German nuclear powerplants have been underinvested for years because of the pending Atomausstieg (nuclear exit). It didn't make economic sense to maintain facilities that were on their way out anyway.

So they are likely not in shape to be turned on again.

laverya• 4 years ago

Worst case if you short out all the safeties and just run it anyways is a meltdown, but Germany's reactors have containment structures. So a meltdown just means that the decommissioning process for your reactor has become a LOT more expensive, but it's not going to cause another Chernobyl.

Similarly, if they were willing to say "fuckit, this may end up being extremely expensive in 10 years but we need it now or we freeze to death", they could start building (potentially) unsafe reactors in unapproved locations with inadequate documentation of their material supply chains and have that ready by February. Yes, there are long lead times for things like approved reactor pressure vessels. But if you're willing to go back to Hanford, Washington [0] safety standards that all goes out the window, and the math on deaths almost certainly still works out.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanford_Site

MichaelRazum• 4 years ago

According to the EU nuclear power is green. So solution #2 would save the climate, based on that logic. Actually inflation was already there before the war, so it is mostly because of #3.

dfsegoat• 4 years ago

Also according to the EU:

Natural gas is now green in some circumstances. I'm not sure what to make of this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/europe-natural-gas-nuclear-a...

secondcoming• 4 years ago

The EU classifying nuclear power as being Green is a recent development.

dathinab• 4 years ago

Nuclear is climate friendly!!

Just not environment friendly.

Especially for "longer living" species like humans.

I don't understand why its supper common for people not understand that climate and environmental friendly often overlap but are not always the same and sometimes in direct conflict.

For climate protection nuclear power is currently probably the best choice we have (globally).

But for environmental protection and protection of human health it isn't.

Anyway coal is worse for both and tbh. the German green party should have focused on getting out of coal not nuclear power.

akmarinov3• 4 years ago

Solution #1 - we already tried that, we gave Putin Crimea in 2014, everything was chill for 7-8 years and now we have this mess.

If we give him Donetsk and Luhansk, he'll just be back for more + Moldova in 5-6 years.

leereeves• 4 years ago

In 5-6 years, Europe should be able to free themselves of Russian energy and build a military capable of standing up to Russia. (Ukraine is almost managing the latter on their own.)

jonathan-adly4• 4 years ago

Yea, Crimea would have been the perfect time to realize that depending on a rational, happy Russia for gas is a bad idea.

Don't worry though, America is repeating the same mistakes with China. So, its not just Europe.

oxff13• 4 years ago

How are you in charge of not giving or giving some East European watering holes to Russia? Can you establish the set of facts here.

I can tell that a real NATO deployment to D & L would dramatically change the strategic goal setting of Russia, materially alter the outcome, but not sanctions if that's what you are suggesting as deciding the fate of these places.

whiteboardr• 4 years ago

#2 This won’t help the millions of people who depend on their places being heated by gas - it’s going to be an existential threat for many.

First financially, then physically once the pipes run dry.

You can’t fix the infrastructure at that scale this quickly and winter isn’t far away.

rwmj• 4 years ago

#3 can't create power infrastructure out of nothing in 6 months.

Option #4 is ration gas. It won't be pleasant but it's possible.

dehrmann• 4 years ago

3 doesn't work because no amount of money solves the supply shortage in the near term.

olivermarks• 4 years ago

https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/small-modular-reactor...

I'm on the fence about an all electric future- we simply don't have the grid capacity in most parts of the world - but the Germans and French who control the EU should have been developing SMNR years ago. They are now in an energy checkmate situation with a hostile country with an economy the size of Italy. Not clever,

raverbashing3• 4 years ago

France is looking into small reactors it seems

But has RR actually shipped one of these?

theplumber15• 4 years ago

I believe NuScale is leading the way

XCSme2• 4 years ago

This is why I think the more likely future is for each house to have their own electricity generator (solar panels?) and batteries to store the energy.

lazide6• 4 years ago

The capex to do that was unreachable for the vast majority of the population, even when money was ‘cheap’.

xyzzyz2• 4 years ago

In Europe, much fewer people live in houses, and thanks to the dense, walkable cities they enjoy, they have much fewer roof and yard space to put the panels. Also, unlike US, most of Europe doesn’t have huge swaths of hot and sunny plains that are currently not used for anything valuable. Look at the satellite view of Germany, France or Poland: it’s all farms, with occasional forests.

grapeskin3• 4 years ago

They are now in an energy checkmate situation with a hostile country with an economy the size of Italy.

I think looking at national threats by their GDP is kind of weird. Afghanistan led to the downfall of the USSR but had basically nothing going for it economically. The US also blew decades of effort and money. ISIS plowed through its region with sheer mongol-like savagery and managed to wreak havoc in major western countries sometimes as well. America went basically all out trying to stop Vietnam, then one of the poorest countries on earth, and got nowhere.

Gas is currently cheap and that makes Russia’s economy look small. If prices, say, quintuple globally and Russia keeps pumping out the same quantity, that’s a huge jump despite few internal changes and they’d have the world by the balls. Meanwhile, the Swiss could decide to all retire tomorrow permanently and drop their relatively huge GDP (half of Russia’s) to 1% of what it is now and the world would probably shrug and move on.

Russia is depended on globally for food, fuel, and loads of random resources. They’re just temporarily considered cheap while some things (eg banking) are currently considered high value. That could change very quickly.

OOD2• 4 years ago

America went basically all out trying to stop Vietnam, then one of the poorest countries on earth, and got nowhere.

This is ahistorical. The US in no way, shape, or form when "all out" trying to stop North Vietnam. It was a poor country, but it was heavily armed and resupplied by the USSR and China, including leveraging some of the newest fighter jets, SAMs, etc. the USSR had to offer.

dntrkv• 4 years ago

If we wait for our grid capacity to improve before we transition, we'll be waiting for decades to come.

We need to quickly transition now to force the government to fund improved transmission and supply. Our governments aren't great at building things for future needs, but when your citizens are in danger of going without electricity, you bet your ass these politicians will do what needs to be done.

As an example, look at the mRNA vaccine development.

atlasunshrugged3• 4 years ago

I don't think it's fair to blame France, they have long been pushing for nuclear as evidenced by their energy sources being hugely reliant on domestic nuclear rather than foreign energy. It's really been the German greens hellbent on holding back nuclear across the EU.

wewxjfq3• 4 years ago

on domestic nuclear rather than foreign energy

What a statement.

It's really been the German greens hellbent on holding back nuclear across the EU

The German Greens, stalling investments into nuclear energy across the world. A powerful cabal.

an-unknown• 4 years ago

I don't think it's fair to blame France, they have long been pushing for nuclear as evidenced by their energy sources […]

… and right now you can see how "successful" they are with their nuclear power plants: so "successful" that they have to import energy because a lot of their nuclear power plants are currently offline, due to unexpected problems related to safety. Even better, the current hot weather also causes serious problems and reduces power output.

ibeckermayer2• 4 years ago

Related content

"Trump: Germany 'Totally Controlled By Russia'" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LLZBVTid4I

German bureaucrats laugh at Trump after he says the country could become totally dependent on Russian energy: https://twitter.com/marcusgilmer/status/1044604107997237249

credit_guy2• 4 years ago

I generally despise Trump, but here he looks like a visionary and the German diplomats look like morons (in hindsight, at least).

bamboozled4• 4 years ago

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day :)

Have to hand it to him this time...he was so right.

sdfhdhjdw32• 4 years ago

I'm still reeling with what I just watched....

theplumber15• 4 years ago

But "Russia has been treated so unfairy" and "European Union is the biggest foe of the United States" not Russia or China...So let's listen to what that clown(Trump) says next, right? Germany's dependency on Russia's energy has been well known for decades.

sdfhdhjdw32• 4 years ago

What's the explanation for this?

I mean, surely the explanation isn't that Trump is secretly a well informed and thoughtful person?

lazide6• 4 years ago

That he likes calling out an occasional hypocrite now and then, and is familiar with Russian power dynamics in the west?

ibeckermayer2• 4 years ago

My explanation is that it doesn’t actually take a lot of deep thought to understand this dynamic. The guy who runs your local hardware store could’ve figured this one out, given the information.

The problem is that the over “educated” and credentialed class of political elites weren’t ever taught elementary common sense in their textbooks, and have never operated within institutions that have held them accountable for it.

Ergo the outsized elite hatred for Trump among the managerial elite caste, who shone a spotlight on the astonishing triviality of their ineptitude.

jblich• 4 years ago

Really, they were told by Obama in 2014 w/ crimea https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells...

Trump no erudite

nootropicat• 4 years ago

Both countries drew the ire of the others, and for a time, it seemed as if the European Union's internal market would break apart under pressure from the crisis due to the egoism of the member states. A repeat this time around is to be avoided at all costs.

Because this time solidarity is in Germany's interests, duh.

Germany Blocks Joint Gas Purchases
But resistance is coming from large natural gas utilities in Germany, like RWE, and from industrial customers as well. They want to buy their own gas and fear that they won't be allocated sufficient supplies by the EU.

Seems like the German definition of solidarity is that they get gas from others.

akmarinov3• 4 years ago

Break out the coal, boys.

It's not like the US is in any way trying to be green.

Honestly, China is Earth's best shot at climate change.

usrn3• 4 years ago

China is

1) Not self sufficient, they have to import food from the US

2) Burning nearly a million more cubic feet of coal per capita than the US does (and they have way more people, so that means they're really burning far far more coal)

Honestly I'm not sure how you thought that made any sense.

EDIT: (out of comment quota)

China also installs more renewables than anyone else

I'm sure that's great for the companies producing those, I'm not convinced that will lead to them burning less coal (although their coming demographic collapse almost certainly will.) Germany was in a pretty similar situation too and the current situation is the consequence.

theplumber15• 4 years ago

China also installs more renewables than anyone else

bilbo0s5• 4 years ago

China imports food from the US.

China does not have to import food from the US.

In all honesty, China and the US are unique nations in that they don't have to import anything from anyone. It's politically and financially convenient for them to import the things they import, so they do. But they are both perfectly capable of meeting their own needs with domestic production if the issue is pressed. Even where they don't currently manufacture a thing, they're both able to ramp up manufacturing of that thing in a timeframe unthinkable for other nations.

aftbit• 4 years ago

Oh yea, China who emitted 2x as much CO2 in 2017 as they did in 2005, vs the US who has been flat since 1990[1]. China who is operating 1100 coal plants vs the US who is operating 240[2]. Sure, China's growing their economy, and they have ~4x as many people as the US, but they are not some bastion of clean green energy or anything.

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_di...

2: https://www.statista.com/statistics/859266/number-of-coal-po...

raverbashing3• 4 years ago

My uninformed bet is that a) Russia likes money more and b) if they wanted to cut the delivery of gas they would have done it already

They like playing the panic angle of course, and closing the tap once in a while, but I think it's mostly hot air

rebuilder2• 4 years ago

I’m guessing Russia will fully cut off gas to EU when it seems that either the EU is about to ban gas imports or turning the taps off will likely break the EU.

pirate787• 4 years ago

This was also the argument about Ukraine in early February.

rolobio• 4 years ago

The Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Europe is currently off. Its a planned maintenance however. But what if they run into "issues" and the maintenance takes a few weeks? A month? Pure speculation of course, but these things do happen. I doubt they would keep it off forever, Putin likes Europe being dependent on him.

raverbashing3• 4 years ago

Yes but there are other pipelines (and they still continue pumping)

sorenjan4• 4 years ago

Russia is making more money on their oil and gas exports now than last year [0], due to higher prices. Imagine what could happen when winter comes and Russia shuts off the gas deliveries until EU pulls back sanctions. Would all countries stand united even though some are very dependent on that gas to heat their homes? Will people still care enough about a war that's almost a year old by then?

[0] https://www.statista.com/chart/27615/daily-russian-fossil-fu...

etempleton• 4 years ago

The EU and the US need to have been building new nuclear power plants yesterday. Not everywhere in the world is ideal for nuclear due to the potential for significant natural disaster, but much of Western Europe and the United States are perfectly safe with the latest nuclear reactor designs.This was known before the current energy crisis and there has been complete inaction for decades.

Coupled with solar, wind and existing hydro, it is our best path forward for sustainable future in the mid term. It is not just about being "green" or saving the planet from global warming. It is about energy independence.

bilbo0s5• 4 years ago

Everyone wants to build nuclear.

People get quiet when they realize that the energy investors won't pay for it so you end up with Uncle Sam footing the bill. Any analyst just looks at the financial disaster that is Vogtie and it becomes impossible to justify investment. Unless the government bankrolls you.

In the US, we need to get comfortable with the government owning large swathes of energy production capacity. Until we are, and are willing to pay the taxes and authorize the disbursements to make these things happen, nuclear will not happen in the big way we need it to.

q1w25• 4 years ago

How does China build 24 Gen III+ reactors in 10 years, and we spend billions in court arguing about environmental reviews.

We F ourselves because we don't allow construction companies to do their jobs.

belorn2• 4 years ago

If we just went based on the political message in the past then Germany could just use that massive amount of solar and wind they have been subsidizing for the last few decades, and for heating they could simply use that green hydrogen. Both of those were supposed to be both cheaper than any other for of energy.

More realistically, this is a time where most countries in EU should be scrambling to throw money at new energy projects and energy modernization. That should help with both the energy crisis long term, and focusing money on internal infrastructure seems to have good track records for reducing inflation. Reducing imports dependency from Russia, especially in a different currency, should strengthen the euro.

lazide6• 4 years ago

The political message was always wishful thinking - even with Germany’s massive spend, there was never a realistic way to replace baseline heating needs in the winter without spending at least 10x more.

Most off grid systems have some sort of generator for the long stretches of cloudy days, and in a cold climate, pretty much everyone uses fossil fuels for heating off grid due to the energy density, reliability, and low cost.

Anything else starts being really cost prohibitive if you do the math on ‘I get X amount of heat during these long tail scenarios or the pipes burst/I freeze’.

Physics is a bitch.

bamboozled4• 4 years ago

I love the absolute BS of the world in 2022.

The whole world is supposed to be off fossil fuels by now, and here we are hoping and praying Germany and the rest of the EU gets enough fossil fuels to burn this winter.

If humanity was to look at itself in the mirror, it would see an image stupid freaking hypocrite clown.

Solar, Nuclear, Wind, get after it, it's so late now it almost feels like a waste of time...

usrn3• 4 years ago

Part of the reason Germany is still stuck on fossil fuels was the ultimatums of the environmentalists that killed their nuclear power. IMO if they really care about the environment they need to chill out so people can work out how to transition. Hard rules like this will first result in desperation which causes people to make sub-optimal choices like you're seeing now and eventually economic collapse which will absolutely destroy the environment (think of all the messes the USSR made when it fell apart.) Whatever regime replaces the one that causes this probably will care a lot less about the environment too.

bamboozled4• 4 years ago

Do we really need to keep blaming hippies?

I've read from a few different places now that people who are part of Nordstream were powerful in German politics and had an incentive to push Gas over nuclear.

I'm sure there are multiple factors at play.

laerus• 4 years ago

the Great Filter is approaching

RGamma• 4 years ago

And all this crap from the madness of a few people plus broken systems.

I used to think the great filter thesis stems from the natural hostility of the universe, but I'm now convinced it stems from the danger of monkey brain.

tomputer2• 4 years ago

Gas prices were already rising since 2020 but yes, the Ukraine/Russia conflict made it worse.

Below a graph from the Dutch TTF Gas Futures from the past 2 years. The contract price is in Euros and Euro cents per MWh.

https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur...

Edit: those are just numbers on a screen but in real life that means the energy/gas bill increases between 5x - 10x if this continues.

q1w25• 4 years ago

Russian influence operations have been sabotaging western gas production via "green party" lobbyists.

They've done the same for nuclear.

They've planned this invasion and freezing Europe this winter is all part of their plan.

sremani• 4 years ago

Germany wanted to have and eat it cake too. It worked to an extent during Merkel. They made European South pay the hefty price while humming on their exports using Cheap Russian gas/oil and supplying manufacturing components to china and finished goods to rest of Europe and America.

Russia is not some bit player in Oil and Natural gas industry, 5 million barrels per day ? That is a huge amount of hydrocarbons to replace. Of course, Europe will scramble to find alternatives and before they go cold, will fuck the Global South again from its limited supplies, it already started happening - Pakistan got its NG supplier broke contract and sold gas under contract to Europe.

Europe is going to get screwed but in an effort save its ass it will create a frenzy in global south that would tip many countries into absolute choas.

dukeofdoom• 4 years ago

When ideology meets reality. Expensive, overbuilt capacity for Wind and Solar in countries with not much sun or wind for most of the year. Now with the declining Euro will make purchasing energy even more expensive. Fertilizer shortage and declining working age population. And threats to the free flow of goods across the world. Inflation is here to stay. It will be interesting to see how many governments fall in the next few years the way Sri Lanka's did.

sorenjan4• 4 years ago

Frankly, I think it's embarrassing that such a large part of Europe is still so dependent on natural gas. It's being portrayed as a problem now due to economics, but global warming and making yourself dependent on authoritarian regimes has been an issue for much longer than that. The switch should have happened much sooner, but I guess the money was always more important and Russian gas was cheap enough to forget about the external costs.

And it's not only about finding other energy sources, it's also about using the energy in a smarter way. Better insulated houses and heat pumps work well here in northern Europe, why hasn't this been a priority the last ten years at least?

I'm paying much more for my electricity now even though we hardly use any natural gas in this country, because we're exporting electricity to countries that do, driving up our prices. Their shortsightedness is costing me money and adding more CO2 to our atmosphere. If it was only because of the war in Ukraine I wouldn't mind as much, but come winter and millions of people in other countries are going to burn expensive Russian gas to heat poorly insulated houses leaking heat like a sieve.

q1w25• 4 years ago

Because they are morons and shut down their nuclear plants and bet everything on Russian gas and renewables that aren't even designed to provide baseload.

They absolutely should have seen this coming.

sorenjan4• 4 years ago

Might be true for Germany, but other countries are also dependent on natural gas. In 2018 natural gas accounted for 45% of Italy's electricity production [0], in 2021 28% of Hungary's electricity came from gas [1]. And that's just electricity, 63% [2] of Europeans energy consumption is used for heating, I would guess a large part of that is gas as well.

This is bigger than Germany closing some nuclear plants, although that obviously isn't helping. Despite knowing that natural gas is a fossil fuel that we need to stop using the cost of using it hasn't been high enough to dissuade using it. This sudden increase in cost and the crisis it has and will cause really shows that economy is the only thing that matters, people will continue burning whatever they can get as long as it's cheap, since the external cost of global warming isn't properly included in the price. Neither was security risks, and we're all paying for that now.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/873552/energy-mix-in-ita...

[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235432/hungary-distribu...

[2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...

adrianN5• 4 years ago

If Germany kept its nuclear plants it would still be almost as dependent on Russian gas as it is today. Homes aren't heated with nuclear power, they're heated with gas. Industrial processes don't run on nuclear power either, they run on gas. Germany doesn't produce a lot of its electricity with gas turbines.

pumnikol• 4 years ago

European LNG spot market prices went up by much more than an order of magnitude between Summer 2020 and Spring 2022. They also went up for other regions while Russia has no problems selling gas outside of Europe, even with steep mark-ups. It pains me to write this, but Russia is coming out on top because of Europe cutting itself off from her gas.

Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

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