Palantir could be the most overvalued company that ever existed

https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/11/25/palantir-could-be-the-most-overvalued-company-that-ever-existed/

by Anon84 • 8 months ago

164 123 8 months ago

247wallst.com

mgh2• 8 months ago

As long as the AI hopium flies

duttish2• 8 months ago

I'll throw the British South Sea Trading Company into the ring for that title of most overvalued company ever.

It had the king himself on the board. The company value represented a decent fraction of the national gdp at the time. All without actually never producing anything of actual value. It was just bribes and speculation all the way through. It's wild.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Sea_Company

Extra History did a more easily digestible series, which was how I learned about it in the first place. https://youtu.be/k1kndKWJKB8

petesergeant2• 8 months ago

The company value represented a decent fraction of the national gdp at the time.

The company's market-cap was almost 3 times national GDP

duttish2• 8 months ago

Oh wow, thanks. I misremembered, thought it was like 1/3 and didn't have time to look it up again.

maratc• 8 months ago

We should stop comparing incomparable things, like companies market cap (measured in dollars or pounds) to national GDPs (measured in dollars or pounds per year,) unless we want to reach outrageous but incorrect conclusions.

saagarjha• 8 months ago

Unrelated question: did we have a good enough idea of the world map in 1711 for the coat of arms shown on Wikipedia to be accurate?

aetherson2• 8 months ago

No, and the article shows a not-even-attempting-accuracy period version of the coat of arms a little below: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SouthSeaCompany_TradeLabe...

jqpabc1234• 8 months ago

TSLA has to be in the mix with a PE over 300.

TitaRusell2• 8 months ago

I don't know. People judge Tesla and other companies on their links with the Trump cult and trade tariffs.

And to be honest car manufacturers have always had very deep links with politics.

jqpabc1234• 8 months ago

Most car manufacturers have a PE around 10.

TSLA is over 300. And sales of EVs are actually falling under Trump. And tariffs are not helping.

Nothing about the valuation of TSLA or PLTR make any sense.

iszomer4• 8 months ago

I think it would blow their minds that Tesla isn't just an EV manufacturer.

wavefunction• 8 months ago

they're gonna build the american social-discredit system for many filthy dollars

Quothling2• 8 months ago

To me it would depend a lot on how US/EU relations continue to grow/break. If digital sovereignty ends up putting Palantir in a position where they won't be able to seel their intelligence tools to European secret police organisations, then it's probably overvalued. If relationships work out fine, then they'll basically be the Microsoft of mass survailance, which may make them overvalued but surely not the most overvalued company that ever existed?

dididn284d• 8 months ago

Once you’re embedded in govt, the ‘OS’ for government, then you can raise charges in order to keep the hoards at bay. Hoards that are angry at cuts to public services made in order to finance Palantir profits…

What 4/5yr term govt can turn off or replace their OS?

graemep3• 8 months ago

I do not think the EU is critical. Palantir's potential market is global, so one region is not that important to them. They also sell to the private sector and this will increase, and EU countries will have different policies so losing a few EU governments business would not be that big a deal.

Right now 73% or their sales are to the US, and the next biggest source of revenue is the UK, far behind at 10%. The whole of the rest of the world, including the EU, adds up to 17%.

TitaRusell2• 8 months ago

In that case Palantir has to compete with China.

And the US has a pretty bad neo colonialism and CIA rep. If I was the president of Mexico I would not trust anything from up North right now.

Quothling2• 8 months ago

Is their market really global though? If it wasn't for political reasons I suspect everyone would be buying Chinese mass surveilance tools. Traditional US allies won't do that, at least not yet, but why would South America trust US over China?

nextstep• 8 months ago

For the sake of democracy and freedom of human expression, I hope that their software is a bloated, bureaucratic mess and can’t power the efficient dystopia which Alex Karp wants.

hunglee2• 8 months ago

it may well be terrible software, but Palantir are effectively an arm of the new Trumpian state, so guaranteed access (and ownership?) to the largest public sector projects of the largest economy in the world. It's got a good chance of becoming the Samsung of the US, so any value is not an overvalue

gamma42• 8 months ago

Let's reconsider what you think the word value means

petesergeant2• 8 months ago

an arm of the new Trumpian state, so guaranteed access (and ownership?) to the largest public sector projects of the largest economy in the world

That puts them in a precarious situation when the political winds change

iszomer4• 8 months ago

That puts them in a precarious situation when the political winds change

I thought Alex Karp in a relatively recent interview said he didn't give a hoot?

BLKNSLVR• 8 months ago

So get in now, but get out soon before the Trumpian reign is over.

davedx5• 8 months ago

any value is not an overvalue

Ridiculous statement. If you're actually investing your money in a company then you need to run the numbers, it's the most basic kind of due diligence you should do.

richardatlarge• 8 months ago

Michael Burry shares his own thoughts on the subject, toward the end

https://pca.st/episode/17966c7b-a56e-46f7-ab2d-03d86dbad650

gbriel• 8 months ago

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

owisd• 8 months ago

Michael Burry famously did quite well betting against that advice.

throaway45425• 8 months ago

It is like there is this online bot that scans for any mention of an asset being overpriced and then it automatically post this Keynes quote.

uxhacker• 8 months ago

Can somebody explain how the software actually adds value? How is it really that amazing? Or is it just a buzz word?

davedx5• 8 months ago

There was a great blog post by an early employee on here a while back that did a deep dive. It's a good read: https://nabeelqu.substack.com/p/reflections-on-palantir

omnimus• 8 months ago

No. Thats the point. There nothing groundbreaking except their branding and lobby. Every other enterprise sofware company has data analytics platforms similar to Palantir - including the big microsoft / google. Palantir might even be best by a big margin but none of that matters. Nothing would justify this valuation. But what matters is that govs around the world will buy Palantir to show their alliance to US/Trump/Thiel. European far right politicians will happily push Palantir everywhere.

whycombinetor• 8 months ago

This is the first time I've seen an ad presented as a bullet point in a list of otherwise-salient bullet points. Nefarious.

dataflow360• 8 months ago

Try using Safari’s Reader view on this ad-riddled page, and you’re greeted with all-text content that’s… 100% ad!

porridgeraisin• 8 months ago

Yeah that's insane.

corentin88• 8 months ago

Unreadable...

_ink_• 8 months ago

Yeah, all credibility was immediately lost when I read that. I just closed the tab and put it away as ad piece.

piker• 8 months ago

It is pretty clearly labelled with "(Sponsor)". Couldn't be less obtrusive, either. I think on balance it's at least neutral compared with the other nonsense available to both the publisher and advertiser these days.

Jean-Papoulos• 8 months ago

Palantir would need to grow its revenues roughly 15-fold (yes, 1,500%) over the next quarter century, implying sustained annual revenue growth in the 35% range over this time frame.

That's actually a pretty reasonnable ask for a tech company, if you believe Palantir can grow to the level of FAANG.

rsynnott• 8 months ago

Sustained growth of 35% p/y over a _quarter of a century_ is not a 'reasonable' ask, tech company or no tech company. Virtually no company has ever done that.

aoeusnth12• 8 months ago

15x over 25 years is a reasonable ask for probably half of tech companies because you don't need 35%/y do accomplish it, you only need 11.4%.

aoeusnth12• 8 months ago

Their math is just wrong. If they need to grow 15x over 25 years, they only need a modest 11.4% growth per year.

15^(1/35) = 1.11

1500^(1/35) = 1.34

Did the author maybe put a few extra zeros in their calculator when figuring out the annual revenue growth which would equal 15x over a 25 year span?

terminalshort2• 8 months ago

Dumb analysis. Assumes that profit margin stays the same as revenue grows, which is particularly untrue for software.

cmiles8• 8 months ago

One of the concerns with the company though is are they really “software.” Many cite experiences with the where they deploy armies of people doing things to clean up data and other hands on labor for the “software” to work just “software” where you buy a license and off you go.

gethly• 8 months ago

Palantir is only the 15th most overvalued:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-screener

MikeNotThePope• 8 months ago

P/E isn't the only way to value a company. A company can be unprofitable, and therefore not have a P/E, and still be worth something. A quickly growing startup that is losing money on paper but has free positive cash flow is one example.

aswegs8• 8 months ago

Well, Palantir is the only really large company in the P/E top section. You could argue smaller companies have more upside and could thus justify their valuation easier

danpalmer• 8 months ago

Like Tesla, Palantir is an ideological investment for many, and likely why it's so over valued. Retail investors buy these stocks because they're buying into a world view. Tesla's is obvious (and it's not about green investments). Palantir's is a little less so, but they have built up an image that's right wing (but mostly not culture war), military-coded, and layered on American exceptionalism. They sell to the CIA, they sell to ICE, they help private healthcare companies milk their customers. This is all part of a world view that many people are in favour of, and Palantir represents it well. Andruil will likely do well for similar reasons once they go public.

This is not really to fault them. I see the company as far more mature than Tesla. They've cultivated a brand that works well for them. This is also not intended to be a criticism of Palantir investors, there are many reasons to invest, and even if you subscribe to the above that is of course your right! Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine.

davedx5• 8 months ago

Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine.

It's fine if you don't mind losing your shirt.

For us normal people, we invest to try and grow the money we've saved for the future (in my case, for my retirement), so investing in a company whose stock is insanely overvalued is a great way to blow up my pension pot.

I don't understand the rationale behind "investing for ideological reasons", can you explain it?

rcxdude2• 8 months ago

Investment for ideological reasons is basically "I like what this company is doing and want to see it succeed/want to make my returns on investment via it", and that investment helps it succeed, to at least some degree. You also get the opposite: "I don't like what this company is doing and don't want it to succeed/don't want to make money from this activity, so I won't invest in it". ESG investments were largely built up from this (much as they generally turned into box-ticking exercises as opposed to a useful distinction). Of course this is generally going to make less money than "I just want to make money/predict winners in the marketplace", but that's not everything people want to do with their money.

rixed• 8 months ago

Many people invest for ideological reasons, myself included, and that's fine.

Sure, but I'm under the assumption that many people, yourself included, are conflating "buying some company stocks" with "investing".

To first order approximation, it does not benefit a company that you trade stocks on the market once they have been emitted, any more than it benefits GM if you opt to buy a second hand chevrolet.

So the support is symbolic only.

arghandugh• 8 months ago

One illuminating factor as to why: watch their CEO Alex Carp overdose on cocaine while on stage in public.

https://bsky.app/profile/ronfilipkowski.bsky.social/post/3m7...

bigbuppo• 8 months ago

And then you have Thiel going crazy about biblical end times prophecies involving the anti-christ and I'm starting to wonder wtf they're doing at Palantir.

ZeroGravitas• 8 months ago

The other founder is in the news for calling for public hangings to be brought back.

tessierashpool92• 8 months ago

It seems like he is just trying to make a point with his moving around about being "annoying" - which is what he is talking about.

licyeus• 8 months ago

He appears to be making that point for the entirety of the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8i-ys9faa74

djdjsjejb• 8 months ago

you haven't seen the real ontology yet

https://x.com/justintrimble/status/1997733647223603259?s=20

ThePowerOfFuet• 8 months ago

https://xcancel.com/justintrimble/status/1997733647223603259

penguin_booze• 8 months ago

I'm pretty sure his surname is a deliberate typo.

m4r1k• 8 months ago

Palantir is a shit show

tessierashpool92• 8 months ago

If they keep their shit together and ride the surveillance wave then I don't see what should keep them from increasing 15fold by 2050. Their technology is not at all dependent on AGI, which is why I don't understand why they are always thrown in together with OpenAI et al.

epolanski2• 8 months ago

Palantir has terrific sales and lobbyists. I'd never bet on them, nor against them.

chii• 8 months ago

if you had the money to spare (and don't mind losing it), would you still not bet on them then?

DoingIsLearning• 8 months ago

I have very specifically invested in Defense funds that exclude Palantir both because I think it's overpriced and for ethical reasons.

epolanski2• 8 months ago

Even if you have money you don't mind losing, there's plenty of options to choose from on financial markets and Palantir is just one of them.

So the question is still why Palantir and not X/Y/Z?

nrhrjrjrjtntbt3• 8 months ago

What an ad ridden mess. Even one of the summary bullets is an affiliate link.

gadders3• 8 months ago

Can someone actually explain what the magic sauce is in what Palantir does? I understand it pulls data together?

lm28469• 8 months ago

Papypal mafia, thiel, musk, trump, money, oligarchy, conflicts of interests, military–industrial complex, 3 letters agencies, mass surveillance, &c.

It's kind of a conspiracy theory bingo at that point, it's probably somehow even worse than we can imagine

willis936• 8 months ago

They think there is money on the table from maximizing anti-ethical behavior. This misinterprets capitalism's current state as something with ethics.

mclightning2• 8 months ago

Magic sauce is absolute lack of moral values.

gadders3• 8 months ago

But I mean in terms of technical capability? How is it different than chucking everything in Postgres or a Big Data lake or something?

loky4i4• 8 months ago

lol and you know that based on what information ?

Traster• 8 months ago

There's a few things. Let's start with the core of what they say is their value. They have forward deployed engineers - this a totally new, previously unknown innovation - who go to a company, understand their needs and build data processing tools to give them insights. Then, they generalize these tools so that they can essentially sell them as SAAS software, giving them SAAS-type economics.

What other people say is their secret sauce, is they do consulting work for the government (a forward deployed engineer is just a consultant) and they make incredible margins because their senior management and early investors have connections to the government which gets them exclusive access to incredibly juicy contracts. As these contracts paid off they leant heavily into the social media meme stock trend so their CEO spends time talking like a psychopath and doing various non-economic things like spending huge amounts of money running adverts about how they're going to use AI to unleash Americas workers (America's workers aren't able to buy Palantir software or services, but they can buy it's stock).

gadders3• 8 months ago

OK. The first part sounds a bit like an innovation.

I was kind of expecting someone to say it had EG really sophisticated ETL tools that can normalise loads of different data or can query across disparate data sources or something.

pcthrowaway• 8 months ago

What other people say is their secret sauce, is they do consulting work for the government

Also for the IDF

dartharva• 8 months ago

How is this "forward deployed engineers" model different from that of basically any tech consulting firm?

usrusr• 8 months ago

The magic sauce in terms of bubbleability is that the product is all secret and investors can't form any natural opinion beyond what's published in company performance publications. Because they aren't allowed to know anything beyond that. It's just blind trust, "governments have bought before, they might continue buying, perhaps buy more". Reminds me a bit of the psychological mechanisms that make a con work, might be something to it.

nl2• 8 months ago

The reason Palantir is valued as highly is because it is a Peter Thiel company, and he also owns the Vice President of the United States.

The thesis is "The current US administration is making enormous profits from their powerful positions. Whether of not I agree with this, I want some of that money too".

I'm not sure why this isn't mentioned because it's the number one factor driving the price.

nh23423fefe• 8 months ago

its not mentioned because its boring political pablum

conartist6• 8 months ago

Putting this here for visibility, but go upvote the people who actually did the sleuthwork: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46190013

It seems like the financial outlet made a maths error and then was amazed by the absurdity of the incorrect result they got.

Specifically their whole outrage is based on having accidentally calculated what would need to happen for Palantir's revenues to grow 1500x as opposed to 15x. The corrected statistic would be the Palantir requires 11.4% revenue growth year over year not 35%.

htrp• 8 months ago

For people who are unclear what Palantir actually does

Palantir is a tech platform that consumes data from their clients in return for providing high level data-driven insights. They assign FDEs (or consultants) to really learn the details of a customers data. Foundry allows them to get single pane view of the data in an org and they actually have both the tech and engineering skills to do the dirty data cleaning jobs.

For an extravagant fee, you give them your data, they clean it for you, and then those same FDEs can tell you interesting things that you should have known, had you actually done proper data architecture in the first place.

Does it add value, yes. Is the value worth the fee? Like snowflake, they throw some very very good parties.

red-iron-pine• 8 months ago

More than Tesla? good luck

tsoukase• 8 months ago

Today the fast growing US stocks are those that discount the further concentration of wealth to the current private-government elite. They believe that in the coming years they will flourish at the expense of the middle/lower class.

lazzlazzlazz• 8 months ago

The cope and envy in the comments here are among the worst I've read on Hacker News. The anti-tech hysteria has even made it here. Sad days.

Palantir could be the most overvalued company that ever existed

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