Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

Other systems: Induced pipeline currents affect preventive measures, HF radio propagation sporadic, satellite navigation degraded for hours, low-frequency radio navigation disrupted, and aurora has been seen as low as Alabama and northern California (typically 45° geomagnetic lat.)."

Apparently there are 100 of these per 11-year solar cycle.

dbcurtis• 9 years ago

what "these" do we have 100 of? X class flares, or X class flares facing the Earth? Because just by chance we are usually out of harm's way.

lgats• 9 years ago

Having subscribed to NOAA's alerts a couple years ago, I would say we might get an event like this once a year or two

colanderman4• 9 years ago

G4 geomagnetic storms. (I'm just parroting the chart I linked.)

meseznik• 9 years ago

Apparently there are 100 of these per 11-year solar cycle.

Seems that there are much more than 100 flares each cycle: https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/hessidata/dbase/hessi_flare_l...

It also seems that flares above X2.2 are quite rare. There have been only 10 of those since 2008: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24#Events

The latest flare, measured at X9.3 is VERY rare: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/top-50-so...

I wouldn't downplay this

colanderman4• 9 years ago

G4 geomagnetic storms, not flares.

RandVal30142• 9 years ago

That last link is extremely interesting. Just spent some minutes watching the videos of previous record setting flares.

The flares oriented towards Earth are very obvious due to the amount of static after flare ejection. We all exist in a narrow band of of environmental conditions, spooky thinking about how much energy is occasionally hurled towards us. Just a slight lick from Sol and we could be done for.

nomel• 9 years ago

Spacecraft operations: May experience surface charging and tracking problems, corrections may be needed for orientation problems.

What causes the tracking and orientation problems? Are they being pushed, or do satellites control their orbit?

cjhanks• 9 years ago

I would suspect they are using magnetometers for determining orientation. Those might be affected.

brandmeyer2• 9 years ago

It takes huge amounts of deliberately applied energy to change their orbit. This is about the influence of the radiation on the sensors and systems which help to control the orientation of the satellites. In particular, magnetorquers use the magnetic field of the earth to (very slowly) dump excess angular momentum from the reaction wheels and control moment gyros.

Solar storms can also add a weak torque onto the satellite, depending on the orientation and shape of its body and solar panels. Again, the satellite has an attitude control system to handle such things, but it will still suffer the impulse response from the transient.

koyao• 9 years ago

"Yup, that's why I was late to work this morning." :)

olivermarks2• 9 years ago

Does anyone have any thoughts on any relationships between the recent solar flares and magnetic storms and the hurricanes and Mexican earthquake? Is this coincidence or does major space weather events result in major earth weather? https://www.space.com/38057-sun-unleashes-decades-strongest-...

pera• 9 years ago

There's no obvious pattern between solar activity and seismicity, so our results were inconclusive

https://phys.org/news/2013-04-link-solar-earthquakes.html

delegate3• 9 years ago

There's also the eclipse preceding these events.

Of course there are relationships, I just don't think most of us (scientists or scientifically inclined) know how to see them, since some of the links are not in the 'rational' space.

Shamans still have better answers than scientists to these kinds of questions, but I don't think that most people want to hear the answers.

Either way something extraordinary is taking place, hopefully it will lead to something positive in the end.

BuffaloBagel• 9 years ago

Dude, you're blowing my mind which your causality warping.

jacquesm• 9 years ago

What a load of crock.

Eclipses have nothing whatsoever to do with solar flares, Shamans are con men and have no answers to anything relevant that scientists could not answer better and most people do not want to hear the answers any more than they want to hear other random bullshit.

If the links are not in rational space they do not exist, period.

cycrutchfield• 9 years ago

Uh, you sure you are "scientists or scientifically inclined"?

kakarot• 9 years ago

The hell? What training exactly does a Shaman undergo to receive his authentic certificate of Shamanism, and how is this superior to the specialized academic training received by scientists in the fields relevant to this phenomena?

phailhaus• 9 years ago

Claiming you have an answer is not preferable to admitting you just don't know.

urda• 9 years ago

You can't be serious.

Shamans? You think Shamans are a thing? Not only that, you think they are a better thing than scientists?

What kind of Whacky Friday antics is going on here at HN today?

kylek• 9 years ago

http://quakewatch.net/ attempts to predict earthquakes using solar factors (and things like outgoing longwave radiation). https://twitter.com/thereals0s has some snaps of their alert maps leading up to the quake (this one happened to be in their alert zone).

Edit- Also related-site http://spaceweathernews.com/ has a lot of pretty graphs to look at if you're interested in this stuff

olivermarks2• 9 years ago

thanks!

astrange• 9 years ago

That site has an interesting setup where they want you to pay them $2 a month to do work for their app, in return for youtube shoutouts.

Oh, they’re New Age scammers? Haven’t seen that in a while, but you can tell from the magical powers ascribed to anything related to “energy”.

Animats3• 9 years ago

Checking the PJM power grid's alerts:

Warning: A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 01:47 on 09.08.2017 through 17:00 on 09.08.2017 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater is in effect for this period. Additional Comments: SpaceWeatherPredictionCenter Extended original Warning of GMD Intensity of K7 or greater until 9/8/17 21:00 UTC (17:00 EDT).

Warning: A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 19:21 on 09.07.2017 through 02:00 on 09.08.2017 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater or greater is in effect for this period.

These are just warnings. No alarms or actions yet.

The effect of these events on the power grid is to induce DC currents between grounded points far apart. This reduces the capacity of some transformers by causing partial saturation. PJM monitors those currents at some substations, and will take action if transformers start to saturate. There are routine switching procedures for this.

For long-distance DC lines, it's a win; the system can use the power.

mrguyorama• 9 years ago

How common are long-distance DC lines and what are they used for?

My understanding is that the vast majority of power infrastructure is AC, and long distances are using High Voltage AC lines

sandworm101• 9 years ago

Oldschool telephone lines.

fastaguy88• 9 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current

jerkstate2• 9 years ago

HVDC is becoming more common for medium and long distance transmission lines because HVDC doesn't suffer from the "skin effect" where current is carried mostly by the outside of the conductor, and therefore you can transmit more power with less conductor with HVDC. The tradeoff is, it's much easier to step up and step down AC voltage (using solid state transformers)

netvarun• 9 years ago

Sf has one of them - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans_Bay_Cable

On a related note, there was a fascinating article on sf's dc grids by Spectrum https://www.google.com/amp/spectrum.ieee.org/tech-history/da... (pardon the amp link)

My office building taps into it to power the old school loading elevator!

bri3d• 9 years ago

HVDC is used for long-distance transmission where taps aren't necessary, and to connect disparate AC standards. Popular applications are undersea cables, remote generation facilities, and intercontinental or inter-country distribution. It's a lot more efficient than AC over distance as it requires fewer conductors and doesn't suffer from skin effect, so transmission losses are lower. And since you're already doing the AC->DC->AC conversion, there's no need for the connected grids to be synchronized.

As renewables (solar, wind, hydro) become more popular, so too does the need for reliable long-distance power transmission. With fossil fuel, fuels could be delivered to the point of generation - with solar, wind, and hydro, the location of the generator is non-negotiable and so the energy must be transported instead.

So we'll probably see more and more HVDC systems in coming years.

detaro• 9 years ago

For undersea connections, the water around it means the line has a lot higher capacitance. An AC link has to load/unload that capacity all the time and looses energy to it, a DC link doesn't.

Similar effects happen with normal power lines as well, so it also has benefits on long-distance connections on land. Since you need conversion equipment on all ends, it's typically used only for point-to-point links, not for lines with branches in between - an example might be connection hydro plants in the wilderness somewhere to more populated areas.

For links between non-synchronized networks, since conversion is needed anyways to match between them.

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-voltage_direct_current and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_HVDC_projects

vel0city• 9 years ago

I have not heard much about long-distance DC lines in the United States, where AC transmission lines are incredibly common. However, I have read long-distance DC transmission lines are becoming more popular with alternative energy sources in China, such as the Three Gorges Dam project.

https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/01/daily-...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC_Three_Gorges_%E2%80%93_Gu...

Loic• 9 years ago

In Europe you start to see some projects like that to connect renewable energy sources to consumption areas. The last notable one has a 1.4GW capacity[0] between France and Spain.

[0] http://www.eib.org/infocentre/stories/all/2015-february-02/c...

basicplus2• 9 years ago

New Zealand has 350kv 1200kw dc link between north and south islands

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC_Inter-Island

avian• 9 years ago

For long-distance DC lines, it's a win; the system can use the power.

Do you have a reference for that? They may be more resilient than AC lines, but I doubt these systems are designed to use power generated by solar events.

lithos• 9 years ago

Fun examples have been old telegraph operators having their lines work without power connected.

As for recent things I didn't even know long range DC still existed.

Animats3• 9 years ago

There's an app, "PJM Now", for monitoring what PJM is doing.[1][2] But unless you're in the industry you're going to be bored by 99% of what it shows you.

They haven't taken any geomagnetic disturbance actions yet, beyond issuing the warnings above. If this was affecting anything in the power grid, there'd be actions listed. So far, all is quiet.

(Background: PJM runs the wholesale power grid for the northeastern US and part of Canada. They don't own it; there are lots of different companies that own parts of it, and they collectively own PJM. PJM has control of the transmission hardware. The system is run from a control room in Valley Forge, PA and a backup center somewhere else.

They also operate the market in electricity, like a commodity exchange. Generator startup and shutdown decisions are usually made by the owners of units based on current price info. But when there's trouble, the PJM control center can order "conservative operation", which means the control center will tell generators to start up, shut down, or stand by. When they expect trouble, due to weather, high heat, extreme cold, or equipment outages, there will be orders to make preparations.

PJM had a major blackout caused by a geomagnetic disturbance on March 13, 1989. They're very aware of the problem. They have emergency procedures for when it happens again.

So what PJM says is not PR; it's the control room giving orders. If they're not showing emergency conditions in effect, which they're not today, the geomagnetic disturbance isn't hurting the power grid and isn't expected to do so in the near future. Every time somebody posts about some current geomagnetic disturbance, I check PJM's info. If they're not worried in the control room, there's probably not much to worry about.)

[1] https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.pjm.pjmnow... [2] https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/pjm-now/id1180491584?ls=1&mt...

Sharlin• 9 years ago

65°N 26°E last night: http://www.taivaanvahti.fi/observations/show/66829

I live at 61°30'N or so and there could have been a great show around these parts as well but of course it had to be completely overcast last night. And will most likely be the next couple of nights as well. Frustrating.

fsloth• 9 years ago

Historical reference: For example, there was a pretty big blackout in '89 due to space weather https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html

hyperion2010• 9 years ago

Might want to drop the 'just' there, since the warning was over as of 11am EST on Sept 8th (today).

Diederich• 9 years ago

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast is a nice resource.

3JPLW• 9 years ago

Looks like they're predicting larger than usual aurora effects as a result: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast

Still not getting too far into the lower 48 states, but looks like there should be good visibility throughout Canada and northern UK.

dawnerd• 9 years ago

There was a period last night that there was a maybe small chance it was viewable in WA/OR but naturally it was cloudy. So much for that.

eternalban2• 9 years ago

This guys [1] apparently predicted the Mexican quake last night. He has an interesting theory regarding connection between Solar activity and earthquakes. Let's hope he's a crank as he's predicting more events for the weekend.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/user/dutchsinse

rrmm• 9 years ago

Selective recall? Those guys predict a lot of earthquakes. You really have to look at it statistically in terms of all hits and misses of their predictions.

I can predict there will be an earthquake in the pacific ring of the fire in the next 72 hours, but me being right doesn't mean I know anything except that there are a lot of earthquakes in the ring of fire (which is something, but not specific enough to do anything with).

Also, if there is a link between solar activity and earthquakes, earthquakes should show an 11 year cyclic pattern, and they don't.

eternalban2• 9 years ago

I agree re. stats, but specific claims he is making is precisely this: for every deep magnitude m there will be compensating shallow magnitude M (> m) along the boundary conditions.

So it isn't just e.g. "earthquake in ring of fire" but rather "strong but shallow earthquakes along west cost and central America". He had also predicted a specific spot in Japan that apparently got hit today with a 4 something. (See his last video.)

Anyway, since now he is predicting a continuity along the fracking zones in the center running East and up to East Coast in the next few days, I guess we'll find out how good his methodology is.

The solar connection he is making is per his conjectured model of Earth (which he claims does not have a solid spinning metal but rather a sort of plasma that gets energy funnled to it via the mag. poles). So one would, as you say, expect to see a pattern of heightened activity correlated with the solar cycles. And I have no idea if that is in fact the case.

Let's see how things pan out.

god_bless_texas• 9 years ago

I was flying both a manned aircraft yesterday as well as a very expensive drone. I saw some really weird stuff all day long on both of them.

brandon272• 9 years ago

Do solar flares affect commercial airliners?

japhyr• 9 years ago

I was going to ask if anyone knows whether these storms affect the accuracy of GPS systems. Then I found this:

In calm conditions, single frequency GPS systems can provide position information with an accuracy of a meter or less. During a severe space weather storm, these errors can increase to tens of meters or more. Dual frequency GPS systems can provide position information accurate to a few centimeters. In this case the two different GPS signals are used to better characterize the ionosphere and remove its impact on the position calculation. But when the ionosphere becomes highly disturbed, the GPS receiver cannot lock on the satellite signal and position information becomes inaccurate. [0]

I'm going to try to figure out whether the navigation system on my boat has a dual frequency system or not. I'd hate to be "tens of meters" off when trying to navigate between submerged rocks, and there are lots of submerged rocks around here.

If anyone wants to share anything more about how these events affect the accuracy of GPS systems, I'd love to hear it.

[0] http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/space-weather-and-gps-syste...

dscpls• 9 years ago

Nice resource, thanks!

Note that this is exactly why they teach you not to rely on your gps for navigation between rocks. You should be using sightings, log and compass. And that's why you dont leave anchorage in fog.

tempestn• 9 years ago

Possibly stupid question, but could this be related to the earthquake lights seen in Mexico around the recent quake? IE could it be the reason the effect was so pronounced?

kazinator• 9 years ago

Do solar flares and or geomagnetic storms affect human health?

https://skeptics.stackexchange.com/questions/8367/do-solar-f...

Continued G4 (Severe) Geomagnetic Storming Observed

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