US moves closer to underground testing of nuclear weapons without any explosions

https://qz.com/us-moves-closer-to-underground-testing-of-nuclear-weapo-1850904934

42 55 3 years ago

tpmx3• 3 years ago

Scientists call it “tickling the dragon’s tail," Custer said, because the experiment approaches but stays below the stage at which the fission of nuclear materials sustains an ongoing series of chain reactions.

According to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core Feynman was the person behind that expression.

Scientists referred to this flirting with the possibility of a nuclear chain reaction as "tickling the dragon's tail", based on a remark by physicist Richard Feynman, who compared the experiments to "tickling the tail of a sleeping dragon".

nico• 3 years ago

From the Wikipedia article:

The demon core was a sphere of plutonium that was involved in two fatal radiation accidents when scientists tested it as a fissile core of an early atomic bomb
In both cases, an experiment was intended to demonstrate how close the core was to criticality with a tamper, but the core was accidentally put into a critical configuration

That doesn’t sound very reassuring

tpmx3• 3 years ago

You'd imagine they have a learned a bit since then. And it's underground.

neetdeth• 3 years ago

Unpopular opinion: Just bring back testing.

I’ve seen way too many people speculate recently that Russia’s nuclear arsenal possibly doesn’t work. This is incredibly dangerous.

What’s the plan when humanity is so many decades into a test ban that nuclear detonations are a generational memory? Something akin to a myth. The relative stability afforded by MAD doctrine is bound to decline.

justahuman74• 3 years ago

Also: we don't want someone lobbing 10x as many warheads because they only think half work

I think a few countries will feel a bit vulnerable at some point (like Poland/Japan/Australia/SouthKorea) and start to question if concepts like the US umbrella is truly a sufficient deterrent, and probably start their own development/testing

giantg2• 3 years ago

If they're lobbing any, they're probably lobbing most anyways.

nkrisc• 3 years ago

Only launching one 10th of their warheads? What are the saving the other 90% for, exactly? The next nuclear war? A rainy day?

dboreham• 3 years ago

Fair point. Perhaps also worth noting that an "end-to-end" test has been performed by the US exactly once.

tpmx3• 3 years ago

(Twice.)

I find it somewhat incredible from a pure engineering point of view that Trinity worked in the first test and that both Little Boy (Test #2) and Fat Man (Test #3) also worked.

andbberger• 3 years ago

which test was that

bob1029• 3 years ago

I agree.

How long until subcritical experiments need to turn into supercritical ones? At some point you have to do an integration test or no one can say anything of certainty.

Proving a sample of plutonium emits the right dose of radiation when whacked appropriately is a great starting point, but it doesn't validate the rest of the weapon system.

You could test the bombs with inert cores to prove everything outside the physics package is valid, but there is still the "but sometimes" bullshit space where perhaps the core seems good on paper but the neutron initiator has an undue delay related to aging circuitry and we lose 80% of the expected yield. Whatever the case - in isolation both system elements might test OK but they could still fail when combined.

I feel like the dial-a-yield devices are most precarious (e.g. B61). How could you really know you aren't going to over/undershoot massively? What is the range of uncertainty on that system after 3 decades?

D-Coder• 3 years ago

What is the range of uncertainty on that system after 3 decades?

On a NUCLEAR BOMB? Who cares if it's 50% bigger or smaller than expected? These are not precision weapons.

jjoonathan3• 3 years ago

undue delay related to aging circuitry

Instead of a dumb inert core they use a smart inert core that broadcasts precise measurements of the implosion using fiber optics and triboluminescent capsules that flash as the implosion wavefront crushes them. The computer has to broadcast the data before it itself gets crushed microseconds later. But yes, I still share your overall concern even though we can push the question marks one step later in the delicate process.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYdAT0v4DHs

danbruc• 3 years ago

Or just get rid of all nuclear weapons.

oceanplexian3• 3 years ago

If you have some ideas on how to change the laws of physics I’m all ears. Otherwise someone will always be able to build one.

jjoonathan3• 3 years ago

You get to choose what you do, not what the other guy does.

thsksbd4• 3 years ago

And get rid of all guns while your at it.

bayindirh• 3 years ago

Just bring back testing.

...and rolling earthquakes with that. Why not? Great idea.

saboot2• 3 years ago

Would you be comfortable with testing being done near where you live?

Why not? And where would you propose instead?

ceejayoz2• 3 years ago

Why would you test them near where someone lives?

Deep underground in unpopulated areas works fairly well; we learned how to do it without fallout as early as the late 1950s. You're at dramatically greater health risk living downwind of a coal power plant.

bhickey• 3 years ago

While game theory is useful when developing nuclear strategy I don't think anyone takes MAD seriously: It isn't subgame perfect. Once the rockets are up, retaliation is no longer credible... because the purpose of the threat of retaliation is to discourage an attack in the first place.

jowea• 3 years ago

That's what dead's man switch[0] and madman theory are for. Or just human nature, specifically hate and desire for vengeance and punishment I guess.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand

thsksbd4• 3 years ago

MAD is stable because people aren't rational beings and game theory is therefore nuts.

When I have 500 nukes headed my way, I wont stop to think "well, maybe the remaining 10% of my population can scrape by a living as dogs. Lets not retaliate and maybe they wont launch their remaining 500"

Ill think: "fuck 'em m! launch everything we got"

perihelions3• 3 years ago

Relevant and interesting:

https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/articles/remarks-nnsa-administra... ("Remarks by NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby at the [Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty]: Science and Technology Conference 2023")

Likely not common knowledge that Russian, Chinese, and treaty organization observers are hosted at these lab tests and witness them—to verify that no nuclear detonations are taking place.

m30472• 3 years ago

"...where scientists have been conducting subcritical experiments since 1995..."

perihelions3• 3 years ago

Right. There's been 33 since then, with two more planned in 2024.

The title is pretty misleading, in that respect. The US can't be "moving closer to" something that it's already doing.

- "Currently, the NNSA is building two new subcritical experimental testbeds at the U1a Complex in Nevada. The testbeds will provide data to help address stockpile questions, with a special focus on the impact of plutonium aging on weapon performance. Since halting underground nuclear explosive testing, the United States has executed 33 subcritical experiments. The United States is preparing to execute two subcritical experiments in 2024 and plans to conduct approximately three subcritical experiments per year by the end of the decade."

https://www.energy.gov/nnsa/articles/remarks-nnsa-administra...

jbandela1• 3 years ago

This would be a great plot opener for a thriller book:

The testing reveals that none of initial batch of warheads tested work. Worry spreads throughout the scientists as they broaden the testing none of the warheads work.

There is full on panic now that the entire US nuclear deterrent has evaporated. If foreign powers found out, the US and all nations under the nuclear umbrella would be subject to blackmail.

genman3• 3 years ago

That been strongly speculated about the Russian state of nuclear warheads - because those are not properly maintained, none of them works - Russia, despite their wild claims doesn't have any nuclear deterrent as we speak.

So it is likely that they are moving toward doing an actual nuclear test, likely in the atmosphere. Legal framework to move in that direction is currently in progress. They of course try to milk as much leverage they can get in such process - I hope that Western policy makers understand that it will not change the end result - there will be a nuclear test regardless of the amount of concessions they will make.

hollerith• 3 years ago

Russia is in the late stages of a decades-long modernization of its strategic and nonstrategic nuclear forces to replace Soviet-era weapons with newer systems. In December 2022, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu reported that modern weapons and equipment now make up 91.3 percent of Russia’s nuclear triad.

https://fas.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Russian-nuclear-w...

tivert• 3 years ago

That been strongly speculated about the Russian state of nuclear warheads - because those are not properly maintained, none of them works - Russia, despite their wild claims doesn't have any nuclear deterrent as we speak.

I've seen speculation to that effect, but I do think you're talking the conclusion too far: it's reasonable to speculate some of their warheads don't work, but not all of them. While googling your claim, I came across this source (https://thebulletin.org/2009/12/nuclear-weapons-the-moderniz...), which does say the Russians maintain their warheads more poorly, but they compensate for that by re-manufacturing and replacing them regularly.

So it is likely that they are moving toward doing an actual nuclear test, likely in the atmosphere. Legal framework to move in that direction is currently in progress.

Cite?

gonzo41• 3 years ago

Nukes just seem like a money pit of maintenance problems and governance.

The UK has ~200 or more nukes. But it's scrimping on building a railway. And it's military is chronically short of money. Just how well do you think those nukes work? Think about the PM. Just how ready is his to engage with a nuclear strike as part of the job. I think nukes have been a paper tiger for a long time.

qingcharles• 3 years ago

Are all the UK nukes sub-based?

I thought they had all the missiles on loan from the USA these days?

thsksbd4• 3 years ago

The nukes are the only relevance the UK has in the world. Its the UKs last remaining bit of imperial honor it has left.

rfreytag• 3 years ago

Interesting plot. It would need to have multiple parallel plots where each nation with a nuclear arsenal thinks they are the only one that has lost their nuclear capability. Hijinks ensue as each tries to bluff the national actors.

Nuclear weapons are not very useful when you have good intelligence and a distributed ability to delivey vast amounts of precious-guided weapons.

wudangmonk• 3 years ago

Deterrant?, I honestly do not fear Russia, NK or any other nation but the U.S in starting a nuclear war, why? for the simple fact that some idiot think tank somewhere has convinced themselves that such a war in winnable.

ocdtrekkie2• 3 years ago

The US is the only party that probably will never have a reason to really consider a nuclear first strike: Basically endless conventional options with significant superiority over any potential enemy makes the risk of MAD completely unworkable. The party most likely to go nuclear is the one that has no other avenue to success.

thsksbd4• 3 years ago

Incredible. Two years later and Americans have forgotten the Saigon like scenes in Kabul and we're back to being invincible.

We haven't won a war against a peer enemy since WW2 and lost most of the wars against non-peers since then.

US moves closer to underground testing of nuclear weapons without any explosions

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