Is Windows Phone Dead?

https://www.thurrott.com/mobile/windows-phone/4512/analysis-microsoft-is-scaling-back-on-windows-phone-dramatically

by insulanian • 11 years ago

54 84 11 years ago

I wonder how the developers feel that invested in that platform?

grabcocque• 11 years ago

The fact that developers aren't invested in the platform is a big part of why it's living on borrowed time. They can't even get Microsoft developers invested in it; they'd rather develop for iOS first and then Android.

Joeri4• 11 years ago

I would say that microsoft supporting iOS and android much better than windows phone is the clearest signal to developers to stay away from windows phone. It's not just windows phone though. They've released office integration for WatchOS, but not for microsoft band. That's what happens when a company transitions from being a platform to being a set of apps and services.

batou4• 11 years ago

I feel pretty fucked off as a user. I wouldn't invest in developing for it or universal apps for desktop either. Too many scars is the problem. Plus I no longer want to be a sharecropper.

I'm waiting for this handset to be paid off and grabbing a cheap android (Moto G or something)

Edit: Actually sod it I'm going to buy a dumbphone. I just did a 30 second reflection on my mobile device experience over the last decade and it hasn't even touched circa 1998 desktop software yet. I've had every platform and its just a cash sink and privacy nightmare.

Edit 2: Rereading the article actually hs killed the handset for me. I know with stuff like this on the table in the near future my handset is going to be worth nothing so I just did a BIN on the last dumbphone I had on ebay (Nokia 3510i) and will shift this quickly before it depreciates to nothing.

rwmj• 11 years ago

They should have seen this coming. It's no surprise to anyone that Windows Phone has been a catastrophe with a miniscule audience, for over a decade (if you count all the MSFT phone OSes like Wince).

Also any half-decent mobile phone developer should know two, maybe three platforms to reach a decent sized audience.

tobltobs3• 11 years ago

One of the problems is which platform do you mean? Windows mobile, Windows phone, Phone Silverlight, WinRT, Universal apps, Windows Desktop or Windows 10?

Nilzor• 11 years ago

Fucked, fucked, fucked, fucked, fucked, not quite fucked aaand not yet fucked

Joeri4• 11 years ago

The problem is that there's been no gold rush to reach critical mass. There aren't enough apps to draw in users, and there aren't enough users to sustain apps (as a business). The apps which are there are lower quality and miss features, with few updates and getting fewer.

I get that MS is in a tough spot. They need the apps to gain traction, but they need traction to get apps. If they'd been faster out of the gate catching up with iphone the market might have split threeways, but by now it's an entrenched duopoly and no new entrant can make a difference. I still think windows phone is better phone OS than iOS or android, but at this point the quality doesn't matter. See also: webOS, FirefoxOS.

Long story short, i think MS is doing everything they can to make the platform work for developers (excellent tools, easy porting from iOS and android, universal apps), but it's just too late. They were there before iphone (windows mobile), but they didn't innovate fast enough when the iphone happened, and now it's too late.

Touche• 11 years ago

There aren't enough apps to draw in users, and there aren't enough users to sustain apps (as a business).

All evidence suggests that apps do not influence which phone a user buys. Users install less than 1 app per month. Windows Phone is unsuccessful for other reasons.

pjmlp• 11 years ago

The transition from Silverlight/XNA to WinRT pissed many developers, specially since WP 8 forced everyone into asynchronous programming model, with no consistent APIs between mobile and store models.

WP 8.1 improved the situation with the shared code and PCLs, but it still required two code bases for the UI.

Also forcing everyone to write code for handling application state that should be part of WinRT didn't help.

On my case, I got a Lumia 630 to play around with C++/CX, thinking about the good old C++ Builder days, but even with WP 8.1 UAP, one gets fed up to write something multiple times for the same OS.

ct• 11 years ago

The main problem IMO was the Metro UI which while different from other mobile OSes was too different. It was too cold and futuristic. Games on the platform run really slow compared to other mobile platforms. And games are the number one apps that is carrying iOS.

eibrahim• 11 years ago

I made 5 apps early on and 6 months into it I realized there was no money in it. The dev tools and environment is probably the best in mobile development. It's unfortunate they can't break through.

tobltobs3• 11 years ago

My experience is just the other way round. There is some easy money if you also develop an universal app for the non phone as store. But the winrt environment is much to limited and the the dev environment is not competetive. It blows my mind how hard MS is failing in the phone market the last few years.

beagle3• 11 years ago

I think it is fortunate for the rest of the world that they can't break through. The reason Microsoft is behaving reasonably lately is exactly because they've been having problems breaking through - in fact, staying relevant - in the modern age.

jmkni• 11 years ago

I agree with you on the dev tools.

That's why I would like Xamarin Forms to improve, it uses the same XAML/MVVM/C# setup that Windows Phone does, and is a joy to work with. It's just very limited at the moment.

frik4• 11 years ago

Visual Studio is good, but why does MS stick to the XML and GUIDs. e.g. XAML in WPF/Silverlight/WinPhone/WinRuntime/UnversalApp has a charm from 2005 and feels outdated. It's also used in SharePoint as data format. Reminds me of OLE2 and it's com siblings.

bitmapbrother3• 11 years ago

dev tools and environment is probably the best in mobile development.

I installed the latest Visual Studio. I think it installed about 30 applications and sprayed over 15GB of files all over my HDD. That's a pretty nasty environment. I'd rather use Android Studio from IntelliJ.

puranjay3• 11 years ago

Windows is dying. Not just the phone. Sorry, there really is no two ways about it. This little engine can chug itself over the hill for the next few years, but it's all downhill from there.

I use a Windows desktop and I constantly find myself wondering: "what am I paying MS for?". I personally like to use Word (even though it's too bloated for my needs), but clients ask for work to be in Google Docs so they can share and comment better.

My Windows experience is now largely limited to opening Chrome and doing virtually everything in it. I might open up Notepad from time to time to make a quick few notes. But that's mostly out of habit, not necessity.

Don't say "but I code on it". If you're a coder, you're already a specialized use case.

The majority of the world simply doesn't need a bloated Windows OS to run their browsers.

I'd be shorting Microsoft if I were an investor.

P.S.: I was also an early Windows Phone user because I loved the UI (still the best in the business IMO). I dumped the phone after 1 year when it constantly crashed on me (Nokia Lumia 720), had terrible apps, and didn't have half the features of my friends' iPhones and Androids. It got a notification center just about two years ago. And I still can't find apps on the marketplace that aren't cheap clones.

batou4• 11 years ago

I couldn't agree more. I'm sitting here on a Windows desktop at the moment and have a windows phone. See elsewhere in this thread for the fate of the phone. It's being replaced with a dumbphone.

As for the desktop, I've got the following things open on it: firefox, thunderbird, PuTTY, Libreoffice Sheet, KeepassX, vim and virtualbox running Debian.

Even my day job which is slaving for a Microsoft partner is moving away from their stuff. We're already on VMware ESX rather than Hyper-V, we're moving to AWS, adopting node.js and we already have a pile of Linux infrastructure floating around. A few years ago it was just propping us up but now it's actually delivering the core value for the company. We're also dumping Office 365 after only a year of subscriptions because it's a pile of shit (forefront letting stuff through, outlook sync is incredibly unreliable and the disaster that is Lync) and the euro position means a price rise. Plus over time, a VLK office license works out cheaper. But then again, do you need Office? Not really.

And the final killer: we're getting completely gouged over and over again. Every time someone writes of several billion on shit investments, us enterprise customers get shafted to make up the numbers. Our SQL 2014 upgrade was stupid amounts of pain and money, so we're looking elsewhere. Postgresql is already on the cards to replace a chunk of our Web API service back ends, then they move to node, then they move to Linux.

So when they "listen to the customer" what do we get? We get a pay pay pay app ecosystem that they fucked up the first time and the second time looks like a disaster, a bunch of cloud services that are completely non portable, a pile of devices which we no longer control and a bunch of backpedalling over their previous "open source is evil" attitude.

There's just no reason now. They're a total fuck up of a company.

jvehent2• 11 years ago

Microsoft was never a web stack company and always did a poor job at it. Their real power is in the Active Directory. It's very hard to find any decent alternative to that (and no, OpenLDAP isn't the same).

kogepathic• 11 years ago

We're also dumping Office 365 after only a year of subscriptions because it's a pile of shit (forefront letting stuff through, outlook sync is incredibly unreliable and the disaster that is Lync) and the euro position means a price rise.

What are you switching to? We just decided to go with Office 365 because it provided a much nicer interface for our users than Roundcube/Squirrelmail/etc.

I do have some minor complaints, there have been a few times that they are slow to send or receive emails (like hours slow) but overall it works quite well.

Google Apps is out because the company doesn't trust Google, so what are the alternatives for a mail service with a great web interface?

Paul_S• 11 years ago

Don't say "but I code on it". If you're a coder, you're already a specialized use case.

Unless you're a microsoft shop that's not necessarily the case. We have windows boxes which are only there so we can compile for MS targets. If there was a way to cross-compile we wouldn't need them. As it is we manage to survive in a bubble created by cygwin. I think marketing uses windows boxes though.

programmernews33• 11 years ago

Debian has Windows cross-compilers. You can even build Windows installers without leaving Linux, using NSIS.

programmernews33• 11 years ago

Debian has Windows cross-compilers. You can even build Windows installers without leaving Linux, using NSIS. You could even test under Wine, that probably doesn't cut it though.

legulere• 11 years ago

The feature of Windows is that it still has tons of business software which is in the situation of a vendor lock-in because it heavily relies on Windows only APIs

yulaow• 11 years ago

Business and Games. Even if Steam is doing whatever it can to bring games to Linux, AAA games are still all only on Windows and the whole community just use it. If you want a pc for gaming with your friend you will use the latest windows version, period.

Also, because of this, the gpu driver situation is still very unfair, performance related, if we compare windows drivers to linux drivers. Maybe only Intel give both of them the same attention

jvehent2• 11 years ago

Windows is dying.

No. It is not. Windows still sells millions of computers and everyone uses it, from households to corporations. It's here to stay for a very long time.

carlosrg• 11 years ago

Yep. A lot of people here have trouble discerning between their _own_ personal experience and the needs of the rest of the world. I don't even use Windows, but I know plenty of people using it, and I don't see them either spending money on a Mac or switching to a tablet or a Chromebook. And I don't see many workplaces switching to Chromebooks either.

Microsoft has built a good and cheap platform for workplaces PCs and households, that's the reality. The only two real alternatives I can see right now are OS X and some well supported GNU/Linux distros like Ubuntu/Red Hat/Suse, and both have their own disadvantages (the former a significant higher cost in hardware, the latter a lack of commonly used pro software like MS Office, Adobe programs, AutoCAD and other specialized software...)

shadowmint3• 11 years ago

'Dying' is not 'Dead'. Not yet... but desktop sales are in decline(1), and windows on mobile is a failure.

If you want to call it 'Windows is in decline' instead of 'Windows is dying', sure, we can call it that instead.

...but it's effectively the same thing. Don't bet on this platform; it's not the future. Sure, it'll still be around for the foreseeable future, but you win when you bet on things that experience year-over-year growth, not year-over-year decline.

You can call the growth-hackers nasty names if you want, but its undeniable that there's a strong correlation between growth and success.

My bet? Microsoft won't fail. They'll find other things (services in the cloud perhaps) to grow; but windows will consistently decline over time while it fails to gain traction in the mobile space. /shrug

(1) http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/3026217 "Gartner Says Worldwide PC Shipments Declined 5.2 Percent in First Quarter of 2015"

puranjay3• 11 years ago

The direction of the trend is downward. It is going to happen. It's only a matter of time.

learnstats2• 11 years ago

Unless they are prepared to invest in an Apple Mac, there is no conceivable alternative for middle of the bell-curve consumers.

People have moved what services they can over to mobile and tablet computers, but offline word processing and full-screen browsing are not going away.

People do identify software and hardware problems when using Windows, but never phrase or recognise them as an Operating System problem or as a criticism of Windows. "Why doesn't X make more effort to work with Windows?" is about as close as you'll get.

7952• 11 years ago

The majority of the world simply doesn't need a bloated Windows OS to run their browsers.

I am not sure that is limited to Windows exactly, but could be applied to almost any desktop OS. There is plenty of excellent native software on desktop machines that are streaks ahead of anything in a web app. But the problem is that they are difficult to find and install.

I would be hesitant to recommend Paint.net to a non-technical user because they would probably end up installing malware by accident. So I suggest they buy a tablet, or use a web app; but neither products are actually better. The user ends up with an inferior product that gives them less freedom, and subjects them to the indignity of app stores and monthly subscriptions.

Egregore• 11 years ago

I agree with you, because we have similar use cases, but desktop gaming is still almost totally windows dependent. So I think games will keep Windows afloat for a while.

frik4• 11 years ago

Microsoft's plan Office365 and Windows 10 as a subscription service won't help to increase their market share. Android and iOS and OSX are very popular these days and huge competitors.

In the long run subscription fees are higher for end users and business than traditional software - just compare Office365 and Adobe Creative Suite 6 to Office 2013 and Creative Suite 5 over a common 3+ year lifecycle.

Microsoft's transforms Windows to Windows as a subscription service, similar to Adobe's Creative Suite 6. Only the "Windows 10 LTSB" edition (Long Term Servicing Branch) is similar to what we got with Windows up to version 8, the other editions cannot deactivate the automatic feature upgrades. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev... and https://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/jj612867.aspx?lc...

Joeri4• 11 years ago

Microsoft is not transitioning windows to a subscription service. They're transitioning to the same model as iOS: you buy the OS with the device, and you get updates for the lifetime of that device, but you cannot cherrypick the updates, it's all or nothing.

CrLf• 11 years ago

It's interesting how little talk there is about it, and I'm not exactly sure how Microsoft believes it to be a good thing.

I've been an Office (for Mac) buyer for the last few versions but the new pricing for Office 2015 is making think twice about continuing this practice. AFAIK, the 3-licenses pack has been abandoned and a single license will be in the same price range.

Subscription pricing is indeed not much cheaper (if at all) and give that feeling you're regularly paying for something you rarely use. And outside of corporate environments, I don't know anyone who uses Office apps more than just occasionally.

If Microsoft is trying to make its users look for alternatives, they might just succeed...

funkyy• 11 years ago

Only because you or your work colleagues do not use Windows much, it does not mean majority of non-technical people do the same. Almost all non-technical people using Windows that I know would not take a step and move to Google docs etc mostly because they dont trust it, they do not know how it works and because it forces them to be connected to the internet to open up all the possibilities. There is a long way before Windows will fade away in Europe.

Grazester• 11 years ago

Windows is bloated compared to what? Mac OS? The newer Mac OS updates is what seems bloated to me. Ubuntu since Unity seemed bloated to me also and that's why I now use Kubuntu(which is far from the perfect desktop OS).

sleepychu• 11 years ago

Arguably you don't need a desktop environment at all! (I certainly do my best to avoid one)

You've identified a key issue though which if that Unity sucks and on the verge of PC users as a whole considering Linux distributions as a contender in a 3-way choice Ubuntu is rapidly becoming equal to Linux in the public eye. Not sure what we can do about it though.

nivla3• 11 years ago

I use a Windows desktop and I constantly find myself wondering: "what am I paying MS for?".

Pretty much the same thing what most average Joes pay for: "convenience of familiarity" and "support". Averaged, most people around the world grew up with Windows. Heck even in third world countries and remotest part of the world, people are more familiar with Windows (a commercial product) than Linux (a zero cost free product). Windows given its monopoly also has a better support for programs and drivers. Keep in mind people do tend to look at desktop the same way you look at mobile: "Windows phone - had terrible apps, and didn't have half the features of my friends' iPhones and Androids."

There is also another thing, the true cost of Windows is hidden within the price of the hardware. When you purchase a laptop or commercial desktop, you dont pickup a cd for Windows or pay for it separately at the checkout. Thus for most people Windows is technically "free".

Sure I can install Linux on my gf's computer but most likely she wouldn't let me since its not worth her time to relearn an entire new operating system. It is the same argument with console gaming vs pc gaming. For some people, even if it means missing out on a better gaming experience, they just want to sit down and not fiddle with things. And that is with my gf who is my generation, I can't even begin to imagine the horror of installing a different OS for my parents and constantly being phoned to walk them through trivial tasks.

I dumped the phone after 1 year when it constantly crashed on me (Nokia Lumia 720),

I had quiet the opposite experience, Windows phone seemed to crash the least on me. I found it to be more fluid OS than anything else I have tried.

mark_l_watson• 11 years ago

I bought a really cheap Windows 8.1 laptop early this year (HP Stream 11) and I was actually surprised how nice it was, especially considering the price. However I sort of agree with you: I just run Chrome, IntelliJ (runs a little slow, but OK), and github's tools - really nothing else. After using the Stream 11 for several months, I decided that really just a browser on a secure platform would meet much of my needs so I bought a Toshiba Chromebook 2 and I am surprised how useful it is. I still use one of my other laptops for using IntelliJ, but the combination of nitrous.io, and Chrome shell to my own servers (with a nice emacs setup for Haskell and Clojure) makes even the Chromebook a good development computer. This is especially true when I am SSHing into a server much more powerful than than my MacBook or Linux laptops. I write a lot, and even my writing work flow is all web based, so no need for a heavy weight OS for that.

When you need it, Windows, OS X, or Linux is great, but for a lot of work (and play), something like a Chromebook or an iPad meets a lot of needs, and I would argue more securely.

peter303• 11 years ago

There are things you can do on a couple square feet of screen and keyboard you can't do a dozen square inches of mobile screen, like create good content. There will always be a need of an OS that can manage this.

melling• 11 years ago

Yes, I believe Windows usage has fallen to just under 9 out of 10 desktop computers.

Oh, the people use mobile argument...right. Great consumption devices. Love my iPad...still need a desktop.

Basically, until something comes along to fill the void where 80% of people just want a cheap desktop, and not a premium brand, I think Windows won't be classified as dying.

Should we discuss the computer that people use when they show up at work. Nah. Surely you understand by now.

bitmapbrother3• 11 years ago

Yes, lets discuss that nasty grey box that the majority of people are forced to use at work. As for Windows dying, well, desktops declined 10% this quarter so give it some time. It'll be a slow death for Windows, but it's coming.

WorldWideWayne5• 11 years ago

Applying your logic: OS X and iOS are dying too...because I personally avoid them like the plague.

Back in reality, the majority of businesses need Windows for their operations because a sorely limited mobile or Apple OS just doesn't cut it.

coldtea5• 11 years ago

Windows is dying. Not just the phone. Sorry, there really is no two ways about it. This little engine can chug itself over the hill for the next few years, but it's all downhill from there. I use a Windows desktop and I constantly find myself wondering: "what am I paying MS for?". I personally like to use Word (even though it's too bloated for my needs), but clients ask for work to be in Google Docs so they can share and comment better.

You can alwayws get a Mac or install Linux.

But 70% of the world's population wont do either in the next 10-20 years.

nness• 11 years ago

I Google'd the phrase "Windows/Microsoft is Dead" (variations there of), since I feel like that cry is made every time a new version of Windows is released or layoffs announced, etc. One of PG's posts from 2007 came up. In it I think is a quote as relevant now as it was nearly a decade ago:

No one is even afraid of Microsoft anymore. They still make a lot of money—so does IBM, for that matter. But they're not dangerous.

gbersac• 11 years ago

PG is for Paul Graham and the metionned post is http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

555imon• 11 years ago

Windows Phone did not take off when it partnered with Nokia to sell Lumia Phones. At that time Nokia still had market share and loyal users especially in Europe and India. Despite a good OS, great dev tools and good OEM backing MSFT did not manage to get a market share of 10% be a relevant 3rd platform. It's hard to imagine how MSFT would restart a battle that has been lost some time ago.

heavymark• 11 years ago

Was it ever alive? Like the Firefox phone, Amazon phone and sorts, they survived on Corporate funding in general not on consumer interest. Other than Google and Apple, it's simply too late for a new party to enter the game and not only over night catch up to it's competitors but surpass them. Instead they should focus on what they are good at and integrate as well as possible with the winners such as Google and Apple. Microsoft finally understand that and is now refocusing on productivity, firefox is the little engine that could but sadly can't, amazon is trying anything to make itself profitable for investors so I don't expect them to start refocusing anytime soon.

realusername• 11 years ago

I would argue that's even harder for them than FirefoxOS because at least with FirefoxOS, it's powered by web technologies and you can have most basic apps without much work. Whereas with Windows Phone, you need actual developer time to create an application in the new ecosystem. It's already hard to convince people to port applications but it's even harder to convince them to redevelop something new entirely.

nivla3• 11 years ago

Not exactly true. You can build Web Apps for existing Windows Phone devices and Windows 10 mobile, you can import your iOS or Android apps directly to Windows app store.

nivla3• 11 years ago

Was it ever alive?

Outside of US? Ya it was as alive as alive could be especially in Europe and Asia. I was flooded with constant adverts on TV and a good chunk of people did indeed a Windows Phone.

github-cat• 11 years ago

Cannot believe it. The market share of Windows Phone is even lower than Java ME. https://www.netmarketshare.com/operating-system-market-share...

coldtea5• 11 years ago

Was it ever alive?

wordbank• 11 years ago

No, I'm using Lumia 830 and had 520 before. There are all basic apps and many Unity games.

And Lumia 5 series are selling like hotcakes in poor countries. Windows Phone OS is smooth and fast on low-end even compared to iOS.

(I'm not a MS fan, OS X is my desktop.)

dmarlow• 11 years ago

WP has always had an uphill climb. That's not going to change anytime soon. MS shouldn't give up on it either. I've been an early adopter and continue to use it to this day. I'm not an apple fan and don't like google either. Mobile needs MS to give an alternative in the market.

I'm primarily a MS stack dev (former MS). I hear these same old MS is dying rants every few years. I don't see things going away, let alone changing anytime soon. In a few years from now their market share (desktop) may be a few percentage points lower and cynics will continue to rant. I enjoy working on the Azure/Windows platform. Most issues I've had were self inflicted.

nextweek2• 11 years ago

I feel sorry for those being laid off, I imagine that the next generation of Microsoft phone hardware will not be a good as the Lumia range, which is the phones main strength.

The Windows Phone OS problem is that they are playing catch up, it has come a long way in a short time which has hurt App developers. But given another couple of years of stability and I think it will be on par with iOS8 and Android 5.1.

Microsoft is just lowering its overheads whilst it matures the platform. By the time we get Windows 11, they'll ramp up for a big push to ISV's.

Is Windows Phone Dead?

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