iPhone 6 and Android value

http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2014/9/10/iphone6

by taylorwc • 12 years ago

103 238 12 years ago

declan3• 12 years ago

I think the article's author is right and that there could easily be high-end market shift from Android at the margin. On the other hand, Android Wear watches are already shipping, Google voice search is better than Siri, Google Now is kinda magic, Material Design is a very nice unified design language that is arguably better than iOS, and Android Auto could take off.

(By way of background, I'm working on developing http://recent.io for both iOS and Android. Currently I switch between an iPhone 5 and a Nexus 5 and expect to buy both the iPhone 6 and the Nexus 6/X rumored to be coming out this fall.)

with the iPhone 6 Plus (a very Microsofty name, it must be said)...

Except for the Apple II Plus, the Mac Plus, the LaserWriter Plus, the Apple IIc Plus, the Apple III Plus[1]... In reality I'd say it's a very Appley name! :)

[1] Yes, there actually was such a critter: http://support.apple.com/kb/TA31434

toomuchtodo6• 12 years ago

+1; The value isn't in the device, it's in the ecosystem.

Siri isn't going to integrate with my Nest, Apple Maps isn't going to have a fleet of vehicles driving around to confirm mapping data, and Google Now has the ability to digest information from both existing Google users and the web.

Can Apple create a better platform backend faster than Google can meet them at design/UX?

psbp2• 12 years ago

But it's in Google's interest to have all of those benefits available on Apple's platform as well.

traek• 12 years ago

The thing is, most of Google's services are available on iOS as well. And IMO Google's apps are as good on iOS or even better than they are on Android. You can get the best of both worlds by using iOS with Google's apps and services.

Zaheer• 12 years ago

In terms of the app portion of the ecosystem, iOS apps tend to be much higher quality than Android apps overall.

sounds• 12 years ago

Google has traditionally been too attention-starved to stick with a product long enough to get the design/UX perfect.

That's not to say Google has never created a truly beautiful product. Rather, the problem seems to be that Google isn't hooked directly to the hardware sales, so hardware design is left to third parties. Except for the handsets Google sells directly.

In the end, I think this strategy will win for Google, because there is so much more effort being invested into the creation of Android devices. I'm not saying quantity = quality, but rather that "good enough" trumps "perfect."

In the meantime, Xiaomi is a good example of trying to get Android to "perfect" -- and it's very telling that they mod it extensively (in MIUI).

threeseed3• 12 years ago

Siri isn't going to integrate with my Nest

What makes you think Apple won't release a SiriKit in the future ?

Apple Maps isn't going to have a fleet of vehicles driving around to confirm mapping data.

Neither does Google in most places. And Apple, Google, Microsoft etc all rely on third party data providers for most of their map data. Surely they would be confirming the data.

Can Apple create a better platform backend faster than Google can meet them at design/UX?

The issue is not what Google itself does. It's the ability of Google to influence the ecosystem to come along with it. That has always been the problem.

ssmoot4• 12 years ago

I have a Nest, and the Nest app on both Android and IOS. I'm not sure what you're getting at with that. Seems the experience is pretty much identical?

m_ke2• 12 years ago

Apple will be royally screwed if smartwatches catch on. I feel that way for two reasons:

1) Watches are a fashion accessory and one does not fit all. There's no way they'll be able to compete with the variety of devices that will be running android wear.

2) A proper smartwatch will need to be smart and Apple doesn't have the data nor the personnel to compete with Google on the machine learning side.

threeseed3• 12 years ago

We've heard exactly the same thing about the iPod, iPhone, iPad. If you measure being "royally screwed" on market share then sure Apple will never do as well as Android.

But if you measure it on actually making money than Apple will be just fine.

The companies that are royally screwed are the LG, Samsungs of the world who are having their margins eaten by the Chinese.

achompas5• 12 years ago

(1) Counterpoint: Apple has much better taste than other OEMs. They've hired designers from Burberry and Nike to assist with wearable design. Design is a core competency for Apple. Others can't claim the same thing.

(2) More data gets you a couple of percentage points on accuracy. It doesn't make Google Now infinitely better in perpetuity than Apple's offering (Siri + whatever is next). Apple is also investing heavily in building out Siri/Maps/NLP.

rayiner3• 12 years ago

Is Google Voice Search really better than Siri? It seems much less able to handle things like followup or anything that requires context. "OK Google" is much more likely to just give me a web search, while my wife's iPhone seems to more often give helpful spoken results.

psbp2• 12 years ago

In my limited use of both, Google is better at voice recognition. I'm not sure why they haven't built a true siri competitor.

rdtsc• 12 years ago

$600. I know they were always expensive. But for me, I just don't see paying that for something I might forget, drop, sit on, lose, have it stolen.

I got a Moto G for $170. Paid cash, and then got on a T-Mobile month by month plan. If I break it. I'll just go and get another one.

My relatives and friends have iPhones and looking and comparing them, I just don't see the extra "niceness" worth the other $430. Same goes for expensive Android phones.

barbs• 12 years ago

Bought the Moto G for my Dad for his birthday. He's reasonably tech-savvy, and he's owned a Samsung Galaxy S2, but he loves it. He knows how much it costs and is constantly amazed at how well it performs.

frio• 12 years ago

I strongly agree with this. With the new iOS, Apple have caught up on some of the Android features I've wanted to see in that platform. My current phone is aging, and I was ready to cut over.

However -- at an eye-watering $1000NZD minimum for a 16GB iPhone 6, there's just no way I can justify the purchase. The 5S is still going for a minimum of $900NZD. Retina assets mean that 16GB is vaguely pointless, so you're really looking at $1150 or $1300 (6/6+) for the step up.

Google's Nexus line, the Moto X/G and others have proved that premium-ish devices can be had for a third of that price, and as much as I'd like to be on iOS, I simply can't afford it.

microtonal3• 12 years ago

And even if you can, why would you? I currently have a Moto X. If something bad happens with it (stolen, damaged), I will get a 180 Euro Moto G. It's still not pocket change, but far less to worry about than a 699 Euro iPhone 6. I want to use a phone carelessly and not put it on a silk pillow or use it with a case or screen protector.

Some of my friends have Gs, and they are very happy with it. I played with one, and I really liked it (especially the first gen, which has a nice size).

rodgerd• 12 years ago

However -- at an eye-watering $1000NZD minimum for a 16GB iPhone 6, there's just no way I can justify the purchase.

Even if I was tempted by the iOS environment, I'd fall into the same boat. I got a Z1 Compact this year for NZ$500 and I've got a great camera, waterproof, 64 GB of storage, snappy smartphone. People keep playing with it and wanting to know where to buy them.

ssmoot4• 12 years ago

For me no Android I've owned was a suitable camcorder.

A 128GB iPhone 6 Plus is an awesome camcorder, that's always with you, and you can painlessly share your HD videos with your iphone equipped family over iMessage. (Google Plus Photos are awesome, but it's not really comparable in ease of use/sharing for me). As a parent of a 5yo and a 2yo, that's reason enough for me.

Tepix• 12 years ago

Wether it'll be awesome remains to be seen: I'm quite disappointed about the iPhone 5s camera's low light performance when comparing it to recent Android phones.

And regarding storage, I'd say it's an advantage to have MicroSD cards you can change quickly, wouldn't you? Perhaps even a swappable battery?

gtaylor• 12 years ago

I was pretty stoked to be able to buy two Nexus 5's for my wife and I, all for about the same price as a single iPhone. That was a huge deal to me.

Got a premium phone at an affordable price. Spent the difference ($600) on other, more important things.

r00fus• 12 years ago

High specced and premium are two different things - my Nexus5 is a great phone, but my 2 year old iPhone5 is still more usable, looks better and has more apps (that I actually use).

Nexus 5 is a great deal - I just would not consider it premium (even when I bought it last Nov).

georgemcbay• 12 years ago

Agreed. I have a Nexus 5 so that's more than the Moto G, but the fact that it was and continues to be a great smartphone that I bought for $350 (unsubsidized) basically capped the amount I'd ever be willing to spend on a phone that didn't have some radical new must-have technology at $350 2014 dollars. I suspect when I replace it in the next year or two the cap will drop even further to $180-250.

mgreg4• 12 years ago

Google's strategy of driving down handset costs continues. They don't make money on the hardware or software but rather on the data collection and advertising from android devices. Apple, on the other hand, makes their money from the devices. As people continue to undervalue their data and put up with advertising we'll increasingly see this logic. Why pay $600 to Apple when I can pay $170 to X. This puts pricing pressure on Apple and will eventually reduce their competitiveness.

It's google's ad supported model that is winning - not a superior product. That's not to say their product is bad - its quite good. But they can essentially give it away and make money on the users…

kayone• 12 years ago

moto g is made by motorola, which is no longer owned by google. As far as I know manufacturers are not making any money from ad revenue.

lern_too_spel6• 12 years ago

You get the same amount of ads whichever platform you use. The only difference is by using Google services on either platform, the ads served by Google will be more targeted. How is the user worse off in this arrangement? They use superior apps, pay less for the phone, and get less annoyed by non-relevant ads.

microtonal3• 12 years ago

As people continue to undervalue their data and put up with advertising we'll increasingly see this logic.

I agree in general with your point, but I wanted to add that Android is so open that you can easily make different choices. E.g., you can install CalDAV and CardDAV plugins and you can use Fastmail, iCloud, or whatever your favorite e-mail/calendaring provider is. Google could make people's lives more difficult there, but in a sense Cyanogenmod and the fact that handset manufacturers can fork Android will probably keep it sane.

Also, I think that the focus on advertising is too one-dimensional and doesn't see the bigger picture. The use of free Google products makes people want to use them for work as well (like illegal private Office copies drove enterprise Office adoption). Companies that use Google Apps for Work pay $5 or $10 per month per user for Google's services and get the guarantee that data in Apps will not be used for advertising. Then there's Google Play Music, a percentage of every app store purchase, the future Youtube subscription service, Google Voice and Hangouts calling.

Over the last years, Google has steadily added venues for getting revenue besides advertising.

mcphage7• 12 years ago

Google's strategy of driving down handset costs continues. They don't make money on the hardware or software but rather on the data collection and advertising from android devices. Apple, on the other hand, makes their money from the devices.

But Google isn't making the devices.

Why pay $600 to Apple when I can pay $170 to X.

How much does X make on that $170 device, compared to how much Apple makes on their $600 device?

But they can essentially give it away and make money on the users…

Google can, yes. But their device manufacturers can't. And that's where a lot of Windows PC developers ended up—they raced to lots of low margin sales, and made less and less on each sale. It hasn't gone well for them.

zanny• 12 years ago

I was recently torn between a Republic Wireless Moto G and a Freedompop Galaxy S4.

I went with the later, because while it was twice as expensive, I liked the screen size, LTE, camera, etc a lot more. And I think it was worth it, especially considering my phone bill is $0 rather than $6 / month. I can always buy more on demand if I need any beyond the flat 200 minutes a month, but so far that has not been the case. It probably will be around Christmas, though.

freehunter3• 12 years ago

I'm of a similar mind, but everyone is different. Personally, I do see the extra value in the $430 difference, so I bought an iPhone. I won't get into it here, but it's worth it to me. However, I also own a Nexus 4 as a backup, and it has come in handy. My wife broke her iPhone and I gave her mine and switched to the Nexus 4 until I could get a replacement iPhone. Same thing when my old Windows Phone stopped working before I got my first iPhone, I moved to the Nexus until I could get a new phone.

It's great that for $200 you can get a phone that is nice with few compromises and not really be bummed if it breaks. The camera was god-awful on the Nexus 4, but for $200 I didn't mind much.

Zigurd2• 12 years ago

The BIG HUGE problem with the article is in using app store revenue to measure "value to the ecosystem." Google does not show signs of caring about app store revenue and would certainly continue to develop Android without that revenue. Google has a completely different ecosystem than Apple.

That said, The value of the new iPhones is considerable. They will make a dent in Android market share, but not as big a dent as had they been "indestructable" sapphire clad.

benedictevans6• 12 years ago

App store revenue is not really relevant to Apple or Google - it's small as a proportion of either company. It is, though, relevant to developers - partly for its own value, but as importantly for what it tells you about the users. That is, it's a proxy for overall willingness to spend on anything. Pretty much all ecommerce companies will tell you they see the same proportions, even if they're not using iTunes or Google payments directly.

Ologn• 12 years ago

I primarily program for Android. One of my personal apps has bounced between $1000 and $2300 a month in revenue since May 2013. Over 99% of that was ad revenue (the other <1% were experiments in alternative revenue). Not spectacular, but I've been happy with it, and I have other Android apps making money on ads as well.

Many websites make money on ads, why not apps? In mobile ads versus web ads, mobile has drawbacks and advantages. Some of the advantages have not been fully employed yet. If John Doe is walking through a mall, a Macy's ad can spring up for a sale within that mall. Mobile is still in its nascent stage, and ad networks to support it are still in early days.

Insight into what Android consumers are willing to spend money on is next to nothing. Ecommerce companies have cruddy Android apps, and their web sites look horrible in a phone.

One billion Android phones will be sold this year. Lack of Android consumer willingness to spend has little to do with them, and a lot to do with how little businesses have been giving users. Making money with Android is like shooting fish in a barrel since, for whatever reason, companies and programmers aren't stepping up to do add-ons for the billion Android phones that will sell this year. That may be changing though - three years ago the New York Android meetings fit around a table at a bar, now they're sponsored by companies and overflowing the 200 person registration limit. So that infrastructure is getting built out. Until then, we know next to nothing about the overall willingness of Android consumers to spend.

dude3• 12 years ago

Apple needs to publish SunSpider Javascript and other real world browser benchmarks. The new A8 is going to be much faster than a 2.7 805 in the Note 4. The iPhone is actually a great deal when you consider performance.

http://hothardware.com/articleimages/Item2222/sunspider.png

capcah• 12 years ago

I'd like to point out the writer for dismissing customisability. This is my opinion, but the popularity of some apps used to customise my phone leads me to believe I do not stand alone.

Let's not forget that the android can offer advanced functionality that Apple seems to refuse to offer on its devices: access to a local file system, ability to work as an USB stick(it's even possible to have your phone work as a boot stick), being able to turn its wireless card into monitor mode for mobile sniffing.

Last, but not least: Waterproofness and mechanical resistance. Apple seems to have forgotten these two points on the iPhone, even though they already have a good starting point(phone with no removable battery).

So, yeah, I don't think apple will win over the premium market that easily.

EDIT: Adjusting newlines, forgot that newfags can't triforce.

psychometry2• 12 years ago

I laughed when he wrote that Android customization is basically alternate keyboards and widgets. Clearly he's never even held one in his hand. I switched to Android after four iPhones and I'm amazed at how much easier and quicker it is to do things on Android when I have total control over the UI.

benedictevans6• 12 years ago

That's not what I wrote. I said that iOS8 addresses some of these points, with keyboards as just one example, and that the key difference is now personal taste rather than screen size or availability.

Clearly some people prefer iOS and others Android. But that's not the issue, is it?

benedictevans6• 12 years ago

ROTFL at mobile sniffing as a premium feature in a consumer product segment selling 400m units a year. Thanks!

brazzledazzle• 12 years ago

ROTFL at mobile sniffing as a premium feature in a consumer product segment selling 400m units a year. Thanks!

The condescension is palpable.

Igglyboo2• 12 years ago

EDIT: Adjusting newlines, forgot that newfags can't triforce.

Seriously? I get that it's a 4chan reference but really I thought HN was better than using slurs like that even in jest.

harshreality• 12 years ago

It's interesting how Apple talked about ApplePay as if it's something revolutionary, that "only Apple could do". Maybe Apple did motivate retailers to put in NFC payment hardware, but I've been using Google Wallet at Whole Foods (with a N5 released 9 months ago) for weeks, since they put in NFC at the payment kiosks (probably in advance of the Apple Pay launch, but that makes no difference to my ability to use them). So I had to laugh at the attempt to promote Apple Pay and NFC as a selling point of iPhone 6 and iOS 8. A little late to that party, Apple... if you're going to show up late, don't pretend you're first, instead focus on how you implemented it better (which may very well be true, although I haven't seen android 5 yet).

sosuke• 12 years ago

I think it must be conceded that Apple was much more aggressive in on-boarding POS systems and credit card companies than Google, and for that they deserve credit. Google moved first with the tech, said "here, go forth and code for it", and didn't get a ton of traction.

Apple went so far as to even get a cut of the credit card transaction fees if Bloomberg was right.

Even Paypal hasn't had a ton of success trying to be THE mobile payment platform, and what was poking fun at Apple actually turns around, IMHO, to be a stab at themselves for not delivering on a system themselves.

"Nobody can dispute Apple's strong track record, but payments is a difficult area," PayPal's Rob Skinner told TechRadar. "It's much more difficult to do payments than to keep a live stream working."

simonh2• 12 years ago

'PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They're not going to just walk in.'

72deluxe4• 12 years ago

If only the UK had such Android wallet capabilities...

phaus2• 12 years ago

What about the 7th category, the consumer that is tired of having his wallet savaged by the four major carriers. Android offers users the opportunity to buy a high-end device, off-contract, for $350. You can then use this phone with a pre-paid service that costs 1/2 of what the major carriers sell.

Maybe its a small demographic, but it seems like its growing.

estel• 12 years ago

Whilst obviously it's not at this price, but surely you can get an iPhone off-contract?

prof_hobart• 12 years ago

You certainly can in the UK.

Igglyboo2• 12 years ago

Yep, I think the base model iPhone 6 is going to be $600 off contract.

phaus2• 12 years ago

You are correct, but the pricing was the entire point of the statement I made.

ansible• 12 years ago

... a high-end device, off-contract, for $350.

Maybe even less if you can time it right. When the Nexus 4 went on sale last year for $200 (8GB) / $250 (16GB) USD last year, I debated it for all of about 10 minutes before buying one. If the N5 goes on sale this year to clear out the inventory, I'd consider that a very good value as well.

diminish2• 12 years ago

The Apple's sales market share of non-phablets <5" is known, around 20% for 14Q2 where sub-5" make up 60% of the total market ( Tomi Ahonen).

The upcoming hidden truth is that Apple is on its way for a single digit global smartphone market share. It's main strength appears to be the operator lock in in US mainly and elsewhere. Moto360 and others are even competing against this point with a price lower than just the contract prepayment.

Another problem is the looming lower overall smartphone growth next year, which will drive prices further down. Fred Wilson ended up being right, in that, the smartphone market turned out to be similar to PC market where a dominant ~90% Android will be next to a single digit Apple.

benedictevans6• 12 years ago

Actually, I quoted utterly uncontroversial, industry standard stats. I'd response to your other points, but I don't quite understand what you're trying to say. Apple sold around 20% of all smartphones in Q4 2013 (it's pretty cyclical) and is at or around 10% of all phone sales - this number is rising steadily.

diminish2• 12 years ago

ok, tried to make it better. Apple iPhone Plus may dent into >5", phablet category where in Q2 it has 0%, which makes 40% of overall. For the Larger sub 5" Apple has 20% share of sales in Q2.

mcphage7• 12 years ago

Fred Wilson ended up being right, in that, the smartphone market turned out to be similar to PC market where a dominant ~90% Android will be next to a single digit Apple.

How are the major Windows PC manufacturers doing these days?

buro94• 12 years ago

If you follow Benedict Evans on Twitter then you know that he is something of an Apple fan boy, so it's hard to read such a piece without noting that there is already considerable bias in it.

I'd like to address the first list though, "There are a bunch of reasons why someone would buy a high-end Android rather than an iPhone".

That list does not include the two reasons that myself and people I know use Android:

1. We wish to have control over our devices

2. We have not invested heavily in either Apple or Google and we avoid making choices that will force us to be invested in one over the other

On the first point, control may be about privacy (using something like XPrivacy), personalisation (perhaps CyanogenMod), adblock (AdAway), or simply having more control over what runs to be able to extend the battery of a Nexus 5 to a few days of heavy use rather than a single day (kill all the background services but still have the apps available for us to use).

On the second point, myself and my friends do not use Google as an ecosystem or as a range of permanent services and virtual assistants. We invariably are using different launchers (Nova is most common), perhaps Duck Duck Go... and our Google footprint is really just to use some Google apps as standalone apps (Gmail, calendar, drive). We tend to get media from Kindle, or Spotify... so we're not even hooked on Google Play.

What this means is that we've avoided deep lock-in with Google, and we make choices that avoid being locked in to Microsoft or Apple too.

When I think of what most of my friends use, it's a mix of technologies. Apple and Lenovo laptops, the latter running Windows or Linux. iPods and Cowon music players. Mostly Android phones.

The biggest reasons not to go for an iPhone are the same reasons we haven't gone for an iPhone to date: It feels like an all or nothing decision that would be hard to change in the future.

The value of an iPhone seems to be of the entire Apple ecosystem, it makes sense if you've bought into it already, or are choosing to buy into it, but not if you do not choose to be locked in.

The value, to us, of an Android device is that you can get the benefits of this technology without having to be part of any ecosystem, Google's or Samsung's or that of anyone else (Amazon?).

I'm not sure it's possible for Benedict to see this any more... he's personally so deep into the Apple world that his perspective is skewed by that reality. The question of why anyone would choose not to be a part of an ecosystem isn't even asked. He's made it an Apple vs Google question, when the people I know using Android are not even considering that question.

PS: If I think of what entices people to consider an Apple iPhone more than anything else, it's the camera (usually noted as the software ecosystem around the camera). Photography on an iPhone bests every Android device there is. This is the single reason that some of my friends have an iPhone.

gphreak• 12 years ago

I dislike the term fanboy, but otherwise a solid addition to the post.

One could argue that what you describe is a very geeky way to approach that descision and most people won't follow the same train of thought.

buro94• 12 years ago

I suspect you are right.

There is a common theme amongst my friends that whilst they are not technical (I am the only programmer or person working in tech), they are all geeks for one thing or another; be it cameras, watches, coffee, cycling gear and so on.

They like to tinker and play with things, have some control over them. Adults with toys.

It's probably a selection bias, but it reaches out to so many people that ignoring it entirely is also a bias.

fuzzythinker2• 12 years ago

One of my main reason for using Android is I hate being forced to use iTunes to update and sync.

One, it has one of the worst UI for device managers (was designed manage music), and it's a very unpleasant experience for me every time I am forced to use it to manage my idevices.

Two, it had wiped out everything in my iphone one time I try to sync it to a new computer. To me, the word "sync" means to update devices so that the data missing from the other device gets synced. No way would I have second guessed it would wipe out data from the device. So every time I use iTunes to sync, I get super nervous.

With Android, I can just navigate my device as if it's just an external drive when I plug it into my computer(a Mac).

iTunes is just the opposite of Apple's "it just works" motto.

lutusp18• 12 years ago

To me, the word "sync" means to update devices so that the data missing from the other device gets synced.

But that's not what sync means. True sync has a source and a target, and the target's file collection is always made to match the source. If you confuse the source and the target and the "source" is empty, you get the outcome you describe -- the empty device's file collection is "duplicated" (i.e. erased) on the other device that's been mistakenly chosen as the target.

This is a surprisingly common outcome among people who don't fully understand the meaning of sync. If your interpretation were the default meaning, it would be impossible to delete any tracks from your music collection. If you deleted some tracks from the source device, the source would have those tracks restored from the target instead of being deleted from it -- but that's not what sync means.

EDIT: People, don't downvote posts just because you don't understand the topic under discussion. The above description is absolutely, incontrovertibly correct in every detail. Therefore, in a depressing trend, it's been downvoted because it's annoyingly, infuriatingly right.

lpsz• 12 years ago

Not a fan of iTunes myself and its all-or-nothing sync behavior does ask for more. Fortunately, it has been possible to update the device or download purchased content directly on the device for a couple of years now.

btgeekboy• 12 years ago

I fire up iTunes about once a year or so to make a backup. If you're syncing your mail/addresses/calendar/music (eg Spotify)/photos/etc via other services, there's really not much to sync otherwise. Not to mention that iOS updates over the air now, and does not require a computer to activate.

e40• 12 years ago

One of my main reason for using Android is I hate being forced to use iTunes to update and sync.

I was always amazed when a friend that had an iPhone said all his (music|photos) were wiped by iTunes when he plugged in his phone, again. It seems like such an easy thing to get right, but if you can't get it right, toss up a dialog "do you want to reset this device's (photo|music) store?"

ghshephard5• 12 years ago

" I hate being forced to use iTunes to update and sync."

In two years, I've never used iTunes to update and sync - I'm not sure what I'm missing, but apparently one can use an iPhone without iTunes.

emehrkay2• 12 years ago

I find iTunes vastly superior to Android File Transfer. Actually, Android needs an "iTunes"-like application. Couldn't Chrome have an extension?

eik3_de• 12 years ago

I appreciate your comment buro9, thank you!

simonh2• 12 years ago

Any platform you buy into includes lock-in. Buying an Android phone locks you into the world of Android apps just as much as an iOS device locks you into iOS apps. Music on iTunes is DRM free. eBooks are an issue, but there's a Kindle app for iOS and plenty of other options just as on Android.

Even when it comes to browsers and search engines, now that iOS 8 has robust XPC, the optimised browser engine is available to third party browser apps. These will let you set whatever default search provider you like, without any performance compromises.

Sure there are some areas where Android devices retain more customisability, but iOS 8 closes the gap considerably, and without fundamentally compromising security and privacy in the way many of these features do on Android.

aikah• 12 years ago

Any platform you buy into includes lock-in. Buying an Android phone locks you into the world of Android apps just as much as an iOS device locks you into iOS apps.

Yet I can build an android app,deploy it, share it with my friends and co-workers without having to put it on google play,owning a specific computer with a specific os, or paying a fee.

Try to do all that with an iphone.

lnanek2• 12 years ago

Your reasons are those of someone deeply involved in technology, which is not the case for the mass market. For them, just looking and feeling good is far more important.

buro94• 12 years ago

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8301303

deong6• 12 years ago

I think you're largely correct, but I'd add another point, which is that even if Evans was on the money about why people bought a Galaxy Note a year or two ago, it far from follows that the decision process is exactly the same today.

Someone might have chosen a Macbook in 2006 because they really liked the white plastic, but that doesn't mean that eight years later, they'd be at all likely to buy a new white plastic Lenovo running Windows. In the meantime, they will have acclimated themselves to the platform, gotten used to how it works, come to rely on features that aren't on another platform, or simply not want to deal with the hassle of starting over from scratch with a blank slate device.

benedictevans6• 12 years ago

Thanks for the comment. I think what you've missed is that the attitude you describe is shared by a very, very small proportion of the user base - perhaps a few tens of millions out of the 1bn+ Android users. I had a go at estimating this last year: http://ben-evans.com/benedictevans/2013/6/5/counting-geeks-w... I tried to capture it in the 'people who don't like Apple' bucket, but as you say its a little more nuanced than that.

Fundamentally, the question is not 'why does a HN reader buy Android?' but 'what motivated the multiple hundreds of millions of people who bought a $600+ Android?' and as I'm sure you know, they're not using Cyanogen (though as investors in it we hope that changes;) Screen size is a huge factor.

buro94• 12 years ago

I clarified that further down: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8301303

I am the only HN/technical person on another large forum (not this), and the common thing amongst those members and the many real-world friends I have via that is that they are geeks for other things: cars, bicycles, watches, cameras, coffee, etc. This geek tendency carries to other areas, including smart phones.

I've definitely got a selection bias by having friends who are geeks (in the non-technical meaning), but there is still a bias in selecting arguments that excludes the existence of people who are geeks.

I agree with much of what you've said (and have said) and what motivates one way or the other... but I do think that your arguments don't acknowledge people who buy top-end Android, and do so without intending to buy into Google, or Samsung. With Apple and Amazon it's somewhat harder, buying their devices is to buy into their ecosystem.

The decisions I see them make is very much based on their desire to control their own things... the definition of control varies on a person to person basis, but it is the common factor.

On Cyanogen I personally do not run it, most of the benefits people seek can be obtained by rooting but keeping the stock ROM. This hasn't stopped friends from blundering through online guides though. That is the thing that surprises me, they're not technical, most work in offices doing admin/marketing/sales stuff, and they want top-end devices with the status that comes with it, but they really want to assert control over their devices.

Whomever allows those people to have control (officially or not) wins them, for that is one of their biggest triggers when choosing new devices and accessories.

seanflyon• 12 years ago

Even for non-technical people iPhone has worse "lock in" because Apple tries as hard as they can to enforce lock in. For example, if you buy content within an app on the iPhone, the developer cannot let you access that content on a non-apple device or Apple will remove their app from the app store. The same is not true of Android.

bane2• 12 years ago

Personally, I see Apple's product integration as a liability. It's fantastic for many users, it simplifies things and makes devices work well together. But, mostly for business reasons I'd guess, they define that integration to be best or only on Apple made devices.

But for me I feel like I'm putting all my eggs in one basket.

I know the app ecosystem is improving a bit and mediating lots of that, but there's still a long legacy there and I'm concerned about hard corners that will lock me in.

mark_l_watson2• 12 years ago

I used to feel that way. However, now that I am mostly retired, owning both iOS and Android devices does not seem necessary, and giving up some freedoms and jumping with both feet into Apple's little walled garden seems like a reasonable decision. I am almost certain to trade in my beautiful Samsung phone for an iPhone 6+. I have been running the beta of Yosemite for a long while and the new iOS 8 integrations with OS X, look good. I feel like making my life simpler.

I almost went in the opposite direction. I have been a Linux fan since 1992, and I still have several Linux servers I use for hosting my web apps. I thought of getting a FSF 'free' style phone, etc. and have fun with that.

But, I feel like a simpler life style now and I am willing to give up flexibility and, I hate admitting, some FSF style freedoms. #sellout

Cowicide• 12 years ago

We wish to have control over our devices

I say this as an Android user who prefers Android over iOS for various reasons (Firefox and its Addons, mainly), but when you say that you wish to have control over your device, you're forgetting that one can jailbreak an iOS device if they so desire which gives one vastly more "control" over it, so to speak.

Granted, a reason (aside from vastly cheaper hardware prices) I choose Android over iOS is the fact that I don't even have to root my device to get more customizations and options (I use SwiftKey, for example) than an iOS device that's non-jailbroken, but I do pay a price for that in regards to less functionality, security and performance compared to iOS devices (in certain circumstances) because of Android fragmentation, etc. - Just ask most musicians why they prefer iOS over Android, if you want just one case scenario.

But, all in all, I wouldn't paint all iOS users with one brush that says they don't want "control" over their devices. "Control" comes in many forms and methodologies and is often in the eye of the beholder anyway.

On the second point, myself and my friends do not use Google as an ecosystem

But, you must admit that takes time and time is money. Finding third party alternatives (you can trust and work well) isn't free once you consider the time it takes to do so.

The value of an iPhone seems to be of the entire Apple ecosystem, it makes sense if you've bought into it already, or are choosing to buy into it, but not if you do not choose to be locked in.

Agreed, but there's workarounds. Also, I feel that way about Android considering its fragmentation limitations. I'm locked into some apps on Android I really don't prefer and iOS has better, more competitive choices of related apps that vastly suit me better.

It's all give and take, really. In the end, I choose Android (overall) but since I also have iOS devices I use for testing purposes, etc. I have no allusions that there's sacrifices I make by choosing Android over iOS.

he's personally so deep into the Apple world that his perspective is skewed by that reality.

I'd focus less on ad hominem and more on the facts.

higherpurpose• 12 years ago

Here's one thing the author is missing: all high-end phones are essentially being "disrupted" by lower cost models that are getting increasingly better - or in other words just as good as the high-end ones were 2-3 years ago, when many people were very happy with their high-end phones at the time.

Why do you think Apple's market share is steadily declining at the global levels? It's because of the lower-cost phones. So Apple may "win" the 600+ dollar/euro high-end, just like they won in the $1,000+ PC market, and while that will no doubt continue to remain profitable for Apple, it will ultimately mean Apple has a small market share, and therefore a smaller ecosystem.

Htsthbjig• 12 years ago

I have an additional reason:

7.Taking notes on our devices.

I have an iphone for developing iOS and a galaxy Note.

I hate lots on things on Android(painfully slow and half baked) but note taking I love.

Nicholas_C• 12 years ago

What app do you use for note taking?

boyaka• 12 years ago

I don't understand why so many people in the Apple vs Android debate are completely oblivious to the fact that Apple is just a lot smoother transitioning from task to task and handling lag so that the user doesn't notice it. I've been a majority android user (Droid 1 '09-'11, Galaxy Nexus up to today) but I did purchase a 5s last year, which is currently waterlogged due to lending it to my mother.

I borrowed my mom's 3GS and even though it is quite slow, it has a magical ability to accurately detect and respond to my inputs as I would expect it to. Even on my Galaxy Nexus I have trouble with video lag switching between tasks, very long delays between my input and a response, and sometimes complete ignorance of my inputs. One of the most frustrating things for me when using the device is opening a web browser and trying to type a query into the search bar without having to wait for it to do who knows what in the background and attempt to load the last page I was looking at that I have no desire to see, while ignoring my spam clicking of the "X" to try to get it to stop.

Not to mention the app support for the 3GS is amazing compared to my Droid 1. I certainly can't get all the latest apps, but older apps still function extremely well, it really lives up to the UX hype. My Droid 1 can't even run YouTube anymore.

It's obvious that the advantage Apple has is that it has it's walled garden, closed hardware/software ecosystem. But it really shines in making the devices usable.

ZeroGravitas3• 12 years ago

Is all that money that the App store rakes in still mostly crappy, IAP-stuffed mobile games?

I know people like to pretend it's all artisanal productivity apps, but aren't the revenue numbers like 80% games?

(A quick Google finds some sources vaguely claiming this was true a couple of years ago, can't quickly find newer or better sourced stats)

minusSeven• 12 years ago

From an Indian perspective Iphone prices in India are really well out of budget of most people. Only people who can afford Iphone go for them. But even then lot of people like to try other options. Android is really dominant here and most people are rather familiar with the Android ecosystems.

msoad3• 12 years ago

That's this article's point. If someone can't afford $600 phone, Apple has no interest in them. Because Apple wants big margins. On other hand, Google is even willing to pay you to use Android to collect your data. They do it with their Android One program in India now.

prapam2• 12 years ago

Apple was giving heavy discounts to attract buyers. High end Samsung costs around same and they have good sales. "Google is even willing to pay you to use Android to collect your data" - where did you get that? Most of the people here buy at full price, we don't have subsidies.

msoad3• 12 years ago

Take me as an example:

I'm switching to iOS from a high end Android phone. My main reasons are better privacy and better user experience. My main reason I switched to Android was screen size.

kissickas2• 12 years ago

Do you see Apple as being better for privacy? Sure, Google has my Gmail, but only because I choose to give it to them. I could use anything else on my Android phone.

Do you use Firefox, duckduckgo, XPrivacy etc.? Because Apple, in reality, only gives you one choice (even when I was using Opera, Safari would butt in all of the time - I haven't read a word about iOS8 so correct me if I'm wrong), and you're screwed if it doesn't work.

msoad3• 12 years ago

My main issue with Android is how app permissions work.

jasonwen• 12 years ago

About the value of Apple vs Android users, it also helps that Apple has an easier payment system with Touch ID. This will only increase in the future.

Android however does have introduced a 2-hour money back guarantee on apps. This might increase the spend on apps.

fpgeek• 12 years ago

One the one hand, this argument sounds plausible.

On the other, we've seen this movie before. Remember Verizon? The iPhone 5 (LTE and a screen-size bump)? NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile?

These were all supposed to be game-changers. And while they all helped Apple sell plenty of phones, the Android/iPhone game didn't really change.

I'm sure the iPhone 6 and 6+ will be very successful. But I'm going to need to see something more before I believe that this time the game really will change.

aetherson• 12 years ago

I bought my first smartphone about 4.5 years ago. It was an Android because at the time an iPhone meant AT&T, and I didn't want to deal with their network.

Two years ago I bought my second smartphone. It was an Android because inertia and also because at the time iOS was really a bit behind Android in terms of things like notifications and useful o/s features.

I also bought my first tablet a little more than two years ago. It was an android because Apple didn't have a small tablet then (and because my phone was an android).

I'm going to get a new smartphone soon. And you know what? It'll be an Android. Yes, Apple has at this point addressed all the things that pushed me to Android. I could get an iPhone on any network. The o/s has caught back up. They have a small tablet now. But at this point, why would I change? Every time I use an iOS device, in bothered by a ton of small details -- they aren't really flaws, just things that don't work the way I expect. What's the upside? I like Android now. If they had had all those features from the start, it would have been a different story.

The flaw in this article is that it presumes that there is a large population of people who are just waiting for that one important feature to come to iOS so they can finally ditch Android. I don't think there are many people like that.

personZ2• 12 years ago

This article is a bit like postulating "Why you might not eat steak for dinner", and then positing reasons that all orbits the assumption that steak is your default choice, and alternatives must therefore have extenuating circumstances. It is an absurd foundation.

Did the grocer get more commission selling you chicken? (sidenote: That commission bit appears in every conspiracy laden story about Android's rise, despite having zero empirical evidence. Indeed, many carriers do more to market and pitch the iPhone than any other brand, implying something very different).

For most people now, smartphones are largely interchangeable. They really are. You have a browser, can make calls, can access Netflix and your fantasy football app and Facebook and Twitter, etc. An iPhone 6x versus a GS 5, for instance, to many users it is simply a wash. Apple has tried hard to lock people into an ecosystem (Facetime me? No, Skype or Hangouts me please), but those efforts have fallen by the wayside and are becoming more of a hindrance than a benefit.

So it comes down to marketing (you know, like having U2 and giving out albums to gain more attention for your keynote) and differentiating features. Apple tried with the "true tone" flash or whatever. HTC is trying the dual-lens camera. Others make their devices waterproof. And so on. It isn't so clear.

Further, Ben Evans isn't just a bit of an Apple fan boy -- he is a huge Apple fan boy, with compromised credibility outside of that circle. He got a taste of the Apple aficionado love so now he panders to it fullstop. And given that Evans loves pointing out the payout to developers (then, absurdly calculating per capita metrics because it sells his point), note that the Play Store payout is growing more quickly than the App Store is -- YoY growth in the most recent yearly period was 150%. At current rates the Play Store will payout more than Apple within a year. But of course they're both very lucrative targets, and it would be folly to ignore either, and it's bizarre that this metric even appears in a piece contemplating consumer choices.

pinaceae• 12 years ago

the true value of the iphone is the Apple ecosystem.

i give an rat's ass about android phones, they could be miles ahead - doesn't matter anymore. just a phone.

i have an iphone, ipad, apple tv, macbook air and a compatible printer. and everything just works, like magic.

i've spent years in the windows ecosystem tinkering. wrote my own sync for my iriver mp3 player, fiddled with regedit and battled drivers. so much lost time. IT bullshit galore. so tired of it.

i know that if i want an apple watch i can buy it and it will perfectly into the rest of my devices and just work with them.

no other vendor can claim such a value.

iOS8 and Yosemite make this crystal clear, the new handover between apps will even work from Apple Watch. Just like that.

Mikeb852• 12 years ago

You must have never used Google's cloud services. Docs, Drive, Hangouts, etc... Everything works device to device. Even a non-Google device that belongs to someone else. All you really need is Chrome and your credentials.

How about Google Cloud print? All you need is to have Chrome on the computer that hooks up to your printer, and you can print to that printer from any device, even remotely. I can be at school/work and print to my printer at home... And if you buy a printer with the feature enabled, it doesn't even need to be hooked up to anything (except some sort of internet connection).

And of course, Google Now. Tells me how far to work on the days I work. What the weather's like, even when I go out of town. Where my car is parked if I'm somewhere new. Where the restaurant I just called is located. Even the application on my phone that I use to call people (the one with a phone icon that used to just be for calling people) - I can search for their name and call them or, if it's a business or place I've never heard of, I can search for them in the same box, and it will find them and just call them. Super cool.

I'm sure your Apple ecosystem is just fine, and I'm sure it feels like magic compared to Microsoft's sludgery... Heck, Linux feels like magic compared to MS. But on the other side, Google's ecosystem is absolutely fantastic.

Oh yeah, and then there's Chromecast. But even without it most Smart TVs have some measure of compatibility with Google's ecosystem...

smrtinsert• 12 years ago

There really isn't that much fighting if there's fighting at all. The people buying Android in droves don't care. They see wide range of devices with more options. You might see an ecosystem, and they see lack of diversity.

tolmasky• 12 years ago

Its funny because my iPhone still doesn't support the same level of interconnectedness as sailing clicker did back in the feature phone days. I remember thinking it was so cool that my music would just pause on my mac if someone called me on my phone, or come back on when I walked back into my room.

Apple's ecosystem seems to be increasingly based on obsolete ideas. Spotify offers me more magic than any weird hard-to-explain more expensive iTunes Matchery. My music is available everywhere. Actually everywhere. Not everywhere asterisk if its an apple product. If I'm at a friends house and I want him to listen to a cool song I heard, but my phone is out of battery, I can go to his computer and still play it, even if he doesn't have spotify because they have a web player. That's actual magic.

Imagine if you could only watch youtube clips if you had a Google device or software. Its madness and far from an argument for "interconnectedness", and yet this is the situation the Apple music ecosystem is in.

The handover technology is another recent disappointment in this regard. We are still stuck in app-land. Handover is app-to-app. So when I'm listening to a podcast in Safari, I won't be able to handover to Overcast on my phone. I actually have to wait for marco arment to write a desktop podcast player, and worse, I have to use it, to get this basic functionality. Again, an aggressive misunderstanding of what it means to have true continuity: reading the same data on two devices, not using the same app on both.

Anyways, all this to say: I would have agreed with you ~4 years ago. But due to Apple's business interests (wanting to continue the own-music model much longer than people did, wanting to push app sales, etc), their ecosystem no longer represents what I want anymore, which is really unfortunate because I know that if they put their effort behind implementing real continuity, they'd do it best.

Oletros5• 12 years ago

i have an iphone, ipad, apple tv, macbook air and a compatible printer. and everything just works, like magic.

I have a Nexus 5, HP Omni 10 Win 8.1 tablet, macbook air and compatible printer. And everything just work. Magic? I don't think so, but they work.

slantyyz2• 12 years ago

i have an iphone, ipad, apple tv, macbook air and a compatible printer. and everything just works, like magic.

Um, YMMV. I (and people I know) had lots of problems with in-place upgrades to iOS7 on the iPhone 4. My proximity sensor stopped working and I'd end up face dialing while talking to people on the phone. Another friend of mine - the audio would cut out. The recommended fixes to the problem were inconvenient to say the least.

I've had my share of issues with Apple products - Time Capsule, Airport Express, iTunes and a variety of Macs. So while they can have fewer issues than Windows, "magic" is not a word I would use myself.

After Apple dropped the unibody form factor for the Macbook Pro in 2013 (my favorite form factor for a laptop - ever), I recently switched to Windows 8 for most of my hardware after being mostly Mac since 2005 -- and the transition was surprisingly easy (this software list helped a lot: http://www.hanselman.com/blog/ScottHanselmans2014UltimateDev...).

I'm not very happy with Window's font rendering on LCDs and some of stupid settings, but overall, I don't find that I miss the Apple ecosystem that much, if at all. I used to be what some people would call an Apple Fanboy, and while I still respect the products they come out with, they don't really have much that appeals to me any more.

slantyyz2• 12 years ago

> For most people now, smartphones are largely interchangeable.

This. I could be called an Apple Fanboy, and I myself stopped using iPhones in favor of an Android phone (I really wanted a Windows phone, but my carrier didn't have any available when I upgraded).

After a little bit of self-analysis, I realized that from iOS' gigantic app ecosystem, most of the stuff I was buying and installing was throwaway stuff. Most of my activities revolve around the core apps of the phone - e-mail, calendar, browser. My main non-core apps are basically RSS and Read Later apps.

Given that most of my stuff is in the cloud (but not the iCloud), it really doesn't matter what OS I have on my phone. And I'm not very interested in buying the latest and greatest when nothing I do really needs the horsepower. So I basically bought the cheapest phone that could do what I need it to (1st gen moto G). I don't worry about it getting stolen or broken, because my investment is so small.

In the end, the thing that really drove me away from iOS was how each software upgrade gradually crippled the usability of the device. I didn't mind paying the Apple premium for my 3G and 4, but that was because Android and WP didn't have parity (my opinion, not necessarily fact). Today, however, it's a completely different story. I'm sure I could be quite happy with any of the top 4 mobile OSes.

benedictevans6• 12 years ago

Idle observation - Windows Phone year-on-year growth is way higher than Android or iOS. Are you going to write your next app for that?

We don't, actually, have enough data to see quite how Play revenue is growing. But the really relevant point is that on roughly double the users, the payout is half. I'm not sure why that should be an absurd observation - you could try addressing that, but perhaps insults are easier.

personZ2• 12 years ago

Having portability to Windows Phone is a concern, and it is something that I am increasingly considering because it looks like an emerging, important platform. I prefer techniques and tools that allow me to cater to a multitude of platforms, because users are my customers, not platforms. I am not beholden to Apple or Google, and I don't serve in their name.

However your point is comically specious in the context -- Android Play Store sales went from $0.9B, to $2.0B, to $5.0B over successive years (these numbers are in Google's yearlies, despite your repeated claims that they're mysteriously shrouded. They're as transparent as Apple's numbers). Android Play Store sales right now are where App Store sales were last year. Where were the people talking about the dire results of the App Store last year? In fact, quite contrary it was held as an incredible, unparamounted success, by people like you. And not only is the Play Store already there, it is seeing extraordinary growth.

I'm not sure why that should be an absurd observation

Your own points are contradictory, holding the dichotomy of the rich Android users (who all apparently were just waiting for a larger iPhone) versus the poor Android user, but then mashing them together into one universally "poorer" Android user.

Android is the platform of all demographics. We know that from the famous city analysis of Android/iOS usage of twitter, where Android was dominant in the poorer areas of town, and similar to iOS in the rich areas of town. That is a great thing about the platform -- it is inclusive and lifts all boats -- and it is utterly reprehensible when some people hold this as a bizarre negative, as if platform association with the less wealthy brings it down.

It seems probable that the people in the richer areas are spending in the store. The people in the poorer areas aren't. That's life of consumable items and varying spending money. There is no great mystery to it. And your contention is that since all of those Android users with money are going to race to iPhone (the same story we've heard with every iOS release for years), there goes the store.

So how does a per capita basis make any sense? Oh because all facts need to be contrived into the message of Ben Evans?

I apologize for resorting to "insults", but it seems that reality has an insult-based bias in the case of analyzing your various creations. You are selling to the converted.

iPhone 6 and Android value

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