‘Dark ships’ emerge from the shadows of the Nord Stream mystery

https://www.wired.com/story/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-dark-ships/

84 86 4 years ago

habibur• 4 years ago

That proves the explosion was deliberate. But who did it, is something that every state head says they know but no one is talking.

computerfriend2• 4 years ago

No it doesn't.

exabrial• 4 years ago

This is correct; Circumstantial evidence, which is a clue, not a conclusion. We need to keep collecting information.

I think the obvious conclusion is a false flag operation, but again, all evidence is circumstantial.

fuoqi10• 4 years ago

>That proves the explosion was deliberate.
No it doesn't.

No one denies that the explosions are an act of sabotage. How do you imagine non-deliberate explosions happening approximately at the same time and of such power as to cause seismic sensors to reliably detect them?

afrcnc• 4 years ago

It was Russia. Even toddlers know it was Russia, ffs. They just wanted out of the German gas supply contract. Ffs, they ran "winter is coming" ads on social media for a purpose. They've warned Europe they'd turn the gas off if they helped Ukraine. Where have you been living?

Doxin• 4 years ago

So why not just turn the tap off instead?

lgvln• 4 years ago

It seems like it is common for military vessels to turn off their AIS regularly, presumably to hide their movements.

The USS Fitzgerald had its AIS turned off right outside of Tokyo, another busy shipping lane, when it collided with a container ship. [0]

Interestingly, the corresponding Wikipedia page of the collision is omits the AIS factor completely. [1]

[0] https://maritime-executive.com/article/fitzgerald-made-20-kn...

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Fitzgerald_and_MV_ACX_Cr...

bergie• 4 years ago

Yep. Military, coast guard are both often without AIS. Actually, I think the only times I’ve seen military vessels with AIS on has been during some courtesy visits to other countries. The AIS static data is often not super useful (I think I saw a carrier reporting itself as something like “Uswarship03”).

Fishing boats reputedly run without AIS as well to hide their (potentially illegal) activities.

Then there are obviously pleasure craft that are not required to have AIS. But at least in the southern Baltic, most seem to carry a transponder.

vintermann2• 4 years ago

They can also spoof it, as the article suggests. Since it's rather suspicious when you suddenly turn off the transponder, I would certainly assume the sabotaging ship could have had a "cover story" in a nearby position.

ALittleLight• 4 years ago

Can't they just track the ships backwards in time to see wherever they left from? Or find the last time they used their transponders and see what they were flagged as?

I also don't really understand the practice of calling it a "mystery". Yes, after Biden threatened to unilaterally end the pipeline, and Blinken reiterated the threat, "someone" blew up the pipeline. But wait! Even more mysteriously the US (and allies) is the only party with a clear benefit from blowing up the pipeline. Yes, I wonder who could've done such a thing...

kneel3• 4 years ago

Are you sure Russian military didn't travel all the way down the Baltic Strait, past the competing norwegian pipeline, and blow up their own pipelines?

chillwaves• 4 years ago

How does the US benefit?

Russia had already shut down the pipeline and proven to be unreliable partner, and facing heavy sanctions.

It's not like the US needed the pipeline destroyed in order to be in the position to supply LNG to Europe.

flanflan3• 4 years ago

If the pipeline was shut off it could presumably be turned back on. If the pipeline was blown up that changes things. At a time when much of the world is looking toward China and Russia instead of the US, Europe has been forced to be more dependent on the US.

fuoqi10• 4 years ago

Are you serious? The NS/NS2 pipelines were a constant temptation for Germany and a good leverage for Russia. Before the pipelines got blown up we have seen quite sizable protests in Germany with demands to open NS2 and find some compromise with Russia.

By physically removing capability to transport gas from Russia to Germany, US not only secures fat margins for several years (at the very least until new LNG sources become available), but also significantly reduces probability of Germany acting independently in the near term, even if energy situation becomes critical. Don't forget that the gas storage numbers do not show the whole picture. A lot of energy-intensive industry got shut down and will not reopen in the near future.

Beltalowda• 4 years ago

But we can ask the same about Russia: how do they benefit? If there is any benefit to Russia then I'm not seeing it, beyond some vague and essentially meaningless chest-beating. And the pipeline was valuable to Russia, even when turned off, as it was a reasonably effective piece of leverage that's now just gone.

I'd be surprised if the US was involved because the thing could backfire massively it were to come out they were behind it, and it's just not worth the risk. But Russia is not really an "obvious" suspect either IMO. My best guess is that it's an irrational act from an irrational regime (Putin) as a kind of "fuck you".

j00573• 4 years ago

The potential downside for Russia to blow up the Nordstream pipelines is: it would require some investment to repair the pipeline in the event Russian-German relations would improve, Germany's security outlook on purchasing Russian gas would flip 180 degrees and there would be peace in Ukraine. In other words, pipeline or not, Russia won't be selling gas to Germany anytime soon, so there's really not a lot of downside to blowing up a useless pipeline. And it's easy to deny too, as you and others point out: why would Russia blow up their own pipeline?

Here's why: the upside for Russia is getting European NATO countries to point fingers at each other, accusing Poland or USA or Great Britain of (nearly) violating Denmark's territorial integrity. Creating distrust inside NATO is a pretty useful strategic result!

The line of 'why would Russia blow up their own pipeline' is terribly simple-minded.

vasac• 4 years ago

Why stop there? Maybe Martians blew it as now humans are pointing fingers at each other which is a pretty useful strategic result.

fuoqi10• 4 years ago

You are forgetting that repairing the pipelines is not easy and longer they stay in sea water, less likely it can be done reliably due to corrosion. Also secretly blowing up a pipeline in effectively NATOs backwater is easier said than done for Russia (remember the Nordic countries blaming Russian subs for suspicious sonar readings?), meanwhile for UK/US it's much easier.

lostlogin• 4 years ago

It also means that a Putin replacement can’t easily put things back how they were.

The side of this that is most opaque is the Russian one.

*it was never going to be easy, but it’s harder now.

kneel3• 4 years ago

This is incredible mental gymnastics.

Occam's razor provides a better explanation, the West did it because it handicaps a rival power.

gorgoiler• 4 years ago

To your first point: when the cargo ship Arctic Sea disappeared in the late 2000s, people were asking similar questions about why it couldn’t just be found by looking at satellite images. I heard someone smart on the radio say that using a satellite to find a missing ship in open water is like using a pair of binoculars to find a set of car keys in a field.

cpsns• 4 years ago

It’s only a mystery to those willingly blind, for fear “their side” did a bad thing and not the enemy.

MrBuddyCasino• 4 years ago

Its Covid lab leak theory reloaded. There is one plausible theory that Occam Razors well but is inconvenient, and competing convoluted ones. This will only further decrease trust in the media and governments, „you can’t fool all the people all the time“.

surfsvammel• 4 years ago

Dark ships? If this was Russias doing, or the US, why not send submarines to do something like this?

I don’t buy it.

narag5• 4 years ago

Is it doable with submarines? What would you do, torpedo the pipes?

Assuming you want to plant charges, I've seen mini-subs attached to bigger submarines, but it was a movie (Red October), so no idea if that's really a thing.

Otherwise, what do you do? Can divers be deployed from a submarine?

xoxxala• 4 years ago

There are subs specifically designed for these kind of special operations.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Jimmy_Carter

morsch• 4 years ago

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dry_deck_shelter

cwillu• 4 years ago

The DSRV from the book and movie is real: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mystic-class_deep-submergenc...

RaiausderDose• 4 years ago

http://www.hisutton.com/Belgorod-Class-Submarine.html

The guy makes these cutaway of the subs with MS Paint

http://www.hisutton.com/Spy%20Sub%20-%20Project%2010831%20Lo...

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Intervention-Underwater-Dron...

Video about seabed-warfare

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2H_tFKT9EXU

these are Russian subs / AUVs , very cool stuff.

masswerk2• 4 years ago

According to some experts it may have been done using mines and divers deployed from a sub. (The use of mines is apparently somewhat medieval in this context, as there are better methods for an experienced team.) Given the density of sensor networks in the area, you'd probably need a really quiet sub, something like the German Type 212 / 212A, including export models and license builds. I guess, the Russians have something similar. (Not an expert myself by any means.) So there is quite a number of candidates in the vicinity.

P.S.: With regard to these sensor networks, I guess, the "dark" surface vessels weren't big news for the military in the area.

neftaly• 4 years ago

A rusty tanker or cargo ship with a dozen mercs and a ROV is probably way cheaper and has plausible deniability compared to a navy submarine.

lonelyasacloud• 4 years ago

The destruction was a message; back off or your internet cables, gas and oil pipelines will be destroyed. Why put any more resources into the message than is necessary for propaganda purposes?

chaostheory2• 4 years ago

nice submarine PR article for SpaceKnow

notacoward• 4 years ago

Nice "submarine" pun. :)

chaostheory2• 4 years ago

Not sure if I understood, but how is it a pun?

http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html

dmix• 4 years ago

We have 38 specific algorithms that can detect military equipment

Just trying to imagine the real-time data feeds of Russian military gear deployments that Ukraine gets from NATO.

Russia has a long history of operating satellites and they have plenty of skilled software engineers as well. But I have a feeling it's hard to match the level of funding / ability brought to fore by the west.

Having a constant accurate picture of where counter-battery radar is, where SAM/AA-radars are deployed, etc could massively increase survivability of high-value vehicles like HIMARs and their limited set of aircraft.

borissk3• 4 years ago

Very few skilled software engineers work for Russia's military industry. In general the level of corruption in Russia is equal to an average African country and in military, where there's less visibility to the public, corruption is even higher. It's all about siphoning budget money into private pockets.

throwawayit1234• 4 years ago

In general the level of corruption in Russia is equal to an average African country

Painting with an awfully broad brush are we?

milemi• 4 years ago

What a ridiculous article. Kudos to WIRED for digging deep to let us know what the people who did this have to say about this mystery of mysteries.

BlinkenBlinken• 4 years ago

Interesting topic indeed.

I think which ever perpetrator executed the operation to destroy the pipelines know about these ways of detecting objects using various satellite imagery (surface only) and try to avoid being detected.

Question: what about sub surface data? Which detect anomalies at ground level of the area. Question: who benefits?

Further more the inability of the various countries to work together is remarkable, at least in public. Trust no one?

IAmGraydon2• 4 years ago

When considering who might have done this, think about this quote:

"A people that no longer can believe anything cannot make up its mind. It is deprived not only of its capacity to act but also of its capacity to think and to judge. And with such a people you can then do what you please.” – Hannah Arendt, 1978

In three short sentences, this is a complete description of Russia's disinformation goals, and has been their MO in the war they've been waging on the West for over a decade. If you're wondering why they would blow Nord Stream up, it's to make everyone suspicious of everyone else, sowing distrust and making everyone unable to believe in the foundations of the alliance. They didn't do it to frame one country. They did it with the intention of it remaining unsolved. This is the same reason Russian trolls spread conspiracy theories in social media circles. It's the same reason they say one thing and do another. They want everyone confused and therefore weak.

The only way to defeat this tactic to to make it known and to help the public learn to defend against it. This has got to be a priority in the West, but we're far more focused on the distraction of conventional war and not focused at all on the real danger in front of us.

‘Dark ships’ emerge from the shadows of the Nord Stream mystery

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