Remote work is the reason why Wall Street was wrong about a recession

https://fortune.com/2023/08/01/remote-work-preventing-economy-from-recession/

by frans • 3 years ago

38 91 3 years ago

gmerc4• 3 years ago

Imagine if we rolled the AI productivity gains made possible by all our data and rolled it into the 4 day workweek. It’d still leave 5-10 pp efficiency gain for shareholder presents and actually improve quality of life for everyone.

hsjqllzlfkf6• 3 years ago

So you suggest taking a productivity gain and using it to keep production while working less.

Why not use the productivity gain to keep the same worked time and increase production?

Frummy5• 3 years ago

So you get nothing and the shareholders get more, and you think that’s good? Unless you’re already a billionaire then that doesn’t serve you

monooso2• 3 years ago

I believe that was addressed in the original comment: "...improve quality of life for everyone."

maxehmookau2• 3 years ago

Yes. 100%. Absolutely. Without a doubt.

It'd be nice to use some increases in efficiency and productivity to actually benefit something other than shareholder profits.

detourdog• 3 years ago

Because we don’t need that much production.

ChatGTP2• 3 years ago

Sadly, I don’t think this is how capitalism works…

chiefalchemist3• 3 years ago

Yes. But hopefully someone eventually figures out a (higher) disproportionate part of the economy happens on the weekends. That is, if two days off is good for spending, three days is even better. Aside from more of the usual, three-day weekends would, for example, be good for tourism.

wkat42422• 3 years ago

Eventually we'll need to drop that anyway. Capitalism will always externalise to the poorer, the environment etc. We're getting to the point where it can't continue. Not just because we're screwing up the world but also because eventually a few people will have all the money and nobody will have any left to buy things.

Even the most hardline neoliberals are now seriously thinking about UBI.

rvense• 3 years ago

A few years ago, I read an essay that pointed out that the typewriter meant that people could write five or so times faster than before. And of course, what happened was not that people spent less times typing, quite the opposite. This plays out again and again, of course.

prepend3• 3 years ago

Isn’t that exactly how capitalism works?

Increased productivity increases competition so new firms using AI, remote work, and short work weeks can attract and retain a superior workforce and be cheaper than older firms that can’t adapt?

I’m not sure what method other than markers would be best suited for making such a large industry shift.

gmerc4• 3 years ago

It worked like this in the 80s in Europe. Too many steel mills closed, governments and unions capped thr total labor hours to create balance and ensure a healthy job market.

It can be done and if everyone for their earnings call is promising the gains to shareholders through layoffs or may end viable way to avoid an utter labor market disaster that’s brewing.

amelius• 3 years ago

Humans need work for meaning.

Just ask many retired people.

wkat42422• 3 years ago

That's what those 4 days are for I guess?

denkmoon• 3 years ago

What a pithy and pointless comment, and kind of sad even. You can work your 5 day weeks, hell you can work 12hr days if you want. Please, don't let anyone here stop you.

I find significantly more meaning in my life from the things I do outside of work and having an extra 1 day per week for those things is literally a personal career goal.

hdjjhhvvhga2• 3 years ago

(Some). Many of us found meaning in other areas and are very happy about it.

cassianoleal• 3 years ago

Even taking that at face value, "work" doesn't necessarily relate to full-time employment.

Work can be crafts, social work, volunteering, actually taking time to raise one's kids, hell even playing ball games in the park with friends can constitute work for meaning purposes!

mrweasel2• 3 years ago

Wrong way around, humans need to do meaningful things, that's why mental health suffers when people doing meaningless work.

rhaway84773• 3 years ago

The evidence given in the linked Axios article is a stronger justification for unlimited holidays and/or summer Fridays than anything else.

The real reasons appear to be revenge spending (which was predicted) and higher personal incomes.

It’s hard to see how any of this is tied to remote work specifically from the actual article.

ranting-moth2• 3 years ago

https://archive.is/4fxkV

Edit: link fixed

hdjjhhvvhga2• 3 years ago

It didn't work for me - the text is blurred. What helped though was turning off JS (one click in uBlock Origin).

ranting-moth2• 3 years ago

Sorry, I've replaced the link now.

jongjong• 3 years ago

The reason is because for the price of things to crash relative to dollars, there needs to be a shortage of dollars relative to the things that can be bought with dollars and since more dollars are being printed constantly and at zero cost by the government and banks, it's simply impossible to create enough goods and services in the economy to vacuum up all those dollars.

Attempts have been made to make dollars appear scarce to the masses by manufacturing extreme wealth inequality but the inflation we're seeing today likely comes from wealthy consumers, not from the masses. The masses are already totally squeezed out of all wealth-creation opportunities and the system is just creating tons of wasteful bullshit jobs for them instead. The system we have today is utterly incapable of using the masses for anything other than bullshit bureaucratic jobs because it doesn't want the masses to compete against existing corporations; it needs a way to keep them busy but, as a side effect, this anti-competitive economy just destroys innovation through the systematic deprivation of opportunities.

lamontcg• 3 years ago

Probably not.

Mostly it is because we're still dealing with bullwhip effects from the pandemic, and the interest rate hikes from the Fed haven't really had time yet.

It takes 6-12 months from the end of rate hikes for a recession to hit, and given how fast the rate hikes were and that policy was still accommodative up until earlier this year my expectations are closer to the tail end of that range--and we're not even certain the Fed is done with rate hikes yet.

If this strong economy results in a resurgence of inflation and more tight labor markets then the Fed may continue with a terminal policy much higher than we think is possible right now (and that kicks the end date of Fed rate hikes even further down the road, along with the 6-12 month recession expectation).

Remote work is the reason why Wall Street was wrong about a recession

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