Germany has three months to save itself from a winter gas crisis

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-01/germany-heading-to-gas-emergency-with-russia-keeping-nord-stream-flows-reduced

by novaRom • 4 years ago

56 174 4 years ago

bloomberg.com

Mizza• 4 years ago

It's going to be a cold winter for sure, but I'm hoping this will force Europe to get really, really serious about renewables.

miguelazo2• 4 years ago

As much as I support renewables, this is a very naive statement. Germany has been especially good at investing in renewables. They're not enough, especially not in the short or even medium term.

mistrial9• 4 years ago

why is efficiency never discussed in public?

ref: Nega-Watts

_ph_2• 4 years ago

Yes and no. Germany was on a great track until the early 10s. There solar and wind installations peaked and then steeply declined, as a consequence of the actions of the same government which had hastened the exit from nuclear. So yes, on the one side, Germany has a quite high quota in renewables in electricity production (>50%), but we fell quite behind what would have been possible and at the same time became more dependent on Russian gas. But there is hope for things to speed up again and make good progress in the next years.

seren• 4 years ago

It is hard to get any new project online in three months, but surely Europe will be really really serious about energy saving this winter, it might be a good idea to buy a few more pullovers..

Ekaros6• 4 years ago

I don't think renewables are a solution... So might be time just to give up on climate goals and start burning lot more goal.

unixhero2• 4 years ago

Serious about NUCLEAR

bryanlarsen• 4 years ago

Which would solve the problem in about 20 years.

beberlei4• 4 years ago

nuclear energy is so expensive, take the new plants in the US and france that are being built. 10-20 years in construction, 10x over costs. You can't really build a new nuclear plant in 1-2 years

ch4s33• 4 years ago

That doesn't replace oil/gas boilers. You can have all of the solar and wind you want, and you'd still guzzle gas in the winter using oil boilers in most of the country.

__MatrixMan__• 4 years ago

It ain't gonna happen in three months, but if you have all of the solar and wind you want you can stockpile synthetic methane in the summer and burn it in the winter.

fiftyfifty• 4 years ago

The could use excess wind and solar electricity to power coal gasification plants to generate natural gas that they can then use in the winter, without having to retrofit any boilers. They can even make heating oil from coal: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_gasification

ekianjo2• 4 years ago

really serious about renewables.

I thought Germany was already really serious about renewables for the last 20 years, look where it brought them.

beberlei4• 4 years ago

They claimed to be really serious, but the conservative government of the last 16 years put in roadblock after roadblock, for example:

* wind energy deployment decreased massively in the last 3-4 years due to bureaucracy.

* Solar was always complicated, if you had it on the roof of your own house you would need to register a small business regardless and declare extra taxes every 3 month.

mort96• 4 years ago

It brought them to a place which is less dependent on Russia than they otherwise would have been? And had they been yet more serious about renewables, they would have been even less dependent on Russia.

If you want to criticise them, criticise them for not going with nuclear, not for trying to build out alternatives to gas. That makes no sense.

perf1• 4 years ago

Renewables make things much worse because they need loots of Gas as Backup if the sun isn't shining or there is no wind. Which happens very often in Germany especially in the Winter.

miguelazo2• 4 years ago

The Europeans have been put in a very difficult position by the US Deep State. It's hard to imagine any of their governments will survive, much less Biden's. The question I really want answered is: who authorized the ramped up bombing of Eastern Ukraine (by the Ukrainians) in February? That is the person who really escalated this crisis. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/osce-reports-surge-numb...

rasz5• 4 years ago

3 months to somehow convince Ukraine to give up, or at least force EU to abandon sanctions.

Edit: I do need to put /s tag on obvious stuff after all.

timbit424• 4 years ago

I'm hoping the sanctions remain after this war ends, assuming it ever ends.

ndr• 4 years ago

If sanctions were to remain after this war ends, how would they be useful as deterrent? Or how would they encourage the war to end any sooner?

theropost• 4 years ago

I'd like to know how these sanctions are working for us. So, we've sanctioned Russian oil/exports, so now Russia sells its in-demand resources to Asia. The price of said resources have rallied, creating balance of accounts > before the aggression in favour of Russia. On the other side (the west), we suddenly have higher fuel prices, shortages piling up, and increasing inflation. In this regard, are sanctions truly useful? Or are they simply a way of saying we're doing something, without physically doing something - a lot similar to posting a long winded reply on an internet forum.. as I sit home, in my chair.

yrgulation2• 4 years ago

Germany is experiencing the results of corruption and arrogance. Not working with allies because "it knows better" has led to this exact moment. Enjoy winter!

mordae• 4 years ago

Not sure why this was downvoted.

yrgulation2• 4 years ago

Goes against the carefully crafted image here on hn that corruption only exists in other countries and not germany, and that, as merkel said recently, the sanctions against russian gas are actually a means to punish germany. The solution in many of these people’s minds is to let ukraine die and continue doing business as usual.

yalogin• 4 years ago

I hope this doesn't escalate into a full blown war. It's easy to stay calm when the gas is still flowing but when winter comes Germany will want to end the Ukraine invasion and so will pressure everyone involved to finish it off. Since giving up on Ukraine is not an option, forcing Putin out is the only way. Not sure how that is going to be resolved/achieved.

rasz5• 4 years ago

Its already a full blown war, with civilians being targeted with cruise missiles (Kalibr). https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/27/ukraine-shop...

Do you mean a war where proper Germans die?

nailer• 4 years ago

US President warning Germany about Russia in 2018:

"Reliance on a single foreign supplier can leave a nation vulnerable to extortion and intimidation. That is why we congratulate European states, such as Poland, for leading the construction of a Baltic pipeline so that nations are not dependent on Russia to meet their energy needs. Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not immediately change course,"
"Here in the Western Hemisphere, we are committed to maintaining our independence from the encroachment of expansionist foreign powers."

belltaco• 4 years ago

Back in 2014:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells...

YarickR2• 4 years ago

Back in early 2014: "Fuck the EU" - Victoria Nuland. Google it up. As it stands, EU is being consistently and thoroughly fucked

TMWNN5• 4 years ago

Let's name names. Trump, the abovementioned president, at the UN in 2018 warns that Germany is endangering itself by increasing dependence on Russia. German envoys laugh <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfJv9QYrlwgepe>, including foreign minister Heiko Maas, today enjoying a quiet retirement back home in Saarland.

rvz• 4 years ago

Now, they are really quiet today and are still struggling to admit their foolishness, since they have now realised years later that they have become Europe's biggest fools, such that it's even more embarrassing to them that it also came directly from Trump, alongside with other points he specifically made at the time which aged like fine wine.

So Germany will indeed learn the hard way, despite ignoring the repeated warnings.

legitster5• 4 years ago

The last few presidents have said the same thing - here's Obama in 2014: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-eu-summit/obama-tells...

Trump also yanked the rug out from under the TPP which effectively locked in our manufacturing relationship with China, so glass houses and all that.

karmakurtisaani2• 4 years ago

Is this the same Trump who said he trusts Mr. Putin's word over his own intelligence agencies? Let's not kid ourselves that he had nothing but making himself look good in mind when he said those "warnings".

raverbashing3• 4 years ago

The article is a bit sensationalistic

Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.

Yes, the industries will have a harder time, but for example, shifting generation from gas to even coal can save gas where it's needed

the premier of the state of Saxony from the opposition conservatives. “If we aren’t careful, Germany could become deindustrialized,”

Oh that's cute. Where was this guy when this happened? https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/closing-wind-turbine-pl... (mostly because of NIMBYism). I guess you reap what you sow

oneoff7867• 4 years ago

A lot of German industry runs on gas. They literally won’t work otherwise.

lettergram2• 4 years ago

The article is a bit sensationalistic Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.

Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia. Russia just turned off the taps, so you’re looking at a shortfall of 30-40% for winter (assuming it doesn’t restart).

What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month). You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills.

Not to mention, this will force companies to shutdown. Energy costs are too high to maintain production. So you’ll see people losing their jobs AND having crazy bills.

This will impact everything across the board - food, goods, etc.

https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/germany

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany

bildung2• 4 years ago

Just so the situation is clear, half of Germany energy is imported from Russia.

Not energy, but only gas.

What does this mean for people on the ground? Energy prices can easily go 10x (so a $300 bill becomes $3000/month).

Almost no household pays $300 for heating here. We life in a large flat and paid 120€/month last year (including warming all water for the year).

You’d have to drop the heating of your home by 20 degrees and you’ll still be seeing $1000/month bills.

If we drop heating altogether our flat cools down to 11°C during winter (found out the hard way because our heating system broke down during winter a few years ago), so reducing heating by 100% means a delta of 9°C. Reducing target temperature to 18°C instead of 20°C would save perhaps 25% of gas. I personally expect increases of about 1000€ for the whole heating season for our household (i.e. about triple costs).

The German depencence on gas is bad for multiple reasons, but your numbers are quite hyberbolic.

TMWNN5• 4 years ago

The article is a bit sensationalistic
Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.

As others told you, this is completely wrong.

If you don't believe said state premier, how about the head of Germany's federation of unions <https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-faces-entire-industr...>:

"Entire industries are in danger of collapsing permanently because of the gas bottlenecks: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry," Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, told Bild am Sonntag. "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."

Russian gas is used in Germany for

* heating homes

* powering factories

* feedstock for those factories

Ekaros6• 4 years ago

And who thought that entering economic warfare with country that can kill your entire economy is a smart idea...

petre2• 4 years ago

Germans will put a sweater inside their houses and turn the thermostat down.

They've been already been doing that to save money. We have friends there, they sleep at 18°C. I don't expect them to sleep at 16°C now.

tharkun__4• 4 years ago

I do wonder. Who sleeps at more than 20C? If night time temps stay at or above 20 everyone complains about "tropical nights" and that it's too hot to sleep. So I don't expect people to heat to 20 for sleeping. Do they actually do that? I'd totally overheat. 18C is totally enough a d 16C is totally OK as well.

That said, this is for the bed room. I wouldn't want to get up and sit at the breakfast table at 16C. That should stay comfy.

jollyllama5• 4 years ago

Who knows, the military situation could change a lot in three months. The article doesn't really take that into account.

raverbashing3• 4 years ago

Buying from the same unreliable supplier again would be a "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me"

ahartmetz• 4 years ago

It's not necessarily the same supplier anymore once the chief assclown in charge is gone. On the other hand, Russia has a centuries old tradition of awful leaders and suffering people, so...

jollyllama5• 4 years ago

Relatively speaking, the deprivation is easier to sell to EU citizens when the crisis is immediate. It's more compelling when lives and land are more clearly on the line, today. If the conflict goes cold again, it's harder to argue against importing gas.

oneoff7867• 4 years ago

I can’t imagine a drastic sweep from either side leading to a quick reset of energy markets

ekianjo2• 4 years ago

Ukraine will fall quickly if they stop getting support from the outside in terms of weapons and supply.

neals• 4 years ago

As always, Russia is waiting for Winter to force their enemies hand.

toyg• 4 years ago

Are they? They're effectively the ones in no-man's land at the moment. If they can't consolidate their gains before winter, they will struggle.

wobbleblob6• 4 years ago

That's a cliche that's not historically accurate.

Napoleon's army occupied Moscow by late summer. They started their retreat in early fall, and got stuck in the mud. His army had been mostly destroyed before winter even started.

In the first world war, the German army fought through 3 winters in Russia before Russia surrendered.

In the second world war, the German army fought through 3 winters before they were defeated.

In the February 2022 Russian invasion in to Ukraine, the Russian army got stuck in the mud and was forced to abandon their siege of Kiev under heavy losses.

The Russian winter isn't necessarily any more pleasant for the Russians than for their enemies. I'm sure they made use of the climatic circumstances, but the weather didn't do the work for them. Napoleon and the nazis were both defeated by an opponent with a better grand strategy and logistics.

namaria4• 4 years ago

Ah yes, hoping for a quick resolution of conflicts in the Russian front has always been a safe bet /s

UncleOxidant3• 4 years ago

Firstly, it doesn't seem likely that we'll see a major change in the next three months, but for the sake of argument, let's roll with it for a sec. Let's say there's some big change, I guess I'm having trouble imagining a change in military situation in the next 3 months that would change the situation for Germany. Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany? Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?

jollyllama5• 4 years ago

Ukraine kicks Russia out and Russia decides to restore gas to Germany?

Why would Russia need to maintain leverage at that point? Wouldn't they be better off just selling the gas and taking the money?

Russia decisively takes more of Ukraine... and somehow all sanctions are dropped?

If that happens, and the immediate conflict is resolved, what material reason is there for EU citizens to endure the cold?

sofixa• 4 years ago

A coup in Russia deposing Putin wouldn't be unexpected. The Russian economy is going down the drain, and the real world common people effects of all the sanctions are going to be felt more and more. Rumbling from the rabble could push oligarchs being sad about their yachts, mansions and vacations to act. Or disgruntled scapegoated military/intelligence officers taking revenge. Or an Ukrainian hit squad.

There's plenty of time for the situation to change drastically, but nobody should rely on that happening.

bluedino• 4 years ago

One thing that stands out to me is that 10 million (25%) of German households use heating oil.

The United States only has 5 million households that use heating oil. Why haven't they retrofit the houses in Germany (assuming they are older)?

oneoff7867• 4 years ago

Because they had a lot of cheap oil previosuly

timbit424• 4 years ago

What percent is using electric resistance heating? If those are replaced with heat pumps with a COP of 3 to 4, that could free up enough electricity for the oil furnaces to also be replaced with heat pumps that plug right into existing duct work. This might sufficiently reduce their need for heating oil to last this winter.

Of course, such quick acquisition and installation might be difficult or impossible, and purchasing and installing all those heat pumps won't be inexpensive, although it would save money over the long term. Perhaps the German government could provide financial grants or loans for those unable to afford it.

beberlei4• 4 years ago

They already provide financial help for heat pumps, but the problem is that

a.) there are not enough skilled workers that know how to deploy these. in fact it was just published in the news that due to boomers going in pension the workforce in this area already reduced over 10% in the last years and projected to sink even more. b.) most houses that are using Gas heating are not isolated well enough to make a switch to heat pumps financially viable.

the_mitsuhiko3• 4 years ago

Retrofitting costs money and lots of people don’t want to switch because oil is quite cheap.

schroeding• 4 years ago

We have to thank the stars on our knees that they were not yet retrofitted, as most would have been retrofitted with a gas boiler, making everything even worse.

My landlord replaced the heating oil boiler this (!) summer with a gas one. :( :(

legitster5• 4 years ago

At least I don't think domestic heating sources are a big driver of consumption. It's the power production that's the real kick in the pants.

ghaff• 4 years ago

I was sufficiently shocked by the US number that I looked it up. Apparently they're essentially all in the Northeast where I've lived which is why it's always seemed super-common.

TMWNN5• 4 years ago

It's been striking how little discussion there is of this in /r/europe and /r/germany. (The latter has pinned a megathread for the topic, the classic way of killing discussion.) /r/de is slightly better, if only because of the absence of the constant "I don't know German but want to move to Germany and get a job" posts.

I don't mean to say that there's been nothing, along the lines of the 100% censorship that happened at /r/news the day of the 2016 Orlando mass shooter. There has been some. But there is far, far, far less. Just last moth we had

* a German minister stating that becoming dependent on Russian gas was a "grievous mistake", and that his country is begging for turbines from Canada "with a heavy heart"

* His government stating that entire industries might "collapse"

* Rationing of gas announced

* Local municipalities planning warm buildings that those without heat in their homes can visit during the winter

This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years. It is an existential threat to the German (and, thus, European) economy and nation. Any other topic half as serious would occupy far more of these subreddits' front pages. And it is entirely self-inflicted.

Ekaros6• 4 years ago

I would guess that there is one worse catastrophe in past 80 years for Germany...

TMWNN5• 4 years ago

Which is why I said 80 years and not 85 years.

tomjen32• 4 years ago

80 years? That seems an extreme statement for what will essentially be a recession and having to wear more clothing indoors. Do you have some basis that this will be worse than 2008?

HPsquared• 4 years ago

That was only a recession.

the_mitsuhiko3• 4 years ago

Energy is all over the news since April in Germany. Everything that could be discussed was discussed. At one point a topic has been fully explored. What else is there to discuss?

TMWNN5• 4 years ago

Look at how many others here are saying that it will be "just a recession" in which Germans can "just wear a sweater", as opposed to people facing home heating bills rising 5-10X and complete shutdown of many factories from the lack of both power and feedstock.

davidktr• 4 years ago

This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years

Detected the West German. Ever considered what happened in the East in the 1990s? 25 percent unemployment? Try that for a crisis, than we can talk again.

d_e_solomon• 4 years ago

This is the greatest German catastrophe in 80 years. It is an existential threat to the German (and, thus, European) economy and nation. Any other topic half as serious would occupy far more of these subreddits' front pages. And it is entirely self-inflicted.

Um... Berlin wall?

88840-8855• 4 years ago

I fully agree.

The worst thing is that people seem not to realize the long-term effect. Everyone is talking about the winter.

Cheap energy is NOT coming back though. It is over. The window of opportunity for NS2 is also closing.

Germany has the choice to either do what Putin wants and survive or hold on to its values and lose its competitive advantage.

rasz5• 4 years ago

SPD tried very hard doing what Putin wants.

"On February 27th, the German arms industry gave Chancellor Olaf Scholz a 48 page list of military equipment that they could send to Ukraine. Scholz waited until today to forward it to the Ukrainians but his office only sent the Ukrainians half the document)"

"While Ukraine was offered Marder IFV, Boxer APC and even Leopard-2 MBT as well as Panzerhaubitze 2000 by German companies, it is not allowed to buy any of these systems in Germany"

1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.

2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.

3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.

4) Germany's defense industry leaks the list to Ukraine's ambassador.

5) Scholz says that the weapons on the list don't work.

6) The defense industry denies this and leaks the list to the press.

7) Scholz states Ukrainians can't master the weapons in the available time.

8) German defense experts tell the German press that Ukrainians can master the weapons in 2-3 weeks.

9) Scholz says the weapons are needed by NATO and NATO must approve their transfer.

10) NATO officials and German generals deny this.

11) Scholz says no other NATO/EU ally is delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine.

12) The US, UK, Australia, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Denmark, Romania, Netherlands, etc. publish the lists of heavy weapon they deliver to Ukraine.

13) Under pressure Scholz announces €2 billion for Ukraine's military.

14) German parliamentarians find out that it's really just €1 billion, which won't be available for another 2-3 months, and then Scholz can veto or delay indefinitely every item Ukraine wants to buy.

15) The US, France, Poland, Romania, Japan, the UK and Italy, plus the heads of EU and NATO spend an afternoon trying to talk sense into Scholz.

16) Scholz makes a statement and says Ukraine can have the €1 billion now and order whatever it wants from the list.

17) Ukraine's ambassador says that Scholz removed all the items Ukraine actually wants from the list before giving it to Ukraine and what remains on the list is just a fraction of the €1 billion.

18) Scholz claims that there is no ammunition anymore for the Leopard tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles.

19) Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Egypt, the US, Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, Egypt respectively France are saying the produce these ammo types.

20) Scholz says countries delivering armored vehicles to Ukraine will be attacked by russia with nuclear weapons.

21) The US, UK, Australia, France, Poland, Spain, Italy, Romania, Slovakia, Czechia, Netherlands, Denmark all report they were not hit by nuclear weapons.

woweoe6• 4 years ago

There seems to be a trend of covering up and looking the other way on many major political issues right now in the US. I presume it is a different story in Germany itself.

wobbleblob6• 4 years ago

It's easy to point at Germany and tell them they have only themselves to blame, for becoming so dependent on Russian gas, but aren't we in the US making the same mistake when it comes to manufactured goods? Even a slight disturbance in Chinese manufacturing due to Covid caused a massive supply chain problem here.

Imagine a scenario where China invades Taiwan. Besides losing access to about half the world's production of semi conductors, would we even be able to put sanctions on China without causing complete chaos here?

bradhe• 4 years ago

The implication is that it's somehow better to be "self reliant" but that is also basically impossible.

nradov5• 4 years ago

The implication is that it's better to not be reliant on an adversary. Some level of reliance on reliable allies is fine.

wobbleblob6• 4 years ago

It's more about being reliant on one source under the control of a potential rival.

GenerocUsername• 4 years ago

The Global economy has stood for ~40-60 years.

Local/Regional economies have existed since the dawn of agriculture.

It is reasonable to assume we will regress towards the mean at some point

namaria4• 4 years ago

There has been supra regional integration (not just marginal - noticeably influencing domestic economies and politics too) since the time Roman merchants plied the Indian sea around the first century CE. I recommend reading "Boundless Sea" from Abulafia for more insight. Autocracies starve themselves to death.

dvfjsdhgfv• 4 years ago

Unless people know the price and understand it first hand that global, peaceful cooperation is far superior to domestic production and petty fights.

nradov5• 4 years ago

Yes that's true, but for political reasons we would have to impose those sanctions and accept the chaos. Fortunately the mainstream political establishment has now recognized China as a real threat, and steps are being taken to decouple strategic industries. Hopefully some significant progress will be made before China builds up enough amphibious lift capacity to effect an invasion of Taiwan. At this point it's a race.

woweoe6• 4 years ago

Taiwan is lost in terms of defending it from any Chinese invasion. The US has been on the other end of proxy wars with China (Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea) and has not managed to win one of them, and Ukraine is a big mess for everyone involved, and the US will not be deeply involved in the future. Hong Kong is a good example of the limitations of defending Taiwan.

FpUser• 4 years ago

"It's easy to point at Germany and tell them they have only themselves to blame, for becoming so dependent on Russian gas"

They were stupid to shutdown their nuclear stations. That is for sure.

"magine a scenario where China invades Taiwan. Besides losing access to about half the world's production of semi conductors, would we even be able to put sanctions on China without causing complete chaos here? "

The US and the rest of the Western world wanted cheap manufacturing. They got what they wanted. They've lifted whole bunch of Asian people out of poverty, made China a superpower, got some Western haves to get insanely rich and at the same time it allowed poor Joes Schmoes still enjoy a bit better life. It was good while it lasted. Now it seems that the love affair comes apart.

Ekaros6• 4 years ago

Spend decades furthering their own geopolitical goals. Now it might be turn for someone else.

AtlasBarfed• 4 years ago

One of the reasons I LOVE home solar and BEVs. It makes us so much more resilient to outages and disasters and disruptions on the critical aspects of energy, heating/cooling, and transportation.

How much would germany kill to have a robust home solar installation right now? Even if you reduce dependence buy 20-30% from previous levels, that opens options for other sourcing.

And, uh, how about people bundle up and live in chillier houses? Christ they don't even really go under freezing that much. Sleep under thicker blankets.

There's other options: crash programs for insulation. wood stoves.

But I agree, there absolutely should be a minimum local sourcing for most products. We certainly do it for agriculture effectively with trade barriers and other regulation.

These ultra-extended supply lines are outgrowths of monopoly and cartel economics which dominate our markets rather than a robust amount of competition (which would enable options as well as alternate sourcing). We need a lot more competition and antitrust enforcement. The amount of political power handed to both state powers and the monopoly companies that are their partners is outlandish and dangerous.

cudgy• 4 years ago

How much would germany kill to have a robust home solar installation right now?

Maybe not much killing, since solar requires consistent sunlight, which is not as prevalent in Germany.

tharkun__4• 4 years ago

Despite what the sibling says which is also true, especially in winter, Germany has a lot of solar in comparison to ten years ago and depending on what you do otherwise for heating building a house requires solar (it seems a lot of people use it for hot water instead of electricity) installations. Being Germany there's lots of rules which I don't know in detail since I don't live there. But here's a quick Google result for some of it: https://www.nibe.eu/de-de/support/artikel/solaranlage#pflich...

Also a lot of landlords (corporate ones) have already announced that they will only supply heating up to 20C this winter. There's a lot of discussion about that going around i.e. people complaining about that.

legitster5• 4 years ago

Well, a good attempt was made with the TPP.

But I think the difference is that China is more of a potential threat while Russia has long been a malicious actor. Germany should have known better and had several options they actively turned down (shuttering Nuclear plants for example).

woweoe6• 4 years ago

Half of Germany was that "Russia" you forget.

throwoutway3• 4 years ago

I would not call the TPP a good attempt. While perhaps the intent was good, the attempt was terrible. The proposed ideas were so bad that neither presidential candidate in the 2016 election wanted anything to do with it. And the new president has not joined the successor (CPTPP)

smileysteve• 4 years ago

Yes.

The Tariffs from 2017 remain in place on some cheap goods from China.

The Chips Act passed last week.

If the proposed legislation for energy / climate passes, it will target subsidizing domestic solar panels + cars.

novaRom• 4 years ago

In May 2022, Chinese officials ordered government agencies and state-backed companies to remove personal computers produced by American corporations and replace them with equipment from domestic companies.

source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-06/china-ord...

wobbleblob6• 4 years ago

That's not what I mean. Half the world's semi conductors are made at the TSMC complex in Taiwan. If China invaded, we would lose access to those.

scyzoryk_xyz2• 4 years ago

Germany does not only "have itself to blame" - the gas relationship dates back to the Soviet Union and was supposed to work the other way around. The way Germany saw it, it was the Soviet Union that would become technologically and economically dependent on the West. It was a good plan.

After the unexpected collapse of the Soviet Union the ex-KGB people knew that this was like the one deal that could make a fortune and give them access to power. Germany was be eager to keep up their end of the deal. What Germans didn't understand is that the people on the other side of the table were not the old communist politicians but corrupt gangsters.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the entire West has only itself to blame in the way it underestimated Putin's strategic prowess and brutality. Influence is a two way road and all that.

I think that you are correct in seeing the similarities to the US-China relationship, but I don't think it's that simple. For one China isn't stupid. They will continue to do what they can to exert power in this relationship. But China is in an advantageous position right now, so they don't need to be invading anyone. What's more, the people in charge in China aren't gangsters, they're a political party with an actual ideology. That makes a big difference because these kinds of people usually aren't very eager to handle wars. What's more likely in the coming years are proxy wars and competing ambitious economic infrastructure development plans. But then again, all plans have a way of backfiring in one way or another, sooner or later so we will just have to wait and see.

wobbleblob6• 4 years ago

It was just an example, I don't have any special insight into the China-Taiwan situation. Maybe the conflict would be over a TV show, or a sports match, who knows. It just occurs to me that if there's a situation where we cut China off, or China cuts us off, we would be in the situation Germany is in now.

China would stand to lose a lot of money in that situation, but our economy would be severely disrupted as well. Russia is showing that for a totalitarian regime, losing a lot of money may not necessarily be a complete show stopper. They could make that choice and decide it's worth it, if they don't have to worry about the polls and are able to shape the narrative their own population gets to see.

rasz5• 4 years ago

the gas relationship dates back to the Soviet Union and was supposed to work the other way around.

You mean like the last time?

German–Soviet Trade and Credit Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Soviet_Credit_A...

"expectation of eventual territorial expansion to the Baltic countries, Finland and Poland, with the approval of either the Western powers or Germany" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin's_speech_of_19_August_1...

"In the event of a territorial and political rearrangement of the areas belonging to the Polish state the spheres of influence of Germany and the U.S.S.R. shall be bounded approximately by the line of the rivers Narew, Vistula, and San."

"With regard to Southeastern Europe attention is called by the Soviet side to its interest in Bessarabia (Moldova & Ukraine). The German side declares its complete political disinterestedness in these areas."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germany%E2%80%93Soviet_Union_r...

jacquesm• 4 years ago

Sanctions will always be a two-sided sword. But that doesn't mean you should not enact them, even if they hurt.

It's just about the only action short of war that might cause a party to think twice, though, in practice it tends to harm the populations much more than it ever does the leaders (who in fact may find a boost from them).

It's a blunt and imprecise tool but it's what's in the tool drawer and there isn't much else in there other than war.

kranke155• 4 years ago

It seems to me like the war will succeed in its goal in some form or another - the world has drastically changed, and we might be seeing the end of Europe as a global economic power.

After Russia is finished with Europe we might have a far smaller economy, while they rebound with ease because what they sell can be sold anywhere at some price. Gas alone has done like a 20x in price. Even if Ukraine is a frozen conflict in 6 months, some of those billions will be used to attempt to re elect Trump, and if he wins, then Europe will be left alone (and helpless) to fight Russia, who seems to easily outnumber and outfight European nations. The fact is Russia is willing to do anything to take over Ukraine, while the West has “limits”. Those limits are the seeds of our downfall in Ukraine. Then if Trump will end Article 5 of NATO and then we might see chaos.

Russia is in a decent position to come out the winner of this, and the western media is dangerously underreporting this.

bjourne• 4 years ago

Proper isolation goes a long way... My house is connected to district heating and isolated to withstand -25C night temperatures. It even isolates against heat in the summer. +30C outside but a cool 22C inside. Thus the cost of heating is very low. It's not rocket science, just make walls thicker and ensure there is no draft through windows.

koolba• 4 years ago

I’m guessing you mean insulation.

Isolated houses wouldn’t be on the grid anyway right?

tharkun__4• 4 years ago

Very probably. Isolation is a "false friend" in German and English (also in French and English). Meaning both languages have that word but they mean something different depending on context.

In this case "Isolation" in German is used both for insulation and isolation while they are separate words in English for the two.

zahma• 4 years ago

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Schr%C3%B6der

Former PM Schröder is nearly solely responsible for hooking Germany on cheap Russian oil. Just look at who he works for now — he’s effectively a Russian oligarch at this point and defended Russia’s latest invasion of Ukraine.

sebazzz• 4 years ago

We really should have thought twice in Europe when MH17 was shot down and Russia took Crimea.

Instead we nodded slightly in disappointment and happily continued making ourselves dependent on Russian gas.

simonblack• 4 years ago

Self-inflicted crisis.

The Nordstream 2 pipeline is pressurised and ready to go. Germany just has to switch it on.

throwoutway3• 4 years ago

There's this other geopolitical thing that's been happening.

Germany has three months to save itself from a winter gas crisis

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