Welcome to the new decade

http://twitter.com/phil_nash/status/21159419598

by tswicegood • 16 years ago

486 158 16 years ago

twitter.com

tswicegood2• 16 years ago

I don't post tweets here, but this one was just too good to not share with HN.

prgmatic2• 16 years ago

It was definitely worthy.

jlgosse2• 16 years ago

I mostly agree with Phil, but I still wouldn't call Microsoft an underdog. I mean, I recently fell in love with OSX, but my opinion still stands that Windows 7 is f'ing amazing, and still outsells (or is at least on more machines than) OSX by an IMMENSELY large proportion.

houseabsolute3• 16 years ago

And apple can't even remotely be called a monopoly, unless you are referring to their monopoly on products sold by apple.

hasenj2• 16 years ago

Apple is a monopoly in the sense that I can't drag and drop mp3 files into my iphone.

They impose strict control on how you can use your device.

They control the app store.

and they seem to moving towards more control; not less.

I was considering getting a Mac at the beginning of this year. I got an iPhone, and decided never to buy any iThing ever again.

I like good design and visual appeal, but not to the point of sacrificing substance for form.

fxj4• 16 years ago

apple has the monopoly on iphones. and every geek wants an iphone. so apple has a monopoly in the geek world.

microsoft has the monopoly on windows. and every pc in the world is sold with windows.this is what i call an effective monopoly. add that to the wannabe bing monopoly and you know why microsoft is not an underdog at all!

jomohke• 16 years ago

He's not talking about desktops: Apple still has tiny (but growing) market share there.

He's talking about mobile platforms. Microsoft is very much the underdog after ignoring the platform for so long. Apple had a monopoly over good smartphones by beating everyone to market by such a large margin, though it's hard to call them a monopoly now that Android has been selling so well.

guywithabike• 16 years ago

Agreed. A better assertion might be that Apple has a monopoly on revenues in the mobile space.

spoondan2• 16 years ago

Winning a particular market segment does not a monopoly make.

altano2• 16 years ago

Actually OSX's market share peaked with the debut of Win7 and has been declining since.

Your point stands, though.

sjs3• 16 years ago

There are more than a few of us who don't consider a machine suitable for real work unless it ships with a derivative of the bourne shell and makes it easy to run the same software we use on our servers.

My process to get up and running on a new machine is to change the keyboard layout to dvorak and run `wget -qO - bit.ly/newbox | sh`. On Windows I have to do everything in a Linux VM anyway, because I hate messing around with cygwin, coLinux, etc.

I know a lot of people will disagree with this, but to me a Windows box is a glorified Xbox with a web browser. Sure people work with them but unless you're using VS I don't really see the point of using Windows for development.

edit: I know I'm not representative of the larger population but I think there are more people switching away from Windows than to it these days.

nkassis2• 16 years ago

I pretty much just install emacs and I'm ready to go on any unix box(Until I get to emacs I can use Vi, useful for things like Arch linux)

mambodog• 16 years ago

Thing is, for a lot of people, a computer for 'work' purely means one on which they have first class Office (docx, xlsx, pptx) compatibility at the lowest possible price. Even Office:Mac is pricey, and not 100% identical (and no MS Access).

kenjackson10• 16 years ago

Windows and Mac worldwide marketshare is basically flat over the past year. You'd think that everyone is switching to MacOS reading HN. But you'd think that Linux had taken over for the past 10 years reading Slashdot. Get out of the bubble and see the world.

See http://arstechnica.com/microsoft/news/2010/08/windows-7-over...

jodrellblank• 16 years ago

What about people who are targeting Windows desktops?

senki2• 16 years ago

Don't forget that 2010 is the year of the Linux desktop!

wazoox• 16 years ago

Well, there may be no "year of the Linux desktop", but someday the "desktop" will become a thing of the past, and whatever comes next may be running Linux.

melling2• 16 years ago

2010 is the Year of Linux on the Phone.

Linux is outselling Apple and Microsoft.

kmfrk• 16 years ago

They may not be an underdog, but my image of them is Sideshow Bob walking around surrounded by rakes. Some of their products have launched with a reverberating thud, and their marketing campaigns make me cringe.

They are screwing up a lot, and they don't come across as great innovators (nor as people adapting to the world they're in) rather than a company who is still relying on the same core platforms they did a handful of years, if not a decade, ago. Granted, their corporate structure is different than, say, Apple's, and I don't want another Apple, but they feel gridlocked.

I don't know which term is the most apt for this, but it's not a gratuitous one.

I'm a Windows user myself, but I can't help but feel that I am putting my eggs in the wrong basket sometimes.

bbuffone2• 16 years ago

I completely agree, Windows 7 is amazing. After being forced to use OSX for the last two months, I can't wait to get back. The windowing system is better in Windows 7, multi-monitor is easier (Windows have their own menus), task bar works better, battery life is better, look and feel is better.

I will throw in Zune as the best portable media player as well. After having an iphone and using itunes. Zune is far better then the lastest generation ipods. Super slick and easy ui, better integrated store, also the zune desktop app is better. Subscription service is definitely the way to go. I pay my $13 a month music tax and can have any song I want, I haven't listened to this much music ever.

illumin82• 16 years ago

Are you kidding me? The single biggest fault with the Windows UI is that any event can pop up and take focus from the current task. Do you know how many times I've accidentally rebooted a computer during a critical task because Windows popped up and told me updates were installed and Windows needed to restart just as I hit enter?

This is just horrible, horrible UI design. A system notification or request to reboot should NEVER, EVER take focus. This is one of the many way that Windows punishes users every day.

jlgosse2• 16 years ago

[In reply to illumini8] Doesn't the iPhone push a non-modal (or maybe it's modal) dialog EVERY time you get a text message? Or is this an option most users have enabled? Not only that, but there is no notion of "focus" on iPhone, so it's even worse. Maybe that's just me being kooky though.

illumin82• 16 years ago

To be forward looking regarding OS marketshare, you need to look at what college students are running. When I went to college in the 90s, it was overwhelmingly Microsoft. We ran DOS, then Windows 3.11, then Windows 95. Microsoft got us hooked with mostly free (pirated) software and by the time we got to the workforce, a Microsoft monopoly was a foregone conclusion.

Apple is overwhelmingly capturing college marketshare. At some universities they are more than 50% of the market now. The workers of tomorrow will be comfortable in a Mac environment, not a PC one. By 2020 I fully expect Mac dominance of the corporate market as well. The retraining costs would be too high otherwise.

Aaronontheweb• 16 years ago

Apple's cradle-to-the-grave strategy hasn't carried over to the workforce the same way Microsoft did decades earlier - you can thank the depth of Microsoft's ecosystem today for that.

usaar3333• 16 years ago

I have no idea what will happen in 10 years, but I don't see training costs as an issue. When 99% of work is done in a web browser and one or two desktop applications, switching OS's is pretty trivial.

jff• 16 years ago

Among us engineers, it's not Mac but Linux that is taking the lead. Maybe more of us would use Macs if they weren't already what those dirty art kids use...

bconway• 16 years ago

Yes, there's no question that Windows 7 is a decent OS, but the desktop is becoming less and less relevant with each passing day. The new decade is about web services, cloud computing, social networks, and mobile platforms. Microsoft has been caught flat-footed on all of these and is playing a big game of catchup.

mrb• 16 years ago

"2.6x" is hardly what I would call "immensely".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_system...

(In June 2010, Windows 7's market share was only 2.6 times larger than Mac OS X's, when considering the market of "web clients", which is composed mostly of personal computers)

grovulent2• 16 years ago

This tweet almost reads like a Haiku. Goes to show how 'short' doesn't have to mean 'stupid'.

But there is still room for shortening. I suggest:

'There are no heroes. Welcome to eternity.'

tswicegood2• 16 years ago

To wax religious/philosophical, albeit a little darker, you could shorten this even more:

"All is suffering"

Now I'm waiting for the Lisper to point out the macro for it that has it down to a few characters. ;-)

grovulent2• 16 years ago

U+221E

pjscott• 16 years ago

I think you're getting Lispers confused with Perl hackers. The Lisp macro for that would be long and aggressively hyphenated.

In Cobol, of course, "All is suffering" is just implied, and doesn't require any extra characters to state.

sliverstorm• 16 years ago

I always preferred 'nothing endures but change', though it's admittedly longer.

mattmcknight• 16 years ago

Oracle remains evil, Google's nowhere close.

dieterrams• 16 years ago

This is about where things are heading, not where they stand right now.

patrickaljord• 16 years ago

And apple is not a monopoly, just acting like one (some times).

prgmatic2• 16 years ago

Dugg for its accuracy.

kloncks• 16 years ago

I'd say that compared to Oracle's evilness, Google seems quite innocent and tame. Certainly the most evil company in this whole debacle is Oracle, not Google.

napierzaza• 16 years ago

I don't know about that. What Google is doing should be illegal. What Oracle is doing is immoral.

jallmann• 16 years ago

Illegal? Immoral? No need to be dramatic. "Do No Evil" may have been a good tagline when you're a startup going against The Man, but unfortunately that doesn't always resonate when you're considering the bottom line going forward. And Oracle is only trying to maximize the utility of its new (and expensive) IP.

We are seeing some fascinating strategic plays unfold here. This is how the big boys operate; future Larry Ellisons, take note.

moultano2• 16 years ago

>What Google is doing should be illegal.

What?

ojbyrne• 16 years ago

Oracle never used "Don't be Evil" as what apparently now was a marketing tool.

Raphael• 16 years ago

Google caving on net neutrality (the joint policy with Verizon).

riffic• 16 years ago

a policy proposal, mind you, and it's certainly not evil

purpledove• 16 years ago

Speaking of evil, let us not forget Goldman Sach's treatment of Sergey Aleynikov. Makes Oracle look like Mother Teresa.

lrm242• 16 years ago

Huh? You mean the guy that stole intellectual property from Goldman in the hopes that he could enrich himself by working for a different company that tripled his pay? Should Goldman just say, "Meh, don't do that again?" What is evil about protecting yourself--whether you're an individual or a company?

dctoedt• 16 years ago

> Goldman Sach's [sic] treatment of Sergey Aleynikov > [m]akes Oracle look like Mother Teresa

I don't see how this follows. I'm no fan of Goldman Sachs, but the grand jury apparently was shown enough evidence to justify indicting Aleynikov for stealing Goldman's source code on his last day working there before jumping to another company. See the detailed allegations in paragraphs 12-15 of the indictment at http://www.docstoc.com/docs/25202761/Aleynikov_-Sergey-Indic....

ig1• 16 years ago

Agreed. While Sergey was probably just being stupid and GS over-reacted, the guy did copy lots of confidential propriety data and source code from GS servers to an off-shore server and then tried to cover his tracks by deleting bash history, audit logs, etc.

It was the later that actually triggered an alarm. In much the same way you'd be suspicious if you came into work late on a sunday night and found someone in accounts shredding audit trail documents, Goldman had to do something.

If the stolen data was used to make illegal trades and Goldman hadn't done anything about the breach than GS could find themselves subject to criminal proceedings for being an accomplice.

todayiamme• 16 years ago

... And there was never a better time to create.

bearwithclaws• 16 years ago

It reminds me of a quote by Chris Rock few years back: “You know the world is going crazy when the best rapper is a white guy, the best golfer is a black guy, the tallest guy in the NBA is Chinese, the Swiss hold the America's Cup, France is accusing the U.S. of arrogance, Germany doesn't want to go to war, and the three most powerful men in America are named 'Bush', 'Dick', and 'Colon.' Need I say more?”

rickmb• 16 years ago

Getting very tired of the "Apple is a monopoly" meme. Just because people keep repeating it doesn't make it even remotely true. Being a control freak in your own home doesn't make you a dictator for the rest of the world.

vegai• 16 years ago

It's a natural monopoly. Nothing wrong with that.

raganwald3• 16 years ago

Amusing, but only until you really think about it.

Java was always a restricted platform. Sun's lawsuit with Microsoft established that.

Google is hypocritical, but they haven't even come close to the "evil" of Microsoft in the glory days of "The Evil Empire." Microsoft used to have secret monopoly agreements with people. Google are openly disclosing their agreements and taking the flak.

Apple isn't a monopoly unless your definition of monopoly is "Controlling their own platform." Do they monopolize the Internet? No. Do they monopolize the market for phones? No. For phones that can access the Internet? No. Apple doesn't hold a monopoly and definitely hasn't done anything to abuse their so-called monopoly.

For example, MSFT shipped IE for free and killed Netscape. Apple shipped iTunes for free on the Mac and killed... Who exactly? Not even the celebrated Panic was killed as a company, just one product for a niche computer. Now Apple won't allow Flash on the iPad. Let me know when Adobe closes its doors.

Finally, the word "underdog" is not synonymous with the phrase "also-ran." Does anyone really think the bully that has gotten fat and can no longer beat up the new kid in the neighbourhood is now an underdog?

dingle_thunk2• 16 years ago

Apple actually annexed the open podcasting community with the podcast section of its iTunes store. They also managed to become a near-monopoly in the MP3 player market.

cookiecaper5• 16 years ago

There have always been lots of non-Apple MP3 players. They never had a monopoly or anything close. A majority market share, presuming Apple even had one which is not a forgone conclusion, is not the same thing as a monopoly. It was not a "near-monopoly", whatever that means.

gaius• 16 years ago

Yes but Microsoft's motto was always "a computer on every desktop". Nothing in there about "don't be evil".

For example, MSFT shipped IE for free and killed Netscape

I was working in the industry at the time, and I know exactly what killed Netscape. My then employer spent substantial amount of money, on behalf of itself and its clients, on Netscape server products. It sounds unthinkable now, but there really was a time when people would spend 6 or 7 figures on web, or mail, or directory server software. Version 2 of Enterprise Server to this day I still say was one of the best webservers ever written. Version 3 was a dog, and we, along with everyone else, went elsewhere.

Remember that Netscape Navigator was always free for most users...

raganwald3• 16 years ago

Like I said, Google is hypocritical. But still not even close to Microsoft's behaviour during its glory days. I dislike a number of choices the company has made, but there's only one thing it has done that I consider really evil. And no, the Net Neutrality proposal isn't it.

fxj4• 16 years ago

DOS ain't done till Lotus won't run

fauigerzigerk• 16 years ago

That's right. It should be Apple is evil, Google is trying unsuccessfully to be as evil as Apple, and Microsoft's confused attempts at being anything at all are clearly failing :-)

charlesju• 16 years ago

Great response, I couldn't agree more.

kenjackson10• 16 years ago

Google is more than hypocritical, Here's an example from a domain where they have effectively monopoly market control.

Their lack of transparency with AdWords. I know several people who believe they were the victim of click fraud, but complain that Google effectively does nothing. Why should they, there is no other viable search ad market, and they make money from click fraud.

And regarding monopolies, you're right that Apple is not one, but your test for being a monopoly is wrong. It's not about putting companies out of business. For example, Adobe makes money from multiple products. They could lose all of their Flash business today, and still be a viable company.

The problem with Netscape wasn't IE. It was that they couldn't make money with their business model.The Netscape browser didn't generate revenue for them, so losing marketshare there did relatively little to hurt them, except their ego.

And I think the term underdog for MS comes in a couple of areas where they never were the bully. Smartphones, even when they had a strong market presence, they never pushed hard in it. And search. In both of these cases, I think underdog is an accurate description.

cookiecaper5• 16 years ago

Do you know how hard it is to effectively investigate click fraud? What do you want Google to do? There's no way for them to know if that IP address was an intentional click or not. As far as I know they already recognize obvious patterns like massive inundation from a single IP. Other than that and similar measures, how do you expect Google to derive intent from clicks? They can't do it, they pretty much just have to assume that clicks that fit the "innocent" profile are innocent, even if a competitor is going to all of his friends' houses and clicking the ad over and over again to jack up your rates.

rimantas• 16 years ago

  For example, MSFT shipped IE for free and killed Netscape.

To be fair Netscape 4 was a total crap compared to IE4.

pvg• 16 years ago

Java was always a restricted platform. Sun's lawsuit with Microsoft established that.

How? Even RMS/FSF don't think so

http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/java-trap.html

and if we went by their stringent definitions, most of us shouldn't be (ethically, by their terms) using computers.

Both the Microsoft and Oracle lawsuits and associated ickiness are about implementing things you call Java or run Java. I can't think of a case of anyone running into a legal restriction merely for using one of the many Java implementations however they please. I do remember the JDK license telling you not to use Java to control a nuclear reactor, is that what you have in mind?

bad_user• 16 years ago

> How?

OpenJDK appeared in November 2006, 11 years after its introduction.

Not an ISO standard. The JCP is really a closed process, and OpenJDK is just a bone thrown to the community ... if you want to get anything in Java, Sun has to agree with it, and because the trademark is owned by them you're not allowed to create a fork and still call it Java.

Also having a certified open-source Java implementation that is not derived from OpenJDK is not possible, leaving projects like Apache Harmony in the dust: http://www.apache.org/jcp/sunopenletter.html

> Both the Microsoft and Oracle lawsuits and associated ickiness are about implementing things you call Java or run Java

No, the Microsoft lawsuit was for a breach of contract. Google never said Dalvik is a JVM implementation. They did their own VM with a very distinct architecture + a compiler that converts JVM bytecode to Dalvik.

Are you going to tell me that compilers that convert source-code from one platform to another are illegal under any license or law?

Then projects like ikvm.net (jvm to .net translator), or Cobol2Java, or Mainsoft (which allows running .net projects on top of Java), or in fact any compiler that converts source-code to C, or why not the Scala compiler (it's not a JSR) ... should also be illegal?

madair• 16 years ago

What's funniest about your comment is you're arguing with hyperbole on twitter.

>>> Amusing, but only until you really think about it.

When I really think about it I think, What great use of the twitter character limit for up-to-date populist rhetoric. When I read your comment I think, True believers are so predictable. ;)

dstein• 16 years ago

Meh, he stole that from my post on Techcrunch: http://techcrunch.com/2010/08/13/google-net-neutrality-video...

m0nastic• 16 years ago

Am I alone in thinking this was written in the style of the introductory text for chapters in Accelerando?

Welcome to the new decade

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