Japan Government warned citizens to shelter after ballistic missile launch

Did they though? It's cool to make fun of the little dictator and his regime, but if his little missile just flew past and into the sea, they can clearly hit the land if they wanted. Now, if it landed short of land, then let the jokes fly. The teasing for leaving your putt short is brutal.

shusaku• 3 years ago

I hate seeing this on hacker news because there is the implication “it’s international news, so something must have happened”. I think the local alert probably has a more limited geographic scope than before, there’s been a lot of push back.

Klonoar• 3 years ago

Japan-based content has a staggering amount of "to the front page" power for HN.

alacritas02• 3 years ago

The Japanese government has confirmed what appears to be a ballistic missile launched by North Korea has not fallen in the northern prefecture of Hokkaido or surrounding areas.

elil17• 3 years ago

BNO now reporting it has hit the ocean: https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/164629409193462171...

Hikikomori2• 3 years ago

Just boarded the ferry between Fukuoka mad Busan...

robbiep• 3 years ago

Well, everyone has to be somewhere

numpad03• 3 years ago

Everyone has a phone these days, and every phones has emergency alerts enabled by default. You'll get notices in any actual "hits the fan" situations.

SoftTalker2• 3 years ago

Not I. All that garbage is disabled. Too many late night wakeups and false alarms during meetings and other inconvenient times. Boy who cried "wolf" syndrome.

Hikikomori2• 3 years ago

Not worried really. Interested coincidence for me to be on the ocean as the same time they're sending rockets there. Though pretty far away from it.

quyleanh• 3 years ago

Is there any link with hit location?

LeoPanthera• 3 years ago

Japanese broadcast television is currently reporting that the missiles are down and did not come down on land.

FormerBandmate• 3 years ago

North Korea was doing this every week a while back

drumhead• 3 years ago

It didnt make it to the mainland, it dropped off in the sea. But if had made hit land what would the response have to be?

pkdpic2• 3 years ago

That's a really good question. Is 9/11 a good historical analogy for millennials? Is there something better to relate this to?

boomboomsubban• 3 years ago

It depends. If North Korea were intending to bomb Japan, it'd be an act of war. I'm dubious they'd knowingly kick off a war by bombing Hokkaido though. So it'd more likely be an accident like the time the US bombed a Chinese embassy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bombing_of_the_C...

Whether anyone accepted the accident angle would depend on how willing various major powers were wanting to get involved in the incident.

But 9/11 would not be a good analogy, as it was not carried out by a nation. Which is why it took a month for the US to declare an illegal war on Afghanistan rather than immediately being able to declare a legal war in self defense.

perihelions2• 3 years ago

There have been at least three American missile tests that landed in Mexico. (They were launched from the US into the US, intended to land in the White Sands missile range, but overshot).

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1350&dat=19700804&id=... ("Mexcians find errant rocket", 1970)

https://wsmrmuseum.com/2021/11/10/in-1970-an-athena-missile-... ("In 1970, An Athena Missile Went Deep Into Mexico")

rascul• 3 years ago

My memory is vague but I seem to recall hearing of NK missiles heading in Japan's direction a number of times in recent years. Is my memory correct? Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries?

dirtyid3• 3 years ago

NK's rocketry program advancing at rapid rate. Look what where NK is, if they have to do flight tests, they're not going to fly over PRC, RU or SKR due to geopolitics. Sometimes they're sensible and do lofted trajectories into sea of Japan, but every once in a while they need to overfly some land for proper tests, and JP is what's left. Historic grievances a bonus. Extra bonus JP can't test/overfly back without landing in countries above. Geography of missile tests gets interesting, India has to do it over ocean where foreign sigint ships can gather data, US/RU/PRC all have large empty regions to test inland away from prying eyes.

GalenErso2• 3 years ago

Does NK just get free reign to fire missiles towards other countries?

As long as North Korea's regional neighbors and the United States do little more than condemning the launches, yes. We know these launches pose a risk to civilians on the ground, but little can be done to stop them short of bombing the launch sites. And bombing North Korea would be an act of war, and the consequences would be unpredictable. [1] There are rumors that CYBERCOM has been able to stop North Korean missile launches in the past with covert cyberattacks, but whether that's true or not would be classified. [2]

If the U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan. The missile could be programmed to overfly Pyongyang, and crash into the Yellow Sea. Though China would probably deploy watercraft to recover the missile's debris to study its technology, if it doesn't detonate.

[1] Note that North Korea did bomb the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong back in 2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombardment_of_Yeonpyeong?uses...). Two civilians and two soldiers were killed, and a number of people were wounded, but the shelling did not trigger a conflict. North Korea also sank a South Korean warship the same year, killing 46, and it didn't cause a war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking?useskin=v...).

[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/world/asia/north-korea-mi...

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/18/world/asia/north-korea-mi...

kQq9oHeAz6wLLS• 3 years ago

And bombing North Korea would be an act of war

Fun fact: the US is technically still at war with Korea. The Korean war was never actually stopped...

But I do agree resuming hostilities would lead to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes.

dirtyid3• 3 years ago

U.S. wanted to respond in kind, it could launch a missile from a ship in the Sea of Japan

There really isn't a ballistic trajectory that wouldn't land in PRC or SKR waters, unless it's a (relatively) low flying cruise missile that overflys SKR waters and circles back to land inJapanese waters in east sea which is much more escalatory than lofting a high flying ballistic over air space. Practically there isn't a viable "proportional" response, especially if failure = ordnance lands in PRC or RU territory.

stuartcw• 3 years ago

This is almost a daily occurrence.

The news this time is that government used the J-Alert system to mass broadcast to everyone in Hokkaido to announce that, instead of coming down in the sea of Japan, it might come down on the land. NHK is reporting that it might be a new type ICBM which I guess might be the reason for the general alert this time.

misssocrates• 3 years ago

What happens if one does hit the land, whether intentional or not? It seems inevitable with that frequency. What would the response be?

ChatGTP• 3 years ago

Nothing I guess ?

freetime2• 3 years ago

Let’s hope we never find out.

vkou• 3 years ago

If it's an accident? An apology, maybe.

If it damages something or someone? If relations between the two countries are not completely wretched, usually a bunch of arguing, and small reparations [1][2].

If they are completely wretched, or there's some other concern at play, usually nothing [3]. The victim country is free to apply whatever sanctions it sees fit.

These sorts of questions are not settled in a framework of legality, as much as they are settled in a framework of power, and willingness to escalate. Escalating against a nuclear sovereign is often a bad idea.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kosmos_954

For the recovery efforts, the Canadian government billed the Soviet Union Can$6,041,174.70 for expenses and additional compensation for future unpredicted expenses; the USSR eventually paid Can$3 million.

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

As part of the settlement, even though the U.S. government did not admit legal liability or formally apologize to Iran, it agreed to pay US$61.8 million on an ex gratia basis in compensation to the families of the Iranian victims

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

The Soviet government expressed regret over the loss of life, but offered no apology and did not respond to demands for compensation.

BrandoElFollito• 3 years ago

This happened when a Ukraine's missile hit Poland by mistake and killed I think 2 people.

Initially Ukraine said it was Russia, and the story wound down when evidence pointed to Ukraine. I do not think there were any apology (but I am not sure, I know about that because a friend of mine was nearby the hit (at a safe distance, but still))

1letterunixname2• 3 years ago

False alarms create alarm fatigue. This can create more risk than it solves.

It might be wiser to:

1. Ignore specific occurrences to avoid giving the neighborhood narcissistic bully attention. Their ego uses this for oxygen.

2. Every few months, run preparedness drills for getting to strong shelters coinciding with testing the J-Alert system.

3. Only use the J-Alert system for a credible threat.

effingwewt• 3 years ago

I was discussing this with my family the other day. Here on television they now do an every few days broadcast alert. Then amber alert tests. Then weekly emergency system alert test. Also now we have silver alerts for old people who get lost.

The result is what feels like daily (sometimes multiple times/day!) alerts.

My SO's grandmother is the only one who watches cable, but the whole house runs to turn off the tv or mute it asap when we hear it.

Exactly the opposite effect/behavior the alerts are supposed to have.

It's like when your boss marks everything urgent so nothing is.

Side note- so many good songs have been ruined for me by repeated pushes of commercials using the hook/catchy part of the song max volume for whatever amazon or pill garbage. Horns honking or surens blaring.

numpad03• 3 years ago

Looks like this was a credible threat, with the trajectory ending on a land. Then the missile was lost and alert was updated as non-threat. Not clear if this has been an escalation or just a mistake.

debacle• 3 years ago

I wonder what the feeling of the people in e.g. China or Russia is right now regarding peace. Is it hopelessness? Nationalism? Fatalism?

Foolish thinking, but I was hoping as a species we were past petty wars.

GalenErso2• 3 years ago

A recent Ipsos survey showed that China was the country with the highest proportion of happy people, at 91%.[1]

A 2020 survey by Harvard researchers showed similar results. [2]

People living in autocracies are far less dissatisfied with their systems of government as democracy minded Westerners like myself might assume.

[1] https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-happiness-six-points-last-ye...

[2] https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/07/long-term-sur...

bouncycastle• 3 years ago

Of course you are going to say that you are happy, you don't want to provoke your local autocracy...

charlieyu1• 3 years ago

Doubtful about this.

World Happiness Report 2023 has China at rank 64.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Happiness_Report

malkia2• 3 years ago

Growing up in Bulgaria, in the 80s, live was easy and happy. Why? You did not have to think much about your future, finish high-school (required), get to university (free) or find a decent technical job. No complicated taxes, loans. Not much choice at the store - 2 kinds of everything - 2 kinds of beers, cheese, salami (well kind of). You look around - almost everyone is like you, maybe 2x less, maybe 2x more salary, some x10 - but you don't see them.

Everyone was like a well sized job running in k8s or nomad :) - because the goverment was like that. It's much easier to compertmenalize such people...

Now we are not "jobs" or "tasks" or "peons", we are people. So there was oppression, but it was hidden. People would joke, but then people might tell other people to the "secret service police".

As a kid, I had pretty good childhood! But still not sure if I had to be an adult during that period how I would've felt.

ethbr03• 3 years ago

Out of curiosity, when there are a limited number of choices, did people still have favorites? And argue that "theirs" was better?

Or were they so segmented or different that competition was not a thing?

theGnuMe• 3 years ago

All of the above, same as any country.

hash872• 3 years ago

Out of curiosity (this is totally not my field)- aren't anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems a thing, especially for a technologically advanced country like Japan? If Ukraine can shoot down half or more of the missiles that Russia lobs at them, why can't Japan use a similar system like the Patriot or Iron Dome?

Related question- what's the status of shooting down missiles in flight with lasers? Is that still a generation or two away?

deepsun• 3 years ago

half or more

Here is the answer. Every system has some percentage of misses, especially during mass attacks.

Iron Dome is not really relevant, I think, it's designed against small, short-range, mortar-like projectiles. For ballistic rockets or cruise missiles you need systems like Patriot, right.

ethbr03• 3 years ago

You'd use the SM-3 (USN) launched from Aegis platforms. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-161_Standard_Missile_3

Threats like this are why Japan and South Korea are the only countries outside the US to field it.

Alternates would be THAAD and the GBI, but believe those are more specific to the US Army and Missile Defense Agency's needs. The latter is also still under serious development.

HideousKojima2• 3 years ago

For starters, never believe any side's claims about how many of the other side's materiel/soldiers they've destroyed/killed/whatever. Russia is definitely telling bigger lies about this stuff, but the Ukrainians and their allies are certainly exaggerating their numbers too. In war, truth is the first casualty.

The reality is that we don't really have any hard numbers for how effective various missile defense systems are. Any test results from them are classified because you don't want your opponent knowing ahead of time how effective your defenses actually are. Even for automated turrets like CIWS don't have any hard numbers on their shootdown rate.

dirtyid3• 3 years ago

Japan as AEGIS + SM3 with dedicated ballistic missile defense ships in the plan. Issue is BMD are really not well tested, intercept tests are very choreographed events that is not... reflective of reality, and still experiences occasional failures. I think JP conducts there tests with USN around Hawaii, away from prying eyes. Apart from just being sensitive tech where you don't want capabilities revealed (which it will if intercepting in sea of Japan), the political optics of FAILING to intercept is catastrophic. IMO worse than a F35 getting shot down. Imagine interceptor (missile) misses / fails to self destruct and lands in SKR (if lucky), or if unlucky, in nuclear states like PRC, RU, NKR where an incoming missile defense interceptor is not distinguishable from an actual missile. Basically, current BMD politics is better to pretend/hope you're capable (via controlled demostrations) than fail once while doing it live and remove all doubt.

Merad• 3 years ago

Japan has Patriot systems and several Aegis equipped ships, and both of those have ABM capability. Ballistic missiles are just much harder to shoot down than normal surface to surface or air launched missiles, especially when you’re using SAM’s like Patriot that are relatively short range. I think there just isn’t a very high confidence level in ABM systems. Even the US’ dedicated ABM system, which consists of long range missiles based in CA and AK, is expected to need four shots to achieve a 97% probability of kill (the system only has 44 missiles).

The US had a test platform [0] that showed that the concept of an airborne laser ABM system was viable. However they concluded that we need an order of magnitude increase in the power of airborne lasers in order for it to have enough range to actually be useful.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_YAL-1

MichaelZuo• 3 years ago

They're not worth it to actually use unless you have unlimited amounts of money or you know there's a nuke on the missile.

It would take in the ballpark of $10 billion worth of anti-missile systems to shoot down $100 million worth of unarmed ballistic missiles if both sides know what their doing.

anarchymatt• 3 years ago

"technologically advanced country like Japan?"

is unfortunately a misconception

perihelions2• 3 years ago

These missiles are in outer space, at the altitude of the ISS or higher.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_t... (*old* ICBM tests, not today's one)

- There's no extant technology to shoot them down;

- They're not in Japanese airspace or territory (does not extend to orbital altitude);

- If they were to crash in Japan by mistake, there's no benefit in shooting at them, because they'd be untargeted debris with no warheads. An anti-missile missile is just additional debris with extra steps.

tjpnz• 3 years ago

Kids were pissed when their TV shows were stopped to broadcast the idiocy of another child.

AraceliHarker• 3 years ago

J-Alert is often disliked by the Japanese people because it has repeated false alarms and its warning sound is quite shocking. North Korea has fired missiles that passed over Japan’s airspace several times, but while some people get furious when they hear the news, they go back to their normal lives as if nothing happened after a few hours. Besides, where are we supposed to evacuate when they tell us to? Under the desk? In the river? On a hill? Some of the Tokyo Metro stations in the city center function as shelters because they are deep underground, but most people can’t do anything about it.

1letterunixname2• 3 years ago

Classic alarm fatigue.

A frequent, nonspecific alert is completely worthless if it's not both credible and actionable.

Japan Government warned citizens to shelter after ballistic missile launch

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