usaar333

Tech workers get paid in equity and many in the semiconductor industry are making far far more than this a year with all the equity appreciation.

How does delaying the release not solve anything? It puts everyone on a notice to fix all security vulnerabilities now

I hate waiting on hold for 30 minutes even more.

There's literally a link on the blog post to an article noting they hit $150M ARR.

Voice agents have capabilities and policy to alter customer state. Just the other day I called into a CC company and the AI waived an interest charge.

page is updated to state:

MCP-Atlas: The Opus 4.6 score has been updated to reflect revised grading methodology from Scale AI.

But even setting aside the leaked answers, the scorer’s normalize_str function strips ALL whitespace, ALL punctuation, and lowercases everything before comparison. This means:

I don't understand the concern here

True, but it gets you higher accuracy. Gemini had the best aa-omniscience score

https://artificialanalysis.ai/evaluations/omniscience

Openai has; they don't even mention score on gpt-5.3-codex.

On the other hand, it is their own verified benchmark, which is telling.

i'd interpret that as rounding error. that is unchanged

swe-bench seems really hard once you are above 80%

In Quebec it was a 20% jump in mother employment: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-31/affordabl...

And had all sorts of negative outcomes for the kids: https://www.edweek.org/teaching-learning/long-term-study-of-...

claude 4.5 gets 82% on their own highly customized scaffolding. (parallel compute with a scoring function). That beats Doubao

That wasn't a ceasefire violation. It was a six week ceasefire that had expired at the beginning of March

Physics seems better than veo 3 at least from demo videos

Except it is sublinear. Sonnet 4 was 10.2% above sonnet 3.7 after 3 months.

No it doesn't. If it were even linear compared to o1 -> o3, we'd be at 2.43 hours. Instead we're only at 2.29.

Exponential would be at 3.6 hours

No, this is below expectations on both Manifold and lesswrong (https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FG54euEAesRkSZuJN/ryan_green...). Median was ~2.75 hours on both (which already represented a bearish slowdown).

Not massively off -- manifold yesterday implied odds this low were ~35%. 30% before Claude Opus 4.1 came out which updated expected agentic coding abilities downward.

At this point the prediction for SWE bench (85% by end of this month) is not materializing. We're actually quite far away.

No obvious gains I feel from quick chats, but too early to tell.

These benchmark gains aren't that high, so I doubt it is that obvious.

Firstly, if your prior is that every previous startup failed, what does that say about your future chances of success?

The prior is the market. It isn't sane to use your own prior experience. (Works both ways -- if your last startup did great, shouldn't assume next will).

4% of YC companies become unicorns. How many startups do you need to work for before you become part of the 4%? That number is not a feasible number of jobs for one lifetime.

The bar (and what the model is calculating) is Series A from top VC, not YC Seed funding. That significantly increases odds. Specifically, ~45% YC companies get Series A, so it's more like 10% chance of a YC Series A funded company becoming a unicorn (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/pulling-back-the-curtain-...).

Model is change jobs every 18 months if not booming. A 1 in 10 chance is quite reasonable over a career.

I agree there is an issue with the event being too rare, but you can't just look only at modal returns. 2/3 chance of $0 (the modal return) and 1/3 chance of $10 million profit is still pretty good odds to work with.

Why is modal return so important? You'll work more than 2 jobs

It's a probabilistic model. It assumes (correctly) that the low probability of a home run times the home run's valuation is quite large ("expected returns" in the probabilistic sense).

this argument reads to me like "the returns on a Powerball win are so much higher than your projected lifetime earnings that playing the lottery is a smart financial move".

That's stronger claim than it is making, but yes in a sense it is saying the lottery can be a good move because the expectation is large - that's what VCs do after all.

Note that all the model aims to do is value the equity package. If a public company is offering more than what this model values the startup equity package as (and this often is the case!), it isn't worth it financially to work at that startup.

The value of the equity package is 4x higher than the FAANG equivalent equity package (at preferred/market pricing) - that's not the same as saying the shares themselves are worth that.

To sum up the arguments:

* Employment packages allow things a shareholder cannot do (functionally recall their investment), so the high volatility leads to higher package returns.

* FAANG equity grants (RSUs) are taxed at much higher rates

* Expected return is in fact higher on startup equity than FAANG equity (and you generally have no way to invest in the good startups directly aside from working for them).

I don't see why the market cap proves whether she is correct or not. You'd have to compare it to the counter-factual of what the value of a Figma subsidiary would be under Adobe today.

This is not obvious at all to me. Instagram (bought for $1B) is probably worth ~700 B of Meta's market cap.

$19.8 billion market cap to save everyone from doing research

An employee can repeat jobs over and over. Assumption is an exit eventually occurs - same thing VCs feel as well.

I didn't claim my risk is lower, but as my link notes I can quit and recall my investment while the investors cannot.

Startup equity is worth a lot:https://www.amafinance.org/startup_comp/

Not everything is adversarial. More cash pressure on the company itself can be bad for the company which is bad for you too.

I always take more equity. I wouldn't work for you in the first place if I didn't believe in your equity.

Sure, if you are single with no family and wiling to live outside California.