Where Working-Age Americans Are Moving

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2013/12/19/where-working-age-americans-are-moving/

by kansas_one • 13 years ago

58 88 13 years ago

xfour• 13 years ago

Well, isn't that kind-of sad. Basically what I read into this is that when you need to provide for more than yourself, good luck being able to afford space in a desirable location. Off to riverside or sacramento for you.

delinka• 13 years ago

I think "desirable location" changes when you gain intimate relationships and dependents.

mathattack6• 13 years ago

Exactly. Once you have kids, "Having a cool bar with craft brews nearby" and "Fun concerts" pale in comparison to "Having a public school nearby that actually educates kids."

I think this is much more important than rental prices.

hosh2• 13 years ago

I am curious: may I ask, are you speaking from experience?

mathattack6• 13 years ago

Young people, it should be expected, tend to be less sensitive to ultra-high rents

Is this really true? I was hyper-sensitive to rent just out of school. Every $100/month difference meant something I would have to write out of my life. Perhaps it's more true that very young people don't mind cramming 6 people in a house or apartment meant for 3.

This doesn't discount the conclusion, though of older people leaving cities like NY, but I think that's more about poor educational options for kids, rather than higher sensitivity to rent.

3pt14159• 13 years ago

It is true for me. I got out of school (where I had to work my way through, no loans from the Gov due to my parent's income level) and I was finished scrimping and scraping. $55k a year back then was a dream and where I lived was the most important thing to me.

nilkn3• 13 years ago

I think it has more to do with the fact that if you're young, unmarried, with no dependents, you don't need much more than a studio or 1br apartment. You don't need to be zoned to decent schools or pay for private school and day care. You don't need a vehicle suitable for family trips (or, in some cases, you may not need a vehicle at all). Consequently, if you have a high-paying job, you have a lot more breathing room to pay more on rent.

sliverstorm2• 13 years ago

Also important, when you are young and unencumbered, there's not much stopping you from moving every year. So what if rent is going to be a little high this year? Just move somewhere cheaper next year if it becomes a problem.

kd0amg• 13 years ago

I suspect there are some confounding factors here. Most people I know would rather rent for $1000/month and have a good job in the city than rent for $300/month in a small town where nobody's hiring.

humanrebar5• 13 years ago

The article isn't contrasting living in the woods with living in the city. It's contrasting living in Orlando with living in Silicon Valley.

They're both cities and they're both hiring.

logfromblammo• 13 years ago

You left out the option where the person has a good job yet still lives in the small town.

I'm not sure why, but some companies are willing to waste a lot of their revenues fighting an increased cost of living in some places, just for the prestige of the address.

Apple has enough money in the bank to make their own Celebration, Florida, like Disney did. Why buy expensive space in someone else's crummy old city, when you can buy land cheaply, build your own town, and sell off the pieces at much higher prices?

pogden• 13 years ago

We can't really measure how important something is in absolute terms, only the decisions people make. There's usually a trade-off between rent and the catch-all 'amenities', and most would agree that young people are much more sensitive to these amenities.

aianus• 13 years ago

When you're young you need very little space. I lived on a couch in Manhattan for four months and am currently living in a bunk bed in SF.

crazygringo• 13 years ago

Also, young people are much more open to not having cars.

When you realize that, in walking cities with "ultra-high" rents, you can subtract the cost of car+gas+insurance+parking (and just tack back on the cost of your MetroCard), it's a different way of thinking about it.

asc123• 13 years ago

New York?

mrfusion3• 13 years ago

I'm always on the lookout for somewhere in the US with a climate like San Diego but a low cost of living.

That's where I want to move. Any ideas?

joshuahedlund• 13 years ago

You want a place with characteristics in high demand with the costs of something that is lower demand? Economics says 'good luck', unless you can essentially arbitrage it by finding something that most people don't know about!

humanrebar5• 13 years ago

San Diego has a very special climate. It's basically a desert with moderate temperatures due to being on the coast. Despite its latitude, it doesn't get tropical storms very often due to the ocean currents surrounding it.

I guess that's a long way of saying you're not going to find another Southern California in the continental United States, let alone a cheaper one.

EDIT: The reason Brick from Anchorman is dumb is because he's the weatherman. The subtle joke (maybe the only one in the film) is that the weather in San Diego is so consistently nice that you can be as dumb as a brick and still be a weatherman in San Diego.

buckbova2• 13 years ago

San Diego is a great place to live and work. How "low cost" are you talking? There are areas of SD that are less expensive like East County in the South or Escondido in the North. It's always a tradeoff.

hkarthik3• 13 years ago

It's actually hard to beat San Diego in a few respects:

1) The weather is just perfect all year long.

2) The cost of living, while high, isn't insane compared to places like the Bay Area or NYC.

3) The public schools are actually quite good in many of the areas without being far flung from the city.

The big downside, however, is that there just aren't many local jobs for techies. The few that exist pay very little compared to the ones in the Bay Area or even a little further north in LA despite the cost of living being on the high side.

My wife and I have talked about moving there for a while (we both work from home) but the big challenge is that we'd have to find other income streams (in addition to our day jobs) to fund a good lifestyle in San Diego. In the face of a pretty tepid local job market and challenges with remote work pay being lower, that seems to be a requirement to make it out there.

mrfusion3• 13 years ago

How much extra income would you need?

nicholas73• 13 years ago

I'm no expert in the SD job market, but my feeling is that there are many tech jobs but not the kind HN people are thinking of. There are large bio and defense industries there, along with some hardware companies like Qualcomm. It's definitely not a software haven though. I actually worked in SD in defense at graduation - I wouldn't say the pay was worse than the Bay, unless you were a rockstar Ruby ninja.

mikestew2• 13 years ago

Yeah, everyone else wants to move to a place like that, too, myself included. Which is why you won't find anywhere like that in the US with a low cost of living. San Diego is also somewhat unique. 72F and dry year-round? Other than San Diego I'd be hard-pressed to think of such a place.

ssimpson• 13 years ago

San Antonio is a bit warmer but much cheaper cost of living. We have a growing tech community and all and all it is a really nice place to live.

hosh2• 13 years ago

The article is looking at the cohort data assuming that the leading edge of the Millennial cohort (at least, according to this way of divvying up the generations; I've heard of others) who are currently at the oldest in the early 30s will act like the people who are in the mid-30s: looking to settle down, raise families, find some place cheaper to live, etc.

Is that assumption actually true? What do you guys think?

humanrebar5• 13 years ago

Yes. Biology is a powerful thing.

If millenials go child-free in large numbers, they would be the first American generation to do so. There may be precedents in places like modern Japan, but the culture in Japan is so different that I am hesitant to extrapolate from that data point.

buckbova2• 13 years ago

Any Oregon dwellers out there? How's the tech community in and outside of Portland? Has it been growing or shrinking?

forkandwait• 13 years ago

I think it is growing slowly, partly as a spinoff from SF. If you want a lifestyle, it is a great place, but if you want a career I would suggest paying the rents and going to Seattle/ SF/ wherever.

davidw3• 13 years ago

I grew up there, and while I haven't lived there for some time:

* Eugene is a smallish city with a the University of Oregon. If it played its cards right, it could be something like Boulder. But it doesn't seem like a lot is going on there, and the weather... well, it's pretty grim, like all of western Oregon. In my opinion, 5C and rain is worse than some snow from time to time in terms of 'bad weather'.

* Bend is kind of on the small side to have much going on, but maybe has more than Eugene for its size?

* Southern Oregon - Ashland in particular, is a nice place to live as it's a bit drier than further north, but it's still on the smallish side, and I don't know that there's really much of an 'ecosystem' there. I could see living there if I had a bootstrapped thing going and wanted somewhere cheaper to live that's still nice in some ways.

* Portland is big enough to have a real community, and is a good city for the right kind of person. I can't stand the weather myself.

mikestew2• 13 years ago

I've given a serious look at moving from Seattle/Redmond to somewhere in Oregon outside of Portland. I'd love to live in Eugene. As a runner, that place seems like Disneyland. But as you say, the town doesn't seem to have made much effort to be even a very good college town, let alone have much else going on. I could still live there, but tech jobs are a bit slim.

If anyplace in Oregon were to be Boulder, I'd say Bend has the best shot. Granted, it's an outsider's point of view, but I think it's closer to mountains and at a bit of elevation. Seems like more athletic stuff going on, bigger cycling community and the like. On the downside, it seems as if that main road through town becomes more and more of one giant strip mall. Job-wise, seems like there a few more opportunities than Eugene.

Portland? Plenty going on there, and between Seattle and Portland I'd choose Portland. Seattle wants to be quirky and hip, but doesn't pull it off as well as Portland, IMO. Portland's smaller, too, but seems to have enough going on to satisfy my tastes.

In the end, though, I could find a new job next week in the Seattle area. I lose a job in Eugene or Bend, I'm screwed. That's okay, the Seattle area is nice, too.

callmeed• 13 years ago

I lived in Bend from '07 to '10. It's a great city and I miss it but I don't think it has any shot at being the next Boulder. The weather is better than Eugene but there's no university, its a fairly isolated city, and there's not much of a local startup/tech scene. I could never find a local developer to hire.

I'm in San Luis Obispo CA now and, while the 2 cities are pretty similar in size and other aspects, SLO has a much better tech/startup scene.

sologoub2• 13 years ago

No direct experience with Oregon, but a casual search on indeed.com revealed a bunch of Insurance/Healthcare related tech work. It looks like it has a healthy sector there, but the volumes of open jobs don't seem to compare well to Seattle and definitely not SF. Could be wrong though... this is a very qualitative observation.

poulsbohemian2• 13 years ago

I don't live there, but I live in the general area and try to follow the tech scene there. I think your observations are partially right - there are the usual suspects: Nike, Mentor Graphics, Columbia Sportswear, Intel, etc... BUT, there is a vibrant open source and small software company scene that is partially under the radar - they don't post on the "name brand" job search sites, but if you get hooked into the local tech network, there are lots of great opportunities.

lwhalen• 13 years ago

As a data point, I recently switched jobs to a 100%-remote-working arrangement with a company based in Oregon (Portland). My plans for the next year involve a move from Boston to Flint, MI (family-related reasons), then a direct bounce to the Oregon/Washington area 'just to check it out'. Depending if the job holds, I'll probably stick around there for the change-of-scenery aspect for a few years, then perhaps start considering moving internationally. If it matters, I'm smack dab at the beginning of the article's "30-45" age cohort, no kids, no plans for kids, no desire for kids. I do have a dog and a penchant for playing music with other people though, so that's kind of the same thing, right?

Apropos of nothing, and deeply OT, don't suppose any HNers could recommend a moving company or three that are good at cross-country moves?

pbj• 13 years ago

Check out http://upack.com and http://moveline.com

iamthepieman• 13 years ago

Remote work is going to play a bigger part in where millenials live than it did for previous generations. Remote workers are a tiny fraction of the workforce but I think millenials are more comfortable with it both as employees and employers.

humanrebar5• 13 years ago

Current economics and regulations are encouraging part-time and contract work. If these trends start affecting office careers as much as they affect low-skill jobs, I can see remote work becoming extremely popular.

sologoub2• 13 years ago

This is an interesting article, taking on a complex subject. That said, I really do not see myself moving to the cities that showed the most growth of 35+ cohort...

Close suburbs of the CA cities are definitely an option, even Seattle is not out of the question (oddly, I love rainy weather...), but it seems like the cohorts need some sort of geographic slicing. Where are people moving from to increase the presence of a cohort? I have a hard time imagining that a lot of tech people from SV will pack up and go to New Orleans or Florida. If this is where you are from or have family at, it makes more sense, but I wouldn't expect a large number of people that never lived in those areas/cities, to suddenly want to move there just because they got older/settled down.

An interesting infographic would be to show migration patterns over time, from where you are born, to where you go to college, work, etc. and then retire. For me, I'm expecting a boomerang-looking flow to where I went to high school.

drone2• 13 years ago

Glad to see two great Texas cities in the top ten for the 35+ cohort. Both SA and Houston have been great cities for me, and the other tech workers I know. SA is a beautiful city with lots of great jobs in the security and networking industries, and the economy in Houston continues to rage on, with low cost of living. (It's also worth noting, that most people would find the big population centers in TX a lot more liberal and diverse than they think they are.)

nilkn3• 13 years ago

Houston's a great buy compared to Silicon Valley, but I wouldn't say its cost of living is low on a national scale at all. It's still drastically more expensive than most American cities (it's the 4th largest, after all). Most inner-loop neighborhoods are filled with million dollar homes, most of which are not mansions.

Don't get me wrong, I love Houston. But it's not just a sea of cheap McMansions. There are a lot of very highly paid oil executives, corporate attorneys, and physicians (Texas Medical Center) who can easily afford a $1M+ home so the urban core of the city is really transforming into a much more expensive and exclusive area.

hkarthik3• 13 years ago

I see the same thing happening in Dallas, albeit with healthcare professionals, lawyers, and executives. The urban core is still prohibitively expensive for many, especially those with families.

You really have to get out into the suburbs before housing becomes more approachable. But then you have to add commutes into the city to find interesting work with little to no public transit options.

All the cities in Texas have terrible public transportation with little to no plans to improve it. We're basically headed down the same road as California in this respect which is sad because our regulatory environment is supposedly much better.

drone2• 13 years ago

Yeah, I guess I'm not counting the "buying" of a house as much towards CoL, renting is still fairly inexpensive, assuming you don't want a "luxury apartment," but gas prices (still paying less than $3/gal in my neighborhood), food prices, utilities (let's not talk about the water bill!) & etc. "as compared to other major cities."

That last part is important =) You'll live a lot cheaper in Luling than Houston, but outside of great barbecue, there isn't much going on there.

The inner loop is really expensive for housing stock, definitely, and even it has nothing on the memorial villages! That being said, the whole east side is still pretty cheap. The same house that would cost you $500k in the Heights can be bought for $250k in Eastwood/Idylwood.

benhebert• 13 years ago

After visiting SF / SV earlier this year, I think that a remarkable amount of productivity is gained solely based on the weather. You wake up, it's beautiful outside and you're ready to work. To me it's a major advantage over the Northeast (where I'm from).

I think Austin has to be my #1 city in America that I have left to visit.

mixmastamyk• 13 years ago

Interesting, I find I get more done on gloomy days. Beautiful days make me want to get outside.

michael_h• 13 years ago

I'm always caught off-guard when I hear people describe San Francisco's weather in positive terms. I can see how people might like it, but for me, it's dreadful.

azernik• 13 years ago

The only people who do this are people who came from places with even worse weather (cf. references to the Northeast in your parent comment). People used to e.g. LA or South Bay have a different perspective.

andrewfong• 13 years ago

For a visual representation of state-by-state migration patterns generally, this is a fun graph to poke around: http://vizynary.com/2013/11/18/restless-america-state-to-sta...

_nullandnull_• 13 years ago

Denver gets 300 days of sunshine and Forbes chooses a cloudy picture..

davidf18• 13 years ago

Another interesting metric would be to further define the age categories by income (which correlates to job type). I live in Manhattan and it is a very fun place for singles with lots to do (and if you're Jewish a lot of Jewish cultural and religious activities) and lots of fellow singles to meet for dating and to make friends.

Rent is ridiculously high because of zoning restrictions against construction or limiting building height (which increases housing costs).

csense• 13 years ago

Speaking as an HN'er in one of the "traditional Rust Belt hard-luck cases:" Anyone reading this have any good ideas for ways that areas like mine can improve local economic conditions and better retain or even attract younger folks?

Area politicians are desperate to improve the economy; if you're looking for a new site for a medium-to-large business, especially if you're in a high-tech industry that's perceived as going up instead of going down, you'll likely find the Rust Belt's state and local governments to be quite accomodating.

r00fus• 13 years ago

It's a chicken/egg problem - the reason most businesses stay away is that folks aren't already moving there - and "required infrastructure" i.e., coffee shops, trader joes, etc isn't present.

Those buseinsss and shops don't open there because the demographics aren't there.

The only thing that changes this is when a large organization decides to make things happen and move a significant base of people to that locale. City governments are generally not big enough to convince enough employers to move, and large companies only do this if they get massive tax breaks which can be unpopular with citizens and local businesses (i.e., it's a risky investment - which investors don't like).

Where Working-Age Americans Are Moving

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