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threeseed

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So you believe that the majority of HN commenters support the Big Beautiful Bill:

Adding trillions in unfunded liabilities to the US debt, kicking tens of millions off of Medicaid and food snaps, allowing the Trump administration to ignore court rulings just to name a few. Arguably the worst bill in the history of the US.

Tech bros putting their personal wealth and greed ahead of what is best for society.

Because let's be honest here. That is the only reason you're posting this now of all times i.e. in order to help push support for the bill ? I really thought HN was above cynical politics.

if you lobby for a thing which does not do harm to other people

The reason this is being discussed now is because of its inclusion in the Big Beautiful Bill which will kill the poorest in society by kicking millions off Medicaid and food stamps and increase the debt to unsustainable levels.

So if you support this tax cut for software developers you are the bad guy.

You can’t judge battery life and performance off a .0 release when the priority is on delivering features with the minimum number of showstopper bugs. At least wait until the .1.

It has been like this for every Apple release for over 20 years.

The plural of anecdote is not data.

Let's repeat this process for 100 coding examples and see how many it can complete "hands-off" especially where (a) it isn't a case of here is a spec and I need you to implement it and (b) it isn't for a a use for which there is already publicly available code.

Otherwise your claim of "this seems true, right now!" is baseless.

If an LLM produces the most interesting, insightful, thought-provoking content of the day, isn't that what the best version of HN would be reading and commenting on?

Absolutely not. Would much rather take some that is boring, not thought provoking but that was authentic and real rather than as you say AI slop.

If you want that sort of content maybe LinkedIn is a better place.

Routinely had every one of these issues.

I find it's much better just to use Claude Web and be extremely specific about what I need it to do.

And even then half the code it generates for me is riddled with errors.

Learning from LLMs is akin to learning from Joe Rogan.

You are getting a stylised view of a topic from an entity who lacks the deep understanding needed to be able to fully distill the information. But it is enough to gain enough knowledge for you to feel confident which is still valuable but also dangerous.

And I assure you that many, many people are delegating to LLMs blindly e.g. it's a huge problem in the UK legal system right now because of all the invented case law references.

Is there some breakthrough in reasoning between o1 and o3 that we are all missing.

And no one cares what we may have in the future. OpenAI etc already have an issue with credibility.

bigger models trained on bigger data with bigger reasoning posttraining and better distillation will push the horizons further and further

There is no evidence this is the case.

We could be in an era of diminishing returns where bigger models do not yield substantial improvements in quality but instead they become faster, cheaper and more resource efficient.

aha! I told you they are useless

You said this. Neither Apple nor the author did.

The focus was specifically on LLM's reasoning capabilities not whether they are entirely useless or not.

This is relevant because countless startups and investment is predicated on LLM's current capabilities being able to be improved and built on top of. If it is a technological dead-end then we could be in for another long lull in progress. And companies like OpenAI should have their valuations massively cut.

It also constrains the level of investment Apple would need to be comparable to top tier LLM companies.

Almost certainly the easter egg found in the Trump "Big Beautiful Bill" which prevents states from enacting AI regulations also came from Musk.

That way he can continue to steal from others and lock competitors out whilst being comfortable knowing that no laws will be enacted to prevent it.

reasoning models know when they are close to hallucinating because they are lacking context or understanding and know that they could solve this with a question

You've just described AGI.

If this were possible you could create an MCP server that has a continually updated list of FAQ of everything that the model doesn't know.

Over time it would learn everything.

No it's not. It's only illegal if you are found guilty of it.

And for that to happen you need to be (a) an effective monopoly, (b) have a negative direct or indirect impact on consumers, (c) large enough for regulators to care about and (d) be in a regulatory environment that priorities this enforcement.