anonylizard

It is just sad that commentary like this even exists.

I sincerely am curious of the education that produces sentences like this. On one hand it is articulate and educated, on the other hand its amazing that one can think China is doing this out of charity and not wiping out its competitors one after the other.

Why not?

Zuckerburg has already realized that local social networks will be utterly replaced by AI chatbots, which are superior in like 99% of cases.

It doesn't matter if others find "Facebook" icky, because the people who would find it icky, don't use facebook anyways. The critical factor is getting a new group of users onboard, to form a sustainable core of users.

You can pay for long term support from private companies.

And your scientific context is a distinct minority for python now. Most new development for python is for data/AI. Considering LLMs get updated every quarter, and depreciated every year, there is no appetite for code that doesn't get updated for 5 years.

Because python dominates AI, and python is dominating because of AI. And prompting really, really benefits from f-strings and templated strings. LLMs as a whole means the rise of unstructured data, and flexible string manipulation is really important for handling that.

Its a gigantic bet on user stickiness in AI, and the monetizable value of AI users who don't pay for subscriptions. Aka low-end consumers vs high-end consumers.

Nvidia and AMD were low-end vs high-end. In the end Nvidia won a total victory by ditching low margin distractions like building GPUs for consoles, and focused solely on higher end PC GPUs that could dually act as accessible research chips.

Do you worship the posting guidelines or something? Are you that offended by someone adding information to a post? The forum is a public one, not a 1-1 conversation.

The poster added valuable information, that is interesting and not self-evidently obvious to the average person who doesn't think much about restaurants, that makes the forum more useful to others?

AI just represents a new class of business, that doesn't need consumers or revenue or business plans.

Traditionally you want to build a moat with name recognition, established customer base etc. OpenAI has absorbed huge losses to serve consumers at below inference cost.

But its not clear if that has advantaged OpenAI or not. Turns out most AI customers are only loyal to the most intelligent model. So if a competitor releases a better model, the shift away can be extremely rapid.

So SSI probably is a bet on that, to just develop the model in private, and not waste time and energy on deployment, name recognition, go to market, enterprise sales etc. Have a decisive model advantage, and customers will crash your door trying to get it.

If one compares O3-mini's coding abilities to the original GPT-4. It is as large as GPT-3 to GPT-4 gap

GPT-3: Useful as autocomplete. Still error prone, but vastly better than any pre-AI autocomplete

GPT-4: Already capable of independently coding up simple functions based on natural language.

O3-mini: Can code in say top 5% of codeforces.

There's a 2 years gap between each of them.

More over, intelligence has a superexponential return, 90IQ->100IQ < 100IQ->110IQ in terms of returns.

Most of social sciences today is 'degenerate' by your definition, at least a plurality of those researchers openly admit that following the evidence is not the highest virtue, but arriving at the most socially correct result is.

Indeed you can. This only affects the heavily subsidized usps shipping process. If your r&d cannot afford fedex you shouldn’t be doing r&d.

For all the supposed panic and importance of this process, the poster didn’t do even a google search of this issue

Government is exactly a codebase. Government bureaucracies is essentially constricting human judgement to more robotic code-like behavior, that's the only way to build large systems.

You say government is not like code, then what exactly is it? Can you describe it in an effective way? Or are you just going to raise your hand up and say there's nothing we can do about it, nothing we can do about the $2 trillion/year titanic deficit?

Historical governments often needed little beyond an army and a tax collection system. And tax collection system was primarily data gathering and analysis, since if you knew how much property someone owned, you can easily tax them for an appropiate amount.

The tech way of thinking has proven extremely successful in many industries already. That's why tech companies (and tech adjacent ones, like say quant trading, or even index fund trading) have been so economically dominant, and utterly kicked out the traditional MBAs from their pedestals.

Stop being a self hating programmer who despises the mentality of tech.

Compelled speech is far, far, far worse than constricting speech by every conceivable dimension.

Even in day to day interaction, forcing someone to be silent, is far more of a gentler 'social action' than forcing someone to speak.

DOGE is staffed precisely by the tech elite. Like 20 year old grads who are elite programmers winning competitions, that type.

Are they not part of the tech community now? You highly overestimate the political homogeneity of the tech community, because opposing voices were previously so shut down. You would be surprised by what your co-workers are thinking deep down.

In that respect it is astonishingly successful by every measure. Musk got his global political shift and becoming co-president of the US for a causal $40 billion.

This, the US is the country most willing to make daring bets on innovation.

Europe will not spend even 0.1% of its pension/welfare fund on big research bets. The private investors their will only want real estate investments, not fancy wancy "VC".

Young talent will flow one way from other countries to the US, because they've already seen what the grass is like on their side.

There's a titanic market with people wanting some uncensored local LLM/image/video generation model. This market extremely overlaps with gamers today, but will grow exponentially every year.

That's not true, and only seems true because of highly selective examples.

Money can force people to work, out of the necessity of survival. What it buys is reliability. You can force a toilet cleaner to come to work day after day, and the toilets stay clean.

But human progress, social progress, economic growth, does not solely come from people grinding through their jobs. It comes from people 'giving it their all', look at the great scientists, Newton, Von Nuemann, all the people at bell labs etc. These people create titanic economic value in their wake, and they are motivated by passion, which heavily mixes altruism with self interest.

Indeed, the 'developed economies' are precisely the ones that also allow 'care' to scale, that's why we have social welfare, that's why we have free education.

Its that 'Care' doesn't scale, its that its impossible to centrally monitor and control. People in the third world work harder than the first world, and are 10% as rich, because no one in their societies care.

The odds are like 95%-5% against them, nothing will save them at this point.

Stockholders don't even have that much influence. Because of all the index investing, board votes are often decided by say Vanguard/Blackrock, not mom and pop investors

It is only after stocks suffer severe shocks, does private equity spring into action, and discipline executives via the threat of acquisition & firings.

So its is actually executives that can be shortsighted, not an ultra-long-termist passive investment dominated US investor base.

Once you have paying customers, you can hire an actual developer.

Claude is not 100x for any typical software work, but the biggest gains come from precisely 'non-typical work', which is previously impossible.

Imagine a domain expert, who knows a niche super well with all the weird edge cases and untapped demand. Hiring a developer for it doesn't work because.

1. The communication costs are too high, the developer won't know the business niche in depth enough to make a good product.

2. The niche is not profitable enough to risk hiring a developer.

Now LLMs allows the solo non-technical founder to make a MVP app, and put it to market to test, for very little cost and risk. Sure the app is not really extendable, may have to be heavily rewritten to expand and maintain, but hiring a developer then, will be a much lower risk task.

It doesn't even reduce developer employment this way, as now there's a ton more niche use cases being opened up, and becoming profitable enough to support developers.

How small are the autonomous attack subs? GPUs powerful enough to power autonomous decision making attack subs are going to consume a lot of energy, a lot more than what a car sized system powered by batteries can provide.

As such, only nuclear AI subs may be viable, since that gives the strategic advantage of a submarine that doesn't need to resurface for like years. But putting nuclear reactors in an autonomous AI system sounds like a terrible idea.

Human societies have spent millenia developing the infrastructure to produce reliable/trustworthy soldiers. AI is not nearly at that level in terms of trustworthiness/fault tolerance, even if they will quickly be as smart as soliders.

There were no counters to cavalry for like 1000 years. The only generalized countermeasure to cavalry was cavalry of your own. This led to the dramatic territorial and genetic expansion of nomadic peoples, such as the Arabs and Turks.

There are specific 'counters' like pikes, fortifications etc, but they only trade effectively against head on charges. Cavalry still held the advantage of tactical mobility, which meant they dominated reconnaissance, can pursue and annihilate defeated enemies, can retreat gracefully etc.

There may be no counters to drones except for more drones. Or the counter may have to be highly strategical, such as devastating hack-based attacks that may involve use of advanced and dangerous AIs (Cyberpunk Blackwall...).

Artilleries also had no counter for like 50 years. And completely reshaped military doctrine and strategy, made WW1 into a slog etc. WWII found a way to 'beat' artillery by armored thrusts to get behind them, but that is not easily achievable.

Soldiers exist, but expensive western soldiers are basically a different species compared to the cheap militia of the third world.

All the strategic decisions of western militaries is based on the sheer expensiveness of their foot soldiers, which means reluctance to fight ground wars, extreme aversion to casualties etc.

It also meant advanced militaries generally shrunk massively in terms of soldier count, ending conscription, making the existing forces more elite and more equipped (Since the meat solider is so expensive anyways).

So helicopters, given their decreasing cost effectiveness, is likely to entirely disappear as a tactical weapon. They will be transport only going forward, or some sort of a big drone carrier.

Automattic requested well over $10 million annually from WP Engine, so WP engine would find a lawyer battle cheaper.

Well no one is losing confidence in US space program. Since SpaceX has the overwhelming global lead in space engineering.

The main issue is, NASA for political reasons, has to keep the delusion of the 'have 2 suppliers'. Boeing is clearly nonviable anymore, but as you said, it has tremendous influence in US congress, so NASA pays them billions.

NASA's programs would be simpler if they simply just dumped all the money to SpaceX, but that could cause longer term issues. The other solution would be partnering with Airbus as the backup supplier, but that would cause political earthquake.

Well, that was probably Boeing's line for the MAX disasters, until the second one occurred.

Boeing is clearly undergoing systemic collapse in engineering ability, so anything Boeing has to be treated with extreme suspicion. Its like hiring a 3-time-felon to babysit, like you can do it, but there will be 0 tolerance for any deviance.

For most tech startups, when the growth period hits, its vital there must be NO DELAY to scale. Miss the timing and its permanently gone. If word of mouth leads to a sudden surge of orders, you must be able to supply the good, or you get very angry customers who walk straight into the competitors door.

Most of the value generated by startups is highly concentrated in the few that succeed. So naturally the industry should optimize itself to go big or go home, not penny pinch. That's also, why they hire expensive engineers rather than offshored developers, because speed matters more than cost.

As for non-tech companies. Their demand is more stable in the long run, but they are not tolerant of outages. Amazon cannot have its servers go down during a big sale, too many physical ongoing costs that gets wasted for every second the central nervous system is down. So the cloud is good for its reliability.

Your power, water and gas supply also come from the 'cloud'. If anything, localized computing devices (Phones + PCs) are significantly more popular than localized power generation/water treatment (garage diesel generator/wells).

Historically, the main economic impetus for centralized government, is to coordinate the construction of irrigation infrastructure. The more dependent a society is on one big river (Ancient China/Egypt), the more centralized it becomes.

Investors are certainly not happy with stock dilution through the options.

Its also a make or break period for generative AI. If I was at Nvidia and owned stock options, I'd certainly give it my all to ensure Nvidia can make hay while the sun shines.

15 FPS is also irrelevant. Gaming GPUs are going to be dominated by raytracing power for the future, once you go raytracing you can't go back.

Its very very good to name these scams with strong language.

It reminds of people to not be the 'pig' to be butchered, to know that their greed or lust could be manipulated by an organization behind that screen, and that they are a pig walking into a slaughterhouse willingly.