Oil and gas prices jump after Iran and Israel attack gasfields

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/19/oil-prices-gas-prices-rise-iran-israel-donald-trump

by teleforce • 4 months ago

107 70 4 months ago

TrackerFF• 4 months ago

Some airlines are cancelling flights left and right, others are jacking up the prices. If the war keeps going on into the summer, there's going to be some very obvious consumer-facing issues. From gas prices, very expensive travel, price hikes in logistics, you name it.

derf_• 4 months ago

I think the timeline is much shorter than that. These oil-producing nations have not invested in a lot of storage, because they usually ship everything out immediately. Once you no longer have anywhere to put the oil, you have to start shutting down production, and it is not easy to restart. We'll be at that point in maybe another week and a half.

general1465• 4 months ago

Or even sooner if Iran intensifies striking of storages. The whole Gulf is starting to feel like a complete write off...

mattmaroon• 4 months ago

2021 all over again except now we don’t even get a new president.

solstice• 4 months ago

Is there anyone here with a deeper understanding of oilfield geology and engineering? Given that:

- storage facilities in the region are limited and in some cases almost full

- mature oil fields need constant water injections to pump out the remaining crude

How likely is it that stopping crude extraction (and therefore the water injections) will permanently damage the oil reservoirs?

And based on that is it possible that countries with this type of mature oil fields would consider simply dumping the excess crude that can't be stored anymore in the desert or in the Gulf of Persia?

OgsyedIE• 4 months ago

There is one way that production could resume, of course: a public peace that is both real and accompanied by Iranian broadcast of orders to their coastal troops to stand down.

Given the ongoing campaign to assassinate Iranian diplomats who may be willing to negotiate peace whilst leaving hardliners alive, the only question is what kind of inducements will be necessary to get them to agree?

otikik• 4 months ago

Especially so for the consumers living in the bombed areas

mullingitover• 4 months ago

A few critical items beyond oil are also now in short supply:

Fertilizer, which is kind of important right now since it's springtime and farmers are planting crops around the world.

Plastic, without which modern hospitals can't operate.

Aluminum.

The list goes on, this was the dumbest war in our lifetimes but it's the culmination of a lot of previous stupidity that made it all possible.

The people who started this war are authoritarians and, let's be honest, straight up criminals, who did it to entrench their grip on their own domestic politics.

GolfPopper• 4 months ago

the dumbest war in our lifetimes

While it is indeed foolish, it is worse than foolish, it is evil.

gotwaz• 4 months ago

Its a good thing. Good opportunity to push electrification of everything and ditch oil for good. I hope it keeps pushing oil prices up.

PearlRiver2• 4 months ago

Friendly reminder that every member of Trump's cabinet is a multi millionaire. This is just a game for them and there are no consequences for losing.

jvpr94• 4 months ago

Already feeling this even in Brazil... Right when we got inflation under control for a couple of years.

Jordanpomeroy• 4 months ago

You got inflation under control? Must be nice…

longislandguido• 4 months ago

I thought you run your favela-rovers on sugarcane gasohol?

jeffbee• 4 months ago

After thinking it over I'm on the side of the people of Iran. Why aren't they blowing up refineries in Corpus Christi, Texas?

Argonaut998• 4 months ago

I’m probably missing some subtext or sarcasm here but because they don’t have ICBMs to reach the US?

clydethefrog• 4 months ago

They could stage a "Operation Spiderweb" inspired attack [0], but this seems highly unlikely with the current powerful surveillance state of the USA. I once read a wild theory that some Mexican cartels might be able to, since they have access to military hardware too nowadays.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Spiderweb

srean4• 4 months ago

Even if they could I don't think they would. It is not in their interest. Their target selection does make sense from their point of view and it has been a restrained and capability constrained tit for tat.

For now all they seem to want is to have a financially viable future as an independent country, not as anybody's vassal, not as a country for other superpowers to play games for geopolitical reasons. Essentially to control their own destiny.

That was scuttled in 1953. Their civilian aircraft was shot down without apology. Saddam Hussein was foisted against them. They pulled through 8 years of wars that saw attacks with chemical weapons to which they lost several tens of thousands lives.

If they do not like the people who have messed with them, I cannot say that their feelings are unjustified.

I am not even Iranian.

myrmidon2• 4 months ago

To state the obvious:

1) It is not clear that the people of Iran actually want to blow up refineries in general right now, but living in an autocracy they don't have much of a choice.

2) Because there is a pretty big ocean between them and most American civilians/infrastructure (this also enabled past colonial powers to wage war very pretty cost effectively and at their convenience). I'd like to argue that the prospect of retribution on home soil is important to stem aggressive wars, but at least for medieval Europe this apparently did not work that well either.

skinnymuch• 4 months ago

(1) is written as if other forms of govt like a typical liberal democracy in the west or Europe give their citizens much of a choice.

pphysch• 4 months ago

The buried lede: Israel did an unprovoked attack on Pars and Iran immediately retaliated by attacking QatarEnergy, which has major LNG partnerships with US oil companies.

lokar2• 4 months ago

And it's important to not that until that point, both the US and Israel had not been attacking any of the Iranian production and export infrastructure, only some depots (and refineries?) for domestic use.

ikr6782• 4 months ago

They wanted to take them over.

anonymous344• 4 months ago

remember your paper straws to save the planet

fogzen• 4 months ago

Good. I hope gas becomes so unaffordable the US economy collapses. Maybe they'll lose some weight and it'll improve the healthcare situation.

izzydata• 4 months ago

It seems highly unlikely that the US will magically have trains and more walk-able living because gas is unaffordable. Especially if it was a drastic and sudden shock of supply. Myself as much as anyone is not in favor of the reliance the US has on cars and non-renewable energy, but causing chaos is not the way to do it.

pasquinelli2• 4 months ago

i think they're saying the situation then would be such that americans won't be able to eat so much. that might shock your sensibilities, but remember that thousands of iranian civilians have been indiscriminately murdered these last couple weeks, by america.

alexgieg3• 4 months ago

This is an interesting point. Supposing this sudden shock happens, wouldn't American towns, counties, and the like, run to buy buses and start providing emergency bus services all around to all those suburban areas where people couldn't afford gas anymore? Or at least, this is how I imagine a sane response would be.

There'd be a shortage of buses at first, but I also suppose it'd relatively easy to adapt current North American car manufacturing plants to start manufacturing buses.

But that's just an uninformed guess. Am I too much off base in this?

Zigurd2• 4 months ago

The people in the US chose chaos. Maybe we need a harsh lesson not to do that. If we are permitted to vote this November, we'll get an indication whether or not we've learned anything.

Havoc• 4 months ago

Have seen social media chatter of isolated shortages in two countries already.

Hard to tell whether that’s just background noise that is just getting more airtime play thanks to Iran or whether it’s the first sign of bigger trouble.

JohnMakin• 4 months ago

so much winning, you're gonna get sick of winning

bambax• 4 months ago

after Iran and Israel attack gasfields

After Israel attacked gasfields and Iran retaliated. Iran didn't start any of this.

srean4• 4 months ago

Wish this comment could be pinned.

rasz• 4 months ago

    Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar
    Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi
    drone attacks on Saudi oil fields
    Ruwais refinery in Abu Dhabi
    Shah gas field in Abu Dhabi
    port of Fujairah
    Bapco oil refinery in Bahrain

igravious• 4 months ago

“Oil and gas prices jump after US-proxy Israel attacks Iranian gasfield infrastructure, and after Iran responds in kind after having promised to do so.”

is a headline that reflects reality and doesn't finesse the details -- I should really become a headline writer, I'm clearly better than whoever is employed by The Guardian.

At the very least it should be "Oil and gas prices jump after Israel and then Iran attack gasfields"

Putting Iran first might lead some to believe this was Iran-initiated, which of course is probably the intention.

pasquinelli2• 4 months ago

is israel a US proxy? that's feeling a little backward right now.

senectus1• 4 months ago

all proxies do this eventually.

no one ever seems to learn, you use a proxy to do dodgy shit for you and eventually they become the tail that wags the dog.

made worse in this case by the fact that trump is a weak leader and Netanyahu is not.

pzo• 4 months ago

I don't get why the prices jumped so much - looks like panic and hoarding because:

- The Middle East produces roughly 30% of the world's oil

- But about 20% of total global oil consumption flows through this strait (less than 30% because of of domestic consumption and some pipelines avoiding strait)

I would understand if prices increases e.g. 50% but like more than 100% seems like a panic or manipulation

lokar2• 4 months ago

It would make sense if there was mostly inelastic demand for 80% of current production. I'm not sure if that is the case, but it might be. There is a lot of usage with no good substitute.

tencentshill• 4 months ago

I had this thought as well. But oil prices are set globally on the exchanges, even oil that never leaves the US is affected.

alexgieg3• 4 months ago

Oil demand is mostly inelastic. No matter how much or how little is produced, those who need it NEED it, so they'll compete with all others who similarly need it. The richest ones from among them get the oil first, and the poorest get nothing. The end price ends up being a function of how much oil is available versus how much the richest countries' absolutely irreducibly need for oil is versus how much wealth those countries can throw at the problem not to be left without before someone else with deeper pockets gets it.

orwin2• 4 months ago

Also, a third order effect of oil inelasticity is that if it cost too much , it decrease production and trade (might be less true now, but it was absolutely true in 2010), it lowers global demand, so the prices go down. Which is why markets can't predict oil prices, not really.

frankharv2• 4 months ago

I agree. Why is domestic oil linked to global oil price?

We are energy independent? Big Oil is milking US.

bethekidyouwant• 4 months ago

if someone wants to buy American oil for twice the price overseas then it’s not gonna go to your local gas station…

ElevenLathe• 4 months ago

This is the exact reason that prices for U.S. benchmarks (e.g. WTI) are diverging from international ones (e.g. Brent). The spread between the two is the largest since 2011 and widening. There is only so much export capacity in the U.S., so there will be a glut compared to the rest of the world as a whole.

U.S. prices are up, but international prices are up even more.

tengbretson• 4 months ago

Uniting to fight gasfields might be just the common enemy that Iran and Israel need to finally mend this relationship.

axus• 4 months ago

If you had a secret agenda to reduce the world's carbon production, this is one way to go about it.

cousin_it• 4 months ago

Except for all these burning gas and oil fields.

zenethian• 4 months ago

Time to get out our “I did that” stickers, right?

snypher• 4 months ago

I think about this every time I get gas. What was the claimed link between Biden and gas prices anyway? I feel like I missed something.

kccoder• 4 months ago

Nothing more than him being president when gas prices were high.

Shitty-kitty• 4 months ago

If they really are trying to provoke a revolt in Iran this was about the stupidest thing you could do. Over 800 million Iranians rely on gas for cooking and heating. Before you joke about heating in a desert. Sand radiates heat incredibly fast, nights can get below freezing in some parts of Iran.

mikewarot• 4 months ago

It will probably go back up to about 5 grams of Gold per barrel, which was the past peak, and hold there.

More troubling if you're paid in dollars, the end of the Petrodollar is likely now on a very accelerated timeline. Based on history, I expect a 60-80% drop in our standard of living when that happens.

joquarky• 4 months ago

On top of the drop from the past 10 years?

burnt-resistor• 4 months ago

Stockpile (some) gasoline now because retail price shocks haven't hit yet because it takes time to ripple through the supply chain and commodity market-goods delivery price differential is in flux until supplies dry up. Supply impairments will last 1-2 years because around a dozen billion-dollar petrochem facilities have been physically destroyed and will need to be manufactured again in distant lands like Italy.

Oil and gas prices jump after Iran and Israel attack gasfields

Related Stories