Tesla reports 14% decline in deliveries, marking second year-over-year drop

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/tesla-tsla-q2-2025-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

by ceejayoz • 1 year ago

98 158 1 year ago

Analemma_• 1 year ago

On the one hand, this was slightly better than analyst predictions.

On the other hand, last quarter Tesla (and its online defenders) insisted the reason for the previous drop was that people were waiting for refreshed models. Now that the refreshes have been available for a full quarter and sales are still declining, we can rule that possibility out.

sorcerer-mar3• 1 year ago

Unsurprisingly: $TSLA cult says this is good news

lesuorac2• 1 year ago

How is this not amazing news?

TSLA has a 14% decline in deliveries but 19% increase in stock price. The direction of the company should be clear, decline deliveries by 100% for a sweat 2000% stock appreciation.

ksherlock• 1 year ago

According to WSJ, according to FactSet:

"The final quarterly tally of 384,122 missed analysts’ expectations of 387,000 deliveries"

wpm• 1 year ago

$TSLA up 3.88% at the time of this comment.

Hamuko4• 1 year ago

The car company may not be selling vehicles but it has around ten invite-only self-driving manned robotaxis in a single US city that was possibly mapped separately before launch, so it's obviously worth a lot of money.

maeln• 1 year ago

And -3.91% on the last 5 days, and -8.89% in the last month, and +34% in the last year. There is no real point to be taken here.

peab• 1 year ago

Yeah. The fact is Tesla is a volatile stock. You can paint any picture you want if you select the right timeframe.

jasonlotito• 1 year ago

That's 1) buying the dip and 2) beating the estimate. TSLA has always been about the personality of a car salesman more than anything, so this isn't a surprise.

b_zak• 1 year ago

Genuine question: what is driving the stock that high in contradiction to the news ?

johannes1234321• 1 year ago

Assuming "the market" to act "rational" (which can be questioned to some degree in that case - there is hype and the Musk-Factor ..) the driver is that the news may still be better than the prediction: If everybody two days ago assumed a decline of sales by 30% the stocks dropped back then, then real numbers come and decline is "only" 14% they raise again as the bad news are still better than assumed.

(The 30% is just an arbitrary number)

Spooky233• 1 year ago

Elon does alot of manipulation of the stock. Also, the market is kind of shell shocked and has no idea wtf to do.

epolanski4• 1 year ago

Even at insane growth multiples there's plenty of high/mega caps on the SP500 that will never, ever return investors the money that simple bonds will, you're paying way too much for way too little (future) cash flows and book.

There's many companies that have their revenues flat or falling from quite some time which are still priced for insane future growth. Go figure.

Marsymars4• 1 year ago

Well the problem there is that you don’t know which companies will pay better than bonds and which ones won’t.

Haven’t run the numbers, but I assume that you could take the S&P 500 over whatever timeframe you want, remove all the stocks that didn’t outperform bonds, and be left with a basket of stocks that wildly outperforms the actual S&P 500.

linotype• 1 year ago

In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine. This still applies to TSLA.

ARandumGuy2• 1 year ago

Tesla's stock price has always seemed completely irrational to me. Tesla's market cap is over double Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, VW, GM, and Ford combined. All while selling far fewer cars then any of those manufacturers.

For this market cap to make sense, Tesla would have to eventually become the dominant car manufacturer worldwide. And that just doesn't seem like a reasonable prediction, given that legacy car manufacturers are starting to figure out EVs, and newer EV-focused manufacturers are making huge strides.

I don't know when (or even if) Tesla's stock price will fall back down to Earth. The old saying is that the market can remain irrational longer then you can remain solvent. But I do know that Tesla's stock price is not a good indicator of how well they're doing as a car manufacturer.

stoobs• 1 year ago

I'm expecting sales to drop even further at this point.

Elon is too toxic, and they got distracted with the whole cybertruck nonsense and kicked the model 1/smaller more euro-focused one into the long grass

api• 1 year ago

Elon also alienated their main customer base, then turned around and alienated the far right crowd he was trying to woo. Obviously 5D chess.

ARandumGuy2• 1 year ago

In general, the people who like EVs hate Elon's politics, and the people who like Elon's politics hate EVs. This significantly reduces the amount of people who want to buy a Tesla.

This is the risk when you tie your brand to a single person, especially someone who loves being in the spotlight. Whenever that person does something controversial, that reflects poorly on the brand.

blonder2• 1 year ago

As a (former) huge tesla fan/shareholder, and current model 3 enjoyer, the cybertruck really makes me upset. The millions of dollars and engineering hours devoted to that thing that could have been devoted to a new product that people actually want and use (or even a halo product like the forgotten new roadster) was and is incredibly wasteful.

consumer451• 1 year ago

The cybertruck is the full vehicle version of the mistake Musk made by pushing for the falcon-wing doors on Model X. He said that was a huge mistake, and nothing like that would ever happen again.

gortok6• 1 year ago

As someone who dislikes Musk's seemingly oblivious approach to "Move fast and break things" in government when real lives are at stake and expertise is not easy to come by, I really want this drop to be attributable to that. I really, really do.

I own a Tesla (2023 Model Y Long Range 7-seat), and I do enjoy my Model Y; I have some complaints, but overall I'm happy with the safety features of the vehicle. I do not and will not enable the FSD or Auto-steer; but otherwise I am happy with it, and want other car manufacturers to take note of the vertical technological integration possible when they put their minds to it.

However, in pursuit of a better bottom line, Tesla has made some affordance changes to their post 2023 models; and even their camera vision in the 2023 model is a poor substitute for ultra-sonic sensors for parking.

Combine that with their gutting of the Tesla Supercharger team; and the subsequent decline in quality of their supercharger experience, and then combine that with the macro-economic issues that are surrounding EV range and EV experiences in real world conditions; and you have a decline that can be attributed to the non-Musk effects as well.

I don't doubt his political machinations have contributed to Tesla's decline. If I could sell my Tesla, I would; (I am way underwater due to its steep drop in resale value), but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.

homefree7• 1 year ago

You should really try FSD, I have it drive me from SF down the peninsula and back every day and it’s amazing, basically requires zero intervention.

I think the political complaints are dumb and people over index on stuff that doesn’t matter because of partisan politics. HN has hated on Tesla and musk for years despite continued success across multiple difficult industries.

If the robotaxi work in Austin succeeds they’ll have a massive advantage. There’s really nobody close to what Tesla is doing.

I had a 2018 M3P and now a 2025 Model S Plaid, the vision stuff works better, the quality is a lot nicer, there are a lot more superchargers and more are v3 or v4.

The quality of the comments on this thread suggest there’s still value here to buy. When people dismiss stuff for dumb reasons it’s easy to make money. It’s been the story of Tesla from the beginning.

gortok6• 1 year ago

I'm sure Teslas automated features work well in California, where their engineers are based. They do not, however, work as well in the varying climates found on the East Coast. This is funny as a "works on my machine" approach to testing, but tragic since real lives are at stake.

sorcerer-mar3• 1 year ago

Just FYI "basically requires zero intervention" is nowhere close to what's needed for self-driving.

It needs to be probably 1-2 orders of magnitude better than what the vast majority of people would actually experience as "zero interventions ever".

One intervention every 80 miles ("basically zero") is 178 interventions per year for the average American driver. Let's say conservatively that 10% of those avoids an accident, you're looking at 17 accidents caused by each driver per year, never mind the accidents they're just victim to due to misfortunate of being near someone else's 17 annual accidents.

thfuran• 1 year ago

Musk's seemingly oblivious approach to "Move fast and break things" in government

DOGE wasn't incidentally and accidentally breaking things in their effort to save money, they were yammering about saving money as they systematically gutted the regulatory agencies investigating Musk.

mikeyouse2• 1 year ago

To be fair, they also dismantled tons of important things with quiet constituencies that had nothing to do with Musk (USAID / PEPFAR, NIH, NEA, etc. etc.)

dmix2• 1 year ago

gutted

FAA laid off 400 employees out of 45,000.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration laid off 4% of their employees

CFPB was responsible for probing Tesla for any customer complaints around auto-financing loans but they had not yet ever formally fined or sued Tesla. They were closest attempt at being 'gutted' with around 90% reduction, but all layoffs were halted by a judge.

So if he did try to gut them he failed.

epolanski4• 1 year ago

but otherwise I am happy with it, and want other car manufacturers to take note of the vertical technological integration possible when they put their minds to it

Can you make practical examples of this vertical technological integration?

bryanlarsen5• 1 year ago

(responding to earlier version of comment referencing China).

Note that Tesla learned a lot of their vertical integration and manufacturing expertise from the Chinese. Their first factory in Fremont produced low quality product at a high price. Then they built a factory in China using a lot of local expertise which produced a much higher quality product much cheaper. Their German factory is a clone of the Chinese factory.

Reports are that Ford is in panic mode after analyzing the quality and performance of recent Chinese cars. If other companies are similar perhaps positive changes will be made in at least some of them.

gortok6• 1 year ago

Let me start with the App.

The Tesla App allows me to lock, unlock the car, pop and close the trunk, check the cameras, schedule it to warm itself up, input destinations, see its real-time location, and see charging issues.

The app isn't clunky to use. It's wonderful, and it's really well made.

The car's infotainment system is vertically integrated; all of the features are available in one common interface and work well with one another. The car will automatically turn down the fans when I'm on a call, as just one example.

The cameras turn on and show me the blind spots when I'm changing lanes (my only complaint there is that the side-view mirrors do not physically allow me to position them as recommended by NHTSA).

The integrated maps also include charging station availability; and the maps automatically update (I don't need to buy an SD Card from a manufacturer with the updated maps). The software team is able to push updates to my car; so if there are bugs with their bluetooth, it gets fixed without me having to go to the dealership and hoping they care enough about their technology stack to fix it.

If there are bugs, they get fixed; and since they're not dealing with different third-party modules, they own the entire stack that is in the car.

My only complaints are that I can't use Waze on my Tesla, which shows where cops are, and sometimes their navigation routes are wonky and aren't practical (like driving through the middle of DC to avoid going around the beltway), but otherwise the technical experience of owning and operating a tesla an using their infotainment system is lightyears ahead of any other car I've driven.

Contra that with the Volkswagen I just rented where its Carplay crashed and crashed the whole infotainment system; or the bug where its rearview camera stayed on until I manually closed it when I shifted into drive;

WA2• 1 year ago

but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.

If this were true, the market for EVs would decline in entirety. But it doesn't, or at least, not by 14%. For many people, EVs are ok, despite their real-world drawbacks: https://ourworldindata.org/electric-car-sales

Slight drawbacks can be attributed to ending of subsidies for EV purchases, not necessarily because EVs are inherently worse than ICE cars.

trimbo• 1 year ago

If this were true, the market for EVs would decline in entirety

I was just reading a different article[1] that pointed out 4 of the top EV sellers in the US (Tesla, Ford, Kia and Hyundai) have announced Q2 drops in sales. BMW is the another top EV seller whose sales dropped in Q2[2]. Of major sellers, only GM has risen.

It's probably too early to say that "the market for EVs" is declining, but this doesn't seem great.

[1] https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-sales-q2-2025-e2087...

[2] https://www.theautochannel.com/news/2025/07/01/1549392-bmw-r...

bryanlarsen5• 1 year ago

Up until 2021, everybody buying an EV expected to be underwater. EV prices were dropping 10% per year and Tesla was promising to deliver the Cybertruck for $40k. So if you could get a Cybertruck for $40K, a new Model Y would be a similar price. And if anybody could get a new model Y for $40K, obviously a used Model Y would be worth substantially less than that.

But we bought anyway -- it was like buying computers 20 years ago -- yes, you could buy a lot more computer for less money in a few months, but if you were always waiting you'd never buy a computer.

The difference is that we expected the same thing to happen to gas cars. If you can buy a good electric car brand new for $30K, any used car gas or electric is worth substantially less than that.

And that's what would happen if we had access to Chinese cars and prices. $8K for a pretty good small car. $15K for a model 3 competitor. $25K for a model Y competitor. $35K for Porsche Macan competitor.

ahahahahah2• 1 year ago

Up until 2021, everybody buying an EV expected to be underwater

Not if they believed the CEO of Tesla, he was out there telling them they would be buying an appreciating asset. And now, that might sound dumb (and in hindsight very clearly is), but there were a lot of people who did believe.

vjvjvjvjghv• 1 year ago

“I don't doubt his political machinations have contributed to Tesla's decline. If I could sell my Tesla, I would; (I am way underwater due to its steep drop in resale value), but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV. ”

I don’t know anybody who would go back to ICE after owning an EV. But I know a lot of people including myself who wouldn’t buy a Tesla because of Musk’s behavior. For me it started with the Thai cave rescue and Musk’s stupid submarine.

dspillett• 1 year ago

I don't doubt his political machinations have contributed to Tesla's decline. If I could sell my Tesla, I would; (I am way underwater due to its steep drop in resale value), but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.

I'm pretty sure his political playing around has had an effect, though I think other issues such as well documented quality problems and bad comparisons to other EVs has had a greater effect. The joke that is the cybertruck is a large part of the problem too, some people don't want to be associated with that and wouldn't even if it were not for the other matters, and and its quality problems (how many recalls have there been now?) are far more well known than the issues in the rest of the product range (those products are on the whole a lot better, but is the average reasonable buyer going to take that risk?).

eightysixfour3• 1 year ago

but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.but I think a substantial percentage of this drop can be attributable to the hype of the EV not living up to the reality of owning an EV.

What is the "hype" of owning an EV? I've owned one, I now have a hybrid. It wasn't because the EV didn't live up to some imagined hype, it was actually one of the better cars I've ever owned at its job, but my requirements changed an an EV didn't fit.

On a per mile basis it was cheap, the performance was exceptional, and the infotainment was light years ahead of most other vehicles. Is there someone out there expecting it to walk the dog and cook and clean too?

mynameisash• 1 year ago

On a per mile basis it was cheap

Just to make this concrete: I keep spreadsheets for all my vehicles, and I enter every single fuel up. My family's CRV costs $0.161/mile to drive.

I bought a VW ID.4 in January, and I also track its recharges. That car costs $0.030/mile. I don't know yet about maintenance, but just for the daily driving, gas costs 5.36x that of an EV. What would be a $45 fill-up of gas is an $8.40 electric bill.

gortok6• 1 year ago

The "Hype" (not sure why we're using scare-quotes here; as if somehow EVs are the only thing that aren't subject to the Gartner Hype Cycle) surrounding EVs include some of the following:

- Range is vastly overstated, especially in adverse weather conditions (like cold, snow, or even heat) As an example, in spring, when conditions are perfect (70 degree weather, not too sunny, not too cloudy), my Tesla Model Y LR that is supposed to get 330 miles from a 100% charge gets ... 250. That's not even close to accurate. In winter or in adverse weather conditions it can drop down to as much as 180. That's close to a 50% drop.

- Taking an EV on a long trip is not a simple prospect; and even now in 2025 Tesla still hasn't made it convenient to put in a destination and get there. Somehow the tesla navigation assumes (and up until this latest software update you had to do it yourself) that somehow when you get to where you're going a charger will be within x% of you, for whatever percentage of "x" is when you arrive at your destination. Until the latest update, we had to trick the Tesla by making our destination a round trip affair, to get it to give us a super-charger that would hopefully be close to where we're going, so it wasn't a matter of getting to our destination and manually figuring out where the nearest supercharger is. (We use it for Hockey, so we are frequently driving up the East Coast from the DC Area).

- To keep on the Super Charger issues, it is common to arrive and find undocumented issues with Superchargers (their latest updates also seem to have tried to deal with that problem, though it's not 100% fixed), or entire Supercharger stations literally being out of service but not documented on their side.

- Outside of First party charging; the thirdparty charging, like through Chargepoint et. al. is even worse. As an owner of a Tesla, it's more likely that any third-party charger I try to use will have a problem where my car doesn't actually charge. It's super annoying and at a recent visit to Hershey Park PA, I didn't find out until I came back two hours later that no charging had occurred. I don't blame Tesla for this (though it'd be nice to have a push notification warning me after 5 minutes that nothing is charging), but this is a larger EV Problem. - Overall, taking an EV somewhere still means planning your trip carefully to ensure your destination has charging, how you're getting there has charging, and a back-up plan in case that charging doesn't work.

- Like recently, my spouse took our Tesla to Massuchusetts to pick up our daughter from Soccer camp; and to where we were going there was literally a route that was backed up for 4 hours, and another route that had no superchargers for about 100 miles. So we could either deal with the fact that she was in traffic for four extra hours, or we could deal with the fact that no first-party chargers were in the other route and hope the third-party chargers were up to snuff.

- Wear and tear on the car tires. I got 30,000 miles out of my tires and the tire technician said that was pretty good. They regularly deal with Teslas and other EVs that eat through tires much more quickly than the tires are rated for (and these are Tesla approved tires) due to the weight of the vehicle and the braking dynamics.

- Supply chain for repairs. There's lots of collision centers in the Washington DC area. There are lots of vehicles hanging out, waiting for parts. By far the most vehicles that stay out there the longest (both from my conversations with folks that work at the collision centers and my own eyeballs, I pass two every day) say that EVs, especially Teslas, have a much longer lead time than non-EV vehicles for parts, and that there are not as many OEMs for those parts. So that means if you get in a wreck with a Tesla, you can be waiting weeks or months when someone else might only wait a week or two for a part. As the supply chains improve for EVs that will get better, but that's still a concern for now, and a reason why you can't go "all EV" if you do any serious driving (like we do).

- Charging is not yet as easy as finding a Gas station and taking five minutes to pump gas. It's 15-30 minutes at a Supercharger depending on what you're charging to. Luckily most of the super chargers I used have good amenities close by, but some don't. Some are random mall parking lots with nothing nearby.

These are things the hype cycle doesn't tell you about and you don't realize until you've actually owned an EV and tried to make it your day-to-day vehicle. It's wonderful for short commutes to work; but there are real drawbacks, especially using it for long distance trips or trips that include winter weather.

dmix2• 1 year ago

BYD is probably the biggest factor here. Their sales were spiking in Europe and elsewhere even before the recent drama.

If I was a Tesla shareholder I'd be much more worried about that, as news cycles move on pretty fast while competition will only get stiffer.

Tesla is just lucky BYD is banned in places like Canada because the domestic car companies know they can't compete.

AlecSchueler• 1 year ago

But EV sales in general are up.

wigster• 1 year ago

the way Trump is heading and his rage vs Musk, EVs will probably be banned soon

jqpabc12312• 1 year ago

It's pretty safe to say that after a decade of unfulfilled projections and promises, the Tesla EV fantasy is now a bust.

So now it's off to new fantasy --- robotaxi.

The problem with this fantasy --- ride hailing isn't nearly as profitable as auto manufacturing.

Half the world isn't going to ditch their autos in favor of robo rides any time soon. This is what it will take to justify Tesla's current outlandish stock price.

Uber P/E is about 20. Tesla P/E is around 170. Can Tesla ride hailing be 6 times bigger/more profitable than Uber in the near future? I personally don't think so.

leoqa• 1 year ago

I have been paying about (premium lost from rolling puts) 1k/month for the last 4 months to short Tesla. I made about 12k on the last dip so I’m profitable but I’m just waiting for the bubble to burst. Today I doubled down when it went up, hoping to one day see it fail.

cbeach3• 1 year ago

Whereas on the other hand I've gained handsomely from holding Tesla stock for many years, and plan to hold it for many more years.

It feels good to support American-made sustainable technology that has revolutionised the electric car and battery storage markets.

I struggle to understand those who would short-sell Tesla, unless they have some kind of emotional hangup against Elon Musk or government efficiency?

Panzer04• 1 year ago

If robotaxis were commensurately cheap and available I'd happily dump my car. I don't see it happening for another decade or more, though.

water-data-dude• 1 year ago

I might do the same if they weren’t a privacy nightmare. The tech company running the robotaxi service would need to buck some Silicon Valley trends before I’d use their product

jqpabc12312• 1 year ago

The robotaxi sales pitch is an inherent contradiction --- robo rides will be safe, readily available, cheap --- and wildly profitable.

Maybe pick one or two of these at best but all of the above is highly unlikely.

What makes this unlikely is simple marketplace competition. Just as unlikely as Tesla conquering the auto manufacturing market.

atonse2• 1 year ago

Half the world isn't going to ditch their autos in favor of robo rides any time soon.

I don't know. Take cities like Bangalore (India) for example. I don't live there but do occasionally visit family every couple of years. And I consistently hear a general sentiment of "I just take Uber because the traffic is insane. But the traffic is insane because of too many Ubers"

But in all of that sentiment, nobody's saying "I wish I could drive instead" – they're more than happy to have someone drive them around if it's cheap enough. That was true with Auto Rickshaws, and it's even more attractive in an air conditioned car.

If taxis get cheaper, people will use them in even more situations, like daily commutes. Why not?

And what do you mean by "EV Fantasy" – I get if you meant Robotaxi or self-driving fantasy. But there are hundreds of thousands of Teslas (maybe a million?) driving around the world isn't there? Are all these people imagining that they're driving a Tesla EV? Which part of it is a fantasy?

Spooky233• 1 year ago

The US isn't like that. The people with the money for the magic taxi are in the burbs.

The fantasy that any of this nonsense is a sustainable business, especially when the charismatic leader completely FUBARed his government hobby project and is biting the hand that feeds him. Tesla's biggest source of revenue is the US government.

AnimalMuppet• 1 year ago

Which part of Tesla EV is a fantasy? The part where the volume explodes enough to justify a P/E of 170 today.

homefree7• 1 year ago

The Model Y is literally the best selling car on earth across all categories and people on HN are still calling it a fantasy.

This is just driven by partisan anti-Elon sentiment.

jqpabc12312• 1 year ago

If taxis get cheaper, people will use them in even more situations, like daily commutes. Why not?

Sure --- if roborides are cheap enough and safe enough, more people will use them.

The immediate question for Tesla and their investors --- can they really provide "safe" robo rides using their current approach?

This is far from being proven since Tesla is only rated as Level 2 autonomy which according to Tesla itself, requires constant supervision. Placing passengers and the public in danger with inadequate technology is a textbook legal definition of negligence.

The longer term question; assuming they solve FSD --- is can they make tons of money from cheap rides? Enough to justify their current outlandish stock price.

nodesocket• 1 year ago

Absurdly idiotic statement. Tesla has gone from 50k cars sold in 2015 to 1.78m in 2024. Their marketcap has increased from 31b to 1.3t in the same period. That’s not even factoring the potential growth of Optimis.

I bought a model Y dual motor in 2021 is it’s been hands down my best car ever. Almost zero maintenance. Yet more proof of never take stock advice from HN, in fact do the opposite in most circumstances. Elon derangement syndrome at its finest.

enslavedrobot• 1 year ago

8 million Teslas have been manufactured

thisisit• 1 year ago

It seems you are not up to date on Bangalore (India). The unit economy of taxis has gotten out of hand. People now prefer bike taxis. Those were banned recently and reportedly that is causing even the Auto Rickshaw costs to spiral.

If taxis get cheaper, people will use them in even more situations, like daily commutes.

This seems straight out of the Uber pitch from its early days. "Our total addressable market is the entire auto industry because people will prefer taxis over driving themselves". And a decade later where are we? Most ridesharing apps are shrinking day by day.

The unit cost of a taxi isn't sustainable in a long term. People might want to pay for someone to drive them around but that is an expensive proposition.

Robo taxis now seem to be selling the same dream. Cut out the driver and that will make rides cheaper. But deploying taxi is going to be a huge expenditure. This might be doable with VC money upfront and even cheap just like the early days of Uber. But in the long run same thing is going to happen. Once all competition is gone robotaxis are not going to be any cheaper. It will be back to square one.

seanmcdirmid• 1 year ago

If taxis get cheaper, people will use them in even more situations, like daily commutes.

That was my life in Beijing until I moved back to the states 8+ years ago. Forget about even buying a car, where would you park it? The subway was an option, especially after line 10 opened which was basically one line to work but...it was always really crowded and I didn't like standing for an hour (loop lines aren't very direct).

But there were too many cars, to make it work I had to shift my working hours, so I would leave super early (~6 AM) and come home around 3PM. It definitely didn't feel sustainable but it worked out (now I WFH...and in LA I lived right next to my lab...so I still avoid driving).

robocat2• 1 year ago

Bangalore > Uber because the traffic is insane

Robotaxis can't deal with insane traffic, and would be disadvantaged when aggressive drivers learn how to trick robotaxis to give way submissively.

Some countries have highly developed road systems that are more predictable, and where drivers are more likely to cooperate rather than aggressively defect.

enaaem• 1 year ago

The business of robotaxis is equivalent to the business of cheap taxis, and we know cheap taxi services are not trillion dollar companies.

Hamuko4• 1 year ago

Don't forget: they're also on the humanoid robot fantasy.

SilverBirch• 1 year ago

I'm not sure what you mean by Tesla's EV fantasy being a bust? In the last decade they've got from delivering 75k cars a year to delivering 1.8m cars a year. It's not a fantasy, it happened. Now, the stock price isn't based on the reality of the fundamental economics of a car company, but they didn't fail with EVs, they succeeded.

rsynnott3• 1 year ago

The fantasy was that Tesla would somehow become the only electric car maker, or indeed the only car maker. This was obviously stupid, but it was the only way that the valuation would make any sort of sense.

vel0city• 1 year ago

Robotaxi isn't even a new fantasy. In April 2019 Elon Musk said Model 3's would make their owners money participating in the autonomous ride-hailing fleet.

jqpabc12312• 1 year ago

He forgot to mention one small little detail --- owners would have to ride along to supervise their "autonomous" vehicle. Otherwise, they will be sued for negligence when (not if) the "Full Self Driving" screws up.

thinkingtoilet• 1 year ago

The decline has nothing to do with projections and promises and everything to do with Elon alienating a huge part of potential customers. I was someone who went from wanting a Tesla to never buying one as long as Elon own a single share in the company.

hearsathought• 1 year ago

the Tesla EV fantasy is now a bust.

Tesla is still one of a handful of trillion dollar companies. Maybe it will be a bust, but it isn't one today.

Uber P/E is about 20. Tesla P/E is around 170.

So the expectation is tesla will continue to grow at a significant rate while uber "stagnates".

I personally don't think so.

Investors do. I'm surprised how well the stock is doing given the all the distractions. It certainly isn't trading like it is about to bust.

reaperducer• 1 year ago

It's pretty safe to say that after a decade of unfulfilled projections and promises, the Tesla EV fantasy is now a bust.

I guess historically, lots of companies have operated by selling dreams.

The real estate industry sells dreams of suburban utopias.

The fitness industry sells dreams of sexy good times.

The cola industry sells dreams of likability and friendship.

Apple sells dreams of in-crowd later-day eco-hipsterism.

Tesla sells… dunno. Maybe dreams of billionaire crypto-bro futurism?

As long as the company is worth $900B+, you're never going to convince its fans that they're wrong.

Even if the stockholders all lost everything, I think a significant portion will still think they were following the messiah, the same way that old ladies give their last three pennies to tele-vangelists while eating cat food off of paper plates.

jqpabc12312• 1 year ago

I guess historically, lots of companies have operated by selling dreams.

Among it's peers, Tesla has no equal in the "dream" category.

Tesla is one of the "Magnificent 7" technology stocks. Leaving Tesla aside, the average P/E of this group over the last 2 years is around 30. Tesla is currently around 170.

But even this doesn't really capture the full extent of the Tesla "dream". Tesla is the only one of these stocks with an earnings decline over the past 2 years.

The highest valuation combined with the poorest results --- that's a lot of dreaming.

ryandvm• 1 year ago

Can we please stop calling it "robotaxi"? There's a fucking person being paid to sit in the car, who honestly has to be even more bored and awkward feeling than an uber driver. It's about as robotic as a carnival ride with some guy being paid to maybe press a red button.

God, I would love to see an AMA from one of these guys that have to sit in a seat with their hands folded staring at the road 8 hours a day.

leesec6• 1 year ago

You're skimming over the fact that the car is doing 99.999% of everything

jqpabc12312• 1 year ago

Can we please stop calling it "robotaxi"?

Talk to Elon. He has "Robotaxi" painted on the side of his vehicles.

leesec6• 1 year ago

Not sure what you're talking about. Model Y was best selling car in the world last two years. That's a bust?

tim333• 1 year ago

Musk's new Tesla pitch is they are going to sell ten robots for every human. Just multiply some profit times 80bn robots and the stock is way underpriced!

In some ways the Tesla EV fantasy has worked - build a high priced car to finance a medium priced car to finance cheap cars and move the world to sustainable transport. The only difference is the cheap cars are being made by Chinese manufacturers rather than Tesla.

Which is actually in line with their thing on patents:

Tesla Motors was created to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport. If we clear a path to the creation of compelling electric vehicles, but then lay intellectual property landmines behind us to inhibit others, we are acting in a manner contrary to that goal. Tesla will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use our technology. (2014)

submeta• 1 year ago

I am not gonna touch a Tesla again. Not because I didn’t like the product, but because of Elon. I‘m done with that brand.

monkeyelite• 1 year ago

Optimism used to be so high in this forum. People would call you a Luddite for questioning the stock price. I wonder if we could do a search to compare individuals change in sentiment from ~2018.

dfedbeef2• 1 year ago

hmm I wonder what changed between 2018 and 2025

dfedbeef2• 1 year ago

you're right tho :)

eknkc• 1 year ago

The Model Y refresh happened this quarter and they basically had no deliveries for a month or something. Probably had an impact.

I'm not sure how this goes in the long term though, likely to worse. For example BYD sold almost twice the number of cars in the same period and they don't seem to be slowing down.

nine_k• 1 year ago

I'm afraid that customers are more price-sensitive now, and a BYD definitely can sell for less than a Tesla.

bigtones• 1 year ago

BYD is definitely slowing down. They are cutting prices to increase domestic demand and have cut back worker shifts at their Chinese factories from three to two per day.

baggachipz• 1 year ago

That was last quarter.

arghandugh3• 1 year ago

Remember when Elon cornered his employee and flashed his cock at her and begged her for sex and when she refused he offered to buy her a horse because he’s a shameless degenerate?

gwd2• 1 year ago

That's the kind of thing you don't post without a reference.

arghandugh3• 1 year ago

You can use the “internet” to search “Elon + horse” and “self serve” your curiosity.

ceejayoz5• 1 year ago

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/20/1100356233/elon-musk-sexual-m...

The woman says Musk asked her friend to perform sex acts in exchange for him buying her a horse. Earlier, the flight attendant had reportedly been encouraged to learn how to give massages.
The flight attendant filed a sexual misconduct claim against Musk, and SpaceX paid her $250,000 in 2018 as part of a settlement that's bound by non-disclosure and non-disparagement clauses, Insider reported.

t1234s• 1 year ago

Is there any downside to buying a used Tesla directly from Tesla? They sort of have a refurbished apple store vibe and give you an extra 1yr warranty on top of the existing warranty.

AndroidKitKat• 1 year ago

I bought a used Model 3 w/ FSD from Tesla and didn't regret it one bit. The car was not perfect (paint chips, windshield nicks, etc. normal car wear), but that comes with used car territory. I just went with Tesla directly since I've read that used car lots don't always do the best job accurately describing the software capabilities of the car (Intel or Ryzen / HW3 or HW4 / FSD outright or FSD subscription or not). If you're just interested in the car and not any of the software, then I'd go with whatever can get you a good price.

I ended up selling the Model 3 last November and getting a new Model Y when they had a 0% APR + FSD transfer promotion running. If you're interested in FSD try to find a newer Model Y (mid 2023ish) or any refresh Model 3 for HW4.

ChrisArchitect• 1 year ago

Tesla sales drop for fifth month in a row in Europe

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44416780

spacemadness4• 1 year ago

And yet the stock won’t drop and financial news is reporting it as “deliveries dropped less than feared.” There are no adults left in the world.

Tesla reports 14% decline in deliveries, marking second year-over-year drop

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