Fitbit Files IPO

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447599/000119312515176980/0001193125-15-176980-index.htm

by uptown • 11 years ago

115 101 11 years ago

sec.gov

eroo• 11 years ago

Devices in millions [2011,2014]: 0.2, 1.3, 4.5, 10.9

Revenue in millions [2011,2014[: 14.5, 76.4, 271.1, 745.4

Paid active users in millions [2011,2014]: NULL, 0.6, 2.6, 6.7

I realize they sell more than just pedometers, but their core product is a 3-axis accelerometer that calculates a dubious step count w/o really actionable insights. Imagine what this can be once there start to be useful applications/more of the data.

readme• 11 years ago

The step count is not really dubious. The fitbit app also renders data from the pedometer in a very useful way and enables you to set goals.

Fitbit is definitely useful for monitoring activity if your goal is to manage calories in/calories out and keep track of your heatlh.

mkopinsky2• 11 years ago

Step counts are fairly accurate. From the Flex less so than their other devices, but still not too bad. Nike Fuelband is pretty bad. Pretty good figures at the link below.

Case MA, Burwick HA, Volpp KG, Patel MS. Accuracy of Smartphone Applications and Wearable Devices for Tracking Physical Activity Data. JAMA. 2015;313(6):625-626. doi:10.1001/jama.2014.17841. http://jama.jamanetwork.com/article.aspx?articleid=2108876

hbhakhra• 11 years ago

Believe me, I thought the FitBit was a stupid device when I heard about it, but then I got one for free from work. Having it on your wrist all day and tracking all your activity really did make a difference for me and for my friends that have it - to the point where I convinced friends to get the FitBit.

The effectiveness of the FitBit, just by my anecdote, is that it tracks all your steps, even for little things such as walking to the bathroom, and shows you your total activity. Second, is when at the end of the day your are close to your target, its easy to convince yourself to go for a little walk to reach the target. Without tracking, you wouldn't have done that extra walk at night.

I do agree with sentiments of others that the lock-in of data is pretty annoying, but the device and app work great for what they do.

MBCook• 11 years ago

Second, is when at the end of the day your are close to your target, its easy to convince yourself to go for a little walk to reach the target.

Having an external locus of control can make a huge difference for some people when it comes to exercising more or eating better. It helped for me.

...but the device and app work great for what they do.

That was NOT my experience with the app. I think it's pathetic they decided to try to be their own ecosystem instead of being part of HealthKit, but that's not their big sin.

In the two or so years I used a Fitbit the app only got worse. Food logging was repeatedly changed, losing features, and getting harder and harder to use. They later changed exercise entry to make it work better for runners and harder for everything else. They took FOREVER to update from iOS 6 style interfaces to iOS 7.

But the big thing, the KILLER thing, was that all my data was corrupted by a bug they knew about and refused to fix. There was an option to adjust your daily calorie goals based on activity (or something like that). Having that on used to be the default, but it caused all sorts of problems. I only found that out after noticing tons of my old data had almost exactly the same calorie count each day. Like within 10 calories.

After numerous support emails (their support system was terrible) I was finally told to turn that option off. They knew it caused issues, that's why they started turning it off by default. But they didn't tell people who had it on about the issues it caused or detect if they were hitting the bug. They fixed it for new users and left older users screwed.

So I have 2+ years of useless fitness data in FitBit. It doesn't matter if it can be exported for free or put in HealthKit, the data is junk.

I don't remember having a single positive interaction with FitBit over support or other problems. They were at best neutral. My opinion of them went lower and lower and lower over time.

clarky074• 11 years ago

But now, the big question is can it compete with Apple Watch? I didn't really "get" the idea at first, but now that I have an Apple Watch I have actually paid attention and enjoyed the activity app for all the reasons you stated above.

Why not get the Apple Watch instead, and enjoy all of the other features you can have too? I think the comparison in a comment above to camera/video camera is spot on. It's a great feature for this other all purpose computing device I happen to have. I don't expect it will be a standalone product 5 years from now in any significant numbers.

mbesto• 11 years ago

The effectiveness of the FitBit, just by my anecdote, is that it tracks all your steps, even for little things such as walking to the bathroom, and shows you your total activity. Second, is when at the end of the day your are close to your target, its easy to convince yourself to go for a little walk to reach the target. Without tracking, you wouldn't have done that extra walk at night.

Your use of the word "effectiveness" implies you desired a particular result having used your FitBit. So, what precisely is your desired result? That you do your extra walk?

jkestner4• 11 years ago

As a response to both you and epmatsw, their core product could be their store of data. That's why they're not opening up to HealthKit integration. Granted, they're making their money from hardware as part of a really polished complete experience, and the data is only a moat against customers leaving.

But I'd be interested to know how they plan to leverage the data as watches and phones cut off their hardware sales. They could go more pro with sport-specific solutions, or the data could inform a next-generation leap in UI.

mahyarm• 11 years ago

I find the automatic sleep tracking in the charge pretty valuable. And now there is the resting heart rate tracking. Also their step tracking firmware is one of the best. The aria is also useful.

epmatsw• 11 years ago

I used to be pretty on the FitBit train, but I don't think that I'm in their camp any more. Refusing to integrate with Healthkit, purposefully building their challenges feature to reject data input through their APIs, and charging for access to raw data are enough to ensure that I'll never buy one of their products again. Kind of a shame, their hardware, dashboard, and app are all pretty great :(

coryl• 11 years ago

Isn't Apple also rejecting apps that integrate with "competing devices"?

RKearney• 11 years ago

No, that is simply not true.

jbrooksuk• 11 years ago

That's exactly why I stopped using mine. My iPhone tracks everything else really well and integrates with a fair few devices.

FitBit refusing to do this means my data isn't where I want it. It's within their app and I can't get it back.

click1703• 11 years ago

Dito on stopped using my fitbit.

And now I readily share my experience with friends and family who are usually quite surprised at how it holds your data hostage, and they're just as bothered as I am when I point out that the device is a one time purchase but the servers it reports back to require ongoing payments. All I have to do is point out that Fitbit has their health data, and that of millions of other people, and they have a need to make money.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out that your data is not safe with them.

jelder• 11 years ago

Completely agree. They are fighting a losing battle against multipurpose devices, and about computing in general getting smaller, cheaper, and more mobile.

misteredison124• 11 years ago

This. The only way I see FitBit surviving is through acquisition by a company wanting to get into the space. Failing that, FitBit = Blackberry.

choppaface• 11 years ago

Their customer service is pretty horrible, too. My Aria scale just would not connect to wifi. CS sent me the same troubleshooting info as listed on their site 3 times and then offered a replacement but refused to pay for shipping. In comparison, I had a MIO Fuse, which broke, and their CS not only mailed me a pre-paid label but even got me in direct email contact with one of their PMs to try to troubleshoot the issue.

It also took Fitbit over a quarter to launch Strava integration after announcing it, yet that feature is probably a couple days (max) of coding. The Mods in the discussion forms kept sandbagging, claiming the feature was extremely complex.

The initial step counter was a hit product with a specific niche. My impression is they've really struggled to keep up with growth and innovation in the field, and this IPO is very much an attempt at an exit of sorts.

frio• 11 years ago

That's a pity. I've had the opposite experience with FitBit's support, including free shipping of replacement bits to New Zealand. I was somewhat blown away by the quality of their support.

With that said, I've become less happy with their hardware over time. My One frequently resets its clock and thus miscounts steps; my Aria downgrades my network to 802.11b (but that might be fixed by getting a better router?).

click1703• 11 years ago

I also question the quality of the software on their devices.

I had to return my first fitbit scale because my firewall blocked the first outbound request that the scale made (it was a new unidentified device on the network), which caused the scale to brick itself.

If the first registration request fails it does not appear to retry. Taking out the batteries had no effect.

I was stunned they hadn't caught this in product testing. Not that the first request could get blocked by an anal firewall but that a sporadic internet connection doesn't cause the device to brick.

icefox• 11 years ago

I also have an Aria scale and the whole reason I bought it is the fact that I don't want to have to bother writing down the date+weight on a piece of paper in the morning (trust me I seem to fail at this basic task at 6am having tried for years). To my horror I discovered that they only save a few months (three?). Given the amount of data the device is reporting I was expecting them to effectively store all data forever. Buyer beware.

Edit: to clarify when you go to fitbit's website and you go to the device's settings it shows you all of the measurements and lets you delete some. If it has been extracted to a fitbit account then it is "saved" (testing exporting my fitbit account it does have my old weights), but for example all of the measurements of our cat+me which did not have a fitbit account were auto deleted after some time period. I wonder if you don't log into your fitbit account in less than 90 days if you would also start losing your weight history or something similar :\ Either way deleting weight data on a product whos sole purpose is keeping track of data for you is sad.

JoshTriplett• 11 years ago

You forgot "revealing their customers private information": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fitbit#Privacy_concerns

guelo• 11 years ago

If it was my business I'd be scared shitless about relinquishing control of my data to arrogant, secretive, bullying Apple.

bradgessler• 11 years ago

It's really easy as an engineer to feel bearish about FitBit because of how shitty their acting from our viewpoint, but to people outside our community FitBit makes a statement "I care about my fitness and well-being", works on Android and iOS, has an app that's more actionable than Apple's Health app ("get off your butt and get 2000 more steps in" vs "you have 8000 steps today"), and has several price points below the $349 Apple Watch.

I too thought Fitbit was screwed when Apple announced its watch, but after seeing the prices and Apple's eye towards high-end consumers in this market, I wouldn't underestimate Fitbit as a business.

Nelson69• 11 years ago

There is something to be said about focus.

I have a surge that I was given. I also have some high end training devices I use on the bike, Polar, Suunto and Garmin. Fitbit doesn't compete with these, neither does apple watch (at least not yet.) The fitbit is easy to use, I do find myself looking at the numbers on and off during the day, maybe walking a bit more. I'm curious about the aria integration, that seems like another killer piece of the weight loss and basic fitness equation.

The geek in me would love to be able to pull my fitbit data in to Rubitrack or something else, at the same time, it's really not that kind of data. It seems like it adds data to all the places where I didn't keep it before, for good or bad. Not sure how that helps me out exactly (I put a couple hundred miles on a bike every week) but if you're trying to lose weight or just get started with some basic fitness, I could easily see it being really valuable. They have a social integration component, I might be too old or a different kind of bird but a badge for climbing flights of stairs doesn't do it for me like a top 10 in a bike race, the younger set seem to enjoy that stuff.

Seems like a really immature industry as a whole. And FWIW, Apple builds killer laptops but Dell and the others still make them too. Apple builds a great phone but there are still dozens of competitors in the market and some of them are very compelling. Apple Watch seems like a market maker more than a market killer. It is proof that the wrist watch is interesting again, I don't think they're going to put all the other watch makers out of business any time soon.

I don't know. We have a weight problem as a country, anything that helps people get out and move more and gives them some motivation and keeps them honest about it seems good to me. I wish them good luck.

achompas2• 11 years ago

I disagree. There's a 0% chance the Apple Watch's entry price increases above $349, which means Fitbit needs to offer an incredibly compelling product below that price. That's difficult, given that both Apple Watch and Android Wear integrate so tightly with their respective OSes.

There's a market for fitness devices, sure, but the ceiling on it is now $349 (and likely dropping). Fitbit et al. won't capture high margins below that point long-term, and it's much more likely (IMO) they offer a commoditized hardware product with complimentary "insight" services (which is, itself, a perilous market). There isn't a lot of room for profit in such a market.

free2rhyme214• 11 years ago

To me Fitbit is a feature that will be free and ubiquitous in the future.

Just wait until developers have more time with Android Wear.

imaginenore• 11 years ago

LOL. Complaints about the lack of integration and extra charges from an Apple fan.

lxcid• 11 years ago

Yep! Exactly why I stop using them and will not consider them at all. It's a crowded market and they are not standing out.

walterobm• 11 years ago

Reading the "Risk Factors" in the From S-1 always proves to be educational. Thanks to the SEC the disclosures tend to be very candid (if not partially shrouded by legalese) and a good indicator of the structural weaknesses of a company.

For FitBit the lack of subscription revenue (1% of total), the litigation following product recalls, and the uncertainty from complying with FDA regulations seem particularly noteworthy.

bgilroy26• 11 years ago

+ Apple just released a product with similar features

https://www.apple.com/watch/technology/

Ctrl-f 'Accelerometer'

misteredison124• 11 years ago

The problem is competition. FitBit's only hope, in my opinion, is to create an Android-based/compatible multifunction device that becomes the competitor to the Apple Watch.

jkestner4• 11 years ago

On the other hand, they present a cross-platform alternative. I bought Fitbit's scale because it had a Windows Phone app, something that Apple or Samsung won't give me.

omgitstom• 11 years ago

Direct link to risk factors: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447599/0001193125151...

djloche2• 11 years ago

2014 was an incredible year for them revenue/profit wise, and the first 3 months are already showing impressive growth.

2013 - 271M revenue, 51M loss.

2014 - 745M revenue, 131M profit.

Q1 2014 - 108M revenue, 8M profit.

Q1 2015 - 336M revenue, 47M profit.

These are fantastic numbers - I don't blame them deciding to go public now.

misteredison124• 11 years ago

The only way an IPO makes sense is if they're going to raise money to compete with the Apple Watch or to move into a completely different product category.

Narkov• 11 years ago

...or to get out.

vtail2• 11 years ago

I used to be a Fitbit fan, but now I switched to Garmin Vivofit (and later Vivofit 2) and never looked back. My data is open, I have a battery that lasts a year+(!), a watch and an HR monitor (with a strap) in one device.

DenisM• 11 years ago

That's two devices, not one - a watch, and a strap.

vtail2• 11 years ago

Yes, but everything other than HRM is available in the vivid it itself.

sremani• 11 years ago

Between Apple Watch from lifestyle perspective and Microsoft Band from fitness functional perspective, FitBit is being squeezed. They can still be profitable, but if Microsoft continues to refine and hone Band, FitBit is in serious trouble.

ben1040• 11 years ago

I'm really curious what the second or third iteration of the MS Band looks like.

I tried one on and the whole hw/software combination right now seems like a public beta. But it's showing they've got some really good ideas.

What I'd really like is a stress management feature from one of these sensor bands that can glean more info from my daily life. It seems like a perfect fit for MS to look at my Outlook calendar for the day and my heart rate and then point out to me a meeting that may have gotten heated.

natch• 11 years ago

If anything my new watch is making me more open minded about wearing stuff on my wrists. Since the Apple Watch lacks sleep monitoring (of course, since it's off being charged during sleep time), I've been considering buying something that does do sleep monitoring. Point being, the squeeze may go both ways.

Sirey4• 11 years ago

Reading through the comment thus far, I'm seeing a lot of negative sentiment towards the product. In the end, the demographic of the type of people on Hacker News is still vastly different from the majority.

I don't think it matters that refusing to integrate with Healthkit or rejecting data through their API matters. Check out the App Store. The Fitbit app is usually in the top 100 apps, let alone tops in the health category.

Some of you are bringing up the Apple Watch or products from Garmin and such, but again these are completely different. I recently got a Charge HR myself from fitbit and the requirements for me were some base functionality, acceptable battery life, and above all size and lightness. I've had the Charge HR for about 3 months and I hardly notice it except when I'm in competition with friends on the Fitbit app. I've had more than just a handful of friends also getting Fitbits because of the ecosystem.

I'm a believer, and barring a ridiculous price after the IPO, I'll likely be an investor.

ucha• 11 years ago

With revenue tripling every year and projected net income around or over 200M this year, I wouldn't be surprised if Fitbit was valued at a P/E over 50. They would be worth $10+ B which is a huge surprise to say the least.

snomad• 11 years ago

GoPro currently has a P/E of 65. (Somewhat similar in that it is a niche product focused on one activity).

visarga3• 11 years ago

They put a product out a little before the curve, but now all cell phones can run accelerometer logs in background and there are more prestigious and advanced smart watches.

Maybe if they played nice and opened their API / allowed devs to play with the damn thing, they could compete more with Apple, which does the same for its products.

_nullandnull_• 11 years ago

I'll buy their stock. I have bought four Fitbits for my family and they all love them.

fotbr• 11 years ago

Having (very briefly) owned a fitbit flex (I think -- it's the one that got recalled for giving people a rash), does anyone know of a similar device with fairly high time resolution, that does NOT require an account, subscription, or connection to a website/service to work? Specifically, something you can pull the data directly off the device in some usable form? OS requirement for the device connection is irrelevant, I've got the common ones (ios, osx, android, windows, linux) covered.

RossP2• 11 years ago

I like the Fitbit hardware (I use a Surge and love running with it) and their software is decent, but their customer service is atrocious.

I found a bug triggered by hitting the "Pause" button during a run. Effectively the device paused on the display, but the underlying data they use to build maps, calculate pace, etc keeps calculating. So if you run for 10 minutes, pause for 10 when you unexpectedly meet a friend, then run for 10 minutes all of your stats are based on a 30-minute run which isn't what most runners are interested in.

I documented this in excruciating detail (including showing errors in their .TCX file exports) and sent it off to their helpdesk.

First response: "That is a carrier issue, but don't worry we are still counting your steps.". There was no acknowledgement of the content I'd sent or the attachments I'd included.

Second response: Insisted it was a carrier or GPS issue, and not a software bug.

Third response: They asked me to call their 800-number. After I declined due to being in Australia, they replied and insisted that the call would be free, because it's to an 800-number.

Fourth response: THey are "Blessed" I contacted them. No acknowledgement of understanding of my issue.

It seems clear that their customer service team are not familiar with day to day use cases of their products, particularly the high-end running watch. The free phone call stuff is amusing but hints at a team that aren't aware of who their customers are.

Again, I like my Surge watch and their software is pretty good. Integration to Strava is great. But there's a pretty good chance they'll be overtaken by a future Apple watch with GPS in it.

[Edited to be less snarky]

brlewis• 11 years ago

Can you get in touch with me personally? I'd like to escalate your case. At fitbit.com I'm blewis.

RossP2• 11 years ago

Thank you for responding, I've sent through some details about my case.

mikestew2• 11 years ago

I dunno, this kind of reminds me of the Flip video camera. Great little device, inexpensive. I bought one. Shortly after, cell phones became just as capable of being fits-in-a-pocket video recorders. Maybe not HD, but good enough. (Though some would argue cell phones had nothing to do with the demise of Flip. [0])

I see a similar pattern with FitBit. It's a 3-axis accelerometer with some firmware and software. Someone smarter than me could probably get something working in a weekend (though weekend prototype to production is admittedly a long road). Worse, plenty of things have accelerometers in them. My iPhone. Your Samsung phone. My Pebble watch, which uses the Misfit app to count steps and track sleep without requiring that I actually buy a Misfit device. Some garage outfit may not put Fitbit out of business, but larger device manufacturers might be just one software update away from doing so.

Fitbit will have to have some serious value-add to stave off competitors, I think. Maybe I'm wrong, probably am. But I won't be buying their stock.

[0] http://pogue.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/14/the-tragic-death-o...

BinaryIdiot4• 11 years ago

If I would have gotten to the comments section before you I would have written your post (though with probably more mistakes).

I don't understand what their next device or app is because I can't see them staying and competing for the exact reasons you said. Yet I even use their devices right now.

Curious what the future holds for them. I feel like they have to pivot or innovate and I haven't seen any hints of that yet. Then again I could be horribly wrong.

krschultz• 11 years ago

FitBit has a brand. You can't build that in a weekend.

In fact, you don't need to build one at all. AliBaba returns over 14k results for "fitness tracker", and I imagine many of them are exact FitBit clones.

However, consumer product businesses are about way more than just the product itself. Marketing matters. Distribution matters. Apple bought Beats not because they couldn't create headphones, but because they wanted the brand. FitBit is Beats for "3-axis accelerometers with some firmware and software that you wear around your wrist".

avn21092• 11 years ago

Honestly I thought Apple bought Beats because they wanted Dr. Dre for future marketing purposes. Is that not the case?

encoderer• 11 years ago

A separate fitness tracker is the PDA-and-flip-phone combo of 2015. Once there are popular and mainstream wearable computers, I have no need for a separate fitness tracker. And that will happen as surely as things will continue to get smaller.

wordbank2• 11 years ago

I wear FitBit for 2 years 24/7, including sleep tracking. It works for a week on a single charge. Can you do this with iPhone or Pebble?

gruez• 11 years ago

Chances are, you already have a smartphone/smartwatch that you need to keep constantly charged. The device's battery life is irrelevant.

SimpleMinds• 11 years ago

Thank you for the link, I haven't read it before. Interesting part for me was

"That is, when you’re in a Wi-Fi hot spot, the entire world can see what you’re filming. You can post a link to Twitter or Facebook, or send an e-mail link to friends. Anyone who clicks the link can see what you’re seeing, in real time — thousands of people at once."

That's wow for me as this is almost exactly what Periscope is doing, which is popular around me right now. I had to check the date of article, 2011. Wow. 4 years earlier is a lot :)

guiomie• 11 years ago

Yesterday I heard a woman saying to another woman "I don't want to walk over there, it's too far, I don't have any incentive since I left my fitbit at home" ...

Maybe they've got something else going other then being a 3-axis accelerometer.

ejain2• 11 years ago

So they want to raise $100M, but the more interesting question is at what valuation?

swagmeister• 11 years ago

Fitbit is now the underdog. I'm excited to see where this ends up now that the market is willing to give them cash to fight Apple, Google, and Microsoft

pinaceae• 11 years ago

FitBit is to Apple Watch/Android Wear as TomTom/Garmin is to Smartphones with GPS.

They're fucked, erm, 'disrupted'.

visarga3• 11 years ago

Are they still here? My FitBit is almost useless for me. It rots in a drawer. When I bought it I had trouble using it with my Samsung S4 - unsupported phone because Bluetooth something yada yada. Maybe they evolved since.

Their website was ugly and hard to use. Their apps too, and they banned specific phone models and countries from installing the app. Very vexing to be left out on purpose, after buying the damned thing.

Sleep tracking? I had to TELL it when I went to sleep and woke up (the magical five-times-tapping). So, basically, it's the same thing I could do with a notepad and a pen on the nightstand.

I use my phone to track my calories since.

dokuda• 11 years ago

it's the same thing I could do with a notepad and a pen on the nightstand.

I think you might have misunderstood the sleep tracking feature. It also tracks when you're awake or restless while you're sleeping so you can understand if you slept well or not.

Last time I checked, my notepad and pen didn't do that.

visarga3• 11 years ago

True, about tracking agitation during sleep.

cdcarter• 11 years ago

Many of the comments on this thread have been about their Surge product and comparisons to the Apple Watch. Though the Surge is their "flagship", in reality I see the One and Zip a LOT more. For people who aren't interested in a smart-watch or wearable (and believe me, there are many people who don't believe in the value of one yet) the Fitbit One fills a great market between a high end fitness tracker, and a cheap free pedometer that you got from work.

source99• 11 years ago

Can someone explain the purpose of step counting?

From all the academic research I have seen regarding nutrition and exercise getting a few thousand extra steps will have no meaningful affect on your weight and health.

Is the pedometer really just a psychological trick to get people thinking about their weight and health more often which leads to people actually eating less?

ejain2• 11 years ago

It is a "psychological trick", especially when combined with other incentives like badges, leaderboards or rewards.

Keep in mind that many people struggle to get even a few thousand steps. Beyond that, it's a great status symbol, or at least it was, until the Apple Watch came out :-)

Also, the data can be interesting, both for researchers, and for yourself--if you're the kind of person who wonders e.g. if getting a lot of steps late in the evening rather than in the morning affects your sleep...

wrd• 11 years ago

When it comes down to it the wearable fitness tracker market has essentially no barrier to entry.

Can someone else make a similar device? Yes. Is there any reason someone has to use FitBit? No. Can someone else operate more efficiently? Probably. Does another company out there in the same space have better customer loyalty than FitBit? For sure.

This all spells major trouble for FitBit. Apple could easily achieve a much better economy of scale than FitBit and in the long run win a war of attrition. Even if Apple doesn't succeed in this space, the fact that the barriers to entry are low suggests that FitBit will never be wildly profitable. Any competitive advantage it currently has will not last.

jeremiahlee• 11 years ago

To all the commenters using intraCapitalization: it's "Fitbit" not "FitBit".

Fitbit Files IPO

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