Ask HN: I've saved up $80k USD. What should I do with it?

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23089445

by neilgodwin • 6 years ago

50 107 6 years ago

news.ycombinator.com

It's been on my account for at least 3 years. Nothing ever seemed worthy of investing it. How does one find the confidence to invest large sums? Do you start small? How to get rid of the pressure knowing that money is just collecting dust?

ForHackernews• 6 years ago

https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/does...

Just invest in a broadly diversified index fund.

Start here if you're a total beginner: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Getting_started

neilgodwin6• 6 years ago

Thanks.

DSingularity2• 6 years ago

That’s a great low risk way to proceed, but is lazy in my opinion.

For one, those stocks include weapons manufacturers and other poisonous companies that maybe you wouldn’t want to support.

Second, it detached you from your underlying investment. In my opinion the ability to evaluate businesses is itself worth investing in.

Go pick a sector you are interested in. Compile a list of small - mid cap companies (I.e. companies worth hundreds of millions to a few billions). Read up as much as you can on them. What’s their business model? Who leads them? What’s their current state? Invest in the ones that stand out!

Not many people will tell you this because “investing in the index fund will give you amazing returns after 30 years and Warren Buffet said some!!”.

imakwana• 6 years ago

Thanks for mentioning this. Bogleheads Wiki [1] is a goldmine of index investing and asset allocation insights for every stage of an individual investor's lifecycle. Highly recommended.

[1] https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page

uhnuhnuhn• 6 years ago

Nobody can answer that seriously without knowing your situation in life. Age, family, job, etc.

neilgodwin6• 6 years ago

30, no family, software engineer, male

hef198982• 6 years ago

No idea why that comment ended up dead. But anyway, in that case, one potential thing to invest in is a own company. If that is something you are interested in. Not now, but when the timing is right. Until then, leave the money where it is.

One other thing would be an extended travel / sabbatical. As soon as this is an option again, of course. Regarding the startup thing, this is what I did after two years. Less money (keep some funds for rainy days!), but with a house and family.

rayhendricks2• 6 years ago

As someone in a similar situation, just throw it all in VTSAX vanguard or FZROX fidelity and let it sit for the next 30-40years. Dollar cost average over the next year maybe if that makes things less nerve wracking.

Obviously we are in a really crazy market right now, and while that might be disconcerting it is the case that s&p 500 has existed through 2 world wars and a Great Depression and still delivered returns.

mrvenkman• 6 years ago

Buy property, silver or gold.

Or - in the current climate shares in the airline industry.

MaxBarraclough2• 6 years ago

Why precious metals?

blaser-waffle4• 6 years ago

The perception that they will hold value while other assets are in flux. Because they're, like, metal, and won't rot, turn into water, or dry up, or have their value crash because no one wants to live in Detroit.

pvitz• 6 years ago

Please also mention how risky your advice is. Refinitiv calculates currently e.g. an implied probability of default of ~14% for American Airlines and there are price targets of 1$ for them posted by some analysts. The gold price is close to its all time high and silver doesn't move much at the moment.

lowwave• 6 years ago

Invest in local food and farmers.

byefruit• 6 years ago

This might already be you but if not it gives some useful advice for your situation: https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/geeq4t/i_h...

Myce• 6 years ago

I would prefer to buy property any time. People will always need housing. So while the price of the property is pure speculation, rent is a nice steady source of income.

neilgodwin6• 6 years ago

Assuming you had no property, would you be comfortable with your first purchase being something you can't yourself live in? Also, would owning mean a huge time investment maintianing it?

iso1210• 6 years ago

Only if people want to live where you buy the property. If you bought property in Detroit in 2005, how much rent would you have collected in the last 15 years?

headmelted• 6 years ago

This is true, but it's worth considering that investments in individual stocks or in index funds (I would avoid actively managed funds) are incredibly liquid.

If I decide the housing market isn't for me or I need to raise cash quickly, I could be forced to wait anywhere from 8 weeks to 18 months, or longer to get any of my investment back (even longer if I don't want to lose money through desperation to sell).

If I need to raise money from stocks or index funds I can get market value for those investments instantly during business hours.

sneak3• 6 years ago

Short answer: Dump it all in VFIAX and ignore it for about 30 years.

Alternately, wait for the housing market freefall that is scheduled to hit about 180 days from now, and buy a foreclosure or two.

EDIT: Cosigning the above recommendation about maxing out a Roth IRA each and every year as well, and of course maxxing out any company-matched 401(k) options.

neilgodwin6• 6 years ago

I've heard that the decrease in prices is expected for business housing, not so much in residential. What are your thoughts on that?

glofish4• 6 years ago

all speculation - nobody knows, everyone can claim anything, then survivorship bias will kick in, and those that happened to say the right thing will claim "expertise"

sneak3• 6 years ago

I hear a lot of things. I personally believe that the net result of all of this in a few (3-5) years when the worst part of it shakes out is that a lot of people who used to have equity will now be renting, but living in basically the same areas/levels: this is going to result in a very large net equity transfer to those who have cash on hand or cash flows in the next few years, at the expense of wage slaves who get totally fucked because their employers collapse over the summer and unemployment skyrockets.

Lots of large companies are going to do big layoffs to survive. Many others are going to dump their entire workforces when they go under entirely. Large industries like travel and tourism and entertainment and gambling and the related services for same are going to get scaled back for years. Money for the non-wealthy (and by wealthy I include pretty much everyone who knows pointer math or web programming, as even having $-20k in assets if you're able to make $100k+ puts you far better off than most) is going to become harder and harder to come by. I expect this to result in a lot of evictions when the courts reopen, and lots of foreclosures about 3-6 months after the layoffs peak in 3-4 months. All of the figures I am guessing at here are +/- ~10 weeks and are sketchy guessing at best, because who the fuck knows what's going to happen the rest of the year with any potential second or third waves of disease, or governmental closure orders, or even the outbreak of another world war.

It sounds like you have savings and income. Personally, with all of this uncertainty, I'd guard both as carefully as you can. Millionaires can afford to take bigger risks right now, normal people with nest eggs generally cannot, as it's not certain that the jobs will be as plentiful or high-paying in the next ten years as they were the last.

If in doubt, stick with the index fund, and just "set it and forget it". If you want to get more actively involved (or if you don't plan to change cities much and don't already own a home), real estate is almost always a good long term investment as well.

My advice would be markedly different if you were asking about $8M or $800k and not $80k, but $80k isn't a ton of money these days (I'm guessing it's less than a year of your gross income) so I personally would go lower-risk for the first few hundred k before ramping up the potential for higher returns.

stevekemp2• 6 years ago

Even if there were to be a massive freefall in housing it would take the banking system months, and probably years, to get round to processing all the mortgages which were in arrears.

Foreclosure is a slow, slow, slow process even at the best of times. People can avoid paying their mortgages and still be living in a property for many years. If you're imagining something that covers a significant amount of property that will take even longer.

neilgodwin6• 6 years ago

So, you're saying no fall in prices in the short to mid term is expected?

rayhendricks2• 6 years ago

It will be 180days + unemployment + CARES act unemployment (13w) so the better part of a year before the real defaults start. Not that it won’t happen it will be much more slow motion that most people will be comfortable with.

BTW I just lost out on buying a house, the market is still there but it is much lower.

glofish4• 6 years ago

overall awfully misguided advice. when you buy foreclosure you are buying all responsibilities for the home - past debts, mortgages, liens, future taxes, repairs etc - in addition you are betting that future appreciation will all pay off - not guaranteed at all. Homes are illiquid and a lot of trouble.

no one should just buy a foreclosed home without thorough preparation

jweather• 6 years ago

Buying a foreclosure is the same as any other home purchase -- get an inspection and title search to know what you're getting into. You're not "buying all responsibilities" any more than you are when purchasing a home the "normal" way.

bko• 6 years ago

Your short answer suggests you cannot time the market but over the long run, stocks generally go up so they're a good long term investment. Also this answer touts the benefits of passive liquid investments with transaction costs associate with it.

Your second answer goes completely the other direction. The answer suggests to time an investment in real estate, the least liquid investment with the highest transaction costs a typical investor could buy.

No one knows what housing market will be like 180 days from now, no matter how many times they're interviewed on CNBC.

I like your first answer better.

cityzen3• 6 years ago

The problem (for me) with index funds is that you end up participating in stocks for companies you may not want. For example, I don't want a penny of my money to go to Facebook, Amazon, Google, etc. Here's the VFAIX top ten holdings:

Microsoft Corp Apple Inc Amazon.com Inc Facebook Inc A Berkshire Hathaway Inc B Alphabet Inc Class C Alphabet Inc A Johnson & Johnson Visa Inc Class A Procter & Gamble Co

It has always blown my mind that the answer for "retirement" now is to put your money in the online casino.

As a father of two young kids, the last thing I want to do is contribute to the erosion of any sense of privacy my kids may have in the future. Using Facebook as a tool for retirement is just as dumb to me as using Facebook for anything else.

sneak3• 6 years ago

Choosing to invest or not invest in Facebook does not change a single thing about whether or not society as a whole chooses to use Facebook and whether or not, via that use, Facebook becomes powerful and further erodes societal values placed around privacy. Facebook would still be Facebook (and thus dangerous) even if it were privately held.

Facebook is Facebook because they have an app that people love to use, and that gives them the power to sell and control placement in the communication between friends and acquaintances back to those same communities. They're not powerful because of their share price.

Index invest away. I have Facebook blocked at my router but I still own them via index funds.

oldsklgdfth• 6 years ago

What do you do for retirement? Do you not have a 401k that invests in some index fund?

silicon2401• 6 years ago

Why VFIAX over VOO? does buying a foreclosure mean buying a house for cheap after the owners were unable to pay for it?

blaser-waffle4• 6 years ago

VFIAX is "Admiral Shares" and has a lower expense ratio compared to VOO. But it also requires a higher minimum investment -- $80k is over that limit.

Even if OP splits it into smaller, dollar-cost-averaging purchases they'll still be able to get VFIAX without a problem.

kratom_sandwich• 6 years ago

Depending on your age and background, consider investing in yourself, e.g. invest in things that help you finish your degree or boost your career or invest in your physical health. Returns of such investments might be considerable.

generalpass2• 6 years ago

Whatever you do, don't follow the advice of posters here at HN. If even one of them has valid advice, it is coincidence.

Ohl7eeX8• 6 years ago

This is basically liar paradox [1] :)

If it's true, then they shouldn't listen to you. But then they can follow advice of anyone, including yours.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liar_paradox

generalpass2• 6 years ago

This sentence is false.

"This sentence" = "This sentence is false."

[This sentence is false] is false.

"This sentence" = "This sentence is false is false."

[This sentence is false is false] is false.

"This sentence" = "This sentence is false is false is false."

[This sentence is false is false is false] is false.

...

keiferski5• 6 years ago

Do you have any interest in building a startup yourself? If so, $80k will last you 4-5 years for bootstrapping if you move to a low cost area and don’t have any dependents or other expenses.

ccmcarey• 6 years ago

I have no experience with this, but I would caution about starting a startup purely because you have enough money to run it for a while.

keiferski5• 6 years ago

...that’s why the first sentence of my comment is “Do you have any interest...?”

CalRobert3• 6 years ago

This is a great thing to do (for some people) but keep in mind that 4-5 years of lost income should be included in the calculation.

keiferski5• 6 years ago

If you don’t do a startup because of supposed lost income, frankly you shouldn’t be doing a startup in the first place.

neilgodwin6• 6 years ago

I sure am, but as mentioned in one of the replies, I would need an idea that I believe enogh in. Would you do it differently? How do you know if something is worth it?

hef198982• 6 years ago

dang, any idea why all comments are ending up dead from this user? Anything I miss?

keiferski5• 6 years ago

Maybe keep the current job, don’t touch the 80k, and spend your free time coming up with a good idea that you can see yourself working on for 5+ years? That’s my advice.

glofish4• 6 years ago

not such a great idea, you would risk both your time and your savings

- an investor would on risks money

- another team members risk only time

you would do both

alltakendamned• 6 years ago

Well, it depends on your situation, but in general you could consider:

- Do you have high interest debts? Paying off debt is a guaranteed return.

- Can the money be invested, or is it earmarked for e.g. downpayment for a house, new car, education, or other short to mid-term purchases ? Consider your investment horizon. If it's less than 3-5 years, consider leaving it where it is.

- Can you spend it on yourself, e.g. improve your earning potential or start a business ?

- If you want to invest it in the stock market, I would not try and pick stocks, but spread it across a number of well diversified funds. I also would not spend all the money at once but e.g. aim to invest a chunk of it every month over 6-8 months

Think within the context of broader personal finance considerations, there's already a few good links in the answers.

CalRobert3• 6 years ago

What do you want? How old are you/how much career do you have left to fix a screwup? How much of a catastrophe is losing everything? Are you responsible for other people's well-being? Where are you located? How do you feel about risk? What is your housing situation?

I used a similar amount to buy a very small house in cash, but this would be considered a poor move in many ways (mortgages are pretty cheap debt). It works for me, though.

WJW• 6 years ago

First off: Well done saving up! If you are paralysed about (getting started with) investing, I can recommend the books "A random walk down Wall Street" and the (very thick but well worth it) "The intelligent investor".

Especially the last one opened my eyes a lot about how to approach investing. I have the revised edition from 2006, though the original publication was in 1949. The 2006 edition has a section after each chapter discussing how the original chapter fared in the decades after publication. Without exception, the lessons discussed in the book from the 1929 recession and earlier turned out to have been very applicable in the dotcom crash of 2000, the "black monday" crash of 1987, etc. It really shows how most things are nothing new and gives a lot of perspective on the markets.

Reading up and understanding how the stock markets work can take away some of the pressure. Finally, there is no rule about having to start big or small. If it makes you feel better, start with $500 and see how it goes. The sister comment by "ForHackernews" about starting with a diversified index fund is good advice (and probably what you'd conclude anyway after reading the books).

slantaclaus2• 6 years ago

One Up On Wall Street, Peter Lynch

tohmasch• 6 years ago

I am currently reading this and I can't help but think every single page is a puff piece on how many stocks he owns and which opportunities he did and didn't see.

It doesn't feel like learning about investing for a beginner but rather an autobiography on his portfolio. What did you like about it?

helsinkiandrew• 6 years ago

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mback002• 6 years ago

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Also I will be traveling to the planet Luna in the upcoming Russian mining mission. I am looking for investors that are interested in sponsoring me in exchange for a percentage of my cut in the mining operation.

Please respond with your interest. I am very excited about the direct massage and the opportunity to work with you in a mutually beneficial business opportunity!

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jazzyjackson• 6 years ago

I dunno man I'd go for precious metals and gemstones so you can at least look at it while it collects dust. Personally I think old gold pesos are pretty cool.

https://www.apmex.com/product/1044/mexico-gold-20-pesos-rand...

orbifold• 6 years ago

Pick one or two ETF and set up a monthly amount to invest into them. You don’t need to invest everything at once and the monthly commitment averages out short term effects. If you want to be more active with a part of your money, you can also commit to buy a couple of stocks monthly. If you get rid of poorly performing stocks regularly and rebalance the portfolio you can declare them as capital losses that will count towards any future capital gains.

forgingahead2• 6 years ago

I would actually keep holding it in cash -- that is maybe 2 years of emergency funds if you are married/have a family?

Keep it in cash, pretend you don't have it (create a separate account that is just this sitting there), continue earning and saving. Anything extra you earn after this 80k base you can invest (simple things like index funds, dollar cost average in slowly).

basch4• 6 years ago

You could put 80K in the stock market, and if you have an emergency borrow against it at 2%.

forgingahead2• 6 years ago

This is terrible advice. Cash is cash, you can pay bills, buy food, get through hard times without needing to do anything but access it. Coronavirus should be showing everyone that random insane things can happen, so be conservative with emergency funds.

andrewmatte2• 6 years ago

I used to be a stock broker. But right now I am not your stock broker. This is not advice.

Great fundamental wisdom is that you can't (consistently) time the market but you should try to Buy Low, Sell High. That said, we experience a massive COVID crash. It's a great time to buy, but we don't know how long it will last or whether it will be long recession afterwards.

Index investing through ETFs is a great way to get diversity in a single financial instrument such as the S&P (large companies), NASDAQ (tech), or the Russell (small companies.) The NASDAQ has largely recovered but the Russell still has a long way to go back to February prices.

I have an old friend whose parents sold their home recently and gave him a sum. He's putting in 10% per month for the next 10 months, all in the S&P.

Leherenn• 6 years ago

What's the reason for splitting it in 10 if you know you're going to invest it this way already?

I would assume to be more flexible and be able to change strategy if something goes wrong?

andrewmatte2• 6 years ago

Dollar cost averaging means you aren't trying to time the market.

mback002• 6 years ago

I take it you are a young person... First max out your company 401K with as much contribution to the ROTH option as you can afford... invest it in the lowest fee broad market matching index fund (Hint: S&P500) you can find. OK... now hopefully you are down with this and you still aren't eating into that 80K... If you don't need this money for a house, Well... over the long haul investment in the broader stock market "historically" doubles investments every 7 years. So, I'd suggest you open a cheap online brokerage account and first invest as much as you can into a ROTH and drop both ROTH and excess into an (again S&P500?) index mutual fund with the lowest expense ratio that you can find... and... try not to look at it again for the next 30 years except to convert as much each year into ROTH as possible. After 30 years you will hopefully look back into your account and have about $1.5M in that account with... being able to pull some significant amount of that investment out _tax free_. If you do need some of it for a house try to avoid 30 year loans and elect for 10-20 year loans.

sayun• 6 years ago

You could look into investing it into crypto money. It obviously is risky, there is no doubt about that, but can yield you very good returns, even in the current crisis. There are a large variety of options depending on the risk-level you are willing to take.

If you are interested in trading, I can warmly recommend starting here: https://hackernoon.com/all-my-trusty-crypto-trading-wisdom-i...

If you don't want to go that deep, I can recommend the crypto.com app/platform, one of the most approachable options right now imo with more or less "safe" earning options for which you do not need to know anything about trading (my referral code: aenfe3qkjz): https://crypto.com/

tjansen2• 6 years ago

Right now is a very risky time to invest. It could be that it turns out to be a good time, because stocks are about 20% below the all-time high. But there could also be a second crash, when investors realize the real impact of the economic crisis caused by Covid-19. In addition to that, there's the risk of inflation caused by government bailouts. What I'm doing right now is keeping about 1/3rd in gold ETF as inflation protection, about 1/3rd in stocks ETFs and the rest in cash. Once the whole thing is over, I will probably move back to stock ETFs.

basch4• 6 years ago

Are you familiar with https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/golden-butterfly/

20% Total Stock Market

20% Small Cap Value

20% Long Term Bonds

20% Short Term Bonds

20% Gold

You could replace short term bonds with Cash, TIPS, CDs, Bitcoin.

tjansen2• 6 years ago

Not this portfolio, but I don't see the point of buying bonds anymore, at least when you invest a relatively small amount of money. Low interest, risk is relatively high compared to what you can earn, and no inflation protection.

RickJWagner• 6 years ago

First, you have to ask yourself "When do I want to spend the money?"

Only then can you decide the best way to invest it.

paypalcust83• 6 years ago

Find a fiduciary financial adviser / asset manager perhaps who gets paid based on service rather than periodic commissions.

neilsense• 6 years ago

/r/wallstrettbets is your friend

blaser-waffle4• 6 years ago

Only if you like tendies and tears

jpn• 6 years ago

1. Open a margin account on Interactive Brokers.

2. Choose a target volatility level you're comfortable with (I like 20%).

3. Buy shares of BRKB. Buy enough such that volatility of your portfolio reaches your target volatility.

4. Every month, update your share amount to maintain the same target volatility.

https://alphaarchitect.com/2019/05/22/volatility-targeting-i...

t0mas88• 6 years ago

At step 1 I was half expecting this to go towards /r/wallstreetbets and some terrible jokes.

s1t5• 6 years ago

some terrible jokes

I'm immediately shorting everything you own.

DrWhax• 6 years ago

same

parenthesis• 6 years ago

The world of investing is filled with a lot of bs, conflicts of interest, snake oil, fraud, and plain old incompetence.

Therefore, you need to pretty much learn enough that you could do it all yourself. At that point, you might not do it all yourself, but you'll have a decent chance of judging whether or not someone (advisor, robo-advisor, investment fund, index fund provider etc.) you delegate to knows what they are doing.

And by the way, I'm starting up a hedge fund right now. I can guarantee you an annual 20% return.

mrbonner• 6 years ago

Good job! I was nodding along and almost choke to dead from laughing at your last sentence.

gshdg• 6 years ago

Dollar cost averaging into an index fund.

After paying down any high interest debts and earmarking at least 3 months worth of living expenses into a savings account or other cash equivalent as an emergency fund.

There’s a great decision making flowchart floating around somewhere or other.

BrandonSmith• 6 years ago

There are a handful of them. Some simple, some complex.

Here is a complex one... https://i.imgur.com/c0p24cU.png

jklein11• 6 years ago

This flow chart is awesome! I'm not sure I agree on the order of all of the steps. For example you may want to put section 3 before section 2. Also, it looks like this is recommending saving for a downpayment on a house before maxing out your 401k. It makes sense but I'm not sure it is one size fits all.

sloaken• 6 years ago

Key question is: When do you need the money?

Depending on time frame is the key to deciding where to put it.

How to put it, the best advise, and I am doing this myself, is to put it in a little at a time. For my needs, I have selected 8 places to put the money. Based on 3 different times to need the money. I then looked at each to determine where I thought they were going. i.e. money in emerging markets I will not put into until a year from now. Real estate and banking I am waiting to the start of summer. Others started a month ago. When I expected to be fully invested. For each I assigned now much in total I plan to put in. This gives me an amount over time to invest.

Using your 80K, assume you wanted 3 pots. Pot A is 35K, pot B is 25K and Pot C is 20K. Assume you want to put pot A 35K in over the next 6 months - assumption being you expect the bottom of that market within that time frame. 6 months is approximately 180 days - or $194 per day - $1361 per week. So I would either once a week put in $1361 or every other week $2722. In your case, I would probably do it every week.

I highly recommend vanguard.

Plan two, follow Warren Buffets advice - he said when he dies to put in 10 amount in short term government bond fund for his wife to spend every year, and the rest in a S&P 500.

https://www.investors.com/news/warren-buffett-sticks-with-tw...

alexmingoia2• 6 years ago

I would keep 1-2 years worth of living expenses, then take the rest and put it in an index fund, and keep putting new savings into the index fund.

I would also move to a country with 1/4 the cost of living so that you're instantly 4x wealthier, and use the extra to take time off and enjoy life and build your own company.

rambojazz• 6 years ago

He has 80K, not 80M.

alexmingoia2• 6 years ago

I left San Francisco to live in a country where 80K can last 6 years without working. IMO, arbitraging cost of living is the smartest thing to do with your money if you’re an engineer and can earn USD anywhere, especially since OP is single with no kids.

msms01• 6 years ago

Donate a portion of it.

Spend it on the people you love (including yourself).

arcadeparade• 6 years ago

buy urbit stars

lcall3• 6 years ago

If you have any debt and less than 3-6 months of emergency savings, and do not own your home, I recommend starting with a free BYU personal finance class (I can dig if you cant find a link), and/or Dave Ramsey materials.

lcall3• 6 years ago

A comment is appreciated on down-votes; thanks.

oicu812• 6 years ago

I second this - pay off any non-mortgage debt (student loans, cars, etc) before investing.

https://www.daveramsey.com/dave-ramsey-7-baby-steps

lcall3• 6 years ago

thanks for the link

wprapido• 6 years ago

Burn it on hookers, booze, dope, travel, education

zicon35• 6 years ago

I am building a startup, invest in me. Not kidding. No really.

bmn__• 6 years ago

Wisdom of the crowd: https://old.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki

You decide whether to trust it. Considering your circumstances, the advice can be condensed to buying and continually investing into ETF and holding the assets for a couple of decades, as a few fellow HNers already said.

PappaPatat• 6 years ago

What about: nothing, just accumulate more, stach it and one day a need or opportunity will arise.

Might not be a popular opinion since we all are expected to optimize everything but 50 years in and this non strategy has made my financial live rather dull, which I like.

Ask HN: I've saved up $80k USD. What should I do with it?

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