Internet traffic in Iran increasing

https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d

by Cider9986 • 2 months ago

70 78 2 months ago

radar.cloudflare.com

mlmonkey• 2 months ago

I don't think the current regime has changed their policy out of the goodness of their hearts, or for the concerns of the citizenry. If I were to hazard a guess, I'm guessing it is so their army of digital burglars can wreak havoc on US sites, in retaliation for the bombings by the US. So I guess we can only expect more ransomware and more digital mayhem.

gpm• 2 months ago

The internet is a pretty critical economic tool. I'd imagine that a good portion of the reason is simply to let Iranian businesses function.

whyage• 2 months ago

You might be right; most of the traffic is bot-driven

lysace• 2 months ago

The more important aspect is that the regime now feels certain enough that they have killed enough of the internal opposition so that the security forces can handle rest even with open comms.

tptacek• 2 months ago

Iranian-sponsored threat actors have had network access throughout this entire conflict.

866-RON-0-FEZ• 2 months ago

Thanks for reminding everyone of the obvious. You'd think it wouldn't be necessary.

The popular theory that all Iranian internet was shut off like Johnny pulling the plug out of the socket in Airplane is simplistic and beyond ludicrous.

Laurel1234• 2 months ago

Wouldn't regime glow in the darks have open access already? You'd imagine they'd run a whitelist or something.

platinumrad• 2 months ago

I'm not a fan of the Iranian government at all but this is pure Iran Derangement Syndrome. If you thought about this for half a second you'd realize that their "army of digital burglars" has had internet access the entire time. No state, and especially not one that specializes in proxy warfare, is going to intentionally cripple its actors with the highest damage to plausible deniability ratio.

r721• 2 months ago

nostrademons2• 2 months ago

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news.

It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at least is worried about being ousted if this continues. The usual reason why you would lie about peace being around the corner is to placate the citizenry and prevent them from revolting.

Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak. Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?

Forgeties79• 2 months ago

Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak. Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?

Hasn’t he done this every week since it started? He constantly bounces between “we’ve almost got a great deal” and “we are going to ABSOLUTELY OBLITERATE IRAN1!!!1!”

cjbgkagh• 2 months ago

There are many reasons to lie about peace being around the corner, it is the default norm. It is in part to place the blame of further conflicts on your enemies, i.e. I wanted peace but clearly they did not.

There is a conflict of narratives and one way to help push your narrative is to act like it is the reality on the ground. Unless the US is going to send in a ground army or nuke Iran then all we have at the moment is a pointless stalemate and the longer this goes on the more people will be upset at Trump and Israel for creating this situation.

twothreeone2• 2 months ago

Isn't it also possible that this happened to be one of the explicit pre-conditions for a treaty by the US?

nostrademons2• 2 months ago

It could be a trust-building move, open up a little and see if it's reciprocated, although if it's a trust-building move the right response is probably not to threaten to obliterate them, or to launch more military strikes.

Although this conflict has seen both sides consistently choose the wrong response in basically every situation, which is why it's still going on.

protocolture• 2 months ago

Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action.

He does this every day even if hes not at war. He threatens to nuke canada and destroy the EU. You literally can never take him seriously.

Gigachad• 2 months ago

The prime example of the boy who cried wolf.

jmyeet4• 2 months ago

No, Iran is acting like time is on their side. Because it is. The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained. That's going to be a whole new level of suffering.

Trump is doubling down on Israel's demands. That's the true stumbling block here. Israel wanted this war. They still do. Israel thinks they can turn Iran into a failed-state like Somalia.

Trump is also the least reliable indicator of what's going to happen becausee, as we all hopefully know by now, he just rants stream-of-consciousness like. The Joint Chiefs, the intelligence community and allies all knew this was doomed to failure. Closing the Strait of Hormuz has been historically modeled in terms of military exercises and capability for decades. It was unproven prior to this war if the US could reopen the Strait. Well, now we know. Congratulations, everybody, the system works.

I don't know what increased Internet traffic from Iran means. As was proven last year though, Israel used that access for intelligence and assassination purposes (ie to identify target locations, particularly through the large number of of Afghan refugees that were in the country at the time, allegedly [1]).

There is no grand strategy. There are no cards left to play by the US short of the use of nuclear weapons. I mean that literally. The uS has lost but unwillingness to break with Israel has stopped the administration from admitting it publicly.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckglp8epg11o

bluegatty4• 2 months ago

Time is on their side - except for the embargo. That stops 90% of their revenue and that's a very real thing.

It's interesting to see how far they think they can get away with this, but they are not in an easy situation.

Soldiers and civil infrastructure don't last on $0.

That money stops is the 'most likely thing' that will cause a real revolution.

Both sides are hoping for 'regime change' by embargo it seems!

dnautics4• 2 months ago

The iceberg the rest of the world is about to hit in the coming month or two is strategic reserves of crude oil as well as refined petroleum products (eg jet fuel, gasoline, diesel) being drained.

It's not clear to me that the "world" will come down on Iran's side on this one. On the one hand you have a country that is perpetrating a violation of international norms by establishing a toll on the straight of hormuz and is shooting at or is threatening to shoot at the "world"'s ships, on the other hand you have a country that violated international norms by invading another country (ho hum, everyone does this) but isn't shooting at or threatening to shoot at your ships (mostly just iranian or dark ships). When the oil reserves run out, do you side with the bad guys that are making a token effort at helping to get oil to you, or do you side with the bad guys that are preventing oil from getting to you just to middle finger trump?

bluegatty4• 2 months ago

No, the regime has been very publicly saying 'there is no deal', more so than US Admin who keeps hinting 'a deal' or 'imminent' or '95% of the way there'.

"Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. "

No - he's been backing down over and over for weeks. There limited strikes today.

The US Admin is wary of escalation, Tehran knows it (or seems to be acting as though they believe that) and are dragging this along.

dools• 2 months ago

Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?

Well, yes probably.

NordStreamYacht2• 2 months ago

Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?

Unlikely. They thought a dose of shock and awe would get people out on the streets for a rapid regime change and it didn't work.

hypeatei• 2 months ago

I don't think U.S. intelligence thought any part of this war was a good idea or justified. There were two National Intelligence Estimates (a panel of all 18 agencies in the IC) that concluded Iran was not developing nuclear weapons.

There has also been reporting that a top general in the Joint Chiefs of Staff warned Trump about starting a conflict with Iran[0]. The only party that believes, or wants others to believe that Iran is a huge threat, is Israel.

0: https://www.axios.com/2026/02/23/iran-strike-trump-gen-dan-c...

esseph• 2 months ago

Also relatedly, Trump is now doubling down on U.S. demands and threats of more military action. This is what you do if you sense your opponent is weak.

It's really the opposite. Trump is grasping at anything he can use as leverage in a deal he doesn't seem to be able to close.

tim3337• 2 months ago

The Iranians are probably good with the status quo - Trump blustering while blocking Hormuz causes escalating shortages and the November elections pressure Trump.

licebmi__at__• 2 months ago

You could also give credence to the reporting that US/Trump has messaged to Iran that they should ignore Trump declarations as they are intended for internal audiences.

During the rest of the conflict Trump has doubled down on threats, I mean "a civilization will die tonight" is not peacefully. I wouldn't doubt that Trump might believe Iran is weak, but I also think is more than proved that US wartime messaging is mostly directed internally to keep people dumb.

2OEH8eoCRo0• 2 months ago

The US just struck them again at Bandar Abbas

myth_drannon• 2 months ago

Why is the bot traffic in Iran is so high -75%? I checked Argentina - 16%, Netherlands - 65%.

stn8188• 2 months ago

Oh come to think of it, I had some attempted logins to some home-hosted infrastructure from Iran last week...

drnick12• 2 months ago

You should really filter third world IP ranges. Removes a lot of of the unwanted log noise.

zuzululu2• 2 months ago

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink.

Those two were supposed to be backstops against any externally induced regime change. Now any country at odds with United States currently owning nukes is looking at escalating straight to warning shot doctrine. Having enriched uraniums or some land based ICBM is no longer enough. Something tactical and small enough to be used to limit nuclear fallout but make regional allies absolutely against engaging in war at behest of the US seems like it would test US nuclear umbrella.

ex) Any NATO countries willing to have a low yield tactical nuke detonate near their border but inside a disputed territory/land? Which non-nuclear EU country is willing to erase themselves off the map to shield their European brothers?

taneq• 2 months ago

Re. point 2: It is if you own Starlink. :S

mgiampapa• 2 months ago

The US Government can own and nationalize it in a heartbeat if they want to. Even other Billionaires hate Musk.

whatever12• 2 months ago

I really thought that Russia would use such a device to end the war in Ukraine. Hopefully they will not.

epistasis2• 2 months ago

If Ukraine had kept its nuclear weapons it would not have been attacked, but there was never any risk of Russia using nuclear weapons.

This is just one of many many ways that people in the west fundamentally misunderstand Russia, and why so many people made fools of themselves thinking that Putin would not invade. The other really big one is that Russia never admitted that it lost the Cold War and thinks the war is still going on, and that it's the fault of the US and others that Russia is so backwards and poor, not a result of their own mismanagement, the weakness of their people, and the general corruption.

xiphias23• 2 months ago

It would not, but it's clearly not just a war with Ukraine.

Europe is sending the jet engines for the drones that are shooting Moscow, and Germany is very actively preparing for war with Russia.

It's not the first time in history that this has been done, and Russia still remembers.

tim3337• 2 months ago

Russia could end the war in Ukraine tomorrow by just going home.

They could use nukes as part of their campaign of imperial expansion but they'd get a lot of push back from the rest of the world.

rayiner2• 2 months ago

For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners

I think the Iran war was a dumb idea, but you’re repeating propaganda.[1] Khamenei called the shots in Iran. The country had a nuclear weapons program because he wanted it. Iran isn’t an autocracy in the same way China isn’t an autocracy—the mullahs run the country in the same way as the CCP runs China. But major defense programs don’t happen without the supreme leader’s approval.

Khamenei was also a hardliner. Over the last two decades, there have been many moderate candidates for Iran’s presidency. But the Guardian Council banned all of them from running. (The Guardian Council has six members appointed by the Ayatollah, and six appointed by the Chief Justice, who is appointed by the Ayatollah.)

[1] I find it interesting people feel the need to make excuses for the Iranian regime. I guess non-interference with a sovereign country’s internal affairs is not, by itself, a very satisfying principle. So there is a desire to make it seem like Iran’s leadership didn’t deserve to get blown up.

zuzululu2• 2 months ago

always fascinating to see people throwing around the word propaganda without being remotely concerned with how they appear to others

fragmede3• 2 months ago

Both Russia and Iran have figured out how to jam Starlink.

tim3337• 2 months ago

Starlink seems to function pretty well in Ukraine.

Internet traffic in Iran increasing

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