Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

https://apnews.com/article/toyota-investment-georgetown-kentucky-factory-9d8142fb9d92ead0f895dd6f3d9fe215

by clouddrover • 2 years ago

239 272 2 years ago

psychlops3• 2 years ago

How much does Toyota pay in taxes in Kentucky or are we subsidizing the factory?

josefresco4• 2 years ago

"KEDFA approved the $43.5 million tax incentives shortly after the Toyota expansion announcement was made Monday. The dollar figure combines the incentives from the Lexus expansion in 2015 with the latest investment for a total of $190 million in incentives, said Jack Mazurak, communications director at KEDFA.

https://www.kentucky.com/news/business/article143755074.html

itsoktocry9• 2 years ago

I don't think there is such thing as manufacturing investment without subsidization any more.

And it most often results in the Winner's Curse: the entity providing the greatest subsidies win's the "investment", but they give up so much in the process that the economic benefits are wiped out.

See: Tesla in Buffalo, VW in Ontario, FoxConn in Wisconsin.

psychlops3• 2 years ago

Overall, yes. But I suspect there are winners if we could follow the money trail.

_ea1k5• 2 years ago

I'm not sure if I agree, tbh. You've certainly brought up some good cases of failures, but what about:

Tesla in Sparks NV, BMW in Greer SC, or Mercedes in Alabama and SC? It seems like those have more than paid for themselves by now. In at least one of those cases, they've had huge regional impacts.

api2• 2 years ago

It's true globally too. China heavily subsidizes their industrial base as do many other countries.

When everyone else is subsidizing you have to subsidize too or you lose.

onlyrealcuzzo• 2 years ago

Foxconn in Wisconsin is the one people love to mention.

AFAIK - they got $3B in FUTURE benefits - of which none came to fruition.

Foxconn delivered nothing and also got almost nothing (~1% of that $3B).

Yeah - it was a dumb political stunt - and it unfortunately worked for the time. But it wasn't the massive financial disaster people think it was.

xyst2• 2 years ago

Let’s be honest. Southern state probably lured them in with a nice package.

Toyota has been moving ops to states with lower cost of living for awhile now. Toyota corp in USA shifted ops from CA to TX a decade back. Many workers hate or regret the move. C-level executives are excited because they pay less in state taxes. Probably even got a nice deal on the land.

bhpm2• 2 years ago

Toyota broke ground in San Antonio more than two decades ago, in 2003, not one. Georgetown KY has been around since 1986 and Princeton IN since 1996. Toyota has been investing in “low cost of living” states for a very long time.

brandonagr23• 2 years ago

How much is the currently empty field where the factory will be built currently contributing to tax revenue?

kycommenter• 2 years ago

I don't know how much they currently pay in taxes, but when Toyota built the plant in the 80's, Kentucky gave $125M in incentives. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Layne_Collins#Toyota_As...

earthwalker992• 2 years ago

Ford made these same promises 2 years ago then bailed when the interest rate rose.

itsoktocry9• 2 years ago

Ford made these same promises 2 years ago then bailed when the interest rate rose.

Sometimes investment makes sense, and then things change and it doesn't make sense anymore. That's fair, isn't it?

earthwalker992• 2 years ago

Fair? What would that even mean?

These empty promises are how we ended up electing Trump the first time and it's virtually guaranteeing that we'll elect him a second time.

Rural Kentucky is in horrible shape and a lot of people here were placing hope in this, much like they have so many other empty promises from their leaders, so at least stop acting surprised when the consequences show themselves.

kjksf2• 2 years ago

$1.3B seems like a lot of money but it isn't for a car factory, especially spread over many years.

For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years.

Nevada factory took $6.2B and Tesla plans to spend additional $3.6B

Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/continuing-our-investment-nevada

_ea1k5• 2 years ago

Yeah, it must be less than 1% of revenue. Probably a lot less, given that it is likely spread over several years.

jgalt212• 2 years ago

It feels "right-sized" given Toyota's approach towards EV's and the slowing adoption rate of EVs in the US.

suoduandao32• 2 years ago

I do believe that Tesla's success in the last decade was in large part due to the fact it was the only technology company that could use all the money people were throwing at technology companies.

anonylizard• 2 years ago

Softbank's belief was that throwing capital would just make things work. But from wework to many other of their startups shows its not the case.

Telsa had to deploy their capital very efficiently in a capital intensive industry. Say their bet on the Shanghai factory, despite obvious IP leak risks and spawning deadly competitors like BYD, was their only choice to reach scale at a low cost.

dzhiurgis• 2 years ago

Ummmm you might want to compare debt of VW, Toyota and Tesla

itsoktocry9• 2 years ago

For context: Tesla is guiding for $10+B a year capex spending for the next 3 years.

I know people around these parts think that Tesla has uncovered some magical factory building ability, but can you even consider the fact that maybe Toyota knows what they are doing?

Toyota is still under-investing in EV. $1.3B is nothing.

This is one factory.

brandonagr23• 2 years ago

What about Toyota's plans makes you think they will ever catch up to everyone else with EVs?

mbesto• 2 years ago

I know people around these parts think that Tesla has uncovered some magical factory building ability, but can you even consider the fact that maybe Toyota knows what they are doing?

Not a Tesla fanboy (I'm turning mine in for a Rivian), but the OP wasn't saying this, not sure how you got that conclusion. They are saying for a car company they are (1) way behind and (2) any investments they are making won't reach fruition for years, nor likely make a dent in the industry.

Outside of MB and the Chinese EVs, the design of Tesla motors is far superior. Their build quality and finishing is awful however - something the traditional players do really well.

pawptart• 2 years ago

As someone who lives a few miles from Georgetown, KY, it's important to note that this factory already exists and sounds like they are (partially) re-tooling it to begin EV production. So that might explain the dollar figure.

jmoak3• 2 years ago

Louisville checking in, spent a lot of time in Georgetown and can confirm this is likely just more work on the Camry plant.

Toyota has been good to the area.

Off topic, but is there a popular tech meetup in the state? Moved back a year and some change ago and would love to get more involved.

daveguy• 2 years ago

I'm not sure what could justify comparing the announcement of a single investment to upgrade a plant to the capex of an entire auto company.

Do you really think this $1.3B is Toyota's entire capex in EV?

apapapa• 2 years ago

In addition to that, I wouldn't be surprised if they got 100 percent of that amount from the government in one way or another

anonu2• 2 years ago

Similarly, Hyundai building $8bn battery plant outside Savannah, Georgia:

https://apnews.com/article/hyundai-georgia-electric-vehicle-...

downrightmike• 2 years ago

Its because the south is fairly young and impoverished, so cheaper to mfg there. Down vote, but that's the reason.

frogpelt• 2 years ago

Have you ever been to the south? The down votes are because your position is asinine.

It's more likely that southern states are willing to throw huge incentive packages to these manufacturers. Probably not so much on the coasts or the northern states.

Also, unions are less common in the south; those states tend to be right-to-work states.

Finally, you used the word "impoverished", which is ridiculous. But wages are lower in the south so that is probably another reason.

anonu2• 2 years ago

Savannah and Brunswick are huge car export ports because many manufacturing facilities are spread out between South Carolina and Georgia: Volvo, Mercedes, BMW, Honda, KIA to name a few. These ports are also the largest on the Eastern seaboard of the US. So access to shipping is probably one of the main reasons. Also major demographic shifts to the Southeastern part of the US help supply the labor pool.

Georgia and South Carolina tend to be the poorest states. The Poverty rate is around 14.5% for both. Compare that to California where the poverty rate is 12.5%. Though the poverty rate is lower, California has more people in poverty than Georgia and South Carolina combined. Anyway, using the word "impoverished" is grossly misleading.

KennyBlanken2• 2 years ago

No, it's because Georgia is very aggressively courting large manufacturers with "phantom bonds" and "bond for title" deals.

Problem is, it's not paying off - the state isn't benefiting overall from it, and as soon as they stop providing these sweetheart tax breaks and freebies, comopanies will pull up and move to the next state willing to do so

belltaco4• 2 years ago

At least Hyundai hasn't been faking emissions tests like Toyota.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/commit...

Not to mention spending a lot on lobbying against clean air regulations aroun the world https://thedriven.io/2023/05/11/toyota-under-fire-for-anti-c...

consumer451• 2 years ago

As someone who used to be a stalwart fan of Toyota, their behaviour recently is not my favorite.

KennyBlanken2• 2 years ago

Not to mention campaigning hard against EVs, complete with anti-EV propaganda in the form of kids' stories distributed to schools: https://electrek.co/2021/11/11/how-toyota-sneakily-spreads-a...

otachack• 2 years ago

Hyundai did skimp out on standard anti-theft mechanisms which led to a significant number of car jackings upon discovery and viral share via TikTok.

https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/kia-hyundai-car-thefts-se...

Every manufacturer has got a story at this point.

avn2109• 2 years ago

> "At least Hyundai hasn't been faking emissions tests..."

Not to devil's advocate, but it's tough to prove a negative. All we can say for sure is that they've not been caught yet.

xyst2• 2 years ago

On the bright side, some manufacturing jobs brought state side. On the other hand, it’s in KY. These multibillion dollar deals tend to land in states with the lowest cost of living, non-educated workforce, minimal enforcement/respect of environment (dump waste into rivers), and tend to be subsidized at the state and local levels.

Apple opened up shop outside of Austin (ie, not Travis County) because of lower taxes and more incentives provided by other county. Multi Trillion dollar company by the way. Amazon has been opening up warehouses in the sticks, soaking up all of those incentives from those desperate small towns looking to giveaway the land for a couple of decades in exchange for short term gains (mayor/city council able to say, we brought X jobs to Y town!1). Yet another multibillion company taking advantage of the desperate.

What do the people get in return? Getting the opportunity to work shit hours in a non-union job. Possibly back breaking work. No investment in their future. Just cogs in the wheel which are completely fungible (broke your back? File a claim with insurance. Fuck off. Deal with it. Not our problem. Then hire the next sucker to replace you. Rinse and repeat)

Xirgil• 2 years ago

Yeah, those poor towns should just remain poor, definitely don't spend a billion dollars there, that would be terrible for them.

2devnull• 2 years ago

Agree that often politicians sell out their people and natural resources (the rights and endowment of future citizens) for short term gain. This is a natural consequence of politicians being inherently terrible people by and large.

themaninthedark• 2 years ago

State environmental laws can be more restrictive than the Federal but not less, so if anyone is dumping into waterways the EPA can go after them.

Don't know of many waterways that are solely in one state so the EPA automatically has jurisdiction as well.

What is it that you are purposing? That companies don't go to states with low cost of living?

The idea that "it's KY" is bigoted. They are people, just like anyone else. We don't tolerate it when others are dismissive of people based on their race and we should not be tolerant of the attitude based on where they live either.

nebula88043• 2 years ago

They should unionize. In fact UAW wants to unionize all automakers including Tesla and the ones in the south. They failed in the past but with the downward trajectory of population size, there is a great opportunity here.

Now you might say they will just leave the US and manufacture elsewhere. Well thats where tariffs come in and the UAW is a core voting block so they will have to alter any plans to move to Mexico. Higher inflation will be the result but its probably worth it long term.

mp053• 2 years ago

They should unionize

No one at these Toyota facilities has an appetite for that. The benefits package and overall lifestyle for a TMMK worker is quite nice compared to the average person in the Lexington metro and the jobs are competitive.

Perhaps ironically, when I was in school, the biggest issue was finding engineers that would accept the pay which was generally lower than guys on the floor.

mp053• 2 years ago

non-educated workforce

Sorry, but to be frank, you just don't know what you're talking about.

I did a co-op at TMMK in Georgetown, KY many moons ago and it was a short drive from Lexington where I was studying for my mech engineering degree at UK. It is a massive university with a solid engineering school, for the uninitiated. The metro also has an excellent network of technical colleges and during my various other stints over those years, I was always impressed with the quality of the workforce on the factory floors.

As someone born in the coalfields of Appalachia, I'll admit that the ignorant hillbilly stereotype has some merit, but that's two hours of interstate driving east of where this is happening and the cultures have almost nothing in common. Hill people don't really leave the hills and Lexington is quite the "big city" for where I come from, full of hifalutin Whole Foods shoppers. I think the series "Justified" does a good job of describing this phenomenon.

There is a lot more I could address about your thoughts on labor and poverty, but it's hard to move past your premise and I don't have time to write a treatise... but JD Vance did and it's pretty good.

rpcope1• 2 years ago

Have you ever actually been to the Lexington metro? It's not really any of that bullshit you just wrote.

jonnycomputer5• 2 years ago

More Biden policy winning back investment in America, is my take.

Update:

People who may not have been following closely what Biden has accomplished during his Presidency might have questions.

In this case, the Inflation Reduction Act specifically has credits to encourage battery manufacture in the US.

https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2022/11/Section-45X-of-th...

More generally, the IRA and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the CHIPS act has encouraged investment in US manufacturing, which is surging.

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/manufactur...

thinkingtoilet2• 2 years ago

I'm left of Bernie and voted for Biden but I tend to not like takes like this. Is there a specific policy that he championed that is responsible for this? To me, it's like when people cheer a 'record stock market' as an example of a president's abilities, but fail to mention every single modern president has had a record stock market at some point in their term.

jonnycomputer5• 2 years ago

Yeah, the Inflation Reduction Act.

https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2022/11/Section-45X-of-th...

More generally, the IRA and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructure_Investment_and_...

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/manufactur...

There's also the CHIPS act.

By the way, anyone active in the green tech space knows that the IRA has been an absolute game-changer.

mywittyname2• 2 years ago

Is there a specific policy that he championed that is responsible for this?

This was something the President activity campaigned on (Build Back Better), pushed through Congress, and signed into law as The Inflation Reduction Act.

While it did little to reduce inflation (outside of medicine), it was a massive win for people who wanted more investment in clean power generation, more funds for the ACA, lower drug prices, and higher taxes on certain corporate entities.

vlangber• 2 years ago

Several battery factories that were planned in Norway have scaled down their plans or have been cancelled due to the much better incentives in the IRA.

dmix3• 2 years ago

US domestic manufacturing became a major theme in the last two prior US elections.

If you look at growth charts in US factory capital it started spiking just before the signing of CHIPS act which was pitched to congress in 2019, which was a bipartisan effort seeded from the Trump admin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act

And the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act which Biden admin pitched to congress, which also got pretty smooth bipartisan support:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrastructure_Investment_and_...

But it's success will be defined on how successful the factories are, not just how many billions/trillions of free $$ the US gov gives to megacorps to prop up these projects. We've seen many, many gov-incentivized factory announcements that went no where. Or worse wasted a ton of time & money of local govs + small town employees. The Obama admin had a few really bad examples of this.

jonnycomputer5• 2 years ago

Yes, but the CHIPS act was also signed by Biden. I think we can fairly credit him for seeing it through. Trump talked a lot about bringing manufacturing back, but he did not have the self-discipline to actually see any of it through; legislatively, Trump is a master of self-sabotage.

But it is true that the CHIP had bipartisan support, but the ones who supported it were not MAGA types, but people like McConnell.

seadan835• 2 years ago

Or worse wasted a ton of time & money of local govs + small town employees. The Obama admin had a few really bad examples of this.

Indeed. China had even more examples, but overall they found the winners and boosted them. The US instead defunded and now China produces 80% of all solar panels in the world. It's similar for VC firm, for example, they'll invest in 10 companies and expect only a couple to be profitable.

If you look at growth charts in US factory capital it started spiking just before the signing of CHIPS act which was pitched to congress in 2019, which was a bipartisan effort seeded from the Trump admin.

Do you have those charts available? I was initially going to give a commendation for pointing out the Trump's administration's role in the Chips act, but... the Chips act was passed in late 2022! "The bill was signed into law by President Joe Biden on August 9, 2022." [1]

What's more, while the CHIPS act was initially bi-partisan, it passed in a relatively partisan vote: "Every senator in the Senate Democratic Caucus except for Bernie Sanders voted in favor of passing the CHIPS Act, and they were joined by seventeen Republican senators" [1]

Bottom line, seems like this bill was presented to Senators* in 2019 and then took time to work its way through Congress. It does not seem the Trump admin had much to do with this (I would more says the CHIPS act was seeded from an initial bipartisan effort that originated in the Senate; there's no mention I see that the executive branch had anything to do with it in 2019; if anything, it seems that congress of 2019 and whatever role the executive had at the time both _failed_ to get the CHIPS act through; it was the next congress that got it done in 2022)

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act

* I'm not entirely sure if 'presented' to senators means there was an executive branch role. My reading of the wiki article is that it sounds like the original 2019 bill originated in the Senate. I just don't see anything that mentions the executive's role in 2019 or 2020.

bhpm2• 2 years ago

I am curious about what vehicles these will be for. When Toyota says “EVs” they often mean hybrids. The article makes this distinction, but Toyota didn’t in any statements.

mywittyname2• 2 years ago

The e-TNGA platform that underpins the BZ4x was supposed to have several more products built on it, including a larger SUV. This vehicle could be that SUV, or it could be one of the first products built on the platform that will replace the e-TNGA.

The Georgetown plant currently produces Camry and Rav4.

_ea1k5• 2 years ago

In the US, some PHEVs with relatively small batteries can qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit.

You might be on to something there. It would certainly explain the size of the investment. A $1.3B plant might not build a lot of EVs, but it could build quite a few PHEVs.

enragedcacti3• 2 years ago

Specifically it's 7kWh minimum in addition to all of the other sourcing and assembly requirements. In practice there haven't been any PHEVs with less, the smallest PHEV battery so far in the US is 8kWh in a Ferrari. It'll be interesting to see if more small battery PHEVs come out trying to target HEV price points with the tax credit. It would still be a huge jump up from standard hybrids which as far as I'm aware are rarely more than 1.5kWh.

kWh makes sense if your goal is to stimulate US battery production but I really wish there were an all-electric range requirement, A hypothetical 6.8kWh Prius Prime would get more range that the 21kWh Wrangler 4xe.

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean...

mdorazio• 2 years ago

The Kentucky plant will produce the upcoming 3-row BEV called bZ5X. Additional BEVs have been announced for 2026 and will likely share battery components from Kentucky and the new battery factory being built in North Carolina.

the_third_wave• 2 years ago

An interesting contrast showed up in my RSS feed regarding this subject:

First this HN post: Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

A few lines below that: Toyota Refused To Hop On The Electric Vehicle Bandwagon, And It Paid Off Big Time [1]

We'll see where the chips fall but thus far it seems Tesla is one of the few western companies which manages to profitably produce and sell consumer EVs. I suspect Chinese companies like BYD run at a profit as well but it is hard to get access to reliable data. Volkswagen seems to be aiming for 'profit parity for EVs' in 2025 but they seem to have a long way to go [2].

[1] https://dailycaller.com/2024/02/07/toyota-2023-fiscal-year-3...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volksw...

costanzaDynasty• 2 years ago

Globalization is rolling back. It's about to be boom times in America as long as the politicians from all parties can actually move from one troth to another and actually pass bills.

trgn4• 2 years ago

Seems to be almost daily news stories about huge capital investment in manufacturing in the US, a couple billion here, a couple billion there. Was I just blind to these 5-10 years ago?

smileysteve• 2 years ago

Targeted subsidies, the most recent bill to the IRA may be Cash For Clunkers.

flextheruler• 2 years ago

Inflation reduction act

babypuncher• 2 years ago

No, it's new as of the last ~2 years.

Gibbon12• 2 years ago

Geopolitics: China's sudden shift to authoritarianism under the new emperor has everyone fleeing for the exits as the US and Europe abandon the project to bring China into the club.

Economics, Neoliberalism is dead. The pandemic killed it. Policy makers well understand the economy can tolerate a lot of disruption.

Politics: Dispossessed voters turning to fascism has sharpened politicians and sane business leaders minds.

Global Warning and new Tech: Solar, wind, batteries, and the need to faze out fossil fuels creates risks and opportunities. Risks will be born by those that try business as usual.

Increased automation: Low skilled dirt cheap labor is less important than it was 20-30 years ago. That changes the balance point between low cost offshored labor and the pain in the ass that offshoring is.

nebula88043• 2 years ago

Not convinced: Not enough workers with the appropriate expertise to outmatch China and there is no appetite to import more people from either side of the aisle (despite what you might hear in the news).

But people might be more happy walking, biking, etc.

No scenario where division does not increase especially after this upcoming election.

charles_f• 2 years ago

To be fair Toyota has had local factories for the longest time as part of their JIT manufacturing philosophy.

topspin• 2 years ago

These local factories exist due to automotive manufacturing "domestic content" laws, as opposed to whatever JIT manufacturing philosophy Toyota might have. Pushed by the UAW and signed by Reagan in the 1980's, the US has many foreign car factories in the US as a direct result.

pavon• 2 years ago

Cars, and EVs in particular have strong protectionist laws in the US that make it more expensive to import vehicles than to build them locally. There are a few other sectors like semiconductor fabs where we have started to introduce protectionist policies but I haven't seen any movement to expand those types of policies to most other manufacturing sectors.

chii2• 2 years ago

protectionist policies hurt the end consumer more than they protect the workers.

It's already bad to have any sector that is protected from competition (foreign or domestic), why look to expand it?

Rebelgecko• 2 years ago

Is this to make the solid state batteries that Toyota has been hyping up for a decade?

kyevevevev• 2 years ago

lol #41. Kentucky [0] Percentage of registered vehicles that are electric: 0.06% Total registered electric vehicles: 2,650 (#33 overall) Number of statewide charging stations: 222 (#37 overall) Number of charging ports per 100 EVs: 19.9 (#21 overall)

[0]https://www _ copilotsearch _ com/posts/states-with-the-most-electric-vehicles/

rootusrootus15• 2 years ago

#44 in income. That's the real reason to put a factory there. And it's a good reason why EV adoption would be low there as well.

oflannabhra• 2 years ago

TMMK (Toyota Motor Manufacturing Kentucky) has an $8B plant in Kentucky, the largest Toyota manufacturing facility in the world. This plant is where all Camry models are manufactured, which is the best-selling car in the United States. Additionally, all Rav4 Hybrid models are manufactured there, including all the motors (not just assembly).

Seems like a smart place to build your own batteries to me.

sandworm101• 2 years ago

> Environmental groups have long criticized Toyota for being slow to move toward fully electric vehicles, instead clinging to gas-electric hybrid technology.

When you run a company as large and old as Toyota, you always hedge your bets. There are some other options to battery-powered electric vehicles (hydrogen IC). They are currently not as mature but anyone running something as big as Toyota needs to hedge against that sort of outlier tech. If Toyota abandoned IC, got rid of its IC production lines, they would suffer hugely if hydrogen IC one out as the green tech. All the major car companies do such things. That's why they have survived as long as they have.

Would Tesla survive if a new hydrogen storage killed the market for battery-powered cars? Toyota has seen and survived a few such revolutions.

aaronbrethorst• 2 years ago

Bet hedging would’ve meant introducing the BZ4X years ago. Instead, there were 8 years between when Toyota announced their first hydrogen car and their first electric vehicle. This if an example of simply betting wrong.

oohffyvfg3• 2 years ago

hydrogen was the right bet for trucks and buses. they are planning hide infrastructure in Asia.

the world is not only southern California and Sweden.

DanielSantos• 2 years ago

Exactly. Toyota's CEO also explained a few weeks ago that they need to build cars for the whole world. Many countries are not ready yet with infrastructure for electric cars.

I would also add since insurance companies don't want to insure the transportation of batteries in container ships, it makes it difficult for Toyota to produce electric cars in all regions, it would mean they would always need to have a battery factory nearby. https://toyotatimes.jp/en/toyota_news/1055_1.html#anchorTitl...

rootusrootus15• 2 years ago

are not ready yet with infrastructure for electric cars

The same infrastructure they need for everything else in their life. I bet they have way better access to electricity than they do hydrogen. Or even gasoline, frankly. Solar panels are cheap.

scythe• 2 years ago

Hydrogen as a sole technology is going to keep eating that 2-3x energy penalty versus batteries regardless of storage tech. Hydrogen IC has even worse efficiency than FC. The only exception would be if hydrogen mining yields world-changing amounts of the stuff.

As a hybrid technology, it has a case. If you run 80% of the time on battery and 20% of the time on hydrogen at 50% RTE, you burn 120% of the fuel. But if you weigh 30% less, you could end up saving energy. The up to 60% efficiency of the fuel cell is losing energy as heat, and people like to run the heater, so some of that energy isn't lost in appropriate climates. And of course, refueling is faster for road trips. The best system weight is probably for the experimental direct-ammonia alkaline membrane fuel cells, assuming it's possible to stabilize them, because ammonia fuel systems (about 100 psi) are much simpler than hydrogen systems (about 10000 psi!). So there's a little room left for the hydrogen fans. But it's fundamentally a battery-powered car most of the time.

grecy• 2 years ago

Toyota has seen and survived a few such revolutions.

That sounds really interesting, I'd love to learn more. What such revolutions has Toyota survived?

hintymad2• 2 years ago

I was wondering how the manufacturers address the potential culture conflicts. Obama's documentary American Factory revealed two notable contentions. One is that American workers think that the management is too tough on them while the management think that the workers are too unreasonable. The other is that Chinese workers are 30% (or 2X?) more efficient than American workers. I have no judgement on the first contention, but the second worries me. American labors were known to be the best in the world many years ago, and a strong argument against offshoring manufacturing was that Chinese workers were much worse than Americans. Yet the tide has turned.

thedaly• 2 years ago

The other is that Chinese workers are 30% (or 2X?) more efficient than American workers.

What metrics is this based on?

CamperBob2• 2 years ago

The "two countries with very different labor laws" metric, I imagine.

ericmay2• 2 years ago

I don't really follow what you're trying to say with your last sentence and I'd be skeptical of a claim that Chinese workers are 30% more efficient, but Toyota, Honda, Nissan, and others have maintained US manufacturing facilities for decades and seem to be doing just fine with any potential culture conflicts.

The 30% number you cite could be true but perhaps in order for Chinese (or any other country) manufacturing to be economical perhaps it needs to be 60%. Mexico is actually important here.

wongarsu2• 2 years ago

Toyota has manufacturing facilities in at least 16 countries, so they probably have this figured out. US import duties make it especially lucrative for manufacturers to have US facilities, which lines up with Toyota having 10 other facilities in the US, plus some in Canada and Mexico.

Still, in my eyes that only makes it more intriguing how they bridge the cultural differences, since whatever they are doing seems to be working.

hintymad2• 2 years ago

claim that Chinese workers are 30% more efficient

I was just quoting what the documentary said. There was so much contention between the management and the workers in the American glass factory featured in the documentary. In the end, the management hosted a competition between the American workers and the Chinese workers. Chinese workers won with a big margin.

wongarsu2• 2 years ago

American labors were known to be the best in the world many years ago

I'm pretty sure every country says that about themselves. It's more a statement of national pride than of fact.

achates• 2 years ago

I doubt that will be a problem here. Their Kentucky plant is huge, it's been around for decades and it makes lots of high quality cars including the Camry. Toyota goes to a lot of effort to teach the workers their production system and culture.

itomato• 2 years ago

Forcing people to eat off the Dollar menu has consequences

ThinkBeat3• 2 years ago

This is of course mostly due to the giant US subsidies the federal government is offering citizens now, but the EV must be "built" in the US (Which has some loopholes and strange definitions in it)

I dont quite understand why the sales of EVs in the US is considered to have flattened out according to some statistics.

skeeter2020• 2 years ago

My understanding is this is model and region dependent. Example: the Ford lightning has tepid demand in a lot of US markets and a multi-year waiting list in Canada. (I realize you're focused on US, but so much of the auto supply chain is coordinated between the 2 countries)

rootusrootus15• 2 years ago

I like the Lightning but as a practical matter it's a little bit of a tough sell. Pickups are so terribly inefficient to begin with that it needs a boatload of battery just to have acceptable range. That's expensive, and also increases the time it takes to charge. I commend Ford for the ambition to make an electric version of their best selling vehicle, but I think that segment will be stronger when 200+ kWh batteries are affordable and flattish 350kW charge rates are the norm.

njarboe• 2 years ago

All, or almost all EV brands in the US are selling less this year than last. Except Tesla, which has about 65% market share.

rootusrootus15• 2 years ago

You know this in February?

The real point is that Tesla has been driving prices lower than other manufacturers are willing to stomach, and that resistance to price matching shows up as cars sitting on lots.

rootusrootus15• 2 years ago

I dont quite understand why the sales of EVs in the US is considered to have flattened out according to some statistics.

Politics. Some people want it to be true, so they conflate an easing of the growth rate as an actual rate reduction. It could also be innocent ignorance of statistics.

The real hang up with EVs right now is primarily price. They're just reaching the point where TCO is a wash. Historically, most people are extremely responsive to fuel cost advantages, so as the capital cost comes down most people will switch. At least the ones who can charge at home, which is most.

I do feel bad for people who live in places with high electricity prices, like California and Massachusetts. Makes it harder to win on TCO, but at least the convenience factor is still there. But for those who can access sub-10 cent per kWh pricing, it's nice to spend a few hundred dollars per year for fuel.

MuffinFlavored2• 2 years ago

But for those who can access sub-10 cent per kWh pricing

I think you need a blend of solar for that

https://www.energybot.com/electricity-rates/

The cheapest in the country is $0.1122/kWh in Utah. The average is $0.17/kWh

ThinkBeat3• 2 years ago

but the massive $7000 subsidy should make EVs a lot more competitive?

hettygreen• 2 years ago

Are there issues with these factories? environmental? safety?

punkybr3wster• 2 years ago

Why companies put factories in states that actively go against the products they build is mind boggling.

Toyota to invest $1.3B in Kentucky factory to build battery packs and new EV

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