USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

https://www.agweb.com/news/usda-projects-smallest-us-wheat-harvest-1972-due-plains-drought

by littlexsparkee • 2 months ago

254 178 2 months ago

giantg2• 2 months ago

It will only get worse for the next generation as the aquafers are continuing to be depleted.

dakolli• 2 months ago

we live in a closed greenhouse system, the water just doesn't just disappear and most of the Earth is covered in it. Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already, I think we'll be fine. I'm much more concerned about everyone becoming a moron from using AI.

edit: cloud seeding too.

atomicnumber3• 2 months ago

The problem is that aquifers are really cool natural filters, and only refill as fast as groundwater moves through the soil. So they're a finite resource. Instead of depleting them, people who want to farm in deserts should probably start desalinating or whatever themselves instead of assuming subsequent generations will do it.

pixl97• 2 months ago

This is by far the dumbest post in this thread by a mile. It's funny saying AI will make people dumber when you've obviously don't understand this issue in the first place. Food security is human security. When you take a huge percentage of a countries grow able land out because it stops raining then food proces go up, often dramatically.

Desalination uses far more power than AI ever would.

Imustaskforhelp• 2 months ago

Plants require a ton of desalinated water and Animals who eat plants as such require desalinated water too.

There are countries in middle east like UAE, Saudi arabia etc. which rely on desalination but they are relying it for the clean drinking water, not for the food generation. They import almost 90% of their food iirc.

The amount of energy required to desalinate all water and the environmental impacts to get that energy would literally be quite catastrophic and I am not even sure if it would be even feasible and food prices would literally skyrocket or food would simply be produced even more less by magnitudes of order.

vel0city2• 2 months ago

Desalination isn't really much of an option for deeper inland and much higher than sea level areas. Tell me, which ocean is Dodge City KS going to pull from?

HelloMcFly• 2 months ago

The energy required to transport water from the coast to our major agricultural areas would be astronomical, and the resulting brine waste would create its own environmental crisis. If we get to a point where we're forced to bypass natural water cycles entirely, our native ecologies will have already collapsed. At that point, we'll be trying to engineer our way out of a total ecological apocalypse as masses starve in bread lines.

dopa42365• 2 months ago

and desalination is so efficient/cheap at scale already that it barely affects water prices in those countries (less than 10% already, further shrinking every year as methods improve)

shagie4• 2 months ago

Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already

Let's take Kansas... the largest producer of wheat in the US. https://www.statista.com/statistics/190376/top-us-states-in-...

Kansas wheat crop down 38% from last year https://youtu.be/QjrhAXzEGDc

Kansas cannot run on desalination plants ... there's no salt water. The gulf coast of Texas is 1000 miles away.

While aquifers do regenerate (Groundwater levels in the Kansas High Plains aquifer see first overall increase since 2019 https://kgs.ku.edu/news/article/groundwater-levels-in-the-ka... ) I'm going to point out that news article has seven years of declines previously.

The aquifer that Kansas draws upon is the Ogallala Aquifer ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer ) and you can see the rate of depletion at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/nation... - there are spots in Kansas where the groundwater dropped by 150 feet from before it was tapped with deep wells to 2015.

Yes, most of the earth is covered by water. Getting that water to Kansas and Nebraska and North Dakota, however, is a problem.

andsoitis• 2 months ago

Plenty of countries completely rely on desalination already

There are only 3 countries that do: Bahamas, Maldives, and Malta.

Other countries that depend heavily, but not completely: Qatar, Kuwait, UAE.

8note8• 2 months ago

huh?

we live in an open system at any scale except the whole universe and even that is gaining energy

the earth is slowly losing both hydrogen and oxygen, and has tons of energy coming in from the sun

into the scale of a field, or a state or a country or a continent, theres very obvious flows of the water cycle introducing water via rain/snow, and removing it via evaporation, seepage, and rivers.

the only closed system is if you make one of those wine fermenter biospheres, and even there its open to energy coming in via light

the second law will keep applying

bell-cot• 2 months ago

Yes - but at current rates, it won't take anything like an actual generation to get substantially worse.

mikey_p3• 2 months ago

Is anyone actually irrigating wheat??

Edit: I'm being downvoted because someone found a source that says 3% of winter wheat in Montana is irrigated.

My point still stands, while yes some percentage of wheat is irrigated it is extremely uncommon.

pragmatic2• 2 months ago

No.

tdb7893• 2 months ago

It seems like most significant agriculture extension programs have advice for irrigating wheat, so presumably someone is doing it, even if it isn't common. If drought is reducing yields significantly I wonder if the amount is going to start growing.

E.g.

https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/considerations_for_raising_irr...

https://extensionpubs.unl.edu/publication/ec731/2009/pdf/vie...

https://ucanr.edu/blog/uc-small-grains-blog/article/irrigati...

https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/considerations_for_raising_irr...

https://waterquality.colostate.edu/documents/factsheets/0055...

shagie4• 2 months ago

https://kswheat.com/david-leonard-put-wheat-under-pivot-win-...

Leonard’s operation near Goodland is a diversified operation with a mix of dryland and irrigated acres in addition to a small cow-calf operation. Encouraged by his PlainsGold seed rep, he entered the yield contest for the first time in 2022. His entry came from a field planted to certified seed wheat that followed pinto beans, which provided some moisture profile.
“Our soil will hold about 1.8 inches of moisture per foot,” Leonard said. “So, if we have six feet of subsoil, we have some gas in the tank. We had some of that last year, but we don’t have that this year.”
From planting until harvest, the field only received 6.2 inches of moisture, so Leonard pumped another 10 inches of water to help the wheat crop along. He also furtigated nitrogen through the pivot to further boost yields. The widespread drought conditions last growing season meant it was too dry for even the weeds to grow, so he did not apply any fungicide.

---

https://api.mountainscholar.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/9...

Page 6:

The four major grain crops grown in Kansas (corn, soybean, grain sorghum and wheat) have experienced upward trends in yield (Figures 7 – 10). Corn yield has had the most dramatic increase for both irrigated and dryland production with irrigated corn yield improvements of approximately 2.5 bushels/acre for the each year of record, This result is more than twice the dryland rate of 1.1 bushels/acre. The average irrigated yield increase is 0.59 bu/ac, 0.60 bu/ac and 0.31 bu/ac for soybean, grain sorghum and wheat respectfully. Irrigated yield increase trends have been larger than for dryland.

Page 8 figure 10 shows the yield trends for wheat - both irrigated and dryland since 1974.

evanjrowley• 2 months ago

Same region all the new data centers are being built. Unfortunately, humans can't eat data like they can wheat.

Jgrubb• 2 months ago

"All the new data centers" are being built everywhere.

dgellow• 2 months ago

They are planned everywhere, if they are actually being built is a different story

jeffbee4• 2 months ago

Largely not. Data center people aren't idiots. They site their projects in places with water and power, or if not power then at least gas. I don't think you'd be able to point out a project that actually exists and is competing for a scarce local water resource.

9rx7• 2 months ago

You can eat soybeans, though, which are seeing record production thanks to it supplanting what is affectionately known in agriculture circles as poverty grass.

threetonesun• 2 months ago

There's some cosmic irony that this is happening when the people who came up with the derogatory term "soy boys" are in office, but I'm too depressed to laugh about it.

fullstop6• 2 months ago

Perhaps someone in the industry can chime in, but I had read that the soybeans that the US primarily grows and previously sold to China were used for pig feed. In my mind I pictured it like "cow corn" -- humans technically can eat it, but it's chewy and not very good.

Are there different grades of soybean?

jeffbee4• 2 months ago

Wheat, being basically worthless, is predominantly not irrigated. A data center that draws water from a river or aquifer is not a rival to wheat, which relies on rain. When farmers have invested in irrigation they largely grow something else that's worth actual money.

RiverCrochet• 2 months ago

DNA is technically data, right?

Pay08• 2 months ago

This doesn't have anything to do with data centres.

phendrenad22• 2 months ago

Shark attacks increase relative to ice cream sales. Unless you have some theory that correlates the two, that you're willing to share, we shouldn't entertain this.

usefulcat• 2 months ago

Unless you have some theory that correlates the two

I guess you meant something more like "shows a causal relationship"?

Because they're already correlated, which I thought was the point..

btbuildem• 2 months ago

growers expanded plantings of soybeans, which require less fertilizer than grains like corn and wheat

It's not the drought per se, it's input costs. Farmers are favouring crops that need less nitrogen and potassium.

Commodities have responded accordingly.

embedding-shape2• 2 months ago

growers expanded plantings of soybeans

A year ago China stopped buying soybeans from the US is seems ("China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0." - https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-soybean-sa...), was that resumed, or who are all these new soybeans going to? Is it all for national use instead of export?

Forgeties79• 2 months ago

China has a tendency to shift to self-reliance or importing from more pliable neighborswhenever they execute policies like that. So even if they’re buying again, I highly doubt it is at the same rate it once was

cogman104• 2 months ago

I expect other nations are still consuming US soybeans. China stopped because it was particularly negatively targeted by US tariff policy.

But make no mistake, it has caused problems for farmers.

The report from my small hometown farmers is that everything, except for beef, is down right now while the prices of inputs like fertilizer are high. Some of the farmers in my hometown have already sold their land to megacorp farmers in response because they simply can't survive.

bluGill12• 2 months ago

When China buys from someone else (Brazil - nobody else has significant soy bean surplus) that means whoever was buying from that someone else now needs to go to the US.

The US also uses a lot of soy beans internally. Prices are down, but farmers are still selling soybeans and with careful management are making money.

nkh• 2 months ago

They all need diesel to run the equipment as well, which is also approaching all time highs.

ericpauley• 2 months ago

Title claims "due to plains drought" but the article text largely attributes this to increased planting of soy for its lower fertilizer requirements (related to Strait of Hormuz).

fullstop6• 2 months ago

Has the USA's potash supply been reduced due to strained relations with Canada? They are our top supplier, by far.

koverstreet• 2 months ago

Are you forgetting the nitrogen? :)

metiscus• 2 months ago

Fertilizer is pretty fungible and is a global market, so even if the US is primarily supplied by Canada, and overall global demand remained constant, prices would go up since there will be supply reduction due to the Hormuz strait being closed.

colechristensen3• 2 months ago

It's the nitrogen fertilizer almost all of which is manufactured from methane + air.

SecretDreams3• 2 months ago

Yes. Despite what others have said, yes. But, in general, because of the current global dynamics, fertilizer is more expensive wherever you're going to be getting it from. It just doesn't help that the US has picked a trade war with all allies at the same time, while also engaging in real wars that disrupt global supply chains of critical resources.

HarHarVeryFunny• 2 months ago

A lot of crops need nitrogen. What has been impacted by Trump's Iran war is the supply of Urea through the Straight of Hormuz.

If the closure persists then no doubt other sources can ramp up to fill the void, but it's going to be too late for this season. Some Asian farmers have already chosen not to bother planting rice crops since the increase in fertilizer (urea) cost has meant they'd be losing money.

Fuel prices are also impacting imported produce prices.

sandworm101• 2 months ago

US and Canadian production is largely irrelevant to the price. These are world comodities. If worldwide production drops, prices rise. As with oil/gas producers, domestic potash producers are under no obligation to sell locally. If prices are higher in europe/asia/africa, that domestic potash will be loaded onto ships until domestic prices rise to match.

8note8• 2 months ago

i dont think canada has had any drop in potash sales to the south. the main potash producers are even planning new US ports for exporting potash to global markets through.

which itself is a major factor - the US imports tons of potash from canada, only to re-export it elsewhere. a clampdown from canada would be more likely to hit a south korea or china more than the midwest

ChoGGi• 2 months ago

Not that I've noticed looking at the cargo trains going by, but definitely a lot more bitumen tankers that's for sure.

Though potash is one part of three (Nitrogen < Hormuz / Phosphorus < Florida / Potassium < Saskatchewan) used in commerical fertilizer I believe.

(One person's perspective living in Southern Alberta)

mohamedkoubaa• 2 months ago

At many of these publications the editor chooses the title, not the author. They know full well that most people will read the headline but not the article.

iugtmkbdfil834• 2 months ago

Sadly, this is very accurate.

Relevant example from today:

"The commodities guru who warned about silver falling now, is saying the hantavirus could do the same to oil"

Click later:

Guy is just hedging against losses.

I am genuinely starting to wonder how much of the trade swings are from algo trades reacting to headlines ( and subsequent ones reacting to content;p ).

SecretDreams3• 2 months ago

Agreed.

But there's a very weird underlying sentiment on HN where many people seem to directly or indirectly jump whenever they can to downplay the existence of climate change. Sometimes, they are emboldened by articles like this which intentionally use misleading headlines.

You're completely right, though, that in this instance, soy beans were mostly focused on because of consumer trends and less fertilizer need. Wheat is just an expensive crop right now. Also, soybeans would actually be less resilient to drought which furthers your point re: the article headline.

margalabargala• 2 months ago

There are a number of people who are motivated to deny or downplay climate change, whether they have a financial stake or just because they've made it part of their personality.

Conveniently for them, it's very difficult to attribute any specific weather event to climate change in isolation.

eduction• 2 months ago

You are wrong and the drought attribution is correct: Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought.

"a severe drought in the U.S. Plains has curbed production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the U.S... The USDA projected U.S. wheat production in the 2026/27 season at 1.561 billion bushels, down from 1.985 billion in 2025/26, as a severe drought in the U.S. Plains was likely to slash the hard red winter wheat crop by 25% from a year earlier."

"The USDA rated just 28% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good-to-excellent condition in a weekly crop conditions report on Monday, the lowest rating for this point in the growing season in four years."

This was mentioned in the very first sentence, it's the very first attribution of falling wheat harvest.

Yes Hormuz and rising oil costs are also a factor, a secondary one since they are impacting spring wheat planting decisions as you mention.

dragonwriter• 2 months ago

Winter wheat is the dominant variety in the U.S. and is (and is projected to be further) down due to drought.

Both drought and the fertilizer shortage (which, as the article notes, was too late to effect planting decisions but DID impact the costs, and thereby decisions on the applied quantities, of nutrients for the winter wheat crop this year) are impacting winter wheat yields.

FrustratedMonky3• 2 months ago

Maybe a positive. Soy Beans are more healthy.

So lower fertilizer demand, and healthier produce, could be a net positive.

Kind of like an oil shortage is driving an increase in EVs and renewable energy.

Finally waking up the US that oil dependence is a National Security issue that renewables are possible solution for. That renewables aren't the 'woke' enemy, but a valid technical option.

So, maybe a net positive.

jqpabc123• 2 months ago

Finally waking up the US that oil dependence is a National Security issue

Even worse, oil dependence is a competitive liability --- not an advantage.

AI is energy intensive. And more expensive, carbon based based energy is a competitive disadvantage.

A competitive disadvantage in AI is an economic issue --- which ultimately translates into a National Security issue.

China leadership understands this. USA leadership is clueless.

IAmBroom5• 2 months ago

Finally waking up the US that oil dependence is a National Security issue that renewables are possible solution for. That renewables aren't the 'woke' enemy, but a valid technical option.

Amazingly invisible fact to the US political right. Glaringly obvious, yet they can't see it. It's almost like they don't even have their country's best interests at heart...

pragmatic2• 2 months ago

Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow.

If you can, you’re rotating beans and corn every year. (“Roundup ready” of course)

Wheat is on the marginal drier land. Not that they couldn’t plant wheat there but beans are way more profitable and so they don’t.

The plains is by definition more arid, marginal land a step up from pasture/grazing.

A lot of traditional wheat/sunflower/barley/oats has gone over to beans and corn bc roundup and GMO.

On my family’s farm I don’t remember the last time we had wheat crop but that was our staple for like 50 years.

jandrewrogers2• 2 months ago

Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow.

It depends on what you mean by "beans". The Palouse agricultural region is famously one of the highest yielding wheat and legume producing regions in North America.

mech998877• 2 months ago

Whean and soybeans are often grown on the same land. Your 1st and 5th sentences seem to contradict eachother, I might not be understanding.

9rx7• 2 months ago

If you can, you’re rotating beans and corn every year.

Nah. Wheat isn't profitable if you look at it in isolation, but it is still net advantageous to have in the rotation.

(“Roundup ready” of course)

Nah. IP soys aren't as attractive as they once were, granted, but the premium is still compelling enough to grow some.

dkhenry• 2 months ago

Wheat is absolutely grown on the same place they grow beans. The field directly across from my house did that last year. I don't survey all the farms in my area, but It does seem like there is much less wheat this year on fields where I know it was grown in previous seasons.

IAmBroom5• 2 months ago

Wheat isn’t grown in the same places that beans grow.

...

A lot of traditional wheat/sunflower/barley/oats has gone over to beans and corn bc roundup and GMO.

So wheat absolutely can be grown on the same places that beans grow, despite your leading claim. And I grew up in the Midwest plains; wheat IS a crop that can be grown there. Marginal? The breadbasket of the US? Huh. News to those who live there.

US farmers are planting less wheat, which made the crop harvest marginal, and along came a drought.

yareally• 2 months ago

My parents live in Ohio and rotate wheat/soy/corn every year as do their neighbors

readonkeyless• 2 months ago

The fact that the US is growing more soy when one of its largest importers, China, hasn't agreed to an import deal and actually seems to be importing more and more from Brazil instead, is extremely confusing. That is unless the farmers are pretty confident that the US will come to an agreement or failing that, expecting some type of US government bail out/subsidy.

belzebub• 2 months ago

Why do we have a drought USDA?

superxpro12• 2 months ago

Well if we dont test for it, then is there really a drought???

9rx7• 2 months ago

Little to no rain.

Tangurena22• 2 months ago

Farmers have been pumping water out of the Ogallala Aquifer far faster than the aquifer has been absorbing rainwater.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer

eightysixfour2• 2 months ago

Western hay prices are as much as double what they were last year for feed: https://www.reddit.com/r/homestead/comments/1ta64d0/breaking...

qrios• 2 months ago

When I read this thread, "Interstellar" immediately comes to mind.

Thanks for sharing!

Brybry• 2 months ago

I'd take that source with a grain of salt.

The website's domain was created 3 months ago (site doesn't even have any entries in the wayback machine) and supposedly pulls from USDA AMS data but when I looked at reports[1][2] I didn't see double prices compared to last year.

Some prices even looked lower? But it was hard to make comparisons because of report structure and data disparity.

[1] CA Hay: https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2904

[2] CO Hay: https://mymarketnews.ams.usda.gov/viewReport/2905

gbear605• 2 months ago

From the hay prices I’ve seen recently as a consumer, they’re up by like 20-30%, but not double.

eightysixfour2• 2 months ago

You may be right, but I think we'd need to wait for another report or two to be sure because the reddit post is arguing that this happened in the last few days and their statement

Last week I posted about how hay buyers and sellers were frozen, waiting for each other to move first. Here's an update....

looks generally correct. On the 2025 CO hay report you can see that last year in this period, there were 22k tons sold. This year, there were 9750 tons sold. Last year[1], the week before (4/28/2025) there were only 400 tons reported sold.

Seems like there is an annual inflection point that causes prices to settle, and it wouldn't be in the report linked just yet. Meanwhile, if you do a news search for hay prices, you can see plenty of articles from different sources discussing how the drought is driving prices higher, so it appears to be at least a common discussion point.

[1] CO Hay 2025: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/r207t...

jmyeet3• 2 months ago

This is about China. The timing of this article coming out during the Trump-China summit is no accident. The article beat around the bush (pun intended) that the real issue here is that China stopped buying (or seriously cut back) US agricultural products (particularly soy) because of tariffs imposed on China last year that got to over 100% at one point. China now buys significantly more soy from Argentina instead.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is another big factor here as fertilizer prices have massively gone up. Diesel is more expensive too. Many crops this planting season (in the northern hemisphere) haven't been fertilized like they would normally and it's too late now so that will absolutely impact food prices later this year. The Global South will be disproportionately affected.

Lastly, the continued Russia-Ukraine war continues to impact Ukraine's wheat crops. Ukraine is (or was?) often called the "bread basket of Europe" because it was such a significant wheat grower and exporter.

We (the world) are genuinely going to have much more expensive food prices later this year and, in some places, there will be genuine famine.

bluGill12• 2 months ago

You are mostly correct, but note that China has resumed buying US soy beans in the past few months.

alt227• 2 months ago

This is about China.

From what your saying it sounds more about Tariffs

CGMthrowaway• 2 months ago

IDK how many people in China are laser focused on agweb.com for their geopolitical negotiations.

The data comes from USDA's WASDE report which is released every month, between the 8th and 12th. There is no "timing," and people were talking about the expect wheat harvest this season for weeks ahead of Tue's report anyway

jmyeet3• 2 months ago

Chinese citizens aren't the target audience. The US administration is. This article is basically saying "please, Mr President, get China to buy more of our agricultural goods".

The "when" of media coverage is just as important as the "what" and the "when" here is while the president is currently in China. If you want to think that's irrelevant, that's a choice I guess.

8note8• 2 months ago

The big reason china reduced its purchases of soy wasnt the tariffs though.

the prior high purchases were to refill their reserve after covid lockdowns broke supply changes. now its about full again, so they only need the steady state supply

YesThatTom2• 2 months ago

“Dictators stay in power until there are food riots” is what every sociologist I know tells me.

I hope the “riots” are in the form of voting.

maerF0x03• 2 months ago

I've always wondered why we consider it ok when an illegitimate, unjust, or unhinged government uses violence, but not when people on the right side of history? Like yeah don't go smash up small businesses and murder innocent bystanders. But if Trump refuses to leave at the end of his term, I hope someone has the courage to use minimum required violence to remove him.

Joel_Mckay2• 2 months ago

violence

Doesn't escape despotism cycles, and just makes a country a worse place to live.

Historically, without respect for people you disagree with, it only gets worse for everyone. This lesson was simply forgotten by many. =3

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdVB-R6Duso

Joel_Mckay2• 2 months ago

This book discuses why regimes are stable. Notably starving disconnected illiterate peoples rarely change things without military cooperation.

"The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics" (Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Alastair Smith)

https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...

The CGP Grey youtube short is an entertaining summary of the books subjects:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rStL7niR7gs

in the form of voting.

The current US representatives were voted into, out-of, and back into power.

It is interesting, but will likely remain stable. =3

s1artibartfast2• 2 months ago

If you enjoy pistachios, eat eat them this year, because you wont see them next year. California produces 70% of global supply and an indian summer this year ruined the crop. Many farmers aren't even planning to harvest.

20% of the remaining global supply comes from Iran, which has its own issues of drought and war.

8note8• 2 months ago

my costco pistachios were grown in turkiye?

s1artibartfast2• 2 months ago

That is the remaining 10%

lukasb• 2 months ago

My fault: last weekend I told my wife during a discussion of climate change "hey, at least we don't have to worry that the rains won't come and the crops will fail."

_DeadFred_• 2 months ago

I live in the middle of nowhere. The farmers here wheat crop failed last year, and DOGE prevented their insurance claims. They chose to grow oats this year because it's safer for them without the insurance backstop.

downrightmike3• 2 months ago

They voted for this, but everyone suffers, just like they wanted

mannanj• 2 months ago

What lies abundant. Seems like much of our media is just plain openly hostile to truth now. Our unaccountable leaders may have modeled and normalized this for us.

bamboozled• 2 months ago

America was great in 1972 so this is just more evidence America has become great again . Congratulations:)

burnt-resistor• 2 months ago

Several European economists I follow on YT suggest Americans and Asians should prep now for a temporary food supply chain shortage, famine, and/or collapse resulting from the knock-on effects of petroleum and urea market disruptions.

USDA Projects Smallest US Wheat Harvest Since 1972 Due to Plains Drought

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