Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

http://www.teslacost.com

by OJKoukaz • 12 years ago

90 82 12 years ago

teslacost.com

jsnk• 12 years ago

Repost from 18 hours ago (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7583256)

bsilvereagle• 12 years ago

That's the fastest turn around I've seen.

dang• 12 years ago

I've buried this post as a dupe.

josephpmay• 12 years ago

Not including insurance was a mistake. The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car.

slantyyz3• 12 years ago

> The Honda Odyssey has some of the cheapest insurance of any car.

That depends on where you live. I've been told that my insurance rates (clean record) are high for my 2005 Odyssey because of the area I live in (I live just outside of Toronto, Canada).

brk• 12 years ago

Right, but the Odyssey would be cheaper to insure in your area than a Tesla (theoretically).

Insurance costs are very localized, but for any 2 vehicles the coverage cost spread between them is probably comparable in any given region. EG: an Odyssey will always be cheaper to insure than a Model S in any specific region, BUT insuring an Odyssey in Toronto might be more expensive than insuring a Model S in Tulsa.

sureshv• 12 years ago

High for just the Odyssey or higher for all cars in and around Toronto? Collision insurance is usually based on the cost of parts and service. I would be surprised if the Tesla came in cheaper.

dangero• 12 years ago

I'm pretty skeptical about resale value on the Model S at 5 or more years out just because their newer models will have major technical advances and the cost of a battery replacement. It's hard to speculate on that right now since the car is too new.

acgourley• 12 years ago

That's an excellent point but I would just temper it with the fact EVs should have lower long term maintenance issues for all non-battery parts. As an aside, I wonder if in 5 years you will be able to upgrade into a more powerful battery.

dba7dba• 12 years ago

Whenever I'm sitting around waiting for oil change/tuneup/etc for my 2 cars in the family, I am tempted to look into Tesla. Having to sacrifice a Sat/car every few months for oil change really bugs me. Of course oil change itself is quick and cheap, but it’s the time I have to spend.

EDIT: I should've clarified that I don't spend a WHOLE Sat for a car oil change. But for a 30min work on the car, you have to go there, wait to drop off car, listen to dealership clerk going on and on about expensive 'preventive' repair I should get (any my family friend mechanic tells me none needed), wait a few hours (because of other customers at same dealership), and get a ride back dealership to pick up the car. That's like 2-5hrs.

As for going to non-dealer mechanic, well it is hard to find a good mechanic you can really trust. And such mechanics are usually booked.

On my very 1st car last oil change, I got an oil change at a shop I hadn't gone to before, for lack of time. Later I learned the mechanic had jammed the cap to the bottom of the motor oil tank at an odd angle and had just jammed it on, destroying the thread on the tank. One more oil change and it would've meant having to replace the motor oil tank.

robomartin2• 12 years ago

For some reason I can't quite put my finger on I have been viewing everything that comes out of Tesla with skepticism and distrust. I think it started with the attempt to confuse people with "creative" financing options.

I know it is a good company. I was waiting for them to revolutionize the SUV market with a true sports-utility electric vehicle. I would have been in line to buy one. Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing contraption that is a total let-down. That's when I ceased to be interested in Tesla.

For a number of reasons we recently purchased a used two-year-old low-mileage BMW. For a little more money we got extended coverage that takes care of everything for seven years. We even covered the (expensive) tires.

We could have bought more than one fully-covered low-mileage certified-pre-owned BMW for the cost of a single Tesla.

My wife ran over something and punctured a tire a couple of months ago. Being a "run flat" tire, she drove to the nearest BMW dealer. They gave her a loaner car for the day and, for a $50 deductible, replaced the $500 tire and cleaned and washed her car.

So I read an article like this and my first reaction is: Who are they trying to fool?

ulfw• 12 years ago

You're absolutely spot on. Sadly you are getting downvoted for it.

warfangle2• 12 years ago

Instead they are putting out a bullshit Gucci gull-wing contraption that is a total let-down.

What's a let-down about it? Legitimately curious.

pjc50• 12 years ago

They've not made a SUV because they tend to be inefficient due to their size and weight.

Starting at the top end of the market and providing limited options is the Apple approach, likely to lead to profit but not necessarily market share.

NickM2• 12 years ago

Not that I'm disputing your point, but I think a lot of people make assumptions about EV batteries that aren't necessarily true. Nobody really knows for sure right now, but I think it's very possible that a Tesla battery pack might last for quite a long time.

I know in the past I've thought "hey, my iPod battery lost most of its capacity after five years, I guess li-ion batteries just don't have that much longevity." What I didn't know at the time was that different types of lithium ion battery chemistries yield drastically different lifespans. Studies have also repeatedly shown that temperature makes an enormous difference to longevity, and the Model S has a pretty fancy HVAC system designed to keep the battery within an optimum temperature range as much as possible.

Again, I agree with you that it's hard to really have any idea what the resale value will be in the future. But if we're guessing blindly, I don't think it's totally unreasonable to make an optimistic guess.

dave1619• 12 years ago

Resale value in 5+ years out should be very good. I've been watching the used market for over a year and it's been very, very strong. There's not much used inventory being sold and owners seem to love the Model S's.

The other factor with resale is that the Model S is light years ahead of any other cars in terms of technology. So, in 5 years the current center console of the Model S will still be far superior in terms of user experience than any other car in the market IMO. This will help resale value.

Another point is that current users are experiencing very little degradation on their batteries, even after 20-30k miles of usage. After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity and this will help resale as well.

Also, with EVs in general you are buying not just the car but the battery. Think of it as you're buying your future gasoline with the car purchase (of course this isn't a perfect analogy because you still need to pay for electricity), so that's why EVs tend to have fairly good resale value.

Lastly, Tesla demonstrated a battery swap (in less than a few minutes) last year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5V0vL3nnHY). They've hinted that eventually you'll be able to upgrade your pack by paying the difference in value between your used pack and the new pack. No details have come out on this as of yet.

pbreit4• 12 years ago

"After 5 years/70k miles, the battery will probably still be at 95% capacity"

No way. I'd say you have 75% tops (probably less with 70k miles). And unless you pre-buy a new battery you're going to be looking at a $20-30k replacement cost. Also note that it will likely be out of warranty at that point. And that Tesla values them at roughly $1 per mile (the price they give you for purchasing a loaner).

outworlder• 12 years ago

Don't forget Tesla's guaranteed resale value.

aresant• 12 years ago

Which is:

"Tesla’s Resale Value Guarantee allows owners to sell their Model S back to Tesla between the end of months 36 and 39, regardless of the loan’s term. The resale amount is specified at the time of delivery and is forecasted to be higher than any high volume premium sedan brand (Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar or Lexus). This value is equal to 50% of the original base purchase price of the 60 kWh Model S plus 43% of the original purchase price for all of the options, including the upgrade to the 85 kWh battery pack (exclusive of taxes, fees, and accessories)."

More here http://www.teslamotors.com/financing/faq

samstave• 12 years ago

How does battery replacement work when you're supposedly pulling up to a station and a robot is installing a new batt to the underbelly of the car?

Shouldn't all batteries be "Netflix for tesla batteries" whereby you simply rent them?

api• 12 years ago

In the long run EVs have the potential to be radically cheaper than gasoline cars: fewer moving parts, etc.

giarc2• 12 years ago

Why exclude all North American manufacturers? I was hoping the author would address the exclusion.

Deusdies• 12 years ago

Well, generally the North American car manufacturers produce cars of much poorer quality compared to the Japanese, Korean, and European car makers.

encoderer• 12 years ago

You're not looking at accurate data. Try again.

And if it's anecdotal quality you're speaking of, try again there too.

I drive a German car, I'm not an American car apologist, but there's no question that the "big 3" have stepped-up their game.

Not to mention, all the Japanese, Korean and even some European cars you mention are actually built in the US.

runako• 12 years ago

I think this is a dated perception. JD Power shows a fair showing of American cars in its 2013 initial quality study:

http://autos.jdpower.com/ratings/quality/cars.htm

gtaylor2• 12 years ago

Citation needed.

Ford seems to have really cleaned up their act the last 3-5 years. I'm still a bit wary of Dodge/Chevy/GM, but have been super impressed with Ford. Granted, Ford did stink it up something ferocious in the early-mid 2000's.

Completely anecdotal, but we bought a 2012 focus last year and have been incredibly happy with it. Far more than with the Honda Civic it replaced. We run the wheels off our cars, and it's been a real trooper. Good gas mileage, easy to work on, cheap to repair/maintain.

giarc2• 12 years ago

As others have replied, that is perhaps an antiquated perception.

I think the theory also comes from the fact that the Big 3 seem to have many more recalls than foreign companies. However in recent years, Toyota has actually recalled more cars than any other company [1]. Recalls are most often initiated by the company and not the government and therefore stats can change depending on the willingness of the company to start a recall (as seen by GMs recent problems). Anecdotally, the Asian car manufacturers rarely ever publicly announced recalls and would simply perform the recall when you took your car in for service. Therefore customers never knew there were issues and they were branded as "reliable" cars when perhaps they shouldn't have been.

1. http://articles.latimes.com/2014/feb/04/autos/la-fi-hy-toyot...

not_that_noob3• 12 years ago

As much as I admire Elon and Tesla, Consumer Reports rated Audi clean diesel at a cheaper cost per mile than Tesla. So the comparison I'd really like to see is Tesla against the Audis.

dmishe• 12 years ago

What exactly did they measure for "cost per mile"? I have an audi tdi and it's a great machine for trips, but tesla is much more expensive up front :)

rsync• 12 years ago

What is the value of not participating in a retrograde technological movement ?

What is the value of not having a car that looks brand new and modern with your eyes, and sounds like a chitty-chitty-bang-bang set piece with your ears ?

I just got back from Zurich where I saw brand new MY 2014 A6 and A8 cars driving around ... with TDI ... and they sounded like props from an old railroad farce.

(full disclosure - I own a gasoline powered A8 currently, so there's no hating going on here ... except against diesel)

not_that_noob3• 12 years ago

In the early days of the automobile, both electric and non-electric propulsion systems were actively researched and developed - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicle

So Tesla stands as the most recent and the coolest of a long line of electric cars. Just as they have refined the concept of an electric automobile, the latest diesel technology that Audi is incorporating is a refined clean-buring diesel technology without the baggage of the old smokers.

So I'm not sure which retrograde technological movement you have in mind.

not_that_noob3• 12 years ago

My bad - I misremembered - this is the quote from CR: "When it comes to efficiency, the Tesla is a runaway. The A7 gets an impressive 28 mpg overall, but the Model S delivers the equivalent of 84 mpg. That translates into only 4.4 cents per mile for the Tesla (based on an electricity rate of 11 cents per kilowatt- hour) vs. 14.3 cents for the Audi (based on diesel costing $4.00 per gallon)."

As you were.

EDIT: Ok I now remember why I misremembered. The delta in operating cost is about 10 cents/mile. The delta in price is $18,755 (ignoring rebates, credits, etc.). So you would have to drive 187,550 miles for the Tesla to come out ahead. In other words, the TDI A7 is at a similar TCO to the Tesla, but with extended range and quick fueling.

TylerE• 12 years ago

And then you can look at something like the BMW 328d that is "only" $42k and gets 43mpg, or a VW Golf TDI (Disclaimer: I own one) for around $27k and 40-45mpg in the real world.

FWIW, my lifetime actual fuel costs have $0.110/mi over almost 40,000 miles, and that's based on basiclly worst possible variables... auto transmission instead of a stick, hot climate (lots of A/C usage, which is about a 2-5mpg ding), and lots of city driving.

skywhopper• 12 years ago

What's up with the font on this site? In Google Chrome on Windows 7 it's nearly unreadable. Most of the internal horizontal strokes are just missing from the letters.

mark-r• 12 years ago

Also using Google Chrome on Windows 7, and no problems here. Chrome reports the font as Open Sans, 14px.

lucb1e• 12 years ago

I haven't used Windows for close to a year, but last time I used Chrome on Windows 7 the font rendering was horrible more often than not. Especially blogs, they often want to have their own look with some web font (which then tells google exactly who is visiting the site -- but whatever). They always rendered horrible and I complained about it to a few sites, which then changed it, but complaining to individuals doesn't scale of course.

justinph• 12 years ago

I'm surprised a Prius V was not included in this matrix. It would seem to fit favorably within the range of features the OP was looking for, but also is efficient, low maintenance, and safe.

I love Tesla, but they are just not there yet on cost.

r00fus• 12 years ago

I'd second this, but as someone who loves hybrids/EVs, I am very disappointed that a minivan class hybrid doesn't exist in the US (it does in Japan: Toyota Estima Hybrid is apparently a hybrid Sienna). Was forced to buy a standard minivan (we chose Sienna) as the PriusV is too small for our needs.

lafar6502• 12 years ago

- How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives?

- What about the 'guaranteed' buyback option? I'd be afraid that a buyback will be the only option to sell your old Tesla, because they won't be re-sellable on a free market without a costly hw/sw upgrade that can be done ONLY by Tesla.

- There's no way to reduce your costs by using third party replacement parts or batteries.

- A single failure can ruin your ROI calculations because the repair costs are hard to predict.

- The market for used Teslas is limited to areas where the charging network is available

takeda• 12 years ago

How do you service your Tesla? Do you have to go to Tesla-authorized shop or can you do it in any workshop? How does it affect repair and maintenance costs if you have no alternatives?

There's not much to service, and normally you should do it once a year. The mechanics currently don't have schematics for Model S so it probably feels better to have it fixed at the company. I would imagine that you could get brakes replaced at your local mechanic, but I can't think of anything else they could do with it.

For example Tesla doesn't even have ODB-II port for diagnostics (it was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet). Things like that make the car is very different and the mechanic might know less about the car than yourself.

manacit• 12 years ago

    It was recently revealed that instead of CanBus they use Ethernet

If you're referring to the thread on teslamotorsclub.com[1], they are not using Ethernet for any sort of communication aside from infotainment and there is definitely a CAN bus[2].

There's been speculation that UDP broadcasts from the CAN bus are carried over that network as well, but it's almost certainly used for displaying information and informing various non-essential systems.

[1] http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28185-Successf...

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7535589

fps• 12 years ago

Modern japanese made internal-combustion engines are pretty much zero maintenance at this point; in my case, over 8 years and a combined 200K miles on a Nissan and a Toyota, the engines have gotten oil and timing belt changes and that's it. Zero mechanical engine problems at all. The Subaru and Acura I had for 5 years before that were the same. However, I've had to deal with brakes, suspension, tires, climate control, airbag, electronics, etc problems much more frequently, and those issues would happen just as often on a Tesla. Possibly more often because all of those systems are much more complex on a Tesla than the systems I have. Can I get the tesla air suspension serviced at my local mechanic? How about the computerized heater controls?

dangrossman• 12 years ago

Regarding the market for resale, look at Roadsters and Model S on eBay. The market for 5 year old EVs seems pretty healthy. The batteries lose ~0.15% capacity per 1000 miles driven; nearly all 5-year-old Roadsters have over 85% of thir original range. Why would that change 5 years from now? Tesla would be shooting itself in the foot to do anything to purposely damage the resale market for their cars; that'd lower the value for new ones.

Why do you think you need to live in an area with a charging network to buy a Tesla car? Its range, equivalent to most gas cars, gives you many days of typical driving between charges. Unlike gas cars, you can "fill up" at home, there are no external dependencies. You'll also never suffer in a fuel shortage, which my area had several times before winter storms this season.

bri3d• 12 years ago

Keep in mind that the Roadster is an extremely limited-production, high-end niche car that is no longer manufactured.

Its value/depreciation curve will look very different from a still-manufactured luxury sedan of a previous generation, which is what the Model S will be in 3-5 years when Tesla release a new style.

tasty_freeze• 12 years ago

First: "I'd only purchased 3 cars before in my life. A Toyota Camry, that I drove for 12 years. ... A Honda Odyssey, that we had owned for 6 years. And a Nissan Leaf, that we had owned for 3 years. "

Then: "The RAV4 EV, which we had just purchased, decimated the pack."

These two statements aren't compatible. Or somehow I am repeatedly misreading what he is saying.

js23• 12 years ago

Just to throw some maintenance numbers out there since I happen to own a 2003 Odyssey with over 170k miles and I've kept track of the costs in a spreadsheet. So far I've spent just under $10k in maintenance.

The big annoying charge was ~ $4200 at 110k miles in 2010. The transmission failed, so this charge was for a Honda remanufactured transmission and PCM, plus the 105k maintenance (new timing belt).

The other significant charges are brakes and tires. It's almost $1k to replace the tires and brake rotors, which on this vehicle have been around every 50k miles.

SWAG at fuel costs: 170k / 20 mpg * $3 ~ $25k.

mrfusion• 12 years ago

Isn't that early for the transmission to fail?

dnissley• 12 years ago

Not for that generation of Odyssey. My parents have one and the transmission just had to have major work at around ~130k.

js23• 12 years ago

Yes, but not uncommon for that generation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honda_Odyssey_(North_America)#T...

I probably won't purchase a Honda again.

southphillyman• 12 years ago

These are dealership prices I assume. Warrantied work at a third party repair shop would have probably been almost half as expensive. $1K to replace tires and brakes on a honda? Sheesh

Credentials: Owner of a 2002 Honda with 210K miles on it currently.

js23• 12 years ago

Dealership on the 105k maintenance. Tires/brakes have been a one of the tire chain stores. But yeah, four new Michelins, rotors, pads, brake fluid flush, alignment, taxes, it's $800-$1k.

stretchwithme• 12 years ago

I plugged some more realistic values into Tesla's TCO page and it still is way more expensive than what the 14 year old Toyota I drive :-)

  http://www.teslamotors.com/true-cost-of-ownership

anxman• 12 years ago

As a 2013 Model S owner, even I am skeptical of the OP's calculation. The big "what if", as mentioned by other posters, is the depreciation value of the vehicle. EV vehicles typically depreciate more quickly than ICE vehicles and we don't have enough trailing sales data to know appropriate numbers yet.

That being said, I love everything about Tesla and even if the car depreciates more quickly than a Mercedes or BMW, I'd still be happy with it.

jstultz2• 12 years ago

I'm skeptical of his estimated electricity cost; as a Bay Area resident, $0.12/kwh seemed low, so at first I thought he might be in an area of the country with lower energy costs, but he states he's actually in Silicon Valley.

I'm not sure how his particular usage and rates compare, but the rates for my most recent PG&E bill are as follows:

$0.13627 for the first 487.20 kWh $0.15491 for the next 146.6 kWh $0.31949 for the next 340.9 kWh and then up.

In my area, according to my bill, average household usage (for the past month) is 400kWh, and 250kWh for "efficient homes." I'd imagine average use is higher in the summer months due to air conditioning, etc, and higher in the winter months due to heating and lighting.

So, right off the bat, $0.12/kWh is low, but perhaps rates were a bit lower when he did this analysis, or he lives in an area with cheaper rates? But let's assume that he's an efficient user of electricity, and uses 250 kWh/month for things aside from the car. He estimated 15k miles per year, at 3 miles/kWh, that's 416 kWh per month, which works out to roughlly $65.50/month, or $785/year, not $600.

If we instead assume he's an average user in a home that's not "efficient", it goes way up to roughly $92/month, or about $1100/year.

Obviously I don't know this person's exact rates for electricity, or his usage, and it may be the case that there are credits associated with having an electric car that can bring his average rates down or prevent him from going into the higher tiers (as he said, he could often charge for free at work), but regardless an estimate of $0.12/kWh seems strikingly low. I'm sure there are areas of the country where that's reasonable, or even high, but I don't think the Bay Area is one of them.

Of all the cost analyses of Tesla ownership that I've seen (admittedly few), I have yet to see one that attempts to take into account the higher marginal electricity cost associated with using significantly more electricity.

stcredzero2• 12 years ago

Maybe he lives in Alameda?

jstultz2• 12 years ago

Do you mean Alameda county, or actually on Alameda, the island? If the former, I live in Alameda county, so that wouldn't explain it. If Alameda the island, why would costs be lower there? (honest question)

eatporktoo• 12 years ago

He is also not taking into account the transmission fee for each kWh. For me that is 7 cents per kWh which takes my electricity from 12 cents to 19 cents.

analyst74• 12 years ago

I've also been very interested in true ownership cost of cars, and what I noticed is that for new cars, cost of depreciation overshadows all other costs combined for the first 2~3 years, longer for luxury brands.

So there is no point calculating the TCO of new car over more than 3 years, because if you are OK driving an old car, it's always much cheaper to buy used.

pjschlic• 12 years ago

Am I missing something here? I tried to use his number to run a net present value assessment of a few example cars and came up with wildly different numbers of NPV. I think a Tesla is cool, but if you are trying to save money by buying a 93k Tesla rather than a 50k BMW, you might not be saving all you think you are (assuming a 3% depreciation factor for future money, I didn't see what he was using, looking only at the year 8 when the car is sold back):

Tesla S85:

[year one] 93,970+8222+1170

[Tax break] -(10000/1.03)

[resale] -(30,160/(1.03^8))

[electricity and maintenance] +(600/1.03)+(1900/1.03)+(600/1.03^2)+(650/1.03^3)+(650/1.03^4)+(1300/1.03^5)+(1300/1.03^6)+(1350/1.03^7)+(1350/1.03^8)

= -78383 NPV

BMW 382d (ICE with greatest depreciation / maintenance):

[Year one] 50000+4480+1200

[Resale] -(15000/(1.03^8))

[Gas and maintenance] +(1594/1.03)+(1631/1.03^2)+(1669/1.03^3)+(1706/1.03^4)+(2288/1.03^5)+(4327/1.03^6)+(2365/1.03^7)+(2404/1.03^8)

= -59385 NPV

Did I make a mistake here?

Tesla Model S – Cost of Ownership vs. Honda Odyssey

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