Audi is converting all factories to produce EVs as it phases out gas cars

https://electrek.co/2022/12/20/audi-is-converting-all-factories-to-produce-electric-vehicles/

by mfiguiere • 4 years ago

45 47 4 years ago

jleyank• 4 years ago

This is going to require a whole lot of batteries, amps and cabling to move said amps. Can europe handle this? N America? Outside these regions? And what’s going to happen when the batteries need to be replaced?

And are all the ice cars going to be just left to die? Will people be reimbursed for their now-worthless scrap? Will companies and part suppliers survive the transition - they’re going to Osborne their product line!

Arnt• 4 years ago

Converting 100% of production commences a transition. If 95% of Audi cars are scrapped within 15 years and other manufacturers follow similar schedules, that means the infrastructure change has to be 95% complete by 2038.

My guess is that other manufacturers will do much the same, and in the regions/countries where the infrastructure isn't updated by 2035, a lot of people will then buy used ICE scrap from more progressive areas instead of the new cars they might prefer.

pi-rat4• 4 years ago

This is happening in Norway now. Used ICE cars are getting bought up by foreigners and then shipped to for example Lithuania.

Sadly paywalled, but you get the gist: https://www-aftenbladet-no.translate.goog/okonomi/i/69P7w3/n...

potatochup• 4 years ago

No one is going to toss out their ICE car as a long as you can still buy petrol. Manufacturers aren't going to physically be able to produce EVs much faster than they could produce ICE cars, so there will be a slow replacement as ICE cars get written off in crashes, or become uneconomical to repair with age

dtagames2• 4 years ago

The lower cost of operation of an EV is quite an inducement to switch, and will leave many ICE cars behind as owners decide they are no longer desirable to own or drive. The range of electric car brands and options in Europe shows this to be true. EVs aren't just a new kind of car, they're better and cheaper to run.

anticensor• 4 years ago

Or as they get retrofitted with electric motors in an mass conversion incentive program.

UltraViolence3• 4 years ago

I just read an article on ArsTechnica where companies are making synthetic gasoline from wind and solar power. What will happen if this takes off, I wonder?

dtagames2• 4 years ago

The same thing will happen to these ICE cars that has always happened to them. Demand wanes. Values decline. "Nicer" used ICE cars become available at a lower price. Owners can recover whatever value is left by selling at a time of their choice, like always.

Some folks will choose to keep ICE cars even after the majority have switched, and this is fine, too. At that point, parts, service, and fuel for those vehicles will be harder to obtain and more expensive. Modern batteries will be good until after most owners have already sold or traded the car, and battery swaps are fairly easy with "skateboard" type (modern) EV designs.

Will the market step up to provide access to charging, etc? Of course! There's money to be made and lots of it. Will ICE parts and service suppliers (or dealers) survive the change? No, most will not. Many of the most expensive and service-heavy parts of an ICE vehicle don't even exist on an EV, and most service will be done at home by a truck that visits your house. Likewise, EVs will not be stocked on lots like ICE cars are, so there goes a big chuck of the dealer sales/service model.

Kirby642• 4 years ago

> And are all the ice cars going to be just left to die? Will people be reimbursed for their now-worthless scrap? Will companies and part suppliers survive the transition - they’re going to Osborne their product line!

Are we just going to let all the horse and buggys to die? Will people be reimbursed for their now worthless horses? What about coach companies and horse feed suppliers?

It's a transition just like anything else. There likely will be some deaths to some parts companies, if they can't pivot. That's healthy, although painful.

Also, Audi makes ~1.7 million cars a year. Replacing those all with EVs is a much, much easier task than replacing something like VW that makes ~8-9 M/yr cars.

Animatronio4• 4 years ago

292 million passenger cars in EU versus 7,8 million horses - no wonder nobody gives a damn about horses yet people care a lot about car batteries.

edit: also, nobody taxed horse owners extra just to clear the way for cars.

UltraViolence3• 4 years ago

I believe we can manage. Especially if Zinc-Sulfur batteries become a reality (with 4 times the capacity and based on commonly available metals).

neon_electro• 4 years ago

The market for ICE vehicles is going to dramatically change moving forward. Don't buy an expensive ICE vehicle looking ahead if you want to minimize the risk of high depreciation. (of course, this is a generalized statement, and as EVs continue to develop, the areas where EVs still can't compete will still provide stable markets for ICE vehicles. As that changes, expect changes.)

Alifatisk• 4 years ago

I am not fully sold on a electric vehicle, Isn’t hybrid a better option if you live in Scandinavia for example?

toomuchtodo• 4 years ago

https://blog.wallbox.com/how-norway-became-a-global-ev-leade... (Lessons From Norway’s Journey To Becoming The Global Leader In EV Adoption)

https://electrek.co/2021/09/23/norway-bans-gas-cars-in-2025-... (Norway bans gas car sales in 2025, but trends point toward 100% EV sales as early as April 2022)

https://time.com/6133180/norway-electric-vehicles/ (What Norway Can Teach the World About Switching to Electric Vehicles)

(Hybrids are counted in Norway’s electric vehicle stats, but are less than 10% of new vehicle sales)

AustinDev3• 4 years ago

I grew up where we would have a massive hurricane every few years that would knock out power for 2 weeks at a time minimum. I would never want an electric vehicle in this situation because you'd be completely stranded in an emergency. We'd keep ~100 gallons of gasoline in a caddy for generators and cars to use during these outages and it was ideal.

I'd pay a premium for a Plug-in Hybrid especially if I can use the motor as a generator for my house.

Faaak• 4 years ago

we keep ... gasoline ... for generators Well, can't you charge your EV with a generator ?

HDThoreaun• 4 years ago

Why can't you just replace the gas with batteries or use it in a generator?

bsder• 4 years ago

If I'm just bopping around town, my EV seems to keep a charge for a remarkably long time. Regenerative braking is quite remarkable while idling consumes quite a bit of gasoline. The EV might be able to hold its charge completely through the disaster if you're only going out locally to get water, food and gas.

Newer cars with auto-stop engines might make the comparison a lot farier for the ICE, though.

Epa095• 4 years ago

On one axis a plug-in hybrid is just objectively better than both ICE cars and EVs, it can use two sources of energy instead of one. But it comes with a bunch of other tradeoffs (which I don't know much about).

EVs work pretty OK in Norway. Some observations is that most/many choose to install a charger at home (or in the parking underneath their apartment), so the car starts every day fully charged. Another is that the grid is so built out that there is electricity "everywhere". Not necessarily enough for a super charger, but there is something. Most cabins have electricity for example. My hypothesis is that there are much fewer meters of road which is more than a kilometer from a source of electric power (at least in the south where most people live) in Norway compared to the US or Canada (relative to size).

pi-rat4• 4 years ago

Norway is already at ~80% EVs for new car sales. There are gas stations that are ripping up their pumps for fast chargers.

northwest65• 4 years ago

In New Zealand, during the first quarter of next year, they're putting in 4 new petrol stations in my city alone, FWIW.

jafo1989• 4 years ago

Norway is already at ~80% EVs for new car sales. There are gas stations that are ripping up their pumps for fast chargers.

What do you do about the snow plows, garbage trucks, ambulances, police cars, buses, etc....vehicles that are currently being used for several hours a day and can't have any downtime??

phpisthebest3• 4 years ago

I am not sold on Battery EV, however Hybrid seems to be the worst parts of ICE and BEV combined to make terrible vehicles that have extreme long term maintenance costs, and liabilities as you now have both an expensive battery and expensive engine either one fail and the car is totaled

neopw• 4 years ago

It doesn’t matter if you’re sold or not, in a few years you won’t have the choice.

UltraViolence3• 4 years ago

I would invest in oil companies if I were you. There are certainly going to be bottlenecks during the switchover since network capacity can't be increased sufficiently fast enough to accommodate all those BEV's.

The switchover is, however, unstoppable. Even though no one has asked themselves if this will save the environment (it won't). I've roughly calculated that we can half our oil usage if we all switch over to electric vehicles. But that's far from what's needed to save the world from climate change.

I also predict that BEV's will eventually be a lot cheaper than ICE cars. This will in itself have profound consequences since more people will want to use the road network and congestion is already a problem today.

Night_Thastus• 4 years ago

Hybrids were a nice stepping stone before modern EV tech, but I think they're fundamentally flawed.

They're constantly carrying around the weight AND space of both the EV (battery, internal charger, etc) and the ICE (gas, transmission, engine, etc).

This means that using either is quite inefficient in terms of total energy used to travel a distance, and neither can be very good. (Limited battery range, weaker engine)

They also have to deal with the wear and maintenance of both systems.

I would rather just have one or the other.

kennedy• 4 years ago

Hopefully this would drive battery innovation, making it cheaper and recyclable.

rad_gruchalski• 4 years ago

… by 2029.

Audi is converting all factories to produce EVs as it phases out gas cars

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