The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2025/03/24/will-jesus-christ-return-in-an-election-year/

by surprisetalk • 1 year ago

326 548 1 year ago

ericneyman.wordpress.com

quuxplusone• 1 year ago

The title is kind of the opposite of clickbait — but the actual article is pretty neat. Reminds me of Matt Levine.

k3102• 1 year ago

[flagged]

jordanb• 1 year ago

[flagged]

codr73• 1 year ago

It's not about the money but the ego.

The two are very difficult to separate though, I've met very few who could handle a lot of money without becoming corrupted.

pixl97• 1 year ago

Hence the Gospel of Supply Side Jesus, remade in the image of America.

https://imgur.com/gallery/gospel-of-supply-side-jesus-bCqRp

Boogie_Man3• 1 year ago

It is important to contextualize this statement. It appears in three gospels, but in each it is in response to a rich man asking what he must do to inherit eternal life. Each instance of the story is told with slightly different emphasis (or they could be similar stories - i.e. this was his standard "line" for rich people), but Luke's account includes 18:27 He replied, "What is impossible for mere humans is possible for God" NET

This does not mean it's okay to hoard wealth at the expense of others, of course.

I think that Saint Basil the Great's sermon to the rich[1] is instructive for a historical and reasonable Christian instruction on the rich.

Let me add an excerpt I really appreciate: But how do you make use of money? By dressing in expensive clothing? Won’t two yards of tunic suffice you, and the covering of one coat satisfy all your need of clothes? But is it for food’s sake that you have such a demand for wealth? One bread-loaf is enough to fill a belly. Why are you sad, then? What have you been deprived of? The status that comes from wealth? But if you would stop seeking earthly status, you should then find the true, resplendent kind that would conduct you into the kingdom of heaven.

And one more because I can't help myself: Since, then, the wealth still overflows, it gets buried underground, stashed away in secret places.... A strange madness, that, when gold lies hidden with other metals, one ransacks the earth; but after it has seen the light of day, it disappears again beneath the ground.

(The whole thing is worth a read, Basil just went hard non stop)

1. https://stjohngoc.org/st-basil-the-greats-sermon-to-the-rich...

kubb• 1 year ago

You just need to employ the right strategy to deal with it. Possible options include:

  1. Claim that "camel" or "needle" are a mistranslation or symbolic.
  2. Separate financial life from your spiritual beliefs to avoid inner conflict.
  3. View wealth as a sign of God’s blessing or something used to do good, making it feel morally acceptable.
  4. Emphasize other passages that support generosity or success.

In general, it's easy to overcome cognitive dissonance in religion. You just accept additional beliefs that soften it.

recursivedoubts4• 1 year ago

That is not true: with God all things are possible.

arp2422• 1 year ago

With modern technology you can probably liquefy a camel sufficiently that you force it through the needle. Jesus ain't said nothing 'bout no hydrochloric acid and pneumatic presses.

ipython• 1 year ago

There’s a whole sect who believes the opposite- that you are more spiritual and blessed by God the wealthier you are. Somehow being material wealthy is now a signal of your spirituality. :shrug:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology

preachermon• 1 year ago

What's missed is that the camel/needle thing is a joke.

The "eye of the needle" was a (very small) gate into Jerusalem.

To get a camel through that gate, it has to lower its head and crawl on its knees.

So Jesus was calling rich people camels; camels can be very arrogant beasts so it fits.

victorbjorklund8• 1 year ago

It is not that easy. If we look at historical context we can see that for example in judaism they have this midrash:

"The Holy One said, open for me a door as big as a needle's eye and I will open for you a door through which may enter tents and camels."

Sounds familiar? The meaning of that saying in jewish context is that we cant really understand Gods abilities.

Could the christian saying mean something else? Sure. We dont even know if jesus even said that exact phrase.

My point is more that there are often more than one interpretation of vague sayings from 2000 years that been through an oral tradition, translations and copying.

bitbang• 1 year ago

That’s not what that means at all, your inserting modern values into the parable. In the culture of that time, the rich were viewed with high regard. The understanding was that if you were rich, then clearly you were in a favorable relationship to God because he was blessing you with wealth. With that understanding, the sentence that directly follows the parable makes a lot more sense: “When the disciples heard this, they were greatly astonished, saying, ‘Who then can be saved?’” A modern telling of the parable would replace the rich man with a monk who’s taken a vow of poverty to run an orphanage in a God-forsaken third world country. The parable was intended to portray an absurdly impossible standard to entry; the whole point being that human merit, status, or morality, regardless of however the cultural context may define that, does not afford one any distinctive advantage before God.

hatradiowigwam5• 1 year ago

The message IS clear...but I don't see the same message as you. Solomon was /beyond/ rich. So was David. So were countless people that are destined for heaven(as in, Jesus describes them being in heaven in the new testament).

Those people all did some things we can see and talk about - and possibly many things we did not see, do not know, and can not talk about. At the very least, those people we know are in/destined for heaven: followed God, feared God, obeyed God.

I don't believe their being or not being rich is part of the calculus for "getting into heaven" as you said. Being rich may make you less likely to do those 3 things though, in which case you would correlate richness with not getting into heaven.

lurk23• 1 year ago

Wealth is not universally maligned in the Biblical tradition. Job is afforded material rewards in this world after his tribulation.

Prosperity gospel is plainly contradicted by the Bible (see again: The Book of Job), but so is the Redditor Christianity you are espousing.

ImJamal2• 1 year ago

You are just wrong. The Bible never says that rich people aren't getting into heaven. Only that it will be difficult.

wavemode• 1 year ago

Have you ever even read the passage?

25 It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God.”
26 And they were greatly astonished, saying among themselves, “Who then can be saved?”
27 But Jesus looked at them and said, “With men it is impossible, but not with God; for with God all things are possible.”

codr73• 1 year ago

And I seriously doubt he would approve of Christianity as practiced in general.

DougN7• 1 year ago

Well as practiced by supposed believers. He said there will be many to whom he’ll say “I never knew you”. And I expect they’ll be actually surprised, until they really compare their actions to what he taught.

1234letshaveatw• 1 year ago

non-believers always seem to be the expert in that sort of thing

tartuffe78• 1 year ago

He's coming back as a lion though right? We seem primed for authoritarian Jesus (in America at least)

freedomben22• 1 year ago

Yes exactly, first time he came as lamb, next time as a lion. It's going to be ugly, and people rejecting him isn't going to stop it.

Disclaimer: No longer a believer so take with a grain of salt

roywiggins• 1 year ago

If he shows up like he does in Revelation it's going to be a bit more dramatic than the first time around.

blooalien3• 1 year ago

If he shows up like he does in Revelation it's going to be a bit more dramatic than the first time around.

Yeah, for sure. They'd best hope that he don't return anytime soon if the Christian bible's description of his return has any validity to it, because he's supposed to return with a flaming sword and a host of angels behind him, and he's likely to be raging pissed at the majority of (Christian) humanity for the way they've twisted his words and teachings.

hatradiowigwam5• 1 year ago

Statistics and wagering aside, IMO, he'd fair poorly (like the previous visit).

If I remember correctly...his first visit was prophesied to end exactly as it did. His next visit is prophesied to be a little different - to paraphrase...he is coming with an army to make war on the beast and all [humans] who follow him. Instead of a spotless robe like earlier depictions - this robe is drenched in blood, and he has a sword coming out of his mouth. Here's the passage immediately following description of this second coming(Revelations 19).

“Come, gather together for the great supper of God, 18so that you may eat the flesh of kings, generals, and the mighty, of horses and their riders, and the flesh of all people, free and slave, great and small.”

I don't think this visit is supposed to be like the previous one. I strongly encourage you all read this book(the bible) and take it to heart. You aren't my friend, or someone that I know - but it would give me no pleasure at all to know you were spending eternity in hell. We don't get down seeing people suffer, or "you'll all be sorry when you see I'm right!!!" style feelings. If those true believers seem like a bunch of elitist jerks who are always putting you down instead of helping you up, those are /NOT/ true believers. Those are true assholes.

Tijdreiziger12• 1 year ago

But what evidence supports the theory of heaven and hell?

I mean, according to the Hindus and Buddhists, we’ll be reincarnated rather than going to heaven/hell.

We could read the Bible, or the Qur’ān, or the Vēdas, or the Buddhist scriptures, or any other religious text… but how would we know whether any of them holds truth?

dangus5• 1 year ago

I strongly encourage you all read this book(the bible) and take it to heart. You aren't my friend, or someone that I know - but it would give me no pleasure at all to know you were spending eternity in hell.

IMO, you are also an elitist jerk by telling non-believers that they will be going to hell for not believing your religion, a religion which 69% of the entire world does not believe.

What kind of god creates beings only to punish the majority of them with hellfire? Why would god allow alternative religions to be created just to "trick" his creations into believing the wrong thing? And why would I want to worship that god if that's all true?

krapp4• 1 year ago

I propose a corollary to Godwin's Law whereby as any internet discussion of religion progresses, the chances of a Christian trying to proselytize approaches 1. Call it God-Botherers Law.

xwowsersx2• 1 year ago

fare* poorly

k3102• 1 year ago

Typo. I believe I checked the difference between fare and faire, and chose fare (even it reminded me of a subway token). And it came out fair.

Perils of posting late at night, I guess. hattip.

tomhow3• 1 year ago

This comment and subthread has nothing to do with the central topic of the article. It's the epitome of a generic tangent, and has caused just the kind of hellish flamewar that we are most trying to avoid on Hacker News.

Please read the guidelines, particularly these ones, and make an effort to observe them in future.

Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive.

Please don't fulminate.

Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes.

Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. It tramples curiosity.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

hbbio• 1 year ago

The elephant in the room is who controls/decides on the outcome.

See https://decrypt.co/311634/polymarket-allegations-oracle-mani...

Sniffnoy4• 1 year ago

This is in no way unmentioned in the article! It doesn't consider this a big factor, but it absolutely mentions it.

thefourthchime• 1 year ago

Bump!

seeknotfind• 1 year ago

The True Believers hypothesis rings false because that would be a frankly ridiculous belief to hold. Sometimes people profess ridiculous things, but very few of them put their money where their mouth is on prediction markets.

It sounds like the author is saying the belief is ridiculous in general. However, if Jesus returns, then the believers would ascend to heaven. So, they would not be able to cash out.

What if polymarket put in the money to drive people to vote on the no side? It could be quite a marketing stunt.

yabones• 1 year ago

Calling my bookie to run some numbers on Pascal's Wager...

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal%27s_wager)

blendergeek• 1 year ago

This article fails to address that most true believers would not see any point to betting on the yes. If Christ returns this year, the world is done and there is no upside to having bet that he would. Temporal things (like prediction markets) will cease to be interesting when Christ returns. Given that, I highly doubt that the people betting yes actually believe that Christ will return this year.

PaulHoule• 1 year ago

... and a lot of those folks don't think you should gamble! But really if it happened you wouldn't have any need for money, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sermon_on_the_Mount

wslh• 1 year ago

Jokes aside, it would be interesting to see if the people betting "yes" are also placing predictions on events after 2025 since truly believing in Christ's return that year should make many irrelevant.

scarmig• 1 year ago

You'd still want to hedge.

NoMoreNicksLeft2• 1 year ago

This would be less revealing than you'd hope. If NASA did a press conference this afternoon telling you that there was an inbound planet-killer that would annihilate us in six weeks, you'd still brush your teeth tonight. It wouldn't be that you'd didn't believe them either, it's that your mind isn't rational in the way that we like to flatter ourselves. Your mind's this big burlap sack of agents, and they aren't in perfect sync. The one that tells you what will happen in 24 months isn't the same one that plans out your routines... the latter can still have you behaving in ways that make no sense considering the strongly-confident predictions of the former.

There is evidence of this everywhere, in nearly every person you meet. Including yourself. If even skeptical atheists act that way, why would the bible-thumpers be different? If they weren't different, how would that be an indictment of their belief?

ebiester• 1 year ago

Is the purpose to collect money, or is it to proselytize? It may as well be a "Keep the name of Jesus and the thought of his return relevant"

bsza• 1 year ago

More basic than that, I doubt he would take kindly to people placing bets on him.

reverendsteveii5• 1 year ago

I'll never skip an opportunity to point out that of all the evil he faced, only the financiers were actually able to drive Jesus to the point of violence.

tboyd474• 1 year ago

Not true. The majority of people who actually believe Jesus will return are Muslims who believe he will oversee an earthly kingdom for 7 years. The world doesn't end with that event.

cvoss2• 1 year ago

Not sure if you are making a nuanced claim about the proportions of self-identified adherents who actually subscribe to orthodoxies, but the population statistics generally cut against your claim.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/374704/share-of-global-p...

flir2• 1 year ago

[flagged]

victorbjorklund8• 1 year ago

And when there were no mass deaths they claimed it was because everyone got a fake shoot instead with water.

Which makes no sense at all. There is an evil conspiracy to kill everyone with a vaccine but then the conspiracists (guess doctors?) just give everyone a fake dose instead.

mrguyorama3• 1 year ago

Even worse, they spend every cent on stupid prepper bullshit like freeze dried rations!

Rations will not help you or your family if civilization breaks down. Without a literal army, you are no more powerful than the ones who did nothing to prepare. All rations do is ensure that you starve to death a month later than expected.

Even better, those of you that collected guns and ammo as a hobby are about as prepared as the people who jokingly collect bottle caps in reference to Fallout. You have ensured you die first.

If you are not currently capable of planting, tending, and harvesting an entire acre of potatoes every year, you will not survive post civilization. If you do not have a stable of oxen and a simple machine shop to repair the old fashioned steel plow you own, you will not survive. If you do not already have fully formed pest control, without chemical inputs or external solutions, you will not survive.

It took humanity thousands of years to develop agriculture. Farming isn't a game. You will not pick it up after the end of civilization. You will not get it right on the first try. You will not reinvent it while hungry. Even if you get lucky and nothing goes wrong for a few growing seasons, you WILL have a failed crop eventually, and you will starve. Even successful farming is an eventual death sentence without civilization.

People who prep for "after the end" are not serious people. If you had a serious concern about the potential fall of civilization, you would not buy food and bullets, you would be throwing every resource you have at improving democratic representation and access, to prevent civilization from falling.

It might not be possible to restart if we kill it.

Prepping is like trying to develop a backup strategy after the datacenter has already burned down. Even if you are successful, have you really, honestly, considered what success looks like?

im3w1l• 1 year ago

This assumes belief must be absolute. They may have believed it was 90% likely, 51% likely or even just 10% likely (even a 10% risk of mass death is arguably unacceptable and worth crowing about).

NoMoreNicksLeft2• 1 year ago

There is the potential for psychology, I think, where people who do not truly believe but that do want that religion (or something like it) to be true, and so perversely hope for "Christ's return" even if that means they will be damned. For them, they will have gotten to witness something non-boring, something truly important, even for the first time (and last) in their lives. I can't decide if this fits the definition of "believer" or not.

jl6• 1 year ago

Pascal’s middle children of history.

reverendsteveii5• 1 year ago

Performing faith has significant social value. It's not that they expect they'll want the money after the bet pays off, it's that they want to show everyone else how sure they are that this is definitely going to happen because when they do a bunch of people they consider to be peers will shower them in praise and validation.

DebtDeflation• 1 year ago

Wouldn't the inverse be true also? Why would non-believers bet yes? If they lose (which they see as the near certain case) they're out the money, if they win the money doesn't really offset eternal damnation. Seems like betting no is the only smart play regardless of personal beliefs.

tempestn2• 1 year ago

Except for the actual logical reason presented in the post.

dragonwriter11• 1 year ago

If Christ returns this year, the world is done

If you believe in the literal statement about only 144,000 people being saved and in a pre-tribulation rapture, then “the world is done” only applies to a trivially small number of people.

masfuerte2• 1 year ago

I'm not a theologian, but if this were to happen I don't suppose the unsaved would be able to peacefully play the prediction markets during the tribulation. It sounds bad.

downrightmike• 1 year ago

True, but most Christianity, esp in the USA is truly anti-Christ

Sniffnoy4• 1 year ago

That's an argument in support of the article's thesis, not against it. It doesn't make sense to say that the article doesn't "address" it. It's true that it doesn't mention it, but there's no sense in phrasing that like it's an argument against the article's point!

zahlman5• 1 year ago

The primary reason to bet on something outlandish sounding is to take advantage of some inefficiency or other in the market.

JKCalhoun3• 1 year ago

I feel like it looks good on your rap sheet when you go before St. Peter. Maybe get a pardon of sorts?

einpoklum2• 1 year ago

Markets will cease to be interesting?

I see you have not yet been blessed by the gospel of Supply-Side Jesus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc-LJ_3VbUA

wubrr• 1 year ago

It could also be a way of showing just how much they believe - 'Jesus will return in X years and I'm willing to bet all I have on it!'

hinkley13• 1 year ago

God forbid you become rich at the last possible moment and then damn yourself for eternity in the process.

Doesn’t the Bible frown on gambling anyway?

yieldcrv3• 1 year ago

In one prominent flavor of Christian lore, there would be 7 years where nothing happened except for the people that go missing during the rapture in an instant.

bawolff2• 1 year ago

Hypothetically, its an expensive commitment that proves one's faith. Anyone can say jesus is coming, but less people are willing to put their money where their mouth is.

The upside isn't the important part - the downside is. It proves that you really believe what you say.

This happens all the time with countries when they are negotiating. E.g. Russia is pretty unimpressed when countries say they are going to give ukraine weapons unless there is a ceasefire. Its all cheap talk. If one of the countries bought the weapons first (that they otherwise would not of) and then threatens to give them to ukraine, its much more credible since they have sunk money into it.

Or you could look at the animal kingdom with energy expensive mating rituals. The point is to waste resources in order to prove your commitment.

Examples of this sort of thing show up all over the world.

pj_mukh• 1 year ago

Also, if Christ did return, the first thing he's doing is probably whipping traders. So watch out Polymarket users!

zombot2• 1 year ago

It would be deeply un-American to believe in something that wouldn't make you rich.

ty6853• 1 year ago

High probability bets on polymarket usually pay worse than the prevailing interest rate, and on top of that you have to deal with counterparty risk.

Supercompressor• 1 year ago

This is mentioned in the link.

delichon• 1 year ago

   The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

I'm too skeptical to believe that a source is credible if that source claims any resurrection, let alone of a messiah. If a man who looks just like Jesus in the images showed up and performed all of the same miracles, I still wouldn't believe it. I wouldn't believe it if the Pope declared it true, or something claiming to be God announced it into my ear.

At the very least they should name the credible sources in advance, because the bet is on their credulity.

tempestn2• 1 year ago

This is actually interesting. What would make you believe it? Is there any evidence at all?

I agree that almost anything I can think of would be more likely some kind of trick. Or in the most extreme examples I'd have to assume there's a good chance I was experiencing some kind of psychosis. So I'm not sure I could actually be convinced either. I suppose if I personally witnessed clearly impossible miracles being performed and multiple people I know and trust corroborated what I was seeing, that might do it.

haunter• 1 year ago

It’s not a betting market though but a prediction market. There is no house and odds.

paulryanrogers3• 1 year ago

[flagged]

ivape9• 1 year ago

Keep in mind true believers often learn to live with a massive cognitive dissonance

This is quite true. Taking away just the moral teachings is not true belief. Revelations is serious business stuff, the apostles watched Christ ascend from Mount Olive, it’s extremely trippy things. True believers are literally believing in wild shit. In fact, if you are true believer, you almost need to keep it hidden because it’s going to come off as mentally ill.

With that said, I somehow can’t seem to deny it anymore because reality is just not explainable. Reality is the most ridiculous explanation for why the Big Bang happened and we’re all just here in a perfect little globe. This “real” explanation is so batshit that the supernatural explanation is more sound - at least to me.

The closest science has gotten was to actually corroborate that, yes, this was all not infinite and had a starting point (big bang), literally corroborated let there be light. The quantum stuff just gets even more supernatural. Maybe I’m going mentally ill, but I tend to take the supernatural stuff quite seriously now.

foxygen• 1 year ago

What is so special about reality?

fragmede• 1 year ago

The popular stories/proverbs aren't too unbelievable, but Ezekiel 10 discusses the four wheels besides the cherubim. These wheels are celestial beings that see all. Diablo (the video game) draws from this. This is not a comment on your mental status, but that some of the stuff in the Christian Bible are further out there than magic tricks by Jesus that Penn and Teller could replicate.

em-bee20• 1 year ago

depends how you define a true believer. i am not christian, but i would claim that the people you describe aren't true believers because they haven't really understood the bible.

wat100009• 1 year ago

There’s “science doesn’t adequately explain the origins of the universe,” and then there’s “this particular middle eastern tribe had the right answers thousands of years ago.” I can see the former but the latter makes no sense.

texuf• 1 year ago

Do you think it's weird that ethnic groups separated by thousands of years of evolution came up with completely different gods and forms of worship? If there was an omniscient being don't you think it would make itself known in a little more universal fashion? And isn't it strange that the institutions built around our current iteration of God are soft power structures that wield huge amounts of influence both financially and politically?

michaelmrose5• 1 year ago

If you think quantum = supernatural you just didn't understand the topic.

It ought to be telling that all the woo woo comes from people who don't know anything.

1-more• 1 year ago

The closest science has gotten was to actually corroborate that, yes, this was all not infinite and had a starting point (big bang), literally corroborated let there be light.

Georges Lemaître, one of the original articulators of the Big Bang was a Catholic priest. He did not appreciate Pope Pius XII characterizing his research as confirming "let there be light." There are many references to criticism he received for publishing a theory that meshed well with "let there be light," however I am not able to find any primary sources for them.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_Lema%C3%AEtre#Views_on...

joshstrange• 1 year ago

In fact, if you are true believer, you almost need to keep it hidden because it’s going to come off as mentally ill.

Even agreeing on what a "True Believer" is would be impossible but, from what I have read of the bible and know from 18+ years in the church I agree. As I child I got in trouble a few times for suggesting we take the concepts in the bible to their logical end. Things like:

- If we really believe all these people will burn in hell then why aren't we all becoming missionaries?

Then when I learned about "age of accountability" [0] I had 2 questions:

- If there is no age set on the age of accountability (to account for people living in remote areas who never heard the word of god) then isn't being a missionary and going to those places damning some percentage of them to hell if they don't accept jesus as their lord and savior? Aren't you making it worse? Even if you are able to "save" 60% you've damned the other 40% when before you visiting 100% would never have met the "age of accountability" due to never hearing about jesus?

and the much more horrifying question (note: I was 6 or 7 at the time)

- If the the age of accountability is real, and if our time on earth is truly inconsequential compared to eternity in heaven then (AGAIN: I was a child, I want just following logical chains), isn't the best option to kill everyone before that age so they will live for eternity in heaven?

Needless to say none of these questions were appreciated and all of them resulted in anger from the adults I mentioned it to. It taught me from a very young age how to lie or obscure what I thought/believed since voicing it or even asking innocent questions got me in trouble for reasons I could not understand. Perhaps there are logical flaws in my questions that a biblical scholar could point out but all I got was the fury of people too invested in a myth to question it.

[0] Concept that if you are younger than it and you die without being "saved" then you will still go to heaven because, essentially, you didn't know any better. There is no age defined since people reach that state at different ages and, IIRC, it even accounts for people who never hear the word of god and thus don't have an opportunity to be saved.

leptons2• 1 year ago

I like Feynman's take that "I don't feel frightened by not knowing things, by being lost in the mysterious universe without having any purpose which is the way it really is as far as I can tell"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1RqTP5Unr4

The true believers in Christianity have to know, their world view is hinged on knowing that there is a god, that the world was created in 7 days, and that the earth is only 6,000 years old, among many other questionable religious beliefs. They're wrong about all of it (IMHO as someone who grew up Catholic), but at least in their own minds, they know. And that's good enough for them, they don't have to ask any more questions because a book written by kings told them so.

tengwar27• 1 year ago

Revelations is problematic if you attempt to take it literally rather than understanding that it makes heavy use of symbolism and other literary devices. That literalism is largely specific to American society - and I don't just mean American Christians here. It's not particularly easy to understand the way that ancient literature works, but even if you don't want to put in the time, it's important to understand that the writers were often quite sophisticated, and worked in different ways from what you are used to.

api2• 1 year ago

[flagged]

water-data-dude• 1 year ago

I feel like some of the angels would probably be able to calculate very large primes easily. I’m not an angeloligist, but maybe the ones that are wheels all covered in eyes.

Der_Einzige• 1 year ago

Of course they would have money in heaven. Some people are in a little bit more of a paradise than others I guess...

klipt• 1 year ago

Is that how the rich men are squeezing into heaven these days?

"It is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of the needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of heaven"

There's a theory that the eye of the needle was a narrow gate in Jerusalem's city wall that was notoriously hard for camels to squeeze through. But seems the hard evidence for that is limited.

er4hn• 1 year ago

Only if you can also take the worldwide network and infrastructure that make it possible. Though a room full of human computers processing math out loud to send wealth around seems more associated with another part of the afterlife ;)

JKCalhoun3• 1 year ago

I feel like they accept crypto in Hell only.

krageon• 1 year ago

You either believe everything will be over or you're a heretic. Not really any flavours to be had.

nkrisc• 1 year ago

Sure there are, because your flavor is right and the others are wrong.

yndoendo• 1 year ago

Religion is ignorance of reality. I choose reality and reject ignorance.

achierius2• 1 year ago

The large majority of Christians do not believe in any sort of 'Rapture'.

bobmcnamara• 1 year ago

Well of course - those heretics were descended from those excommunicated in the 1500s.

vintermann3• 1 year ago

Come back and reign for a thousand years, but not touch private contact law and definitively let you keep and enjoy the fruits of the money you bet on him.

Yeah, I won't rule out that they exist, but I think there are far better ways of "betting on Jesus" according to most denominations. I think price fluctuations in a market like this is more down to people betting on a bigger fool coming along, or otherwise convinced themselves that they can make money off this without actually believing in the outcome.

MisterTea• 1 year ago

Yeah, I won't rule out that they exist,

Word of Faith/Prosperity churches - God is a genie.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Word_of_Faith

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosperity_theology

wahern3• 1 year ago

Come back and reign for a thousand years, but not touch private contact law and definitively let you keep and enjoy the fruits of the money you bet on him.

Modern Evangelical Christian movements have from the beginning incorporated (classically) liberal political theory, including economic theory, into their theology, not merely their ethics (as almost all faiths must do to some extent). But more recently there has been incorporation of more (classically) illiberal libertarian and conservative ideas in their theology. Someone else pointed out Prosperity Gospel, but the new hotness is the idea that charity and empathy is un-Christian. (Or to steel man it, the idea is that excessive charity and empathy is un-Christian, but that begs alot of questions and arguably invites more self-serving utilitarian line drawing--the movement presupposes that contemporary American political culture is too charitable and empathetic.)

hinkley13• 1 year ago

John Goodman’s character in O Brother was a man who realized selling bibles was a lucrative business. He was a con man.

I think you’re on the right track. It’s not the betters but the bookie who you need to look askance at here.

lo_zamoyski6• 1 year ago

I presume your experience is limited to the parochial world of American Evangelical Christianity, or perhaps anecdotal, informed by your experience with intellectually unsophisticated people. Dawkins and his ilk used to love to pick on these poor people, because it’s so easy, even for a philosophical and theological rube like Dawkins.

But you are certainly not describing the intellectual muscle and heft of the Catholic tradition. You don’t stand a chance.

Materialists, by contrast, either never realize the incoherence of their naive position, or double down, consigning themselves to ever greater absurdities (yes, I am looking at you, eliminativism).

paulryanrogers3• 1 year ago

There is no dissonance in Catholic faith / philosophy? No hoop jumping to explain why Biblical claims don't match the lived experience of most people?

kbrkbr2• 1 year ago

I'm genuinely curious. What would that be?

Judging by their creeds it's believing that Easter really happened, and that the highest being is a composition that must be explained in hard to understand greek ontological terms.

cvalka• 1 year ago

Get off your high horse. The muscle and heft of the Catholic tradition? LOL

aspenmayer9• 1 year ago

I think someone like Zizek could debate a Catholic.

DevKoala2• 1 year ago

What is the cognitive dissonance true believers learn to live with?

wahern3• 1 year ago

Presumably the conflict between an ostensibly scientific, materialist, atheistic reality of modernity and the non-empirical, spiritual, theistic reality of their faith. Though I think it's implicit in the criticism of religious believers that they resolve the dissonance by, e.g., rejecting scientific truths. And arguably the other side does the same, by rejecting the metaphysical; compare atheism to agnosticism, where the former rejects what the latter says it cannot logically do as core religious beliefs tend not to be falsifiable. Personally, I like F. Scott Fitzgerald's perspective--"the test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function." Dissonance is everywhere, including in the modern so-called evidence-based world, often inescapable, and perhaps even fundamental to the human experience.

freedomben22• 1 year ago

Just my opinion, I think at least a portion of them have to learn to live with "faith" being the answer to some hard questions. You also don't have to look hard for doctrines that are contradictory. For example: was Jesus human or God? (and keep in mind that God is traditinally viewed as tri-omni, meaning omnipotent, omniscient, and omnibenevolent)

Many times I've asked that I'm told "he was 100% human and also 100% God." I'm sure different sects believe differently on that, but plenty do accept that. When I ask "how is it possible to be 100% human and 100% God?" you'll sometimes get answers like, "well it's like water in different forms, ice, liquid, and vapor" but that doesn't answer the question (it answers a question about how Jesus and God the Father can both be God yet still be "monotheistic"). When pushed it has always come down to "some things have to be accepted on faith." That is obviously enough for plenty of people, but I personally find it insufficient. Back when I was a believer I had cognitive dissonance over that question that I somewhat learned to live with (obviously not entirely as I am no longer a believer, but it wasn't that question that led me to ultimately lose my faith).

DevKoala2• 1 year ago

Getting downvoted for asking a question lol.

physicles• 1 year ago

One data point: I took the first few chapters of Genesis literally until age 27. I also went through college as a physics major. I’m sure I embarrassed myself in debates with my atheist lab partner.

I loved science from when I was really young, read every book in my school library’s J523/Astronomy section, including Cosmos in 3rd grade. But I also went to church every week with my family, read through the entire Bible in middle school, and believed that my faith would crumble and I’d go to hell if I ever gave up the belief that the Bible was 100% true and literal.

I also chose to keep emotional distance from non-Christian friends. They might lead me astray.

I remember an exchange with my mom (who was a teacher, mostly at Lutheran schools) during a car ride when I was maybe 6 or 7. I was excitedly talking about the big bang or something, and she said “yes, but we know from the Bible that the earth is 6,000 years old, right?” “Yes,” I answered, and in that moment I believed it. I didn’t feel conflicted: the Bible must be true, so someday I’d figure out in what sense the science was true too.

As I got older, I sustained this by basically hand-waving away the less intuitive explanations for an old earth. There are plenty of books out there for helping people do just that. Maybe the speed of life was different in the past. What can we really say with certainty about evolution? That kind of thing.

The beginning of the end was the day I learned about dendrochronology: tree rings. They’re too simple to hand-wave away. Soon after, I lost my faith.

Another huge area of cognitive dissonance: we prayed all the time, we talked about “miracles”, but I never heard any really credible evidence for one. It took some serious introspection, while still a Christian, to discern whether I actually believed in them or not.

rxtexit• 1 year ago

You should read the book of the same name by Eric Hoffer.

It is an incredible book and a crime it is not a standard text in education.

munksbeer• 1 year ago

That prayer works.

(Many) true believers believe that prayer has the power to heal people. So if you pray for someone with cancer, and they get better, then it shows the power of prayer.

If you pray for someone with cancer, and they don't get better, then it was all part of God's plan.

This may not strictly meet the definition of cognitive dissonance, but it is close enough for me.

BizarroLand• 1 year ago

It shouldn't be Jesus but rather an intermediary that reigns for 1000 years, but during that time people shouldn't die and generally things should be pretty good for everyone.

atoav• 1 year ago

Not to be that guy, but I always wondered how "reign a 1000 years" square with the Jesus as he was in fact depicted in the bible. Didn't exactly strike me as the guy who would be interested in reigning, more like a guy who the people who acrually like to reign would get rid off because he's an uppity socialist that gives common folks ideas that make them demand more of their lives.

chrismorgan3• 1 year ago

It’s most easily shown in a couple of Paul’s letters and in Hebrews, but I think you might prefer what the gospels record Jesus saying; so I’ll suggest Matthew 25, especially towards the end, and some chunks in Luke 12 too, probably centring around verse 49. His first and second comings have quite different missions. You can also see the progression even in his lifetime in how he tried to help and teach the leaders at the start, but by the end he practically eviscerated the Pharisees for their unrepentant hypocrisy (Matthew 23).

There’s also the temptations of Jesus: skipping the pain and taking over (to fix things, as he will eventually) was a temptation to him. He had the power, he had to decide not to use it on himself. Consider also Gethsemane.

krapp4• 1 year ago

Jesus is like any other "mythological" figure[0] in that the narratives presented about him reflect the specific cultural and political biases of the authors, and serve to frame their particular agenda. It doesn't surprise me at all that the motif of "Jesus as conquering king" would make it into a Biblical canon commissioned by a king in part to solidify their claim of authority through divine right, while others might fall by the wayside and be declared heresies.

[0] not in the sense of being purely fictional - it's likely there was an actual "Jesus," supernatural claims aside - but in the sense of being mythologized and having stories written about oneself which may or may not be true but tend to form some cultural canon.

tomhow3• 1 year ago

This comment and subthread have nothing to do with the central topic of the article. It's the epitome of a generic tangent, and has caused just the kind of hellish flamewar that we are most trying to avoid on Hacker News.

(It currently has 276 replies, and I don't think any of them are about Polymarket or prediction markets, which is what the article is about.)

Please read the guidelines, particularly these ones, and make an effort to observe them in future.

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Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes.

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We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44126652 and marked it off topic.

jebarker• 1 year ago

How much does this kind of Time Value of Money effect and other similar effects determine trading in the stock market? i.e. just trading based on predictions about what other traders will do rather than just beliefs about the value of the underlying assets?

ivape9• 1 year ago

Things are supposed to get real bad before it happens. World War 2 should have been it really, but I guess even that wasn’t bad enough. The gospel has also not been preached to every nation, so there are billions that are unaware of it (this is a prerequisite).

em-bee20• 1 year ago

christianity has spread all over the world. it is being taught in every nation. all muslims know about jesus because mohammad too talks about him. buddhists and hindus have christian and muslim neighbors. so where are those unaware billions?

wiradikusuma2• 1 year ago

I read many comments that essentially say, "Today's (how we practice) Christianity/churches are definitely not something he'd approve of when he returns".

I live in the largest Muslim country in the world, and I'd say the majority of people also think that the "commercialization" (for lack of a better term) of their religion is also "too much". It seems people do have a "conscience" (for lack of a better term). But why do we still see people selling God on TV (and it sells)?

It's like people complaining about their government, but they don't take action.

Henchman21• 1 year ago

It’s reasonable to not like something and realize you alone are powerless to change it. The actions necessary at this point require collective action. This is exceptionally hard when the public’s opinion is sliced and diced like a fat sow.

hatradiowigwam5• 1 year ago

I live in the largest Muslim country in the world

Are you a Muslim? I have a question for you... if I crawled onto your doorstep beaten and starving, would you invite me in and feed you? I am ignorant of Muslim teachings, and I don't know if this sort of things is covered...that's why I'm asking you.

I'm a Christian, and if you crawled onto MY doorstep, I would be ashamed with myself if I did not invite you in and care for you.

If your faith urges you to help the helpless, and my faith urges me to help the helpless... why do Muslims and Christians seem so opposed? If the news is to believe, we're like matter and anti-matter, we can't be friends, and at some point it always devolves to violence from one or both of the sides.

judahmeek• 1 year ago

You should look up the free ebook by Bob Altemeyer called Authoritarians. It explains how religious organizations that highly value authority and discourage critical thinking get corrupted.

wiradikusuma2• 1 year ago

I'm not a Muslim, but I'm very sure it (and all religions, I suppose) has the same teachings.

In my opinion, they seem opposed because both religions claim to be the only source of truth and strongly try to spread that belief. It's like TAB vs SPACE, you can't have both in the same file, and ideally not in the same project.

enaaem• 1 year ago

There is a conspiracy theory going around that Trump is an Anti-Christ.

imchillyb4• 1 year ago

People do kind of worship at Trump's feet. The actual anti-christ is going to have a high priest that performs miracles in his presence. Like magic tricks but more real. The anti-christ is also going to receive a mortal head wound and resurrect 3 days later.

::shrug:: it's all laid out in the Bible. Jesus wasn't ambiguous about anything about Himself, or His opponent.

krapp4• 1 year ago

To be fair, everything about the Antichrist comes from John of Patmos and the Book of Revelations, not Jesus, and was probably about Nero Caesar[0].

[0] https://old.reddit.com/r/AcademicBiblical/comments/14nnbwt/w...

jihadjihad2• 1 year ago

A relevant passage in the gospels is as follows [0]:

Now as He sat on the Mount of Olives, the disciples came to Him privately, saying, “Tell us, when will these things be? And what will be the sign of Your coming, and of the end of the age?” And Jesus answered and said to them: “Take heed that no one deceives you. For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many. And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places. All these are the beginning of sorrows.
“Then they will deliver you up to tribulation and kill you, and you will be hated by all nations for My name’s sake. And then many will be offended, will betray one another, and will hate one another. Then many false prophets will rise up and deceive many. And because lawlessness will abound, the love of many will grow cold. But he who endures to the end shall be saved. And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in all the world as a witness to all the nations, and then the end will come.

Regardless of one's faith, from reading this text it is apparent that things would need to get substantially worse than they are today to warrant the return of Christ. In particular the part about being delivered up to tribulation--similar persecutions have happened in history but the scale necessary for such an event as described would be immense.

0: https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew%2024&ve...

akomtu2• 1 year ago

There is a more detailed prophecy of these events:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Masih_ad-Dajjal

"The Dajjal will imitate the miracles performed by Jesus, such as healing the sick and raising the dead, the latter done with the aid of demons. He will deceive many <...>"

As for the time of events, I find this the most compelling:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrological_age

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Year

Earth's polar axis slowly rotates, with a period of 26,000 years. This period is divided into 12 ages: the age of Aries, Pisces, Aquarius and so on. A lot of christian symbology revolves around sheep and fish. Symbolically speaking, 2000 years ago, Aries died to begin the age of Pisces. Similarly, in around 2150, Pisces will yield to Aquarius.

It's also interesting that the age of Aries is considered the last age of the 12, after which the next great cycle begins (see Pistis Sophia). Whether this has astronomical foundation is a question.

excalibur• 1 year ago

Everyone just seems to assume that whether Jesus has returned will be obvious and easily verifiable. As if they could prove that Jesus isn't already here.

imchillyb4• 1 year ago

Matthew 24:4-31 describes -the exact- method of His return. The description is very much like an alien force deceleration within our solar system, and arriving en masse. It'll be noticeable worldwide. Read this and tell me if there's any ambiguity.

---

4 And Jesus answered and said to them, “See to it that no one misleads you. 5 For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and they will mislead many people. 6 And you will be hearing of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for those things must take place, but that is not yet the end. 7 For nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom, and there will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 But all these things are merely the beginning of birth pains.

9 “Then they will hand you over to tribulation and kill you, and you will be hated by all nations because of My name. 10 And at that time many will fall away, and they will betray one another and hate one another. 11 And many false prophets will rise up and mislead many people. 12 And because lawlessness is increased, most people’s love will become cold. 13 But the one who endures to the end is the one who will be saved. 14 This gospel of the kingdom shall be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all the nations, and then the end will come.

15 “Therefore when you see the abomination of desolation which was spoken of through Daniel the prophet, standing in the holy place—let the reader understand— 16 then those who are in Judea must flee to the mountains. 17 Whoever is on the housetop must not go down to get things out of his house. 18 And whoever is in the field must not turn back to get his cloak. 19 But woe to those women who are pregnant, and to those who are nursing babies in those days! 20 Moreover, pray that when you flee, it will not be in the winter, or on a Sabbath. 21 For then there will be a great tribulation, such as has not occurred since the beginning of the world until now, nor ever will again. 22 And if those days had not been cut short, no life would have been saved; but for the sake of the elect those days will be cut short. 23 Then if anyone says to you, ‘Behold, here is the Christ,’ or ‘He is over here,’ do not believe him. 24 For false christs and false prophets will arise and will provide great signs and wonders, so as to mislead, if possible, even the elect. 25 Behold, I have told you in advance. 26 So if they say to you, ‘Behold, He is in the wilderness,’ do not go out; or, ‘Behold, He is in the inner rooms,’ do not believe them. 27 For just as the lightning comes from the east and flashes as far as the west, so will the coming of the Son of Man be. 28 Wherever the corpse is, there the vultures will gather.

29 “But immediately after the tribulation of those days the sun will be darkened, and the moon will not give its light, and the stars will fall from the sky, and the powers of the heavens will be shaken. 30 And then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in the sky, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of the sky with power and great glory. 31 And He will send forth His angels with a great trumpet blast, and they will gather together His elect from the four winds, from one end of the sky to the other.

---

Sun darkened. Heavens shaken. Loud trumpet sound. Host arriving. God didn't originate on Earth. Alien. Alien invasion. Re-invasion?

Neat huh? OH! Did you know the Bible also mentions a Dragon, called Leviathan. And zombies: "...they shall seek death and not find it. Death will flee from them..."

His story. Best story ever.

em-bee20• 1 year ago

the ambiguity is in the question on whether this should be taken literally.

also elsewhere it is stated that jesus will return like a thief in the night. so perhaps he was already here and most people haven't noticed.

nickpsecurity5• 1 year ago

We dont know the day or hour. Yet, the end won't come until the Gospel has reached all nations. Likely, people groups.

https://biblehub.com/matthew/24-14.htm

https://joshuaproject.net/

Jesus also warns that His message, the Gospel (GetHisWord.com), will be universally hated across the world by those who dont believe. The Devil will inspire people to censor it to prevent both people's sins being forgiven and godliness in nations. This is happening.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries...

https://www.persecution.com/

As for signs of the end, a number must happen. Many already happened or are happening. That should worry non-believers while friends of Christ are encouraged. I listed some here:

https://gethisword.com/signsofthetimes.html

A few more that may or may not be in the article.

God's Word predicts Jews wont worship in the temple despite taking their country back. They still can't today. Prophecy appears to say there will be a peace deal that lets them do that. Then, the situation will reverse.

Two prophets will be preaching and performing miracles before the whole world. YouTube and the Internet make that feasible.

The leaders will promote a new, world order. Important aspects will be a world government with one currency. Then, by a mark on the body or forehead, people will be allowed to buy or sell goods (or banned from participation). Our country's leaders, along with business leaders, keep pushing for the same thing in multinational organizations. We also have the tech to do it now.

So, there's a few, specific things to look for that will be easy to spot. Christians meanwhile resist attempts to create those things to give non-believers more time to hear the Gospel and repent. If they dont, Jesus says they go into a fiery furnace for the evils they did in their lifetime. Those receiving the mark... which they'll know requires rejecting Jesus as Lord... are tormented forever in the presence of the Lamb.

em-bee20• 1 year ago

interesting. what's the source for there being a world government with one currency?

nickpsecurity5• 1 year ago

GotQuestions often has Biblical answers to common questions. It has supporting data for this one:

https://www.gotquestions.org/one-world-government.html

I'll also add that the Bible teaches that Satan puts thoughts in people's heads, including rulers and business elites, to cause them to pr p mote his goals. If true, we will repeatedly see the same ideas pop up that the Bible warns about pushed top-down in many cultures. We'll also see them do damage over time.

So, in Revelation, it's a push for world governemnt, a single currency, and ability of governments to dictate both commerce and religion (esp universalism). In Old Testament, the pagans push subjectivism (eg polytheism/atheism), sexual immorality (esp homosexuality), exploitation of the poor, arrogant attitudes, violence, and sacrificing infants for more sex or money.

If we see these trends, we're to oppose them because God promises to punish them in Leviticus and Deuteronomy. Historical data confirms that most countries that did such things were destroyed in time. Often from the activities driven by their cultures. That's also why we not only share Christ and His Word but promote character education and righteous government.

(Note: Christians being mere humans beings redeemed from sin, but with a human nature, means they will often fall short of the above goals in politics and life in general. Sadly. Doesn't make it any less true, though.)

blooalien3• 1 year ago

As for signs of the end, a number must happen. Many already happened or are happening. That should worry non-believers while friends of Christ are encouraged.

I'm not sure why it should or would worry "non-believers" since by definition they don't believe, therefore ... what would they even have to worry about?

nickpsecurity5• 1 year ago

They didnt believe before the signs. God offers the signs as a proof. Also, it should be telling that only one religion even has proof it's true. Then, dominant philosophies of the world continue to do what it predicts, fail like it predicts, and more prophecies get fulfilled.

At some point, they have no excuse but to believe what's proven good and true. Christ and His Word.

conartist6• 1 year ago

I would hate to see this conversation get off topic so... did you bet?

nickpsecurity5• 1 year ago

Re off topic

The topic was about gambling on the return of Christ. I shared Biblical prophecy about the end times, including pre-conditions for Christ's return. That should establish whether such a wager would be correct or incorrect. Also, Christ commanded us to always share His Gospel and point people to Him when He is the topic.

Re my wager

Christ warned to have nothing to do with people who were making claims about His return before the Second Coming. That they're liars and schemers. See below in v26-27:

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matt.%2024&vers...

So, no I didnt bet. I'll also have nothing to do with that. I also think the Bible leans against gambling. It also becomes a household-destroying addiction for many. So, no to other forms of gambling, too.

delfinom• 1 year ago

[flagged]

guywithahat3• 1 year ago

Yes you, presumably someone who is not a christian and has never read the bible, know better than billions of christians and the millions of people who've actually read the bible.

I'm not religious, but this is a bad take.

bee_rider4• 1 year ago

“Socialist Jesus” is kind of a meme (or, maybe a blowback meme on Capitalist Jesus). But, he was apparently pretty into taking care of the poor, right?

lovich• 1 year ago

I read their comment as more of a critique on the actions of the "true" believers, not a critique of anything Jesus would do

plorg3• 1 year ago

Yes you, presumably someone who is not a christian and has never read the bible...
I'm not religious, but this is a bad take.

???

dfxm12• 1 year ago

If you ever do get around to reading the new testament, you'll find that Jesus is obviously more of a collectivist than a capitalist. Jesus "radicalized" me. You can try and delay this realization by arguing over the minutiae of what exactly socialism is and if Jesus would agree with Marx on every little thing, but that, and also failing to practice what he preached doesn't change Jesus' obvious message that hoarding wealth, consolidating power, othering people, etc., is not a path to heaven.

lazide2• 1 year ago

I don’t know about you, but I got kicked out of church (well, asked to leave and not come back) after I read the Bible and started to, uh, ask questions. And compare what the pastor was saying vs ‘the word of god’.

I personally am 100% sure Jesus would be dead pretty quick if he came back - a lot faster than before, and I doubt it would take 30 pieces of silver either!

hinkley13• 1 year ago

You know Christianity was built in a time of broad scale illiteracy don’t you? The reason sermons and the Bible are so at odds with each other is that for the most part only the priesthood had read the damned thing.

Even today most Christians haven’t read the whole thing. I’m not Christian in large part because I did. And it’s almost all batshit.

zajio1am• 1 year ago

Never heard about Jesus pleading for 'seizing means of production'. I heard it was more like 'Give back to Caesar what is Caesar’s'.

dragonwriter11• 1 year ago

Never heard about Jesus pleading for 'seizing means of production'.

This is something he has in common with many of the people that modern dominant (in the US, at least) political groups condemn for "socialism".

CyrsBel8• 1 year ago

Jesus was a socialist? Was that before or after he used supernatural powers to increase the quantity of food instantly? Easy to be a "socialist" in such cases, but let's not pretend that there's any serious economic theorizing being done when people say this about Jesus. It's usually just a convenience for people looking to grift or instigate. lmao.

matthewdgreen2• 1 year ago

I mean, he did actually die on a cross and fast in the wilderness. Don't think the "multiplying food" thing was a huge escape hatch in the bible.

krapp4• 1 year ago

People call Jesus a socialist because of the numerous times he commanded people to distribute their wealth to the poor and needy, help the sick, forgive debts and treat immigrants with respect and dignity.

No one is literally claiming that Jesus was espousing some kind of proto-Marxist economic theory so much as pointing out that in the context of modern (specifically American) political discourse, Jesus would be considered a socialist.

Then again, so would Ronald Reagan and Adam Smith. At this point the Overton window of what constitutes "socialism" has drifted so far that anyone to the left of Ayn Rand might as well be a tankie.

hinkley13• 1 year ago

If everyone gave away their money and followed him it would be a suicide cult. Even in a world where there’s a guy who can conjure food and heal the sick how long before the whole world fell apart? Shit needs to get done constantly for the world to support this many humans.

tomhow3• 1 year ago

We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44126690 and marked it off topic.

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m3kw9• 1 year ago

It’s a rug pull

josephcsible3• 1 year ago

Matthew 24:36: But of that day and hour no one knows, neither the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone.

Mark 13:32: But of that day or hour, no one knows, neither the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.

meepmorp• 1 year ago

And yet, people have been making those predictions for close to 2000 years.

LiquidSky• 1 year ago

Yeah, I'm not religious but I've read the Bible, and it's not clear on a lot of things but it's very clear on this point.

zb3• 1 year ago

Well, but who would then buy the "yes" bet at an elevated price?

chrchr2• 1 year ago

Right! The explanation in the article -- that "no" holders will need to sell to buy other things before the market resolves, pushing the price up -- doesn't make sense to me. Sure, maybe the price goes up shortly before the market closes, but that's a hell of a falling knife to try to catch.

erikig• 1 year ago

Honestly, its a pretty solid hedge if you believe in any version of the rapture.

legitster• 1 year ago

So, there are actual geopolitical ramifications of this metric.

A lot of US protestant theology is rooted in a concept called "dispensationalism" that was introduced in the mid 1800s. It's a heady concept to explain, but essentially it comes down to a few linked core concepts:

- The secret, sudden arrival of Jesus to "rapture" believers away

- The world is getting worse, not better. There is limited use in improving society.

- Strict literalist interpretation of all scripture (where convenient, obv)

- An individual's ability to discern scripture as well as the state of the world

- Obsession with Israel as a nation-state

https://christianhistoryinstitute.org/magazine/article/dispe...

By tracking this number, you have a good proxy for the current fervor of a lot of intertwined political concepts in the US.

ecocentrik5• 1 year ago

- The world is getting worse, not better. There is limited use in improving society.

That sounds like 19th century fire and brimstone revivalism. Most Christians are not that nihilistic. The sects that survive and flourish tend to be those that don't impose a fatalistic view of the world.

amdivia2• 1 year ago

I agree with the sentiment, but in this specific case, the "nihilism" is more of a green card to do whatever to better your own life, as there is no point improving anyone else's, just focus on yourself and survive.

So here it could be seen as an excuse to not only exploit existing systems, but also to avoid attempts at fixing them.

So in a way, holders of such fatalistic believes are ironically flourishing

pkkkzip• 1 year ago

Interesting but US isn't the only country that does this. There's an entire religion that was imported out of virtue signaling politics that rose out of the economic comforts afforded by this "protestant theology" that defeated a major superpower.

Fast forward to today, that foreign religion has multiplied (largely due to religious customs) while the local population has dwindled and lost much of its power owing to a political ideology overriding theology.

I see this foreign religion not being compatible with the host country's religion or value system and that many are rallying behind a sort of pan-Western theology to counter the many social issues throughout.

lysecret• 1 year ago

Good moment to reread the grand inquisitor to be prepared.

klempner• 1 year ago

The somewhat moribund Foresight Exchange which is a ~30 year old play money idea futures market has discussed this idea a lot over the years, even to the point of having a number of "True" claims of exactly the form described in the article, such as http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=T2015

imnotlost• 1 year ago

Talking about blind faith... people still bet on the Dallas Cowboys after all.

keeganpoppen• 1 year ago

wow this is an absolutely fascinating angle, and one that is quite revelatory about markets in general: the price of an asset is affected by time value of money every bit as much about any other form of "value".

my intuition here would be that topics that are more "catnip"-y to "speculators" (which i'd lovingly more accurate call "degenerate gamblers") would be the one with the greatest "time value of money premium", such as it is... and also gets me wondering about how to model this topic preference because it seems like a very cool arbitrage opportunity...

impostervt• 1 year ago

I take a similar approach to investing on Masterworks (they sell shares of paintings). Most investors seem to buy the upfront offering, which is always $20/share, regardless of the painting. They don't seem to realize that MW holds onto the paintings for years, so it can be hard to cash out. Many will sell at a loss just to get their cash our before the painting is sold, so I can buy their shares very cheap.

namuol• 1 year ago

Filed under: “NOT the Onion”

csantini• 1 year ago

I think it's just interest rates.

I can easily get 3% per year investing in safe bonds, so I expect at least 3% to put money on any 100% safe bet.

I want to be paid for waiting X months

chrchr2• 1 year ago

That doesn't explain why there's a market for "Yes". For "No" to be worth 3% instead of 0%, there must be people who think "Yes" will in some way be worth 3% or more.

ddp26• 1 year ago

I've been involved in prediction markets for a while, and this story highlights why I'm now more optimistic about using AI than crowdsourcing humans.

So much, possibly the vast majority, of intellectual energy that goes into prediction markets is not about forecasting. Like the example Eric gives of “This Market Will Resolve No At The End Of 2025”, it's about arbitrage, it's about edge cases, it's about interest rates, it's about resolution disputes, it's about sniping the dumb money faster than others.

Prediction markets are a brilliant way to incentivize accuracy and good research. But you don't see much of that on Polymarket.

JohnMakin4• 1 year ago

I can shed some light on this, maybe -

In the year before the 2020 election, a market opened on predictit called "Will Hillary run for president? Yes/No"

First this was a reasonable market, but quickly it became obvious she wasn't running (because she repeatedly said she wasn't, there was no campaign created at all, absolutely zero indicators she was running because she wasn't). Predictit allowed a comment section where people worked themselves into a frenzy every time some hillary "news" dropped that somehow secretly indicated she was running a phantom campaign. She missed primary registration deadlines - that only made the "Yes" market move up. There were still people hammering Yes up until a few weeks before the actual election and they closed the market.

Anyway it was the same thing. Low % "Yes" and 95+% "No." However, I found an edge holding on to a "baseline" Yes I'd established (1-2%, I can't remember) and just sell the waves of "news" that would spike it to 5+%. Then buy again at the baseline. There were a lot of shenanigans in the comments and people attempting to move the market with various tactics - it was a wild ride and one of my favorite markets I'd ever studied/participated in.

There are probably some true believers in the "Yes" jesus purchasers here but I imagine a lot of what I'm describing here too.

mettamage2• 1 year ago

Sounds similar in theme with what happened to Hertz. I think at some point it was bankrupt but speculation still had the share price way above what it was worth (nothing).

BJones122• 1 year ago

The original shares ended up being worth $8. There might have been a point during the bankruptcy were they were worth nothing (due to changing used car values) but in the end they were worth something.

https://nypost.com/2021/05/12/hertz-investors-snag-8-a-share...

cj• 1 year ago

This is a reminder of how prediction markets don't always accurately estimate probability of events happening.

The most interesting part of the article IMO was the fact that the 3% probability is artificially high because there is no one willing to take the otherside of the bet, because betting "No" requires you to give your money to the prediction market for 6+ months, and if you're only getting a 1% return if you win the bet, you'll make more money if you put the cash in a high yield savings account.

Seems like prediction/betting markets only really work well when there is a reasonable chance of either outcome occurring, and is less accurate the more obvious one outcome is compared to another?

JohnMakin4• 1 year ago

This is a reminder of how prediction markets don't always accurately estimate probability of events happening.

I'm well aware that people believe that these markets are accurate estimators of probability of events, but I've (as a life long gambler) always viewed it as a measure of people's confidence in an event happening at a particular probability. People are wrong/delusional at scale all the time (think of the mandela effect), it can be the case that large groups of them converge on the right outcome via market forces, but it kind of makes the big assumption every participant is in good faith, rational, and informed.

slashdev• 1 year ago

I came here to say this, but you explained it better than I could have. At 3% odds, it's not worth it to participate in this market because a money market fund gives a better return, even if you believe the odds of this happening are 0 (and they're never 0, there was a first coming of Jesus after all, you don't have to believe in the supernatural to see how it could happen.)

bee_rider4• 1 year ago

It’s possible I’m being a jerk, but actually maybe betting services could do a social good: allowing people who believe things despite all reason to incur some small cost to themselves and hopefully course-correct?

We can even both-sides this; Hillary fans and people who believe Jesus will come back soon are usually on opposing sides, right?

JohnMakin4• 1 year ago

The people who were “Yes” hillary stans were very much not hillary fans. very much the opposite. much of it seemed fueled by far right wing conspiracy theories

ubersketch• 1 year ago

Prediction markets were initially proposed to provide a social good, the idea being that the ratio of the current price of a share in a prediction market to the value of that share if the market resolves to "yes" is how likely the market thinks the market is to resolve "yes" as a probability. The social good is that you could use this to predict the future.

dyslexit• 1 year ago

This is exactly what the article is arguing people are doing when betting on the Jesus thing:

[Time Value of Money] The Yes people are betting that, later this year, their counterparties (the No betters) will want cash (to bet on other markets), and so will sell out of their No positions at a higher price.

...

Has this galaxy-brained trade ever gone well? Yes! In late October of last year — a week before the election — Kamala Harris was trading around 0.3% in safe red states like Kentucky, while Donald Trump was trading around 0.3% in safe blue states like Massachusetts. On election day, these prices skyrocketed to about 1.5%, because “No” bettors desperately needed cash to place other bets on the election. Traders who bought “Yes” for 0.3% in late October and sold at 1.5% on election day made a 5x profit!

JohnMakin4• 1 year ago

No, not really. What I was doing was playing predictable spikes in volatility in the market over a long span - theoretically i could have done it forever had the market never closed. I also doubt the hillary market moved because of liquidation needs in other markets - it was driven almost entirely by conspiracy theory news. I followed it very closely, it was not this at all.

whatgoodisaroad• 1 year ago

there's a really interesting book called "When Prophecy Fails" that documents a doomesday cult. the cult had predicted a huge flood sometime in the 1950s and some sociologists infiltrated the group posing as believers to document their psychological response to the calamity not occuring

one of the core theses of the book is that adherents to a prophecy paradoxically believe in it much more strongly AFTER it's been disproven

devrandoom• 1 year ago

Fat chance based on the treatment he got last time.

throw7• 1 year ago

The way they will arrive at the answer is very vague... "The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources."

I'd like to know the list of said sources and what consensus means (51%?). Presumably, this question can be asked and answered every minute? hour? so we could have up to the minute coverage of the second coming.

severusdd• 1 year ago

So, how much do I make if I bet 30 pieces of silver on this?

ecocentrik5• 1 year ago

The discussion in Polymarket revolves around the trustworthiness of the market creator and their resolution criteria. Any discussion here that doesn't consider those things is missing the forest for the trees. The market isn't really about Jesus. Jesus is just the engagement hook. It's the reason this post has 147+ comments on Hacker News and $500k+ in market transactions on Polymarket. There's very little stopping the market creator from citing a guineapig pet lovers blog as his source with a claim that Jesus has returned as an adorable little guy with too much rizz to be anything other than the second coming.

FajitaNachos• 1 year ago

The settlement criteria for most of these is pretty strict and clearly laid out in the terms.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

That is pretty sparse, but I suspect Polymarket has a vested interest in making sure this resolves appropriately (as noted in the article). I do like the use of the guineapig with rizz anyway.

dweez2• 1 year ago

Great point. Never forget about counterparty risk!

Sniffnoy4• 1 year ago

The article does mention those things. It doesn't consider them big factors. And "the market isn't really about Jesus" is the article's whole point!

ecocentrik5• 1 year ago

Fair resolution is the single biggest issue with prediction markets. I don't see how a market resolution based on the occurrence of a supernatural event isn't a problem.

soared• 1 year ago

Especially good callout in the context of Jesus returning. It would look very different today, but there was one who was pretty damn close to pulling it off - would be curious when poly market calls the bet. Chatgpt summary -

* Sabbatai Zevi (17th century): One of the most famous false Jewish Messiahs. He gained a massive following across the Jewish world. However, when faced with the Ottoman Sultan's choice between conversion to Islam or death, he converted. This conversion was a devastating blow to his followers and essentially a public "recantation" of his messianic claim, though not necessarily an admission of it being a lie on his part as much as a desperate act to save his life. Many of his followers were deeply disillusioned, while others continued to believe in him even after his conversion, developing complex theological explanations for his actions.

ecocentrik5• 1 year ago

A willingness to die for his claim would be a meaningful addition to the resolution criteria.

thatjoeoverthr• 1 year ago

If Jesus returned, people wouldn't believe it unanimously; it would be a scissor like everything else. (I don't even want to give examples.)

Conversely, if Jesus has not returned, some people can be convinced that he has.

Which brings me to the criteria. What are acceptable criteria? Maybe, "will a plurality of people believe that Jesus has returned in 2025?"

Eschatological cults routinely convince small numbers of followers that the end is coming. Hustlers do this all the time. I've been told personally, directly, that we know the date. It's coming. (The date in question came and went.)

Given the above, could 2025 be the year of Deep Fake Jesus?

Deep Fake Rapture?

jihadjihad2• 1 year ago

Given the above, could 2025 be the year of Deep Fake Jesus?

It does make one think, at least.

"Take heed that no one deceives you. For many will come in My name, saying, ‘I am the Christ,’ and will deceive many."

bdcravens• 1 year ago

Aren't the ones wagering yes basically acknowledging they've failed their religion? According to Christian scripture, they would have been raptured seven years prior to the return of Jesus.

tengbretson• 1 year ago

But of that day and hour knoweth no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only.

bilsbie• 1 year ago

What’s the criteria to resolve the bet?

bigmattystyles• 1 year ago

Is there such a thing as seeding a market to draw in gullible money?

dr_dshiv• 1 year ago

After studying esoteric Christianity, here’s what I can work out rationally.

Jesus was understood as the incarnation of the logos (often translated as “word” but with a much deeper meeting). The logos was the emanation of the pure ineffable oneness — ie, logos is the “son” of god (the oneness). These ideas were worked out by the Jewish-platonic philosopher Philo of Alexandria (b. 50 BCE) and directly influenced early Christianity. The message of Jesus was that we are all part of the logos — and if we believe that, we have eternal life (since the logos is eternal).

Since the logos doesn’t die, it’s hard to say how it returns. But you know, I’m probably over thinking this prediction market

dweez2• 1 year ago

To summarize the article: buying the Yes side of this market is like shorting treasuries. It's not a bet that treasuries will default, but rather a macro bet about that demand for cash (i.e. interest rates) will increase.

Nevermark• 1 year ago

Polymarket itself has a very strong incentive to offer interesting long odd bets, in the hopes that anyone bites.

They get the time value of your money.

And it makes the site more interesting. It's free PR.

It would be very surprising if they don't know this and are not taking advantage of the dynamic. It isn't even sketchy, nobody loses any value they didn't choose to lose.

tmiku• 1 year ago

It's worth nothing that it takes less money than you may expect to significantly shift a prediction market's trading price. This article, while its tone aged poorly with the relevant election results, covers the math behind this quite well.

https://quantian.substack.com/p/market-prices-are-not-probab...

john-h-k• 1 year ago

This article, while its tone aged poorly with the relevant election results,

While I get your point, it’s critical to recognise that betting 90% on a six being rolled doesn’t make you correct when a six is rolled. You can believe polymarket was truly mispriced even with this outcome

xunil2ycom• 1 year ago

if we're betting on fictional entities, let's do the easter bunny next.

fortran773• 1 year ago

There's a related business for "After The Rapture Pet Care"

https://aftertherapturepetcare.com/

If anyone want to pay me in advance to take care of their cat after rapture, drop me a line!

nullc• 1 year ago

The amounts involved are so small that I'm a little doubtful of this cashflow squeeze pattern actually working, but it doesn't have to work to drive markets.

Fun example is the old fax pump and dumps. You'd get some 'market prediction' fax for a penny stock that is very clearly just some pump and dump. No one buying thinks it's anything but a P&D. But they buy thinking other people will be tricked and that they'll get out before the suckers do... so sad for the P&D savvy buyers that they are, in fact, the suckers themselves. It was very important to the effectiveness of the scheme that the faxes be both obvious to be a P&D but also not so obvious that their targets couldn't imagine it fooling anyone.

The author though shouldn't underestimate people just spending their funds inefficiently. A lot of people are not really aware that they could just get a risk free return better than they'd get from this thing, and even when they are they've adopted a non-linear utility where they value some unlikely JesusMarket windfall as much more valuable than a (higher EV) bond return.

Humans seem to have a pretty predictable mishandling of extremely small probabilities. A lot of cons work by convincing the mark that there is a small (but real) odds of a windfall return.

This thing shows up in cryptocurrency markets all the time, you can have some token listed on an exchange with no information at all but some symbol/name and random people will plunk thousands of dollars on it.

To some extent there seems to be a kind of wealth brownian motion where your income is proportional to the number of pixels on the internet that, when clicked, cause funds to be transferred to you. Of course, having an actual REASON to pay you is even better, but it's not strictly necessary.

thrance• 1 year ago

If Jesus returned, he'd be arrested at the borders for being too woke and not white enough, then sent back to the middle east.

einpoklum2• 1 year ago

"This means that the Jesus Christ market is quite interesting!"

Well, you know, if Jesus were to materialize, I think he would probably confiscate all of the winnings, because:

* “It is written,” he said to them, “’My house will be called a house of prayer,’ but you are making it ‘a den of robbers.’”*

Matthew 21:13

NickC254• 1 year ago

Jesus hated the money changers.

I'm not even religious and I know that he despised usury and gambling.

And here we are - people bet on his return.

elzbardico• 1 year ago

Anyone thinking there are no true believers betting on "Yes" should pay more attention to Modern American Protestantism.

spiritplumber• 1 year ago

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Fanfic/LeftBeyond I wrote a 500 page story about it, in which I tried to explain LLMs and model collapse, which wasn't bad for 2015.

amelius• 1 year ago

I have a different bet.

Let's suspend all advertising for Him, for two or three generations.

Will He revive?

50208• 1 year ago

Lord almighty (lol) ... these folks are so ... I don't even know the word.

ranger207• 1 year ago

This is one of several reasons the prediction value of these markets is nil

david_shi• 1 year ago

subjective/intersubjective binary event market resolution is one of the most fascinating areas of crypto research

uma whales currently have a lot of influence on voting results, but I can't imagine that this won't be addressed at some point

https://rekt.news/hedging-bets

https://app.truemarkets.org/en

1270018080• 1 year ago

Too bad the returns aren't high enough. 3% is lower than a savings account.

beeandapenguin• 1 year ago

Newton spent the majority of his life trying to answer this question. It'd be more interesting if the question asked “Will Newton’s prediction that the Second Coming won’t happen before 2060 be correct?”, but that might be a bit too long for Polymarket.

aaroninsf• 1 year ago

Can I bet on never? Please God, let me bet on never

smitty1e• 1 year ago

The Good News is that He is en route; the other news is that His driver is named Godot.

johnea• 1 year ago

Is there some way to short sell this?

macintosh-hd• 1 year ago

Are we sure this isn’t just that there is some set of bots that just vote contrarian opinions on polls that are nearly 100% in one direction just in hopes of gambling on the high return? It’s possible none of the bets on this topic are even aware how bizarre it is to vote yes.

macrolocal• 1 year ago

To be fair, if we're living in a simulation, Jesus does feel a bit like a Chekhov's gun.

zombot2• 1 year ago

If you believe what the fans are saying then the 2nd coming of Jesus Christ is already happening, they just have a different name for it. They call it AI.

mariusor2• 1 year ago

[edit] ...

kubanczyk• 1 year ago

Wrong thread, maybe for https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44141887

mariusor2• 1 year ago

Hahaha, indeed. Thank you. :)

The Polymarket users betting on when Jesus will return

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