Malaysia B772 has crashed near Donetsk

http://avherald.com/h?article=47770f9d&opt=0

by jahaja • 12 years ago

373 302 12 years ago

etimberg• 12 years ago

Reuters quoting Interfax reports that it was brought down by a surface to air missile. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/489795394411712513

doe88• 12 years ago

I'm wondering, if it is confirmed it is a missile, are there any precedent of civilian plane shot-down like that in modern history (post WWII)?

Edit: Thanks great replies!

wooster• 12 years ago

Yes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

nrau• 12 years ago

There absolutely is precedence for this.

The US shot down an Iranian airliner in 1988: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

And the Russians shot down a Korean airliner in 1983: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

spullara• 12 years ago

Plenty of them:

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_in...

pfg• 12 years ago

Looks like there were quite a few incidents: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_airliner_shootdown_inci...

(The only one I've heard of before was Iran Air Flight 655)

dfkf2• 12 years ago

Iran Air Flight 655, Siberia Airlines Flight 1812, and of course Korean Air Lines Flight 007, but it was shot down by air-to-air missile.

claudius2• 12 years ago

There are numerous examples, although “like that” is of course a difficult requirement, given that we don’t know what happened yet :)

Some examples (in no particular ordering):

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libyan_Arab_Airlines_Flight_114
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_902 (air-to-air, not ground-to-air missile)
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Rhodesia_Flight_825
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Rhodesia_Flight_827
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007 (air-to-air, not ground-to-air missile)
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_TAAG_Angola_Airlines_Boeing_737_crash

Ecio782• 12 years ago

La Strage di Ustica ("Ustica Massacre"): http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerolinee_Itavia_Flight_870

After more than 30 years we still don't know for sure what happened...

thom• 12 years ago

It wasn't so long ago that Ukraine shot a Russian airliner down (perhaps accidentally, perhaps not):

http://www.nytimes.com/2001/10/14/world/after-9-days-ukraine...

magnacartic• 12 years ago

So, the blame is on Russia. https://www.facebook.com/butusov.yuriy/posts/802946763078955

dfkf2• 12 years ago

Yuriy Butusov is a Ukrainian chairborne commandо. His opinion on all things Russia is known in advance and so is irrelevant.

Alupis10• 12 years ago

Reports are stating they believe it may have been shot down.

jonnycowboy• 12 years ago

Last known position right around Ukraine/Russian border.

justnotsure2• 12 years ago

This. All I need to know what happened.

toyg3• 12 years ago

I wouldn't jump to conclusions if I were you -- from the actual track record[1], it looks like the middle of the country, rather than near the border. It's not even over one of the "troubled" eastern regions, nowhere near "rebels" or Russian troops.

[1] https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/489795658879348737/...

levosmetalo4• 12 years ago

Yep. It's clear that USA shot it down so they can blame the Russians. And Ukrainian officials will gladly confirm. </sarcasm>

eliben• 12 years ago

Isn't the Donetsk area a war zone now? Why do commercial flights fly over it?

ddoolin2• 12 years ago

First thing that came to my mind, too.

lsh1238• 12 years ago

They closed airspace up to FL260 (I believe). The 777 was probably at FL360 or above.

unchocked• 12 years ago

What is the smallest SAM that can reach that altitude?

john_b2• 12 years ago

Interfax claims it was flying at 10km: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/489794112212959232

mikeash11• 12 years ago

Open doesn't necessarily mean "excellent choice for flying through" though. I'm sure it was allowed, but it doesn't seem like a good idea.

k-mcgrady7• 12 years ago

Especially considering the fact non-commercial planes have been getting shot down in the last few days in that area.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28345039

peterjancelis• 12 years ago

Interfax said it was shot down. Russia - via their ambassador at the United Nations - denied involvement already.

Let's hope this plane won't be the Franz Ferdinand 100 years later.

Edit: I am talking about the US-Russian relationship deteriorating because of the (blamed) intent, not the number of casualties or the strength of the Malaysian army.

Edit 2: Thanks for the links on previous situations like this. Reassuring.

saraid216• 12 years ago

Let's hope this plane won't be the Franz Ferdinand 100 years later.

I don't see how that's remotely possible.

sspiff• 12 years ago

May depend on whose citizens were on the plan, and who thinks they can benefit from joining in on the fun.

I can't think of any nation powerful enough to rival Russia wanting to risk this level of conflict today though.

pjc502• 12 years ago

It's overwhelmingly likely to have been shot down by "Ukrainian rebels", who are Russian-backed.

It's not going to be the end of the world unless someone very high profile was on board, but it will further worsen relations with Russia. Malaysia isn't exactly a nuclear superpower. A US airliner would be a lot closer to end of the world territory.

Number of civilian casualties is roughly comparable to those in the past few weeks in Gaza.

slg• 12 years ago

Number of civilian casualties is roughly comparable to those in the past few weeks in Gaza.

That comparison is interesting. What is it about planes that draws so much attention when something like this happens? It is barely news when a couple hundred civilians die on the ground in a war zone, but put the same civilians in the air and the whole world pays attention.

EDIT: Some people have mentioned that Gaza is all over the news but I would make the argument that the civilian casualties aren't what is making news. What is making news is the eruption of hostilities in the first place. For example, compare the coverage of Gaza to Iraq, Ukraine, etc. There have been several times more civilian casualties in numerous other active war zones this month, but they aren't new conflicts so news agencies aren't focusing on them.

mikecb2• 12 years ago

A US congressman was killed in 1983 when a USSR jet shot down a Korean air flight, and it didn't result in the end of the world.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

Florin_Andrei• 12 years ago

If it was shot down, it was done with some pretty high-grade weaponry. You can't touch a passenger plane at cruise altitude with a shoulder-mounted RPG.

look_lookatme2• 12 years ago

The flight was on a codesharing agreement with KLM. Likely a very international set of passengers on that plane.

https://twitter.com/NicholasCollins/status/48980231956832665...

I don't see what your other point has to do with this event?

mladenkovacevic3• 12 years ago

OK since you shared your theory here is mine.

This is overwhelmingly likely a false flag operation performed by CIA and the new Ukrainian government to further deligitimize the ethnic Russian population in Eastern Ukraine and put additional pressure on Putin to denounce them or face the disapproval of the entire Western world.

But let's go with your overwhelmingly more sensible explanation since I am clearly just a KGB paid astroturfer and a crazy conspiracy theorist to boot and nothing like that would ever happen in the real world.

shakermakr• 12 years ago

You seen how many people have died in eastern Ukraine recently? 478 civilian deaths, 1000+ injured. 10,000s of people fleeing across the border to Russia. I have family there in kramatorsk. Most action is carried out by the Ukrainian army trying to rid cities from the separatists. Disgraceful. http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21607852-battle-continu...

levosmetalo4• 12 years ago

Let's hope this plane won't be the Franz Ferdinand 100 years later.

Don't worry. Malaysia can join forces with Thailand, and then together attack all of their neighbours, but that would hardly make an impact to the "world order".

ceejayoz6• 12 years ago

You could say the same thing about Austria going after Serbia.

spuiszis• 12 years ago

This also reminds me of the the sinking of the Lusitania by German u-boats in WWI. http://www.gilderlehrman.org/history-by-era/world-war-i/reso...

blantonl• 12 years ago

Regardless of what caused this plane to go down, how Malaysia Airlines survives as a company going forward will be study in crisis management for many years.

alextgordon2• 12 years ago

It may be much more damaging to them. As far as anybody knows, MH370 wasn't the fault of Malaysia Airlines.

This is a whole another level. If they really approved a flight plan to fly over a war zone... I just can't... WTF.

ceejayoz6• 12 years ago

Passenger planes fly over Iraq and Afghanistan regularly, without incident. There was not much reason to believe Ukraine or the rebels would be idiotic enough to target civilian passenger planes in this manner.

saryant6• 12 years ago

Lots of airlines were flying over separatist regions of Ukraine. SQ333 was just a few miles away from MH17 according to Flightradar24.

I've flown over Afghanistan on my way to India, didn't bother me in the slightest.

cylinder2• 12 years ago

Get on FlightAware and search routes between SE Asia and Europe. Many, if not most, go over Ukraine. Here's an example from a recent Singapore Airlines flight: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/SIA318/history/20140717/0...

beachstartup• 12 years ago

they're probably going to retire the brand. i don't think you can recover from 2 crashes in the same year.

this can be done by simply liquidating the airline and walking away, or by buying/merging another firm and operating under the new name.

see: valujet

lsh1238• 12 years ago

5th hull-loss and 2nd crash with fatalities for 777.

EDIT: I am not saying that 777 should withstand SAM attack. However these numbers are remarkable and show the reliability of the plane that have been in operations for almost 20 years and flew in all corners of the world.

crazypyro2• 12 years ago

Hard to design passenger planes for what is a (suspected) rocket though....

modoc• 12 years ago

Hard to blame the airframe if it really was a SAM....

lsh1238• 12 years ago

It just shows how reliable is 777

k-mcgrady7• 12 years ago

Some interesting info on the speculation it was shot down:

A defence expert has told the BBC that shooting down a plane at 10,000m (9.7 miles) would have required a long- range surface-to-air missile - possibly guided by radar.

That suggests it is unlikely it could have been downed by a portable air defence missile, or Manpad, which has a much shorter range.

The only other possibility is for an aircraft at that height to be downed by a fighter carrying air-to-air missiles.

The US will have access to satellite imagery that should be able to identify ultra-violet plumes if a long-range surface-to-air missile was fired.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28354856

Edit:

Amateur video reportedly showing aftermath of the crash (from a distance):

http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2014/jul/17/malaysia-...

toomuchtodo• 12 years ago

Flight track: https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/489795658879348737/...

atwebb2• 12 years ago

I know it's early but Sky is reporting that Ukraine confirms it was an attack:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/489796240163745793

pdabbadabba3• 12 years ago

Ukrainian officials may have said as much -- and they may be right -- but given Ukraine's obvious interest in this situation, it may be a stretch to say that they are capable, on their own, of "confirming" anything about it.

smoorman10243• 12 years ago

Alternate speculation

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_29/Donetsk-militia-tak...

Air-To-Air Missile seems highly unlikely.

Rumors abound that Militia groups were bragging about downing a Ukrainian Transport

http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1325017

Take everything with a grain of salt!

drzaiusapelord2• 12 years ago

Take everything with a grain of salt!

That's rich coming from the guy linking to Russian state controlled media.

dragonwriter3• 12 years ago

A defence expert has told the BBC that shooting down a plane at 10,000m (9.7 miles)

First off, 10,000m is 6.2 miles, not 9.7 miles.

philip1209• 12 years ago

Perhaps the defence expert was misintrepreted -

If the plane is 6.2 miles on the ground away and flying at 30K feet (5.7 miles), then basic pythagorean geometry says that a missile has to travel sqrt(6.2^2+5.7^2) = 8.4 miles, which is closer to the number they give?

drzaiusapelord2• 12 years ago

There have been reports of this bad boy deployed in Russian controlled areas of Ukraine:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system

This could take out a 777 trivially either. I wouldn't put it past Putin to give control of this to his proxy soldiers or fuck up trying to shoot down what they detected as a Uke fighter or cargo jet. This is the system the Uke military has been blaming on shooting down their jets.

k-mcgrady7• 12 years ago

I also heard a report that rebels were reported to have access to a BUK.

darthgoogle11• 12 years ago

Why so quick to blame the Russians?

Would you not put it past the Ukraine backed neo-nazis, which even the state-funded BBC now admit exist, trying to widen the conflict and drag third parties into the fight?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28329329

downandout2• 12 years ago

Ukraine interior minister confirms plane shot down, but claim they didn't pull the trigger. They believe it was Russian separatists.

Alupis10• 12 years ago

Just curious why the US would play any role in this situation... it's a Malaysian plane, over Ukraine, coming from the EU. Seems like the EU should be tasking their satellite's, or even Russia.

cyorir• 12 years ago

It's important to have as many sides involved as possible - I wouldn't trust US satellites alone or Russian satellites alone, but I would trust all satellites together. Russia, US, and EU could all try to spin this story in their own ways.

tom_scrace• 12 years ago

Probably because the US has by far the most extensive surveillance satellite programme in the world. Not many countries operate surveillance sats at all. France has a few. Israel and Japan have some. I know Britain has none at all and has a deal with the US to access its material.

metric10• 12 years ago

The plane was manufactured by Boeing, a US company. See http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/foreign.aspx

wil421• 12 years ago

I believe certain agencies in the US (FAA or NTSB etc...) help out other countries when planes crash. Smaller countries may not have the man power or skills necessary to handle a plane crash investigation. Especially if its an America plane, if they find a defect they will ground the fleet (787 Dreamliner for instance).

I have also heard sometimes countries call in the US or whatever EU agency to consult along with their personnel.

For satellites, wouldn't you want the most accurate data anyway? Using US, EU and Russian (even China/India) imagery would probably be better than pointing a finger at the right country/agency and saying we should use their images because the plane crashed in their country.

rblatz• 12 years ago

Plane was US made, and I'm sure there was at least one US citizen on board.

richardwhiuk3• 12 years ago

You can't task a satelite to monitor for an explosion after the fact...

easytiger3• 12 years ago

I think the US would be pretty interested at any civilian airline being taken out... not least one carrying lots of US Nationals.

mullingitover7• 12 years ago

It's highly likely that this was shot down by terrorists currently fighting in eastern Ukraine. I seem to recall the US being interested in fighting terrorism.

edit: also, I bet dollars to donuts there were US citizens on the flight.

austenallred6• 12 years ago

Our startup lets you track the event in real-time, and has thousands of people actively confirming and refuting content as to its validity. There is a lot of fake info floating around on Twitter (and even some mainstream media organizations), so act with caution. http://grasswire.com/#/newsfeeds/1e4b388a-8ea7-461d-8acf-ba1...

Confirmed: Malaysia Airlines confirms it has lost contact with #MH17 from Amsterdam. Last known position over Ukraine. Was shot down, all passengers dead.

The pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine deny shooting it down, and are blaming the Ukrainian armed forces.

The Ukraine Defense Ministries claim it was shot down by a BUK missile, which the separatists do have, and it would reach. We also have this interesting translation of Ukraine rebel leader’s VKontakte (Facebook) post regarding another downed airplane: http://pastie.org/9400258. (I translated it, so forgive me for any inaccuracy).

ogig• 12 years ago

grasswire link has some explicit images, be warned.

shitgoose3• 12 years ago

Could you provide the link to original "rebel leader’s VKontakte (Facebook) post"?

Alupis10• 12 years ago

Why was this civilian plane over Ukraine to begin with?

I seem to recall (can't find the link now) that Ukraine declared their airspace closed to civilian aircraft after the Ukrainian Troop Transport plane was shot down recently.

Even if the airspace was open, it seems highly risky to fly over a battle-zone anyhow where direct radio communication with troops on the ground may not be possible, and opens a wide door for an accidental grounding, if not on purpose.

grey-area• 12 years ago

Interesting, the google cache of that post still works:

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?hl=en&q=cache%3...

and the google translation is as follows:

Message from the militia. "In the area Torrez just downed plane An-26, lying somewhere in the mine" Progress ". Warned same - not to fly in "our sky." And here is the video the confirmation of the next "ptichkopada." Birdie fell for waste heap, the residential sector is not caught. Peaceful people do not suffer. And also have information about the second downed aircraft, like the Su. "

even though the original post has been deleted from VK

http://vk.com/wall-57424472_7256

hackplus• 12 years ago

Is grasswire your startup? What does it do?

powertower2• 12 years ago

The Ukraine Defense Ministries claim it was shot down by a BUK missile, which the separatists do have, and it would reach.

Unless I'm mistaken from the description, it takes 3 vehicles, each serving a separate purpose, to utilize the BUK missile system - with a complex series of operations and coordination between all the components (that can only be done by trained operators).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/malaysia-airlines...

The evidence against the anti-Kiev militia seems to only show the missile vehicle component. And it's unknown if it was even fully operational (aside from being drive-able on the roads).

We also have this interesting translation of Ukraine rebel leader’s VKontakte (Facebook) post regarding another downed airplane

If my understanding is correct (from his other posts), the original info/report came from a post on their social site, where someone saw a plane coming down and assumed it must have been a military plane shut down by their side - and promoted it as such.

lsh1238• 12 years ago

This is not the first case of missiles hitting a plane in Ukraine in recent history:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812

mladenkovacevic3• 12 years ago

Somebody really really wants this war to proceed and won't take no for an answer.

qwerta2• 12 years ago

This just sucks. Ukraine used to be very nice and safe country for backpacking. Now it will turn into Somalia.

nsxwolf• 12 years ago

Well, shit. I'm sorry if this ruins your backpacking plans.

gk1• 12 years ago

Really? This is what bothers you the most about this war?

I don't think you'll have any trouble finding other poor countries that haven't yet erupted in full-out war.

mkr-hn• 12 years ago

As with all tragedies, be skeptical of early reports. Especially those that identify a cause.

yuvadam2• 12 years ago

Unrelated but relevant: TWA 800 crashed off the coast of NY on July 17, 1996, 18 years ago.

[Why the downvotes? Clearly stated _unrelated_. Just a stupid fact.]

k-mcgrady7• 12 years ago

That popped into my head as soon as I saw this story as I was reading about TWA 800 recently. Strange coincidence considering how rare an event this is.

yuvadam2• 12 years ago

Same here. Just this morning I recalled TWA 800, the date always pops up from the calendar, I can't forget it.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

The birthday paradox tells us that we'd expect to see coincidences like this after less than 30 crashes.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

"Unrelated but relevant" is an oxymoron.

Edit: it occurs to me that you might legitimately not understand the downvotes. TWA 800 was the center of a lot of conspiracy theories about it being shot down by a US Navy missile, up to and including purported eyewitness accounts of a missile plume. Drawing the comparison between what looks likely to be a shootdown and a relatively mundane fuel tank explosion that spawned lots of conspiracy theories about a shootdown is a good way to sound like a conspiracy nut.

k-mcgrady7• 12 years ago

I was also down voted. Had no idea about the conspiracy theories (I'm not American). Just saw a documentary about it recently.

Someone12342• 12 years ago

It never ceases to surprise me how Americans can turn any international story into one about America or how it somehow links to an American event.

The TWA incident couldn't be less similar to this or have any real similarities at all. They both involve aircraft crashes, granted, but that is as far as it goes.

Oh and before you claim you weren't trying to Americanify this incident let me point out that there have been four commercial airline crashes on July 17th. TWA 800 is not even the most recent.

July 17th 2007 – TAM Airlines Flight 3054, an Airbus A320, crashes at Congonhas-São Paulo Airport, Brazil, killing all 187 people on board and 12 on the ground. Yet you bring up one from 1964, why is that?

look_lookatme2• 12 years ago

Are you sure that yuvadam is American?

mindrag5• 12 years ago

You're an ass. Nobody is trying to "Americanify" the event. They are simply remembering another event that is linked to the current one by coincidence. The anti-American knee-jerk reaction is 10x worse than any "Americanification".

mp4box• 12 years ago

looks like this is the flight

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/MAS17/history/20140717/10...

brainless• 12 years ago

Is it too much to speculate that Malaysia Airlines or Malaysia is being targeted?

Two flights in a year. Bringing a plane down from 33,000 feet is not that easy.

eclipxe• 12 years ago

Yes, it is too much to speculate that.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.

korzun4• 12 years ago

Malaysia Airlines should be shut down.

They can't keep track of their planes and can't properly investigate crashes.

Now they are sending a plane over an active war zone with air space restrictions (hint: even if its restricted to 10K, flying at 30K is not OK).

Feels like they are running a amateur shit show over there with little to no regulations.

I can picture bunch of ex-cab drivers who are no in charge of plane routing green lighting this flight in between their 100th smoke break.

jlmorton2• 12 years ago

Malaysia Airlines is a respected, professional airline. We have no idea what happened to either flight, and it's rather unfair to suggest Malaysia Airlines should be "shut down."

catkin• 12 years ago

I think that's the point - nobody has any idea what happened to these two Malaysia Airlines flights and /that's/ why they should be shut down.

EDIT: to clarify, I don't believe Malaysia Airlines should be shut down, just trying to clarify OPs comment.

ddoolin2• 12 years ago

We definitely have a pretty good idea what happened to this one.

I don't think they should be shut down at all, just stating. Both /seem/ to have been mostly out of the control of the airline, aside from flying over the area, which MH isn't the only one doing.

korzun4• 12 years ago

Malaysia Airlines is a respected, professional airline.

Okay.

On Friday, Malaysia Airlines CEO released some new information that could bolster the fire theory. Four days after denying that the plane had carried any hazardous materials, the CEO admitted that it was carrying a shipment of lithium-ion batteries in its cargo hold.

Also please don't call a company professional if it's sending planes over war zone with 200+ people on board.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

The reaction of "WTF, they shouldn't be flying over a war zone" only requires knowing that the plane was actually flying over a war zone, which is undisputed. It doesn't actually require this crash to be a result of that, it's merely a trigger for discussion and observation.

saryant6• 12 years ago

At the time the plane lost contact, Singapore Air had other flights near the MH flight, as did other airlines. Not sure MH can be blamed for that as they aren't the only airline flying in the area.

http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/mh17/#3d6095b http://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/sq333#3d3c1a6

Also, commercial flights from Europe to India fly over Afghanistan every day, no one is concerned about that.

korzun4• 12 years ago

I can't load those links but the better example would be to see which carriers avoided the no-fly zone.}

Also, I don't think it's fair to compare Afghanistan and their weak and limited S2A technology to technology used by Russia and Ukraine.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

Afghanistan doesn't have an antagonistic near-superpower supplying sophisticated arms.

smackfu• 12 years ago

Another Singapore flight that is even closer: http://flightaware.com/live/flight/SIA351

stygiansonic• 12 years ago

I don't think any commercial airliners fly at "30K". The last updates from Flight Aware show the airliner at 33,000 ft or about 10 km, which is a pretty standard cruising altitude.

pessimizer• 12 years ago

K stands for 1000.

spacefight• 12 years ago

Avherald might be slow, copy is at http://www.aeroinside.com/item/4365/malaysia-b772-near-donet...

dm24• 12 years ago

Does anyone have any idea what types of terrorist controlled surface-to-air missiles would be able to take out this aircraft?

Would any of these systems have prevented it?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_Guardian

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CAMPS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flight_Guard

BTW, according to the Guardian article a MANPAD can be purchased for as little as $5,000.

Apparently this was something else such as http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system

I know this happened before, but shooting down civilian aircraft cannot be tolerated.

tdobson• 12 years ago

Some media reports say (citing official ukrian reports and AP visuals in the region) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system

dm24• 12 years ago

That's what this article says: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-ukraine-crash-a...

What is a "Pro-Russian militant"? At what point are they considered part of the Russian armed forces?

mikecb2• 12 years ago

Report say it was flying too high for a manpad. These countermeasures wouldn't work against a Buk or other radar guided missile.

sparkman55• 12 years ago

This airliner was flying at a nice cruising altitude of 10,000m - the man-portable surface-to-air missiles (MANPADS [1]) that the systems you linked to can't easily lock-on to planes that high (only about 6,000m according to the wiki), because they rely on infrared tracking of the plane's engines and exhaust. The defensive systems you listed work by shooting out flares that confuse infrared tracking systems, I believe.

It's more likely that this plane was shot down by a radar-guided system like the BUK [2], at least one of which was captured by Ukrainian separatists recently.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MANPADS

[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system

qvolte• 12 years ago

Not sure whether this is true

https://twitter.com/ReutersWorld/statuses/489795402892591104

pinkskip• 12 years ago

This is so tragic, A second MAS plane involved in an incident in 2014. Thoughts are with the loved ones and families of the people onboard MH17

Oculus• 12 years ago

History always repeats itself: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

micahgoulart• 12 years ago

First pictures of the downed plane are already showing up on Twitter. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BswmWPwIIAAAZi1.jpg:large

yaakov34• 12 years ago

Ukraine has previously closed all airspace over the east of the country to civilian flights.

I know that lynch mobs form very quickly online, especially to attack unpopular people, but in this case, the responsibility of directing a civilian plane into closed airspace over a rebel-held region where a vicious battle with tanks, airplanes, and artillery has raged for months is shared between two parties: the Ukrainian air traffic control (the airplane crossed the length of the country before being shot down) and the pilots.

Now, these rebels may be the worst people in the world since Cain - I am not taking up the politics of this at all - but even if they did shoot this plane down, they acted reasonably given their military situation: they have no aviation of their own and they are bombed frequently by Ukrainian jets, while no civilian traffic has flown anywhere near them since April.

downandout2• 12 years ago

Pictures of wreckage:

http://t.co/2o0SGVnjbE

http://t.co/z4byDeovcp

ulfw• 12 years ago

Who would have thought that the safest route from Europe to Asia would be via Iran? (Wars in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine)

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AMS-IST-THR-KUL,+AMS-KUL

scarmig• 12 years ago

Not too surprising. After all, the only passenger airliner that's been shot down in Iranian history was an Iranian one by the USA.

steven2012• 12 years ago

From StratFor:

Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur with 280 passengers and 15 crew onboard went down over Shakhtyorsk, Ukraine 50 kilometers (20 miles) from the Russo-Ukrainian border on July 17, an aviation industry source said, Interfax reported. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry said that pro-Russia separatists shot it down with a 9K37 Buk surface-to-air missile system, while separatist leader Alexander Borodai accused Kiev's forces of shooting down the plane, Reuters reported. Kiev previously designated the areas of fighting in the east an "anti-terrorist operation" zone, limiting civilian flights to 7,900 meters (23,000 feet) and in compliance the flight was at 10,000 meters (33,000).

speeq• 12 years ago

First photos of debris: http://imgur.com/a/s7AkM

From the crash site (WARNING GRAPHIC / NSFL): https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BswpDkqIcAAp6Wp.jpg:orig

larkinrichards• 12 years ago

There was a call for a No Fly Zone over Donetsk on June 2nd[1], but it doesn't appear to have been implemented. Still, that should have been a warning to all airlines to steer clear.

I wouldn't want to blame Malaysia Airlines for this one, but I feel like the route planning tools should include indicators for all known active combat zones with the option to navigate around them.

[1] http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/zyuganov-calls-for-n...

sivers• 12 years ago

I'm scheduled to be on that exact same flight in 10 days, so I'm not thinking very clearly about this right now.

Can a cool disconnected mind give me a rational perspective on this?

Does logic dictate I have nothing to worry about? ("Lightning doesn't strike twice in the same place" argument.)

Or does logic say I would be smarter to lose some $$, and book a different airline and route? ("Lighting does strike twice in the same place" argument.)

Thoughts?

jarin2• 12 years ago

Lose some $$ and avoid flying over an area where radar guided surface to air missiles are known to hit civilian airliners.

ceejayoz6• 12 years ago

Airlines won't be flying in that area for a while, I'd imagine.

richardwhiuk3• 12 years ago

Your flight will have a different flight number - they get retired after a major incident :P

The air path for that flight is likely to be heavily monitored over the fortnight, so it's likely to be safer than normal

mrinterweb2• 12 years ago

If the plane was shot down over a very volatile region, I highly doubt there is any reassurance extra monitoring would do to provide for a plane's safety against surface to air missiles.

k-mcgrady7• 12 years ago

Anytime there is a incident with a plane the reaction always seems to be intense (bordering on over-reaction) so I seriously doubt any planes will be flying within 100 miles of Ukrainian airspace from this moment forward. I would probably fly if I were you but if you are really worried and can afford not to fly the peace of mind might be worth the loss of $$.

Edit:

Some airlines are already reacting:

"A statement from Virgin Airlines says it "will be re-routing a small number of our flights this evening"."

Alupis10• 12 years ago

Well, I thought Ukraine declared their airspace off-limits to civilian planes... so why was this plane over Ukraine anyways?

saryant6• 12 years ago

Airspace was only closed to 10,000ft. MH17 was at >30,000ft.

mikeash11• 12 years ago

You're still safer on that airliner than you are in your own bed. Anything newsworthy is rare by definition. If you want to worry, worry about getting hit by a drunk driver as you cross the street, or slipping in the shower and breaking your skull, or choking on your dinner.

anigbrowl6• 12 years ago

As has been explained before, when you're carrying out your normal daily activities you have a fair degree of control over your own safety and a sense of autonomy, plus there's a reasonable chance of being rescued/assisted in many contexts (eg if you are hit by a car on a busy street). When you're a passenger on a plane, you are largely helpless in the event that trouble strikes, however remote that possibility, and the probability of rescue is virtually nil. People's risk calculus is rationally altered by their aversion to helplessness and their wish to avoid stress.

Addressing first-order probabilities only provides half the picture.

sylvinus• 12 years ago

I think you shouldn't have too much to worry about because all international flights over this area will probably get re-routed for a while in the next few hours/days.

shubb• 12 years ago

It would be useful for someone who knows to confirm whether after an incident like this, airlines change the route that they send the planes. Taking a bit of a detour would seems sensible.

austenallred6• 12 years ago

Chances are they won't fly in the same location. Lufthansa has already rerouted flights scheduled to go over around the eastern Ukrainian airspace, I can't imagine Malaysian not following suit. It's not like they have the best track record at the moment.

UPDATE: The FAA just prohibited flying over that airspace. So I would be blown away if your plane continued flying there.

UPDATE: Air France now, too.

UPDATE: Even three Russian airlines are re-routing, which will be difficult for some flights heading west from Moscow. No word from Malaysian... they've probably got bigger fish to fry at the moment.

UPDATE: British Airways and Air Canada, too.

minikites• 12 years ago

blown away

freehunter2• 12 years ago

How far out does the FAA's jurisdiction go?

eik3_de• 12 years ago

I'm sure passenger planes will circuit that region from this day on, so chances of a similar event should be extremely low.

aragot• 12 years ago

You should find whether they'll change the flight route. I clearly remember my plane from DXB to NCE dodging Syria by less than 10km.

And Syria was not officially "at war".

badman_ting• 12 years ago

Call me names all day, I would never get on a flight with that airline. They should really just pack it in at this point.

"These events are still rare." OK, but if there's a turd in a bowl of 10,000 Skittles, I'm not eating any of them.

marcosdumay• 12 years ago

Civil wars like to strike always at the same place. But I see no reason why it would prefer any flight number or airline.

AnimalMuppet2• 12 years ago

It would "prefer" any airline stupid enough to continue flying over the war zone. One hopes that that is the null set.

rgj• 12 years ago

""Lighting does strike twice in the same place" argument"

For now the 'coincidence' of two Malaysian 777 aircraft going down within a few months is lighting striking twice.

jrs235• 12 years ago

So then, "Lightning doesn't strike thrice in the same place"

mkarr• 12 years ago

If you do decide to keep the ticket, you will probably have an entire couple of rows to yourself to stretch out on...

awj2• 12 years ago

To me, logic says you should call the airline and see specifically how they're rerouting the flight to avoid this kind of danger. If you can't get an answer, don't get a satisfactory answer, or don't know how to tell what answer would satisfy you, book another flight.

In general, flying is safer than either driving or walking in urban areas. But most flights don't happen over not-technically-but-actually-definitely war zones. So ... make sure whatever flight you're on avoids the area entirely.

ufmace2• 12 years ago

Logic says that, but somehow I doubt that you're going to get a useful answer from anyone you can reach about what route the flight is actually going to take 10 days from now.

scragg• 12 years ago

I would attempt to get a refund since you have a legit concern. A forward thinking manager might avoid the potential PR problem that lightning will strike twice and on top of that, denying concerned passengers refunds.

mdesq• 12 years ago

Statistically, you'll be absolutely fine either way even though I don't buy that "now is the safest time to fly the airline" crap. For myself, having recently flown the reverse flight (KL to Amsterdam) and a handful of other MH flights recently, I would lose the extra money and sleep better on another carrier. I'll be choosing other carriers for the foreseeable future.

Two of only three fatal 777 crashes ever were MH planes. They were both total losses and both in the last five months. The airline has some work to do.

seanmcdirmid• 12 years ago

Both under abnormal circumstances, most likely terrorism.

aarongray• 12 years ago

Didn't someone ask a question about flying over warzones on here recently? Seems like everyone told them not to worry, Manpad's can't reach a commercial airliner, so you have nothing to worry about. Ironic.

xentronium2• 12 years ago

"Rebels" have BUK mobile SAMs.

jackau• 12 years ago

Crazy world

vondur• 12 years ago

Supposed tweet from someone from the Pro Russian rebels: http://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bswg7UGCQAAtv47.jpg

Someone on slashdot translated it as:

"Near Torez (city) an An-26 airplane was just shot down, it crashed somewhere beyond "Progress" mine site. We warned beforehand - do not fly over "our zone". Here's another video proof of the next "birdfall". A birdie crashed down beyond terricon (mine excavation site), missed living areas. Population not harmed. We also allegedly have info on another SU-25 shot down".

If that's true, they have mistaken it for a transport plane and shot it down.

lsh1238• 12 years ago

As usual, we should wait for the results of official investigation. Right now all versions are equally possible: ground-to-air missile from either side, malfunctioning air-to-air missile on a fighter jet, UFO, ...

As many correctly pointed out, there is a civil war going on in this region. These days the military war also means propaganda war. Thus, there will be all kind of statements by "officials". Unless you want to join the propaganda war yourself, I would suggest that you do not repeat this crap and wait for investigation results.

clarky073• 12 years ago

How is this on page 3 with 344 points 4 hours in? Which moderator killed this? If this isn't news that people would want to know about I don't know what is.

neverminder• 12 years ago

It wouldn't be the first time. I've observed for quite some time now that even much more relevant articles get deep sixed.

noobermin• 12 years ago

It might have to do with some of the comments posted here.

altcognito• 12 years ago

So, Hacker News is not a "pure" news source. It's primarily tech news. Don't look for a conspiracy, as it's completely up to the moderators as to what stays on the front page. Effectively, it's curated. I like the mix here. Not everything has to be covered by a popular "news" site.

Malaysia B772 has crashed near Donetsk

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