The AI Bubble of 2023

https://thereformedbroker.com/2023/02/07/the-ai-bubble-of-2023/

by yarapavan • 3 years ago

60 140 3 years ago

thereformedbroker.com

EGreg2• 3 years ago

But HN will love it a lot more than Blockchain. Won’t downvote every mention of AI :)

alach11• 3 years ago

Yes, AI is getting a lot of hype right now. No, this is nothing like blockchain.

For something to be overhyped, it must have a hype level disproportionate to its value. Deep learning is generating a huge amount of real value and is solving real problems. When we were getting Superbowl ads for crypto, the value proposition wasn't there.

grogenaut• 3 years ago

I didn't watch the superb owl... did we get AI ads this time?

HideousKojima• 3 years ago

Because it can actually generate some interesting and/or useful content, unlike 99% of Blockchain proposals that amount to "a database, but worse" in the best case and "fraud, but obscured by technobabble" in the worst case.

EGreg2• 3 years ago

When the barrier was lowered, 99% of stuff in the Web 1.0 space was bullshit (remember <blink> and <marquee> tags?), and Web 2.0 was bullshit also (PHP developers making lots of crappy insecure stuff)... the 94th social network for cats and toasters, where they vacuum all your data and sell ads, or charge you hundreds of dollars for a feature that consists of changing one variable somewhere.

Sometimes it was fraud, other times it was just money-losing economics ("traction") where VCs would prop it up and then hoped to dump the stock on an eager public in an IPO before making a dollar in profit (SoftBank took this to the extreme). Other times it just led to monopolies that sucked up everyone's data, engaged in surveillance capitalism, distracted them at dinner and made everyone have the attention of a goldfish. Oh yeah and made them depressed and insecure, especially teenagers.

I'm not sure that's much better than Web3.

beoberha2• 3 years ago

At least with the crypto bubble, VCs could easily drop their bags on the general public. Things are going to be interesting when all these GPT wrappers being billed as “AI companies” start to centralize (how many AI copy writers do we really need?). It’s going to be a race to the bottom and the real winners here are going to be GPU sellers.

smoldesu• 3 years ago

To that end, this weekend I wrote a GPT-Neo-1.3b based Discord bot, and ran it on an Oracle "Always Free" instance. It costs me nothing, and I'm able to play with a surprisingly large/competent AI model.

As the technology progresses and models are optimized/shrunk, I'm not sure if these "AI companies" will ever stand a chance. Even cheap Android smartphones can run the smallest GPT-Neo model, eventually the need for the SAAS wrappers for the technology will be cannibalized.

WalterSear• 3 years ago

You are assuming that copy writing, or even text generation is all that GPT-like AI is good for. These tasks just the scratch the surface of the technology's >existing< abilities. There are tranformers already capable of operating pretty much any desktop GUI.

beoberha2• 3 years ago

No I just didn’t mention it. Mostly because I see companies like Google and Microsoft rolling anything remotely useful for businesses into their offerings.

makotech221• 3 years ago

Talking to AI chat bots is the equivalent of talking to a parrot. I can't wait for the next market crash to wipe these ai and bitcoin companies off the face of the earth. Such a gigantic waste of human effort ( and carbon budget, in the case of bitcoin)

Yiin• 3 years ago

Differently from crypto currencies, AI is actually solving real problems.

valine2• 3 years ago

A parrot can’t play 20 questions, emulate theory of mind, or implement merge sort with pirate themed variable names.

gowld3• 3 years ago

A parrot can’t play 20 questions,

Not, but a tree can.

emulate theory of mind,

Neither can Chat GPT. "Failing a Theory of Mind at the same level a 7 year old does" is no more Theory of Mind than being really good at chess is.

or implement merge sort with pirate themed variable names.

True.

monkeynotes17• 3 years ago

No, no it isn't. I've already used ChatGPT to help me with dozens of management tasks. I got it to help me write a presentation. I have it help me curate 1:1 conversations that are not boring, with my team members context and levels. It can write a song with melody, chords, lyrics, all novel and creative. And remember this is just ~6 months into ChatGPT.

BitCoin had no real use-cases beyond betting and pump and dump and niche trading that the general public could not get in on. ChatGPT is being used creatively today by millions. It does your homework.

How is this classed as a bubble or hype. How can you possibly see it as a waste of effort or equivalent to talking to a parrot??

AnIdiotOnTheNet3• 3 years ago

When I see comments like this I have to wonder if I live in a different reality than whoever wrote it. I saw the potential in GPT models to help me with creative tasks, writing, etc. and I have consistently found it to be really quite unimpressive at it. I didn't even find it to be a good conversation partner.

I can't use it to generate anything without thorough review for soundness either, so it doesn't really have potential to automate much of anything as far as I'm concerned.

About the only really good use of it I have seen is "Nothing, Forever", an entertainment/art piece that thrives on the jank of what it produces.

I have no doubt that technology will eventually get there, but I certainly don't see it as there today.

broast• 3 years ago

The value of text completion goes far beyond chat interfaces. LLM's are computers.

vidarh2• 3 years ago

To add to the last bit: It's trivial to get ChatGPT to evaluate actual code it can't possibly have seen before and correctly produce the expected output. Only limits on the size of context and output stops it from being turing complete.

martinflack• 3 years ago

Yes and no. A pet parrot repeats what you yourself trained it with, or at least the people in the residence. ChatGPT was apparently trained on the web en masse; the parrot can speak back with the sum of human knowledge, to some approximation. That's quite useful. (And also problematic sometimes, as discussed elsewhere.)

kilgnad6• 3 years ago

Just a month ago you would get voted down for saying chatGPT understands the queries you are giving it and is more then just an AI that parrots everything you tell it.

Now we are hitting an inflection point. People are realizing chatGPT is more then that.

The people getting voted down are the people saying chatGPT is just some trivial word generator. The masses are realizing that chatGPT is different.

There's just been years and years of AI buzz so people are used to downplaying it. So much so that when something genuinely intelligent is built they just fall into the same generic pattern of saying that these things are just statistical word generators because "oh it got my specific question wrong." It's biased because they are dismissing everything it gets right.

vidarh2• 3 years ago

In ~10 minutes of asking for an outline first and then asking it to fill in functions it left unimplemented in the first replies, I got ChatGPT to provide the basics of a DNS server from scratch that I only had to correct about two lines of to be able to run and execute queries against.

This isn't a hard problem (it's a few dozen lines of code to do the bare minimum, maybe a couple of hundreds to add a reasonably full featured parser), but it involved a conversation of refining it that wasn't just "fill in this missing detail", but e.g. asking it to implement parsing of the query package in a specific language (Ruby), using a specific API, and using a specific format. Ruby ships with a DNS implementation; the ChatGPT solution looks nothing like either the standard Ruby implementation or the alternative Ruby DNS implementations I've checked.

You must know parrots with better reasoning skills than I do.

[EDIT: Note that I specifically picked this exactly because I was sceptical of how well it'd do, it's something I've done before myself, with a protocol I know well enough to be able to evaluate the code without much effort]

dpflan• 3 years ago

Is this wild speculation the material for creating bubbles?

FTA:

"Walmsley adds that he’s heard venture-capital investors speculate that the market for generative AI applications could be as large as $1 trillion. He notes that the world has over one billion knowledge workers; OpenAI charges $42 a month for the professional version of ChatGPT. If you assume every one of those people gets two accounts—one general, and one specialized—you get close $1 trillion."

gowld3• 3 years ago

It's OK speculation, but the economics is bad. If everyone is willing to pay for ChatGPT, the price is clearly far too low. The optimal price for a product is almost never the price where the audience is 100% saturated.

rtkwe2• 3 years ago

That's even worse because that's saying the trillion dollar industry were every knowledge worker pays $84 a month for ChatGPT accounts is the bottom end of the range.

tootie• 3 years ago

ChatGPT just absolutely can't ever own the market. It only works by siphoning off the intellectual output of humans. There will be a tipping point where it's just going to recycling it's own output until it's content becomes like "blurry JPEG of the internet" as the New Yorker put it. It can still be extremely valuable in some niches and even opening up new market opportunities that maybe didn't exist before, but it really just can't overtake any markets without eating itself.

rtkwe2• 3 years ago

That kind of "well if we as a single company manage to take over this entire sector that's a $XX Billion/Trillion dollar market" is how the tech world evaluation has been completely broken. It's part of what drove Tesla stock to the insane valuation it's still not coming down from, "well if self driving ever delivers they could take over the car, bus/public transit AND taxi businesses at the same time!" without even demonstrating a real hands off autopilot.

Attrecomet• 3 years ago

I especially like the entirely random factor of two thrown in there -- everybody will get two accounts because why?

Ncarpentieri42• 3 years ago

Lol I know, like let's just 2X the TAM here for zero reason

SunghoYahng• 3 years ago

What about assuming every one of those people gets 1 trillion accounts

monkeynotes17• 3 years ago

Here's my killer app theory for stuff like GPT, just one example...

MS Teams gets the GPT treatment. It watches all your chats, email, calendars, code, wiki, meetings, spreadsheets, documents. Where is Slack now?

If you want to know absolutely anything from engineering domain knowledge to product strategy through to aiding you in sales, Slack has no answer. Ask Teams to splat you a database table, refine an SQL statement, brief you on a meeting, remind me of who a particular customer is and what sort of sales pitch would appeal to them.

I mean, not seeing the potential in GPT is really being intentionally blind to world changing technology. Just the fact that it can scan your whole codebase, find potential security holes, suggest performance blind-spots and indeed write code, or at least suggest code, this alone is such a big change it's hard to get your head around the opportunity. All of that in a chat window or IDE. It's revolutionary.

kypro4• 3 years ago

I was saying the same thing to a colleague a couple of weeks back. The power of ChatGPT will become obvious when it's sucking in all of an orgs data.

At that point instead of your boss asking you to send an email to someone or asking the data team to pull some stat, they'll just ask the chatbot to do it for them.

My guess is 80%+ of the work most people in corporate jobs do could fairly easily be automated with the next generation of GPT being fully integrated with an organisations data and tools.

It's so obvious the power of this technology. Those saying ChatGPT is still making a few programming errors with their crappy prompts are missing the point. Wait until a slightly more advanced version of GPT has access to your dev documentation + all your repos + your jira ticket board + your dev environment.

You won't even need to ask it to do anything. Your boss is going to quickly wonder why they need a team of 20 devs when a team of 2 devs reviewing ChatGPT pull requests is 10x more efficient.

mlsu• 3 years ago

If you thought tech debt was bad with human programmers...

somewhereoutth2• 3 years ago

Wait until a slightly more advanced version

Yes, and therein lies the issue - that last crucial 1%, 0.1% may be impossible to achieve (sort of like attaining lightspeed travel)

riku_iki8• 3 years ago

Wait until a slightly more advanced version of GPT has access to your dev documentation + all your repos + your jira ticket board + your dev environment.

why you are so confident chatgpt ever will be able to work as independent dev and won't hit the limit of it's abilities?

JieJie• 3 years ago

Or all twenty devs stay and eighty more get hired because DevGPT can do 100x more work in the same amount of time.

RhysU• 3 years ago

The power of ChatGPT will become obvious when it's sucking in all of an orgs data.

I am having a hard time seeing this.

Intranet/corporate search has forever been awful in comparison to internet search.

nrjames• 3 years ago

Incidentally, it's amazing how terrible MS Teams is at code blocks, both the creation of them and the copy/pasting/using the code from one somebody else created.

RandomLensman3• 3 years ago

The real application is increasing bureaucracy massively. Nothing that doesn't get an opinion filed for or some "memo" attached to it. No request for comment ever unanswered, nothing that doesn't deserve some written specs or an risk assessment. No process not documented in lengthy prose etc.

monkeynotes17• 3 years ago

Pretty cynical opinion.

rvz3• 3 years ago

I mean, not seeing the potential in GPT is really being intentionally blind to world changing technology. Just the fact that it can scan your whole codebase, find potential security holes, suggest performance blind-spots. All of that in a chat window or IDE. It's revolutionary.

Except that we are just left with outputs that are untrustworthy. All of these GPT products; ChatGPT, Copilot, Bard, Bing AI are still frequently hallucinating answers and often very incorrect solutions. We have already seen this with Copilot writing vulnerable code.

What this current AI hype cycle fails to realize is that given that you still cannot trust the generated output, it cannot be used safely in serious and highly regulated industries such as finance, law and medical professions all of which require trust and have been subject to AI disruption for years all with the same problem of trust being unsolved in AI. It is not enough to even disrupt search engines.

There is nothing new or revolutionary about a AI SaaS business with an API with a chatbot generating nonsense. I expect the hype around AI LLM chatbots to subside just like the hype around social spaces apps like Clubhouse did.

monkeynotes17• 3 years ago

outputs that are untrustworthy

Seems like this is an interesting engineering or product problem worth solving. History is littered with big problems that were solved. Go look at flight, within 50 years we went from "it's not possible", to it's too fragile, to jets, to international airports and mass transit never before possible.

If you work in tech I think you've slept through your life.

unraveller2• 3 years ago

An anonymous clubhouse is back on the cards with realtime a.i. voice synth.

Trust in information is for people who outsource their every opinion, all they want to know is if it will keep them in high esteem for re-stating it and blinding following it. Well, for law, health, finance, that depends what year you got your opinion since the best information changes. Which is what we want if we want better.

A.I. output is just Words on a screen, it only promises coherence. How well a technology assists you is up to you or else we'd call it a torture device.

rco8786• 3 years ago

yes, i've been trying to drive this home to folks around me also.

AI is only as good as the data it's learned from. There is little to no value in a really super awesome prompt. "Prompt engineering" is not a real thing. There is, however, enormous value in an AI that has learned on some specific set of data that nobody else has access to.

IOW, data is still the currency.

robotburrito• 3 years ago

Basically everyone I know is on either extreme. Either they say "It just makes stuff up and it's totally useless!" and some how not even admitting it's very cool, or acting like it's going to lead to all of us just being homeless and 1% of of the population that owns the AI having even more wealth.

anonyfox4• 3 years ago

sounds like a possible way to detect who will be on which end of the spectrum /s

monkeynotes17• 3 years ago

The reality, as always, is somewhere in the middle

crazysim• 3 years ago

You should see https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-teams/premium .

It may not be what you describe but they are definitely flirting.

swatcoder• 3 years ago

That won’t work until somebody designs a reliable security model for LLM’s.

In the real world, you can’t have a model that slurps up every bit of information in a company and then just lets anybody ask open ended questions about it.

But the security solutions for these technologies are far from maturity. They’re almost certainly addressable, but its going to be a whole industry in itself, will take years to take shape, and will probably involve underlying architectures that are designed very differently from what we see in this generation of models.

monkeynotes17• 3 years ago

So you agree it's possible, desirable, and game changing? I think those are hugely positive indicators this will happen and people sitting comfortably in the status quo are going to lose out.

These corporate AI instances will take huge configuration, and like when IBM started adding infrastructure to large corps it was a huge effort. But the reward and advantage it provided was worth the millions of dollars and years of work. Eventually it all permeated down to consumers.

How long this will take it up for debate, but I don't think we can easily dismiss that it's inevitable.

poisonborz• 3 years ago

Imagine the prompt hacking possibilites, this time not to generate outputs, but to reveal private discourses. Imagine that when this hallucinates, you will have wrong impressions on your colleagues or the state of projects.

rvz3• 3 years ago

Just as we saw companies adding the suffix “dot com” to their names in the 90’s and announcing “blockchain” initiatives in 2017, so too will we now see an endless parade of AI announcements in 2023.

Correct. Everyone and their cats are now an AI company again. Hyping and parading about a hallucinating chatbot is going to change the world and take over search engines and kill Google. It won't. It needs to do more than that to even challenge Google.

We are already looking at its limitations and after looking at both Bing AI, ChatGPT and Google Bard, they all fall short at reliability and it is all fundamentally rooted to the black-box nature of neural networks.

The hype and mania will go on just as long as how Clubhouse was hyped on for in 2020 and like what happened to GPT-3 after that AI hype cycle died.

rom-antics3• 3 years ago

Bubble of... 2023? This has been going on for a while. Since at least 5 years founders have known the way to get funding is to claim your product has "machine learning" or "artificial intelligence"

gowld3• 3 years ago

The AI Bubble of 2023 is the Generative AI Bubble of 2023

Tepix• 3 years ago

But the pure AI companies like OpenAI and Tenstorrent haven't gone public yet.

kilgnad6• 3 years ago

chatGPT is more then a bubble. It's a societal inflection point. The reaction to it is appropriate.

However as usual people will get too excited and the hype will outpace the actuality of the technology. There will be a slight "bubble" but this isn't anything like the "housing bubble".

Prior to chatGPT though, ai could be characterized as something along the lines of a housing bubble. I would say almost all lines of research in ai save llms are over hyped bubbles.

Not saying these lines of research are useless or inconsequential. Far from it. Ai outside of llms is amazing. But these Ais are definitely inside huge bubbles.

noobermin5• 3 years ago

That's good because the OP didn't compare it to the housing bubble at all. He just said "bubble."

neom2• 3 years ago

Tom Scotts video today re where we are on the AI's impact to society curve was interesting : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomSc...

I think he's probably right that we're very early on the adoption curve.

(even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.)

adamsmith1433• 3 years ago

(even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.)

You get downvoted because it's not a coherent position. It's like saying I'm really bullish on renewable energy powered by web3 blockchains. It's just a mishmash of buzzwords. The reality is Quantum Computing has limited use cases in general computing and AI isn't really one of them. I don't think there's even an argument that e.g. a quantum chip offers any real advantage over a TPU or even GPU for AI tasks.

kypro4• 3 years ago

I've heard some people cite quantum physics to explain free will and consciousness, although these arguments always seemed completely unsupported and a form of "god of the gaps" reasoning to me.

But being charitable I suppose if you subscribe to the idea that creativity and consciousness arise from quantum behaviours then perhaps it makes sense. It would suggest we likely have the architecture of an AGI completely wrong currently though, so I'm not sure how this really relates to AIs like ChatGPT.

ksec• 3 years ago

It is what Nvidia's boss Jensen Huang calls [1] The iPhone moment of AI.

Basically every AI ( so to speak ) before ChatGPT is like Smartphone 1.0. Blackberry, Sony Ericsson, Nokia Symbian etc. ChatGPT is the Smartphone 2.0, aka iPhone era.

It look iPhone many years to reach mass adoption. MKBHD, as tech savvy as he is only had his first Smartphone in iPhone 4S era. ( If I remember correctly ). And then Phablet ( Any Screen larger than 5" ) came. I think we are at the end of that curve, 15 years after the iPhone introduction.

I think ChatGPT will follow a similar path. And if it was iPhone that pushed TSMC to sustain our current semiconductor improvement for the past ~10 years, then it will be ChatGPT that pushes us towards 1A ( 1nm ) node for another decade.

[1]https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ceo-calls-chatgpt-as-one-of-the-...

ryloric• 3 years ago

Unrelated, I've never seen this dude without a leather jacket on.

luplex• 3 years ago

AGI doesn't need quantum computing, but I'm sure it will be useful when we finally figure it out.

Maybe we need AI to figure out quantum computing.

noobermin5• 3 years ago

The downvotes on QC are likely somewhat understandable. Unlike chatgpt there are no results that give hope that QC will look like "computing" any time soon unless there is a breakthrough on the horizon.

exig02112• 3 years ago

So, what is the "best" ETF to invest in the new tulip mania craze.

All "AI" ETF that i see are filled with generic IT companies...

Anyone found a good one yet ?

seizethecheese• 3 years ago

Probably look up the hardware that is being used at Azure.

exig02112• 3 years ago

so far my best bet is Nvidia (As a proxy to the AI vertical)

pavlov• 3 years ago

These days it's difficult and expensive for a company to go public. So when it's early enough that you could make a good return just going long on this kind of bubble blowing up, there aren't yet companies in the public markets to invest into.

So what happens is that awful companies that happen to be already public will try to reinvent themselves as part of the trend. Some past examples:

- Fish-oil company Zapata happened to own the domain zap.com, so in 1999 they became an Internet portal: https://www.forbes.com/1999/04/13/mu11.html?sh=5d90ad3b65d8

- In 2017 a beverage company called Long Island Iced Tea changed its name to Long Blockchain Corp: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/21/long-island-iced-tea-micro-c...

With mostly companies of this quality to pick from, anybody who built an Internet portfolio in 1999 or a blockchain portfolio in 2017 probably lost 99% of their money.

typest• 3 years ago

The other day, I was trying to build a web scraper, but I kept getting an error that the data wasn't utf-8 encoded. I gave chatgpt the error along with the first 10 bytes (e.g. b'\x1f\x8b\x08\x00\x00\x00\x00\x00\x00\x03') and it informed me that this was a gzip-encoded binary file, and then it wrote me working code to decompress the file.

This is extremely valuable and saved me hours/was the difference between me stopping or not.

There will surely be people that overhype this, but there is real value as well.

rom-antics3• 3 years ago

To be fair, you could google "1f 8b" or even that entire hex string and Google will tell you the same thing.

riku_iki8• 3 years ago

the difference is that with google you can trace the source of the statement, and with chatgtp they only option is to believe.

kilgnad6• 3 years ago

Wow. Pretty amazing that chatGPT knows how to use Google.

elil173• 3 years ago

Bubbles can be based in real value.

The dotcom bubble was a bubble because there were a lot of junk, overvalued companies. Doesn't mean websites aren't useful.

kilgnad6• 3 years ago

I know what you mean but the word "bubble" implies no value. A bubble is mostly empty space of no value, the surface of the bubble hides the emptiness.

When the bubble pop as it inevitably does the emptiness is exposed.

The meaning you're going for here is that although there's a "bubble" it's likely a smaller bubble, not a large bubble like the dotcom bubble or the housing bubble.

thefilmore2• 3 years ago

The first result of searching for your string on Google is a StackOverflow link [1] that mentions that this is a gzip header. There is another link [2] below it showing how to decompress it.

[1] https://stackoverflow.com/questions/58552645/what-exactly-is...

[2] https://stackoverflow.com/questions/57328953/trying-to-decod...

timr2• 3 years ago

This strikes me as comically similar to patterns I see in tech: people not knowing what came before, and fixating on overly complex new solutions to problems that were trivially solved with prior tools.

I fully expect a node.js server in a docker container to query GPT for error messages found in logs. They'll give it a cutesy name like ChattyDev, and before you know it, every coding school will be pumping out coders who think it's an essential development tool, and HN threads filled with people who will defend the practice to the death, referring to examples such as left-pad for prior art.

"yeah, well...people made fun of left-pad, but we see how it has completely automated the padding of strings, removing one more chance for error!"

noobermin5• 3 years ago

I hate to say it, but this is exhibit A in the "AI will just make some developers even more lazy than SO did"

lm28469• 3 years ago

It's nice and all but simply putting "b'\x1f\x8b\x08\x00\x00\x00\x00\" in google search gives you the same answer (first link even)

testcase_delta• 3 years ago

I started out reading the article thinking the author was going to say that it's all vaporware, but he doesn't at all.

somewhereoutth2• 3 years ago

I believe that the crucial test of real AI will be if a group of such AIs invent their own language to allow them to cooperate - much like intelligent animal species such as ourselves. The richness of the language indicates the depth of intelligence.

Any such language would necessarily be limited to their 'domain of existence' - you can't invent words for colours if your world has no light. Thus we'd need to give the AIs a full domain of existence for a full AI. They would need eyes (and ears?) and locomotion so they have a real world to reason about and talk about to each other (and us?)

The point being that emergent language is the only general way to gauge intelligence (above and beyond the somewhat anachronistic Turing test). I also conjecture that human language (in fact any human language) is complete in the sense that any and everything can be described within it (e.g. you could explain General Relativity to any human from any time, using their own language, as the basic concepts are already present, you just build on them - whereas this might not be possible with bird calls).

Furthermore, if our language is indeed complete, then we could suggest that any intelligent alien species we might encounter will also have at best a similarly complete language - and thus cannot be meaningfully more intelligent than us, as there is no 'higher' language, no concepts inaccessible to us.

paulpauper• 3 years ago

Where was this guy warning of a crypto bubble in 2020-2021? Instead he was hyping crypto. If this is any indication, AI will probably continue to do well. I don't think GPT be as big as Google, but it's not going to pop either as he is expecting.

Ncarpentieri42• 3 years ago

After investing and building through the crypto bull market and now experiencing this bear market, the sentiment from more revered tech figures on AI's incoming prowess and impact is definitely higher-signal than those who preached the crypto gospel for the last few years. Think that's worth something in forming a view on this. I still think there will be a bubble, but it will be different.

oliwarner• 3 years ago

Bubbles are hype awaiting delivery but what we're seeing is delivery before expectation; before that hype.

Don't get me wrong, there definitely is excitement and hype, but it's all off the back of what's available today. There is no bubble to pop. If ChatGPT and diffusion models are the upper limit of the tech, it can still be applied today to disrupt whole industries.

That's not too say there won't be waves of grifters —some of them AI— fluffing products that never materialise or under-deliver, but I think our imagination is going to lag behind the tech, not the other way around.

The AI Bubble of 2023

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