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aoeusnth1

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AI is slowing down 1 month ago

What about all his other articles that had f-bombs and the predictive utility of used toilet paper?

We're discussing whether they are models or not, not whether they have goals and agency. A language model does form a model of who you are and what you're thinking, because language is causally connected to those aspects of the generating distribution and modeling those aspects reduces cross-entropy.

RL provides the goals and agency. Pretraining provides the model.

When I read your reply, I’m also modeling language. Tokens are just the discretization of the model’s eyes and ears. My brain does a huge amount of work to represent what’s happening in the world based on discrete information received from the outside world, just like language models do.

The universe contains subsystems which can be described as eluded in the sense that we can take the intentional stance on these systems and describe their observable behavior as being in a state of illusion of separation.

There is nothing which makes either of them are “you.” The feeling of Self is a useful predictor which a physical subsystem uses to nagivate the world and predict observations. “I” is not a physically real label which attaches the “you”-ness to physical systems, the physical systems simply are, and are inherently first-person in character. The only real you is the global quantum wave function, or whatever the underlying real stuff is doing.

Materialism directly implies no-self and Advaita Vedanta schools of thought.

The article explicitly and repeatedly affirms that illegal THC vapes are dangerous because of Vitamin E Acetate, which is used as a thickener agent. TFA points out how the NYT article carefully weasels its way around admitting that the THC vaping was the cause of the teenager's lung injury - the NYT is attempting to get the audience to associate the harm with legal nicotine vapes.

Does that make more sense to you now?

Claude Opus 4.7 3 months ago

SWE-bench pro is ~20% higher than the previous .1 generation which was released 2 months ago. For their SWE benchmark, the token consumption iso-performance is down 2x from the model they released 2 months ago.

If this is a plateau I struggle to imagine what you consider fast progress.

Wobbly assumption that increasing the size of these models yields better performance.

I'm assuming you disagree that larger models are better? Can you expand on what indicates that AI will hit a wall in scaling given the evidence of the last 9 years of scaling transformers (or other models)? Where on the plot does the line go from exponential to flat?

I don't think he's misleading, I think he is valuing Claude's contributions as essentially having cracked the problem open while the humans cleaned it up into something presentable.

I'm an environmentalist and I agree with this framing. The solution is going to be painful and must increase prices on products and services that fossil fuels are currently the cheapest solution for. If you're not willing to personally sacrifice anything to reduce fossil fuel consumption you can see why carbon taxes are not popular, right? France's protests against them, for example, are a good example of a populist reaction against attempts to regulate the economy to have less emissions.

Amazon has 350K corporate roles, so yearly layoffs of 16K is only 5% - if you assume some modest re-hiring in lower-cost locations, this is just a relatively standard (at least lately) pivot out of high-cost US roles into other lower-cost economies.