India's Electric Two-Wheeler Market: Rise, Reset and What Comes Next

https://micromobility.io/news/indias-electric-two-wheeler-market-rise-reset-and-what-comes-next

by prabinjoel • 6 months ago

67 71 6 months ago

Anybody own an electric Two-Wheeler ? What has your experience been ? Pros and Cons ?

alistairSH• 6 months ago

We have an e-assist bicycle, so not quite the same as an e-scooter (moto-style, not kick). But, it's great. It doesn't have a throttle, so no pedal-free mode, but with assist on full setting, it'll go 18mph with very little effort. Great for the 8 mile ride to my wife's office (minimal sweat, she does shower there) and she can turn down the assist on the way home for a cardio workout.

Here in the US, most of the e-scooters (moto-style) are range-limited (battery size/tech) and overpriced (north of $5K) for what you get. Not when a 150cc scooter is <$5000 and will go >100 miles on a ~1 gallon tank.

2Gkashmiri3• 6 months ago

Yep. Bought first one in 2019. Hero electric. Unon-registration one. Brilliant.

In 2023 bought one cheap lead acid battery one for ₹40k. Best cheap decision ever. Takes me around the city. Replaced batteries last month for ₹13k.

I went with cheap ones because they are Low tech. Its simpler to service. Simpler to fix and diy.

My daily run is around 10km so i don't care for anything mileage. In cities, its perfect, even the heavy duty tech loaded ones.

throwawaygod2• 6 months ago

model name?

tillcarlos• 6 months ago

I own a vinfast theon S and a daybike quantum s1. Living in Vietnam.

prices were 2.6k usd and 1.9 for the quantum. Ranges are 100km and 250km

I will probably never buy a gas bike again. Ranges are not a problem in the city. They are quiet and fast. And I pay almost nothing to charge them.

If I complain about air quality I at least feel like I need to put money into companies that are actively working on solutions. Especially for small bikes it’s a no-brainer to go electric.

axus• 6 months ago

The US has a problem with theft, how is it solved in Vietnam?

saxenaabhi• 6 months ago

Isn't 1.9k a bit high? Or is it a mid/high range bike? I heard in china you can get a escooter for 750$ on road, so I would have thought it would similar in vietnam?

quietthrow• 6 months ago

Curious how this impact air pollution? My understanding is that the largest contributor of air pollution in cities is vehicles. And if predominantly the vehicles are cars and 2 wheelers and of that the higher percentage is 2 wheelers and if those are changing from petrol to electric then it should make a dent in pollution. As such air pollution could be a proxy of how e-2w benefit the country…

whateverboat• 6 months ago

Yes. This has long being the case. Cities with national monuments used to enforce "only eletrical taxis" rule near the monuments to protect them from pollution and this was successful.

foobarian• 6 months ago

I imagine if the 2-wheelers have those awful 2-cycle engines this would be a slam dunk

rob74• 6 months ago

Not only air pollution - if I think about the two-stroke engines that typically power cheap two-wheel vehicles, noise pollution also comes to mind...

carlosjobim4• 6 months ago

Even the smallest motorcycles are four-stroke, unless we're talking about hobbyist stuff like dirt bikes.

colechristensen• 6 months ago

2 stroke engines on new vehicles were banned in India 20 years ago and there have also been some restrictions on re-registering old 2 stroke vehicles as well

you're not wrong they just solved that part of the problem already

another_twist• 6 months ago

The most talked about air pollution story in India is Delhi. If you live in India you probably know that the major contributor there is not vehicle smoke but smoke from burning stubbles from nearby agricultural fields. It doesnt happen in other countries with similar agricultural output since stubble finds more profitable avenues eg fodder for livestock. In India, the most profitable thing to do with stubble is to burn it and prepare quickly for the next sowing season.

This is to say that the EV transition wont put a major dent in Delhi's annual air pollution story.

For the other cities, it will have the same impact as anywhere else. Eg when Paris banned or limited vehicle traffic, the air quality improves substantially (BBC had a few before / after pics). Given that India is densely packed, an EV transition should improve air quality markedly atleast in major cities. It wont do anything for other sorts of pollution such as water pollution in the Yamuna but that will take time since these days even London can't keep shit out of the Thames.

albert_e• 6 months ago

China's EV-2W sales graph shows a peak in 2021 and then a declining trend in past few years. Curious to know what's happening there. I couldn't find any explanation in the article (admittedly I just skimmed).

shagie• 6 months ago

Might have been the bike share bubble? Asianometry - China's Bonkers Bike-share Bubble https://youtu.be/FQrEDq8KPiU and China Observer - bike graveyard https://youtu.be/49xQ2sTkjwM

During: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2020/07/4-big-bike-sharing-t...

After: https://www.news8000.com/lifestyle/money/china-s-bike-sharin...

sidkshatriya2• 6 months ago

My theory: China became richer and more developed. So:

(1) Public transport became better and some people shifted to it

(2) Some people upgraded to cars

spaceman_20202• 6 months ago

Price seems to be a pretty big factor, as well as the lack of any charging infrastructure. There’s also the fact that a lot of scooter owning families don’t have dedicated parking spaces in/outside their homes - not even enough to put up a charging point

The other problem is that the pricing for any decent eScooter starts hitting the same price range as a mid-range (for India) bike

The Ola S1 Pro has the same price as Bajaj NS200.

In the Indian context, bikes have way more street appeal. Even a cursory glance would tell you that the Bajaj NS200 looks way cooler than Ola S1.

So at that price range, a consumer essentially has to decide between a cool 150-200cc motorcycle from a trusted manufacturer, or a rather uncool electric scooter from a brand new manufacturer with reports of unreliability, poor charging infrastructure and unknown long term longevity

alephnerd7• 6 months ago

same price range as a mid-range (for India) bike

Or a used Maruti Suzuki.

My relatives from small town India all decided to buy 1-2L used cars instead of an EV Bike when upgrading. The issue is consumers are aspirational, and a two-wheeler just isn't viewed as a positive anymore, as DyCM DK Shivakumar crassly pointed out [0]

That said, I am optimistic about the prospect of EV cars in small town India in the next 5-10 years, as the dealerships also function as EV charge points, and distances traveled are much lower so range anxiety isn't as significant.

[0] https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bengaluru/dk-shivak...

porridgeraisin• 6 months ago

Tier ? cities like Coimbatore already have great EV penetration compared to the metros. Due to better charging infra, and low 4W penetration. Basically low penetration overall. Of course. Taxis stick to the CNG Dzire, so maruti will always appear really high in market share numbers. And they have the aspirational SUV owner covered too with Ertiga (7 seater for 9L).

idiotsecant• 6 months ago

It seems like this is going to be an infrastructure uh oh situation when enough consumers manage to get cars.

graemep3• 6 months ago

Its not just aspirations. Cars are safer and a lot more comfortable - especially air-conditioned cars in a hot climate.

carlosjobim4• 6 months ago

I've heard from friends who are into electrical vehicles that electrical motorcycles aren't a good option economically, because the gas savings are offset by the cost of battery wear and battery replacement.

A gas powered motorbike in comparison will run for decades without having to do any expensive engine maintenance.

mallets3• 6 months ago

It's the opposite IME, most petrol two-wheelers are massive money sinks past 5 years of ownership. You will likely spend close to original price in maintenance and repairs, with most models developing "unfixable" issues that massively degrade the experience. It doesn't need to be engine related for the costs to add up.

Even if the battery craps out after 5 years (extremely unlikely), it's a wash. That's before considering the fuel savings. Battery degradation is a bit of a meme, we aren't even 10 years into mass adoption of EVs for this to be a common experience.

carlosjobim4• 6 months ago

Never had any problem with any bike, except regular maintenance which is changing oil, changing chain, and changing tires. There aren't physically any parts on a motorcycle which could become a "massive money sink" if it breaks from normal use.

Are you talking about weird vintage bikes or Harley Davidson bikes? Because modern bikes don't have maintenance or factory issues.

Battery degradation is a bit of a meme

Well, what is the explanation then? If there isn't a major drawback with electric motorcycles, they would already have sold hundreds of millions of units.

Because of no gas cost, cheaper/no maintenance, better performance, better riding experience, less noisy. Which commuter wouldn't want an electric motorcycle? Are hundreds of millions of potential customers in India, Asia and South America simply fools who don't have the hacker enlightenment?

prmoustache5• 6 months ago

Yes the burden of the fuel price is much less on a vehicle that sip less than 3L/km

prmoustache5• 6 months ago

Main issue is having a parking space with a charger and/or having to pay for it, and price of the new e-motorcycles.

Charging on the side of the road is a no go with motorcycles. I can fill my tank in a few seconds, I wouldn't want to wait more. Until I had a way to charge in an indoor space the only e-motorcycle I considered was the Silence S02 which has a removable battery that you can move as a trolley luggage. But it is still heavy, if you have stairs to climb which was my case until very recently: game over.

I looked at the market to replace my motorcycle, a 300cc scooter, now that I have an indoor parking space where I could in theory install a charger. Most japanese brands are very timid, honda only produces a 50cc equivalent. BMW and Kawasaki are expensive as is Zero motorcycle. To my knowledge Suzuki or Yamaha do not produce any.The rest are mostly chinese brands and many of them are using pretty much scaled up e-bicycle technology with motor in the hub and more importantly zero reliability/service record. And you pay the price of a 125 to get the performance and size of a 50cc moped.

So basically you have the choice between trusted brands and reliable gas powered bikes or do a leap of faith with no insurance that it won't be a shitshow like the aliexpress/amazon e-bike batteries that randomly catch fire. On paper electric stuff should be more reliable but well maintained 125cc bikes tend to be rock solid.

bluebarbet2• 6 months ago

Among all these various factors, not once do you mention the wellbeing of other people. It is not hyperbole to observe that combustion scooters are a scourge on the physical health and mental sanity of a billion Indians.

RationPhantoms• 6 months ago

While I agree, that's a present devil meaning that it's already an accepted way of life. I'm curious how Gogoro's model of swapping batteries would fair in the denser Indian markets.

prmoustache5• 6 months ago

Sadly the wellbeing of other people is rarely a factor people take into account.

lotsofpulp• 6 months ago

Probably 1 billion+ people in India have to prioritize their own (and their kids') well being, such as securing shelter, food, clean water, and safe transportation.

It's a luxury to be able to think about others' well being, especially for something with very slow, long term effects. It's a luxury to even be able to think about your own well being for things that have slow, long term effects.

troyvit2• 6 months ago

I got to bike around Bhubaneswar, the capital of Odisha, in India in 2017, well before this revolution. When you look at it from an outsider's perspective it looks like chaos and I went in with my typical American mindset, hustling my way through the throngs of bikes, pedestrians, mopeds, autos, dogs, and cows.

Once I fell into the natural flow of the system the experience was much more smooth. There's an organic cadence that reminded me of red blood cells bumping around inside capillaries.

I wonder how the spike in e2W use has affected that cadence.

jillesvangurp• 6 months ago

The reason why there are now quite a lot of these things in India (and all over Asia) is that the challenges you cite are in practice not that big of a deal:

- for most people these things are transportation tools, not toys. Performance doesn't really matter all that much. In a big Indian city, the maximum speed is determined by the highly congested traffic, not the performance of the ebike. Going fast is fun but not that essential.

- Many people primarily charge at home, inside their home if needed or remove the battery and charge that inside.

- Unless you drive more than 40/50km, the charge is generally good enough for a full day. And for more intensive use, there are bikes with bigger batteries. Or you can swap in a spare battery.

- If it's not enough for the day, you can charge anywhere there is a wall socket. Unlike cars, people don't tend to use specialized chargers for ebikes. That's pretty much anywhere. You might have to pay for the privilege in some places. But plug it in during your lunch break or whenever you have a gap and you are good to go probably.

- We're talking about less than half a kwh for most ebikes for a full charge. It's not going to break the bank. Charging is really, really cheap.

- Fuel is not cheap. A large part of Asia is still on incomes where that price difference matters; even though especially India has a rather large middle and upper class as well these days. The cost aspect really matters.

Those cheap bikes you are complaining about: they are really cheap. And they kind of work. That's why people are buying these things by the millions now.

yorwba• 6 months ago

I've seen someone in China charge using a cable dangling out a window, so I think charging infrastructure doesn't necessarily have to be an issue if you're willing to settle for the minimum viable option.

prmoustache5• 6 months ago

I've seen that in France as well but honestly this is not applicable if you live in an appartment in a multistory building.

devsda2• 6 months ago

Main issue is having a parking space with a charger and/or having to pay for it

Agree. New apartments in metros are coming up with shared charging spaces but the supposed cost benefit of owning ev is offset by high prices at these chargers. Also as ev adoption grows, you are only looking at more competition in the future for these limited charging slots. Builders for logistical reasons or out of just pure greed are really not keen on allowing installation of charging points at own parking spots.

This seems to be one of the main challenges to overcome even for those who are willing to adopt an ev vehicle.

bschwindHN• 6 months ago

Most japanese brands are very timid, honda only produces a 50cc equivalent.

I believe Honda's CUV-e is 125cc equivalent. They plan to release more electric mopeds / motorcycles in the coming years too, from what I've read. I can try to find sources if you want.

perilunar• 6 months ago

Re charging, the Gogoro “swap and go” battery charging network looks really cool. You can swap the battery over in seconds. No need for a charger at home.

https://www.gogoro.com/

joenot4432• 6 months ago

Range is frequently noted as a limitation for these vehicles, which is understandable.

In NYC there's a (somewhat informal) swapping economy where riders exchange their dead battery for a charged one. There are city run programs and under-the-table ones which are cheaper and less guaranteed. This is how people will do 12h DoorDash shifts without stopping to charge.

I think it's a pretty interesting idea.

fwipsy• 6 months ago

Do you know where I can read more about the battery swapping program? I knew china had some sort of program for EVs but this is news to me.

akmittal• 6 months ago

Honda and few other have launched swapable battery vehicles in India too

joenot4432• 6 months ago

These[1] are the "official" ones which are actually just in the midst of rollout.

The informal ones don't seem to have much web presence, IIRC they were mostly setup in and around the e-bike shops in lower Manhattan and Brooklyn.

Running the same setup with EVs is a fascinating angle!

[1] https://www.nyc.gov/html/dot/html/pr2025/install-public-e-bi...

polshaw• 6 months ago

FWIW Taiwan has had an e-scooter battery swap system for a decade; Gogoro

hacker_88• 6 months ago

Gogoro might be useful

danans2• 6 months ago

For me, the more exciting phenomenon is the electric 3 wheeler, AKA the electric auto-rikshaw/tuk-tuk.

Hired 3 wheelers are the primary affordable last-mile option in cities big and small in Asia when you don't have or can't drive a car or 2-wheeler (school children, the elderly, or anyone who doesn't want to deal with the insane traffic). They tend to have 2-stroke engines, a huge source of local air pollution.

But there are increasingly electric versions these days. I asked one e-rickshaw driver whether he saves money by driving it, and he said yes, but also it's a lot more comfortable for both him and his customers vs the vibrations of the 2 stroke petrol engine.

His only concern was the depreciation and it's effect on resale value.

unmole• 6 months ago

They tend to have 2-stroke engines

Where in Asia are 2-stroke engines for still common?

danans2• 6 months ago

I shouldn't have used the word "tend", but there are still many 2-stroke auto-rickshaws in India. I saw (and smelled) them a year ago. That said, I know many cities in India have banned them, and they are not in production anymore.

Having been in an electric rickshaw, I will take them over a combustion one (2 or 4-stroke) if I have a choice. I hope that the economics in India reach the tipping point where they are the obvious choice for rickshaw drivers.

tibbydudeza• 6 months ago

Pity the Tata Nano failed in India.

alephnerd7• 6 months ago

It's a great case study into how not to market to aspirational consumers.

Consumers are inherently aspirational, and making your entire marketing pitch that the Tata Nano is the "cheapest car in India" implied only poor people would purchase a Nano.

Even if a product is targeted at a lower income market, you still want to build some form of brand prestige otherwise no self respecting consumer will want to associate with the product.

killingtime74• 6 months ago

Would have been Nice to see to see a few pictures of the toys of vehicles in question

India's Electric Two-Wheeler Market: Rise, Reset and What Comes Next

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