It's Time to Kill Surface

http://stratechery.com/2014/time-kill-surface/

by djug • 12 years ago

118 105 12 years ago

apozem2• 12 years ago

The insight this author provides into the market-focused side of consumer electronics is interesting. He mentions that Apple tends to lock up the high-end side of tablets and phones, leaving everyone else to chase the low- and middle-end of the market.

Although this makes sense, it is immensely disappointing. I would love to see more high-quality alternatives to Apple products, if only to encourage competition. We need more HTC Ones, not fewer.

sounds2• 12 years ago

Hmm, more HTC Ones running Win 8 Mobile might compete with Apple's build quality, and maybe, just maybe, be price-competitive.

What about Apple ditching DRM on their music?

And what about the thriving unlocking/rooting community for iOS devices?

They make high end iOS devices more palatable to early adopters who rely a lot on custom one-offs before things like in-vehicle integration become so commonplace that it's no longer necessary.

To be brief: the high end is painfully aware of the heavy-handed lockdown tactics that are currently tarnishing Apple's image.

apozem2• 12 years ago

True, I did discount the jailbreaking community. They're a great bunch, but it's such an uphill struggle to break new versions and new chips. I don't see how that's sustainable.

mark_l_watson• 12 years ago

I agree with the negative comments about the surface mini, but the new surface 3 looks good to me. It has been a very long time since I have bought a windows PC, but I am very tempted by the surface 3.

With a 4K monitor capable docking station, it seems like a device that could do it all, except for also having a smartphone.

bpicolo3• 12 years ago

Ditto. I'm actually really tempted to get the surface 3. It looks like some good engineering work went into it, truly.

frooxie• 12 years ago

I'm just worried that the pen (N-Trig this time instead of industry standard Wacom) won't be good enough for serious art creation. If the reviews are good, I'll buy it, but many illustrators are apprehensive and angry that Microsoft seems to have released a generally improved product but which may nonetheless be markedly worse than the Surface 2 for drawing.

slantyyz5• 12 years ago

> I agree with the negative comments about the surface mini

If they had released a Mini with the same pen tech for instant OneNote access, I think a lot of people would have been all over it, even if it was running RT on ARM.

Looking at my own use cases for note taking, I often use my Surface Pro in conjunction with my Macbook Pro when collaborating in meetings, because it's simply easier to have the note taking device doing only one thing.

I don't think MS realizes it, but I think there is a market for a small, reasonably priced "virtual notebook" appliance (that can do other stuff as gravy), especially since the NoteSlate turned out to be a dud.

drdaeman• 12 years ago

I don't really get this desire to kill "ineffective" things.

He writes it like Surface costs MS a fortune or distracts customers. Yep, Surface is probably not a win (don't own one, and not an MS customer, although it happened to me to use Windows 8 on some occasions), but who said MS can't have their toy projects?

hatred2• 12 years ago

Well $910m is not a small fortune too to say the least. So , I am afraid to say it's not a small trivial amount too.

And I don't think Surface is a toy project. A $B business can't be a toy project even how cash rich you are.

MAGZine• 12 years ago

I'm not sure that I agree with the author's premise. The way it reads is like "Microsoft had a few bad runs, so they should stop trying."

In fact, I wholly disagree with some of the author's content analysis. Example:

The hardware capability that Nadella claims Surface leverages only exists because of the decision to make Surface. Nadella is basically saying Microsoft needs to make Surface because Microsoft makes Surface.

BUT, in the quote, the first thing that Nadella says IS "We are not building hardware for hardware’s sake." What Nadella DID say is that essentially, they're trying to build a complete ecosystem. Furthermore, this wasn't even listed as one of the goals that the author identified, although I feel that it was certainly one of Microsoft's primary goals with the surface. I don't think that Microsoft was thinking "think of all of the money we'll make off of hardware," especially when all of these hardware companies are flailing. Business decisions at a large company like Microsoft are calculated, if nothing else.

Personally, I think Microsoft should keep going. The only reason that I'm buying Macbook Airs at this point is because I like having a BSD environment at my fingertips. The Surface's hardware is actually better than a MBA's[0], and Microsoft seems committed to the product.

[0]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6630053 - though, note that the hardware has been refreshed. Arguably just as fast, but much lighter and slimmer, too.

cwe• 12 years ago

"The Surface's hardware is actually better than a MBA's"

For another week and a half.

wlesieutre• 12 years ago

The MBA just updated a few weeks ago. Admittedly, the Surface Pro 3 isn't shipping for a month, but I think it'll more than a week and a half before the next Air revision.

freehunter2• 12 years ago

If I had to speculate as wildly as the author did, I'd have to say that Microsoft is building their own hardware simply because their hardware partners are failing so hard. The author touched very briefly upon that line of thinking but didn't linger upon it as long as I would have liked.

My speculation? Microsoft saw the death of Sony, Acer, Dell, and HP and knew they needed hardware to sell their product. If every hardware company went out of business, so would Microsoft. You could make the argument that by getting their own hardware line Microsoft hastened the death of the PC makers, but it's akin to splashing some water on the Titanic as you jump overboard. It's going to make it sink a little quicker, but it's not going to change the final outcome. The only difference is, you survive when all is said and done.

If we end up with Surface v Thinkpad v Macbook, we will have won. Even better if someone like System76 can get in on it too. The last few years have proven that there are a lot of people out there who don't really want to see Microsoft go out of business (and kill Apple's only PC competition), but rather see them get their shit together. That's a good thing.

coolsunglasses• 12 years ago

System76 resells Sager laptops and the hardware quality and attention to detail is not good. Sager is designed around value-sensitive hardware hungry gamers and the like, often young people. So you get a crappy shell with a nice CPU or GPU in it. Very German.

I would...dearly love a competitor to the Thinkpad for Linux-friendly high quality laptops but it just doesn't exist yet. Lenovo has not been stewarding the traditional Thinkpad fanbase well, there's a market opportunity that people haven't capitalized on.

They haven't capitalized on it because making good hardware is really hard.

Touche3• 12 years ago

Every version of Surface has been a high quality device, on the same general level as Apple. So I guess reason 2 is a win.

As an owner of a Surface RT, lol. That piece of junk has turned me of to the brand forever. Whether it was apps taking 5-10 seconds to load or having to unattach and reattach the keyboard 1 out of ever 5 uses, I can't imagine ever wanting to own a Surface again.

recursive• 12 years ago

As an owner of a Surface 2 pro, I've never experienced any of those problems. Perhaps they fixed somethings in revision 2. (Of course, the quote does say every version.)

thebooktocome• 12 years ago

My boyfriend had some issues with the Pro 1 keyboard along the lines of the grandparent comment, but MS was quick to replace his Type Cover and followup that the replacement worked properly.

I'm quite happy with my Pro 2 as well, but I have no plans to purchase any of the covers when a Bluetooth keyboard can be had for 30 bucks.

bpicolo3• 12 years ago

It's primarily an issue with the RT, which is an ARM device.

warrenmcwin• 12 years ago

"turned me [off] to the brand forever"

One bad experience with inferior hardware led to a boycott? Rough.

Touche3• 12 years ago

A $600 (I think? maybe more) bad experience.

micv• 12 years ago

Refusing to buy more from the company that sold him a pig in a poke is really the only useful recourse he has in our society unless he has an Internet megaphone to fall back on. Money talks and all that.

rlu4• 12 years ago

Perhaps the quote was going for build quality, which the Surface RT did well in. I agree though that the processor speed + software failed it :(

Windows improvements + cpu improvements in Surface 2 make the experience much, much nicer. No longer do you tap a "new email" icon and wait 2 seconds for the action to register. The fact that it used to behave like that continues to blow my mind.

Go to a best buy or Microsoft store and play around with a Surface 2. You'll see that it's much better than the Surface RT, though I understand if you're reluctant to drop another ~500 dollars on the same brand. At least for now...

Touche3• 12 years ago

Isn't the fact that they haven't announced a Surface 3 non-Pro an admission of something?

watty• 12 years ago

It's kind of strange this comes out after the Surface 3 announcement, which from what I've read seems to be extremely well liked. Blogs, Reddit, HN all seemed to have a lot of positive things to say about it (especially considering it's from Microsoft).

That doesn't mean it will DO well but I wouldn't be surprised if it did better than previous surface generations combined.

Aoyagi• 12 years ago

I'm all for killing Surface along with WinRT, but I believe Surface Pro series is quite useful, especially the latest 12" Pro 3. It's just that MS in its own "cloud and mobile" stupidity keeps marketing the device(s) as media consumption devices with a few "apps", not work tools with full Windows. I would even say that Surface Pro is the best thing MS has come up with since 7.

tammer• 12 years ago

I don't think this is contrary to the article. The problem is not that nobody will buy the Surface Pro, or that it's not a great device - it's that not enough will buy it to justify an entire hardware business.

Perhaps we'll be proven wrong, but I think the article is correct in assuming that the device won't win over large corporate purchases and isn't a challenge to Apple's hold on consumers. It still screams 'niche'.

stan_rogers• 12 years ago

It's trying to scream "reference implementation!!!" I'm sure that MS wouldn't mind earning the odd nickel here and there from Surface Pro sales, but they have a much deeper interest in pushing a unified mode of computing, with one device becoming the device you need when you need it. For better or worse, that seems to be their model for the future of their OS and application software, and they seem to understand that a traditional form factor laptop or desktop is not going to be that device. The object of the game seems not so much to be to sell Surface units per se, but to persuade people to want Surface-like (or other convertible) units where there software they want to sell will make more sense.

leorocky• 12 years ago

I'm in love with the Surface hardware, but the article makes a compelling business argument. As a consumer I hope the surface Succeeds, but I agree that it seems unlikely that Microsoft will see good returns on it.

doczoidberg2• 12 years ago

Surface pro 3 is exactly what Microsoft and the Windows Ecosystem needs: an innovative productive device which can compete with Apple products. PC makers like Lenovo, Acer and even Samsung seem not to have visions for new devices. Surface pro 3 is the first 2in1 device which is usable as tablet _and_ pc/laptop.

So killing the Surface is the badest thing Microsoft could do!

bryanlarsen• 12 years ago

The Yoga 2 Pro is very usable as a tablet, in my experience. Not as good as a Surface, obviously, but it is very usable, and in return you get a much better laptop experience.

Zaephyr• 12 years ago

I work with a client that is using yogas. They are a great alternative to convertible (2-axis hinge) laptops and tablets (iPad & Android) - plus MacBook Airs. I've not worked with Surface, but think I would likely prefer the Yoga's laptop keyboard to the Surface's cover keyboard.

doczoidberg2• 12 years ago

Of course it always depends on how you use it. If you mostly use it on your lap and type things into keyboard a more laptop device is better. My usage is in average per day:

- 8 hours productive use on my desk with 3 monitors (form factor here is irrelevant, I just need a decent intel machine here)

- 2-3 hours mostly consuming use on bed and sofa (no need for keyboard here)

You could say that I just should use 2 devices but why should I when I can have it in one device? Another big point about the Surface Pro 3 vs other products is that you can use it for notes and drawings. There will always be compromises in 2in1 devices. For me the SP3 is the best 2in1 till now.

warfangle2• 12 years ago

XBox wasn't just a trojan horse into the 'three screens and a cloud' game.

It was a calculated means to solidify DirectX as 'the' graphics library for games.

sounds2• 12 years ago

Can you comment on the shift to mobile gaming and GLES?

warfangle2• 12 years ago

I like it, but DirectX is still king of the game when it comes to high powered gaming. It was a calculated move to keep windows relevant as a gaming platform while still edging in on the console space. Keep in mind that the original Xbox came out about the same time OSX was launching and Apple was gaining mindshare.

There's moves to OpenGL/GLES everywhere but the screens that most gamers typically hold dear: the one on their desk, and the one on their wall.

ntakasaki• 12 years ago

These goals must have been important, because Surface came at a significant cost. Contributing in a meaningful way to the bottom line entails selling at much greater numbers than Surface has to date. Remember, volume was always the goal; that’s why Microsoft made so many Surfaces that they had to eventually take that $900 million writedown on unsold inventory. Clearly this goal has failed as well.

They currently have $88 billion in the bank plus assets, so they are better off returning that to shareholders instead of trying to make better hardware? OEMs just make cookie cutter junk, just look at the state of monitors or bundled crapware as an example. Lenovo is making some good stuff and they're reaping rewards in the marketplace even while competing with Surface. Why the call to reduce the competition?

However, when it comes to PCs, Microsoft needs to focus on fixing Windows 8, and leave the devices up to its partners, especially Lenovo. Lenovo knows how to compete in mature markets,8 makes great hardware, and Microsoft should see them as their best partner, not a competitor

And yet, Lenovo continues to bundle a ton of crapware and junkware that hooks deep into the system.

mephi5t0• 12 years ago

Google's Nexus 7 was a OK device until after a few month of usage it started to lag like hell. a lot of previous android phones lagged like it was their job. Should Android or Nexus products be killed too?

kosei• 12 years ago

The Surface Pro 3 is the first device that made me want to buy a Microsoft device. That's not to say that they shouldn't kill it, but it would make me sad (similarly to how they killed Zune just as soon as it became a reasonable competitor).

vitalique• 12 years ago

Both Surface and One are thus stuck in the middle, appealing to no one.

What? Not everyone needs, wants or can afford (hi EU!) Apple devices, which are loosing more and more ground to competitors every quarter.

cshimmin• 12 years ago

Yeah, it's a very well-written article, but here is where I disagree with the analysis.

The problem, though, is that Surface’s sales numbers show that device quality is not the primary sales driver for Microsoft customers.

Here's the thing: I really want a surface pro. It looks like an amazing piece of hardware, and the keyboard is so essential to what I want to do with it. The only problem, is I don't/can't/won't use windows! I simply require a terminal and a *NIX environment. If there was a really nicely executed linux distro that integrated perfectly with Surface, I'd be all over it for sure. But of course (and understandably), MS is simply not interested in catering to this solution.

rlu4• 12 years ago

I have no idea but is it not possible to turn off Secure Boot on a surface pro and install Linux on it?

If you can even get that far though, I could see the touch cover not working without some sort of driver that only exists for Windows..?

nilkn• 12 years ago

I'm in the same boat. I don't mind the Windows UI, but without a proper *nix environment I just can't justify spending the money on a Surface Pro. I currently have both a MacBook and an iPad and I really don't like carrying them both around. Having a laptop/tablet hybrid makes perfect sense to me, but only if it can run the sort of OS that I need.

I can see the Surface being a really awesome device for business managers outside of the technology industry, where Windows and MS Office are still extremely widespread. As a programmer though whose workflow is deeply Unix-y, it just wouldn't work.

dublinben2• 12 years ago

Have you seen the XPS 13 Developer Edition? It has a full HD touchscreen and comes loaded with Ubuntu. It's the best you can do if you want a touch capable Linux ultrabook.

MaysonL• 12 years ago

Google surface pro hackintosh and wait a few months for the community to figure the 3 out.

AaronFriel• 12 years ago

    Meanwhile, Sony is leaving the OEM business, Dell is restructuring, HP can’t
    decide whether to sell or not; Acer is barely afloat; only Lenovo seems to be
    prospering (and now Surface Pro is aimed directly at their Thinkpad lineup).
    When you consider the original goals, none of which have been met, and the
    original dangers, all of which have come to pass, the only conclusion is that
    Surface is a failure.

Microsoft's OEMs are keenly interested in leaving the low-margin PC business for greener pastures. Of course they are: inventory and market diversity are the horrors of their industry. If they push new hardware too hard, they devalue their inventory. They have to maintain inventory levels because they can't afford to have their competitor's eat their lunch. That is, capitalism works and it was a race to the bottom. I doubt any of the companies mentioned there have a supply chain as efficient as Apple's. To Jobs' credit, his protege was the supply chain guy. Steve knew that living in the margins isn't viable when you're directly selling your own stuff.

Lenovo is privileged as their company was a supply chain company. Until they owned the logos that go on your computer, they owned all the parts underneath or figured out how to put them together. Seems natural they're doing better than most. This supply chain company eating the company that puts the logos on is important for what comes next.

So the curious conclusion: kill the Surface. Kill the Surface because it didn't meet its stated goals - I disagree. Kill the Surface because it didn't save the consumer PC industry - I disagree. Welp. It sounds like the conclusion is to kill one of the only things the consumer PC industry has going for it. If they kill the Surface, it means they're going to rely on Lenovo to make the only handhelds that consumers want a Windows logo on.

This article seems to suggest that Nadella or his strategy team see this all. I don't know if they do. This article also seems to suggest they've seen this and said, "Yes, I like the relationship the operating system company Google has with its OEM, Samsung." Which strikes me as delirious thinking at best. I can't imagine Google is happy to have Samsung eating Android's lunch and subsuming the Google logo, or Nadella thinking that is an enviable model for the future of Microsoft.

rayiner2• 12 years ago

It sounds like the conclusion is to kill one of the only things the consumer PC industry has going for it.

Seriously. Surface Pro 3 is the first Windows machine I'll be buying since a Dell I bought for college in 2002. It's the only thing remotely exciting to me in PC-land. I don't know if it'll be commercially viable, but it's the only standout in the race-to-the-bottom PC industry.

dublinben2• 12 years ago

Have you seen the XPS 13 or the Thinkpad Yoga? They're both pretty compelling laptops, and easily stand out from the crowded mass of plastic junk notebooks.

ignostic• 12 years ago

I couldn't agree more: Microsoft is trying to target a demographic that doesn't exist. I was the target, and I wanted one, but it never made sense once I looked into it. The high-end model's price was way too high for a tablet alone, but it was similar in price to my higher-performing laptop, and nowhere close to replacing my 3-year-old gaming desktop.

It can't be the "do anything" device - if I still need 2 devices to get my stuff done, I might as well buy one that's less expensive and will give me the same function I need.

I do think Ben built a bit of a straw man out of Nadella's comment, though.

"Nadella is basically saying Microsoft needs to make Surface because Microsoft makes Surface."

That's a very selective interpretation of what Nadella said. He said he wanted to integrate the company's products into a single experience. He didn't say that's why the Surface exists, nor did he say the reason behind building hardware and products is for the sake of integration. He's just saying the vision is to integrate the experience. Ben makes it sound like there's no other reason behind it, but Nadella may very well see reasons for integration that he didn't go into (there).

dworin• 12 years ago

Are you sure it doesn't exist? I've seen a lot of them in a corporate setting, and in increasing numbers. When I ask what people like, the answer is almost universally that an iPad is good for watching movies, but they can actually get work done on their surface so they don't need to bring a laptop along anymore.

nivla5• 12 years ago

Microsoft is trying to target a demographic that doesn't exist

Well it does exists, its just a small niche for now and the price does play a huge role into it. I am one of the target because I travel a lot and can't be bothered to carry my 9.5pound laptop with me. Waiting at the airport? Just connect to the nearest Wifi, turn on VPN, start up your regular work environment (x86 apps - VM/Vagrant,VS etc) and get that work completed. When it gets too much, switch to the start screen (tablet mode) and play some video, angry birds or 2048 or whatever silly thing. Once I get back home, its automatically syncs the changes to my regular laptop (using BitSync) and I can continue where I left off. Its the convenience I payed the price for. I am still on my Surface Pro 1 and its going good, although it does irk me to see two new versions even before my original warranty is over.

Had the Surface Pro been sold for < $399, it be easily become a top selling tabletPC. Well why not its a full fledged i7 PC capable of dual booting to other OS (secure boot can be turned off) and it runs all your favorite x86 apps. However, the processor itself its too expensive to make that happen. Although I am crossing fingers for AMD's skybridge that mashes up both x86 and ARM in one CPU.[1]

[1] http://www.anandtech.com/show/7989/amd-announces-project-sky...

debaserab2• 12 years ago

I think it does exist but the surface just isn't there yet. The concept of being able to use one machine to sit down and do heavy work and then grab just my screen to head off to a meeting is very appealing to me personally. It almost seems like the inevitable evolution of laptop computing.

I think they got the hardware down right (although I cannot attest to that since I don't own one) but where they are really coming up short is software. If I'm going to drop that much cash to buy a portable device, it better have apps/programs on it that have a better experience than what Windows offers.

ericcumbee• 12 years ago

I do not really see any lenovo device that matches up with any of the Surface Pro line. I had a Thinkpad Tablet 2 and it was a piece of junk compared to my surface pro 2.

microtonal2• 12 years ago

For those not good at math, that’s $400 more than an AppleTV, and completely unapproachable for anyone who does not care about gaming. In short, it is not enough to consider how the Xbox is doing relative to consoles; the Xbox must be evaluated based on how it is aligning with and contributing to Microsoft’s overall strategy, and in that light, it is an unmitigated disaster.

But the XBox 360 has a nice price point. Sure, it's more expensive than an Apple TV, but well-fit as a media center plus you can play games. The current generations of Apple TV are far to underpowered to play any serious games.

The fact that the XBox 360 is still on the market clearly states Microsoft's (and Sony's) strategy: the XBox 360 is a nice console that competes with media centers, the XBox One is for hard core gamers who want the latest and greatest.

I am not worried about the XBox One, the price will go down eventually and when it's in the 200-250 range, it'll replace the XBox 360.

We did by an XBox One, even though we are only casual gamers. The console will probably stay relevant for five or six years. So, it's a good investment.

hatred2• 12 years ago

I am curious to know though as to if you did end up comparing the Xbox One with a PS4 before buying it and if yes what factors influenced your decision ?

PS I want to upgrade too from my old Xbox 360

mhurron• 12 years ago

Does it play the games you want?

Hardware specs between consoles are really pointless things to compare. It's like trying to compare Windows or Linux for your desktop when you know you absolutely must run Visual Studio.

microtonal2• 12 years ago

Yes. The reason is that I had a Playstation 3. When I bought it (~2008 or 2009), Sony promised a lot of mediacenter features. In the end they were only delivered on my PS3 (in The Netherlands) very late.

XBox 360, on the other hand, had many new features since its introduction.

So, I trust Microsoft more than Sony when it comes to promises ;).

wbillingsley• 12 years ago

It might be worth waiting until the Surface Pro 3 has actually been released (20 June) before declaring that it isn't selling.

The pen is it's unique selling point and niche (there's quite a few hybrid tablet/laptops, but not with pen input), and given that Pro 2 (with a less helpful aspect ratio for that) tended to be "out of stock" much of the time, it seems to be in reasonable demand.

beloch• 12 years ago

Microsoft is not a zero-fat product generating machine like Apple. They're almost a university that happens to produce a few products on the side. Somehow, they're still profitable. They're not as profitable as Apple, but must every company stockpile cash like Apple does before they can be considered successful?

This article argues that MS should kill the Surface because it hasn't been a runaway success. By this logic, the Xbox should go too (the article says as much) and hey, even though he didn't mention it, why not the whole mobile end of the business too? Hey, Windows 8 is a total failure (the article says as much), so why is that sacred cow not on the block too? Microsoft is failing at everything and they should just quit. That leaves... what? Corporate? Embedded servers?

Seriously, this argument is a hot mess. Microsoft obviously has to make smart business choices about what things they can afford to pursue, but a lack of immediate success is not adequate grounds to sever themselves from their aspirations. MS wants to get into the hardware market because it's made Apple gigabuckets of cash. The surface, although not the most commercially hot commodity out there, is a good piece of kit and has some dedicated fans. It's fundamentally different from anything else on the market right now. i.e. It's a tablet that's actually good for more than mere consumption. To date, price has probably been the biggest thing holding it back. Well, prices have a funny way of coming down over time. The Surface's day may yet come.

acgourley• 12 years ago

Your last point is important - for many people the Surface tablet isn't competing with the iPad, it's competing with the MacBook Air. And it's already winning on price there.

Tobani• 12 years ago

And it's already winning on price there.

Is that still true if you need a keyboard?

Price doesn't seem to be the deciding factor for the people buying apple hardware.

greedo3• 12 years ago

In what universe? The cheapest Macbook Air is $899, this comes with an i5, and 128GB RAM, and a keyboard.

The comparable Surface Pro 3 is $999 sans keyboard. Adding a keyboard will run you another $130. Total cost of $1129.

So you're losing on price by $229.

Now you're thinking, the Surface Pro 3 has a 12" screen. We'll compare it to the 13" MBA:

$999 with the i5, and 128GB standard. KB included. ;)

The comparable SP3 will still cost you $1129. Still paying over 10% more.

tdicola• 12 years ago

How is it winning on price vs. the Air? The 11" Air starts at 899 vs. the Surface 3 with similar Core i5, 4GB memory, and 128GB SSD hardware that starts at 999. Add the $100+ keyboard cover to the Surface and it's an worse comparison. The 13" Air is 999 and again comes with the keyboard of course.

ghaff• 12 years ago

The surface, although not the most commercially hot commodity out there, is a good piece of kit and has some dedicated fans. It's fundamentally different from anything else on the market right now. i.e. It's a tablet that's actually good for more than mere consumption.

Right. I have no idea if the new Surface will succeed or not and, frankly, don't especially care as I'm out of the Windows ecosystem and am unlikely to re-enter it. That said, IF someone can really crack the code for making a device that works well as both a consumption and a creation device, it seems as if that would be interesting to a lot of people. Apple arguably made the tablet popular precisely by being willing to break from laptop/creation constraints but there's no reason to believe that reconvergence can't happen whether by Microsoft, Apple, or (possibly) some future Chromebook or Linux variant thereof.

greedo3• 12 years ago

I think that Apple can make iOS/iPad more "Surface" like faster and more successfully than MS can make the Surface as popular as the iPad.

gambiting• 12 years ago

"Surface is the tablet equivalent of the HTC One: it is high end hardware in a market where Apple has already taken the high end. Both Surface and One are thus stuck in the middle, appealing to no one."

He lost me at that sentence. You have to be a complete lunatic to make such a statement.

ant_sz• 12 years ago

Killing Surface may not be a good idea. Microsoft can not afford losing the tablet market, and I think this time this giant software company have to rely on itself.

On the other hand, I have to admit that the new Surface 3 makes me a little disappoint because Microsoft insist that a tablet not only should be used on work but also should even take the place of notebook.

hmmm.... It's always hard to say what things will be like in the future, but I think I will prefer a notebook for work.

zabraxias• 12 years ago

I disagree with the article though it does make me wonder about the supply chain part of the process with OEMs. The surface 3 is definitely attractive and powerful and I'd love to get one. If only MS would do one last, monumental change and build the OS on top of BSD. I use Apple for most of my daily work but would love a reason to switch or simply to see some viable competition in the space.

blahedo• 12 years ago

I love my Surface Pro 2, and I'm certainly no Microsoft fanboy---it's the first MS product I've ever purchased, and if you'd told me twenty years ago (or even two years ago) that I'd be purchasing an MS-made computer I wouldn't have believed you.

The reason I love my SP2 is that it is extremely successful at occupying the middle ground that it's trying to occupy. I need something like a laptop, for when I'm travelling and it needs to be a general-purpose computer, (with an actual keyboard, among other things). But, I wanted to have a tablet for light media consumption and taking notes in meetings and switching to an electronic workflow for grading things. I have not seen another device that does all that well.

I'm especially impressed with the way that they've treated the stylus as a first-class input device, rather than as an afterthought add-on for the troglodytes that can't be bothered to learn a new input method (I'm looking at you Apple). The stylus on the SP2 clips to the tablet (at least, when it isn't charging), it incorporates a button for clicking and an "eraser" that is a great UI concept, the software filters out your palm resting on the tablet to have really good registration of what the stylus is doing, and it feels like a pen. Most stylus input I've seen on other devices doesn't have any of that, and I haven't seen anything else that nails all of it. This is the particular thing that sealed the deal for me, and I feel like I can't be the only one.

All of which is to say that I really appreciate the direction they've taken with the Surface Pro, and I appreciate their priorities. I very much hope that they keep at it.

mreiland• 12 years ago

I own an ipad and I disdain the thing. It's useful when it's useful, but the painful input makes it something I can't use regularly. I want to, but the input is just too painful for me. I've been considering purchasing a bluetooth keyboard for it for years specifically because I want it to be more useful for me.

When the Surface first came out, I thought "MS has it right, that is what I want". Reading your comment reinforces my idea that they went in the right direction, and I may start considering a purchase.

ticktocktick• 12 years ago

The Surface costs more than the average laptop and tablet it is supposed to replace. That is my problem.

And God forbid you want or need processing power or RAM >= 8GB...

nivla5• 12 years ago

The Surface costs more than the average laptop and tablet it is supposed to replace.

Not necessarily for an i7 machine in the form factor, but yes based on the average its too much to invest into.

And God forbid you want or need processing power or RAM >= 8GB..

A few years ago I would have disagreed with you but heck what are we feeding browsers nowadays. My chrome with a handful of websites hits the 1GB mark easily. Talking about an IDE and VM on top of that, we are already at 8GB and to think years back I was comfortable with a Netbook with 1GB of ram.

rlu4• 12 years ago

People slam Microsoft culture, and while I haven't been at the company long enough to really be a good judge, one of the qualities I love about it is the tenacity that people have here. We don't just give up on things immediately. In fact, if you look at a lot of the successful products of today...they weren't initial successes.

I think we're lucky to have the resources/money to continue trying and trying and trying at something until we do well. Yes, eventually you might want to cut your losses and give up. But Microsoft doesn't give up on the first try. Or second. Or third.

And you have to admire that.

higherpurpose• 12 years ago

Surface Pro 3 is only good for one target market: designers.

For everyone else a laptop is better, and a more unified product without moving parts. Surface is also too expensive if you want a decent amount of storage. 40GB of free storage for $930 as a "laptop replacement" is unacceptable. Most people would be much better served than say a $900 Macbook Air.

So from this point of view, the author is right. Surface has been and continues to be a big failure for Microsoft, no matter how well it is designed and made. It doesn't win Microsoft anything other than a very small niche of people who like to design with styluses.

nivla5• 12 years ago

Surface Pro 3 is only good for one target market: designers.

Actually its also good for people who travel a lot and needs to get things done on the way. I am one of those people.

Surface is also too expensive if you want a decent amount of storage.

Well its has a SD slot, USB3 and with cloud storage, it wouldn't bother you as much as you think.

It doesn't win Microsoft anything other than a very small niche of people.

Actually if through those niche people they could make it though to the enterprise world, its one of the biggest wins they could ever have.

lotsofmangos• 12 years ago

The surface pro is the first tablet I have seen that looks like a proper drawing tool. I don't really care about portable media consumption, I want the equivalent of a Wacom Cintiq glued to a high-end laptop, ideally in A3.

zacinbusiness• 12 years ago

iPhone, MacBook Air, iPad Air, AppleTV. These are the devices I use every day. It used to be Blackberry, iPod Touch, HP Laptop, Xbox 360.

It started with the Xbox. I played a lot of games in college, but before starting grad school I realized that I would need to really bring it if I wanted my M.A. to be useful outside of academia, so I sold my Xbox 360, Kinect, controllers, and games (Halo 3, MW3, DiRT, and some others) for $150. I then bought an AppleTV and had a nice lunch.

After setting up the AppleTV I was really impressed with how easily it connected to, and streamed, my iTunes library and Netflix. So soon after I ditched the Blackberry for an iPhone 4. That, too, was amazing and I soon snatched up an iPad 1 and, finally, ditched the HP for the Air.

Since then I've really enjoyed the Apple "way" and I am always amazed that, regardless of what new hardware comes out by other vendors, I am never jealous of anyone else's rig or laptop. I'm never thinking "Man, I need to get that 'droid device as soon as I can." And I never look at a PC and think I'll be ditching the Air and picking going back to PC.

However, I have coveted the design and hardware of the Surface since the very first one. It's a really solid design that has only gotten better with time, and the Surface Pro 3 seems to be even better. I love how it looks, how it feels, and the utility of the device. The Surface Pro is the first device to come along since I switched from PC to Mac that makes me take notice of anything else.

Unfortunately, there are a few things that I dislike. The keyboard cover is too flimsy to be really useful, meaning that it's really just a mildly-useful accessory that would be better off as a proper keyboard. Also, I dislike the stand aspect of the Surface. If I have a keyboard attached, then I shouldn't need a stand, it should just lock in place, more like a dock than a cover (though of course it needs to be easily adjustable, but I'll leave that problem for the designers and the engineers to sort out).

Other than those two things, the Surface seems like a really solid device, and so I'm genuinely surprised that it's doing so poorly as far as sales figures go.

chaz72• 12 years ago

Not at all. Make it clear to OEM partners that this is not a competitor to their low-margin products but rather a competitor to Apple's high-margin products. MS & OEMs both need to understand that it will always be a small fraction of market share. It makes the Windows brand more valuable, though: Some of their customers want a high-end device that's made to run Windows, and where else can you get that these days?

pavlov• 12 years ago

Strangely the article makes no mention of Microsoft Mobile, i.e. the unit formerly known as Nokia Devices.

Microsoft has just completed a $7B USD acquisition of a hardware division that has 25,000 employees worldwide. They're not about to get out of hardware now!

After the Nokia purchase, Microsoft's hardware volume is on equivalent scale compared to the major Windows PC vendors. The Surface Pro is the high end of a product range that spans everything from the $90 Lumia 520 to the Xbox. In that role, the new Surface Pro is an important halo product. What's the benefit of killing the Surface today?

dvanduzer• 12 years ago

Honestly? Doesn't anyone understand how important the physical plant is to Google's advantage, for that matter?

"People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware."

http://www.folklore.org/StoryView.py?project=Macintosh&story...

lifeofanalysis• 12 years ago

I want to bring in a funny point here. Am I the only one who thinks iPad Air screen is too small (not talking about the quality of the screen, which is excellent, no doubt) for reading documents? I have tried it out in Apple Store; it seems like a toy screen to me. This is the single reason that I have not bought an iPad.

I consume passively for about half of my time and produce actively (run programs on a server via Terminal) the other half. So, if I had to read a document, I think Surface 3 is just the right size. Plus the stylus there is very good for annotations. And then I can work in the Terminal using the Keyboard accessory. Also, switch between programs via Alt-Tab, multiple side-by-side windows etc. Install iTunes to bring over my music collection.

So I am very very tempted to move from my 13" MacBook Air to Surface 3. Price is not really a consideration for me. So, what am I missing?

scj• 12 years ago

I think that it is safe to say that the Surface is a failure. But that doesn't mean it should be killed, just fixed.

I concur with the article when it notes, Apple's iPad is a clear winner in the high end for now and the immediate future (I'll bet the next 3 years).

But the high end isn't the only market. In the long term, the interesting market will probably evolve out of today's low/middle end. And ceding what was traditionally known as the "white box" market, not to Apple, but to Android, would be a huge mistake. One that could threaten Windows in time.

For the short term, Android is probably going to hold the lowest end ARM tablets. I can't imagine Microsoft being able to compete here any time soon (as price is the big issue). The best MS can do is try to make Android irrelevant. If, 5 years from now, Android is seen as "good enough" by the general population, then Google might be able to use it to make a run on the desktop. I know I would in their shoes.

That leaves the mid-range market. And I believe there is value in a Windows tablet running a low-powered x86. One that plays movies/TV shows, runs Office, has IE, and has backward compatibility with existing apps. A tablet that favours price to specs, but needs to come in a shiny casing none-the-less. This product isn't the Surface 3, but there is no reason it couldn't be the next iteration.

If the price was right, I could see my proposed tablet becoming the "safe" option for IT departments. Once the basic form is there, help third party OEMs get in on the market, and slowly revert to being a software-only company.

slantyyz5• 12 years ago

> I think that it is safe to say that the Surface is a failure. But that doesn't mean it should be killed, just fixed.

As a Surface Pro 1 owner, it looks to me that the Surface Pro 3 has fixed just about all of the things I find lacking in the Surface Pro line. It's still not enough to make me upgrade yet, but that's mainly because my Surface Pro has enough horsepower to last me some time.

> Apple's iPad is a clear winner in the high end

If you're a heavy tablet user, it is. The thing to note, however, is that tablets are getting pressure on two fronts -- the computer side (things like the Surface and touchscreen laptops) and even more so on the phone side (phablets). I only have a 4.5" screen phone, but that's already caused a sharp decrease in my desire to use a tablet. If I had something along the lines of a Galaxy Note 3, I probably wouldn't even bother with something like an iPad.

badman_ting• 12 years ago

I noticed a couple digs at Xbox here, particularly the one saying their division is "too cool" for the rest of MS. If I were that team I'd do the same thing -- wall off all the internal BS politics and other crap that causes so many good ideas to die. I suppose that leaves an opportunity for that division to manifest its own suboptimal behavior, but at least there's a chance at relative sanity. Maybe.

gtirloni• 12 years ago

Having clearly failed as a mass market device

Is that MS' goal? Or the pundits' perceived goal?

slantyyz5• 12 years ago

As a halo device for Windows 8, I think the Surface has been pretty successful.

Before the Surface, most of the Windows 8 devices were pretty dismal.

After the Surface, you see a lot of interesting products, especially from Dell (surprisingly) and Lenovo.

keepkalm• 12 years ago

Why hardware? Because delivery of Microsoft mobile services across Apple & Google devices puts them at a strategic disadvantage in the marketplace. Google isn't going to send users to Bing or Office when people get an Android phone. If the Nokia camera really was what people wanted Windows Mobile probably would have been a HUGE hit and Bing would probably sneak up a bit in share of the search market.

That is the best reason why, it raises the floor for other core services.

It is a quality device, but the marketing just seems wrong. Too expensive, different models of the Surface are radically different products, doesn't have the developers that iOS or Android has, and just didn't take off for some reason.

I don't see a reason to not make the Surface, people I know who have them, love them, and that is something that could be built on. That used to be the space that Apple occupied in the 90s, small user base with intense adoration and love and eventually came to be a dominant player in personal computing.

r00fus• 12 years ago

A response to the article's high-road argument: "In other words, Surface is the tablet equivalent of the HTC One: it is high end hardware in a market where Apple has already taken the high end."

It's not just that Apple has taken the high road, thanks to Tim Cook's supply chain magic woven over the past decade, Apple has taken the high road, and similarly almost always provides consistently higher end products at lower price points than the competition can offer, with impressive margins.

In other words, you must not only beat Apple's hardware quality (HTC One and Chromebook Pixel got this right, and maybe the Surface3), but you must offer it a lower price than Apple, and do so sustainably for the long haul (so subsidizing would require substantial force-of-will even for large companies). And then fight against Apple's continued "coolness factor" which some argue is dimming, but is still a marketing force to contend with.

leafartist• 12 years ago

Everything in this world has a place, so does the surface. Not everyone can afford the biggest mansion on the hill. For the few that can. I'm happy for you.

It's Time to Kill Surface

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