Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245B of gold home from US

https://www.ft.com/content/e39390cc-ea02-4197-843a-1e4c242422cc

by cempaka • 1 year ago

207 306 1 year ago

ft.com

_lvbh• 1 year ago

https://archive.is/20250623093918/https://www.ft.com/content...

I have doubts the current US administration would let them without some sort of retaliation (e.g. more tariffs)

reedf12• 1 year ago

If your friend goes to an ATM for $20 and their bank fines them with a large percentage fee on their income; are you likely to also choose this bank?

PicassoCTs• 1 year ago

You assume you are trying to run the bank profitable. But maybe you are just a very good friend, of another bank, that wants to see your bank bankrupt?

6274672• 1 year ago

You just discovered the concept of natural monopoly

stackedinserter2• 1 year ago

If I go to any bank to withdraw $50000 in cash, they won't let me either.

roenxi2• 1 year ago

The US might literally just not give it to them. Germany has been trying to ask for their gold back for a while IIRC and they generally get an explanation that paraphrases to it being a very complex operation to pull off and they should come back next year.

The US has enough leverage over Germany that the Nord Stream incident is still an unsolved mystery where everyone just moved on. Probably the Russians did it. That's a lot of leverage.

niffydroid• 1 year ago

I thought this has been attributed to pro russian Ukrainians on the far right?

holowoodman7• 1 year ago

The official line in Germany is actually that Ukraine most probably did it: https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/nordstream-17... https://www.br.de/nachrichten/deutschland-welt/nord-stream-s... https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explos...

Knowledge or agreement by Selensky is unclear, but there seem to be hints. Poland might have been complicit or at least turned a blind eye and seems to have let a wanted suspect escape to Ukraine.

andy_ppp2• 1 year ago

People struggle with uncertainty so much that any magical thinking they can come up with will do… we simply don’t know the truth on this at all.

lovasoa• 1 year ago

A consortium of investigative journalists investigated and attributed the attacks the Ukraine's secret service: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nord_Stream_pipelines_sabotage

ggm• 1 year ago

Doesn't this basically justify why they have qualms? To not seek to repatriate in this circumstance would seem politically unwise, if you value the gold.

If of course it's just a bargaining tool, you would think there is a quit pro quo.

Whilst the impact of a refusal to repatriate would be high remember the gold is probably not performing very much of a role, beyond a defensive one, and is nothing like the whole of their stocks. And the cost to US standing in enacting a refusal to NATO allies would be significant: You would expect future gold deposits to seek safer harbours for one, and the retention of the dollar as a hedge currency would be called into even more question.

In any case, it's a matter for law. On what grounds could the US refuse?

bryanrasmussen• 1 year ago

And the cost to US standing in enacting a refusal to NATO allies would be significant:

yeah, I mean, this administration really doesn't seem to mind taking on significant costs - to the country I mean. I don't think the administration likes the idea of bearing significant costs themselves.

jeroenhd• 1 year ago

I wouldn't expect the US to care too much about things like "NATO allies" with a head of state that expressed repeated desire to leave NATO.

On what grounds could the US refuse?

"You need our trade more than we need your trade" is a very useful property to have when it comes to international law. Putting people you don't like on sanction lists, like people investigating your ally's war crimes, also seems to work pretty well. When push comes to shove, there's always "we have more guns than you", though American diplomatic action generally prefers to overthrow governments and install new, more US-aligned leadership as a head of state.

If it's a matter of law, you need someone to enforce that law.

gsky• 1 year ago

They introduced new tax on remittance already. Germany would never dare to anger USA anyway

delfinom• 1 year ago

Gonna be real rough when every country stops buying US debt.

ToddWBurgess• 1 year ago

Sounds like the start of the plot for a heist movie

amelius4• 1 year ago

Or a deep sea diving movie

junga• 1 year ago

Honest question: does this necessarily require the physical transport of gold?

amelius4• 1 year ago

Question, how do you test if a bar of gold is really 100% gold without deforming it?

roenxi2• 1 year ago

The cheap approach is to check the density - weigh it and measure the volume. But I don't see what the issue would be with melting the gold down to check. There isn't that much of it.

jcla1• 1 year ago

Measure its volume by dunking it in a jug of water and compare its weight with its expected weight (depending on the density of gold).

There is a famous tale of Archimedes doing exactly this when posed with the problem of determining if a certain crown is made of pure gold.

reedf12• 1 year ago

Presuming you can create an alloy with the same density as gold, I imagined you could also test it's conductivity. I think performing both tests would be enough.

zaik• 1 year ago

Apparently there are bars which are tungsten on the inside. Tungsten has a very similar density.

pixelpoet• 1 year ago

This was famously answered by Archimedes in his Eureka moment: https://www.longlongtimeago.com/once-upon-a-time/great-disco...

Invictus0• 1 year ago

That's a children's parable. You can easily defeat the test by using two metals, one denser than gold and one lighter, whose combination matches the density of gold, and then putting a veneer of gold on top of it.

quchen2• 1 year ago

No, that measures volume, not gold content. Anything at least as dense as gold, maybe with with gaps in it to match the density, and a layer of gold around it is indistinguishable from pure gold this way.

A more reliable and still relatively cheap test is via conductivity.

bhickey• 1 year ago

Density, conductivity, x-ray. Density alone won't rule out bars that are spiked with tungsten.

amelius4• 1 year ago

Maybe also moments of inertia?

Y_Y• 1 year ago

My first guess would be that your gold bar isn't 100% gold, because alloying with a little copper or silver will give you more durable and practical ingot. Ifyou look at a typical gold bar they'll usually have embossed their purity. Even "pure”, 24-carat gold is probably "fineness" 998 or 999, which translates to 99.8% or 99.9% by mass.

corford3• 1 year ago

Here's a very informative video on this from a 30+ yr COMEX gold trader (the mechanism and cost to do it is discussed from about ~8 mins in): https://themarkethouse.substack.com/p/video-alyosha-with-a-r...

cantor_S_drug2• 1 year ago

I have an auxilary question. Why don't countries have Gold Embassies around the world? Accounts which can be settled in Bulk (e.g. say $100 million gold equivalent size). This way no one country has monopoly on reserve asset.

kasey_junk4• 1 year ago

They do. Countries frequently store gold with trading partners or allies. Germany for instance has extensive foreign gold reserves.

mortehu• 1 year ago

Maybe unrelated to your question, but the individual bars in the Fed vault have specific owners. They are not mingled.

diggan2• 1 year ago

I love that this question, asked 20 minutes ago on HN, probably been asked on a monthly if not weekly basis by so many people since the invention of gold as currency.

signaturefish3• 1 year ago

On the individual scale, something like a Sigma Metalytics resistivity analyser (passes an electric field through the sample, checks to see if resistivity, conductivity, weight or size all match up to what you'd expect from a homogeneous gold sample of that size or weight). On the commercial scale, an XRF spectrometer. Both methods are completely non-destructive, and highly accurate (the XRF more so).

(the two scales are due to price and bulk: the Sigma is about the size of a hardback book and a few hundred pounds, an XRF is the size of a large 3d-printer and many thousands).

hoseja• 1 year ago

Does XRF penetrate the sample? Isn't it a surface measurement?

weberer• 1 year ago

They have handheld XRF analyzers nowadays. They cost around $20k.

charlieyu12• 1 year ago

Been to a pawn shop in Hong Kong that deals with gold. They still buy small gold nuggets and simply check by juggling. So probably weight, volume and malleability, and that probably fake golds aren’t a big deal for them.

1970-01-01• 1 year ago

Nobody is holding 100% gold. The highest purity is 99.999% and anyone holding that either has an outstanding reputation and XFR scans to back that number or is trying to sell you a lead brick.

amarcheschi• 1 year ago

I have no idea of the strategy behind it, but for some reasons italy has a lot of gold despite not buying it since a few decades https://www.bancaditalia.it/compiti/riserve-portafoglio-risc...

diggan2• 1 year ago

Good idea, no counter-party exposure like if you used USD, and seems to have worked as an inflation/crisis hedge judging by how well Italy did in the euro-crisis ~2008.

OtherShrezzing• 1 year ago

A huge pile of gold in a secure location allows a government to operate in exile essentially forever without creating substantial debts for the home nation. It's not just "Italy's gold", it's "Contemporary Italy's gold".

Norway & the Netherlands moved their gold right before the Nazi invasions in the 40's, and were able to continue operating in exile as a result. Taiwan was established on the back of this tactic too, with the Chinese nationalists moving their gold out of the mainland into Taiwan when they realised they'd lose to the Communists.

seydor2• 1 year ago

they could just buy bitcoin.

Nifty39295• 1 year ago

How? You cannot eat gold - and if you're in exile will anybody sell stuff to you?

DarkmSparks2• 1 year ago

Trump administration should call in ex AOL execs for some consulting work.

squishington• 1 year ago

Enron was 25 years too early.

DarkmSparks2• 1 year ago

I was thinking more for their skills on preventing people from cancelling.

theGeatZhopa2• 1 year ago

Bring it home. US can't be trusted anymore. Bring it home.

nxm• 1 year ago

*can’t be taken advantage of anymore easily

kingkawn• 1 year ago

* can’t be considered a valued friend and mutually beneficial ally anymore at all

mystified5016• 1 year ago

*is now actively hostile toward her allies

theGeatZhopa2• 1 year ago

You mean "the gold of others in your hands?" ... Yes, that's the idea of "bring it home", so no one gets an advantage of except the owner.

You never know what the orange man will propose in the next hour.

But I'm with you. I wouldn't call it "advantage taking" though. I rather would call it a friendship based on "trust, reliance and opportunities" for all. Now, we see, it was wrong. The US can't be trusted anymore. It was an egoistic and toxic relationship - I'm happy it has an ending, now.

jxjnskkzxxhx3• 1 year ago

People are taking advantage of the US by asking the US to hold their gold?

Let me guess who you voted for.

gmerc• 1 year ago

If you're the largest debtor in the world, you clearly got taken advantage of by everyone.

ecocentrik• 1 year ago

It's probably too late now. Tbag's financial philosophy has been that everything in his pocket is his. This has historically included all unpaid contracts, all campaign contributions and large segments of the US budget. I don't think it's a stretch to suggest that if he lives long enough it will also include the Putinesque concept that everything deposited in his country's banks is also his to take when needed. I'm willing to bet he's already looking that far ahead and won't allow European wealth to be repatriated under any circumstances.

slaw• 1 year ago

What do you mean by anymore? The US can't be trusted with gold since 1971.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock

brainzap• 1 year ago

who even needs a ton of gold?

jgalt212• 1 year ago

Who even needs a ton of Bitcoin?

alphazard• 1 year ago

Gold has numerous applications. Bitcoin's only application is inserting information in an append only ledger. It's among the most durable ledgers, but also the most expensive and slowest to insert into.

gosub100• 1 year ago

Germany and Italy, it says so in the title of the article.

bilekas• 1 year ago

I'll take it off their hands if they don't need it.

mklarmann• 1 year ago

IMO the US should have never been trusted, but maybe the argument that this a Trump issue creates critical mass to move this forward.

There is enough incentive for the US to not be transparent about the actual gold that is left.

mrweasel• 1 year ago

US should have never been trusted

Depends on when gold was shipped to the US. For the better part of the 20th century there was absolutely no reason for most of it's friends and allies to not trust the US. Especially if you deposited your gold with the US around the world wars or any time before the mid 60s really.

resource_waste2• 1 year ago

IMO the US should have never been trusted

I propose, they had never been trusted. Nations do not believe in trust. At the International Relations level, IR Realism is basically the only generally accepted policy. You may have a few Constructivists, but the smartest ones still put trust and norms below power calculations.

Its really that the average person has essentially no understanding of IR and history.

I assure you that verification methods have been happening. The amount of trust was less than the amount of verification.

bluecalm2• 1 year ago

Poland also have around $50B in gold reserves. Is there some law or unwritten law that requires Central Banks to keep so much gold? It looks like waste of resources to me, especially so if it's kept abroad. Is there a scenario in which it's better than just keeping reserves in mix of various government's bonds or some other asset like land or something else.

charlieyu12• 1 year ago

The point of holding gold is that it is a physical asset that is always valuable. It’s also an very risk-averse asset.

Bairfhionn• 1 year ago

The idea of all countries having it in one location: If you have to transfer money to a different country for whatever reason you just have to put the gold from one part of the vault to the other. Money securely, physically and quickly transferred.

Also you have the physical money and don't rely on computers or similar. More secure (if you ignore Die Hard 3).

If countries start moving the gold away it's a) sign that they need the money elsewhere or b) they don't trust the current location anymore.

sdwr• 1 year ago

When you have all the money, what do you worry about? Gold is a hedge.

piokoch• 1 year ago

This is called war chest. Because the war is coming.

II World War hasn't started with German attacking Poland 1.IX.1939 and Russia (Soviet Union) on 17.IX.1939. There was Spanish Civil War earlier (1936), annexation of the Sudetenland - part of Czechoslovakia in 1938.

tboyd47• 1 year ago

Law of the jungle

myrmidon2• 1 year ago

This is not as much as it looks like at first glance. "Revenue" for the german state is something around $2000B, while their ~3000 tons of gold are worth ~300B.

It is plausible to me that building up a gold reserve might be worth it, longterm, purely because the gained trust/perceived stability nets you slightly better conditions when financing megaprojects alone (like the Fehmarn tunnel): Over a few centuries you might save tax dollars thanks to investing into bigger gold reserves earlier.

And gold is objectively useful if things go to shit-- just look at Russia for a recent example-- gold is nice for mitigating sanctions and stabilizing your currency under bad conditions.

mk89• 1 year ago

Germany has been doing this for years now. [0]

Probably Italy too...

0: https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/germany-gold-repatriation...

SuperShibe• 1 year ago

The Germans in this article all appear to be aligned to either BSW (populist far-left, pro-Russia, anti-US) or AfD (populist far-right, pro-Russia). BSW wasn't even elected into the parliament and AfD, while being part of the parliament, has virtually no power due to not being part of the government coalition and all other parties sharing an informal agreement to not pass legislations with the help of AfD.

What I'm trying to say is that these two do not represent the German political landscape at all. They also, while on different ends of the left-right-spectrum, both only represent the pro-Russian minority of the German political landscape. This is not a debate happening in Germany right now and no other party has expressed support of any position.

FpUser7• 1 year ago

So repatriating your own property is now pro-Russian propaganda? Unless country is defenseless what is wrong with keeping one's things at one's place

littlestymaar2• 1 year ago

Both things can be true at once: the politicians talking can have legitimates arguments while being part of pro-Russian parties that don't have power in Germany and do not represent the German government opinion.

pydry8• 1 year ago

In general America considers non puppets to be puppets of another country and considers only its own puppets to be truly "free".

This is as true in the middle east, europe, africa, south america or asia.

vincnetas• 1 year ago

Usually russian propoganda is anything that stirs internal conflict. This does not mean that any internal conflict is russia propoganda, but they are very quick to try amplify any conflicts. This is KGB strategy of active measures (subversion). Read more here : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuri_Bezmenov

dubbel• 1 year ago

We are talking about national gold reserves, not some household items.

They exist for the reason to liquidate them in case of national emergencies/severe economic crises. It's easier to liquidate these reserves when they are stored in trading hubs. That could be New York and London, or maybe even Shanghai, if China wasn't a systemic rival.

Storing all of them at "one's place" is a larger risk than splitting it up and storing them in several places, each with a different risk profile.

AnimalMuppet3• 1 year ago

From World War II, the problem with keeping it at your own place was that, if someone overruns your country, your government-in-exile may be able to keep control of gold that is outside your country. Gold that is inside your country, however, is controlled by the invader. (And may be looted by them. Even if you later get your country back, the gold may be gone.)

That exposes you to the risk of the country holding it. But for much of recent history, the US was seen as a lesser risk than a Russian invasion. Whether that is still the way the risks balance... I think we each may hold our own opinion on that.

52-6F-62• 1 year ago

In this case, if you’re American. It signals a loss of trust in them which is an impossible absurdity if your a priori is that America is the eternal good and only future for us all. Can’t have that.

fanwood• 1 year ago

It's still a very good idea given the US instability and complete lack of trust in this administration

cempaka• 1 year ago

It's not just this administration, it's been essentially open season for fraud in the U.S. financial system ever since 2008. If you're a hoi polloi dentist who makes $100,000 trading options off of some insider info then yes, there are SEC cops on the beat who will come after you. Otherwise, you can pretty much do whatever you want until & unless a whole lot of people lose money, at which point it's too late.

parthdesai2• 1 year ago

Is far-left really pro-Russia or just anti-US? Not everyone that is anti-US (which a lot of people with common sense would be tbf) is pro-Russia

ljf• 1 year ago

My only knowledge of them is a cursory Wikipedia search, but yes it appears they are pro-Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahra_Wagenknecht_Alliance

mindjiver2• 1 year ago

We are talking about a splinter party (BSW) from the main left party (Die Linke) which is a kind of anti-woke- and anti-immigration-party that spouts basically the normal Kremlin propaganda lines about Ukraine. There is of course anti-US sentiment there since is secondary to their main issue, peace at any cost so that Germany can get cheaper energy again.

Note that I'm not a German national but I live in Germany (former DDR / East) since 9 years.

slightwinder3• 1 year ago

They are mainly pro-communism and anti-capitalism, delve in Marxism, Lenin, Stalin, etc. and are very supportive, less critical of modern Russia. It's probably kinda like people who are supportive of the USA, don't necessarily are supportive of everything MAGA & Trump are doing, but still support it in general.

int_19h5• 1 year ago

Not just in Germany but elsewhere, the rule of thumb is that libertarian socialists (anarchists etc) tend to be both anti-US and anti-Russia, while the more common and more authoritarian kind tend to be pro-whoever is anti West, including Russia, China, or places like Syria was under Assad.

jamil7• 1 year ago

I thought Wagenknecht had somewhat distanced herself from pro-kremlin positions she and parts of Die Linke previously held? She's still pretty staunchly anti-NATO, though. I think her German-nationalist positions kind of overlap with positions that benefit Russia like resuming gas supplies to drop energy prices and heating costs.

eqvinox5• 1 year ago

Other way around, Wagenknecht is the one who didn't distance herself from the Kremlin and forked off her own party, BSW, which finally enabled Die Linke to get at least some distance from the Kremlin. (This schism was fracturing that party so hard…)

exiguus• 1 year ago

The top AfD politicians, of course. But there are many other AfD members and employees who received money from Russian influenced people. Currently, the top AfD politicians are shifting from being in love with Russia to being in love with the US. Actually the AfD has been fined several times because they have violated the donation regulations for political parties (2017, 2020 and 2021).

mdavid6265• 1 year ago

This is a very skewed view of the political landscape. Would be nice to forget this pro/anti Russia narrative. Please also note that AfD has become the strongest party in Germany. Sure, firewalled, but question is, for how long.

kadrian12• 1 year ago

Not true. CDU/CSU was the strongest party in the last election. Stick to the facts, please.

bc569a80a344f9c2• 1 year ago

Please also note that AfD has become the strongest party in Germany

It has not. They got 20% in the last Bundestag election, compared to 28.4% for CDU. Unless they get significantly stronger it seems very unlikely that anyone wants to be in a coalition with them on the short or medium horizon.

bboygravity3• 1 year ago

That's all fine and dandy, but also IMO it's entirely possible that the US cannot deliver their gold if these countries (and/or others) wanted it back.

Just look at what happened when Venezuela wanted their gold back. It took ages and that was a relatively tiny amount.

It's extremely naive for many EU countries to still believe that they "have" "their" gold stored in the US. And even more naive to not try and get it back.

The entire US banking and financial system relies on NOT delivering or owning the underlying (fractional reserve banking, federal reserve printing money out of thin air, failures to deliver every single day on everything from stocks to government bonds, failing CDS'es and so on).

stogot• 1 year ago

“Sell” it to a third country (Switzerland) who provides a certificate of deposit in a vault?

infecto3• 1 year ago

It’s extremely naive to think the Federal Reserve has lent out the gold and it no longer exists. It’s up there with insider job 9/11 conspiracies.

Modern banking and finance, not just in the US, relies on fractional reserves. This is not a movie.

user____name2• 1 year ago

The entire US banking and financial system relies on NOT delivering or owning the underlying (fractional reserve banking, federal reserve printing money out of thin air

This is sadly a very common misunderstanding of how money is created inside the financial system, even by professional economists and financial advisers. In reality money is not valued at parity with some physical material but as a simple act of accounting [0,1,2,3,4]. Historically a currency (subset) has been pegged against rare minerals as a method of insurance against state or exchange rate instability, the flip side is that this restricts state spending and economic growth -- a growing economy needs a growing stock of currency to service loans and avoid debt driven deflation, as in e.g. the great depression [5,6,7]. This is why gold/silver standards are always episodic in world history [8]. Even in the fien-de-secle gold standard era the majority of currency in circulation had its origin in endogenous bank lending [9]. The typical stability and viability of a currency is from the fact that it can be used to procure real goods in the wider market, which in turn is because money contracts are legally enforced via social power relations, e.g. by a local government with the power make and enforce such rules. Incidentally this is why cryptocurrencies act as an investment asset and not as a currency, it lacks the enforcement component and it appreciates in value, which is never what you want for a currency [10].

[0] Bank of England, Money Creation in the Modern Economy https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/m... [1] Deutsche Bundesbank, The role of banks, non- banks and the central bank in the money creation process https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/654284/df66c4444d065... [2] Richard A. Werner, A lost century in economics: Three theories of banking and the conclusive evidence https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105752191... [3] Augusto Graziani, The Monetary Theory of Production https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/monetary-theory-of-prod... [4] Basil J. Moore, Horizontalists and Verticalists https://www.cambridge.org/sc/universitypress/subjects/econom... [5] Scientific Origin, What Was the Gold Standard, How It Worked, and Why It Ended https://scientificorigin.com/the-gold-standard-what-it-was-h... [6] Irving Fisher, The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions https://www.jstor.org/stable/1907327 [7] Hyman P. Minsky, The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/232609677.pdf [8] Marc Lavoie, Endogenous Money: Accomodationist https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287788671_Endogenou... [9] David Graeber, DEBT: The First 5000 Years https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5,000_Years [10] Wikipedia, Silvio Gesell https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Gesell

Apologies for the lengthy response, it's a personal pet peeve.

nforgerit• 1 year ago

This is a very superficial perspective. Disclaimer: I disdain both BSW and Afd.

You're basically falling into "the populist trap" in which they take a fact or something true and wrap it with a lot of BS and conspiracy theories. If you disregard the true core "just because it's from the wrong party" you give them political lever. We've seen that playbook working out for 10+ years.

De Masi did a great job as a financial expert in a parliamentary group, highly regarded by people over the whole political spectrum. I don't understand why he joined BSW but that doesn't weaken his point here.

And since we're already publicly discussing Trump blackmailing us with decommissioning US IT-Services without further notice, it is exactly right to talk about assets like gold being stored on US soil.

timcobb• 1 year ago

"just because it's from the wrong party"

Extremists should never be ignored, especially in unstable times, but mentioning that these people are currently not in power and aren't even in the parliament is good context.

regularization2• 1 year ago

You're correct this does not matter this year. But in the 2013 German election, AFD got no seats, and now it has the second most seats. BSW was not around in the 2021 election, they got about 5% of the vote but Die Linke managed not to lose their vote to BSW. BSW probably picked up voters who would have gone to either AFD or Die Linke (kind of like voters in the early 1930s who switched between the KPD and NSDAP).

This is the future of European, and US elections. Undermining Russia is important to the rulers of Europe and the US, but not as much to workers and voters. You can see the sea change with Trump in office and socialist candidates like Bernie, who is getting huge crowds in Idaho and Oklahoma, or AOC and Zohran in New York. Young people can't afford houses, even programmers are having trouble since the 2022 layoffs - can you imagine the Amazin RTO in Seattle mandate would be possible in 2021? Wealth inequality leads to disruption, and political parties are made to appeal to the masses - either fascist or socialist. The political tendencies arising are no anomaly.

gruez2• 1 year ago

You can see the sea change with Trump in office and socialist candidates like Bernie, who is getting huge crowds in Idaho and Oklahoma, or AOC and Zohran in New York.

I can see how Trump being in office is indisputable sign that populists are getting popular, but what does "huge crowds" cash out to? "crowds" should be as little as 1000 people. Combine that with to urban-rural and education polarization, and it doesn't seem too hard to get a 1000 college educated city dwellers to show up to a rally in Idaho.

slightwinder3• 1 year ago

But in the 2013 German election, AFD got no seats

They were founded in 2013 and missed the seat by just 0.3%.

BSW probably picked up voters who would have gone to either AFD

AFD-Voters were the lowest group they grew from[1]. They mostly harvest from the political left, but also some (probably non-extrem?) right voters.

[1] https://www.tagesschau.de/wahl/archiv/2025-02-23-BT-DE/analy...

Aldipower5• 1 year ago

As it is correct, that they are virtually not in power, framing them as pro-russia is some sort of false flag. Just because they are not anti-russia, like every other party, does not automatically mean that they are pro-russia. AfD and BSW together got more then 25% of all votes. So, you are correct, they virtually are not in power, but they have some real power just by being there. This HN post here is the best example for this mechanism.

razemio2• 1 year ago

I think anti-nato, anti eu, pro russian gas and anti urkraine war aid qualify as pro russian. I get your point, but I think you are wrong? Just read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AfD_pro-Russia_movement

AfD has SO many connections to the Kremel. At least a big part of AfD is obiously influenced by russian agenda. BSW is a different topic. They might just align with many points russia likes, but you can not be sure either.

BSW or AfD with power in the Bundestag would be russias wet dream in regards to german politics.

Eupolemos3• 1 year ago

When another nation wants to subjugate or invade you and/or your neighbors, not being against is being pro them.

Being against military expenditures and alliances when the other nation is arming like there is no tomorrow is being pro getting invaded.

It is not complicated.

notTooFarGone• 1 year ago

framing them as pro-russia is some sort of false flag.

They just take russian talking points and deliver them to their voters. It's just conveniently the same shit. And business trips to russia are just there to enjoy the scenery.

If they talk like russians, are present in russia, do interviews in russian media and don't condemn russian warcrimes...

Maybe it's just as easy?

slightwinder3• 1 year ago

They are openly supporting Russia, take their money, visit them while meeting high ranking Russian assets and are spreading the same Ideas. There is no framing here.

throw0101b• 1 year ago

[…] * BSW (populist far-left, pro-Russia, anti-US) or AfD (populist far-right, pro-Russia).*

An example of:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory

hannob• 1 year ago

The Germans in this article all appear to be aligned to either BSW (populist far-left, pro-Russia, anti-US)

Picturing BSW as far-left, while not uncommon, strikes me always as very strange. While it's a bit unclear where to put them with their wild mixture of populism, the only reason they are by some seen as leftwing is because of the history of their founder. She was previously a member of the left party, but for many years, even while she still was a member of that party, has not held any views that could count as far-left.

The only reason some still put her in the far-left camp is that she was, looooong ago, a member of the communist platform in the PDS, the predecessor of the left party in Germany.

tonyedgecombe• 1 year ago

The far left don’t look much different from the far right.

badestrand• 1 year ago

The BSW is indeed an interesting mix because they are conservative-liberal-left while usually leftist parties are progressive and authoritarian-leaning instead.

Examples for the BSW's left politics are * higher taxes for the rich * higher taxes for large and international companies * take on new debt to finance stuff * more state-aided social housing.

mslansn• 1 year ago

AfD represents the political landscape, even if they (yet) have no power because other parties have chosen to marginalise them whilst still can. As long as you have votes, there are people behind you. Isn’t that democracy?

Paradigma113• 1 year ago

The AfD got 21% last elections.

LargoLasskhyfv• 1 year ago

The thoughts about bringing it back home are nothing new, though. And not limited to BSW/AFD at all.

See https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Goldreserven#Diskussi... for some history.

Or some articles from around 10/2012:

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/warum-das-deutsche-gold-i...

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/bundesbank-soll-den-ganze...

https://www.focus.de/finanzen/news/bundesbank-enthuellt-so-v...

(yooze trännzläyshun!1!!)

raymond_goo• 1 year ago

If 23% do not represent the German political landscape at all, I don't know what does...

jxjnskkzxxhx3• 1 year ago

The US has a history of pulling this kind of stuff on its allies. To mind comes pulling out of Breton Woods. To those not aware, at some point in the past the US told the world: the dollar is as good as gold, you can convert it at any time you want, pinky promise. Later: lol joking, I'm keeping the gold, enjoy your dollars.

I wonder what it says about Europe that its leaders are still falling for these rugpulls. That they are uneducated is the most generous reading I can think of.

Nifty39295• 1 year ago

Probably because, with full knowledge and awareness of the history you describe - they still feel their gold is safer in NY than in their own country. Europe and it's governments have history too.

twodave• 1 year ago

This is a little skewed based on my understanding. What actually happened to precipitate this was some European countries intentionally attempting to destabilize the dollar, gold having been pegged to a specific dollar amount. Obviously (to me, at least) such an action, threatening a country’s solvency, can’t just be allowed to go on, especially from the position of strength the US had in 1944 (literally a physical presence in 100% of the developed world’s ports at the time).

And let’s not forget that part of the deal was that the US would guarantee maritime security, which they have fulfilled for nearly 100 years. I would say that’s worth quite a bit more than whatever gold is in dispute, given that it allowed for the rise of globalization in the first place.

What really caused the end of the BW financial system was the inability of a world economy to be backed by gold in the first place. This coincided with the US leaving the gold standard in 1971, and this was only ~5-10 years after the instability began. So the system still enjoyed 15-20 years of operating as intended.

mensetmanusman5• 1 year ago

And the system resulted in the largest wealth transformation in human history with extreme poverty being nearly obliterated.

fakedang• 1 year ago

I wonder what it says about Europe that its leaders are still falling for these rugpulls. That they are uneducated is the most generous reading I can think of.

Stupid Atlanticists

corford3• 1 year ago

If anyone's interested in some of the nitty gritty of this, can highly recommend "Three Days at Camp David: How a Secret Meeting in 1971 Transformed the Global Economy" (https://www.amazon.com/Three-Days-Camp-David-Transformed/dp/...)

patrickk2• 1 year ago

A secret report by Germany’s Federal Audit Office leaked to the public last week states that the Federal Reserve Bank of New York refuses to allow Bundebank staff to even view the gold, triggering suspicions that the vaults are empty as well as calls for the gold to be shipped back to Berlin.
The Fed implements stringent security controls, and refuses even Bundesbank staff full access to the German gold hoard. A team of personnel demanding access in 2007 were only allowed to visit the anteroom of the reserves, and when Bundebank auditors visited in May 2011 only one of nine compartments was opened for direct handling.
The Federal Reserve’s fervent secrecy has engendered suspicion and concern, with some claiming that Germany’s gold has long ago disappeared or been lent out, and that only promissory notes of nominal value are sitting in the vault.

https://www.mining.com/germans-begin-to-demand-their-gold-ba...

myrmidon2• 1 year ago

Note that Germany already finished bringing back 300 tons of gold from NYC and about the same amount from Paris in 2016, so this is a bit out of date (that whole transfer was completed ahead of schedule, which indicates, in hindsight, that probably not all the German gold in NYC was missing completely in 2011 :P).

Eduard• 1 year ago

Note that "currently, 37 per cent of the Bundesbank’s gold reserves are stored in New York.", as per today's FT article.

patrickk2• 1 year ago

Yes indeed, this article is outdated. But I posted it to counter the other comments here which are trying to draw links to Trump bring the reason that the Bundesbank don’t believe the US Fed. In fact, some in Germany have long mistrusted the Fed’s word on how much German gold is still actually in the vaults.

Here is a very fun, deeply speculative article from Zerohedge on this topic, from 2013:

https://archive.is/dVIK3

That's right, ladies and gentlemen, as a result of our cursory examination, we have learned that the world's largest private, and commercial, gold vault, that belonging once upon a time to Chase Manhattan, and now to JPMorgan Chase, is located, right across the street, and at the same level underground, resting just on top of the Manhattan bedrock, as the vault belonging to the New York Federal Reserve, which according to folklore is the official location of the biggest collection of sovereign, public gold in the world.
At this point we would hate to be self-referential, and point out what one of our own commentators noted on the topic of the Fed's vault a year ago, namely that:
Chase Plaza (now the Property of JPM) is linked to the facility via tunnel... I have seen it. The elevators on the Chase side are incredible. They could lift a tank.
... but we won't, and instead we will let readers make up their own mind why the the thousands of tons of sovereign gold in the possession of the New York Fed, have to be literally inches across, if not directly connected, to the largest private gold vault in the world.

Edit: more details about the underground vaults- https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/keys-gold-vaul...

scrlk• 1 year ago

The TradFi version of "not your keys, not your crypto".

jxjnskkzxxhx3• 1 year ago

Damn. I despise crypto, but even I have to admit that there's some power behind this comment. Not because crypto isn't shit, which it is, but because letting someone else hold your gold is stupid. As stupid as letting someone else have your crypto keys. Bravo.

seydor2• 1 year ago

most people dont even have crypto keys, they have a wallet in an exchange

nlitened• 1 year ago

I think government officials holding gold is also “letting someone else have your crypto keys”. What matter does it make if it’s “your” government officials or “someone else’s”

Nifty39295• 1 year ago

I think people greatly overestimate the importance of gold. Gold cannot feed your people, or win a war or cure a disease. And in a crisis likely won't be useful for buying things that do.

Gold is maybe just a bit better than fiat currency. Even in terms of inflation, what would happen to the market value of gold (not in Dollar terms, but in terms of what it can buy) if the government decided to spend down $200B in gold to buy stuff with?

cma2• 1 year ago

In a regional crisis it will

Nifty39295• 1 year ago

How? This issue is never money - it's always availability and logistics. In a regional crisis, what would you do with the gold? Is there anything to buy from outside the region? If so, how would you get it in? And does gold really help here, or would the other countries give it to you or lend it to you anyway?

regularization2• 1 year ago

And in a crisis likely won't be useful for buying things that do.

In a crisis, the value of gold holds more than that of the Papiermark, or even the US dollar - I can buy only one egg for the two I could have bought five years ago. Gold is uniform, portable, divisible and durable - useful attributes in a crisis, and worth more than Confederate dollars.

Gold is useful - for filling teeth, for electronic coating. It's value has stayed normal for thousands of years - although in times of inflation or crisis it might become a little overvalued temporarily as people flee to its safety. One could switch to other precious metals like silver, but this happens to them too.

Nifty39295• 1 year ago

If you think the value of gold has remained stable, that's only because you're only measuring it during times and places of stability. See how much bread your ounce of gold buys you when there's no bread to buy. In a real crisis, the value of gold drops to near zero, just like fiat money does. No hungry person cares about electronic coating.

The best you can say is that gold is tangible, portable and universal. So you can bring it with you (often in the form of jewelry) as you flee, and it will likely return to value in some other time/place.

qwytw2• 1 year ago

It's value has stayed normal for thousands of years - although in times of inflation or crisis it might become a little overvalued temporarily as people flee to its safety

That hasn't been the case after the Dollar and all other currencies were unpegged from gold. Adjusted by inflation it has been a very volatile asset in the last 50 years:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e3/Gold_pri...

ashoeafoot• 1 year ago

Everytime it comes up this fruitless educational effort appears, indicating a persistent irrational value, decoupled from reality . Which makes gold valuable even in conflict zones where irrationality abounds..

Havoc2• 1 year ago

Honestly at this stage all countries should pull their gold.

The system was somewhat reasonable when the US acted more or less benevolent, but clearly when we're in a space where the US threatens to invade allies then they clearly are no longer trustworthy

resource_waste2• 1 year ago

As someone deep into International Relations, I always find it a bit interesting to hear when someone says 'X nation is untrustworthy'. I mostly find it interesting because it means some event disrupted norms to a level that The Commons is aware. Everyone in IR knows trust/morals is not something to put weight into, but 'normies' are always surprised whenever there is a chance in IR that contradicts international law or norms.

It will surprise most Americans to realize the world is not governed by Liberalism/Institutions, despite the veil presented. However, at the highest level the world is managed by the principles of IR Realism.

'Trust' is subordinate to national interests, the purpose of trust is small, only enough to make deals. However, even then, deals are always backed by verification methods and checked consistently.

None of this is unique to the US, The West, or this century.

twixfel2• 1 year ago

If you didn't trust someone, you wouldn't give them all your gold to look after. That's called trust. You can dress it up in terms of realism or whatever, but it's trusting to do it nevertheless.

Havoc2• 1 year ago

Was about 50/50 when I wrote the comment whether to go with unreliable or untrustworthy.

But I think given context of gold held on little more than a pink promise trust is the right word here I think

It will surprise most Americans to realize the world is not governed by Liberalism/Institutions

Yeah was surprised to recently discover less than <50% of the world pop is under democracy. Weird how distorted our perceptions are

neonate• 1 year ago

https://archive.is/6CDR5

tock3• 1 year ago

Not sure why people call this Russian propaganda. India flew in lots of their gold too recently. Central banks have been increasing their exposure to gold a lot recently as well. If trust in the US is low then it makes sense to move your reserves. Countries are rightfully fearful of their reserves being frozen for whatever reason.

crossroadsguy• 1 year ago

for whatever reason

And the biggest of that is:

——

"Look, I don't know... I really don't know. We're talking about a country's gold, very valuable, very beautiful. And we might freeze it. Or we might not. I mean, who knows? It's a big decision, a very big decision. Some people say, 'Freeze it, Mr. President! It'll be great, the best!' Others, and good people, they say, 'Maybe not, maybe we do something else.' But I'll tell you what, I do like frozen things. They're nice. Very nice. You know, you freeze something, it's solid, it's secure. It's beautiful. It's really beautiful. So we'll see. We'll see what happens. It's all on the table. Believe me."

—-

And you’d still say itself far fetched? :-)

lawn• 1 year ago

I can't tell if this is a joke or if it's something Trump has said, and that is scary.

stray• 1 year ago

August 15, 1971 — just sayin'

londons_explore2• 1 year ago

Why would any country store it's own gold outside its own borders?

For any nation state, storage and security costs will be tiny compared to geopolitical risk and leverage they're giving away by storing it abroad.

Loughla• 1 year ago

Store it somewhere safe and stable, that way if you're invaded the government in exile can still access the country's wealth to fund resistance and what-not, or at least keep the invaders from just taking it.

Source: all that stolen wealth in WW2.

londons_explore2• 1 year ago

But it also means that if there is a regime change, the new government will have no money to run the nation, and will have to seriously harm the quality of life of the inhabitants to re-earn those savings through taxation.

It really seems like one option here is best for maintaining the status quo with the existing government, whilst the other is best for the people of the nation.

gen3• 1 year ago

Trade becomes easier. Metaphorically pushing the bar across the room.

Countries also keep cash funds at the NY Federal reserve too

bamboozled• 1 year ago

There is no way the current admin will let this go without a fight, or at all.

alephnerd• 1 year ago

I am absolutely startled by the amount of AfW and BSW apologism on this thread.

At some point I have to wonder if this is even organic - especially given that companies like Upvote Club have openly advertised being able to bypass the bot detectors on HN. And nation state bots have occasionally been on HN - one similar nation state backed disinfo network that Meta cracked down on in 2023 was posting on HN as well.

mensetmanusman5• 1 year ago

Pirates be awakened.

Germany and Italy pressed to bring $245B of gold home from US

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