Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year

https://www.fas.harvard.edu/fas-decision-2020-2021-academic-year

by jbegley • 6 years ago

350 504 6 years ago

fas.harvard.edu

num3ric• 6 years ago

Wise decision, but this renders the cost of education (in US universities) even more unjustifiable.

wpasc• 6 years ago

Agreed entirely, but the cost of a US college degree is often more about the credential level signaling and showing that you were tenacious enough to win the college entrance competition than it is about acquiring skills.

itg• 6 years ago

Also about networking and friendships formed during college which will be harder when it’s entirely online.

giarc• 6 years ago

I tend to agree but online courses allows school to admit more people. Therefore the value of that limited resource should go down, along with the price. Although Harvard hasn't announced an increase in first year admittance, I suspect if this is succesful they will start to increase enrollment and therefore should bring the cost down.

snarf21• 6 years ago

Just like the job interview screening game.

staycoolboy3• 6 years ago

Wow, that's wickedly cynical.

I don't know how I would have learned how to become an RF engineer if it weren't for a four year BSEE that focused heavily on DiffEq, Complex Math, Fields & Waves, and Discrete Systems... and access to patient and friendly (mostly) professors for help during open office hours, which were a necessity (for me, anyway).

I'm pretty sure I would not have been able to teach this to myself with YouTube videos. But maybe you've had better luck?

catawbasam• 6 years ago

If that was it, they could just copy their acceptance letters and start applying for jobs.

NotSammyHagar• 6 years ago

That is extremely contrary to my experience. I could code a little bit before college but I learned more math, abstraction, theory of computation. I have never encountered anyone from my school professionally, but it was a modest state school. I did a ton of programming and that always mattered the most when I interviewed for jobs - what could I do and demonstrate right then. I have to ask, were you in engineering, where your connections mattered?

fullshark2• 6 years ago

The cost is incredibly justifiable, it's just you are paying for access to future opportunities not an education.

tinyhouse3• 6 years ago

No it's not. Knowledge should provide access to future opportunities, not prestige. The system is the problem.

bdcravens4• 6 years ago

It's not (or at least, doesn't have to be) a binary question; it's a sliding scale of ROI.

tinyhouse3• 6 years ago

I would think the majority of non-rich Harvard students don't pay much. For undergraduate studies if you want to attract the best students you have to offer very generous scholarships. Otherwise they would lose students to other top schools. This is true for all schools, but the rich schools like Harvard have the funding to actually do it. I've met a couple of students who paid full tuition at Harvard, but both came from very wealthy families so it wasn't an issue. Schools know in advance the financial situation of applicants and plan accordingly.

affyboi2• 6 years ago

The Ivies tend to have pretty generous aid since they have massive endowments

asdff12• 6 years ago

I'm sure no small number of people will defer next year. Looking back at college me, I would lean on the side of not signing my college town lease, deferring for the year, and living with my parents in my hometown for a year along with the rest of my local friends (many of which have in fact escaped NYC and other cities rents and returned to their parents home for this work from home period).

Maybe you could work on something on github for your resume during this gap, but I'm anticipating given the absolute chaos this pandemic has caused worldwide, employers aren't going to care if you've failed to secure an internship in a time when no one is hiring, or that you preferred to take more engaging in person coursework rather than watch live action youtube lectures for exorbitant fees.

vincentmarle• 6 years ago

On the other hand, if there are a lot of students deferring, there is a huge line behind them willing (and able!) to get into Harvard. Harvard and other elite institutions will not suffer for students for quite a while.

amiga_5002• 6 years ago

The price isn't set on the cost to deliver, at all.

It's based on ability to pay, which is based on available credit, which is based on whatever bankers can get away with saying lifetime earnings will be.

centimeter2• 6 years ago

Wise decision

For whom? We're going to save ~0 QALY with this decision, but we're going to derail a lot of people's life plans and probably contribute to a lot of deaths of despair.

hpoe• 6 years ago

So here's a question how are they going to prevent people from sharing the online courses? Like is there anything that stops someone from sharing or restreaming their classes?

I mean given what the value of a Harvard education is considered I would think there would be a lot of people interested in getting access to these courses.

bmmayer1• 6 years ago

I think most people would say the value of a Harvard education is in the name on your degree, not the content of the courses.

That said, there's a quote from Good Will Hunting that seems appropriate here: "You wasted $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library."

qntty2• 6 years ago

Most of the value is the friends you make and the informal relationships you develop with professors and other people at the university. For someone who already has friends to talk about academic things with, and who doesn't need the structure of a curriculum, Will is right.

dublinben• 6 years ago

Harvard already provides many of their courses for free on EdX[0], so anyone who wants to access them already can. The lectures themselves are only a small part of the value of a Harvard education, so they don't seem concerned about "piracy" of their courses.

[0] https://www.edx.org/school/harvardx

murgindrag• 6 years ago

They're not free. That was a lie. Right now, most edX courses have switched to models where homework (the key value of the courses) is paid.

A lot of people supported edX with time and money, including much of the early team and course contributors, based on this lie. Coursera was at least honest about it.

Aside from that, most Harvard online courses have amazing production value (fully staffed video teams), and preciously little learning value. That's reflected in the hiring too. How many Harvard professors care about teaching-and-learning, much less online.

I predict ASU, SNHU, Georgia Tech, and other schools which try to do online well will eventually eat Harvard's lunch unless something changes. With "eventually" being 50-100 years, since that's how long university reputations last :)

That's lots of time for even a Harvard to change.

mmm_grayons3• 6 years ago

MIT has been doing that with a big chunk of its courses for years and yet the value of its degrees have yet to depreciate. The value is in 1. the people you meet there and 2. the value of "MIT" on a piece of paper. The same is true for other elite institutions.

shiado• 6 years ago

It wouldn't matter if the courses are shared. Anybody in the world can now get access to the very highest tier of educational materials from sites like MIT OpenCourseWare. Universities sell credentials.

nick_kline2• 6 years ago

I don't think it matters if people share.

Half the value of attending at least if not more is the famous name on your resume. Everyone knows it's extremely hard to get into. It's not hard to point to famous people in tech from there like Bill Gates, but Harvard on your c.v. is vastly more important if you aren't an engineer.

ralmidani4• 6 years ago

My understanding is a lot of universities are playing bait-and-switch, announcing unrealistic plans to reopen in the Fall in order to get deposits/tuition, but secretly knowing they'll be 'forced' to move everything online again. I admire Harvard's transparency, although having a multi-billion-dollar endowment does make this decision easier for them than it would be for struggling institutions.

FWIW, I personally think distance learning is underrated, although I have been doing it for years so I've had time to become accustomed to it. I can understand why some students (including my wife) do not like it, and may never like it.

From a strategic perspective, I can see universities like Harvard strengthening their brand by opening up more of their classes to the general public (and maybe even giving credit for a bigger chunk of them via the Extension School). This might hurt a lot of the smaller institutions and lead to consolidation, but I'm undecided on whether that would be a bad thing.

AgloeDreams• 6 years ago

It's Harvard. It doesn't matter how they accounted it, they have not changed the Tuition cost with this announcement so it's the same money and they are not hurting for students.

thspimpolds• 6 years ago

The average student at Harvard doesn't pay even close to actual tuition, most of the endowment is earmarked for student aid.

If I remember right, something like under 90k earned by the student's family, they pay nothing. I haven't worked there in 2 years, so the math is a bit fuzzy but the concepts are accurate.

the_pwner224• 6 years ago

Many students would be much less willing to go to college if it was online only, and would instead take a gap year or do something else. If you can keep them hooked until after the tuition is billed and after the refund period expires, and then transition online, then you get that money which you would not otherwise get (now). This entire thing seems a bit like a conspiracy theory, but American universities are pretty greedy so idk. I've just accepted that I'm paying for the diploma so I personally won't mind if the classes are online for the same price - less time wasted in useless lectures, and I've already done much of the networking & connection building part of the experience in past years.

protomyth4• 6 years ago

I don't know about big universities, but we (a small TCU - Tribal Community College) do expect to open in the fall. The problem is going to be if we see a spike or get directions from the federal, state, or tribal governments late in summer.

The second problem a lot of people don't talk about is if the institution is accredited for 100% online courses. We got an exception that allowed for the summer, but we would need it extended into Fall. Being an accredited institution doesn't automatically mean you can teach 100% online courses.

goatherders• 6 years ago

Honest question: yesterday the US saw the most cases in a day since this started. If that doesnt constitute a spike then what does? Or is the planning more about anticipated levels 6 weeks from now as compared to now.

vkou5• 6 years ago

The problem is going to be if we see a spike or get directions from the federal, state, or tribal governments late in summer.

The US is well into a second wave of infections, which is dwarfing the first wave. The US is stuck between state governments making noises about lockdown fatigue (When the first lockdown wasn't even implemented correctly) and a federal government that is doing absolutely nothing.

I do not foresee a future where things are going to look any better in September.

Onawa• 6 years ago

If you don't mind me asking, what TCU are you at? I've been keeping an eye on my alma mater (Salish Kootenai College) and I think they were already doing decently with their online offerings after pushing the instructors more than 5 years ago to transition their teaching materials to Moodle.

dehrmann• 6 years ago

The problem is going to be if we see a spike or get directions from the federal, state, or tribal governments late in summer.

It looks like CCCC is on a reservation, so I assume you can ignore the state entirely.

formercoder• 6 years ago

Why would opening up Harvard’s instruction to more of the genera public help their brand? They operate on a scarcity basis.

asdff12• 6 years ago

Because it's Harvard's network and not the lectures that make the brand.

ralmidani4• 6 years ago

Harvard divides its credentials into "tiers", if you will. There are students who go through the competitive admissions process, and there's the Extension School which is basically open enrollment, even if you want to take courses for-credit. You only have to apply if you want to pursue a full Bachelors or Masters, and even then you're given the chance to prove yourself by doing good in a handful of courses.

I personally never thought I could experience Harvard before I found out that CS50 (and tons of other CS courses) could be taken for-credit and even lead to a degree.

Harvard also has online-only, non-credit programs like Harvard Business Online (formerly HBX) and HMX (Medical courses).

Harvard can, and does, strengthen its brand by opening itself to the public. There's a huge spectrum between being a totally-closed institution and being completely open enrollment.

mmm_grayons3• 6 years ago

Opening up to a larger group of students will weaken Harvard's brand. Many of these top institutions are valuable because rich, well-connected people go there, so going there allows one to meet them. There are companies where it is an unspoken rule that they hire only from Harvard, law offices that recruit only from Yale, etc.

ralmidani4• 6 years ago

I doubt "Harvard-only" companies and "Yale-only" law firms of any considerable size exist. Sure, 3 Harvard friends might start a company, or 4 Yale lawyers may start a firm, but eventually they will have to venture outside their bubble. If you have evidence of an organization with, say, 35+ employees maintaining that kind of exclusivity, please post a link.

dicomdan• 6 years ago

Students will still be on campus, while teaching is done online. Sounds like a win win for students who get to interact with their peers, and professors who get to stay safe.

Octoth0rpe• 6 years ago

It sounds like a win for Harvard's residency fees and that's about it.

therealcamino• 6 years ago

Up to 40% of students will be on campus. Priority to freshmen in the fall and seniors in the spring.

goatinaboat• 6 years ago

I personally think distance learning is underrated, although I have been doing it for years so I've had time to become accustomed to it. I can understand why some students (including my wife) do not like it, and may never like it.

The ingestion of facts is actually only a minor part of the college experience. Exploring concepts with your peers in organised and ad-hoc groups is a huge, huge part. Not to mention if you go to a name-brand college like Harvard the networking opportunities, and at every college, the social side and the experience of living away from home for the first time.

It is absolutely not worth paying the tuition at Harvard to get what you could get on EdX or Coursera.

unethical_ban• 6 years ago

I cannot comment fully on remote learning - I haven't done it in a way that is "forced", in other words, being held to account by studying and taking exams and having remote sessions with TAs, etc. I am having a hard enough time focusing on remote work, and I am being held to account daily.

Also recall that the University is, among many other things, a social and growing experience that provides expansion of the mind, a new location to experience the world away from home, and an opportunity to build social networks and connections for friends and work. It also fulfills the mission, hopefully, of a well rounded education in civics, arts and sciences, and your field of expertise.

I therefore understand the drive to do as much as possible to provide some of that, and it is telling they give Freshmen and Seniors the priority (to experience campus life, and to say goodbye and push through, respectively).

We hope this will only last until mid 2021. Philosophers and leaders need to be thinking about what the world may need to look like when this happens to us again.

peruvian2• 6 years ago

Aren't endowments for elite colleges mostly tied up in hedge funds or real estate to make them even bigger? Weird for me that they could have billions in the bank and still ask for tuition.

notatoad• 6 years ago

Weird for me that they could have billions in the bank and still ask for tuition.

if you make something free, people don't value it. Harvard has a lot of financial aid for students who legitimately can't afford the tuition, and charges a lot for students who can.

Finnucane• 6 years ago

Sure, they’re managed investment funds. You couldn’t run a university just on the income from bank interest. Also, most endowment funds are not unrestricted. Donors often attach strings to what can be done with the money; it’s donated for specific purposes. Harvard is even more restricted in a way because each school has its own endowment. FAS (most undergraduates) has the biggest, but they can only spend their own money.

Also, income from the endowment doesn’t cover the whole cost of operating the university.

Harvard is actually managing a little better than they did in 2008. When Larry Summers was president, he made some skeezy deals to finance the Allston campus expansion, and it went way bad when the market collapsed. Now they do have some emergency cash set aside.

geophile3• 6 years ago

The pandemic is particularly challenging for a school like Harvard, as it makes the implicit thing obvious: a prestige school like Harvard is about the social connections far more than the education. If you get one semester on campus, maybe, then what’s the point? You can get an online education anywhere, for far less money.

jedberg• 6 years ago

Harvard is fairly cheap to attend, less than a state school for most, and free if your parents make under $65K. They were forced to do that a few years ago so the government wouldn't start taxing their endowment.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/12301...

SkyMarshal6• 6 years ago

The pandemic is particularly challenging for a school like Harvard, as it makes the implicit thing obvious: a prestige school like Harvard is about the social connections far more than the education.

I wouldn't say "far" more. There are multiple valuable components to a top tier education:

1. Social connections with your peers, as you mention.

2. Social connections with your professors, their graduate students, and their network.

3. The education itself, which should be intellectually challenging (more or less depending on subject, with STEM subjects usually moreso, especially at top tier schools)

4. The pedigree, which is a factor of the previous three, and should prove to employers etc that, at minimum, you can handle a large and difficult work load with precision and attention to detail, regardless who your connections are.

5. Various support services tailored to the stresses of a demanding undergraduate education.

Of those, an online education from a top tier school still gets you some of #2 & #5, and all of #3 and #4. A 20-30% tuition discount for losing #1 may be fair, but I think it's still worth it for students who get into a top tier school to finish their degree there, even online.

biztos3• 6 years ago

Isn't some part of the value just the "badge appeal" of a Harvard degree? If you are Harvard 2024 won't that open just as many generously compensated doors as usual, even if there was a year less networking?

Might the networking value even increase because now there is a shared bond (had to deal with 2020) connecting the less-connected and the more-connected?

onetimemanytime• 6 years ago

>If you get one semester on campus, maybe, then what’s the point? You can get an online education anywhere, for far less money.

First, Harvard didn't choose this. It happened and its for everyone. Maybe they should offer a 25% discount and cut salaries as well...or just dip in the endowment. What's the point on having it if you don't use for these events?

Second, you're a Harvard grad for life and no one will know or care that 2 years were online (everyone is in the same boat)

BurningFrog• 6 years ago

How much of the "social connections" angle is coming out of University with a high status spouse?

asveikau• 6 years ago

Social connections sure. But how about simply having the name on the resume? You could do it online and still get the name. Although with enough class years of this, the name will stop signifying the social connections, and might start being worth less.

dahfizz• 6 years ago

This is a very naive view.

A prestigious school like Harvard has all the best professors, all the best resources (libraries, computer labs, machine shops, laboratories), and all the best opportunities (more research positions, more interesting academic work to be done), etc. A small school just can't afford all that stuff.

So you're right that a good school is much more than just the things you learn in class. But to boil that down to some "all the elites go here just to meet the other elites" is closer to a conspiracy theory than the truth.

e40• 6 years ago

My understanding is a lot of universities are playing bait-and-switch, announcing unrealistic plans to reopen in the Fall in order to get deposits/tuition

Yes, they are. You nailed this. UCSD forced my son to choose classes at the beginning of June, with the selection being in two piles: in-person and remote. He called their bluff and chose remote.

I will say that UCSD had really crappy online classes, according to my son's experience. He didn't like it at all. I think he would prefer well-run remote classes, but many of the professors were just terrible at it.

noddingham• 6 years ago

I'm not sure your anecdote matches the reality that for traditional college-aged students, remote/online/distance learning yields a poorer result. There's a lot of maturity that has to exist prior to enrolling in online courses that the majority of traditional students don't yet possess. [1][2][3]

Calling plans to reopen 'bait-and-switch' is a bit unfair. I sincerely hope you don't think campus administrators are sitting in backrooms with dollar signs in their eyes thinking about 'pulling one over' on all these students and their families.

[1] https://www.brookings.edu/research/who-should-take-online-co... [2]https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/03/23/how-effective-... [3] https://www.al.com/news/2020/07/tuscaloosa-students-held-par...

colechristensen• 6 years ago

There are also many many soft skills and experiences you get at a proper university which you aren't going to get through zoom.

In fact, it's not too much of an exaggeration to say that the things you learn out of books and are tested on are secondary to everything else you learn and experience at university.

ghaff2• 6 years ago

Basically, schools and school systems (and students/parents) at almost all levels of education are being forced to make decisions between alternatives that are mostly pretty crappy across multiple dimensions, won't be easy to pull back once they get moving, in conditions of extreme uncertainty.

If financially viable to do so, I likely would not enter college as a freshman this year and I'd probably hesitate period unless I thought I could graduate after fall term.

And wait until the debate about K-12 heats up.

nwsm• 6 years ago

From a strategic perspective, I can see universities like Harvard strengthening their brand by opening up more of their classes to the general public

The most important part of Harvard's brand is the prestige of their exclusivity

brentis• 6 years ago

Exactly what I've said. Top 10 schools have tons of untapped brand equity they can unleash for 30% of on prem education. Get a premier remote education for $20k/yr or get state school with risk of Covid for $27k+....

nickbauman• 6 years ago

Maybe "Harvard is different" but a friend went back to school (Metro State U in MN) a few years ago to get his comp sci undergrad after practicing for over a decade professionally. They were trying out online learning for full time students for many intro and secondary classes for the major, saving only the most "keystone" classes for live lectures held weekly.

The key thing was they required the students to respond to three questions for each class for each of the five days of the work week and those were graded. He loved this and excelled at it. He didn't want to sit in a lecture hall. The vast majority of the undergrads hated this and often blew off the questions. Many of them failed. Some A students were getting Cs.

There was a revolt, the students were angry and they decided to ditch the online learning and go back to traditional classes...

JadeNB• 6 years ago

I admire Harvard's transparency, although having a multi-billion-dollar endowment does make this decision easier for them than it would be for struggling institutions.

I think a lot of this comes from their having waited until now to make a decision (which they feel comfortable doing because, as you say, they're sitting on a billion-dollar endowment). My university has been engaging in a lot of mixed messaging, but I think a lot of that came from feeling rushed to make a quick decision, not so much from an attempt to deceive people (although I'd be surprised if there weren't also some tacit understanding that it's easier to tell people what they want to hear now and change it later than it is to tell them to wait until later and then give bad news).

m0zg• 6 years ago

In a way, distance learning is a much more valuable skill though. Young people have this illusion that they go to college and in 4 years be "done" with learning. In STEM fields today that's simply not true. The learning doesn't end when you get a diploma, and college is just the beginning.

Self-paced, asynchronous learning is where things are going to go, IMO. MOOCs aren't quite it, but they are a move in the right direction.

Also from the page:

Tuition will remain as announced for the 2020-21 academic year.

LOL. $50K/yr for a glorified MOOC.

takeda• 6 years ago

FWIW, I personally think distance learning is underrated, although I have been doing it for years so I've had time to become accustomed to it. I can understand why some students (including my wife) do not like it, and may never like it.

When I was a student after first time I took I immediately did not like it. Online courses should instead be called "study yourself" courses, because that's what they really are. In many cases teacher uses services where s/he doesn't even grade submissions. Why teacher is even needed, in fact why paying for the tuition, you could get almost the same experience by just purchasing a book and studying on your own.

The online classes could be a better experience if teachers would have to actually teach.

moksly• 6 years ago

I work as an external examiner for CS students, and one year I was assigned first semester exams. To brush up my knowledge on freshmen CS stuff I completed the CS50x course from Harvard on EDX.org and I can easily say that it was taught so much better than my own freshman year in a Danish university.

I wonder how much that plays into universities wanting to keep physical attendance. Once you go digital, you don’t really need a lot of lecturers. You still need someone to answer questions and mentor of course, but you could frankly have a handful of professors teaching the entire world.

rwmj• 6 years ago

Their endowment is $40 billion and they have 22,000 students (both figures from Google). That's about $2m per student, which is surely enough to offer free tuition to all undergrads from a small fraction of the interest payments?

owenshen24• 6 years ago

My friend who goes to USC says that this sort of bait-and-switch happened, with them updating their plans very close to the deadline when people had to make housing decisions.

andy9775• 6 years ago

FWIW, I personally think distance learning is underrated, although I have been doing it for years so I've had time to become accustomed to it. I can understand why some students (including my wife) do not like it, and may never like it.

I appreciate distance learning, it's the distance testing that doesn't work ;).

We went online at the start of the year and while some classes were ok to evaluate online, classes which require coding for example, weren't. Since you have access to an IDE they tend to test other things than what was taught - it becomes more theoretical rather than practical even though the class demands the latter.

A class would need to be fully changed to support online learning, and evaluating, say for example more focus on assignments.

ponker4• 6 years ago

The thing is that Harvard’s actual instructor to student education is far worse than many universities like liberal arts colleges that focus on instruction. Nobel Laureates are just very hit or miss on teaching while colleges like Amherst or Reed or Davidson hire only for teaching skill. The reason you go to Harvard is for the name, and for what you get from other students — that when the next Mark Zuckerberg hires his first ten employees he’s looking to you, or when your college roommate is looking to hire a portfolio manager for his $700 million inheritance he feels that he can trust you because you did kegstands together. You’re not getting anything but the Harvard name in this model, and it’s uncomfortable for everyone involved to admit that it’s all about in-group signaling.

panda8888882• 6 years ago

Seconding this comment. The quality of the undergraduate academic instruction at Harvard has a reputation for not being very good. I wish more people knew this.

You'll get a better education if you go to a state school for undergrad and then Harvard for grad school.

jimmaswell2• 6 years ago

Lab classes should at least be performed. It feels like the professors care more about alleviating 100% of their own personal risk than the thousands of students whose educations and livelihoods are on the line. Set up some plexiglass borders, open the windows, take some other precautions, but there has to be a tradeoff at some point in my opinion.

alexbanks2• 6 years ago

I don't think high risk people should "consider the tradeoff" at all. Of course they're interested in alleviating their own personal risk...do you understand what's they're risking? Would you show up to work if you were 70, just because some students wanted to take bio?

wcchandler• 6 years ago

FYI: I work in higher ed. I take some classes for free as a benefit.

It’s not a bait-and-switch at all. My employer had been completely transparent throughout this whole transition and has been more than welcoming and accepting of comments and criticism. I was actually asked for opinions on a class I took 2 years ago so they can normalize the criticism.

My opinion as a student: I’m doing exceptionally well. Given the do-it-yourself pace I’m able to take a comfortable amount of time to answer questions. I’m genuinely understanding my questions. My instructor feels more accessible given that my only way of communicating is digitally. I’m honestly trying to get as many classes in as I can with this online format so I can benefit the most from it. If all the top 10% universities can offer online classes for free at DIY paces we’ll be so much better off. It’s one of the few ways we can emerge from this disaster better off as a society.

mahaganapati3• 6 years ago

I'm confused why there is still so much fear and abnormal life in the US when the US CDC says the mortality rate is miniscule, e.g. [1]. We're not completely back to normal yet in Vietnam, but a lot closer.

[1] https://reason.com/2020/05/24/the-cdcs-new-best-estimate-imp...

paxys2• 6 years ago

1. There isn't much trust in what the government is saying at the moment, especially since their communication is usually mismanaged, incorrect or contradictory. For example, some states have passed laws/orders blocking the public release of COVID data.

2. People are also afraid of simply getting COVID, not just dying from it. It has been shown to cause permanent health issues even in young people.

hartator4• 6 years ago

It has been shown to cause permanent health issues even in young people.

Can you point to a study showing that?

dkdk8283• 6 years ago

American media is spreading fear in pursuit of views and clicks.

hartator4• 6 years ago

And a certain election coming up.

mahaganapati3• 6 years ago

Yes it seems so

shawabawa3• 6 years ago

IFR isn't the whole story. There's evidence that it causes long lasting complications (lung damage, chronic fatigue) as well

umanwizard6• 6 years ago

Are there any good quantitative estimates of how common this is?

barkerja• 6 years ago

We've had nearly 3 million cases with over 130k fatalities. If the numbers are being grossly underreported, then it's certainly possible the mortality rate is < 1%, but given the numbers we have now, our mortality rate is closer to 4.5%.

dragonwriter4• 6 years ago

Both infections and deaths are undercounts, the former certainly by much more than the latter.

pphysch2• 6 years ago

With that very dubious estimate, that's still over a million deaths and millions more occupied ICU beds if everyone in the US got infected (which we are trying hard to do, apparently).

mmm_grayons3• 6 years ago

The elderly have a massive hold on the American political system that outweighs the fraction of the population they represent. They are typically consistent voters, and if you go to a polling place, it will likely be an elderly lady or gentleman running it. Given that they represent they vast majority of casualties, putting them at risk is a political non-starter, even if the most logical realpolitik solution.

ratfaced-guy• 6 years ago

This has been my thought as well for some time now, but a lot of the most strident voices for "control it all costs" seem to be coming from the young (at least online), maybe it's different in real life?

dharmab2• 6 years ago

Severe COVID cases cause permanent disability, ranging from permanent respiratory disability to rendering the patient diabetic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIJYfsOyO4M

viklove• 6 years ago

But not to me, I'm impervious to any disability or death, therefore everyone else should just suck it up

umanwizard6• 6 years ago

Anecdotes exist, yes, but is there any data on what the probability of this happening is?

ryanSrich2• 6 years ago

Abnormal does not even begin to describe it. At least on the West Coast. No one is doing anything, most people remain in their houses all day, every day. The few people I see out are simply buying groceries or going for a walk.

A lot of bars and restaurants where I live have SELF ELECTED to re-close even after the county allowed them to open back up under very strict regulations.

It's a nightmare. There's really no other way to describe it. Either the West Coast is entirely different from the East Coast or we haven't even begun to realize the economic impact this situation is going to bring. Anything short of a complete collapse will be a miracle.

mrlala3• 6 years ago

(1) Why are you ONLY looking at the fatality rate?

I don't have all the links here, but just because you don't die doesn't mean there aren't other serious consequences (especially for people with existing conditions). People are losing their taste/smell etc. There's a lot of unknowns but it doesn't seem like it's that benign. You are treating it as binary either you live or die.. seems like it's more complicated than that.

(2) A fatality rate of 0.3% to 0.4% might not seem to bad, but you can't look at that alone. The contagion rate is HUGE compared to other viruses. So while the rate alone might not seem terribly bad, the fact is that with how contagious it is the vast majority of the population will/would have ended up getting it if proper precautions are not taken.

djsumdog5• 6 years ago

Because the case rates are almost entirely worthless. They're combining PCR AND antibody tests into the case rates!

A lot of people who are finally able to get elective procedures (some which are critical health procedures) are getting tests because everyone is required to now when you go into some hospitals. If they test positive for antibodies, they're counted AS A NEW CASE!

That's insane! They may have had it at one time and never even realized it. Even now, the fatality rate is 0.001% for all Americans and it's much lower if you're under 40.

This is absolutely, 100%, mass-hysteria.

Let us look at the numbers and decide our own risks!

Go to the beaches of Indiana or Florida or Texas. 1000s of people have been out there every week for over a month, and there are no massive increases in fatalities. The Texas numbers are skewed because people are coming in for normal accidents, happen to be CoV2 positive, and then suddenly someone in a car wreck in an ICU is now a Covid19 case as part of the "Second wave" bullshit.

airstrike2• 6 years ago

The mortality rate so far has been under the assumption that those who need to be hospitalized can be. If everyone catches it at the same time and we can't treat them, the mortality rate is bound to rise significantly.

djsumdog5• 6 years ago

Except that none of the hospitals in the US have been overrun. Instead people have died because they couldn't come in for essential surgeries.

fred_is_fred• 6 years ago

Do you have anything more recent? We're about 45 days past that estimate and the fatality rate for people who test positive is holding steady at 4.5% if you divide it out. Clearly that doesn't include anyone who never got tested (and likely people w/o symptoms didn't), so I'd like to see if the CDC still stands by the numbers here from May.

jwlake• 6 years ago

nyc said 21.6% antibody on 6/13. 32k deaths, 8.4M ppl => 1.8% IFR. CFR is much more complicated because policy changes on testing and hospitalization will make cause CFR to bounce around. Anyone argue that's a worse case scenario?

celticninja5• 6 years ago

You can work it out if you read the article. It says the high infection/death rate estimates were based on no interventions and no change of behaviour i.e no voluntary social distancing and working from home. Looking at the reaction to the lockdown, from some sections of US society, it is pretty obvious that without the lockdowns enough people would have made no changes to their behaviour and would therefore contribute to higher infection levels and desths. Further, plenty of employers would not have allowed working from home and would have expected people to attend work or lose their jobs. So infected people, predominantly poorer people, would have had no choice but to work when ill and with the atrocious healthcare system would have been unable to access help even if they didn't have to work. So those huge numbers we saw estimates of at the beginning could easily have been achieved in the US, and possibly still could. Florida saw over 10k cases a day this week. This isn't tailing off or going away, it was slowed.

Vietnam had a quick response to the problem, but it also doesn't have the same level of international travellers passing through it so it is easier to contain. The US could have contained it but that means shutting 150 airports, as opposed to Vietnams 3 airports.

Vietnam gets about 45k visitors per day, in comparison the US/Mexico border crossing in California/Tijuana has 75k crossing per day. That's one border point and there is also the US/Canada border too.

So it is in part because Vietnam handled the pandemic better than the USA, but that was also more easily achieved due to the size and complexity of each nation.

woeirua4• 6 years ago

Even at 0.3% IFR you're still talking about ~700k total fatalities in the US alone, assuming 70% of the population needs to be infected to achieve "herd immunity" without a vaccine.

It's premature for anyone, anywhere, to declare victory over the virus at this point because: 1 - there is a very high likelihood that we will have at least one more major global wave of the virus before we get an effective vaccine, 2 - we still do not know how effective said vaccine(s) will be, 3 - it's entirely possible that we will never get an effective vaccine (or it will arrive too late to mitigate most of the damage), at which point the only option will be to let the virus run its course.

umanwizard6• 6 years ago

Even at 0.3% IFR you're still talking about ~700k total fatalities in the US alone

Yes, there are a lot of people in the US, so even things with a very tiny chance of killing you will cause large numbers of deaths in absolute terms.

On the other hand, to be fair, if you’re considering absolute numbers of deaths, you _also_ have to consider absolute quantities of suffering from the lockdown. Take the probability of a person being thrust into poverty, or developing serious mental health problems, or just spending some of their precious time on earth unable to socialize normally... and multiply that by 300,000,000.

There would be many ways of saving 700,000 or more lives that are much less invasive than the current lockdowns, like heavily restricting meat consumption or driving. However, we don’t implement them because the per-capita increase in life expectancy is judged not to be worth the decrease in life quality.

devalgo4• 6 years ago

Why is there this laser focus on Fatality rate as a talking point for anti-mask anti-lockdown types? Is death the only undesirable outcome? Polio had historic mortality rates around 5% in children, would you want your children to catch polio? Would you push for herd immunity for polio and have >60% of the children in the country catch it? It's simply absurd! There are other health risks besides death to consider. How does no one see that?

Half of the US seems to think this is just a GLOBAL conspiracy to hurt Donald Trump, like are you dense? You think the entire world would torpedo their economies just for the chance to hurt Trump? These people need help.

I am consistently disappointed by the lack of critical thinking in HN comments.

s1artibartfast6• 6 years ago

Fatalities is the best data we have, has common definition, and can be used to set policy. Everyone in the US knows that there are other undesirable outcomes besides death, but there is a lack of data on the rates, duration, or importance.

umanwizard6• 6 years ago

Polio had historic mortality rates around 5% in children, would you want your children to catch polio?

No, nor would I want my children (or anyone) to get covid. This is a separate question from whether the current lockdown measures increase life expectancy and if so, whether they’re worth it.

There are other health risks besides death to consider.

Yes, there are. Again, a reasonable person might think the probability of those occurring is either (1) low enough to begin with or (2) not much decreased by the lockdown, that the negative effects of the lockdown outweigh it. Do you have any non-anecdotal discussion of (1) how common permanent disability from Covid is, and (2) how many severe covid cases are prevented by lockdowns?

Half of the US seems to think this is just a GLOBAL conspiracy to hurt Donald Trump

Nobody in this thread said that covid is not serious or that it is a conspiracy, or anything about Trump, so this is a complete non sequitur. Certainly, there are people in the US who believe that covid is a global conspiracy to hurt Trump, which is absurd, but it’s an obvious fallacy to argue like “some people make absurd arguments for proposition P, therefore P is wrong”.

DanBC• 6 years ago

That number isn't something the CDC have said.

The CDC report lists a number of planning scenarios.

Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.

The number you're quoting is derived from (but not quoted in) one of the scenarios, which is described:

Scenario 5 represents a current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States, with the same caveat: that the parameter values will change as more data become available.

asdff12• 6 years ago

Considering that COVID has killed nearly two Vietnam War's worth of Americans in 7 months and is surging by the day in many areas, I think we could stand to have a bit of fear and spool some things down for now.

otoburb3• 6 years ago

I hope they and other universities increase vision insurance/benefits. From experience, staying glued to a Zoom screen for over >6hrs a day for an extended period of time places tremendous strain on the eyes.

ryanSrich2• 6 years ago

Imagine paying the fee for a Harvard MBA and missing out on arguably the most valuable aspect of it - nepotism and networking.

hartator4• 6 years ago

This. You can also learn everything taught there and better by just buying and reading the books.

falcor84• 6 years ago

Beyond nepotism, there's a lot of actual learning experiences you can gain from your peers by debating them in case study lessons, working with them on projects and participating in simulations etc.

tengbretson• 6 years ago

And two, you dropped a hundred and fifty grand on a fuckin’ education you coulda got for a dollar fifty in late charges at the Public Library.
Yah think yah so smaht? How do you like them apples?

015UUZn8aEvW2• 6 years ago

It's even more than that. The classroom experience is absolutely central to the program.

ss2003• 6 years ago

That can be done online too.

pphysch2• 6 years ago

A lot of the aforementioned things happen spontaneously and not within the confines of a scheduled 1-hour seated meetings.

Has Harvard even announced that they are using more "mingly" online conferencing tools?

andygcook• 6 years ago

I'm friends with quite a few Harvard MBAs now (think what you will, but the ones I know are all great people :) because my partner is a Harvard MBA. Without a doubt, they all said they'd take a gap year if they were in the current situation. Half the value is the credentialing, but the other half is the experience and network you build through it.

shuckles3• 6 years ago

Unfortunately, Harvard's offer to admitted MBAs was to defer til 2021 or 2022, but the specific year would be up to Harvard. That's not uncertainty that many people with families and advanced careers can or should plan around. People in their mid-20s should definitely defer regardless.

screye2• 6 years ago

I find it completely absurd that so many people are happy about remote classrooms.

Online videos and assignments at most top universities have been available for free for years now. Universities are entirely about the advantage of learning in person, peer groups and signalling.

If the value of university when remote remains the same for your major/university, then it is a scathing indictment of the in-classroom experience the major/university offered.

If I found myself in such a situation, the first thing I would do is un-enroll and reflect on the stupid financial decisions I've made.

I hope this is a wake up call for middling private universities and non-lucrative majors that can be easily made remote. A $100k+ fee for something that can be accessed online for free without any real loss in value is highway robbery.

albntomat02• 6 years ago

There is some amount of capture of returning students. Due to the difficulties of transferring, it may be easier and collectively cheaper for a senior to return for their final year.

vkou5• 6 years ago

Online videos and assignments at most top universities have been available for free for years now. Universities are entirely about the advantage of learning in person, peer groups and signalling.

If anyone seriously doubts this, consider that pretty much any young person in America can just walk into a university lecture hall, and sit through all the classes they could ever wish for, without paying a cent. [1] Nobody takes attendance, and if you look like a student, nobody's going to notice that you're not actually enrolled in the class.

And yet, nobody actually does this! Instead, millions of people pay hundreds of thousands of dollars in tuition, so that their attendance will be officially recorded.

Those people aren't stupid. They aren't paying for the education, they are paying for everything besides the education.

[1] Okay, it may cost you a few hundred dollars per year to buy second-hand, old-edition books, if you can't be arsed to study at the university library. This is much less of a financial hurdle than having the luxury to devote 20-40 hours/week on attending classes, and doing classwork.

mberning• 6 years ago

I think people selfishly like many aspects of the covid lockdown. But they may regret it later. I know many school teachers that have enjoyed a very light workload this spring and are rooting for something similar in the fall. It may go on for a while, but at some point administrators and tax payers will realize there is no reason to pay for so many teacher salaries. It’s going to be rough.

bartread• 6 years ago

It's not just Harvard. I feel bad for anybody who was due to go to pretty much any university this year because they're going to miss out on so much of the experience.

If it were me I'd be looking to defer and reapply later, but then I went to the University of Nottingham and, if they'd chosen not to accept me when I reapplied, I'd probably have been just as happy in Bristol or London. If you're due to attend a high prestige institution like Harvard or Cambridge, where demand far outstrips supply, it becomes a much more difficult decision. Attending those schools is an end in itself and if your heart is set on that end you might feel you're risking a little too much by deferring.

aardvark1• 6 years ago

This decision does not apply to HBS though

Anon4Now• 6 years ago

Nepotism means showing favoritism towards family members, e.g., a nephew hired or promoted instead of a more qualified person.

Sorry to nitpick. I just see that word misused a lot online. I doubt that you're implying that a person would be effectively disowned by family members for taking a semester of their Harvard MBA program online instead of on site.

centimeter2• 6 years ago

Nepotism also refers to preferential treatment of friends and loosely defined "family" members (e.g. members of your tribal group), and universities like Harvard are certainly involved in laundering that kind of behavior.

amiga_5002• 6 years ago

So they are not deluding themselves about how transmissible covid is, nor how serious it is.

Meanwhile the rest get told to get back to the office.

pwthornton• 6 years ago

Having taught a semester online, I think you can do really good teaching online, but you need a few things:

1) Small class sizes. Mine was under 15. Otherwise, very little discussion happens 2) A lot of work & learning assigned outside of class 3) Time each class for sub-groups

I do think they will have to adjust the tuition. It is hard to justify paying 60k or whatever Harvard charges for online education. It is objectively much, much cheaper to deliver.

Schools will need to invest in a lot more online tools and training, however.

I don't understand how larger class sizes will happen, unless they are going completely lecture.

The other thing I did with my small class was set up a Slack channel. I was available daily to chat about whatever and give feedback and work through concepts.

I spent a tremendous amount of time chatting with students on Zoom and Slack inbetween classes when I taught online last semester.

The idea that good online teaching is just like some free MOOC is not reality-based. It needs to be very hands-on.

screye2• 6 years ago

My friend just did a full course load remote summer semester it was significantly more taxing.

Group study is harder. Keeping attention in class is harder. Having your eyes stuck to a screen the whole day is harder.

The idea that good online teaching is just like some free MOOC is not reality-based. It needs to be very hands-on.

Kudos to you. From what I've seen, online courses continue to be MOOC-esque or even worse. At least MOOCs have mature systems in place that facilitate learning through their system, however inefficient.

ksml3• 6 years ago

I had a very similar experience teaching a class of 23, including the Slack, which students found very helpful. I was also a student in a class of 60 and quality of discussion suffered, although I'm not sure it's 100% because of the online format (I think the instructors could have done a better job facilitating discussion)

vmchale• 6 years ago

Consequences of an utterly inept pandemic response.

nick_kline2• 6 years ago

What would be a good strategy? I think this makes sense for students and for professors, think of vulnerable people, the cost of going there and then the later canceling.

DebtDeflation• 6 years ago

If I'm reading this correctly, all incoming Freshman will spend Fall semester living on campus and all graduating Seniors will do likewise for Spring semester, however all courses will be online only. I can't imagine doing online coursework from the dorm and I'm not sure what kind of safety is being gained by just avoiding the classroom while social interactions continue.

code4tee• 6 years ago

COVID-19 will likely be a watershed moment for higher education in the US. Many colleges and universities will likely never return to what they had before. There will be immense pressure to rethink how the whole system works and the cost structures therein.

At many schools the cost increases over the last few decades have very little to do with increasing the quality of education and a lot to do with unnecessary expenses and ever growing administrative bloat. It’s going to be hard for schools to justify their cost when they’re running essentially an online school and that’s the first step towards the whole house of cards falling apart. Expect to see a lot of changes in the coming years. It will be painful but for the best in the long term in getting schools back to basics of providing education.

Schools like Harvard will be fine but outside the top tier it’s about to get real ugly.

mrlala3• 6 years ago

Feel sorry for the students right now having to face all this.. but it's for the best overall.

College needs to be massively re-imagined in this country. The costs are so out of control it's insane. As a parent with 2 younger kids, trying to save to help them with college some seems monumental.

flatline• 6 years ago

unnecessary expenses and every growing administrative bloat

This is a problem, and yet, I’m unsure how “unnecessary” that administrative overhead really is. If you went to college in the 70s you didn’t have all that. But college wasn’t a requirement, it was an entitlement (loosely speaking) and the people who attended largely reflected this - they were entitled, privileged. Even at a public school they were from comfortably middle class homes, white, etc. If you were poor, non-white, you were largely excluded. If you had mental health problems, you were on your own. In fact if you had any sort of special need you were on your own, there was no support from the school - they were academic institutions!

So much of the work over the last 50 years has been to bridge these gaps. College is now practically a requirement for a comfortable middle class existence in the US. So we try to make sure everyone can go, even graduate, and this is the result. I still view schools as being pretty lean on staffing, for what they provide. All these problems with schools are symptoms of a larger societal issue in my mind.

peruvian2• 6 years ago

I graduated from an expensive-but-not-elite private school (with a full scholarship). By the time I graduated it was over half international students, particularly in the MBA programs.

Not sure what they'll do now. I think these institutions have to massively change their priorities in the coming ten years to survive.

That said, a friend of mine has a cousin that's an international student from China. Apparently her school (large state school) is offering online classes in China time!

Balgair2• 6 years ago

ICE's decision is going to radically impact this. In-person classes or bust. I cannot imagine the migraines that sub-50 university presidents are having today.

fullstop2• 6 years ago

I certainly hope so. I have been saving education money since before my children were even conceived and it is truly disheartening to watch tuition increase by leaps and bounds. My wife and I both greatly value education, and I am certain that my children will obtain some sort of scholarship on their own merit, but I would not shed a tear if the University bubble popped before then.

My oldest is enrolled in online classes at a large state school, and will be graduating from high school in two years. At worst I have saved enough money for both of my children to attend the school of their choice. If it all falls apart, I've secured education expenses for them and their children if they choose that path.

I would love to see some sort of regulation on endowments and either taxing them or forcing Universities to spend at least a portion of them on a yearly basis.

chrisjarvis• 6 years ago

I hope you are right, this reckoning is LONG overdue.

augustt• 6 years ago

Finally, now the rest of us can wait for our administrations to copy them (at least MIT has been following their every move).

perpetualpatzer• 6 years ago

MIT announced roughly the same plan 2 weeks earlier.

[0] https://covid19.mit.edu/initial-decisions-about-fall-at-mit

annoyingnoob• 6 years ago

I would hope that Harvard students could adapt pretty easily. The public school my kids go to will only be open 2 days per week next year, mostly for tech support. That is a real travesty for the kids, especially with Mom and Dad going to work, the kids will be one their own often trying to get it done. I'll be spending my evenings playing teacher after a full day of work. I refuse to let me kids fall behind, its obvious that the government won't do anything but send kids home and hope for the best. The kids need the classroom and need to be social. Not looking for my family to get covid but we need to do more to educate the next generation.

ManBlanket• 6 years ago

Aren't healthy young adults for the most part isolated to a single area sort of a decent path toward herd immunity while minimizing the death rate of Covid-19? Wait, but Harvard, they're rich. I forgot it was poor and minorities charged with face risks for white upper class. Oh, sorry I meant, "essential" people.

soganess• 6 years ago

Don't the professors who are not always healthy young people also deserve to not get sick?

(My mom instructs chemistry at a university and she almost 65)

dragonwriter4• 6 years ago

Aren't healthy young adults for the most part isolated to a single area sort of a decent path toward herd immunity while minimizing the death rate of Covid-19?

No, there’s no such thing. “Herd immunity by infection” is a failure endgame, not a success goal, and the people involved in in-person instructivo aren’t categorically young (especially not the instructors) or healthy, much less exclusively in the intersection of those two sets.

paxys2• 6 years ago

It's crazy how much the entire country is outraged over Harvard's tuition during COVID. Maybe worry about getting in first? Or even better, focus your anger on your state university system's funding and tuition costs.

The majority of Harvard students receive financial aid anyways, and a fifth of them pay nothing. Whether online classes are worth it or not remains to be seen, but it's not a decision the country's masses have to make.

wycy• 6 years ago

plans to bring up to 40% of our undergraduates to campus, including all first-year students, for the fall semester. Assuming that we maintain 40% density in the spring semester, we would again bring back one class, and our priority at this time is to bring seniors to campus

I'm not sure what exactly is achieved by having 40% density if that decreased density isn't evenly distributed. Unless I'm misreading, the incoming Freshman classes will all be at 100% density.

itslennysfault• 6 years ago

I think it's pretty transparent that it's just because they need the Freshman class to pay that first year tuition so they're hooked.

After their first semester on campus they're much more likely to deal with remote learning for the remainder.

ksml3• 6 years ago

I think you make it sound more ill intentioned than it is. Freshman year is crucial to forming new connections, finding organizations to join, and adapting to a new environment. It's not just about "dealing with remote learning"; it's also very much about meeting new people face-to-face and making friends they can lean on over Zoom for the semesters to come.

ksml3• 6 years ago

Why would the density need to be distributed across classes? I think the idea is to have fewer people in the dorms, so that e.g. no one shares a room, to reduce potential for spread of disease.

Traster• 6 years ago

You want to have fewer people in each class so that they don't have to be in such close proximity to each other.

modzu• 6 years ago

looking back at all of the things i most appreciated about going to university, classes are near the bottom of the list. you cant put a price on the relationships you form, the labs, the teams and companies that you spin off, the hands on activities with tools and technology and artifacts you could never access otherwise, even simply being away somewhere you didnt grow up. you dont just put that on the internet anymore than you can expect cybersex to yield offspring

Digory• 6 years ago

Athletics are going to be reeling.

No announcement yet, but this effectively kills football, no?

legitster• 6 years ago

I recently talked to someone who worked in higher ed administration, and they said that Covid may sink hundreds of smaller private colleges across the country that have quietly been on the financial brink this whole time. So they are all focused on keeping as much revenue coming in as possible.

On the other side of all of this, I am imagining a world where higher education is not nearly as important as we pretend it is now.

aphextron• 6 years ago

I love seeing all of these random meaningless "safe limit" numbers with regards to reopening things. Yeah, 40%, that sounds good right? Sure why not! Is this based on anything at all but an arbitrary bureaucratic decision? Nope!

kolbe2• 6 years ago

Well, it was going to be a minimum 25% to allow all the first-year students in, because Harvard saw that they were going to defer in droves if they couldn't go on-campus.

kolbe2• 6 years ago

You want to know why people are having difficulty trusting science? Because the institutions that guide science in the United States seem to frequently come to self-serving decisions.

In this case, Harvard is not allowing all first years to come to campus because it's safer; they're doing it because first years are more likely to defer if they couldn't go to campus.

If scientists want people to listen to them, start helping them. Don't lie about mask efficiency, because you want the masks for yourselves. Don't make other people lose their jobs, while continuing to collect your own paycheck. Don't admonish protests as being unsafe when they're conservative, but bless them when they're liberal.

gringoDan3• 6 years ago

I left college for a semester, then re-enrolled and graduated. It's incredibly easy to do.

If I were a current Harvard student, I'd drop out for the next year. Take some community college courses, work, travel (in a COVID-responsible way...maybe road trips only).

This is a unique opportunity to get off of the well-trodden path and far preferable to sitting in front of a computer in your parents' house for a year.

There is a huge safety net once you've gotten into an Ivy or other top school. Best case scenario, you start a business and no longer need Harvard, a la Zuckerberg or Gates. Worst case scenario, you graduate broke at 23 (with some great stories), rather than broke at 22 (without the stories).

The value of a college degree is:

1) Signaling/exclusivity (the diploma)

2) The connections you make

3) The subject matter that you learn

4) The social environment – all of the benefits of adulthood with none of the responsibilities

Distance learning only hits #3 on that list. Harvard can get away with charging full tuition for its classes because...it's Harvard. So it also hits #1. But the majority of schools are in for a rude awakening when they realize that students were paying for the social environment and aren't willing to, in the words of Good Will Hunting, "Waste $150,000 on an education you coulda got for $1.50 in late fees at the public library."

opportune2• 6 years ago

Unless you urgently need to start a business right now, I don’t see how this has a higher expected value compared to doing the same after you graduate.

gringoDan3• 6 years ago

It doesn't have higher expected value and I wouldn't necessarily advise going down this path in normal times. But calculating the expected value only takes into account the diploma and learning subject matter, none of the other benefits.

The decision right now is between a) paying full price for a watered-down college experience (graduating earlier) and b) gaining some life experience and potentially getting "the full" college experience in a year or two for the same price (albeit with the drawback of a later graduation date).

albntomat02• 6 years ago

I'm not the original commenter, but I'd bet their logic is that the value of being at Harvard for 2020-2021 is less than that of Harvard for 2021-2022.

The expected value of a startup (heavily dependent on what type of startup...) is the same either this year or next, but the opportunity cost is less.

asdff12• 6 years ago

It does if the in person version of your classes are more engaging than the online versions you would be stuck with otherwise.

qntty2• 6 years ago

Hopefully you're being metaphorical with the use of the term expected value, or are you really suggesting that a young person plans their education based on what's more profitable? Not that money isn't something to consider, but the "value" you get out of your education and other formative experiences isn't measured in dollars.

woeirua4• 6 years ago

Bingo, this is what every college student should be doing right now. Most colleges have a well established process for deferring your education for a year or more due to various exigencies that can arise during those years.

I would also argue, that this is what most parents should be doing for their younger kids too. We all know that remote learning sucks for young kids. You basically have to sacrifice one parent to just sit at home and help the kids through their online coursework. At that point, you're better off putting them in daycare for a year, working, and then re-enrolling them for the next year. Will they be behind a year? Sure, but they'll also have a big advantage over their peers who got a half-assed education from the past year and were forced into the next grade.

thekyle2• 6 years ago

I would do this except I would lose my $12,000 a semester in scholarship from my university. Most scholarships do seem to require continuous enrollment.

Also, students with deferred loans would need to begin paying those back.

saurik• 6 years ago

You might very well be right, but it isn't obvious to me that putting off some key foundational learning while your brain is still forming is as reasonable as putting off a year of college. (Though I also have some vague memory of studies showing people who were older for their grade got more benefit than the younger students? This is a very vague memory, though.)

dylan604• 6 years ago

gap years, if done responsibly as you say (not in front of the tv), can be extremely life enriching. i'd highly suggest spending some time abroad. getting out of your "only lived at home, now in college" bubble can expose you to other things when you're still young and impressionable while being open to new things.

mirthflat836• 6 years ago

I'd drop out for the next year. Take some community college courses

Harvard students have better things to do other than taking community college courses... it is absolutely a waste of time to take classes that are a joke.

spankalee2• 6 years ago

What classes would be a joke?

jeffreyrogers2• 6 years ago

I went to Harvard, and I've taken classes at community college. You're either vastly overestimating Harvard or vastly underestimating community college.

asdff12• 6 years ago

It's not a waste of time to get done with some general classes that you don't care about at all yet need to graduate. In fact you will be saving money. Do I need the harvard version of Calc I when they teach the same exact rehashed AP calculus stuff at the community college and the credit counts the same as taking Calc I Harvard?

buwka• 6 years ago

While in I high school, I always held the impression that college would be full of immensely enriching educational experiences. Courses, primarily those by world renown universities, would be so transformative that they would compensate for the substandard education system of the United States. However, after living with students at various universities and eventually attending an Ivy League University, I found that many of the courses were quite comparable to any simple online course I found on the topic, no matter if it was being taught by another top 50 university, top 100, or random high school teacher. Many Ivy League students worked incredibly hard to attend their respective universities, however, like any other school, there are many that exist far from that stereotypical characterization. Likewise, I know many brilliant people who attended lesser known universities of far less prestige. Harvard students are probably better than average students but definitely not special enough to think they have nothing more to learn, no one is. I would highly encourage everyone to keep an open mind and look for what others can teach you.

divbzero• 6 years ago

In fact, students admitted to Harvard this year will not need to drop out to pursue the plan you lay out. Harvard is giving new admits the option to defer admission until the following year. This decision was made, I believe, with recognition that the value of Harvard is in large part the social environment and connections you experience in person.

koheripbal3• 6 years ago

Harvard is a bad example because there are always way more kids that want to go to Harvard than are willing to defer.

They can tap the wait list for everyone else.

throwaway1313• 6 years ago

Deferrals require you to re-apply, which means you might not get in again.

koheripbal3• 6 years ago

That depends on the school. Many do not require you to re-apply.

fullstop2• 6 years ago

Archive link since the site is hammered: https://archive.is/ACRGl

slugiscool99• 6 years ago

Here's Cornell's email to students if anyone was curious:

https://www.scribd.com/document/468208772/Cornell-Mail-Plans...

ilyas121• 6 years ago

Probably the first MA college that I've seen to say only freshman coming back. Mine, (WPI) still has been telling every undergrad that everything is only optionally online, and that they would just convert triples to doubles and the usual covid guidelines. Freshman-only seems to me more realistic although disheartening to hear as a rising senior.

MiroF10• 6 years ago

Freshman-only seems to me more realistic although disheartening to hear as a rising senior.

I think that most schools will do most everything they can to ensure that the senior class still has a senior spring.

zekrioca• 6 years ago

It would be good to emphasize this applies to the Faculty of Arts and Sciences.

pjdemers• 6 years ago

I have two children in college. One college announced a similar plan, half of students on campus at a time. If the plan is followed through, then, the class of 2022 will spend 17 straight months on campus, from January 2021 until graduation in May 2022. The college held an online question and answer for parents. The question of burn out for the class of 2022 came up. The school president's answer was: That's a problem we would love to have. Basically, the school thinks there will be several more complete shutdowns over the next few years.

omot• 6 years ago

I personally think the value of a Harvard education is not necessarily what you learn, but who you meet. That's why it's critical for majority of the student body to be in close proximity to one another. I wonder if they could crack the challenges of building rapport between students remotely.

sriram_sun• 6 years ago

The brand must go on.

rurban• 6 years ago

Preferring seniors to attend the campus and all you fees to stay at home and learn remote is illogical. Seniors can finalize their exams much easier from home than juniors who do need the campus and direct contact with many. Seniors only need their advisor.

But I never thought that Harvard can think logically.

MiroF10• 6 years ago

This will be Senior's last impression of the school before they become alumni (and donors).

chanmad29• 6 years ago

With the new ICE Directive, I wonder how much of “this is the right thing to do” will change. From a physical well being perspective, remote is right. But with International student visa statuses at risk, the onus is now on Harvard to enable in person classes for those at risk?

the_svd_doctor4• 6 years ago

It seems so. If they want to have international students attending (from the US), it cannot be 100% online.

fireflux_• 6 years ago

Apparently ICE won't let international students stay in the US in an "online only" school [0]. Makes me realize that as convenient as it is to be able to get education online, having fast internet speed is a privilege.

[0] https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/12802074875730698...

the_svd_doctor4• 6 years ago

You're correct. Original press release is https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/sevp-modifies-temporary-ex...

gz5• 6 years ago

So first year students can live on campus in the fall semester but not attend classes in person.

I understand all classes having an online option, but am surprised they aren't mixed modality so the students on campus can be in person.

Is it more difficult/expensive to make a classroom safe than the rest of the campus? Or professors have pushed back on mixed modality (due to health and/or logistics concerns)? Or something else?

the_svd_doctor4• 6 years ago

Interestingly, DHS just decided today that international students cannot maintain their legal status with a 100% online education https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/sevp-modifies-temporary-ex...

koheripbal3• 6 years ago

It's hard to argue with that.

bransonf• 6 years ago

Well, there are some consequences we must consider.

Foreign student populations contribute a great deal of money to Universities. It is typical at many private institutions that foreign students pay 100% sticker price.

If that institution goes full online, many international students may be unwilling to give up their immigration status and transfer. Likewise, institutions with large immigrant cohorts may be pressured to remain in-person to retain these financials (compounded by the fact that they are financially struggling as is).

Similarly, access to broadband is often taken for granted in the United States. You cannot guarantee in other countries that you will have sufficient access to fast and free (as in unrestricted) internet access. At which point, you simply cannot remain enrolled at your current institution. (Essentially you would get deported, and lose a year of your education)

The social issue of immigration aside, I think in economic terms this could be pressuring universities, and in perhaps the wrong way.

the_svd_doctor4• 6 years ago

Well it means if Harvard goes through and is 100% online it won’t be able to have international students attending from the US. So it is essentially forcing universities to have at least a hybrid schedule (universities won’t pass on the nice 100% sticker price tuition paid by internationals).

yingw787• 6 years ago

I remember one inspiring story from a few years ago, a student who did janitor work to pay family bills before going to Harvard: https://www.cnn.com/2012/06/07/us/from-janitor-to-harvard/in...

Hope colleges can prioritize students from underprivileged backgrounds. They might even be safer on campus.

mlthoughts2018• 6 years ago

“ Tuition will remain as announced for the 2020-21 academic year.”

jfc

crb002• 6 years ago

The only barrier is making cafeterias safe with acrylic barriers and decentralizing them. Masking works.

TeeMassive• 6 years ago

Now that most courses can be taught online I've always wondered why not more companies would offer certified examination.

I mean, you follow a course, you get graded in a certified grading facility; what else remains to justify those absurd tuition fees?

matthewfcarlson• 6 years ago

I've been attending online courses this semester (I'm a part-time masters student) and it has been interesting comparing them to my on-campus courses. At first, I was glad to not have to make the trip down there after work since the buses don't run often enough in the evening and it can be easy to be stuck waiting in the cold. But as time went on, I began to be frustrated. I'm paying frankly exorbitant amounts of money and getting basically, a live Udemy course with 20-40 other people at the same time. Previously, a lot of the value was the interaction with the professor and my peers. While I do think virtual education, done right, is indeed highly undervalued but also rarely done well. I don't think I should be paying the same amount for a frankly worse product.

I'm curious to see how universities adapt to this in the future.

LatteLazy• 6 years ago

With more companies going to WFH and distributed models (even before coronavirus), I think its important for people to learn the skills needed. So I don't see why more (high) schools and universities don't do WFH at least some of the time.

Obviously there is more to university than logging in and watching a video lecture etc. But given the new normal, airs not a bad thing to have to do that sometimes...

mvkel2• 6 years ago

This move will unveil the commoditization of education.

The value any school provides is campus connection. These campuses become part of a student’s identity, and drive strong loyalty for life. What happens when they’re no longer on campus? How does that connection happen?

Decision for 2020-21 Academic Year

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