X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/593/20251111-x5-1-solar-flare-g4-geomagnetic-storm-watch.html

by sva_ • 8 months ago

400 108 8 months ago

spaceweatherlive.com

abujazar2• 8 months ago

Also: 100 % cloud cover in basically all of Northern Europe :/ Iceland is probably the place to be for the aurora show!

onion2k2• 8 months ago

Yep. It's raining pretty hard here in the North East of the UK. Not much point in going to look.

SoftTalker• 8 months ago

"...geomagnetic storm watch for tomorrow as the cloud could impact our planet as early as 16 UTC on 12 November"

dom96• 8 months ago

Yep, clouds... clouds everywhere https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/maps-and-charts/cloud-cover...

thebruce87m• 8 months ago

Note to non-UK readers:

Most of the time when someone says they are in the “North East of the UK” it’s not some Scotsman up in Shetland it is an English person who is currently in the North East of England.

The North East of England is in the middle part of the UK mainland.

kilroy123• 8 months ago

It's raining off and on in London as well.

sva_4• 8 months ago

In northern Germany, it seems like clouds will clear up tomorrow night, when the CME arrives, according to meteoblue? I can only hope.

DonaldFisk• 8 months ago

Scotland, 56 degrees north - I was able to see the aurora through occasional gaps in fast moving clouds around 0400hrs. Red, easily visible to the naked eye.

Arainach• 8 months ago

could impact our planet as early as 16 UTC on 12 November

Is that 16:00 or 00:16?

aaronmdjones• 8 months ago

16 hundred hours; 16:00. Since revised down to midday (12 UTC).

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/styles/pad_sid...

deskamess• 8 months ago

Bad timing for North America Eastern TZ - day break here. Pacific/Mountain TZ should be fine.

aftbit• 8 months ago

ISO timestamps are the one true way:

2025-11-12T16Z

brcmthrowaway• 8 months ago

Could this destroy the ISS?

natebc• 8 months ago

abujazar2• 8 months ago

No, they'll just get a spectacular view of the aurora.

fghorow• 8 months ago

[1] is a real-time forecast for the auroral oval. See if you are in with a chance. Clear Skies!

[1] https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral...

LeoPanthera• 8 months ago

They seem to be scraping the forecast images from https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-exper...

xattt• 8 months ago

Atlantic Canada is sorely underrepresented on the city charts, even though many locations would have amazing viewing.

elpakal• 8 months ago

Hmm. It says my city has 0% chance of visibility but I'm looking at it outside right now.

snitzr• 8 months ago

Are we doomed by the next Carrington Event?

hrnnnnnn• 8 months ago

Probably not.

https://existentialcrunch.substack.com/p/space-weather-and-c...

LargoLasskhyfv• 8 months ago

That one was weak. Try https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miyake_event instead.

AngryData• 8 months ago

Possibly, but not from this event, it isn't nearly that strong.

rpcope1• 8 months ago

You can see the real time magnetic field change when it hits: https://dasi.barlow.cpi.com/dashboard

perihelions• 8 months ago

This seems to be a distinct but similar magnetometer network, with global reach,

https://intermagnet.org/data_download.html

Example data, (Neumayer Station III in Antarctica)

https://imag-data.bgs.ac.uk/GIN_V1/GINForms2?observatoryIaga...

I wonder why there doesn't seem to be any website with a map view of all of the planet's magnetometers. Looks like there should be more than enough data to make an interesting livemap.

Here's a list of the sites,

https://www.gfz.de/en/section/geomagnetism/infrastructure/ge...

tiagod• 8 months ago

I wonder why there doesn't seem to be any website with a map view of all of the planet's magnetometers. Looks like there should be more than enough data to make an interesting livemap.

Another project for the queue...

superkuh• 8 months ago

We won't know any actionable detail till about 1 hour before it arrives at Earth. That's when interplanetary coronal mass ejections actually have their magnetic field orientation and intensity measured by ACE and other satellites far out at the L1 lagrange point: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour...

If you see the red line on this plot^, the interplanetary magnetic field, be more than -10 nanotesla for about 4 hours then there's a good chance of lower than normal latitude aurora. Negative means the magnetic field is pointing downwards out of the ecliptic plane of the solar system and this is the most energetically favorable orientation for reconnecting CME magnetic field lines with Earth's magnetic field lines and letting solar particles/energy in.

It can be 20nT positive (upwards) magnetic field with intense density and high velocity but still be a non-event aurora-wise just because energy is delivered to the Earth's ring currents at 10x slower rate than if it's pointing downwards.

None of the WSA-ENLIL or related predictive models take into consideration the magnetic field orientation of iCMEs because it's really hard to know from remote observations. They can be thought of as warnings to pay attention to the ACE L1 measurements.

Havoc• 8 months ago

Nice comment. Thanks for explaining

simonebrunozzi• 8 months ago

Thanks a lot for sharing this. Yours is a truly outstanding comment. I am so glad that sometimes here on HN I find little gems like this one.

Have you considered writing something longer on the subject? Or have you done so, and would you mind sharing links?

meindnoch• 8 months ago

Carrington event 2.0?

sva_4• 8 months ago

Definitely no.

codr72• 8 months ago

Not yet, there's a whole bunch of wildcards in the air right now.

nreilly• 8 months ago

This has a pretty good view of the aurora now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfF9bhaBuvw

sva_4• 8 months ago

That's really cool! But that's actually one of the previous CMEs, not this one. Very nice to see nonetheless.

Casteil• 8 months ago

Nice. Looks like it was peaking around 21:00 - 22:00 local time, got pretty intense for a while.

aussieguy12342• 8 months ago

looks like i'll be going out tonight

sigmaprimus• 8 months ago

what effect if any will the solar flare emissions have on the new ish constellation style satellite networks? and or vice versa? EG would a shielded group or constellation provide a pathway for charge particles around the Earth?

drmpeg3• 8 months ago

A severe geomagnetic storm is starting now (November 12 0000Z). But it's from the previous X-flares (X1.7 and X1.2), not the X5.1 flare.

mr_toad3• 8 months ago

From what I’ve read that could be bad, because prior flares can clear a path (through the solar wind) for later flares to move faster and hit harder.

codr72• 8 months ago

Right, this three punch combo couldn't have been planned better.

hnburnsy• 8 months ago

G4 reached...

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-severe-storm-levels-reache...

G4 (Severe) Storm Levels Reached! published: Wednesday, November 12, 2025 01:40 UTC G4 (Severe) storm levels reached on 12 November at 0120 UTC (8:20pm EST)! Geomagnetic storm conditions are anticipated to continue into the night. Stay informed at spaceweather.gov for the latest. The included aurora images are of the aurora shining over northeastern Colorado.

sva_4• 8 months ago

Be aware that this is from a previous X flare, afaik

gpm2• 8 months ago

Reports of seeing the aurora right now across North America down to the US/Mexico border. If that describes you and you're not under cloud cover (like I unfortunately am) I'd recommend going outside and finding somewhere dark with a clear view north.

Cell phone cameras see it better than people for whatever reason, so looking at it through your phone is an option.

Request for "very low latitude" pictures from a researcher here: https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3m5...

jodacola• 8 months ago

Fully visible with naked eye in Kansas City. Beautiful magenta hues in the sky. My first time seeing an aurora in person.

alexgaribay• 8 months ago

I see it as well in southern KC. I've been to Alaska in the winter with hopes to the see the Northern Lights. Pretty awesome to see it this far south!

mr_toad3• 8 months ago

Billions of tonnes of matter ejected at millions of kph. It’s shame we can’t harness that energy.

mouse_• 8 months ago

it would have to be quite the harness.

gpm2• 8 months ago

Perhaps we should start with more local less violent events like hurricanes and volcanic eruptions.

cwillu• 8 months ago

The regular photons are a start

AlexErrant• 8 months ago

If you're in [redacted], was visible about 15m ago https://imgur.com/a/36cncec

Not so much now, but maybe it'll come back!

bobmcnamara• 8 months ago

Down in northern Missouri too

drewnick• 8 months ago

Upstate South Carolina as well

NooneAtAll3• 8 months ago

relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2233/

therobots927• 8 months ago

I saw this in the Denver area in Colorado, US an hour and a half ago. I looked up and couldn’t believe the sky was red. Took me a while to realize it was the aurora borealis. Very cool!

vvladymyrov• 8 months ago

15 min ago I saw it north from Denver - half of the sky was red.

HaZeust• 8 months ago

Checking in from Littleton - saw it as well! My friend all the way from Grand Junction CO posted photos too

TechDebtDevin• 8 months ago

Pics I took in Denver!

https://imgur.com/gallery/northern-lights-denver-zPF7PJC

JKCalhoun2• 8 months ago

Dad sent me a photo [1] from Alaska of the red light. He said they rarely get it "so far south" (he is in southern Alaska).

[1] (Not a great photo, but you get the idea.) https://imgur.com/a/TfkcbJQ

esseph• 8 months ago

On the Kenai Peninsula? Great spot if so!

JKCalhoun2• 8 months ago

Yep, Homer.

throw48753• 8 months ago

I know there are a lot of comments from people saying they’ve seen it, but as I understand it this solar flare won’t hit until 16h UTC, or about 12 hours from now, and there are two weaker flares hitting about now that are currently visible? Is that understanding correct?

throwawaymaths• 8 months ago

Yes, and it's in the article.

Digory• 8 months ago

So - even bigger tomorrow? Tonight was pretty amazing.

shashanoid• 8 months ago

cool super amazing

aussieguy12342• 8 months ago

G4 is happening now https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnin...

schainks• 8 months ago

I can currently photograph this on my mobile phone in seattle from my backyard, good times!

Animats3• 8 months ago

US power grid info:

PJM:

    Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 
    11.11.2025 19:25 (PJM times are Eastern Standard).

    PJM-RTO

A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 19:25 on 11.11.2025 through 04:00 on 11.12.2025 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater is in effect for this period.

This is only a warning. There are no listed actions being taken. When you see Geomagnetic Disturbance Action, not just Warning, there's a problem. That happened most recently on June 1, 2025. Extra people are probably on standby all night in case something happens.

CAISO: Nothing.

ERCOT: Nothing.

Hydro-Québec: Multiple snow-related outages near Montreal and some other locations.

Background info from the last time HN got wound up about this.[1]

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44152154

Animats3• 8 months ago

PJM warning is still in effect as of the next morning, but there are still no related actions.

Animats3• 8 months ago

PJM closed out the warning at 11.13.2025 04:00 EST. No emergency actions were required. Incident over.

tharkun__• 8 months ago

So then "Montreal and some other locations" probably had the best views of any densely populated areas to watch the Aurora: When power is out, light pollution is no longer a problem!

PeaceTed• 8 months ago

Down in Victoria, Australia. Looks like the clouds should clear just in time for night fall and a decent show. Very cool.

rhinoceraptor• 8 months ago

I'm disappointed I missed it, I had disabled my Aurora phone alert after it woke me up for a 1% chance of seeing it a few weeks ago. I saw a bit of light in SE Michigan at about 1:30 AM EST, but just a tinge of green.

AnimalMuppet• 8 months ago

It's not over - check back tonight.

beAbU• 8 months ago

I'm in Ireland and went out last night to try and find it, last year I got some spectacular photos from my bedroom window. Alas it only peaked as it was over the US so sadly I missed out.

Ireland is far enough north that we actually get the aurora somewhat regularly. We rarely have clear skies though, making it a true "planets align" thing to actually see it.

Balinares• 8 months ago

There were some beautiful ones overhead around 2am and I slept right through them. Ah well.

zombot• 8 months ago

Too bad, it's not about a wristwatch that displays geomagnetic storms.

gattr• 8 months ago

Shameless plug: active region (and sunspot group) 4274 has already produced several X-class solar flares, alas, I didn't manage to catch one during my short weekend imaging session. Though there was a nice prominence; 38-min time lapse (Earth to scale):

https://app.astrobin.com/u/GreatAttractor?i=9tkxay#gallery

PetitPrince• 8 months ago

The Swiss Weather Office official app has a crowdsourced photo gallery:

https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/services-et-publications/ap...

Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November: you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't keep the pictures forever).

dotancohen• 8 months ago

The curvature of the Earth can be deducted from those photos on the map! It is clear to see the aurora completely above the horizon in the Northern Swiss photos, and straddling the horizon in the photos from the south.

argiope• 8 months ago

This photo gallery also provides very nice pictures around Germany and the Alps: https://www.foto-webcam.eu/2025/11/12/0330

doodlebugging• 8 months ago

https://Spaceweather.com has a link to some photos taken in El Salvador at 13N Lat. Last night was a great show for sure.

I enjoyed it for about 5 hours out here west of DFW. I hope the actual X5.1 event due to arrive in the next 3-5 hours will persist into the evening so I get another show.

ofalkaed• 8 months ago

Aurora is going pretty strong here in northern Minnesota, filling most of the sky. A jet is going over way up there right now, they must be getting a hell of a show.

apawloski3• 8 months ago

Is there a way to connect the Alert/Warnings/Watches from SWPC to specific events? It seems like there are at least three different solar events and it's hard for me to understand if they've all passed or if we're expecting more.

drmpeg3• 8 months ago

The CME from the X5.1 flare has not arrived yet. Here are the websites I use:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...

https://www.spaceweather.com/

https://space.umd.edu/pm/

apawloski3• 8 months ago

That's what I'm most curious about -- how do you see that it hasn't arrived yet when you're looking at SWPC?

Here is the SWPC forecast [0]

Time_UTC,Nov_12,Nov_13,Nov_14

00-03UT,8.67 (G4),6.67 (G3),4.67 (G1)

03-06UT,8.33 (G4),6.33 (G2),4.00

06-09UT,7.00 (G3),6.00 (G2),3.33

09-12UT,7.00 (G3),4.67 (G1),3.67

12-15UT,6.00 (G2),4.00,3.33

15-18UT,5.67 (G2),3.33,3.00

18-21UT,7.67 (G4),4.33,3.00

21-00UT,6.00 (G2),4.67 (G1),3.33

So I guess 18-21UTC today it'll get around 7.7kP, but that's lower than what hit this morning, when I'd expect X5.1 to be larger? Is that how I should interpret this?

[0] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusia...

billnad• 8 months ago

I also use https://spaceweathernews.com/ Lots of data in there for us to see the sources and effects

scorpionnegro• 8 months ago

D Información de las representativas fórmulas para encuestar e secuestrar el circulo matemático q carcule la fuerza de velocidad es en el encontrar la física cuántica

Polizeiposaune• 8 months ago

The flare is delaying a rocket launch due to concerns about the potential impact on the payload (two spacecraft bound for Mars):

"NG-2 Update: New Glenn is ready to launch. However, due to highly elevated solar activity and its potential effects on the ESCAPADE spacecraft, NASA is postponing launch until space weather conditions improve. We are currently assessing opportunities to establish our next launch window based on forecasted space weather and range availability."

https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1988621902881914961

betteryet• 8 months ago

Love the use of space weather

groos• 8 months ago

This aurora looks predominantly red. The last big one had pinks and greens easily visible to the naked eye. I wonder what causes the difference.

keehun• 8 months ago

Has all to do with solar flare energy levels and how/where it interacts in the atmosphere. [1][2]

[1] https://www.space.com/aurora-colors-explained

[2] https://www.nps.gov/articles/-articles-aps-v8-i1-c9.htm

X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch

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