3D printing: The PC all over again?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2012/09/3d-printing?fsrc=scn/tw_ec/difference_engine_the_pc_all_over_again_

by bootload • 14 years ago

60 91 14 years ago

dccoolgai• 14 years ago

It's so tempting to say this is just sensationalist hyperbole...but go watch the beginning of "Pirates of Silicon Valley"...the parallels are uncanny.

ChuckMcM• 14 years ago

What I find amusing is that 'robotics' have been "the PC all over again" for a couple of decades at least now :-)

So I don't like the hyperbole, gives folks too much ammo if it doesn't develop quickly. That said though, the same people who were building computers from kits are doing 3D printers, its fun to watch.

iamwil14• 14 years ago

Well, you have to be skeptical for the right reasons. It is true there's both lots of hype and cynicism.

3D printing parallels computers in many ways, but it's important to see how it is different as well. Unlike computers, I currently can't see anything resembling Moore's law. In addition, it may have some version of the "Singer Problem". When sewing machines came out, you could have claimed that everyone would make their own clothes. But we don't. Why don't we?

Or when camcorders first came out in the early 80's, some people were enthused about being able to record their own shows, and talked about how it was going to disrupt traditional media. However, the missing piece they failed to take into account was that there was no method of distribution. It wasn't until Youtube came along that this vision came to be.

That said, I'm enthused about its possibilities. I've got a printer at home, and I've been exploring what it's good for, and so far, I'm optimistic.

thenomad3• 14 years ago

When sewing machines came out, you could have claimed that everyone would make their own clothes. But we don't. Why don't we?

Because making your own clothes still takes bloody ages and a lot of expertise. I've attempted to learn both 3D modeling and clothesmaking in the past, and IMO, 3D modeling was easier. And even a skilled amateur tailor takes a couple of days to make a dress or a suit-equivalent.

If 3D printing only makes Making as easy as tailoring, it's not going to get very far very fast. If it makes it as easy as assembling IKEA furniture, though, we're off to the races.

brianbreslin• 14 years ago

question/poll: at what price point will you buy a 3d printer for your home?

prezjordan2• 14 years ago

$400 with the precision of the MakerBot Replicator 2 (EDIT: 100 micron)

simcop23873• 14 years ago

Replicator 2 is actually at 100 micron not 10. None of the FDM printers can get 10 micron that I'm aware of. The printrbot that I got for $500 I've been able to get to do 200 micron pretty easily (in fact it prints best at 200 micron). Though the printrbot has needed a bit more fiddling than I believe the makerbot systems need, it's certainly heading towards your direction.

simcop23873• 14 years ago

For me it was the 500 dollar mark. So far it's managed to make some trinkets and a car part that didn't exist but I needed to fix the electrical system in a 20 year old car. I wouldn't say it's "paid for itself" yet but it's certainly such an interesting thing that I don't mind.

Kronopath• 14 years ago

"Was"? Where can you find one at the $500 mark?

bootload3• 14 years ago

considering a makerbot2x ~ http://store.makerbot.com/replicator2x.html is $2800 and cheaper than high end laptops, quality of materials like PLA with 100micron resolution, not long ~ http://www.makerbot.com/blog/2012/09/19/high-resolution-make...

ekianjo• 14 years ago

Between 500 and 1000 dollars, most probably. With good speed and precision, if possible, and open tools.

jlgreco• 14 years ago

A I would pay 500USD for a Prusa Mendel or equivalent. More for something more sophisticated.

marshallp• 14 years ago

Once Walmart stocks it. This will easily take off once it's sold like normal printers at retail chains, even at moderately high price points.

DigitalJack• 14 years ago

I'd pay $100. Mainly because I feel no desire to get one. I can think of a couple things I might build with it, but after that, what would be the point?

Call it a failure of imagination on my part, but imagination can be stimulated by inspiration. I haven't seen anything remotely inspiring about home 3d printing so far.

luke_s• 14 years ago

The price I am prepared to pay can be significantly altered by the avaliability of models to print. At the moment I would pay about $250. I've checked through http://www.thingiverse.com/ and have seen a few trinklets that would be fun to print out. My son would probably get a kick out of it. But without content I wouldn't consider spending much money.

However, if the right content was avaliable, I would be willing to spend up to $2500 on a 3d printer.

What is 'the right content'? At the moment, I don't know! 3D printing needs a 'Killer app'. I'm waiting for the 3D printing equivalent of VisiCalc...

iamwil14• 14 years ago

Well, I know a killer app would be if it printed circuits. That's the obvious one, but it's a long ways off. I don't know if there's something before that that's a killer app. There may be.

TylerE2• 14 years ago

$1000.

But only when it can do metal.

Or at least much stronger/better surface finish plastic

sami36• 14 years ago

Has anyone seen this ? it claims to print at 25 microns res & its founders have an impressive pedigree.

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/formlabs/form-1-an-affor...

I have no connection whatsoever to the project besides being a 3D printing enthusiast.

voodoomagicman• 14 years ago

This printer uses photolithography vs FDM used by reprap and makerbot - it works by using a laser to solidify photopolymer. These printers are capable of very high resoltion, but the downside is that their substrate can cost hundreds of dollars / liter.

toomuchtodo4• 14 years ago

Current cost for the Form 1 substrate is ~$150/liter.

toomuchtodo4• 14 years ago

I'm a Kickstarter backer of this; I have the original Makerbot Replication, and decided on this instead of Makerbot's 2.0 version due to the higher precision (25 microns) of the Form 1 version.

jonah• 14 years ago

What are you making with your Makerbot?

mcantelon• 14 years ago

Materials for stereolithic 3D printers, like Formlab's, cost 4 times, from what I've heard, as much as conventional 3D printers.

hospadam• 14 years ago

Honest question: what can average people use 3d printers for realistically? Every time I read more - I want one. But then I try and figure out what kind of thing I'd print. Besides custom chess pieces and my own Legos - am I missing anything? Or are they just for engineers, "builders", and architects.

I know they're expensive now - but lets assume they come down to ~$500 (price point where tablets took off).

sliverstorm2• 14 years ago

All the discussion, press, headlines- they are almost all predicated on the improvement of 3d printers to the degree of being able to print a quality replica of anything you can think of.

epaik2• 14 years ago

I think the greatest use case isn't printing stand-alone objects, but rather replacement parts for existing products. Say, your laptop screen hinge breaks. Instead of ordering a new one from the manufacturer, you could print your own replacement at home.

TylerE2• 14 years ago

The problem with that is that the current tech can't print anything with material that has any sort of reasonable mechanical properties - the stuff is quite fragile.

iamwil14• 14 years ago

That won't be the case until 3D modeling tools get much easier to use. Current 3D modeling tools are either expensive, or hard to use. In addition, most average people aren't versed in thinking about objects in 3D in their minds. There are software like Matterport, where you can scan things, but until you can scan the broken parts, and "glue" it together in software easily, this won't happen.

It's like saying the greatest use case for computers is that you can program your own accounting program to do your own taxes. No. I went to the computer history museum, and they had a model of "easy to use" computer for moms in the kitchen. What was on the controls? Loading and unloading registers. They were completely off the mark on that one.

Chances are, it'll enable makers to offer services that have a real world component that other people can order easily, and enable new kinds of behavior.

stevewilhelm3• 14 years ago

The laptop hinge is probably metal.

The top to my blender is made of two materials, a very soft pliable plastic that is food safe and a ridget clear plastic for the handle.

These two very simple examples have at least three very different materials with very different properties.

It is going to be one very expensive printer that could work with lots of different materials. Even if it could be made cheaply, small batches of each material in custom colors and sizes would also be very expensive.

jeffool• 14 years ago

I'm with you, but I have a cousin who makes a similar comment with a slight difference. He says if he could get one that could print very hard materials (for mechanical parts to be used in engines, I believe) he'd consider one around $500, just for convenience.

He tells me such printers that can do that definitely exist, but they're just too costly to bother with.

He's the kind of guy with a spare building out back full of broken things people give him. They collect for five months, and then in the span of one he realizes he's accumulated enough stuff to fix a few projects, and churns them out. It's funny how he'll have a hole in the wall of the building, a pontoon boat, and a car or two out there... And then a week later all the vehicles have been fixed, returned, and he's now got a new wall, paint job, refrigerator, and fan for his building.

wlesieutre• 14 years ago

Any idea what those printers use? I've heard of C&C machines carving hard parts out of blocks of metal, but 3D printing them would be really cool.

ramblerman• 14 years ago

I think similar questions were asked of the early PCs. Specifically 'personal' and 'home use' seemed absurd.

That being said, I have no idea what I'd do with a 3d printer.

stevewilhelm3• 14 years ago

Early PC's had word processing and spreadsheets. They were immediately useful. Checkout WordPerfect, pfs:Write, Lotus 123, and VisiCalc on Wikipedia.

iamwil14• 14 years ago

When computers first came out and you found out about the internet, you might have wanted one. And you could say, hey, that's awesome, but at most, I can chat and email with other nerds. I can't figure out what else I'd do with it. I don't think anyone could have predicted twitter, facebook, and wikipedia back in 1980's.

Same with mobile phones. I remember when they came out in the 90's, the common use case cited was that when you walked by, starbucks would message you a coupon based on your location based services, or that you can leave location based messages for people to discover, like a cache-box. Turns out, people want to instagram, foursquare, and uber.

I think it is the same with a 3D printer. People often cite that you can replace parts around your home. Or other people might say it's only for makers and tinkerers. I don't think that'll be the main use case. It's so new that we can only make analogies of what we'd do with it. But in actuality, it would probably enable new kinds of behavior.

shabble• 14 years ago

pretty sure the major selling point of mobile phones was to have a phone, that was mobile. They existed in various forms before the 90s, but were far too bulky and expensive for popular use; it was the reduction in those factors which resulted in the original uptake wave.

Not to mention that they were backwards compatible (and useful) even if not everyone had one - they were still able to call/be called from landline phones, albeit expensive.

rat87• 14 years ago

As far as I can figure out:

- various "cool looking art pieces" including interesting looking costume jewelry.

- "action figures" without moving parts/transformation. Possibly for series that don't have licenced models, or fan models or just being cheap.

- Useful things without moving parts such as phone/tablet stands, photo frames, food holders, etc.

- individual moving parts- such as centrifuges, cogs, perhaps for some sort of rube goldberg machines

I think a lot of people are hoping both that the technology improves to allow more types of creations and that a successful market for printers will lead to a healthy blueprint market which will think up new innovative uses.

iamwil14• 14 years ago

There's also another: parts for 3D printers or upgrades.

But I think the common theme is stuff that you would never find in a Target or Walmart, because the cost of production is high enough that people wouldn't have taken the risk to make wacky and wild things.

Just as with blogs and the democratization of online publishing or youtube with online videos, you get lots of wacky and wild blogs/videos (or as some would say, weird crap), but out of the weird crap are lots of gems. You'd never get Charlie bit my finger, Cat videos, etc greenlighted on HBO, and yet, Youtube has demonstrated those things entertains millions.

I think the same will happen with these objects. At first, there will be a lot of copying of things that we already know, like replacement parts, shower rings, art pieces. Things that traditional manufacturing is better at. But once we discover what 3D printing is really good at, we'll probably see objects for uses we've never seen before.

thenomad3• 14 years ago

For "Action Figures" read also "Miniatures And Board Game Pieces". 3D printing will be a boon for anyone developing their own board games, and a nightmare for wargaming companies like Games Workshop that survive by selling things that can now be 3D printed.

bootload3• 14 years ago

"... Honest question: what can 'average people' use 3d printers for realistically? ..."

jquery2• 14 years ago

8088/DOS 1.0 were useful as personal computers. Right now 3D printers don't justify their cost--why buy a $5k printer when you can just contract someone else to print for you?

Along those lines, 3D printers seem to be in the "mainframe" era. I.e., it'll bring down costs for commodities such as toys and cheap plastic parts (like mainframes brought down costs for accounting-like work), but they're years away off from changing up day-to-day life, even for nerds interested in them.

msds• 14 years ago

Your assumption has already really come to pass - my school's printer club is building >30 of them with a $250 price point. Assembly/labor cost should turn out to be trivial, add 25% handling cost, add another 25% profit margin, and you're still under $400 for a device that certainly rivals most $1000-5,000 commercial models. Such a cool machine: foolproof mechanism and folds up to ~8.5x11x4" but has the same build area as most RepRap Prusa Mendels.

primitur• 14 years ago

I make my own modular synthesizers, for fun and creativity.

For me, 3D printing represents a chance to build a synth panel of my absolute dreams. Not just knobs, but levers, dials, and so on. The recent revelation that Teenage Engineering were giving away the 3D models of their synth knob accessories was really interesting, to me at least.

So, there's that.

Also, I make model airplanes, RC stuff. I have a small list of about 12 things I want to be able to 3d print myself, instead of purchasing - engine mounts, aileron/rudder assemblies, custom frames for mounting a camera, and so on.

So I'm just waiting to get the space (and a bit more $$$) before I set up with a 3D printer in my workshop somewhere, and start making my own parts and things. In the meantime, a local hackershop provides access to this wonderful tech ..

JumpCrisscross• 14 years ago

Are there any 3D printers that can print, amongst other substrates, conductive layers? It would open up a whole world of 3D chip design to amateurs.

sliverstorm2• 14 years ago

As a hobbyist, your bigger problem is going to be accuracy, not capability. Unless someone comes up with some cool tricks (like the self-aligning gates in photolithography), you are going to need some fancy hardware to achieve chip-like printing resolutions.

Edit: apparently, photolithography has been applied to 3d printing. If the photolithography equipment is not expensive, this may be less of an issue.

Tuna-Fish• 14 years ago

In a word: Yes.

http://hackaday.com/2012/05/22/3d-printed-circuit-boards-usi...

iamwil14• 14 years ago

Yes. The reprappers are making strides in this direction. There's also conductive ABS plastic.

http://www.repraper.com/goods.php?id=172

http://blog.reprap.org/search/label/Printing%20Conductors

http://blog.reprap.org/2012/04/some-more-printed-circuitry.h...

However, you're thinking too far ahead. The current home printers don't have the resolution to print circuits on the scale of a chip. You could probably do it, but the chip would be basic, and quite big and slow.

potatolicious• 14 years ago

I'm quite willing to settle for just printing PCBs at home. There are low-volume PCB printing services but they are still quite expensive, not to mention slow to turn around. There is a strong space here for a 3D printer to come in.

31reasons• 14 years ago

I want one food printer.

Mordor• 14 years ago

Yeah, one which can print gummy bears :)

Bjorkbat• 14 years ago

So, they're saying that the 3D printer is like the PC in that it's one big piracy box?

I'm disappointed, but I guess all the speculation about how the 3D printer will change our lives for the better has been covered by now.

stevewilhelm3• 14 years ago

I'll buy a 3D printer when I can print all the pieces to build a Nerf N-Strike Elite Hail Fire http://s831.us/hail-fire for under forty dollars worth of materials and it can be printed and assembled in under three hours.

I picked this item because it was featured in the Wired magazine article right after their "3D printers are the next PC" article.

bluedanieru• 14 years ago

I'm similar, except replace 'Nerf N-Strike Elite Hail Fire' with '3D printer' (and I'm a bit more flexible on raw materials cost).

angersock2• 14 years ago

Personally, I think that the 3D printer fad is going to sideline itself before it ever reaches court in any significant way. Why, you ask?

Because people are lazy. I see farmers using these, I see clever immigrants and poor nations, sure.

But mainstream middle America? Probably not. How many people have a home lathe, mill, or drill press? Hell, how many even have basic power tools (circular saw, hand drill, jigsaw, and so on)?

How many people write code for the machines they own? The computer (despite how we may treat it even today) is hardly new technology, nor two decades later is the Internet.

I'm sorry to be such a downer, but I think that the vast consumerist masses will probably not ride a fleet of these gizmos into a post-scarcity future.

milesskorpen2• 14 years ago

A 3D printer is potentially a hell of a lot easier to use than a home lathe, mill or drill press — you download a design, and hit print. Next thing you know, you've printed out all the pieces of a chair for your living room, which you assemble using the pegs and screw you also printed out (think Ikea). This isn't too far-fetched.

kumarm• 14 years ago

I have a different view on this. Future manufacturing is 90% 3D Printing. But its not about printing at your house. You get your orders printed at local mall and shops that has the right equipment (Only raw materials transported).

angersock2• 14 years ago

This makes a great deal of sense to me--I imagine on-demand manufacturing working very well, outside of the home, for the reasons that I think it won't be popular inside the home: somebody else does the work.

icelancer• 14 years ago

This will definitely be the first major breakthrough; we see it already at local hackerspaces who do design-for-pay. It will only get more popular and cheaper as processes improve.

danboarder• 14 years ago

3D printers will get fast. We don't think twice about printing on paper now; in the future you'll print out a recyclable mug for your morning coffee. Why have cabinets full of dishes when you can print a custom color set for tonights dinner? Wash and recycle, no storage needed.

thenomad3• 14 years ago

Mugs? Ooh, now, this is interesting.

2 questions:

1) Can an affordable 3D printer actually print a mug that's safe to drink out of? (Doesn't leech nasty chemicals into your coffee, doesn't melt and dump boiling tea on your genital area?)

2) Are there any 3D printers that can also paint the surface of what they print yet?

adamfeldman• 14 years ago

What about the energy costs?

rsaarelm2• 14 years ago

I can't think of regular uses I'd have for present-day 3D printers, but I do appreciate the "1970s affordable microcomputer" comparison. I'd have a hard time thinking of an use for an Altair 8800 too.

Printing clothes would be one killer app for me (everyone needs them, they wear out, the design variety space is huge), but I don't see how you'd go from the current tech into something that can do clothes.

mtgx• 14 years ago

I don't see why it should be that hard. There are already those machines that make the material. You just need to make one that can take a virtual model from the PC and "build it".

rsaarelm2• 14 years ago

The "building it" for clothes currently involves cutting and sewing the material. I don't see how that would be very easy to do with a machine with anywhere close to as few degrees of freedom as a 3D printer.

I suppose you could try to make the thing extrude the cloth already weaved in a closed loop, like doing a sock by extruding concentric woven circles and tapering them off to the tip. Then if you could split the circle into two or three you could try to do shirts and pants.

iamwil14• 14 years ago

There's been a little headway in this regard. Here's a 3D printed bikini.

http://news.globalintimatewear.com/Mechanisms/7037/Shapeways...

3D printing: The PC all over again?

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