Elevated error rate across multiple models

https://status.claude.com/incidents/jbhf20wjmzrf

by rob • 29 days ago

213 271 29 days ago

status.claude.com

rob• 29 days ago

Getting consistent "API Error: 500 Internal server error" messages in Claude Code right now (10:20 AM EST)

roselan• 29 days ago

for me it's

API Error: 529 Overloaded. This is a server-side issue, usually temporary — try again in a moment. If it persists, check https://status.claude.com.

boulos• 29 days ago

529 and not 429?

rzk• 29 days ago

Their completion endpoint[*] is returning 503 with a `fault filter abort` response

[*] https://claude.ai/api/organizations/<ORG_ID>/chat_conversations/<CONV_ID>/completion

throwaway20273• 29 days ago

Is it that time again?

mdrzn• 29 days ago

The rainbow has to keep being a rainbow.

ClaudeCode still has a 99.27 % uptime

ClaudeCowork has 99.52 % uptime

ClaudeForGovernment has 99.93 % uptime

fearmerchant• 29 days ago

I must be unlucky because I'm in that .73% way more than .73% of the time.

Schiendelman2• 29 days ago

That's how outages on very popular systems work - there's no downtime when most engineers are sleeping, since they're not under load.

lordgrenville• 29 days ago

There was a post on here the other day explaining this exact phenomenon: https://brooker.co.za/blog/2026/06/19/waiting.html

TheSilva• 29 days ago

So can we hire back those Oracle workers to write some code now?

halfmatthalfcat4• 29 days ago

Incredible how we can claim productivity increases when its either Claude or Github shitting the bed every other day. It must even itself out to a net neutral gain in the long term.

spiderfarmer4• 29 days ago

If that 0.07% downtime was holding me back I wouldn't publicly admit that.

halfmatthalfcat4• 29 days ago

Gotta keep my 100x developer cred, that 0.07% is everything.

maccard2• 29 days ago

When that downtime happens is way more important than the amount of it. Imagine if your payroll system was down for 8 hours a month, but it just so happened to be the day payroll do their calculations?

secretslol2• 29 days ago

'Claude for Government' is the only one with 0.07% downtime, claude.ai has 0.89% downtime and claude code 0.74% - imo, that's a lot of downtime!

brookst7• 29 days ago

Claude is 0.89% downtime. Getting close to one nine.

There aren't many tools that remain useful at that rate.

dpedu6• 29 days ago

I don't understand this comment. At worst, we're just back to the baseline - working without AI help.

halfmatthalfcat4• 29 days ago

Yes, that's what the comment means.

We are back to the baseline. The availability of our tools isn't adding anything in the long term because the productivity increase we get from the tooling is negated by the time we're back to doing it the old fashioned way due to downtime, so there is no claimed productivity increase espoused by the pontificators of the tooling.

deaton• 29 days ago

With atrophy to our not-AI ability to do things

abroszka33• 29 days ago

The baseline is forever gone. Good luck convincing people to contribute to StackOverflow v2 after this.

dakiol• 29 days ago

The bunch of MD files in the codebase is becoming "tech" debt. It's just English prose, sure, but thousands of lines of English prose. Terse. Succinct. Difficult (if not impossible) to maintain manually without LLMs. That's not "baseline"

cromka7• 29 days ago

At some point it won't be true. Same with handwriting, nowadays I feel like a 7 y/o when I need to write something on a piece of paper...

spiderfarmer4• 29 days ago

Always good because people will look for and try alternatives.

yanis_t2• 29 days ago

Are you implying using their brains?

ra0x3• 29 days ago

status.claude.com looks like a holiday christmas ornaments

dcchuck• 29 days ago

Our team calls this "full three pepper blend" ;)

dpedu6• 29 days ago

https://anthropicisdown.com/

braindeadly• 29 days ago

Looks like Mike and Ike candy.

bflesch4• 29 days ago

The ridiculous marketing message about their oh-so-good-we-cant-release-them models is just the cherry on top.

zyf• 29 days ago

Strawberry garden

jakeydus• 29 days ago

Another day, another Claude outage.

iLemming3• 29 days ago

Goddamit, like losing the ability for coding without any Internet wasn't enough, now I have to forget how to code without Claude?

ps. if you say you still capable of developing software without the Internet, you're lying. Perhaps, to your own self.

throwaway20273• 29 days ago

I'm perfectly capable of programming without internet or AI but I would admit it would take longer and in the modern world we live in it's often not economical to do so. After programming for over 20 years you start to get in that flow automatically at least you used to do so. I don't know if people starting out to program will be able to, but most experienced developers will feel this way I assume.

hgoel• 29 days ago

It depends on the language but agreed. If I didn't have internet or AI access, I'd still be able to pull out manpages or dig into source code.

I wouldn't like it and it'd be slower, but I still understand my environment in sufficient depth to work without external info if I absolutely have to. Even with AI, once in a while I ask it to just give me some hints instead of solving something for me, so I'm forced to do the work.

iLemming3• 29 days ago

I'm perfectly capable of programming without internet

Me too, but let's be honest, I'm not talking about "Hello world!" experiments, I'm talking about developing usable software. I'm pretty sure, you won't be patching a Linux kernel driver on your own machine without googling stuff.

I've learned to code years before the Internet, but we've had it for so long, I'm honestly not sure anymore if I'm truly capable of building [real] stuff while offline. And I can't just ignore it, there's a feeling now, that with AI advancements, I may soon no longer be able to code efficiently without any AI.

SoftTalker2• 29 days ago

Utter nonsense. If you can't figure out how to run your dev stack on your own computer, you're not worthy of calling yourself a software engineer.

kolbebe• 29 days ago

L take. My last 2 companies had their environments spun up in cloud instances.

iLemming3• 29 days ago

"Running your dev stack" is not the same as "developing [usable] software".

cellover• 29 days ago

Oh no, I have to write that marketing coordination email myself again!

GL26• 29 days ago

Restarted my claude session, by killing my terminal, it worked

jacob_masse• 29 days ago

Mine went down mid-session and it just shows a JSON error lol, waiting for it to come back up to continue..

yanis_t2• 29 days ago

I suppose it's a good time to encourage people trying out pi[1] with any cheap model from the openrouter rankings page[1].

[1] https://pi.dev/ [2] https://openrouter.ai/rankings

aftergibson• 29 days ago

https://pi.dev/models is throwing an internal server error for me.

jwr• 29 days ago

"curl -fsSL https://pi.dev/install.sh | sh" — seriously? That tells me a lot about the whole project, unfortunately.

tuvix• 29 days ago

both the Julia and Rust programming languages use curl -> sh to install

throwaway20273• 29 days ago

Claude Code does it the same way (which doesn't excuse it obviously) but still.

curl -fsSL https://claude.ai/install.sh | bash

https://code.claude.com/docs/en/quickstart

mik3y4• 29 days ago

I am genuinely curious what it tells you, as "curl https//.. | sh" has long been an enormously popular approach to distribution in the open source world. Homebrew, to name just one example, advertises a similar method.

(pi.sh also documents other install methods, like `npm`, on their homepage)

If trust and security is the issue, unfortunately "better" ideas like hashpipe [1] never achieved critical mass

    [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9318286

Arubis• 29 days ago

I get this, and would recently have had a similar reaction. But I have to ask: do you typically run your agent harness in yolo mode?

plagiarist• 29 days ago

In general I agree with you, but on the other hand it is an agentic coding agent you should have isolated in a container or VM anyway

efficax2• 29 days ago

it tells you they're just like basically every other CLI targeting project for the last 15 years? I mean is it a big security hole we all accept, yes, it is. But it's not really indicative of much. That's also how I install rust.

horsawlarway• 29 days ago

Yeah, totally reasonable comment given the utter security that must come from anthropic with their installer, amiright?

oh wait...

"curl -fsSL https://claude.ai/install.sh | bash"

(right from https://claude.com/product/claude-code)

Further - what the flicking fuck do you think an installer is going to do on your system? Not run any commands? Because I've written installers for every platform... they ALL can run commands.

So what exactly is the complaint in this comment? If you want to go read the install script - knock yourself out (or hell, point your agent at it...).

qarl27• 29 days ago

My dude - if you're going to trust them then you're going to trust them.

You think it's hard to obfuscate shell calls from inside a built executable?

What it tells us is that you're probably searching for reasons to grouse about AI.

sippeangelo• 29 days ago

Seriously, what is the threat model here?

kordlessagain6• 29 days ago

I just did a build in Nemesis8 (containerized agents) and Pi appears to be working fine. Opencode is a good choice too if you're interested in checking out GLM 5.2 from z.ai.

https://github.com/deepbluedynamics/nemesis8

MrOxiMoron• 29 days ago

Except I was having connection issue and errors through open router too

cromka7• 29 days ago

Is pi better than opencode?

kordlessagain6• 29 days ago

I like it.

One caveat is that it doesn't do MCP tools, but can wire them up with bash (or use CLIs if those are available).

zipy124• 29 days ago

They are different models. OpenCode is trying to be a claude code/codex replacement, where-as pi is something you build yourself, kind of trying to be an emacs type thing compared to vs-code. As in emacs it is more common to write your own extensions, where as in vs-code most people just download them.

trollbridge3• 29 days ago

oh-my-pi is a bit of a cross between the two; comes with basically everything OpenCode does, but still easy to customise.

OpenCode is nice if you don't want to do a lot of research and just want to get started right away. The OpenCode Go plan for $5 a month for your first month is a great way to do this, with good models to choose from and reasonable usage limits for a beginner.

epistasis• 29 days ago

I haven't tried opencode, but when I opened pi I was able to complain about that silly and stupid left-padding that LLM TUIs have started using that prevents basic copy-paste operation, and pi was able to edit itself to fix it.

So I'm sold on that level alone. Good stuff.

sometimelurker• 29 days ago

Ive tried both, and pi's core is a lot smaller but can be extended to have as many features as opencode. personally I like using pi with llama.cpp, and use stuff like pi.dev/packages/pi-llama-cpp-stats to combine them better. there's a lot of stuff you'll feel like pi is missing, but its just optional.

sergiotapia• 29 days ago

I can vouch for ohmypi, it's quite good out of the box and works great with your codex subscription or openrouter or fireworks etc. Very good harness.

https://omp.sh/

bflesch4• 29 days ago

website is super laggy and has low FPS

agentcooper2• 29 days ago

With Agent Client Protocol (ACP) you can keep the same UI and switch not models, but entire agents, that means using tools/prompts/compaction/etc that are tailored for the model.

Try Zed[1] for GUI and pool[2] for TUI.

[1] https://zed.dev/

[2] https://github.com/poolsideai/pool

CBLT• 29 days ago

Ferret74463• 26 days ago

I tried ACP but the UI for agents is so minimal I don't see much of a point. They're all just text boxes now.

thejazzman• 28 days ago

I retried Pi yesterday with GLM5.2 and Deepseek

I asked a simple question about my codebase. Pi: >60s and 100k tokens, I cancelled and gave up Claude (pointed at the same deepseek model): 17s 15k tokens

I burned my $5 GLM budget in 15 minutes.

So idk what the Pi hype is about cuz this is my 3rd disappointing try

bel8• 27 days ago

GLM 5.2 is priced at 1/3 of Opus. Depending on who you ask for a napkin math.

Not worth it in my opinion.

You'll get 10x more value by using MiMo 2.5 or DeepSeek Flash which is what I use for most code.

ieie3366• 29 days ago

Hey you. Touch grass. Go outside. If a minor downtime of a developer tool triggers you, it means you likely have heavy anxiety. Don’t worry about it and calm down.

Anthropic has massive capability issues due to massive user growth. It happens often when EU and US work hours collide. They have smart people working on it. Don’t waste your energy complaining.

Cheers

hk__2• 29 days ago

It’s 36°C outside, I’d rather stay inside.

root-parent5• 29 days ago

> It’s 36°C outside

Yeah AI Data Centers do that....

a_c• 29 days ago

Good break, time to catch up with the code

Trasmatta• 29 days ago

Protip: in the olden days we used to be able to read and write code ourselves. Worth trying while Claude is down! You might have fun and learn something!

freshtake• 29 days ago

I hear that 100% of code at Anthropic is coded by Claude, so this was caused by Claude. And also, no one but Claude can fix Claude

root-parent5• 29 days ago

> I hear that 100% of code at Anthropic is coded by Claude, so this was caused by Claude. And also, no one but Claude can fix Claude

Claude is down....

paytonjjones• 29 days ago

Don't worry they've got a dude named Claude they keep in the back just for occasions like this

rvz2• 29 days ago

Claude is taking a hydration break.

gchamonlive• 29 days ago

Claude is just a tool. Garbage in, garbage out, blame management

robertclaus• 29 days ago

Good opportunity to do some planning work.

Marha01• 29 days ago

I do that with Opus in plan mode..

throwaw123• 29 days ago

Imagine a future where Anthropic holds your company hostage because no one can code properly anymore by hand and demands paying 200% higher price for the usage.

What can your company do?

root-parent5• 29 days ago

> What can your company do?

Hire some Developers?

exe344• 29 days ago

What exactly is a developer in a scenario where no one can code?

throwaw123• 29 days ago

Developers who can code without LLMs will go extinct in couple years and there will be legends about them, you should at least have some decent open weight model as a backup

blourvim• 29 days ago

I would guess that they would want to at the very least 10x their prices. Remember they need to make up for training, marketing, etc.. and make a big chunk of profit on top of that to justify their trillion dollar evaluation

throwaw123• 29 days ago

doing 2x 3 times already gets you almost 10x increase

brookst7• 29 days ago

Hire developers who will be happy to take merely 100% higher rates?

Use an Anthropic competitor?

dwa3592• 29 days ago

the company will switch to a different LLM vendor??

what does someone do when a certain brand coffee maker keeps breaking; they buy a different brand.

kordlessagain6• 29 days ago

No need to make up speculative futures based on a company only giving one model to their employees. I use Codex, Antigravity, Claude and GLM-5.2 interchangeably. Any sensible employer will do the same.

cube00• 29 days ago

Any sensible employer will do the same.

Hard to do when each individual provider wants to lock your company into multiyear enterprise contracts.

tedd4u• 29 days ago

Won't it eventually be $1,000 or $5,000 a month? $5k a month would still be 97% less than many developers cost.

Espressosaurus• 29 days ago

How many developers are making 2 million a year?

400k isn’t crazy for the FANG set but it’s still a subset of the developer market and hundreds of thousands of those jobs have been cut in the last few years as they all collectively work to lower SWE pay.

60k a year it needs to be a full irreplaceable part of the infrastructure for I think. There are very few kinds of software that meet that bar right now (certain design tools etc that have no replacement). 12k/year is in the expensive but reasonable for the right tooling category (Matlab etc.).

I don’t know what the future holds. I know the big AI companies are banking on being able to charge for a replacement SWE that works 24/7. Still not convinced these are it yet, as useful as they can be under the right circumstances.

_pdp_• 29 days ago

Who is GLM 5.2?

mwigdahl• 29 days ago

I'll do you one better! Why is GLM 5.2?

whh2• 29 days ago

Where is GLM 5.2?

philipkiely• 29 days ago

Good thing we have GLM-5.2

xpain• 29 days ago

My claude status teams webhook says unicode character U+274C , usually on downtimes we get a U+1F7E1... let's see how this goes

tomasphan2• 29 days ago

I request an official statement from Anthropic explaining how they're going to limit outages in the future. Elevated errors almost always means its down for me and I can't be that unlucky statistically speaking. It seems that Anthropic does not have a good grip on the ops side of things.

stevemk14ebr• 29 days ago

I'm sure they'll get right on that for ya bud

tomasphan2• 29 days ago

Thanks for your contribution to this problem. Keen to see what you come up with next!

donaldstuck• 29 days ago

What a coincidence, OpenAI is also down according to Downdetector.

swader999• 29 days ago

I had to log in to github and review a PR by hand just now. I felt like a savage again!

danjl• 29 days ago

Perhaps they are adding security controls to bring Fable back online? One can hope.

keeptrying• 29 days ago

It would be hilarious if they don't know how to fix it because this was built by "running loops calling Claude" and they haven't the faintest idea of the present underlying architecture.

npodbielski4• 29 days ago

Maybe they have DeepSeek subscription for that occasion?

eagerpace• 29 days ago

I have two sessions going. One is fine, one keeps timing out. Both Opus 4.8 in Claude code in terminal. Must have them routed to different to different infra that isn’t equally impacted.

Judson• 29 days ago

I always associate downtime like this with a new model rollout. Maybe we are getting Fable back.

kk3838368397373• 29 days ago

saw this comment on Reddit,

"it's look like when the lights turning off, we return to socialize lol"

whh2• 29 days ago

I was going to say the modern day equivalent of Github is down, but it's always down.

bpodgursky• 29 days ago

Smells like someone's gassing Mythos back up.

MontyCarloHall3• 29 days ago

   I don’t prompt Claude anymore. I have loops running that prompt Claude and figuring out what to do. My job is to write loops.
   — Boris Cherny, head of Claude Code

Reliability is a direct reflection of the quality of the underlying infrastructural code. If even Anthropic, the company with the world's best agentic vibecoders, has horribly unreliable infrastructure, it really says something about the quality of the world's best agentically produced code.

dsmurrell• 29 days ago

I wonder how they fix things when Claude is down.

blensor• 29 days ago

This is ( or will be in the future ) a surprisingly relevant issue

AlexB138• 29 days ago

I would bet that they have inference setup for internal use on a separate system from the customer-facing production environment. The same way telemetry infrastructure needs to be run separate from normal production systems, so you aren't "blind" when you need it most.

mysterydip• 29 days ago

maybe they ask a secondary agentic system to fix it. will that be the future of “redundancy”?

qsxfthnkp2322• 29 days ago

lol probably use their dev or qa Claude environment to fix prod

wsatb• 29 days ago

Based on this outage: not very well.

rdtsc• 29 days ago

"Gemini, fix my Claude infra"

hombre_fatal5• 29 days ago

Meh, this is the "must be the veganism" fallacy: if someone knows you're vegan, then any ailment you might have, no matter how ubiquitous in the population, must be somehow due to your vegan diet and no more details are required.

Except now it's the "AI did it" fallacy where if you know a company uses AI, even infra scaling issues must be due to AI, and if you had just used less or no AI, you would have been spared even though that has never been true.

The usual response to this goes something like "well they made claims that AI is good" therefore anything short of perfection supposedly debunks the claim.

gls2ro5• 29 days ago

This is not like that.

This is literally they saying they are letting their LLM run wild(ish) and seeing the status.claude.com we can see the result.

This is a case where the outcome is the direct result of the engineering practices like the ones they describe.

PS: Yes I use Claude, Coded, Amp and Cursor agents every day so I am not saying here LLMs are not valuable.

LE: They did not made claims that "AI is good" they made claims that developers/computer engineers are not needed anymore in the near future. Thats is a stronger claim and has a direct relation with a product they have which needs computer engineering (yes infra counts too) and which seems to be down more than we expect as a good quality bar.

svachalek2• 29 days ago

There’s a difference between having normal levels of difficulty and bad luck, and having people blame those on the wrong thing, vs having extraordinarily miserable quality and having people find the obvious difference. Potentially yes, they might have terrible wiring in their office or a crippling fondness for vim. But if I were their PR department I’d be talking about that if it was the problem.

tcp_handshaker• 29 days ago

Ahem...

"Vegans and vegetarians may have higher stroke risk" - https://www.bbc.com/news/health-49579820

"Vegans had a 43% higher risk of fractures overall compared to nonvegetarians, as well as higher risks of hip, leg, and vertebral fractures." - https://sniglobal.org/plant-based-diets-and-fracture-risk/

"The Impact of a Vegan Diet on Many Aspects of Health: The Overlooked Side of Veganism" - https://www.cureus.com/articles/138315-the-impact-of-a-vegan...

"..people who followed a vegan diet had noticeably low levels of iodine in their bodies, an element that is essential for growth, bones, and brain function. In addition, vegans had lower bone health scores..." - https://www.bfr.bund.de/en/press-release/vegan-vegetarian-be...

trollbridge3• 29 days ago

If you go around bragging that you use AI for everything as part of your marketing plan, then don't be surprised that people blame you heavy AI usage when you have a problem.

MattGaiser2• 29 days ago

On the other hand we are also willing to buy it, so reliability is arguably not as valued a good as people assumed.

matltc2• 29 days ago

Some of us are unsubscribing, what with the coming face scans/enshittification/downtime/throttling...

brookst7• 29 days ago

Is there any indication these errors are related to Anthropic-written code as opposed to operational issues from the fastest-growing infra buildout ever?

Layer-wise, the app is pretty far removed from request routing to GPU pools.

organsnyder2• 29 days ago

This is almost certainly a software issue, though. Even if it's due to scaling, they still built a system that failed catastrophically rather than degrading gracefully.

Insanity• 29 days ago

I'm not sure if that's really an Anthropic problem you're pointing to vs a problem that their infra layer handles (Amazon, Google, whatever hyperscaler). i.e, they might be scaling quickly but they are running on top of established infrastructure.

TacticalCoder2• 29 days ago

If even Anthropic, the company with the world's best agentic vibecoders...

But that's really not what they have. They have AI experts who are creating incredible LLMs.

Everything else is more than meh: Claude Code is really bad. Such a turd would never have gained any traction if it wasn't for the LLMs behind it.

I use LLMs to code daily (Claude Code still, mind you, for I didn't take the time to switch yet) and these modesl are both amazing and pathetic.

If you don't verify everything they output, they do the absolute craziest thing imaginable.

One example is I got an Anthropic model notice a "pattern" in range bound integer values. I had them range bound between, e.g., 0xCAFE0000 and 0xCAFEFFFF. And at some point a comparison/validation was needed and instead of doing an integer comparison the Anthropic model went ballistic: instead of doing an integer comparison it converted the numbers to a string, then started doing substring matching on "0xCAFE" and went even more "expert" by verifying at which position the match was happening. All that while explaining why it couldn't possibly fail.

Why did it do that? Very likely because, in a comment, it saw "0xCAFE..." as a string. And the thing saw a pattern.

Can you believe it? There's a pattern. So it must light up connections. We've got a pattern!

Now amount of kludge, hidden pre-processing, hidden post-processing is fixing the "quality" of the code produced by something that, instead of doing an integer comparison, converts things to string and then does substring searches and indexes computation.

There's no fixing that.

Yesterday: had to use three guard clauses before pushing data... Two of the three "logic gates" (as the model would explain they were, which is kinda right) he got right. The third one: same thing... It was planning to go ballistic, introduce countless lines of code, insane abstractions, to make a test that was solved with a one line timestamp comparison.

It's because it does things like that that the people who explain that they don't code anymore are delusional if they think this gives, as of today, quality code.

It's like that other dude who was happy to produce 37 K LOC per day and counting.

... it really says something about the quality of the world's best agentically produced code

Oh it is totally shit code. But if you monitor everything and vet everything they do, it's helpful.

I find these LLMs way more helpful at finding the source of bugs (not fixing them: finding them, which is 90% of the job anyway) and at acting like rubber-ducks then at writing code.

Claude Code sucks. Claude Code CLI sucks. Their only "solutions" to all problems is to create VMs, headless browsers, and resort to incredible hacks (the infamous "game loop" that modifies the characters output by the LLM is just shameful) etc. to try to hide the misery. It's miserable kludges everywhere.

And the only reason these miserable kludges are not entirely falling apart is because they rest on the shoulders of actual giants: projects like Linux, QEMU, etc. that were not vibe-coded.

It's sad to have useful tools (the models) and to make such poor use of them.

I'm pretty sure that, in the end, it's just like open-source powering the entire world by now: we'll have open-source projects like Pi and then newer ones that are going to come out and fix the mess we have now. And they're not going to be 100% vibe-coded by people whose jobs is "to write loops".

rvz2• 29 days ago

He is a salesman at this point and is not talking to you. He is talking to the investors who want to vibe code loops to waste tokens on building slop to get rid of you.

Goes to show how fake this industry has become when VC dollars have flooded it.

Somehow it is fine to vibe code infrastructure or security because someone (with a clear vested interest) wants you to spend more tokens at their casino because that is how they "win" at the casino (which they work at).

Except in reality, this part of software is critical and irresponsible to 'write loops" and we all know that he doesn't believe what he is saying.

nomel• 29 days ago

It's very very clear they're eating their own dog food, in a product space built on tech that didn't really exist publicly 5 years ago, to the success of billions, that people increasingly depend on. Maybe I'm an optimist, but I can't fathom the intense negativity or perspective of failure here.

Don't use it. Maybe wait a few more years. If it's not valuable/useful, then not using it, while everything matures, will not be a problem.

TimCTRL• 29 days ago

Appstoreconnect too

madeforhnyo• 29 days ago

Has anyone noticed how changing the viewport changes the uptime percentage?

adithyareddy• 29 days ago

It's changing the number of days it's looking back from 90 days to 60 days on smaller viewports - the uptime reflects that.

remus• 29 days ago

They dynamically pick the number of days to display based on viewport size. Mobile = 30 days, tablet = 60 days etc.

robertsconley2• 29 days ago

I have been developing software since the late 80s, mostly CAM software for metal cutting machines, and I have been refereeing tabletop roleplaying games like Dungeons & Dragons since the late 70s.

I get the power of LLMs, and I do find them useful. But I find them useful in much the same way I find a really good set of random tables useful, or a good set of rules for procedurally generating something like a star sector for a science fiction campaign.

For my day job developing software, and for the RPG campaigns and books I run and publish today, LLMs are, in many cases, random tables on steroids. After using them for two years, even with all their improvements, I am continually reminded by the results I get that, at the heart of it, I am still dealing with what amounts to randomly generated content.

Yes, I know it is more accurate to call the process probabilistic rather than random. And yes, somebody can construct a technically deterministic setup with fixed weights, fixed seeds, fixed sampling parameters, and a frozen runtime environment. But that is like saying you can recreate a rainstorm if you get a thousand butterflies to flap their wings in exactly the right way. It may be technically true, but it is not how the technology behaves in normal day-to-day use.

For practical purposes, given the same prompt and the same apparent starting conditions, the result can differ each time you use a model. The outputs will often be highly correlated, and often useful, but they are not deterministic software in the ordinary sense.

So far, I am failing to see how the inherent probabilistic nature of the technology can be fully overcome. I understand how we got to where we are today from older neural net technology, including the systems used for vision and sound. What we have now can be very useful. But my view is that it is being badly oversold and overhyped. Its probabilistic nature is being vastly underestimated, and that is a major reason for much of the weirdness and many of the failures we keep seeing.

In tabletop roleplaying, there have been times when hobbyists relied too much on procedurally generated content and ultimately got burned by it, either through campaigns that were not as fun or products that were subpar. Each time, the lesson was the same: there is no substitute for human judgment.

Any workflow or technology incorporating LLMs has to keep humans in the loop, and not merely as rubber stamps. The human has to remain the primary decision maker.

svachalek2• 29 days ago

I think we need to disqualify humans as well. Their brains have been shown to operate on probabilistic chemical interactions and even quantum effects.

robertsconley2• 29 days ago

That doesn’t disqualify humans. It highlights the difference I am talking about.

Those chemical interactions and quantum effects lead to emergent properties like judgment, experience, context, accountability, and an understanding of consequences. Those are not properties that LLMs possess, regardless of how useful their output can be.

That is not to say that, in the future, LLMs won’t be used as part of other systems that add some of those properties. But that is not what we have today, or what can be seen in the foreseeable near future.

throwaway219450• 29 days ago

I am failing to see how the inherent probabilistic nature of the technology can be fully overcome.

This is common in image generation pipelines because if you find an image you really like, you can store the seed and then reproduce it with small tweaks, otherwise - to quote Borges - “Look at it well. You will never see it again" User-facing deterministic pipelines do exist for generative AI.

I know you make this argument in your post, but that's really the answer if you want repeatable results. For a classifier or a detector, determinism is a requirement, but for an LLM non-determinism desirable property because it feels like a more natural conversation. The downside is it's extremely difficult to replicate a response without pointing the model to an earlier conversation.

And specifically for the RPG case, don't you want non-determinism? You don't want the model spinning up the same identical person if you say "Generate me an NPC character sheet for an innkeeper". This was a complaint that people had in the past, that models would regurgitate the same scenarios or the same jokes.

Where I suspect DMs run into trouble is not randomness, but lack of self-consistency in worldbuilding. Say you generate an NPC and then refer back to them later and the model gets some details wrong. You could compare to a system like Dwarf Fortress where everything down to the genealogy and faction relationships are rigidly generated.

jungturk• 29 days ago

Setting aside that we're living in a universe that's full of (practically) deterministic processes built over probabilistic components (and which behave sufficiently reliably without any human in the loop), I think the specific failure mode you're citing is that there aren't enough gates and constraints applied to the processes you've seen.

LLMs can contribute quite reliably given very narrow prompts and short horizons (keeping turns low and context brief). If you chain a bunch of these narrow contributions together and define guardrails (structured outputs, online evals, other-llm-as-judge/jury, etc...) you can produce a very repeatable workflow that reliably delivers to defined service levels.

The obvious issue being - you've got to define the workflow and implement all the guardrails, not hope that the LLM will infer them during a session or a one-shot prompt.

Legend2440• 29 days ago

The trouble is: there is no deterministic algorithm that can do the things neural networks can do.

For many of these problems, I think it is likely that no deterministic algorithm can exist because the problems are fundamentally underspecified. E.g. a common task in computer vision is generating a 3D depth map from a 2D image. This is inverting a lossy projection, so any solution must be a least partially a hallucination.

I think we just have to accept this. It's a different type of algorithm, built out of statistics instead of logic, with different strengths and weaknesses compared to traditional software.

kridsdale1• 29 days ago

I feel the same way. Analogy: we’ve been geologists this whole time, building our dynamic and interesting mechanical planet.

Now, biology exists. It’s wet and messy and impossible to understand (we haven’t invented the microscope yet). That doesn’t mean biological study is not worth doing.

dgellow• 29 days ago

So far, I am failing to see how the inherent probabilistic nature of the technology can be fully overcome

I deeply hope we never reach the point where that’s overcome. What we’ve seen over the past few years is how AI will destroy humanness from pretty much the entire digital realm. It’s by far the most evil, anti-human technology ever created, corrupting everything it touches. The last thing we need is for it to become reliable

JKCalhoun• 28 days ago

And yet the world would seem to be (?) rushing to adopt it in its unreliable form anyway.

Perhaps it would be better if it actually worked.

cromka7• 29 days ago

I signed up for paid plan on Claude just 3 hours ago for the first time and was scratching my head on how that thing gets praised so much if I can't even send a question half of the time....

aschla• 29 days ago

That's just exceptionally unfortunate timing. Anthropic has been getting better at uptime, but they still have the occasional issue.

cromka7• 29 days ago

Yeah it's one of those situations in which you reluctantly check for downtime as a last resort, only to find out you indeed just had a bad luck. Which is good, because I thought it was a beginner's brain type of friction.

theanonymousone• 29 days ago

Th is really not good advertisement for Claude-Oriented Programming

kordlessagain6• 29 days ago

Actual 90d uptime: 97.6838% (calculated by Codex from live data)

  Computed from the page’s own data for 2026-03-26 through 2026-06-23:

  - Partial outage: 43h 15m 1s
  - Major outage: 6h 46m 48s
  - Total affected time: 50h 1m 49s
  - Major-only uptime: 99.6861%

So, only one 9 for 10x vibes.

fluidcruft• 29 days ago

I want uptime modulo in my timezone/work hours. I don't give a shit about any 9's earned while I'm sleeping.

kordlessagain6• 29 days ago

Sleeping less nowadays...

bflesch4• 29 days ago

Thanks, never thought about that. Definitely makes sense for situations where you don't have 24/7 requirement for a service.

These stupid SLAs in the SaaS contracts should be reframed like this: 99.9% during working hours, not 99.9% overall. Would also give the SaaS vendor leeway to only guarantee 90% availability outside working hours, and then do their maintenance tasks in those windows.

rik3141592• 29 days ago

And we're back. Nothing to see here...

rik3141592• 29 days ago

Ohno we're not. Hokey Cokey time. 529 overloaded. Of course. Maybe a beer. It is hot after all.

KronisLV• 29 days ago

Since this keeps happening often enough not to bring up that much new discussion...

Today is the Latvian holiday of Jāņi, to mark the passage of the summer solstice: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J%C4%81%C5%86i

Grab yourselves some beer or beverage of choice and some cheese (we usually have caraway cheese), alongside skewered meat and get some rest!

I mean, what else am I going to do while Claude is down, write code manually, like they did in the 90s or something?

bryanlarsen• 29 days ago

They claim to be fully resolved as of half an hour ago, but it's still not working for me.

elAhmo• 29 days ago

Speaking of LLM looping techniques, Claude seems to be having elevated error rate on a /loop as well.

badlibrarian• 29 days ago

It started failing two days ago, when it suddenly couldn't access gmail threads reliably. Then it started popping up warnings that I was over quota when I wasn't. It even let me use Fable briefly, or pretended to. Meanwhile search finally started working, so there's that.

This video, wow: https://www.threads.com/@founder__growth/post/DZz_9Ikj3Wx

Out of desperation, I moved to ChatGPT and it's working better than I remember. All these companies are playing games under load, under failure. No wonder we can't agree on what's good for what.

hmokiguess• 29 days ago

Be Anthropic
Optimize your bottom line for token spending so you collect $$$$
Release Ultracode feature that optimize for Token Spending (a.k.a Dynamic Workflows)
Tokenmaxxing achieved + 529 Overloaded unsustainable APIs everywhere

Elevated error rate across multiple models

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