Geographic ‘hot spots’ for cigarette and firearm deaths in the U.S.

https://www.fau.edu/newsdesk/articles/geographic-hot-spots-firearms-smoking.php

by geox • 3 years ago

73 138 3 years ago

The distribution along the basin and range parts of the country are very interesting. Just eyeballing it, it looks like there is a significant altitude component.

Is it just the second and third-order effects of higher transportation costs, or is it something to do with barometric air pressure?

dghlsakjg2• 3 years ago

The basin and range distribution is particular to firearm suicides.

Those are rural places, with limited access to healthcare, cultures of shame around mental health, limited economic opportunities, and high rates of gun ownership.

I have no way to know causality, but my guess is that the social factors are far more important than the barometric pressure.

neovialogistics2• 3 years ago

Most of those social factors you've listed are things that are influenced by base transportation costs, so I wonder if there are similar patterns in other places with gun ownership and varying topography: Australia, Canada, Russia, Southeastern Europe...

pengaru2• 3 years ago

I don't know about you, but humidity and mosquitoes combined with no money for air-conditioning would certainly move me closer to the suicidal/violent addict end of the "versions of me" spectrum.

mortureb4• 3 years ago

The northeast, northwest and south west seem to be doing something very right.

ghayes• 3 years ago

The graph is, in a large way, an inversion of population density.

mortureb4• 3 years ago

That’s one correlation but it seems like that conjecture doesn’t extend to Florida or Texas.

tzs• 3 years ago

For firearm suicides it sort of is, but not really so much for the rest. I'm looking at the density map here [1].

[1] https://vividmaps.com/us-population-density/

uoaei2• 3 years ago

Background checks for firearm sales are doing a lot.

https://www.thetrace.org/2023/06/background-check-buy-a-gun-...

Though as the sister comment mentions, low-density settings also seem to correlate, at least for the counties outside of the South.

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2Fj...

It would be nice to see multiple maps, split up by category, with an additional one for gun-related deaths (combined suicide and assault).

ta8645• 3 years ago

It's a political paper that helps reduce trust in science. The way that the non targeted areas were pure white, was clearly designed to accentuate an arbitrary point -- there is no purely scientific definition for "hotspot". A non-political paper would have shown a proper gradient, for all regions.

fisherjeff• 3 years ago

Very interesting but not a great map for us color deficient types!

kallistisoft• 3 years ago

Came to make the same reply!

bmitc• 3 years ago

Honest questions that just popped in my head. Are there not color conversion filters that convert colors into more readily seen colors? What is a resource one would use to select color palettes from when designing in general but keeping color blind people in mind?

UberFly• 3 years ago

Strange that the counties with major cities like Chicago with high gun violence don't even register?

paulcole2• 3 years ago

Why is that strange?

Maybe “high gun violence” in Chicago isn’t as high as you think it is?

Maybe Chicago’s population is relatively low compared to Cook County’s population and the extra people balance it out?

ianai5• 3 years ago

In cities, you get “bad neighborhoods.” We’re seeing county data.

dghlsakjg2• 3 years ago

Chicago and/or Cook County isn't particularly high on a per capita basis for violence. Generally the most violent places in the US are in the Southeast. (https://www.visualcapitalist.com/most-dangerous-cities-in-th...)

There are certain very specific parts of Chicago where violent crime rates are astronomical, but if you are worried about widespread violent crime, your best bet is to avoid the southern states.

Where did you learn that Chicago is so violent?

pixl972• 3 years ago

Not really. In general if you watch one of the largest news networks in the US you've highly propagandized to the point of being completely disconnected from reality.

News likes to use statements like "The most violent city in America" and then happen to leave off the qualifier of "only if you count cities with over 1 million population". When you start including per capita statistics of smaller towns.

Beau did a episode on this a while back...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LCEqjXI1SLk

tester7565• 3 years ago

Smoking is biggest shit that's widely accepted, why? idk

People argue that banning it would be against "freedom"

Please explain to me how:

1) causing harm to yourself

2) causing harm to people around you

3) paying for it additional taxes(!!!)

4) and all of that while being highly addictive

... how is it a freedom?

The nature of it being addictive removes "freedom" from the consideration.

It isn't freedom when you're addicted.

I know smokers and a lot of them says that they'd want to drop this shit, but they cant.

thrill• 3 years ago

"I know smokers and a lot of them says that they'd want to drop this shit, but they can't."

Yes, they can.

tester7565• 3 years ago

Dropping requires specific traits, mindset, strong discipline, etc. That's pretty high bar.

Not everyone can, *especially when surrounded by smokers*.

readthenotes1• 3 years ago

Apparently nicotine is one of the most addictive substances out there.

They can if they move to a magical place where they can get any I suppose.

abeyer• 3 years ago

We have such a spotless track record as far as banning addictive recreational substances, I'm sure it'd be just as easy as that.

tester7565• 3 years ago

I'm not saying that banning is best idea, but I'm arguing against ppl acting as if banning smoking would be against freedom

diob2• 3 years ago

I want it banned because my stepmom (and father cause why not) chain smoked indoors my whole childhood. It's weird that we allow that.

CapstanRoller4• 3 years ago

It's weird that we allow that.

Many states already prohibit exposing children to secondhand smoke.

xrd2• 3 years ago

Interesting that this was created by a Florida professor but Florida is the only southern state where it is mapped almost entirely "white"; completely different than the other Southern states that are red indicating high mortality.

lisper• 3 years ago

Only Southern Florida, which is where a lot of expats go to retire. Northern Florida looks like the rest of the South.

paulcole2• 3 years ago

There’s no conspiracy here.

North Florida (where I grew up) is part of The South. South Florida is not part of The South.

xrd2• 3 years ago

I live in Central Florida, so let's split the difference? ;)

I agree with you mostly but if you look at the Opportunity Atlas (https://www.opportunityatlas.org/) all of Florida looks pretty bad. But I suppose that doesn't all correlate to gun violence?

daniel_iversen• 3 years ago

I think I read somewhere recently that the majority of Americans were in favour of stricter gun reforms, yet no real change I laws seem to happen and all the current presidential candidates over in the US seems to not even dare touch the subject. I find it reprehensible and puzzling how they’ve got this weird relationship with guns, but it’s interesting how often people are using a certain interpretation of their constitution as to why they need all those guns, or thinking that it’s the safest option that everyone has guns to protect themselves against the “bad guys” than just making it really difficult for the average citizen to get a firearm.

partitioned2• 3 years ago

It’s because we don’t have a choice. A stacked Supreme Court that says any gun law has to be a gun law that would’ve been cool in 1776 has made any progress impossible without violent revolution

oaththrowaway6• 3 years ago

If that were true, the NFA would be repealed (the legal ground for it was pretty shaky originally and somehow it has stood)

netsharc3• 3 years ago

Seems like, just with many issues in the US, it's become another "The other side is against it, so we're for it!" problem... "Our kids are getting shot up in school, but the Democrats want to ban guns, so we're pro guns, there must be other solutions! Maybe Ivermectin also creates bullet-proof kids!".

The opposition also becomes saboteurs because any wins they give the ruling party means the ruling party gets to look better, and hell no, we can't have that, we have to destroy them!

Funnily enough when lockdowns started, the billions of bailout got bipartisan support. It seems like both sides knew a hungry populace would go for their heads, whatever the label after their name is. EDIT: then again, Dems are a more conscionable bunch (which makes fighting against a win-by-whatever-means-possible bunch hard), they knew people needed the money. The hypocrisy was GOP saying money doesn't grow on trees, until it does...

CoastalCoder3• 3 years ago

Seems like, just with many issues in the US, it's become another "The other side is against it, so we're for it!" problem...

I'm confused by your comment. Your main thesis is worded as though it applies to all U.S. political groups, but the rest of your post seems specifically anti-Republican.

morkalork• 3 years ago

You've probably seen it here first hand many times: knee-jerk contrarianism. It will be our undoing.

oaththrowaway6• 3 years ago

Republicans only care about gun rights when Democrats are in office. Same with Democrats about abortion. Neither do anything to reinforce either right when they control a majority of the branches of government.

ct0• 3 years ago

There are 2 schools of thought on the constitution. Living constitutionalists believe that the constitutional adapts or changes and can be fluid based on "modern" beliefs and the interpretation changes to allow for that. Originalists believe the text is strict and not up for debate and that the contract of the constitution is fixed. Most of what we are seeing is based on these 2 ideas in conflict.

masfuerte• 3 years ago

That whole debate feels like a distraction. If the majority wants gun control don't debate the meaning of the text, amend it.

chipsa4• 3 years ago

Living constitutionalism doesn't quite make sense to me, insofar as it means that the constitution means whatever we want it to say, which results in it not actually being a check on the government's powers. This isn't to say there isn't some ambiguity in the constitution, and that ambiguity can be beneficial. But the living constitution theorists tend to read more ambiguity in than actually exists.

This includes saying things like: constitutional review didn't exist until Marbury v Madison. This ignores that it was a thing under the various state constitutions, with it not being called out specifically, and that it falls naturally under the fact that SCOTUS has the power to decide all cases and controversies, and Stare Decisis combines with that to say that if SCOTUS decides one way on a constitutional issue, they'll continue to decide the same way on that issue, so if a lower court judge decides the other way, they'll get reversed when it gets appealed, probably summarily in a one line opinion of the Court.

oaththrowaway6• 3 years ago

Most people that are in favor of stricter gun laws don't understand the current laws that already exist and just hear buzzwords like "gun show loophole"

maxerickson2• 3 years ago

Not really fair to throw that out there without articulating what you think it means to understand the current laws.

defrost• 3 years ago

I'm in rural Australia and have several firearms, they're tools for feral animal control, my neighbour shoots ULR targets at 5,000 yards (not a typo), and 12 year olds can join a gun club.

(ie. recheck any odd notions you might have about gun bans in Australia)

Stricter gun laws, more complicated laws aren't the answer - simple clear uniform gun laws, equally reinforced will do the job.

Unfortuneately the very nature of the (un)United States seems predestined to never enact uniform laws wrt firearms let alone maintain an up to date central register of information etc.

brobinson3• 3 years ago

You just need 38 states to agree to amend the Constitution and repeal the 2nd amendment.

PopAlongKid4• 3 years ago

The problem is that a state with 1/60th the population of another state still gets the same say in the matter.

chrisco255• 3 years ago

I don't think it's true that a majority of Americans want stricter laws. We generally want more authority to carry without restriction, as seen in the rise of states that allow for concealed carry without a license. The laws are nonsensical, since there's many times more firearms in the country than people. Nevermind that we share a porous border with a country known for powerful drug cartels.

At any rate, I'm a 10th generation American, and the sense of responsibility for protecting life and liberty with firearms is deeply embedded in my culture. It's not weird, we're the oldest democracy for a reason, the people are armed and stubborn.

notacoward• 3 years ago

At this point, what state governors and legislatures do has little to do with what the people of that state - let alone of the country generally - want. Let's look at real data.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1645/guns.aspx

57% think gun laws should be more strict.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/26/politics/cnn-poll-gun-laws/in...

This time it's 64%. Yes, it is true that Americans want stricter gun laws. Your made-up reasons why Americans oppose gun control are Not Even Wrong when in fact there is no such opposition.

PopAlongKid4• 3 years ago

I don't think it's true that a majority of Americans want stricter laws.

The majority of Americans want fewer mass shootings of random individuals out in public.

starttoaster2• 3 years ago

First, apologies for the wall of text. I started off thinking I was just going to write a few sentences and here we are.

This topic is a bit more complicated than an outside observer would be able to pick up on without perhaps doing a bit more research. One common misconception people from other countries seem to have is that all the change is being made at the federal level. In fact, quite a lot of legislation is produced from smaller jurisdictions, and gun legislature changes frequently, and becomes more strict over time especially in heavily populated areas like Chicago, Seattle, New York City, their respective counties, etc. Keep in mind, the US is larger geographically than all of Europe, so there's a lot of diversity in issues and ideals across the states.

Gun reforms at the federal level are complicated. There is a large portion of the US (at least geographically) that is vehemently against a gun reform, or additional legislature on the subject. And not that this conversation has been about the subject of a nationwide gun ban, but often enough that's where these conversations lead so I'll just take it there -- there's a real concern that a national ban of guns would increase the frequency of gun related violent crimes. Guns are such a large part of the culture here, and so many people have them, and would likely not return them in a ban scenario but rather hide them, that the people committing violent crimes would be more unopposed than ever. We would hope that the people committing such crimes wouldn't suddenly become more ambitious. Couple that concern with the general lack of confidence in our police force. Generally in an active shooter situation, the police are arriving on scene 5+ minutes after casualties have already started piling up. Or in the case of someone threatening your life, the police can't really do anything about it -- often your best bet is just to file a restraining order... which of course doesn't stop a person from assaulting you.

A common thread amongst gun advocates seems to also be that restricting the ability for law abiding citizens to acquire guns is not an effective counter to gun related crimes. If there's one thing that the Mexican drug cartel has made clear, it's that if there's a market for the trafficking of illegal objects, they can be smuggled en masse into the country and be sold to people that are clearly willing to break the law. I think this argument holds some merit, and I say "some" because of course there are gun crimes committed with legally acquired guns.

My disclaimer of bias is that I am a legal gun owner, but I am for gun control legislation. I am agreeable to things such as required universal background checks on gun purchases. Background checks are already required by the federal government for store gun sales, but background check requirements from private sales (person to person) vary from state to state. I am not against a national gun registry. I am not against the restriction of types of firearms that are used disproportionately to commit violent crimes as long as there is a probation period where the new restrictions are measured for efficacy. What I am personally against is what I see more commonly instituted, which is legislation that is purely reactionary and pushed by people with a lack of knowledge on the subject. I talk to too many people about gun control that are familiar with the terms "bump stocks" and "binary triggers" and wanted them banned, but they couldn't even tell me what these things were when asked. I talk to too many people that think I could just go to a gun store and buy a full auto machine gun, which is also false and would be federally illegal. This is just to say, gun control is a topic of much ignorance (from both sides of the fence.) I think it is equally ignorant to be universally against gun control measures, but unfortunately I think their ignorance is at least somewhat valuable in fighting off the ignorance from the other side. I wish that our elected officials were more likely to talk to experts on a topic before proposing what they might propose, but the unfortunate truth is that they don't, and often need reining in.

bm37192• 3 years ago

I think it is equally ignorant to be universally against gun control measures

Someone "universally against gun control measures" here. I'd be interested in knowing how I'm as ignorant as people who want to regulate things based on scary buzzwords, vaguely describing items that they generally lack any knowledge of.

I'd assert it's possible to hold this position, yet also be quite well informed about the history, mechanics, laws, and social consequences surrounding firearms and their accessories. For example, one could simply consider retaining the individual agency that this part of the Bill of Rights has preserved for us as being of higher utility than any of the downsides that additional (or existing) legislation purports to address. My personal view is a bit more nuanced than that (in fact, I agree with most of your post), but wanted to point out that one could start with different base axioms/heuristics, examine the same data, and end up with a different end perspective via perfectly rational (i.e., non-ignorant) reasoning.

icegreentea2• 3 years ago

Well, it's cause a rounding error of Democrats aren't going to vote for an otherwise ok candidate if they don't support tougher gun control laws, while a non-rounding error of Republicans supports would probably not support a Republican candidate if they did support more gun control.

Put another way, I think it's fair to say that the majority of people who care about enacting stricter gun control, also do not put it in say... the top 5 issues, especially at a national level (loosening gun control laws might be otherwise). The converse position is true on the other side. I don't think there are many gun fans who would say... "repeal the NFA" as a top 5 'must have' position. But "national semi-auto ban"... well, that's like a top 5 position right there.

Put another way - would you have preferred Obama to enact ACA, or stricter gun control laws?

oaththrowaway6• 3 years ago

Trump probably hates guns as much as Bloomberg but lots of republicans still love him

stevenwoo• 3 years ago

This looks a little bit like Colin Woodward’s recent update on Eleven Nations of North America but with different focus https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/09/01/america-li...

pnw• 3 years ago

I was intrigued to read the details but this is just a press release with the actual research paper locked behind a paywall unfortunately. I can't find the paper anywhere.

uoaei2• 3 years ago

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00917...

You've heard of sci-hub?

Animats• 3 years ago

Interesting that firearms assaults are highest in the really empty states. Except Texas.

ianai5• 3 years ago

Light blue is suicide.

Edit-firearm suicide. Not the general category. Key is at the end of the page, sort of unhelpfully.

throwaway128128• 3 years ago

Confront anyone with this kind of correlation and you'll be accused of being an elitist snob who hates America. In America we are addicted to lethal things.

dbrueck3• 3 years ago

Sort of interesting, but the whole setup is oddly misleading:

"Smoking and firearms are among the leading causes of avoidable premature death in the United States"

The statement is true for smoking but it takes some work to make it true for firearms. And then it describes tobacco and firearms as "both are legal yet lethal" - it borders on nonsensical to pair them that way (I guess possessing both can be legal, but it's worded to imply that the use of both, in the ways that resulted in death, is legal).

I'd love to see fewer firearm deaths, but it just seems odd to try and link a really high cause of deaths with one that is an order of magnitude smaller, while skipping over others that are very preventable causes of death. You are, for example, many times more likely to die from poor diet than from being shot. I mean, using their framing, automobiles are "legal yet lethal" and auto deaths are the cause of about as many deaths as firearm deaths - and that includes suicide (i.e. intentional) deaths.

scotty794• 3 years ago

There's another quality that allows to group cigarettes and guns together. They are both completely optional lifestyle choice. While cars and diet might be way harder to opt out given how cars are needed to get to work and stores and the most unhealthy diet is the cheapest and fastest one.

BaculumMeumEst• 3 years ago

Do you also consider living in an area with high rate of violent crime to be a lifestyle choice?

conductr• 3 years ago

Even “optional” gets a little fuzzy when all these things are likely to be a cultural phenomenon; as in, influenced by your parents/family.

It’s like saying that Christianity continues to be the most popular choice of religion in the US. Sure it’s optional, but there’s a bit of inertia involved.

dbrueck3• 3 years ago

They are both completely optional lifestyle choice.

Kind of like alcohol, right? (which has nearly 4x the annual deaths vs firearms)

dudul• 3 years ago

Don't they count fatalities due to assault? Is it optional to live in an area with high crime?

chmod600• 3 years ago

There's always some way to group things together, but I find it unhelpful in this case.

Even grouping all firearm deaths together is almost always unhelpful. Ordinary violent crime with firearms is very different from a school shooting is very different from suicide by firearm.

Then grouping firearm deaths together with a highly addictive and slow-killing vice like cigarettes just adds to the confusion.

jprete• 3 years ago

I think the paper is purely political. Alcohol causes 140k deaths per year, and if there were any scientific goal here they would have included alcohol before including firearms.

XorNot3• 3 years ago

Alcohol notably tends to quietly kill only yourself. Smoking affects everyone around you, firearms too.

Alcohol related non-drinker fatalities would be the relevant measure (and still too many, since it's going to be drink driving largely).

noduerme2• 3 years ago

Not to mention obesity, which overlaps nicely with county maps of tobacco use, firearms ownership, alcohol abuse, unemployment, abortion bans, and places that used to own slaves.

Still, I'd say calling a color-coded overlay of those things "political" is actually too kind.

To me this reads visually as a weak attempt to get some viral traction for posting something like those covid infection / vaccination maps, which wealthy city-dwellers clucked over while reveling in the schadenfreude of The Redneck getting his Just Desserts.

It's not political, so much as a kind of snuff porn indulged in by certain people. Nor has it lost its paternalistic "public health" overtones in this remix.

[edit] don't get me wrong, I'm all for bringing the backwards South into the 21st Century and putting an end to its reactionary BS that has no place in a modern democracy. My point is that shaming them has no effect whatsoever; it's just a sop to prop up the sense of superiority that's unhelpfully been cultivated by coastal elites.

[edit 2] I was a middle child.

dehrmann• 3 years ago

it borders on nonsensical to pair them that way

While I agree, the one government tasks one law enforcement agency (ATF) with managing them.

Waterluvian• 3 years ago

Then we ought to include alcohol related deaths. And explosives related deaths especially.

dbrueck3• 3 years ago

I think that's true, at least officially, but IIRC the ATF came about in the 1800s as part of the Treasury Department, i.e. "managing" those things in the sense of taxation/revenue first more than policing, the latter now belonging at least as much to the DEA and FBI maybe? I might be misremembering though. :)

cjensen• 3 years ago

Some random observations on this...

1. The suicide difference between the Mountain & Basin West vs the Great Plains surprises me. I would have expected Wyoming and Nebraska would have been more similar.

2. The gradient across Texas is interesting, particularly the lack of both suicide and smoking death in the southwest part of the state compared to the northeast.

3. Rural Nevada counties, except the northernmost two, utter lack the suicide rate that is seen in nearly all of Arizona.

4. It's not helpful to conflate these three causes of death. Seems like it would be better as separate maps

5. It's not helpful to color-code these maps as a binary choice between "has problem" and "does not have." I wonder how much subtlety is hidden by not using a gradient.

6. Unlabeled graphs are a sin. What is the definition of "hot spot?" And why is it hidden from the casual reader?

pierat• 3 years ago

6. Unlabeled graphs are a sin. What is the definition of "hot spot?" And why is it hidden from the casual reader?

Given that hidden fact, along with conflating firearm assaults vs suicide, tells me there's a definite bias of the story provided.

Suicide is usually a last resort to life when faced with either hard to undo things, or impossible to undo things.

I haven't dug much into this, but my guess it's something to do with the group that correlated this. But again, I find displays like this suspect.

fbdab1032• 3 years ago

Given suicide is relatively rare, I am wondering if this might be an artifact of low absolute population?

ianai5• 3 years ago

Yes, rural Nevada is a whole other level of barren. That big “county” in the center is federal land with almost no (maybe none at all?) population.

Also this is just firearm suicide. Maybe more enlightening with a general suicide from any cause indicator.

Perceval• 3 years ago

Yes, it jumps out that a lot of the county-level, patchwork pattern exhibited in the firearm-suicide data may be an artifact of the very low populations in many of those Western counties: https://medium.com/@uwdata/surprise-maps-showing-the-unexpec...

tomohawk• 3 years ago

It would seem like pairing alcohol with cigarettes would be more worthwhile, as alcohol is much deadlier, being involved in about half of suicides, half of vehicle and other deaths, half of gun deaths, etc.

freitzkriesler2• 3 years ago

Interesting how there is a correlation between smoking/firearms deaths and where African American communities are prominent.

johnea• 3 years ago

Alcohol, tobacco and firearms, like the little baby jesus intended...

pengaru2• 3 years ago

I wish the map could represent gun ownership and smoker rates as well. Am I just seeing that there are a lot more smokers in the red areas? Or is it the same rate of smokers as many other states, just these have more smoking-related deaths? Did they normalize the data for that already? I feel like there's not enough information here to really interpret the visualization.

jeffbee• 3 years ago

This is a bit of a meta comment, but it's interesting that slapping data from WONDER onto a choropleth, with some paragraphs describing the map in words, amounts to research from authors with these titles. I am not saying this research isn't worthwhile, but I am saying there are members of the public doing research at this level or higher and just publishing it on Medium, Observable, or their blogs. Perhaps weekend volunteer researchers should seek university affiliations so they can get published in prestigious journals.

khaki54• 3 years ago

They finally found a way to make a US gun violence map that didn't show the most gun violence in the places with the strictest laws

notjoemama• 3 years ago

I dislike they’ve confounded suicide and assault, yet again. The point of collecting and presenting data like this is to understand the problem and those two sources of “gun violence” (a political weasel word) have very different reasons for existing. Because of this the solutions must look different but without seeing the categorical error only one broad solution will be presented. Chances are it will do little or nothing because it is not actually a solution to the individual issues.

CapstanRoller4• 3 years ago

It's very disingenuous to conflate suicide (something done by someone) with violence (something done to someone else).

Suicide is an act of bodily autonomy.

Geographic ‘hot spots’ for cigarette and firearm deaths in the U.S.

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