Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-09/where-people-leaving-new-york-california-and-illinois-are-going

by nishantvyas • 7 years ago

193 608 7 years ago

yboris3• 7 years ago

Would be great if their charts were showing % rather than absolute numbers (or at least would show % in addition to absolute numbers).

It shouldn't be too surprising: California and New York are in top 5 by population size.

ps - their use of "hemorrhaging" to describe movement of people feels inappropriate.

freehunter2• 7 years ago

“Hemorrhaging” is a pretty common way to describe an exodus of people or money. It’s a common metaphor that’s also used in “stop the bleeding” or the similar “stem the tide”.

Business is full of otherwise wildly inappropriate phrases, like “drink the kool-aid” in reference to the mass suicide of nearly 1000 people in the Jonestown cult. I have no idea how that’s considered an appropriate phrase for any situation but I hear it constantly in office settings.

triceratops5• 7 years ago

It was long enough ago that many people have forgotten the origin of the phrase. It's just become one of those sayings that means "buy completely into the idea".

yboris3• 7 years ago

I think you're right in that it's a common phrase in conversation. It just doesn't seem appropriate for a new outlet that attempts to be more-objective than sensationalist. I do see this is an opinion rather than a regular article, but still ...

"Hemorrhaging" evokes memories of bleeding, indicating severe danger. I pay a lot of attention to metaphors after reading "Metaphors We Live By" (an excellent classic book).

magduf3• 7 years ago

Business is full of otherwise wildly inappropriate phrases, like “drink the kool-aid” in reference to the mass suicide of nearly 1000 people in the Jonestown cult. I have no idea how that’s considered an appropriate phrase for any situation

I'm sorry, I don't see the problem. It's a completely apt metaphor for people buying into group-think, with disastrous results. The Jonestown tragedy is a perfect example of what happens when people don't question what they're told, and we should never forget it.

sgustard• 7 years ago

The issue with the word is that implies something that if left unchecked will cause disaster. So 100k people per year have left, and yet "California’s population still grew by about 2 million over this period". I really don't see the problem.

zone4113• 7 years ago

My company did a map like this. The highest percentages in 2015-2016 are HI to CA, WY to CO, ND to MN, DE to PA, NH to MA, NM to TX, KS to MO, OR to WA. A map without neighboring states is more interesting.

tardo993• 7 years ago

I live in California.

An interesting thing we learned is that if we move out of the country for, say, 3 years, unless we set up our lives so we have no intention of remaining California residents, the state will continue to pursue us for income taxes even while overseas. Federal law has a different system which makes more sense -- a tax exemption while overseas.

Given that we expect to spend a substantial amount of time overseas in the future for personal reasons, I'm thinking we may need to move to a zero tax state in the US first, just to get out from under the sway of California.

I'm curious if anyone else on HN has experience with this.

gamblor956• 7 years ago

This is a misunderstanding of how CA tax law works.

If you move to say, Nevada, before moving to China or wherever, but you always intended to return to CA afterwards, then for state tax purposes you never stopped being a CA resident. So, for example, if you keep a storage locker with your furniture in Cupertino for when you return, you clearly never intended to permanently leave and so you're still a CA resident for tax purposes.

If you don't plan on coming back to CA after moving to China or wherever, you stop being a CA resident immediately and only owe state taxes for the part of the year you still lived in CA. And it's easy to show that you are no longer a CA resident, for example, by selling all of your CA-based property.

seanmcdirmid10• 7 years ago

If you own a house in California and visit it often, even if you are living in China, they might still claim you are on the hook for California taxes. I guess you really have to move out and then rent the house out or sell it to be off the hook.

The biggest issue with CA and moving abroad temporarily is that CA doesn't have a foreign earned income exclusion or foreign tax credit. So you really don't want to be a CA resident if you need to move out of the USA.

Since I moved to Switzerland (and then China, ironically enough) from CA, it was something I had to look into...I wasn't sure if they would come back and say I was a CA resident even though I really had no ties there. In particular, if I wanted to vote, I could have in CA, but that would have been a bad mistake. On the other hand, I wasn't eligible to vote in any other state, so I spent 11 years not voting. When I finally left China, it was for a job in CA...which also gave me some pause as I didn't intend to return to CA in the first place.

tardo993• 7 years ago

Obviously I was talking about the situation where one doesn't want to sell all property in CA and wants to be able to return to CA from time to time, maybe for months at a time.

Anyway, our current thinking is to establish residence in Nevada (probably in Tahoe) and then go to Europe from there. Thanks for the downvotes.

jandrewrogers• 7 years ago

In my experience, California still tries to claim tax residency based on owning a house there (on the basis that it is not a rental in this case), despite moving out of State a decade prior and visiting infrequently. It doesn't matter if you own a house, have a job, and all the other accoutrements of a life in another State, they'll still harass you about paying income tax. Even if you are staying in the country but in another State, it still might be a good idea to dispose of all CA-based property.

When it comes to taxes, California has a serious stalker vibe.

maximente• 7 years ago

this largely depends on your future plans, such as if you plan to return upon your return to the US. my non-professional recommendation to you is to minimally get a lease w/ witness while signing it in new state, new drivers' license, and utility bills in your name with non-trivial activity. obviously this is not free, but consider it insurance and vastly cheaper than 11% + penalty backtaxes on CA income.

obviously you are welcome to skimp out on any one of these, but you'll have trouble convincing auditors you're a resident without it. note that NYC tax authorities have solicited location data for purposes of 183 day rule, etc.; i am not an expert in CA but precedent is there.

blahneverdies2• 7 years ago

Not sure why this was down-voted, but this has been one of my concerns about ever moving to CA in the first place--I wouldn't want to be stalked by this predatory creature for the rest of my life. (And have already experienced this to a lesser degree with a couple of other-coast states.)

Keverw3• 7 years ago

Yeah, I was wondering how that'd apply to getting accepted in YC... Maybe you intend to go back home after the 3 months or locate to another city big in tech like Austin or Boston. Wonder if California would try to say you were a resident, however I feel like YC would be more similar logically to how college students are treated since usually you are still a resident of where your parents live, unless you intend to get a job and live where you went to school after graduation.

Keverw3• 7 years ago

Yep, I heard of this too. The guy who helped invent the processor moved to Nevada to an apartment, and California tried to say that an apartment isn't a permanent residence and stalked the guy even sending state employees to dig through his trash. He ended up suing California in Nevada and a judge ordered the state to pay him a lot of money, but the state found a loop hole to wiggle out of paying what the judge ordered.

New York is supposed to be very aggressive too. So say you left New York and left items in storage, the state might say you never left.

Same with going to college or the military, you are still considered a resident of your last state since it's assumed your heading back home after college and during the summer breaks, unless you decide to live and stay where you go to college after instead of returning home then you'd need to take steps to change your domicile and move your stuff. One of the reasons you don't have to change your license after 30 or so days, same as someone on vacation since they intend to return home and not living where you are visiting.

I know digital nomads and full time RVers run into this issue, since you are technically homeless for living in a vehicle but still need a driver license and registration somewhere, but a few states are friendly to full time RVers, with South Dakota being the easiest to setup domicile where they only require you to rent a PMB and spend a night at a hotel or campground but all about intent. Some states won't help you unless multiple proofs or you get assistant from a homeless shelter. So if you retired buying a half a million dollar RV, the state considers you the same as a homeless person living on a park bench even if you don't consider yourself homeless.

So you should sell your house, take all your stuff but if you want to keep it in storage rent storage in your new state, update bank to the new state if it's a national bank - if it's a local only bank or credit union need to close your account, update your will for the new state, cancel or switch gym membership if a national gym (like planet fitness, change your home club to your new state) and other steps. Then estate taxes too. I know I was reading once some man who lived in NJ rented a locker in NY and New York decided he was a resident because of that. Then some places will claim you as resident based on where you purchase a grave plot. Seems like this stuff can be tricky, especially the richer you are. I know rich people with multiple homes, domicile issues seem big, but even people who live in RVs have to plan for this. For example recently President Trump declared Florida as his domicile instead of Florida since he owns properties in both states.

Most people only have one house, so that's both their domicile and residence. Then if you are famous, your family get to profit from your likeness when you die, so say you were Elvis, and courts ruled that's based on the state you were domiciled in. Tennessee for example is much more protective and allows family to profit the longest compared to other states, as remember reading someone died and family was trying to argue if they were really a Tennessee or California resident.

So domicile is based on both intent and action. Kinda interesting someone who lives in a RV has to understand and do the same legal steps as a multi-millionaire with multiple houses, but I guess they never considered people would live in RVs, or work remotely traveling. Probably Americans working and living overseas is a minority too, but some states like California don't want to let their residents go. I know someone in a RV group posted they left South Carolina to retire and RV full time seeing the country, and haven't been back to SC for over a year, and the state still wanted to tax them over 6,000 and they charge property taxes on vehicles. Then VA considers a RV a luxury and taxes them extra compared to cars even if your RV is your home. Then someone from Michigan didn't want to change states to one of the friendlier ones, so rented a mailbox and changed his license online, later to get a threatening letter from the DMV since they didn't consider it a valid address, leaving them the option of switching states or using a friend or relatives address. Then I guess after a full time RVer switches domicile, then legally they are just on a long vacation since SD says you have to return once every 5 years.

dfsegoat• 7 years ago

Sonoma County, CA here. We've lost more people from our county than any other in the state between 2017-2018 [1], and it is only continuing.

From the few of these people I have spoken with - anecdotally:

- None left because of the fire risk, specifically. [though some obviously did - 2]

- Most left because of the cost of living: $600k avg home price.

- Some also left because of political and human environment: We have homeless encampments on our bike trails. We have fires caused by illegal cooking fires at these encampments. Petty crime is increasing, and state laws are only enabling this - people are sick of it.

1 - https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/9149705-181/sonoma-county...

2 - https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona/2019/04/2...

triceratops5• 7 years ago

$600k avg home price.
homeless encampments on our bike trails

These seem linked somehow...

option2• 7 years ago

Are they really? An honest question - suppose the housing does a nosedive to 100K. I still find it hard to believe that those living on the streets in tents with no jobs will rush to buy houses.

The other category of “invisible” homeless - those living in cars and at friends places/garages will of course benefit if the average price of the housing drops

Ididntdothis2• 7 years ago

I work remotely but just moved to Sonoma county because my partner got a job here. The house prices are really insane. Seems most people here are either rich retirees or people whose families have lived here for a long time and made a ton of money with real estate bought before prices exploded. I don’t see any jobs here that would even remotely justify the house prices. It’s a beautiful area but the economy is pretty weird.

borkt4• 7 years ago

I'm born and raised Sonoma County (as is my wife) and we are about the only people we grew up with who still live here. We saved/worked through college bought a house at a decent time (2014), and our mortgage payment for 3BR/2BA is less than many friends pay for a room. If my wife wasn't a winemaker we would most likely not be living here either. I cannot begin to understand how or why people would move here, and many people have come from out of the area to work at the City I work for only to leave after a year or two of living in a home 1/4 the size of where they come from and saving absolutely no money despite their pay increase. We've had 3 people hired for the same position all decline after a month or so of looking for housing, saying they cannot find a place where they could afford based on the salary (and the salaries are high).

bproven• 7 years ago

Seems most people here are either rich retirees or people whose families have lived here for a long time and made a ton of money with real estate bought before prices exploded

Yep - I lived there between 2015-2017 and this about sums it up.

ttwwmm5• 7 years ago

Weird is certainly the word for it. The SF real estate catastrophe is pushing up prices here, particularly the south end of the county, while (in the small tech scene at least) salaries haven't adjusted. I've lived here since 2011 but I don't think I would start here today. But of course, anyone who bought a house 20 years ago is just fine since their costs are fixed. Renters and recent buyers pick up the tax bill. Thanks a lot, Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association!

(Seriously, Prop 13 is awful policy.)

claudeganon2• 7 years ago

We have fires caused by illegal cooking fires at these encampments.

Be careful about tossing around this kind of rhetoric. I heard the same story about a fire in my old neighborhood in LA. It turned out that the son of the head of Chamber of Commerce started it trying to firebomb an encampment.

https://ktla.com/2019/09/04/suspects-in-eagle-rock-brush-fir...

borkt4• 7 years ago

Please research the facts before posting this. The fires have been caused by people using Propane tanks with attachments to heat their flammable tents.

lightedman2• 7 years ago

"Be careful about tossing around this kind of rhetoric."

It's literally the cause of every fire in Riverside County so it is FAR from rhetoric, it is FACTUAL. It starts in the riverbottoms, from homeless cooking fires.

smsm423• 7 years ago

Petty crime is increasing, and state laws are only enabling this - people are sick of it.

I wonder if people considered voting the politicians who made these laws out. Judging from CA voting patterns, probably not. And then when it gets really bad, they move to another state and likely vote for the same policies that caused them to move in the first place.

cft• 7 years ago

They not only don't vote them out, but they double down on their voting patterns.

bronco210162• 7 years ago

I first heard of this phenomenon the other day from a coworker that lives south of Atlanta, near the major movie/tv production area. People, from what are typically blue areas, are moving in and radically changing the political landscape according to him. He wasn’t necessarily against liberal ideas but his complaint was that they seem to vote for taxes just for the hell of it because every tax proposed is still significantly less than where they came from.

Either way, interesting times.

nradov3• 7 years ago

California has largely become a single party state. I'm not trying to start an argument between Democrats and Republicans here, but we can clearly see a pattern everywhere in the world. Once single party rule is institutionalized the politicians are no longer accountable to voter interests.

MattyRad• 7 years ago

Reno resident here. Policy change is something I tend to worry about given there's been a huge influx of Californian "refugees" over past the several years. If California continues its trajectory with housing costs and homelessness, it could definitely "bleed over."

Homelessness isn't as big of an issue here than it is in California (I expect in part because of the colder weather), but housing costs have definitely been affected.

bsder3• 7 years ago

So, I presume you have the legislative solution for homelessness? I'm sure lots of people would be very interested, so let's hear it.

ip26• 7 years ago

If Sonoma alone (or along with other small voting blocs) is bearing the brunt of state policy it may not feel in their power to change.

akhilcacharya• 7 years ago

Crime peaked when Pete Wilson was governor and California was a swing state. Since then, under Davis, Schwarzenegger, Brown, and now Newsom it has decreased significantly.

[0] https://www.ppic.org/publication/crime-trends-in-california/

plandis• 7 years ago

I know quite a few fairly liberal people who moved explicitly because they wanted to do this. To a lot of people in my social circle, it seems inherently unfair that at a federal level your vote counts for more in a lot of conservative rural areas.

anon463637• 7 years ago

Poor people are broke and don't have good jobs with livable wages, so the average life quality is less for people at the very bottom. A fraction of people will turn to self-/other-harming-distractions like drug use, crime and mischief when things aren't good. Couple that with upstanding citizens being unarmed and helpless unless they're billionaires, judges or Laurie Smith's buddies, criminals are going to see most Californias as "easy pickin's." "Tough on crime" hasn't worked, the War on Drugs has failed miserably and hating on poor people isn't going to solve anything.

jelliclesfarm24• 7 years ago

Sonoma county needs to clean up. Rampant drug abuse, crime(prop 47) and homeless encampments everywhere. I can’t even begin to explain the hassle I had to deal with my farm there. My farm business is literally trashed due to Sonoma county’s lack of law and order.

346792• 7 years ago

Former Sonoma County resident from 2009-2017 here. Three break-ins in my last year and a half caused my exodus. A new skate park had been built across the street that included bathrooms and a bus stop. A homeless camp immediately sprang up in the woods behind it, and I started getting robbed.

That combined with the fact that the garden I had was 100% legal locally until the state legalized recreational cannabis and the county went for the cash grab. What Sonoma County did to their small cannabis farmers is another huge reason people are heading elsewhere.

It left me in the position of leaving or having an illegal garden that was being robbed. I can tell you that I didn't move to Northern California to grow cannabis illegally and I didn't move to the woods to get robbed, so the choice to leave was tough but unambiguous.

jvanderbot3• 7 years ago

Edit: I misunderstood.

narrator• 7 years ago

Forcing homeless services into an area and the subsequent homeless people entering your neighborhood is the politically correct 21st century version of blockbusting[1]. I suspect this is probably why Amazon, not exactly a friend of poor people, is putting homeless shelters in their offices, so they can lower the surrounding real estate prices and more easily expand[2].

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockbusting

[2]https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-headquarters-homeless...

jimmaswell• 7 years ago

Drifting the topic but I've wondered why they don't section off some good wilderness land to let homeless people make a kind of wild west type town for themselves. If I was homeless I'd certainly rather live off the land in that setting with a nice cabin even without electricity, catch my own meat, and generally be able to be self-sustaining than sleep on concrete and panhandle.

prawn2• 7 years ago

Can you talk more about the state laws? Are they not discouraging homelessness or are they too weak on petty crime?

Izkata• 7 years ago

The second one, as far as I'm aware (not from California): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_California_Proposition_47

ttwwmm5• 7 years ago

Here's some background on homelessness: https://calmatters.org/explainers/californias-homelessness-c...

I don't expect that you intended it this way, but be aware that the way you've phrased the question is likely to offend --- homelessness is complex and most homeless folks aren't criminals.

Supermancho• 7 years ago

Those kinds of troubles are the same reason people leave other areas I know well - Most of Orange County/LA County, CA and King County (Seattle)

seanmcdirmid10• 7 years ago

Are you sure they are leaving king county, because the traffic keeps getting worse here? I wish more would leave, we are full up.

ourmandave• 7 years ago

The numbers are shown in tables with Net Migration (taxpayers and dependents) and their Average Income of departing taxpayers.

So 75,386 (taxpayers and dependents) moved from IL to FL and their average income was $135K.

That seems to imply that they all took their high paying jobs with them somehow.

blululu• 7 years ago

This may be slightly skewed by the effect of retirees (people earn the most before they retire). Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather. A lot of affluent people leave the state and retire to Florida. I'm not sure if the article's analysis is really concerned with these nuances.

OrangeMango• 7 years ago

Illinois has high taxes and terrible weather

Illinois has a flat income tax; at $135k income you would only be beat by the states that have no income tax (like Florida). Most of the states on that list also have weather that is either terrible in the summer or terrible in the winter, so I doubt that weather is really a factor in people moving.

ghaff• 7 years ago

The data would be more interesting if it factored out people retiring. I'm actually a bit surprised that people from New York and Illinois seem to stay on the East Coast by moving to Florida for the most part. But, in any case, I expect that the Nevada, Arizona, and Florida migrations in particular are driven by retirement to a significant degree.

That said, anecdotally, I do know a fair number of people who have left California and essentially no one who has moved there absent a work-related reason to live there. The state has things going for it but also a lot of negatives--especially CoL in a lot of places.

sct202• 7 years ago

So, the guy who sold RxBar ($600m in 2017) moved to Florida from Illinois (Chicago) in this time span, and I'm wondering thinking if that's partly why the Illinois to Florida avg income is so high compared to every other number on the state to state tables.

Edit for additional context, RxBar had no outside funding or venture capital, so that $600m went to the founders and maybe other early employees. https://www.inc.com/robbie-abed/this-chicago-startup-sold-it...

siculars• 7 years ago

Having left NYC for Texas 5 years ago, I can confirm the grass is greener on the other side.

alehul• 7 years ago

What part of Texas, and how has it been better?

As someone from the northeast, I'm intrigued!

coding123• 7 years ago

Can't stand the rampant cell towers there, where they literally let people have one, give them money and only the neighbors that live there get screwed.

blahneverdies2• 7 years ago

I'd assume that grass was brown and dead. (But no state taxes would be nice.)

azimuth11• 7 years ago

The tech job market in Dallas and Houston is pretty hot.

reaperducer5• 7 years ago

I'd assume that grass was brown and dead.

Only if everything you know about Texas you learned from cartoons.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

It rains all the damn time on the coast. You dont even have to water your lawn and it stays green.

psychometry• 7 years ago

Greener, but also regressive and generally playing catch-up to progress. Texas ranks in the bottom half of states on most quality-of-life rankings.

corporate_shi11• 7 years ago

"progress"

Is that why net immigration to Texas is positive?

On what quality of life metrics does Texas rank poorly?

bnjms• 7 years ago

Define regressive and progressive. I see these terms used all the time but I've never seen a description that matched the words.

mbesto2• 7 years ago

Having lived in NYC, SV, London and Chicago, living in Austin has been dream.

That being said, it's pretty clear it's heading towards Seattle levels, which is quickly headed towards SF levels of societal issues.

throw51319• 7 years ago

What about it has been a dream? Very curious as I live in nyc right now and want to make a change. How has NYC stacked against these other places?

ardit332• 7 years ago

In't it too hot on Summers....? How do you deal with the heat...

neonate• 7 years ago

http://archive.md/vo0cm

whatsmyusername3• 7 years ago

Pittsburgh is great.

RobRivera• 7 years ago

There was a recent article about a googler who suffered from Industrial air pollution and claims Pittsburgh is not a place to move to.

whatsmyusername3• 7 years ago

And about 10 articles debunking it. Pittsburgh's air quality is roughly on par with the bay area. Granted, it ain't great but compared to where else Google is based? shrug

ex: https://weather.com/news/news/2019-04-24-most-air-polluted-c...

Balance this against a growing tech scene (Fintech, robotics, self driving, all sorts of interesting stuff. No VC money but there are orgs like PNC's Numo and CMU investing), a great food scene (Walters makes bang'n brisket but Spork is the best place to eat in the city), pretty good cultural events (the ballet is probably my favorite), easy access to NY/DC/etc, and an excellent cost of living (my 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath was 160k and has appreciated 25k in 2 years).

Clarion coke works to the southeast is absolutely an air pollution quagmire but it has little to no impact on the city (except potentially the extreme east side). Biggest downside is we're stuck in Pennsylvania.

To the Googler's point, Google's office is located in Bakery Square. This is directly next to Penn Avenue which is a major thoroughfare. If you spent most of your time next to bumper to bumper traffic it'd be likely you'd have a poor opinion of Pittsburgh's air quality even though it's entirely unrepresentative of the city as a whole.

volkk2• 7 years ago

What's the story behind the more affluent going to Wyoming? Would love to understand this

QuercusMax• 7 years ago

Probably a tax dodge / vacation home thing. I have no actual information to back this up, but usually when rich people start moving somewhere it's to save money.

ore0s• 7 years ago

Tax haven! https://www.npr.org/2016/04/08/473477551/why-wyomings-laws-m...

volkk2• 7 years ago

okay but you don't have to entirely relocate your home there do you? this doesn't sound right

driverdan3• 7 years ago

That's some weak reporting. It says it's easy to setup shell corps with a registered agent. That's true for most states and is perfectly legal.

They should have discussed how WY makes it easier than most states to avoid being directly connected in any documentation of the shell corp. This makes it harder to track down the real owners in cases when they're being used illegally or sought for litigation.

pb7• 7 years ago

I'm guessing there is a lot of cheap land near beautiful nature, skiing, hiking, etc that people tend to do in retirement.

codingdave• 7 years ago

At least one factor is one of the lowest property tax rates in the country. When you have no mortgage, housing prices don't drive your monthly burn rate as much as property taxes. It changes the picture completely on what you look at when choosing where to go.

zone4113• 7 years ago

We made a map using domestic migration data: https://twitter.com/LechMazur/status/1202655115628466177

glofish4• 7 years ago

the direction (your arrows) are too small and hard to see, yet the most important part of a visualization

perhaps put the arrow at the end, that way one can see which connection is a source and which one is a target

zone4113• 7 years ago

The ends are actually pointed towards the destination state. I think the direction is pretty visible once you expand https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELCwc3xWkAEEbgW?format=jpg&name=... but point taken, thanks.

mdavidn2• 7 years ago

It seems obvious that states with the largest populations would see the most people leave. This graphic would be more interesting if the scale were per 1,000 capita.

bduerst• 7 years ago

I tend to agree, but how would you weight it between states?

Per 1000 capita in the source state or the destination state?

Also that would overweight the low pop density states, assuming there's a baseline immigration rate, painting an entirely different picture with the Dakotas/Wyoming/etc.

chadlavi• 7 years ago

I'd like to cordially invite more folks to leave New York to make room (and depressed housing prices) for the rest of us. Thanks in advance!

Ozumandias• 7 years ago

After you, sir.

vondur3• 7 years ago

Pretty easy to figure out in California. High cost of living, crime is out of control, homeless taking over parts of the city. Our state government is either unwilling or unable to address these issues. So sale your overpriced property and move to a state with more sensible policies and taxes. Seems pretty reasonable.

sharkmerry2• 7 years ago

Crime has ticked up slightly compared to the lows, but it has comparable rates to the 60s right now. Before the explosion of crime in the 70s and 80s

vondur3• 7 years ago

Many people aren’t bothering to report crimes now. The police won’t do anything about it. You can pretty much get away will minor property crimes/theft now without any repercussions.

kilroy123• 7 years ago

I'm a native Californian and everyone in my family badly wants to move for all of those reasons.

glofish4• 7 years ago

Considering that Florida is slowly but surely going underwater it is weird to see it as the most popular destination to move to.

toomuchtodo3• 7 years ago

Lots of Florida will escape sea level rise, and the benefits (lower cost of living, no state income tax, tropic climate with no snow) can be realized immediately. You care even less if you’re a renter or >10 feet above sea level.

Migration numbers don’t lie, lots of folks love Florida, or at least like it enough to move and stay put.

glofish4• 7 years ago

Are you saying that if you are 10 ft above water you'll be fine in Florida even when areas under 10ft flood?

I really doubt that. It is not about actually losing your home, it is about quality of life, the main reason for moving there in the first place.

There will be a big cost of any flooding, borne by all Floridians

Eric_WVGG• 7 years ago

anecdotally, I only visited Florida for the first time three years ago, and have been back four or five times since. The weather is just magnificent.

I would never buy property there, but I have to talk myself out of trying to get an apartment there all the time.

snickerbockers2• 7 years ago

That's a very long-term outlook. Unless you own beachfront property, it won't be happening in your lifetime.

atombender• 7 years ago

Elsewhere in the world, it would only affect beachfront property as the coasts recede. But South Florida is literally built on water, a swiss cheese of porous carbonate rocks such as limestone. As seawater pushes through the porous rock, a process called salt-water intrusion, it dissolves the limestone — causing rampant sinkholes all over the state that already are a big problem today — and raises the water table. The Netherlands model will never work for South Florida.

rb8082• 7 years ago

To me its fascinating the growth of state's pop. TX is sucking up people so fast. NY has hardly changed in 70 years.

  State 1850 1900 1950  2020
  NY     3    7    17    19
  IL     1    4.8   8.7  13
  CA     .1   1.5  10.5  39
  TX     .2   3     8    29
  FL     .1   0.5   2.7  21

sharkmerry2• 7 years ago

According to your Numbers from 1950 to 2020, Texas only went up 3.625x.

CA went up 3.71x and Florida did 7.77x.

Definitely grew compared to New york, but hardly sucking up people so fast

rb8082• 7 years ago

You're right, just the last 10-30 years CA pop growth has stopped while TX has continued at 20%/decade.

xxpor• 7 years ago

Texas has built housing. NY essentially hasn't.

driverdan3• 7 years ago

That's not true. NY more than NYC. NYC has been building housing and the rest of the state has plenty.

jedberg6• 7 years ago

Every person I know who's left California did it because of housing costs (except for one, who did it to get away from "the damn liberal government that wants to take my guns").

We have a major housing cost crisis in this state, as well as a big NIMBY problem. There have been good solutions run up through the state house, that either fail to pass or get so watered down they are no longer effective, in large part because the most liberal parts of the state happen the also be the wealthiest, so they vote against it.

It's one of the few areas in California where the GOP and the Dems agree.

They only want to help poor people if it doesn't affect their property value.

harimau77710• 7 years ago

Did the laws have protections for the current home owners?

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that people would want to protect themselves if they don't have any assurances that developers won't just build ugly tower blocks.

On the other hand, if people are opposing development that involves real architects developing aesthetically pleasing designs that respect the existing community, then it seems reasonable to me to criticize NIMBYism.

jedberg6• 7 years ago

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that people would want to protect themselves if they don't have any assurances that developers won't just build ugly tower blocks.

If developers want to build ugly tower blocks, and people would actually buy those blocks, why stop them? Just because I bought my house ten years ago doesn't give me the right to stop someone from building something "ugly". At least, it shouldn't.

It's important to remember that just because the law says, "you can now build a thing", that doesn't mean the thing will get built. First, the current property owner has to sell, and sell at a price that it makes sense to build the ugly thing. Then a developer has to want to take the risk of building the thing.

It turns out, making it legal to build things doesn't really mean they spring up instantly. It's a slow process that takes decades to play out.

In the 70s, a section of San Francisco that was zone single family only was rezoned to dual/triple/quads-allowed. Since the 70s, only a few of the single family have been torn down and replaced with quads.

snickerbockers2• 7 years ago

No, it's reasonable to criticize them no matter what because they're preventing other people from having the same opportunities that they were afforded.

AJ007• 7 years ago

The irony of complaining about aesthetics as mentally ill people run around shouting at pedestrians and pooping on the sidewalk in mid day...

grandmczeb3• 7 years ago

The aesthetic preferences of crotchety neighbors should be close to the bottom of our housing priorities.

m_ke5• 7 years ago

All of the people I know who left NYC also left because of housing costs, even though New York has been putting up new housing at an insane rate.

https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/migration-study/

jefftk6• 7 years ago

I don't see anything in your link about NYC putting up housing at an insane rate, and my understanding had been that NYC housing growth was at historically low levels?

tmh796• 7 years ago

NY has not been putting up housing at an insane rate. Housing in NY is actually being constructed at one of the lowest rates in the last century. Adjusted for business cycles (we're in a peak now), NY is building less housing than they have build in ~100 years, and Manhattan is at its lowest density since the 1890s. The current period is only a "boom" relative to 2009-2012 when basically no new housing was constructed.

formerchamp5• 7 years ago

It doesn't help when there are insane regulations like dedicating double digit percentage of new units to be "affordable"/subsidized/section 8. Anyone with a full time minimum wage job would not qualify for "affordable" housing, you literally have to not work at all, it's such a scam.

jcims• 7 years ago

Is it housing cost or housing risk? Is one thing to put a million dollars into a home and sell it for $1.4m five years later. It’s another thing to owe s million on a place that’s now worth $400k.

wwweston3• 7 years ago

There have been good solutions run up through the state house

What are the best solutions you've seen?

They only want to help poor people if it doesn't affect their property value.

I'm sure there are some unsavory high net worth individuals who are happy to support policies keeping housing expensive just to keep assets inflated even if it means access to housing is harder for everyone.

But I'd guess for a lot of people it's more practical: when most of your net worth has become accidentally tied up in your home, some changes may mean you risk becoming one of the poor or homeless. Or visceral: you perceive risk, even though it isn't there (some folks fear a neighborhood light rail stop only to find their property values jump). Or just seeing your community change can be uncomfortable

And while I don't know if the solutions you're thinking of are of the "bring more supply online" kind... there's something weird with the issues in California if the story of net outflow is true. The fact that rents can jump over 60% in a decade while the demand pool is stable or shrinking means that this isn't an ordinary supply problem. Either the existing supply is being manipulated in some way, or some portions of the demand pool can offer a lot more than others pricing the rest out of the market. Solutions that are entirely focused on MOAR SUPPLY may be just as likely allow present dynamics to happen at a somewhat larger scale as they are to fix a macro problem.

jedberg6• 7 years ago

What are the best solutions you've seen?

SB 827 was pretty good. [0]

SB 50 was a good idea with a bad execution [1]

if the story of net outflow is true.

The article says that California still saw a net inflow due to births and incoming foreign migrants.

Either the existing supply is being manipulated in some way,

It is, via rent control, which has shown time and again to only help people who already have housing at the expense of those who don't already have it when it's enacted. It also helps wealthy people more than poor people by constraining rent raises even though they could afford market rates.

It is also manipulated by prop 13, which allows people to rent out properties they've owned for a long time at a profit when similar properties can not be. The natural market rate of rent is all inclusive of current costs including tax. But if your tax rate is artificially low, then that difference is increased profit for you, which encourages people not to sell their properties.

For example, I'd had my home for 10 years, and if I were to rent it out, my profit would be about $1,200 a month at current market rates. My property tax is artificially low by about $1,100 a month. So my entire profit would come from Prop 13. Why would I sell my house if I can rent it for profit only because of the lower tax rate?

or some portions of the demand pool can offer a lot more than others pricing the rest out of the market.

Yes, there is a lot of foreign investment in California real estate which just sits empty. I get ads from agents that "specialize in finding Chinese buyers" which is code for "people who will pay more than asking and not care what condition the house is in".

[0] https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtm...

[1] https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtm...

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

I was one of those who moved from the SFBay to Texas. Knowing that for what i'd need to save up for a down payment for a home in the bay is enough to buy a house in Texas cash was an extremely strong motivating factor.

toephu2• 7 years ago

Of course Texas has its downsides too.. the weather, the traffic (depends what city), less tech jobs to name a few?

nodesocket• 7 years ago

Also moved from SF to Nashville, TN.

Lot's of factors:

  - Cost of living  
  - Housing  
  - I am self employed (no state taxes)  
  - Attitude, entitlement, hypocrisy
  - Petty crime rampant (drug use, break ins, theft, defecation)  
  - Extreme political climate in SF/CA

oblio• 7 years ago

What does the last point mean, in practice?

JauntTrooper3• 7 years ago

We moved from San Francisco to New York City after having kids mostly due to housing and public schools.

We miss the city and our friends, but couldn't see ourselves there long term.

New York City is expensive, but there are areas of relative affordability that feel much more accessible, comfortable, and safer than the Bay Area.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

are you limited to those two cities?

smaili• 7 years ago

New York City is expensive, but there are areas of relative affordability that feel much more accessible, comfortable, and safer than the Bay Area.

Could you share which areas? I've been exploring NYC as well but have yet to stumble upon any areas that match what you described.

Daegalus2• 7 years ago

I'll chime in and say that I just moved from California to Washington in September of last year. While its not a huge change, its enough to make a difference.

Factors on why I did it:

- Housing costs #1. I got into a rent controlled 2 bedroom 1100 sqft duplex unit. It was ok, but the landlord sucked and the place was very unmaintained, and i was paying $2800 a month. No yard, no garage, tons of homeless around digging through my trash in the outskirts of Berkeley near trains and noise

- For the same price, I now live in a 2200 sq ft home with a yard, garages, in a nice area called Sammamish. In an area with lots trees, quiet, and a bit of occasional wildlife.

- Political climate was getting intense. Things were being taken to extremes, and I was honestly afraid for my safety if I accidentally interacted incorrectly with the wrong parties. Being in Berkeley didn't help, but it was most of the bay area.

- Washington is fairly liberal, but its balanced, and not extremist.

- Cost of Living in california is off the charts at this point. Between insurances, food, services, etc. things were going up and up.

- Washington has no State tax [Edit: I meant state income ta], while my pay was adjusted accordingly (i moved internally within my company as they have washington offices). I actually have more money at the end of the month. Quite a bit more. I paid down tons of debt just in the few months Ive been here. My grocery bill went down by 25%, my insurances were cut in half, Utilities are cheaper. I feel i have so much more breathing room. I have money to save, I am not living paycheck to paycheck anymore.

And to give context. I am a well paid senior software developer. I made and still make GOOD money. But my dollar goes sooooo much further up here, I am actually getting benefit from that good salary, instead of wondering where its all disappearing too and my debts not going down.

And I actually love everything else up here. I love the weather, I like rain, and the bit of snow we got just recently made me so happy. I see wildlife in my yard (deer and bobcats, and owls). Life is calmer, drivers are calmer. People actually seem like they care about their communities. My neighbors came out and said hi when we moved in and were friendly and welcoming. I didn't even know my neighbors in California.

And traffic, people are unhappy about traffic up here, and it can get almost as bad as California, but taking 30 mins to get 17 miles for work during rush hour, compared to 1-1.5hrs to go 10 miles across the bay bridge for work is vastly better.

California seems to be just unlivable if I want to work there. While I am lucky to be in a company that has good remote work culture, and so on now, most tech companies require you to live near the city the offices are in. And that affects things.

I am lucky I found a path out, and it still burned a lot of savings and bonuses to pay for the move. Even escaping was expensive.

seanmcdirmid10• 7 years ago

Washington has no State tax

Surely you mean income tax. Oregon is the state that lacks sales tax and makes up for it with an income tax.

Also, I'm not sure why your grocery bill would go down compared to California. Moving from LA to Bellevue, I noticed groceries cost more up here. Both states don't apply sales tax to groceries, at least.

It also costs a bit more to eat out here vs. LA, at least at the low end. Probably prices are cheaper in LA than the Bay Area, however.

hiram112• 7 years ago

Political climate was getting intense. Things were being taken to extremes, and I was honestly afraid for my safety if I accidentally interacted incorrectly with the wrong parties.

Can you explain this point a bit more? Are you talking about political tensions, e.g. Antifa beating you up if you dared wear a MAGA hat, or am I misunderstanding you.

lykr0n• 7 years ago

Washington is quickly turning into California in terms of politics. Lots of liberals moving in and trying to take their broken views with them.

Downtown Seattle is looking like SF/Bay Area in terms of crime and lack of police enforcement due to what/whom people vote for.

sershe• 7 years ago

I moved from SFBA (tried Mountain View, and SF in SOMA and Inner Richmond) because IMO it's not such a great place in every respect except tech jobs and maybe (compared to some places, to various degrees) weather.

The only way prices figure into the equation is the quality. It's not that I couldn't afford a house in Mountain View, it's that, jobs and prices aside, I'd need to be convinced to move to Mountain View from, say, San Antonio. And I wouldn't move there, or to SF, from Seattle or Denver if the prices were the same - based strictly on the quality of life the way I see it... On top of that, of course, the prices are not the same.

sudosteph6• 7 years ago

Native North Carolinian checking in.

I'm from Charlotte and I can honestly say that I grew up with more friends who had parents from New York than from NC. A lot of middle class people from upstate NY settled in Charlotte due to the economic opportunities and weather.

I'd wager that this migration really started about 30 years ago, and we're seeing the numbers increase even further due to network effects. For example, we've got a sizeable community of former Buffalo residents who gather over football games at restaurants that are run by other Buffalo natives.

For what it's worth, New Yorkers seem to be very culturally compatible with North Carolinians, we get along just fine. I feel like I've seen a bit less animosity for New Yorkers in NC than I saw for Californians in Seattle. There are jokes (ie, the town of Cary in the NC Triangle is sometimes said to stand for "Containment Area for Relocated Yankees"), but it never feels like genuine resentment.

I may just be biased though because buffalo-style pizza in particular has spoiled every other style of pizza for me. Please Buffalo peeps: keep coming here and sharing your food culture with us.

ardit332• 7 years ago

Upstate NY and NYC proper are very different areas (might as well be different states). Upstate NY have more in common with west MA, Vermont, NH, than with folks in the NYC area (where most of NY residents live).

The difference even more than someone from Alexandria/D.C with south VA, (e.g Danville, Roanoke, Halifax County etc...).

sudosteph6• 7 years ago

Yeah, I've noticed that as well, which is why I mentioned "upstate" specifically. We do get people from both parts, but tbh I don't think most of us NC people can tell the difference other than by food preferences and that the people from upstate tend to be more 2nd amendment. Otherwise, both seem more similar to each to other than to southerners.

But is it wrong to call people from upstate NY "New Yorkers" - or is that term only reserved for city people? If so, what are they called?

reilly30002• 7 years ago

Washingtonians (and moreso Idahoans) are particularly irate about Californians moving in, and have been for as long as I can remember. There are a lot of "salt of the earth" types who, regardless of political persuasion, see Californians representing big houses, loose morals, and heavy traffic. The Northwest ethos has been one of eclectic flavors of stoicism, serenity, and a nordic work ethic. Californians, in their eyes, bring a more chaotic, cutthroat energy.

I've lived in and love both states. Every native Californian I've met on their home turf assumes that the entire state of Washington shares the same microclimate as Seattle. Most Washintonians rarely wash their cars relative to California's sparkly standards.

All of this is of course changing as more generations co-mingle, but the lore remains.

toast03• 7 years ago

As one of the Californians moving to the PNW, I've noticed the people who most hate those darn Californians moved from California about 10-15 years ago. I've been here about 18 months, and only run into one guy who has deep roots here and was super grumpy about Californians. I'm sure it varies though depending on exactly where you are.

scruple2• 7 years ago

There were anti-Californian campaigns started in the 1970s in Oregon. SNOB (Society for the Native Oregon Born) was started in 1979. It's been going on (in the PNW) for a long time.

The Wiki article on Californication has some dates that suggest it's been a known phenomenon since the 1940s! [0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Californication_(word)

danans2• 7 years ago

see Californians representing big houses, loose morals, and heavy traffic.

I seriously doubt any place can make a defensible claim to high morals anymore, but big houses as a stereotype for California? I think that applies way more to Idaho. Space is too expensive for most people to live in big houses in CA. If anything, they go to lower population density states like TX and the South to get the bigger houses available there.

int_19h2• 7 years ago

Maybe that's what it was historically, but these days, most of the sentiment against people moving from California is because more demand raises house prices and rental costs that are already perceived as overly high, and pricing too many locals out. Cultural issues are mentioned as an afterthought, if at all.

kelnos9• 7 years ago

I find this to be a really interesting perspective. "Big houses"? Who can afford a big house in CA? "Chaotic, cutthroat energy"? I grew up on the east coast and have found CA to be much more easygoing to the point that I don't think I could go back.

I do like my loose morals, though ;)

cushychicken• 7 years ago

Please Buffalo peeps: keep coming here and sharing your food culture with us.

For a while, I would have said that they already sent you all the food culture they could. But I passed through Buffalo on a road trip a few months ago, and I gotta say, it's got a very hip vibe these days. Went to a great brewpub for dinner, and a local ice cream joint for dessert serving homemade ice cream.

They might be shipping you more food culture yet!

BoorishBears2• 7 years ago

I know a lot of these conversations are about families and older people than me, so an anecdote from the POV of a 26 year old

I just moved from Durham, NC back to New England after a year (Moved to NYC specifically, this is my first time in a truly large city)

I can't for the life of me figure out why anyone in my age group (and in tech) would want to move to Durham/Raleigh from NYC, except for raising a family

The cost of living in these places New Englanders and Californians are flooding has been shooting through the roof faster than the standard of living, which is staying steady to dropping as gentrification and population growth causes very real problems with traffic, crime, and homelessness.

Ironically, the low taxes that draw people to most of these places are a result of conservative policies, the same of which lead to limited infrastructure spending and ability to handle all this growth.

Sure I pay 40% more for less space, but I don't need a car anymore, I can still go out to nature on the weekends, I can still go out to nature on the weekends, food scene on my surrounding few blocks is equivalent to the whole of Durham (and paradoxically cheaper, CoL calculators compare things like milk and bread, but when there's a restaurant on every corner, pricing is somewhat competitive), there so many activities, the list goes on.

Also the elephant in the room for all these low COL area conversations is savings. I can save the equivalent of my entire paycheck from Durham every month, and still live off what's left when subtracted from my NYC salary.

And while it's true NYC is more expensive, there's no rule that says one day when I'm retiring and trying to live off my savings I have to live in NYC.

A dollar is a dollar. If you take a pay hit based on lower COL, you're making a long-term sacrifice based on your current situation.

ipnon• 7 years ago

90% of people become parents [0]. Raising children is difficult in a city where single people struggle.

[0] https://www.quora.com/What-percentage-of-people-become-paren...

sudosteph6• 7 years ago

I'm not a fan of Durham, but I really like downtown Raleigh. The food is good, the people are friendly, and the local music scene is surprisingly vibrant. I've met at least two young people in Raleigh who are originally from NYC, a couple from Philadelphia too who said they don't want to move back.

The things those young people seem to have in common: - Work low-skilled service industry jobs - Have involvement in the music or art scene - Are unhappy with standard of living available to them in "affordable" parts of bigger cities (ie, crime + pollution, not being able to afford a car for trips / gigging).

So that's one example of the type of young person who would prefer to move to Raleigh. I don't know if they're the type who will stay long-term, but there's definitely an appeal to a certain set of people. Highly paid techies who can work anywhere may not get much out of it. Personally, I just enjoy being here because I'm from NC and like the culture and my friends and family here. I might consider a bigger east-coast city in the future - but the west coast in general has completely lost its appeal.

tempsy• 7 years ago

I’m curious about inter-California migration as well.

I live in SF and wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of people in SF move to LA.

Personally I would be more than happy moving to San Diego. In my opinion the best city on the west coast and relatively cheap for a coastal city.

jamisteven• 7 years ago

Californians arent all moving just due to housing costs, overall cost of living there is pretty nuts and unless you work in big tech, your salary is not that great. State plus federal income tax alone was a deal breaker for me when I was there.

CamperBob2• 7 years ago

State plus federal income tax alone was a deal breaker for me when I was there.

Especially now that state income tax is no longer Federally deductible. I've found it very surprising that people on both the pro-tax and anti-tax sides don't make a bigger stink about that.

mdavidn2• 7 years ago

That and property tax on high-value housing is basically no longer deductible either.

I think Republicans backed this plan hoping it would create pressure to decrease taxes in blue states. Instead, the double taxation has only incensed taxpayers like me.

jshaqaw2• 7 years ago

Cost of living is real. Weather is real. Outside of a few highly nomadic ultra-high net worth types the tax advantages of moving states is just too trivial in absolute terms for most people to bother with. The idea that masses of people are moving for lower taxes seems like a rhetorical invention of the WSJ editorial page versus anything rooted in reality.

rayiner• 7 years ago

tax advantages of moving states is just too trivial

It’s not. For a family with $85,000 a year, getting rid of state tax could mean an extra several hundred dollars a month in income.

jayd165• 7 years ago

You'll spend the time and effort to move for a couple grand a year? Does that really make sense? How many years does it take to break even?

dragonwriter9• 7 years ago

For a family with $85,000 a year, getting rid of state tax could mean an extra several hundred dollars a month in income.

It could, if you could take the $85,000/year job with you. Pay for similar skills in the lower CoL states is also notably lower, though.

refurb2• 7 years ago

Disagree strongly on taxes. Moving from CA to WA, could save a family making $100,000 nearly $1,000 per month.

munificent• 7 years ago

ca.gov says state taxes for someone making $100k are $6,466.00. That's less than half your claim.

PopeDotNinja• 7 years ago

Yup. I just moved from CA to WA. It was like an instant ~10% raise of state taxes alone.

driverdan3• 7 years ago

CA's income tax is very high. The effective tax rate is 7%+ for most tech workers. That's a huge amount of income to give up, especially if you're comparing to a state with no or low income tax.

asdff12• 7 years ago

Should be higher imo

jayd165• 7 years ago

It doesn't need to actually be beneficial to be a reason people do it. As you can see from the replies, there's certainly a perceived benefit.

shaneprrlt• 7 years ago

Illinoisan here, have a lot of family and friends that have escaped. Escape is literally how they talk about it too. Most of the complaints I hear is about cost of living and property taxes. All the costs and taxes of a state like California, without any of the beautiful weather (except for 3 months of the year during summer). It's a big issue, and part of the reason, I believe, that they just legalized recreational cannabis.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

The main difference I see between Illinois and CA/NY is that the cost of housing is MUCH more reasonable so that the overall cost of living in the area is MUCH more reasonable.

charlesu• 7 years ago

It's not more reasonable when you consider the property taxes. A $350,000 house looks great until you factor in $10,000 annual property taxes.

gok• 7 years ago

I don't get this at all. Housing is easily half the price of California, and so is income tax.

enad2• 7 years ago

I grew up in Central California and then lived in the Bay Area from 2001 until 2010. Had kids, and a online job, so we next moved to the Sierra Nevada foothills, where we lived for a decade.

We moved to a suburb of Houston, Texas about a year ago. Best decision ever.

In a nutshell:

Overall, quality of life has gone way up.

Taxes have gone down. Wages have gone up. Everything is cheaper, which means we all get to do more fun stuff.

On the negative side of the equation: The avocados are smaller here.

aazaa• 7 years ago

Taxes have gone down.

Are the kids school age? If so, what do you think of the public schools?

enad2• 7 years ago

The schools are very good compared to what they had in California. We live in one the top 500 school districts in the country (there are about 10,000 of them).

highdesertmuse• 7 years ago

Serious question:do you still vote Democrat?

weiming• 7 years ago

Tongue-in-cheek comment that I've read somewhere is that folks flee Democrat-run cities due to high taxes and mismanagement and move elsewhere, but then continue voting Democrat to bring back the same policies they wanted to escape from.

formerchamp5• 7 years ago

Hello Californians, welcome to Texas! Please don't vote for the same policies that caused you to flee your state.

reaperducer5• 7 years ago

Serious question:do you still vote Democrat?

He said "Houston," so chances are the answer is yes.

People outside of Texas like to pretend that it's a solid red state. They conveniently don't bother to look at electoral maps and pretend that Austin doesn't exist so long as they can make jokes about where someone else lives.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

Every large city in this country is run by democrats. Texas is no different.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

My only gripe with the area is all of the flooding that happens regularly in the area and you never know when the next hurricane that is gonna extensively damage the area is going to happen.

rmason• 7 years ago

Surprised to see Michigan still on the list. Ten years ago it should have been number one. But things have gotten much better, dramatically better in the last two years.

Reports I've seen is that the state should see an increase in population in the 2020 census. Last time that happened would have been perhaps in the early nineties.

whalesalad2• 7 years ago

My wife and I moved here to California (my home state) mid-2018 from Michigan (her home state). We moved out here for a startup, but shortly after relocating the founder ran out of money and could no longer pay me. This was a huge shock because on the surface everything was fine and dandy. Got totally bamboozled.

I still remember walking into our co-working spot to pick up some mail and was told that I should leave the premisis becuase our bills were way past due and I could not have access to our mail. I was like uhh wow holy shit, he isn't paying you either. That was a surreal moment.

After the move and the shit show of the startup, our savings had basically evaporated. I had to get to work ASAP. I am very fortunate to have a support group of friends and family and was able to land a gig working on a Rails-based ecommerce site for a furniture company.

Fast forward to now and I am still a freelance consultant with usually 3-4 clients or projects happening simultaneously. I have done pretty well for myself, but the last year was one of the most stressful and chaotic years of my life. I am seriously struggling with my mental health.

Throughout the entire time we've been able to save a little more money, but all-in-all we are pissing away a tremendous amount of cash every month on our rent and other expenses that are a little higher here in CA. Moving here to Orange County was predicated on the killer salary from the new gig.

The current plan is to head back to Michigan. My wife's family is all there, so as far as a state to flee to it makes the most sense. Our rent will cut in half for what will be a far bigger property with a lot more breathing room. An idea we are tossing around is buying land and building our own home from scratch, which is something we could never even imagine doing here in California.

I think that I have a tougher time appreciating all the wonderful things our state has to offer. Having grown up here I just see all the traffic and density and lack of breathing room and want to head for the hills. It makes the higher living cost tougher to swallow. Plus, knowing we'll really never be able to afford the kind of property and home that we know we can have over in Michigan, it makes sense to get out of here without planting deep roots again.

JMTQp8lwXL• 7 years ago

I am curious what a "killer salary" looks like in Orange County, compared to LA and SFBA (assuming it's a tech job).

whalesalad2• 7 years ago

The base was 230k which in retrospective is not really killer for this area. In hindsight I should have known that this was an unreasonable salary for the size of the company and its stage, and so it was kind of a red herring.

Suffice to say I won't ever make this mistake again.

d1zzy2• 7 years ago

Having grown up here I just see all the traffic and density and lack of breathing room and want to head for the hills.

And that's why so many people live in those WUI areas (wildland-urban interface) which is one of the factors why the amount of property damage (and human lives) has increased from fire risk over the years.

starpilot• 7 years ago

An idea we are tossing around is buying land and building our own home from scratch, which is something we could never even imagine doing here in California

Doable in places like Joshua Tree or Quincy (NorCal).

asdff12• 7 years ago

There are empty lots for sale even in dense parts of LA.

jdhn3• 7 years ago

Where in Michigan are you going to be moving back to? Ann Arbor has gotten more expensive since 2018, although you probably won't have a problem affording an apartment even in downtown since you work in tech.

Royalaid• 7 years ago

I went through something that rhymes with what you went through. My wife got in USC and I found a job in Irivine. We moved here and things were okay for a while, about 2 years, and then the job was gone. That was a very stressful 4 months. We stuck it out, I commuted to Santa Monica from Irvine everyday ( 6 hour commute by train). Then I eventually found the gig I am at now and have been for the past two years. We go back every Christmas and 4th of July to visit our family's but I have to say everytime I land back at SNA I feel so much relief I am back in CA.

Just my two cents.

kbradero• 7 years ago

Detroit. Best place ever.

OrgNet• 7 years ago

free homes? (if you don't count the tear-down costs)

slg• 7 years ago

Ignoring the age of people in this data seems like a mistake. Considering the age of boomers and the states this article says people are moving to, I would venture a guess that recent retirees make up decent percentage of the people moving. Two 30 year olds moving from California to Nevada so they can afford to raise a family is saying something fundamentally different and in my opinion more important than two 65 year olds moving from New York to retire in Florida.

52-6F-622• 7 years ago

Come to Canada >:] We could use some denser populations to provide a larger tax base and to promote inter-city transit infrastructure.

downerending• 7 years ago

Sadly, Canada won't let you in unless you're young or rich.

52-6F-622• 7 years ago

Honestly was being half tongue in cheek, but your comment made me look it up because I never have.

It sounds like we have a program similar to the USA’s TN Visa program:

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/se...

FWIW, it can be expensive here, but Amazon and others are hiring like stink.

Keverw3• 7 years ago

Ohio is losing people too, called brain drain. Was reading that a senate report said Ohio's best and brightest are leaving, especially the more educated. I could see how moving to Texas or Florida would be appealing, warmer so no winter blues, friendlier to businesses, less taxes and simpler tax structures and some cities have more tech than others too such as Austin. I know Michigan is in a similar situation too with losing people.

I know after the 2020 census Ohio is predicted to lose at least 1 house seat and lose some of the federal funds. Looks like Ohio is attracting more immigrants from other countries, than people from other states.

Really think it's a shame tech is so centralized in a handful of cities, but I do see things like warm weather and walkability attracting people. I'd love to live somewhere where I wouldn't be far from my office, places to eat and shop without needing a car. I figured maybe around where the domain in Austin would be a cool place to live maybe. Seems like it's cheap to live in Ohio but not much to do other than drinking, playing video games, bowling or doing drugs (Dayton was ranked top city for heroin overdoses) and not that many jobs in tech, and then even huge loss in manufacturing too.

I know people say Austin is the next Silicon Valley, but I feel like the cost of living for housing keeps going up, so sounds like going to have similar problems as in California. I'm surprised tech companies don't invest big in the midwest, Google could probably buy an entire city if they wanted to but not sure if they'd attract a lot of workers. But it's interesting to watch migration patterns, I guess tech is the new gold rush. Seems like sometimes you have to vote with your feet.

I was thinking Utah would be a nice place to live since the mountains are pretty, and was surprised to learn they have only a flat 5% tax rate, and no city income taxes either as I thought every state also had cities taxing people. While Ohio you have state, city, school district(some are done based on income as a %, while other districts use property taxes), and then if you own a business or self employed making enough (maybe you're a lawyer who decided to work independently grossing enough to qualify for paying it) there's a business activity tax. So I think a simpler tax structure would be nice. I kinda feel there should just be one tax only to simplify things, and let the cities or states argue over who gets what. Then some tax software won't even help with city taxes, I think Michigan that's the case since cities haven't standardized on things, I know there was a proposal in Ohio for the state to collect city taxes on the city behalf and redistribute them to the cities while charging the cities a service fee but the cities didn't like that idea. I know some cities go as high as 2.5% percent, I think it's a little insane some cities with less population and square miles of Utah needs to collect half of what the entire state of Utah collects, makes me feel like there's a lot of waste or people are paid too highly working for the city.

lotsofpulp10• 7 years ago

> I'm surprised tech companies don't invest big in the midwest,

You already answered your own question:

I could see how moving to Texas or Florida would be appealing, warmer so no winter blues, friendlier to businesses, less taxes and simpler tax structures and some cities have more tech than others too such as Austin.
I do see things like warm weather and walkability attracting people.

People look for cheap when they can’t afford something. People in tech right now can afford to buy what they want, they don’t need cheap.

Glyptodon• 7 years ago

I find it interesting that Illinois and New York's leavers seem to have much more income banding with respect to destinations than California's, which in turn seems to at least partially be related to Californians not going to Florida.

My first instinct is to assume that well-off-ish retirees in Illinois and New York retire to Florida, while in California they just stay in California. (Though other possibilities exist: for example, California leavers could be in two groups for most of the exit states, and so happen to average incomes out more than for Illinois or New York.)

I also find it interesting that the income-destination pairs of leavers for those two states seems like they might indicate potential easy presumptions about general political and socioeconomic status compared to California. Curious if there's actual data backing supporting these obvious presumptions.

formerchamp5• 7 years ago

SF and NYC in a nutshell: High taxes to fund entitlement programs like "affordable housing" and the homeless industrious complex, high regulations that only allow mega corps to succeed, landlord unfriendly laws so no chances taken on good borderline tenants, and no firearms for law abiding citizens so criminals are emboldened.

untog• 7 years ago

On the flip side: high taxes means access to things like public transportation, meaning that you don't need to own and maintain a car. And crime rates in NYC, at least, are at absolute historic lows. The firearms part of your statement really makes no sense at all.

Some other pluses: a huge concentration of culture, entertainment, dining. Regional transportation hubs to travel to other cities is relatively quick.

newfangle3• 7 years ago

This is hilarious, yeah in SF the 55 percent taxes i pay really do provide me great public transportation

iron0013• 7 years ago

One thing I’ve noticed is that expatriates from blue states tend to bring their politics with them when they move. Denver’s influx of out-of-staters was a big part of why Colorado moved from purple to solid blue, and now the same thing is happening in TX as folks flock to Austin and Houston, GA as the black diaspora returns to Atlanta, and NC as the Research Triangle booms. Heck, even Utah’s starting to look more purplish thanks to its tech industry (and the CA imports that inevitably come along with it). It’s going to be exciting to see what happens when Texas reaches its tipping point.

chiph• 7 years ago

If you want to explore this exodus yourself, one of the things you can do is use the uhaul.com website. They have dynamic pricing based on availability and demand. At the current time, renting a 26' truck to move one-way from Mountain View CA to Dallas TX will cost you $4,230. But driving the opposite direction will only cost you $846.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

At those prices one is better off just buying a trailer and keeping it.

kelnos9• 7 years ago

Hell, I wonder if you could buy a used 26' truck in Mountain View, do the move, and sell it in Dallas for more than $4,230 less than you paid for it.

dragonwriter9• 7 years ago

New York, California and Illinois have been hemorrhaging residents.

Well, no. At least California (about which I see a lot of these stories) is gaining residents. Yes, it has negative net interstate migration. But it has both positive net natural population growth and positive net total migration, because the positive net international migration more than offsets negative net interstate migration.

alecco• 7 years ago

So, white flight?

dragonwriter9• 7 years ago

So, white flight?

Given the racial dynamics of wealth and the fact that the interstate inmigration is wealthy and the interstate outmigration is less wealthy, probably not “white flight” as that is usually conceived.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

Look at cheap states with no state income Tax. The states without income tax are Texas, Washington, Tennessee, South Dakota, Alaska, Nevada, and Florida. Find the one which most fits what you are looking for in a place to live and give it a whirl.

misiti3780• 7 years ago

I live in NYC now but I dont know how long I will stay here. You cant really buy an apartment for < 1MM and the taxes are out of control. NY State has to be one of the worst states to live in right now. NYC even has a mansion tax on any house purchased over 1MM dollars, and manhattan has a huge amount of empty high end condos now because no one wants to buy them

iancmceachern• 7 years ago

I think it comes down to one's priorities in life. I would rather rent somewhere that I want to live that has the activities and culture I enjoy than own a big house where I dont want to live that doesn't have those things.

newfangle3• 7 years ago

And this sucks for the rest of the country because these people have no sepf awareness and will vote for the same dumb policies that screwed up their original homes.

kull• 7 years ago

Go Austin!

dkwod0239032• 7 years ago

Bay Area native here. The cost of living here has always been high, there have always been a lot of homeless people, and crime used to be worse.

The tech industry has metastasized, overthrown the culture, and drained the soul out of the place. The ethos and pathos of the tech industry have undergone a transformation from creation to extraction. We shot for the moon and got surveillance capitalism and the "gig economy" instead.

Now everybody here is "the right type of people". You can be whoever you want, so long as it's sustainable and organic.

GhettoChild17• 7 years ago

so many catchphrases and clichés in this post.

dkwod0239032• 7 years ago

You hit it on the nose GhettoChild

atomi3• 7 years ago

I wouldn't leave California for a million dollars. To quote a famous Californian, "I'd rather be dead in California than alive in Arizona."

filoleg• 7 years ago

Good for you, I totally respect that. Which, unfortunately, isn't something I am able to say about a lot of Californian expats.

atomi3• 7 years ago

A lot of "Californians" are transplants or foreign born. Many of those are also conservative and don't mind moving to more conservative states.

Native born are typically more loyal.

dang3• 7 years ago

Please don't take HN threads further into regional flamewar (or any flamewar).

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

kortilla8• 7 years ago

I’m sure there are lots of people in Arizona that would love for you to die there as well.

I’m honestly surprised that so many “forward thinking” people can spout off such nationalist bullshit with a straight face.

cyphar• 7 years ago

It's a reference to Arrested Development. There's also no need to take it personally -- not to mention that both Arizona and California are in the same country (thus making it by definition not nationalistic to say you prefer one to the other).

dang3• 7 years ago

Please don't take HN threads further into regional flamewar (or any flamewar).

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

prestonh• 7 years ago

I got that reference.

smsm423• 7 years ago

I probably would. Too bad nobody is giving me a million dollars for that. Except for the weather (which is admittedly pretty nice) and salaries (which are admittedly very juicy even after adjusting for cost of living) I am not entirely sure why California is so much better than other places. I mean, San Francisco has a lot of nice stuff there, but other places do too, and they don't have today's SF downsides... So I am not sure why.

dang3• 7 years ago

Please don't post regional flamebait to HN. It leads to regional flamewar, which we don't want here.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

twodave• 7 years ago

If I’m honest, as a young professional from Florida I always envied those able to uproot and move to the west coast. My whole family (both mine and my wife’s) is here on the east coast, and I spent a lot of years somewhat resentful of the missed opportunities.

Today, at the age of 35, my position has completely reversed. If anything, with the advent of the remote workplace, I’d rather be in a low cost area such as the one I live in, and the “opportunities” I’m missing out on these days just don’t seem so attractive anymore.

zelly• 7 years ago

You can do software anywhere you can get a network connection, but if VCs aren't there, then you don't get a job. VCs have to be the first movers on this. So I have a suggestion for any of you reading.

A major reason for SV being where it is, is the climate. A number of studies have been done on this. The best place for high-quality entrepreneurship and general civilization-building is a Mediterranean climate. The Bay is not the only place with this property. Most of coastal California has the same climate. So why don't some VCs move to other places? How about Monterey? Orange County?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_climate

tqi• 7 years ago

I wonder if there has been an increase in cases of families splitting up, with one (or both) parents living cheaply in high cost / high income areas and sending money back to families in lower cost / lower income areas?

make3• 7 years ago

Come to Montreal

someonehere• 7 years ago

California my whole life. I live in SF. Considering moving to Washington. I can live on the west side of Puget Sound and take an express ferry across the Sound and get to downtown Seattle for work. What a condo goes for in SF you can get a beach front house with some land. I once saw a property on one of the islands with a dozen acres for less than a million. Farm house on it and it’s still commutable to downtown Seattle via the ferry.

tidology• 7 years ago

Besides the usual issues with SF, Bay Area .. really California: homeless, cost of living, fires (health), earthquake one of the most concerning aspect for me are taxes! You pay tons of state taxes to get pretty much nothing in return.

I and my wife have 2 years of run away. Wait for my kid to finish the pre-school cycle, after which we are out of here.

We have already begun to look into alternatives and evaluating pro/cons and yes Texas comes as one of the top choices along with Colorado.

tropo2• 7 years ago

So... are you going to vote like a Californian, ruining those states, and then look for a new state? People sort of end up with the government they deserve, even if they don't like the result.

California would be great if it were filled with a mix of people from Texas, Wyoming, Oklahoma, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida, Iowa, Idaho, and Kentucky. The laws would be very different. There would be much more freedom, including lower taxes.

unixhero• 7 years ago

As an European, what's the difficulty to get a citizenship for the US in 2020?

tropo2• 7 years ago

The situation is really only difficult for a handful of countries with very high migration. You aren't in China, India, or similar. It ought to be pretty easy for you.

Note that this is based on birth country, not your current country.

imroot2• 7 years ago

Florida's upsides: No Sales Tax. If you're not looking for waterfront, housing is super affordable. Amazing place if you're single.

Florida's Downsides: Homeless are more aggressive than in SF. Florida Man. Frequently 10% sales tax in most places due to lack of income tax. Higher property taxes if you're in a really progressive area. You're swapping out earthquakes for hurricanes. A lot of "Keeping up with the Jones'" mentality here. Not a great place for tech.

nmfisher• 7 years ago

I'm still trying to understand how it all works in the USA, so please bear with me. What do you mean by "No Sales Tax", then go on to say "Frequently 10% sales tax"?

oplav• 7 years ago

I think they probably mean no income tax.

souprock• 7 years ago

Clearly that is wrong. There is no income tax.

The sales tax is 6% to the state, and counties can increase it for their own purposes, up to a maximum of 8%. The average is 6.65%. At certain times in summer, school supplies and hurricane supplies are 0%. Grocery items are 0%.

205guy2• 7 years ago

There is something about California that really brings out the whining and hypocrisy in conservatives. They want to move there for the big bucks in tech, but they don't want to be a minority party/culture. CA has lots of problems, but when I hear "housing is too expensive, lots of homelessness and petty crime, AND it's so liberal that they just can't fix anything," I know the last one is the key. They complain about the NIMBYs who keep real-estate prices high (as if that were the only thing), complain that no one is building denser housing, then leave and move to sprawling suburbia with it's HOAs and de-facto segregated zoning. Go try to build a 4-plex in your new neighborhood, then get back to us.

Cue all the complaints about the entrenched residents in their Prop 13 homes or rent-controlled units, building permits and red tape nightmares. Yes, there is a problem. You not making it and having to move away (after moving there 2 or 3 years ago) is not the problem. Look at it this way, the system is working for 80-90% of the long-term residents, and they're aware of the hardships for the disadvantaged among them. Why should they go out of their way to accomodate conservatives who want to undermine their tax-and-spend heaven?

As for the Democrats who leave CA and vote Democrat elsewhere, why not? They didn't get in early enough on this wealth train (OK, jokes about CAHSR will be tolerated), so they're going somewhere else, and trying to get it started there. CA is defined by excess of liberal values, elswhere by lack, so they're just trying to bring some moderation. They won't be very successful, and I will tell them not to go whining about the conservative values in their new home, so there.

California just is. It's the world's 4th largest economy by itself. For good or ill, it's home to so many internet companies (and other industries) that have made so much money in the internet revolution that it has skewed its cost-of-living and real-estate markets off the charts. It has made many of its residents fabulously weathly, both in relative and absolute terms, and they want to stay and enjoy it mostly the way it is. In SF/SV, it has redefined middle-class at around 300K combined income, and that money (at least what's not dedicated to housing) drives a lot of other sectors (public transit, restaurants, and other quality-of-life businesses). Yeah, I know, all those have issues and/or are overpriced, no need to comment to say that. It also leans very liberal in the coastal cities, meaning tolerance, compassion, social justice, sanctuary, etc. It seems like they still have a democracy, and since they're still the majority, they get to keep experimenting. It's not going anywhere, and it's not going to change much, and certainly not because of the whining. Deal with it.

agensaequivocum2• 7 years ago

Having left Orange County California for Phoenix Arizona in early 2019, I definitely plan on staying. We can easily afford a house, the community here is unbelievably better (many young large families, an amazing Diocese), lower income and property taxes, cheaper gas, constitutional carry. Sure it may get a little hot in the summer but you can easily drive up to Flagstaff to escape the heat, and, in the winter, go skiing for much cheaper than Big Bear.

dmode4• 7 years ago

Having lived in Arizona for 3 years, IMO, it is one of the worst places to live in the US

agensaequivocum2• 7 years ago

Why?

peignoir• 7 years ago

I did move to Puerto Rico, there is a small and growing tech ecosystem there and growing. A lot of tax incentive and flights to Miami and nyc are cheap. Rents are cheap and this is a good deal for remote workers

Jemm• 7 years ago

Judging by the influx of tech companies , Toronto seems to be a popular destination for Americans.

Goodbye, New York, California and Illinois – Hello where?

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