Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025

by mempko • 2 years ago

181 354 2 years ago

nvidianews.nvidia.com

Ologn• 2 years ago

Earnings estimates were bumped up recently by analysts due to buying (a lot of which looks like from FAANGs) and Nvidia beat those estimates, on top of the enormous run-up in revenues and profits it has had in the past year.

almog5• 2 years ago

Guidance should be out soon and it might change things a bit but so far, the stock barely moves (compared to past earning reports) even with stock split + dividend increase. This looks rather bearish.

TheAlchemist5• 2 years ago

Dividend yield is 0.02% - the increase is meaningless anyway.

It's quite amazing to me how the stock splits tends to boost the price, or at least it's the perception. What's the underlying mecanism ?

drexlspivey3• 2 years ago

You can’t buy options on a $1000 stock, the notional amount for each contract would be $100k

throwaway20004• 2 years ago

maybe allows more retail investors to buy? hypothetically fractional shares solves this but i bet in practice, not many folks buy fractional shares.

almog5• 2 years ago

I think it mostly just opens the door to retail investors with a smaller account. The announcement of a stock split by itself create that expectation and drives the price up.

SantiagoQ• 2 years ago

The underlying mechanism is that supply (of stocks) will decrease. The boost in prize is an anticipation of the result.

In poor economic theory, there shouldn't be any change, but if you consider behavioral economics, and regulations that introduct inefficiencies it explains the change in price.

It also communicates to investors (through action) the plan, apetite for risk, and investment opportunities (for the company) moving forward.

nvy2• 2 years ago

One of the primary reasons companies split their stock is to keep the price in a more natural trading range where there's likely to be more liquidity.

An n-way stock split in theory should reduce the price by a factor of n (that is, a 2:1 split ought to halve the price) but what we're seeing now is likely just price discovery based on the bullish earnings report.

tverbeure• 2 years ago

Not a comment about the stock price increase due to splits, but very high stock prices are an issue for employee stock purchase plans (ESPP): they can't offer fractional shares and they need to round down.

If you set aside 15% of a gross salary of $100k for 6 months, that's $7500. When the stock is at $1000, you get 7 shares. If the stock is $100, you get 75 shares. The lower your income, the more you miss out on ESPP that way.

It's not a huge deal if the stock is flat (you only get a 15% discount), but for a fast appreciating stock, those additional 5 shares can be real money.

epolanski3• 2 years ago

Many people around the world can invest only small amounts per month. A 1000$ price makes the entry high.

Only some trading platforms allow for buying of fractional shares.

The underlying logic is that lower per share price would increase volume and maybe a bit the price.

matwood2• 2 years ago

Makes options more accessible. It also an additional signal of bullishness from the company.

Before partial shares and odd lots, it also let less money buy the stock.

mbesto• 2 years ago

the stock barely moves even with stock split + dividend increase. This looks rather bearish.

Already priced in. Look at comps of PE ratios in tech focused companies and you'll see what I mean.

jejeyyy774• 2 years ago

lol, you realize markets are closed right? this is all low volume after market trading.

almog5• 2 years ago

Of course, all earning reports occurs outside trading hours. In the past though, most of the price action following earnings happened in after hours trading. Again, it might change after conference call but that's just the way it's been in the past quarters at least.

Bluecobra• 2 years ago

Depending on your broker you are able to trade certain symbols 24 hours a day now:

https://www.bankrate.com/investing/24-hour-stock-trading/

gopher_space• 2 years ago

Is it just that they rely on someone else’s fab?

martinpw• 2 years ago

Bit premature to say that. It's now up 7% after hours. And of course tomorrow is what really matters.

almog5• 2 years ago

Premature to say what? It's an observation based on past earning reports that preceded earning calls. Even the peak 7% post earnings call (now 5.7% and probably a different number by the time I hit "reply") is a relatively small move compared to past 4 quarters and that's without even taking the stock split + dividend increase into account.

Sure, tomorrow it can get to 15% but all I can compare it with right now is the past price action post earnings.

foota5• 2 years ago

Nvidia must be the fastest growing in revenue a company has ever been at their revenue, right?

If you adjust for inflation I imagine they'd have some competition from the robber barons, but it's hard to imagine.

groceryheist2• 2 years ago

The topline is that the meteoric growth has already occurred. 18% quarterly revenue growth is good, YoY growth was 15x that.

foota5• 2 years ago

Imo this depends on whether the limiting factor is demand or production.

If it's production capacity, then if in a year they're able to get TSMC to make them twice as many chips, they could likely increase their growth rate?

I'd be sweating if I were any of TSMCs other customers right now and trying to renew my contract. Idk what the ratio is in size between an H100 and an M3, but I doubt it's anywhere near proportional to how much nvidia is willing to offer TSMC.

madisp2• 2 years ago

18% quarterly comes to around 190% yearly, still _very_ good!

skirmish2• 2 years ago

meteoric growth

Are you aware that meteors only go down, never up?

ramesh31• 2 years ago

Imagine the vindication Jensen is feeling at this point. Not even about the money, just about being so completely right after 20 years of hard work and a vision.

kadushka• 2 years ago

Imagine what Hinton or Lecun feel!

schmidtleonard• 2 years ago

The A100 video needs to go in the museum exhibit. This is the one that trained ChatGPT.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=So7TNRhIYJ8

nabla913• 2 years ago

They are printing money with H100. The cost of for Nvidia is maybe $3k and have been selling it for $40k+

TSMC fab capacity and packaging are the bottlenecks for revenue growth.

beggi• 2 years ago

TSMC should be charging NVDA much more

nabla913• 2 years ago

Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were:

  400% earnings growth and
  242% revenue growth.

The reality was

  461% earnings growth (629% GAAP)
  262% revenue growth.

Nvidia did it again.

nabla913• 2 years ago

Bloomberg consensus data expectations YoY were:

  400% earnings growth and
  242% revenue growth.

The reality was

  461% earnings growth (629% GAAP)
  262% revenue growth.

78.9% gross margin.

Nvidia did it again.

deadbabe4• 2 years ago

How do they keep doing this

nabla913• 2 years ago

as long as supply << demand.

trhway• 2 years ago

in the past - Industrial Revolution - when somebody started producing something profitable others would start similar production too. In our post-Industrial age software provides the moat protecting your hardware margin. The IBM's PC cloning was the perfect illustration when such a moat wasn't utilized. Everybody learned the lesson, pushed for DMCA and the likes and here we're.

Speaking about how high is the specific moat here - NVDA had great foresight starting to develop their CUDA almost 20 years ago. I at the time was thinking - the HPC market couldn't be that big to support that investment. Well, when 10 year ago the GPU deep learning arrived with AlexNet the CUDA was ready for that Valkyrie ride we've been seeing since then while all the other players are only starting to wake up at best.

That is on supply side. On the demand side - if any projections about AI even in nanobots in your blood come even partially true - we have decades of AI technology growth ahead, and like with other foundational technologies of our civilization - electricity and the internet and the space (guess who is going to mine He3 on the Moon?) - it will be everywhere. NVDA probably like any other company will stagnate and become MBA heaven like say IBM or even rot and perish and/or somebody will come up with completely different technology for AI leaving NVDA in the dust, yet it is hard to see how it can take less than coupe of decades (i.e. hardly can happen until Jensen leaves). (i'm long if any asks :)

erickj• 2 years ago

Think of their revenue in an ecosystem.

Google announced 2 weeks ago that its Q1 capex for datacenters and servers was $12B. This was up 100% y/y. Goog also expects for this capex spend to be ongoing... A healthy chunk of that is all going to Nvda

chaostheory• 2 years ago

They have no viable competitors at the moment, and there's still a gold rush for AI.

MuffinFlavored• 2 years ago

Nvidia did it again.

All that for a measly 4% after hours bump? It's like "the street" is tired of this trick/doesn't have much more to give.

HPsquared• 2 years ago

All that means is the market already expected the result to be a good one. The share price already went up on that expectation.

tedunangst2• 2 years ago

"Consensus expectations" aren't dollar weighted.

nabla913• 2 years ago

Revenue 8% above estimate, earnings 15%. The price is not just for one quarter but discounted future quarters.

I predict that the price can go up 8 - 10% tomorrow.

MangoCoffee3• 2 years ago

Intel could get lucky like Nvidia if Intel doesn't buy back stock and instead spends money on R&D.

edit: "Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger raised a few eyebrows by attributing Nvidia's current dominance of the AI market to luck" - https://www.extremetech.com/computing/nvidia-engineer-respon....

nabla913• 2 years ago

Nvidia is fabless.

What Intel really needs to do is get competitive with TSMC. Gelsinger started the process instantly when he became the CEO, but it takes time.

alecco• 2 years ago

They would need a culture change. Starting with a mostly independent Skunk Works division and a rethink of their software stack. I wouldn't bet on any of that happening.

Havoc3• 2 years ago

Not convinced Intel can turn this around. Both on server and consumer side they've been losing share to AMD for like 7 years straight...cross generations, cross platform...just everywhere with amazing consistency. And if half of the AMD roadmaps/rumours are true then the next couple years will be worse.

...so yeah some casual R&D isn't gonna cut it...they need to pull a rabbit out of a hat urgently.

legitster• 2 years ago

I know it's never going to happen, but Nvidia really should spin off their consumer division - it's such a complete afterthought at this point. They are sitting on all of this amazing technology but just kind of stringing along the market at this point.

epolanski3• 2 years ago

Why should they?

The underlying technology is the same.

ftufek• 2 years ago

Their consumer cards are the entry point for many researchers and students though, so it pays off eventually when they become engineers working with the expensive enterprise cards.

pciexpgpu• 2 years ago

Great point - an analogy comes to mind: MSFT (and Adobe) were totally okay with (and even encouraged) students pirating Windows/Photoshop etc in non-Western countries in the hopes they grow up and carry that knowledge in a future legal venture.

They were right.

This is the hardware equivalent of that.

Only until CUDA is replaceable though: and who is gonna do that? Intel better carry through their promises in this regard.

01100011• 2 years ago

Nah. Besides, I want them to continue to diversify in case there ever is an AI winter. If that happens, at least I'll get an updated Shield TV or something.

MangoCoffee3• 2 years ago

Isn't Nvidia's AI chip is based on their own GPU? Let's say the current AI trend goes away. It's good to have something to fall back on, and why would you cut the consumer side off? It's all based on the same architecture. It's not like it's going to cost or lose them money.

0xcde4c3db• 2 years ago

At this point, I suspect that they mostly want to be in the consumer market to attempt to keep a lid on VRAM density and throughput in that more cost-sensitive space. It's ridiculous that the RTX "4060" has 8 GB on a 128-bit bus vs. 3060's 12 GB on a 192-bit bus (both GDDR6; i.e. they didn't make up the difference with improvements in per-pin transfer rate).

theGnuMe5• 2 years ago

The consumer cards are just nerfed enterprise ones anyway.

AnotherGoodName5• 2 years ago

This stock is a great example of invest in stocks where you have strong knowledge.

I saw pallets of h100s shipping that were worth 100s of millions each pallet (each card is $40k and you can fit a lot on a pallet) as someone working for a company buying these and knowing that many other companies were doing the same (we have 12+ months of back orders with nvidia alone).

I invested last year at ~$250 when redditors we're posting that "Nvidia is the best shorting opportunity" without any of the knowledge of the market.

It looks like it's now going above $1000 and still going up.

Invest in things you know intimately folks. Also do the opposite of Reddit.

amelius• 2 years ago

But don't put all your eggs in one basket.

aldarisbm• 2 years ago

do you have an exit strategy?

AnotherGoodName5• 2 years ago

I started selling at the one year mark since capital gains is lower for stocks held longer than one year in the USA.

For a complete exit I would need to see a genuine competitor emerge. I have not seen that yet.

somethoughts2• 2 years ago

The million dollar question (or trillion dollar question I suppose) is for the upcoming quarters - will there be pallets of h100s waiting shipment, 2x pallets of h100s or 10x pallets of h100s... or have all the pallets are shipped for the time being.

Has demand saturated while downstream AI engineers tinker on actually profitable use cases or is it going to keep growing exponentially.

Probably most stock price models assume at minimum linear growth for the next 5-10 years. But if the future reality is that it nearly plateauing and will likely drop off...

zooq_ai4• 2 years ago

The answer is we are in the Pentium II 33 MHz stage of AI chips.

So, plan accordingly into what the future demand may look like.

georgeburdell3• 2 years ago

Is that not insider trading? I had opportunities to buy stock in companies that I knew my employer was about to do big business with, and could have profited handsomely, but was advised that it was at the very least against corporate guidelines

AlotOfReading• 2 years ago

They're not talking about their employer's actions moving the stock price, they're talking about the basic industry knowledge that everyone else is doing the same thing. I (probably) don't work at the same company and I had access to exactly the same information.

bombcar• 2 years ago

Almost certainly not, insider trading is for "knowledge that isn't out there". What you are describing is, because the "knowledge wasn't out there".

It's a fuzzy distinction and you're better safe than sorry. "We bought a bunch of cards" vs "we're going to buy a bunch of cards" type thing.

darth_avocado3• 2 years ago

If you work for NVIDIA, it is insider trading. If you saw the pallets in a truck at a gas station, it’s not. In the wild, it’s no different from Wall Street making trades based on strip club attendance or by flying drones near Tesla factories.

acchow4• 2 years ago

The real questions: how much of this is already priced in? Will this trend continue in the future?

ipsento606• 2 years ago

I know nothing about stocks. But if a similar situation were to happen again, how can you tell whether or not the surge in demand is already "priced in"?

Simply knowing that demand for a product has increased - even increased massively - surely can't tell you that the stock of the company that makes that product is going to increase in value, without also knowing whether or not that increase in demand is already reflected in the current price of the stock

it_citizen• 2 years ago

Exactly. And for one thing you know, there are 100s you don't know about the company.

Luck and survivor bias.

foota5• 2 years ago

The easy answer here would be to look at analyst estimates. If you notice nvidia selling 20 billion in H100s and the consensus revenue is 10 billion, then it's probably not priced in.

gizmo2• 2 years ago

As a rule of thumb it is never priced in when a company suddenly has tremendous acceleration in revenue and profit growth. Wall Street is good at forecasting businesses with a stable growth trajectory. Wall Street is way too conservative at inflection points because it’s too embarrassing to be wrong (in either direction).

Salgat2• 2 years ago

The only answer anyone can give you with total truth is that there is no way to know for sure (without having very secretive insider knowledge, such as being a CEO who is about to make a big deal). There's a reason why managed funds in the long term don't outperform index funds.

UncleMeat3• 2 years ago

On the other hand, my uncle lost a fortune investing in a wireless networking company in the 00s. He has worked an entire career in networking and has contributed to bleeding edge systems in the area. This company had excellent tech, but ultimately didn't succeed. A lifetime of savings kaput.

nvidia's p/e is also insanely high. "Wow they sure sell a shitload of product" isn't necessarily enough to justify the price. There are highly profitable companies that nevertheless see their stock price turn around.

anon2912• 2 years ago

The vast majority of financial issues would be prevented simply by following Buffett's advice to not lose money.

It's tongue in cheek, but he's correct. Suppose you have a great idea for investing. It doesn't matter how good it is... don't put your life savings into it.

If you do this you will make money. Investing is mostly about not losing money.

tharmas• 2 years ago

True. But another piece of knowledge about Nvidia is its competitors are waaaaaaaaay behind. They stand peerless.

Another piece of information is that CUDA software was provide free or cheaply to Universities doing LLM research I think. And the software is easy to use.

deadbabe4• 2 years ago

I don’t get the whole P/E thing.

Do people basically say we shouldn’t bother buying anything with a crazy P/E more than 20?

Despite the fact that these high P/E companies are now making people lots of money? Wtf?

floatinglotus5• 2 years ago

Insanely high PE? On earnings day? Isn’t today the day that it adjusts for this new amount? I still don’t find the forward PE to be that bad for the best tech company in the world right now.

burningChrome• 2 years ago

> There are highly profitable companies that nevertheless see their stock price turn around.

This happened with a local sports drink maker. It was branded for kids, more healthy, less sugar then Gatorade and energy drinks. Company took off, went public, stock went through the roof for about two years.

Blue skies, everything coming up roses, lots of articles in the local business mags and websites.

Then their supply chain dried up - a precursor to the pandemic and the founder even said in a startup presentation they were the canary in the coal mine and one of the first businesses in the state to suddenly have their product, packaging, and materials all just evaporate in a matter of weeks. Suddenly they couldn't get product into stores, stores eventually pulled their placement and within three months they were bleeding money horrendously while scrambling to find replacements. Something they were already working on, but soon enough every supplier they'd call had the same answer, they too had no means to ship stuff out and they too were dead in the water.

Then two months later the pandemic hit in full force and it was the death knell for the company. Delisted, and bankrupted, they closed up shop about 3 years after being a "can't lose" stock and company.

My family have all invested heavily in Nvidia and they're making good gains now, but I'm seeing the same thing you are - this can go bust very fast if Nvidia doesn't manage this really well.

solumunus• 2 years ago

The forward PE is not insanely high in today’s market, and this is the PE figure investors care about. It’s not “oh they sell a shit load of product” it’s “oh sell a shit load of product with ridiculous high margins and they’re growing rapidly YOY”. Will NVDA correct at some point? Of course.

nostrademons• 2 years ago

Remember Zoom trading at a P/E of 400+ during the pandemic? They've lost 85% of their value since then, despite growing their earnings about 3-4x in 4 years and becoming the namesake for an entire generation.

seydor• 2 years ago

also, never listen to survivorship bias

zooq_ai4• 2 years ago

Do the opposite of (popular) HN too

rvz2• 2 years ago

It really works.

Unlike the OP who used insider knowledge (for being a customer of Nvidia) I went against the HN crowd more than twice with buying META at $89 [0] and GOOG at an average of down to $93 [1]

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35620810

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34713073

throwbh• 2 years ago

Last year, I said my cousin who owns a Tesla car aandnd stocks believes Tesla has great potential that Elon Musk is a fraud and it's over valued.

Turns out who never owned a car and never invested in any stocks got it right.

TBH no one can predict the market.

mym1990• 2 years ago

Seeing pallets shipped out the door seems like a far cry from knowing something intimately. To know the business intimately would likely take knowledge of not only the AI industry but also understanding what customers are using these machines for, are the sales sustainable, etc...

Your anecdote is just survivorship bias and you are one of the survivors.

boguscoder• 2 years ago

To know something intimately would also often ring “insider trading” bell…

akira2501• 2 years ago

Invest in things you know intimately folks.

Was there really anything "intimate" about the knowledge you possessed? You were on the other side of a large market with apparent high demand and a supply chain that can most easily be described as "extremely monopolized."

when redditors we're posting that "Nvidia is the best shorting opportunity" without any of the knowledge of the market.

It looks to me like it was done with real knowledge of the overall market outside of single pallet moves and understanding of the risky position Nvidia put themselves into to capitalize on this. The bet either paid off completely or it severely tanked the company while crippling their consumer product division.

Nvidia took a top heavy position and bet the farm that TSMC could and would keep up with their demand. Was that the bet you understood yourself to be taking when investing in them?

AnotherGoodName5• 2 years ago

The 40k h100s have ballpark comparable transistor counts to their 1k gaming gpus. I didn't see concerns with production. The gains came from the massive margin increase.

They never needed to massively increase production from tsmc. They just needed to go from 5% to 75% margin on the cards they sell which is exactly what they did. https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/14zhy7f/com...

mysore• 2 years ago

redditors are fucking funny man.

i lost 50% on palantir cause i listened to wall street bets lmao

eastbound• 2 years ago

By definition, by the time someone has time to phrase it and broadcast it on a public forum, it’s already priced in.

And corollary, if just a thousand dollars can be made from influencing people on Reddit, then thinking how many people you can pay to create fake interest on Reddit. Now do the calculation for $10k and $100k.

supportengineer• 2 years ago

It sounds like you possessed and traded on material non-public information?

elevatedastalt• 2 years ago

Sounds like insider trading to me. The backorders your company has are material non-public information.

jbverschoor• 2 years ago

Yet it is not

NoboruWataya• 2 years ago

"My company bought their product" does not sound like material non-public information. It certainly doesn't sound material (and for this reason I also think it was sheer dumb luck that the investment paid off so handsomely, rather than intimate knowledge of the business).

kortilla9• 2 years ago

Not insider trading from SEC. You can absolutely use material non-public information your own company collects. The entire short selling industry is based on this.

It might be a violation of your company’s policy, but unless your company has been given explicit access to material non-public info of nvidia (e.g. you work for their accounting firm), there is no SEC risk here.

andrewmcwatters• 2 years ago

Total crap. Doesn't pass the smell test when 99% of people say this.

Would you buy a lemon for 2.336T? No? Probably not. What do you specifically value Nvidia at? Not the share price. Your own calculation. You, AnotherGoodName, are going to buy Nvidia outright. You're basically Elon Musk, and you think you can create better AI chips.

You don't know what that number is? Then you don't intimately know the value of the company.

Knowing tech intimately means nothing.

You know how much a banana costs, right? You probably wouldn't buy one for $10.

rvz2• 2 years ago

You don't know what that number is? Then you don't intimately know the value of the company.

Unless he's an insider. (Which he admitted)

Knowing tech intimately means nothing.

Exactly. Everyone's an expert in a bull market or when the stock runs without a down turn.

HN is an indicator to be bearish when euphoric posts like this are around. We'll start to see the short term dumping of $NVDA when we hit higher prices and the increased geo-political risk with China and Taiwan or a surprise declaration of war.

tintor• 2 years ago

How is this not insider trading?

PheonixPharts• 2 years ago

Curious if you've closed out your position yet? The tricky thing about the market is both entering and exiting at the correct time.

I have strong knowledge of this is space and don't invest in it exactly for that reason. LLMs are great, but the hype is greater, and I personally don't want to have my income and my investments correlated.

NVIDIA may be selling a lot, but their P/E ratio is nearly 80, so that price isn't fundamentals alone. All we need is this ages equivalent to "perceptrons can't XOR" and there will be a fast correction.

This could go on a long time and I wouldn't be surprised if NVIDIA doubled over the next few years. After all crypto is still doing well despite everyone more or less agreeing it's a scam. I can also imagine world were something is revealed in a few months and everyone flees from "AI".

The only thing I know about the stock market is arbitrage theory still holds, and the future value of any stock tends to be it's current price + risk free rate over time.

ls612• 2 years ago

Apple had a net income of ~$100B last year (and will in all likelihood have a similar amount this year) and a market cap of ~$3T. Nvidia is likely to have a net income of around $50-60B this year and has a market cap of around $2.4T.

It doesn't take that much growth being priced in for the stock to suddenly seem reasonably priced.

solidasparagus• 2 years ago

I saw NVIDIA as the next big thing due to AI 6 years ago back when their stock price was dictated by gaming and crypto. I was working for a hyperscaler and I was confident they were undervalued, along with Microsoft and AMD. And then I sold all 3 during COVID because I realized the exact problem you are saying - I had no idea when to sell and ultimately I was happy with my gains. Whoops I guess.

Now all serious investing money just goes into index funds and I don't have to worry.

lamontcg• 2 years ago

Yeah buying NVDA right _now_ could be the equivalent of buying TSLA at $400.

Since literally everyone and their dog now knows AI is the next big thing and NVDA is selling all the shovels to the miners, the contrarian in me (don't believe reddit OR HN) suggests its a good time to stay away.

There should be growth stocks buried in the Russell 5000 somewhere that would be much better bets at this point.

hiddencost• 2 years ago

Invest in index funds and stay away from people who give you investing advice. They usually only tell about the times they got lucky.

throwaway20372• 2 years ago

I agree. The OP is scary. Always run away when Internet stranger tells you about their stock market success. It is the same as a cab driver telling you about DotCom stocks in the late 1990s!

bradfox22• 2 years ago

I work at the intersection of power and AI. Buy utility stock. The bottleneck for AI expansion will not be installed GPUs, but the electricity they need to run. We are in an energy crisis and not many realize it yet. Virgina, Texas, Arizona and soon to be Ohio and Georgia are out of generation capacity and the data centers are like locusts.

soferio• 2 years ago

This is very interesting to read. I am in Australia and quite interested in this investment thesis although I’m not an investment professional. What are the best things to read about the demand Supply mismatch?

mjthrowaway1• 2 years ago

Been on this thesis for the last few months. Any companies you think are interesting or have potential to grow during the energy crisis? Looking for more prospects to evaluate.

shostack2• 2 years ago

I'll do it one better. As a gamer when I was younger, I knew they were the future. I asked for shares for my bday at the time and got them at least at $22.88 a share as that's as far back as my records go.

crtified• 2 years ago

Nice one! :)

When I read that undeniably impressive anecdote, what really stands out is not the shares or the money - it's the incredible childhood you had, the smart and organised parents who raised you in a way that you'd even understand those notions at a young age, and be in a position to enable them.

The way I was raised, I could top my schoolmates academically no problem, but the concepts and methods for creating monetary wealth - beyond "I need to somehow scrape together enough to pay for the next week's needs" - weren't even part of my (or my family's) universe, until I gradually learned them by accretion from decades of my own adulthood.

digging2• 2 years ago

I knew they were the future

I think you made a good bet, but it's important to recognize it was a bet. Believing something is true, and then turning out to be correct, isn't the same as knowing something. The future is not knowable - it's only varying degrees of predictable.

skirmish2• 2 years ago

Hah, as a starving student I knew 3d gaming was the future, and thus scrounged $1.5k to invest into TDFX. Next, they sold all assets to NVDA and dissolved the company [1].

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20010405091710/http://www.3dfx.c...

austhrow743• 2 years ago

How did you know the $250 price didn't already account for the fact that Nvidia has at least a years worth of back orders to fill?

hi-v-rocknroll2• 2 years ago

Although not using real money, I went 90% in to IOMG in a high school virtual portfolio assignment when I was selling Zip drives as fast as they could be produced.

The problem then becomes getting out before the rest of the market and before the good times stop.

Like a party, perhaps one should sell while everyone is still having a good time.

unclad5968• 2 years ago

Demand could have plummeted for any reason and Nvidia would be sitting on hundred million dollar pallets.

The reality is that your gamble was just as much gambling as their gamble. You just happened to win.

jejeyyy774• 2 years ago

was it not fairly obvious that all the big software companies were going to ramp up on training AI models? the writing was on the wall, some people just didnt read it.

rasz• 2 years ago

The point is those $44K cards have $500-1000 BOM.

jejeyyy774• 2 years ago

so many folks here have industry knowledge that is as valuable as insider knowledge yet they don't have fortitude to act on it. Instead, they dismiss their own intuition and listen to reddit/social hivemind.

Salgat2• 2 years ago

The market is too fickle to rely on your own experience and knowledge. Remember, there's plenty of experts in the tech industry whose sole job is to trade tech stocks, this information is baked into the market. It's far more likely that you were lucky, rather than had some super special inside knowledge compared to others. The only (semi)reliable stock is an index.

powerbroker• 2 years ago

It is possible to do well, even with insufficient information. Look at jet aircraft that are routinely landed without the ability to see the runway -- long before GPS was available. This is called flying with instrument flight rules.

Everyone only has a fraction of all the information. And you have to be satisfied with big returns in which you wonder, "how much of that was luck?" And, the occasional big losers. I can say I don't have 'the formula', but I'm returning 15% for over 20 years... knowing there is a ton I don't know. Which is something you find out when you are a patent attorney, and innovations come out of nowhere while MOST 'innovations' also lead nowhere.

Just. Have to be. OK. With. Not knowing.

breadwinner• 2 years ago

Invest in things you know

Exactly. I invested in NVDA when it was $21.85, after I saw a demo of Deep Learning for the first time. This was long before LLMs and generative AI. I was blown away by how you can upload any random image and it would tell you what is in the image. Then I learned about NVDA and CUDA and how DNNs leverage them and decided it would be a good investment.

sushid• 2 years ago

Honestly, this post reeks of a barber giving stock advice to me.

kevstev• 2 years ago

I agree here. Bought some well over a decade ago because of their dominance in gpus. Bought some more around 2017 after my company wanted to get access to some gpus on AWS and we couldnt because AWS couldn't get their hands on enough- and the crypto boom was driving demand. Bought some more again about a year ago when I saw companies large and small on the ai train- is not just openai and Goog/fb/apple.

Even if the stock falls 3/4 I've had an incredible return and I just don't see the ai hype dying down soon, though im always trying to feel out that inflection point. I'm not super stoked about the ability of AI to really be monetized that well in its current form, but I'm happy to be invested in the picks and shovel business behind it.

zeroonetwothree• 2 years ago

I always invest based on a d20. Back when BTC was $1 I rolled one and got a natural 20 so I knew it would take off. I put my life savings into it and cashed out last year. Now I own three yachts and two islands and have the whole day free to troll on HN.

sinatra• 2 years ago

And the d20 rolled a 12 when you checked it for duration to hold? Man, lucky you! Give the dice a kiss!

7speter• 2 years ago

Redditors mostly only look at all technology through the eyes of gaming and nothing else. So because Nvidia cards were relatively cheap compared to the last few years because of cryptomining, of course Nvidia is in dire straits and will be left to the mercy of the almighty gamer.

The en-vogue group think on Reddit now is to show total disdain towards all AI, and insist that the 'AI PC' is solely a marketing tactic for Intel, Dell and Microsoft to sell more computers, mostly because it really seems most people on reddit don't do any work to appreciate the benefits AI can provide to productive people.

gnicholas• 2 years ago

This can be good advice, except that it tends to create a correlation between one's portfolio (unless you're shorting) and one's profession. So if your industry tanks, you could find yourself laid off and with a slashed portfolio.

attentive• 2 years ago

That is great way to loose tons of money. Being in a winning trade doesn't make you genius. Price matters. Geo matters. Policy matters. Many other things matter.

lanza• 2 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias

goles• 2 years ago

Or people with strong knowledge you trust. There's a somewhat famous legend of a trade Peter Lynch did based, in some part, upon his wife commenting on buying pantyhose at the supermarket. I'll let you read for yourself -

"I had a great luck company called Hanes. They test marketed a product called L'Eggs in Boston and I think in Columbus, Ohio, maybe three or four markets. And Carolyn, ah, brought this product home and she was buying and she said, "It's great." And she almost got a black belt in shopping. She's a very good shopper. If we hadn't had these three kids, she now -- when Beth finally goes off to college, I think we'll be able to resume her training. But she's a very good shopper and she would buy these things. She said, "They're really great."

And I did a little bit of research. I found out the average woman goes to the supermarket or a drugstore once a week. And they go a woman's specialty store or department store once every six weeks. And all the good hosiery, all the good pantyhose is being sold in department stores. They were selling junk in the supermarkets. They were selling junk in the drugstores. So this company came up with a product. They rack-jobbed it, they had all the sizes, all the fits, a down they never advertised price. They just advertised "This fits. You'll enjoy it." And it was a huge success and it became my biggest position and I always worried somebody'd come out with a competitive product, and about a year-and-a-half they were on the market another large company called Kaiser-Roth came out with a product called No Nonsense.

They put it right next to L'eggs in the supermarket, right next to L'eggs in the drugstore. I said, "Wow, I gotta figure this one out." So I remember buying -- I bought 48 different pairs at the supermarket, colors, shapes, and sizes. They must have wondered what kind of house I had at home when I got to the register. They just let me buy it. So I brought it into the office. I gave it to everybody. I said, "Try this out and come back and see what's the story with No Nonsense." And people came back to me in a couple weeks and said, "It's not as good." That's what fundamental research is. So I held onto Hanes and it was a huge stock and it was bought out by Consolidated Foods, which is now called Sara Lee, and it's been a great division of that company. It might have been a thirty bagger instead of a ten bagger, if it hadn't been bought out."

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/betting/pros/...

He talks about this more in One Up On Wallstreet about how an observant retail investor who goes to the supermarket or department store or fast food chains, or in your example a loading dock, every week is actually more in touch with what's happening in some businesses than some institutional investors.

The service here has really gone down over the years, product sucks everyone is switching to the competitor, friends can't stop raving about this new product.

I don't know how well that advice holds up in today's market but it's a fun idea, maybe just for the play-money account.

aiauthoritydev• 2 years ago

While I appreciate your inputs for those reading this please do not take this as good investment advice. A lot of things need to align for you to benefit from even the specialized knowledge here.

guenthert• 2 years ago

That seems like fine advise, if the market were rational.

I'd think, it's as important to understand people than it is to understand businesses when it comes to the stock market.

Said that, don't take financial advise from me, I haven't had much luck with my bets.

dcl• 2 years ago

I had heavily pondered investing in Nvidia in 2014 when I thought deep learning was really becoming interesting (90+% of my other investments are in index funds) in some sense, I had some expert knowledge of the field. However, I thought that margins would compress because AMD, Intel, and perhaps other firms would get involved... Boy was I wrong.

RiverStone• 2 years ago

This is well intentioned but bad advice.

Studies in behavioral finance are clear that ordinary investors should not invest in individual stocks over indexes. There are too many pitfalls.

Even hedge funds with teams of sector analysts rarely beat the market consistently.

allenrb• 2 years ago

We all understand that this cannot and will not continue, right? One of two things happens:

1. The AI boom goes bust. Nvidia sales and/or margins crater. The stock craters with it.

2. The AI boom is the real deal. Companies aren’t stupid and won’t keep paying Nvidia these prices forever. Pretty soon hardware and software architectures are standardized enough that anyone who can get onboard with TSMC, Samsung, or Intel can churn out hardware optimized for the right few functions and sell for a faction of the price. Nvidia can still be an innovator but they won’t be able to sell “bread and butter” products at these prices. Sales and/or margins crater, as does the stock.

stocknoob• 2 years ago

You know, you can make money with predictions if you have the conviction.

Detrytus4• 2 years ago

Not GP, but that's exactly what I'm doing. Sold NVIDIA recently at 869 USD (having bought it at 453 USD), and invested profits in Intel :) We'll see how that plays out in a year or two.

AlexandrB2• 2 years ago

I also think NVDA is overvalued, but timing is everything. They could stay overvalued for years before coming back down. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" and all that.

abduhl2• 2 years ago

I noticed that your post failed to include important details such as when option 1 or 2 will happen or how option 2 will be implemented. I don’t disagree, I’m just pointing out that your post is worse than useless blathering, it’s useless noise.

nabla913• 2 years ago

3. To justify current valuation revenues must continue to grow next 4-5 years until plateauing while Nvidia profit margin gradually declines to something normal, like 30%.

High growth is fragile. The value of Nvidia has dropped 50% multiple times in the past. Recression, or temporary oversupply, anything can mess it.

bryanlarsen• 2 years ago

The hard question is "when". I agree with you, yet I'd rather be long NVDA than short NVDA. (I am neither).

UncleMeat3• 2 years ago

A significant question is what "pretty soon" means. Nvidia also owns other parts of the stack (cuda) that makes them more difficult to replace.

mewpmewp22• 2 years ago

There is also third option - which I'm not saying I think happens, but if AGI was to happen then there is possibility of just few winners taking it all. Whoever gets there first would simply snowball away. It would be end game of capitalism.

MyFedora• 2 years ago

NVIDIA got lucky that modern computer architecture happens to favor GPUs for AI workloads. They won't be able to milk it for long, but they for sure have the money to pivot. Question is whether they will put that money to good use or not.

jejeyyy774• 2 years ago

lol, so short the stock...?

noobermin• 2 years ago

This thought is strange. This very moment is the moment of success. Perhaps it can grow more, who knows, but a maximum declines on either side, that's literally what a maximum is.

Saying it won't last should not be profound because that fact should be self-evident. The only reason it becomes profound is because a lot of people are just that stupid.

hatenberg• 2 years ago

What is happening is that every government on the planet is forced to procure local DC compute capacity to protect national sovereignty. The US ensured this with SWIFT deplatforming Russia.

And there is nobody else they can buy from on their timelines.

Jlagreen5• 2 years ago

You mean the same companies who are paying AWS, Azure and GCP a lot of money for decades despite there being cheap alternatives? Or which customers do you talk about?

My company uses Azure for years. I don't expect them to change that anytime soon, I mean we're a SAP customer for 40+ years and SAP is Germany's No. 1 price gouging company. We use MS products for decades as well despite them being more expensive every year and I still do more or less the same in Excel today as I did years ago.

I think you have a misunderstanding of how B2C works and especially when we talk about enterprise level SW solutions. No CEO in their mind is switching business operation SW if a competitor is on sale lol.

PaulKeeble• 2 years ago

This likely has more staying power than the crypto boom that fueled AMD's GPUs to enormous heights but when that crashed AMD ended up holding a lot of stock it couldn't shift and had an enormous right down of inventory. This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task or a realisation that the issues with AI just can't be solved and a cooling off of the market hype.

What I fear is that Nvidia sees no value in its basic graphics cards any more or wants a lot more for them because they could sell that wafer space to businesses for more $. Its been getting crazy expensive for decent GPUs for a while for gaming and I can't see the next generation doing anything but being much higher due to the AI boom.

3abiton• 2 years ago

This AI bubble could be burst by a better cheaper product more dedicated to the task

True, but currently, no one can match the offering of NVidia, they are the sole pioneer in this market. AMD is yet to show any viable option (both on the HW and SW layers).

latchkey9• 2 years ago

MI300x is a great start. Agreed that the software needs work.

parineum• 2 years ago

AI is still fueled by hope.

The actually applications of it (they do exist and they are valuable) pale in comparison and value to what it's valuation is based on, it's future promise.

When the people who say things like "AI is going to replace all accountants!" stop speaking the the future tense, it's value will be justified. For now, it's OpenAI spending billions developing a product they hope will make trillions and Nvidia is happy to sit in the background selling billions of dollars in compute.

AlexandrB2• 2 years ago

In many cases there's no obvious way to collect additional revenue for AI features either. For example, Google now has an AI box in their search but will this translate to more ad revenue?

dmvdoug2• 2 years ago

Yes, and the cognitive dissonance induced by comparing the actual applications of it to what the evangelists and marketeers say about it is extraordinary. The rhetorical gap widens apace.

dkrich• 2 years ago

Right now I’d say it’s 5% functionality and 95% marketing hype for companies that want investors to believe they are innovative. For the most part these companies are just incorporating chat bots and inaccurate abstraction layers into their platforms and calling it the greatest transformation in history. What feels off to me is that most of these people don’t have great track record with these types of predictions and are historically trend followers.

wslh• 2 years ago

I remember a recent HN thread where it was discussed if Nvidia has really an unique edge in AI because there are other approaches (NPUs, TPUs) to generating, and inferring models beyond the power on these GPUs. I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming) where in AI other approaches arised and are arising.

talldayo• 2 years ago

I think for the general public it sounds like what Nvidia has is unique (like in gaming)

Gaming is where Nvidia is least unique; they run standards-compliant software by supporting well-documented APIs in-hardware (eg. DX12/Vulkan). AMD does the same thing, and even Intel is able to scale up a simple dGPU setup.

The hard part is software. Nvidia "won" because they spent 10 years developing CUDA when everyone else was smothering their OpenCL implementations in the crib. Now it doesn't matter what Nvidia ships, as long as it's fast and supports CUDA. The Blackwell/Grace systems seem like a good example of this.

TPUs have a slim shot at disrupting things; NPUs are pretty much dead-on-arrival. TPUs are hopeful because they genuinely represent a yak-shaving project that can ignore CUDA semantics to simply infer or train faster. It will be hard to make TPUs as efficient as TSMC-manufactured Nvidia chips, but there's room for disruption given how expensive a single GH200 is.

NPUs... I hate to be a pessimist, but they don't have a very bright feature. In the best of scenarios, an NPU is redundant silicon idling or in-usage to alleviate pressure from the more-powerful main GPU and CPU. Seems great on paper; until you start scaling to LLM/Stable Diffusion size. Now you're bottlenecked by such a low-power component, and have to switch to the GPU which was more powerful all-along. In the worst of cases, the NPU is an expensive waste of space on your SOC. Unlike TPU pods, I think there is no hope for NPUs to compete directly with CUDA. If anything it increases the demand for high-performance training compute, which Nvidia monopolizes.

ein0p6• 2 years ago

What’s baffling about all this is both AMD and Intel have competing offerings and those offerings see next to no traction in spite of being much more attractive from the cost standpoint. I understand why they aren’t taking off on the training side: fragmentation is very counterproductive there. But why not deploy them in large quantities for inference at least? The effort of porting transformer based models is trivial for both vendors, and the performance is very competitive

Clubber• 2 years ago

CUDA is their API and is proprietary. It's very fast and it's a significant competitive advantage.

https://analyticsindiamag.com/is-cuda-nvidias-competitive-mo...

ein0p6• 2 years ago

It really doesn’t matter if you have cuda or not if you’re going to run inference at scale. As I said above (speaking from experience), porting models for inference is not a technically difficult problem. Indeed with both Intel Gaudi or AMD MI series of accelerators a lot of the popular architectures and their derivatives are supported either out of the box or with minimal tweaks.

joe_the_user• 2 years ago

I think the problem the other players have is they don't actually want to compete head-on with Nvidia.

AMD actually commissioned a drop-in CUDA emulator and we found out 'cause they stopped financing it and they open-sourced it as parts of the contract.

I would speculate that no one actually wants a "clone wars" situation since it would commodify the GPU and reduce everyone's profit rate.

acchow4• 2 years ago

The companies buying billions of dollars of Nvidia GPUs definitely do want to commodify the GPU

latchkey9• 2 years ago

AMD's only offering that matters, MI300x, is literally a couple months old. Give it time.

ein0p6• 2 years ago

MI250 is also quite potent. Certainly sufficient for a good chunk of inference use cases

StressedDev2• 2 years ago

The question is what is the performance per watt of AMD's and Intel's products. My guess is both have significantly worse performance per watt. Energy and cooling are huge data center expenses and paying less for a product which requires more energy and cool is not a good idea because it costs more.

ein0p6• 2 years ago

Nope. Not for LLM workloads at least. They’re competitive across the board.

declan_roberts• 2 years ago

As they say, during a gold rush sell shovels. NVIDIA has an excellent shovel.

However I do notice that big players (GOOG, Meta, etc), seem more concerned with power cost right now than they do per-unit video cards.

aurareturn2• 2 years ago

One of the best ways of saving on power is to buy ever more efficient chips. With each generation of chips, perf/watt increases.

JonChesterfield2• 2 years ago

The earnings call is wild. The pitch is essentially that AI is here right now and if you don't buy loads of Nvidia GPU immediately you'll be destroyed by other companies/countries that did buy it.

incognition• 2 years ago

Arms race is lucrative, even better than gold rush

peppermint_gum• 2 years ago

This could have been AMD, but they choose to sabotage themselves with half-baked APIs that don't even support all of their GPUs. Hell, ROCm didn't even support Windows until recently.

Frankly, it's shocking how bad they are at it.

timy2shoes• 2 years ago

Everyone talks about the chips, but Nvidia's true competitive advantage is CUDA. Only recently has PyTorch added AMD support, and benchmarks I've seen have shown that AMD has a lot of work to catch up.

latchkey9• 2 years ago

Only recently has PyTorch added AMD support

April 15th, 2023. It has been more than a year now.

https://pytorch.org/blog/experience-power-pytorch-2.0/

JonChesterfield2• 2 years ago

Windows is horrendously annoying to implement anything on and completely absent from the HPC field. Maybe people are trying to do AI training things on it now but that also seems likely to be Linux boxes.

Shipping rocm releases that don't run on a bunch of their GPUs is just an absurd choice, there's no way to defend that one.

Zenst• 2 years ago

2 hours into the post, nobody else noticed it is dated 2025, so what am I missing?

AnotherGoodName5• 2 years ago

We're literally in fiscal year 2025. The report also calls it fiscal year 2025.

Fiscal years are about when you'll pay tax. This is Q1 of four quarters to be reported before Nvidia pays tax in 2025.

jsnell3• 2 years ago

This is incorrect. Fiscal years have nothing to do with when you pay tax. They're pretty much totally arbitrary, with different companies using different values.

To demonstrate: The earnings Microsoft reported for this same quarter (calendar Q1 2024) a month ago were reported as their Q3 2024 fiscal year results. Apple's were fiscal Q2 2024. Google's were fiscal Q1 2024.

thiagoperes• 2 years ago

It's a fiscal year convention. Companies use the following year to reference the fiscal year because the fiscal year is named after the year in which it ends.

deathanatos• 2 years ago

Corporate fiscal calendars are, IMO, best thought of as essentially made up. They start and end at arbitrary-ish¹ points in the year, and thus their numbering does not always match the "calendar year" (the one you're normally familiar with).

For example, there are easy to read sites with explanations like https://www.thebalancemoney.com/how-do-i-determine-my-compan..., and less easy to read things like Form 1128.

The fiscal year is a pretty standard finance concept, so anything in that area isn't going to bother with an explainer; you're just expected to know.

From the outside looking in, it just seems nuts. If I ever found a company I'm going to do my best to get my fiscal year to == calendar, if I can. It also annoys me when companies needlessly use it internally. Mine does, I have no idea when the quarter ends anymore.

¹ish. I think the IRS has a few rules.

hi-v-rocknroll2• 2 years ago

And they only have ~18 months of absurd profits from just a couple of customers (Meta and Microsoft/OpenAI) who are likely to realize they don't have the revenue to support 10 figure CapEx and will chose to develop their own chips, cutting NVIDIA out of the loop.

I foresee Nvidia stock playing out like a softer version of iomega that will still have consumer demand, but not as much temporary demand from the megacorps.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/day-market-history-iomegas-in...

theGnuMe5• 2 years ago

The race to build their own chips vs buy nvidia… I imagine they do both. Any nvidia they leave lying around the others will buy and start training models with. Arms race basically and you don’t want your enemy buying the alternative.

zamadatix2• 2 years ago

Nvidia, being the 3rd most valued company in the world right now, couldn't get bought by any of its customers until after it's no longer relevant to leading the AI race and has been devalued accordingly.

sumedh• 2 years ago

Isnt one of the reason to buy all this compute is to attract skilled AI people who want all that compute power, makes it easier to hire them.

Jlagreen5• 2 years ago

What about the 1000s of companies outside of Big Tech who are interested in AI. Where will they get their AI compute?

I tell you where, from Nvidia direclty or from a CSP renting it to them. Oh wait, aren't MS, Amazon and Google such CSP? Oh right! Could that mean that Nvidia sells GPUs to CSPs which then rent it to customers or rather companies which aren't CSPs? So how do these other companies use Nvidia's GPUs from renting? Let me guess, maybe Nvidia Enterprise AI SW suite? Bingo!

And how does Nvidia benefit from these other companies? Or right, Nvidia gets $4500 license fee per GPU if a company uses Nvidia Enterprise AI solution. Oh wait, does that mean that Nvidia might be into building a SaaS business? Correct, but psst... nobody listens to Nvidia management so only few have a clue. Clearly, Nvidia is earning money only from HW to use it for hobbies like Clara, Isaac, DriveSim, Omniverse and many more... GTC was way more about SW development than HW but that was just show to keep people entertained. Nvidia also is a nice HW company employing more SW engineers than HW engineers so that SW engineers also get a chance for work.

seatac76• 2 years ago

A 10:1 split, this could run to a $1000 again in a couple years.

yq2325• 2 years ago

Leader in the next generation!

shreezus• 2 years ago

Here's the thing - compute/semiconductors will be the substrate for superintelligence.

If you believe AGI/ASI is imminent, the demand curve for compute will far exceed supply for the foreseeable future.

(Disclaimer: I am heavily biased, as a longtime investor in Nvidia + semiconductors, since 2014+).

crakenzak• 2 years ago

"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"

n_ary• 2 years ago

I am immensely surprised by all the speculation in comments. NVIDIA simply hit a lucky streak. They rode out the crypto fad from last decade and happens to fall on the AI fad of this decade. If it continues, competitors will eventually catch up as regardless of how slow the behemoths are currently, if something transforms into a stable gold mine instead of random lucky streak, other competitors will start offering cheaper and competitive shovels. Just my 2c, you have the right to disagree :)

StressedDev2• 2 years ago

NVIDIA is the best GPU manufacturer in the world. They have been an excellent company for decades and have produced most of the best (in terms of performance or performance per watt) GPUs. They started spreading out from graphics when they realized GPUs could be used for massively parallel floating-point or integer computations. They have been producing data center GPUs for years. NVIDIA's financial performance is not luck. It came from hard work and from producing the best products.

oracle65• 2 years ago

Are we already in 2025 ? Same typo on their website. I guess the finance team didn’t use AI :)

billconan• 2 years ago

not a typo. it's the fiscal year 2025.

https://www.xero.com/us/glossary/fiscal-year/

armaautomotive• 2 years ago

What year is it? I'm surprised they haven't fixed the title.

ngcc_hk• 2 years ago

2025? Second 2025 posting recently here. Is HN has Time Traveller these days and someone have successfully hacked a Time Machine ?

Nvidia announces financial results for first quarter fiscal 2025

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