HN user

gmerc

3,484 karma
Posts13
Comments1,269
View on HN
Kimi Work 2 days ago

Gmail won on price dumping and commoditising the complements, as did Facebook and Instagram and all of American Tech for two decades. They've just met an opponent able to beat their economics because their shareholders are less greedy. There's only one answer to this, same as for Facebook vs TikTok: Lobby for protection

He’s glossing over the reason they are not: 90% profit margin of Nvidia. Power is only a small part, single digit, it will eventually matter but does not really today.

What is the cost of AI? The single largest ingredient is Nvidia profit margin.

Huawei accelerators are not as efficiency yet, but they don’t nearly extract as much margin.

Why would future revenue stay with the labs given this situation? This whole thing had an airline industry sized red flag on it that makes investing into frontier lab about as sexy as investing in United.

Maybe the token economy is some kind of reverberation of the airline reward miles economy, the emergency hatch to be able to survive under maximal supplier extraction (Nvidia is just the top of a monopoly stack here, even if they replace those chips, the HBM, ASML, Foundry layer can get their dues)

Yea but at those rates VCs will never make their money back. Because Deepseek and friends keep releasing the inference optimisations to everyone instead of holding them back to pay their investors.

This is the Nvidia engagement team coaching various countries (See also Malaysia) how to train a Nemotron and add the benchmark questions to the training set so you get that nice PR splash of pretending it’s the best in its language.

It’s just nemotron with benchmark juicing and the sovereign smokescreen on good old Nvidia hardware chain remains intact.