Paul Graham revisits "Microsoft is Dead"

http://www.thestandard.com/news/2009/04/09/paul-graham-revisits-microsoft-dead-points-new-factors-shaping-software-industry

by ilamont • 17 years ago

55 98 17 years ago

thestandard.com

Retric2• 17 years ago

IMO, Sharepoint is Microsoft's next big thing. They are becoming indispensable to midsized and large companies and creating a foundation that helps them keep selling copy's of Windows, and Office while setting up yet another revenue stream. Granted selling to other companies seems to be what large organizations do when they die, but it's still a huge source of revenue with little real competition.

So, if you are building a web app you can probably ignore Microsoft, but if you are building an OS, or Office product there is still a huge shark swimming in those waters.

Tangurena2• 17 years ago

Some people like to complain about how companies end up depending on home-brewed Access and Excel applications. The IT guys didn't have the time/resources to do "a proper job" so the business workers just learned stuff on their own and wrote their own apps.

My suspicion is that Sharepoint and Infopath will be the next generation of home-brewed company apps. Companies already have them, so they don't need to be buying X, Y or Z to start writing apps to keep their company going.

qeorge3• 17 years ago

Could you explain this:

"Granted selling [products] to other companies seems to be what large organizations do when they die"

I couldn't disagree more. Could you please elaborate?

Retric2• 17 years ago

I think focusing on selling to other companies is a difficult trap to get out of. After the first sale companies can be milked for an extended period for support contracts / upgrades. Innovation is not really needed and growth / profit are an easy to understand process. You can even make money by bribing middle managers (see: drug companies for an example of this).

However, individuals require far more bang for the buck. So the margins tend to be far smaller and you need to sell to large numbers of people constantly to keep up.

At the same time selling to companies tends to focus on boring products so most of your innovative people tend to leave. It's not exactly a binary choice, but companies like AT&T often go from selling to individuals, to making money from companies, to making money from the government. In the end the quality of your competition tends to drop the closer you are to working for the government which is why I think it's a death spiral. Overtime the company becomes unable to deal with change and the next round of innovative companies tend to disrupt them.

PS: Which is not to say old companies like GM can't sell products to customers it's just they stop being able to make much money doing so unless they can leverage a monopoly.

andreyf• 17 years ago

Aren't services like Sharepoint fundamentally inferior to "cloud computing" (for lack of a less buzzy phrase)? I've heard this for almost a decade, but isn't it about time people see local e-mail hosting like running your own generators instead of "trusting" an electric company for your electricity?

briansmith• 17 years ago

That's why Microsoft has two different levels of managed Sharepoint hosting: Office Live (very small businesses), and Microsoft Sharepoint Online (small or large businesses). Similarly, they have Microsoft Exchange Online, which is managed Exchange hosting. They are building caching infrastructure into Windows 7 so they can offer even Active Directory and file sharing as remote, managed services.

As far as I can tell, all of their server-side software is or will be offered in a Microsoft-hosted-and-managed configuration. And, it won't be trivial to switch back and forth, but it will at least be possible to do so.

Additionally, Microsoft seems to be working with Amazon Web Services since AWS supports Windows Server. If you don't want Microsoft to host your applications then you can do it yourself on AWS or on your own servers.

nick007• 17 years ago

Technology startups don't have to worry about what Microsoft is doing? Microsoft is losing in a few fields but is still the world's largest and most lucrative software company. Just because it's no longer the youngest, hippest, and fastest growing company doesn't mean that it is dying.

swombat• 17 years ago

Put it this way: Fifteen years ago, if you were trying to convince someone to invest in you, the question on their lips might have been "What if Microsoft move into your market?"

Now the question is "What if Google move into your market?"

Far from being a threat, Microsoft is now an opportunity target... "We're going to steal this market from Microsoft" is a plausible claim. And so, they are no longer a big worry.

Tangurena2• 17 years ago

15 years ago, Stac Electronics was on everyone's mind. Where Microsoft might say they wanted to buy your company, or license your technology, then go on to steal it anyway.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stac_Electronics

allenbrunson• 17 years ago

This is possibly pg's most misunderstood essay ever, largely due to reactions like this one. He didn't say Microsoft is "dying," just that they're not a threat anymore.

And ultimately, it's for their own good! Microsoft's rapaciousness was hurting them, indirectly. Innovation in the Windows space dried up. Who wants to make the next big successful thing on Windows, when Microsoft will surely swoop in and eat your lunch for you?

blogimus• 17 years ago

How I understand it is that Paul is saying Microsoft is irrelevant to those trying to build at the forefronts. That it is not going to spot you, the startup, and eat your lunch, because its core business, its competencies are not where you are "feeding" (for want of a better metaphor).

Herring• 17 years ago

Well I can see how choosing a flamebait title helps get that message across.

TweedHeads3• 17 years ago

In summary, a retarded article bragging about billions and market share without any substance at all to dispute PG's assertion.

M$ is dead, nobody fears them anymore, their products are no longer required, for every M$ product there are many competing products that work as well or better.

Like saying IE is the best browser because it has 60% of market share without saying it had 90% a year before.

Nobody uses it anymore and nobody cares.

That's the real issue.

ashot• 17 years ago

Please don't use "M$"

chancho3• 17 years ago

Is Windoze still ok? Internet Exploder?

TweedHeads3• 17 years ago

From Wikipedia:

M$ (Microsoft): used to emphasize the allegation that Microsoft has business practices that focus on making money rather than producing good products or looking after the end user's needs and interests. Microsoft was convicted under United States anti-trust law of taking unfair advantage of its monopoly position. Also criticized for taking advantage of loyal customers and upgrading products annually for an expensive price, thus "shafting" the people who bought last year's products.

I don't see anything wrong with using M$ to imply all of the above in one simple and worldwide recognizable satiric misspelling.

See also, satire

yan• 17 years ago

"their products are no longer required" is a bold statement to say about a company pulling billions in profits. Ditto for "Nobody uses it anymore and nobody cares"

randallsquared• 17 years ago

> "their products are no longer required" is a bold statement to say about a company pulling billions in profits.

No, it isn't. Toyota's products are not required, since they have many competitors for each. That doesn't mean that they can't make money, only that they're not a(n effective) monopoly.

TweedHeads3• 17 years ago

I didn't see PG 'revisiting' his post.

Did he write a follow-up I missed?

thalur• 17 years ago

I think it's referring to an email quote in the article.

mattmaroon6• 17 years ago

iPhone apps are a media sensation for sure, but the real money is more in social network apps. The top Facebook app makes every month what the top iPhone app has made in total.

jasongullickson8• 17 years ago

Do you have evidence to back up this statement?

mattmaroon6• 17 years ago

Sure. It's actually fairly public. Everyone celebrated iShoot making $700k. It's well-known that Mob Wars and a few other apps make more than that monthly. And as an app developer, I can attest to the sort of eCPMs that requires among Facebook RPGs.

To put it in perspective, I'll probably bring in more rev than iShoot this year, and I'm nowhere near Mob Wars in traffic numbers. There have to be hundreds of guys out there bigger than me. And unlike iShoot, I'll keep doing it indefinitely, not just until I fall off of the top 25 (which I never even had to hit).

When it comes to third party apps, Facebook is really the leader right now. In fact, I'd argue that in the tech world, they're setting the terms more than Apple at the moment, just in a different sphere.

neilo• 17 years ago

Maybe "de-clawed"? They're not quite DEAD yet. I think I'll go for a walk...

yef2• 17 years ago

People misunderstood PG's essay because he misstated his thesis. "Dead", put simply, was the wrong word to use.

Microsoft is not "dead" any more than Apple was dead in the mid to late nineties (and boy, was that a popular statement at the time).

Microsoft still has cash, people, and a position in the industry that, with the right leadership, can be turned around to be competitive with Google, Amazon and Apple.

Please back up all prognostications with evidence, or submit yourself to wrongtomorrow.com :)

r70002• 17 years ago

No it was not the wrong wording at all. "X is dead" is a very well-established rhetorical phrase. The only controversy that resulted was due to the enormously over-literal nature of argument on the net.

The "Microsoft" in the title means the "Microsoft as bogeyman of the tech industry". This is implied. That Microsoft "still has cash, people, and ... position" is neither here nor there.

yef2• 17 years ago

To me, "dead" means something like "checkmated". "X is dead" means that X is in a situation that it can't get out of. Can you please point me to your definition?

qeorge3• 17 years ago

I've never agreed with this PG essay. Granted its a couple of years old, but I think its totally off-base.

Specifically:

"Gmail also showed how much you could do with web-based software, if you took advantage of what later came to be called "Ajax." And that was the second cause of Microsoft's death: everyone can see the desktop is over. It now seems inevitable that applications will live on the web - not just email, but everything, right up to Photoshop. Even Microsoft sees that now."

I couldn't possibly disagree with this more. The idea of being forced to use all software through a browser sounds bloody awful to me. Photoshop through a browser? DO NOT WANT.

What we're more likely to see is cloud-based apps, which deliver the portability and connectivity we've come to expect from web apps. I can absolutely see myself using a cloud based version of Photoshop, but it would still be "desktop" software. Not surprisingly MS is heavily invested in the virtualization and server markets.

Surprisingly, I think PG forgot this basic point: products succeed because people want them, not because of their underlying technology. Gmail became popular not because it employed AJAX or was based online, but because it solved a hair-on-fire problem: tiny inbox sizes.

"The third cause of Microsoft's death was broadband Internet. Anyone who cares can have fast Internet access now. And the bigger the pipe to the server, the less you need the desktop."

This statement I also find ridiculous. If anything, increased broadband availability has made computers even more of a must-have product. And I've seen absolutely nothing to back up a claim that of these new computers less of them are running Windows.

"The last nail in the coffin came, of all places, from Apple. Thanks to OS X, Apple has come back from the dead in a way that is extremely rare in technology. [2] Their victory is so complete that I'm now surprised when I come across a computer running Windows."

Dude, come on. Yes, Apple made an amazing comeback. No, they haven't had anything close to a "complete victory."

Now, I say this as someone who makes custom web apps for small businesses, and someone whose father had an app completely ripped off and suffocated by MS circa 2000. A big part of me wants this to be true, but I know it isn't.

In conclusion:

The revolution in web apps was making them behave more like desktop apps. So why is it surprising to see desktop apps enjoy a renaissance by acting more like web apps?

axod6• 17 years ago

>> "Photoshop through a browser? DO NOT WANT."

What you seem to fail to see is that you're an outlier.

Most people want photoshop through a browser. Most people already do most of their stuff through a browser. It's funny to even debate, because it's happening/happened for large amounts of people out there already. Ask your parents what they do on the computer, and it's likely to be 90%+ web, with perhaps a couple of desktop apps. If that.

Ironically, it's the techie usually early adopters that are lagging here, preferring to stick with desktop software. The people leading the webapp charge are people who don't want the fuss of downloading desktop software, with potential spyware etc, and just go to google and find a webapp instead.

The same phenomenon exists when some people discuss advertising. "No one clicks on ads anymore" - it's easy to say, if you install adblock, or just don't click on ads, but this is a total minority. The majority do click on ads. Just like the majority want, and use webapps over desktop apps.

>> "Gmail became popular not because it employed AJAX or was based online, but because it solved a hair-on-fire problem: tiny inbox sizes."

I think actually the reason it succeeded was because it had ridiculously fast searching, and unlike a desktop app, you don't have to worry about your storage. I don't think the majority of people really cared about inbox size. The fact you could easily search for things in a simple and blazingly fast webapp was key. For most people, it is better than a desktop app.

>> "This statement I also find ridiculous. If anything, increased broadband availability has made computers even more of a must-have product."

The fact that broadband access has increased etc means there's less need to have a thick client. Where previously you needed to download a video, click on it, watch it, we all now just watch videos streamed to us by a webapp. When we all have 1Gbps connections, why would we need a full powerful computer each? Why would it not be in most persons better interest to just have a very thin power conserving client that connects up to the big servers doing the grunt work.

The fact is, it's happening, and will continue to happen. You can't stop it. It's inevitable. You might prefer to stick with your computer and desktop apps, but you'll be a small minority, like the people who still buy records on vinyl.

>> "The revolution in web apps was making them behave more like desktop apps."

I disagree with that. The revolution in webapps is making them work BETTER than desktop apps. Gmail can search my mail much faster than my computer can. Mibbit can do things impossible with desktop IRC clients. etc etc

The reason Microsoft are 'dead' is that they don't get it. They're dead in a similar sense to the music industry IMHO - the market changed around them and they completely failed to adapt.

brk2• 17 years ago

The Photoshop example is a little bit unique...

I too do not want Photoshop in a browser. I shoot Canon 5D and 5DMkII. My RAW images are HUGE. I'd either have to upload them to the server to "edit", or download a fairly hefty app to run locally. Photoshop (true photoshop) is processor and bandwidth intensive when used as intended. It won't live in the cloud for a very long time.

Now, what my parents and similar folks want is a way to reduce red-eye, crop and convert photos and apply some simple effects. Sure, THAT can be a web-app. But, the cloud is not killing photoshop.

I also personally do a lot of business travel. Until planes have free, good wifi, then "cloud apps" suck for me. I want to be able to read emails and queue responses while in-flight. I want to be able to edit and organize docs and presentations. I want to be able to look up an address or phone number from my inbox QUICKLY, without having to establish a wifi connection, accept some TOS for the free access, go to gmail, find the message, etc. Just pop open my MBP, give it 8 seconds to "wakeup", go to mail.app and pull the message I want.

old-gregg3• 17 years ago

Most people already do most of their stuff through a browser

We merely settled on a standardized approach to networked GUIs. Instead of proliferation of 3rd party networking apps like usenet/email clients, ftp clients, various VB/Oracle business forms apps, people simply use HTTP-based UI stack. Frankly, not that big of a deal. People _feel_ like that's a big deal because this opened networking to the masses, presented a lot of business opportunities, but fundamentally, this hasn't changed anything.

The type of applications people are running hasn't changed. If your data needs to be shared with others, you need an application with a network access and it means a web site. If not - why does it need to be in a browser?

Yes, people waste time online a lot, that only means they aren't really using their computers. It's like watching TV: most of them have CPUs and RAM and stuff,yet you aren't seeing "TV evangelists" screaming that new era of computing has arrived: with 50" screens and remotes instead of keyboards. That, however, is happening with the iPhone: look how excited everybody is about "desktop apps" you can run on it.

Paul is right: new website founders have no reason to fear Microsoft because they aren't competing with them. But that's not new: it is exactly like starting a landscaping or dog walking business in the 90s: Microsoft couldn't care less.

If anything, they have won. They have such a strong grip on Windows platform that it takes big balls to start a company in that space. My deepest respect to Xobni for taking on the challenge.

neilc2• 17 years ago

What you seem to fail to see is that you're an outlier.

When PG says stuff like "I'm now surprised when I come across a computer running Windows", I think he's more of an outlier than the parent poster.

Gmail can search my mail much faster than my computer can.

There's no technological reason for this to be true. Gmail takes a second or two to answer search queries over my mail; that is plenty of time for a typical desktop machine to process full-text search queries over a few GB of indexed and largely static data.

The reason Microsoft are 'dead' is that they don't get it.

I think most of my objection to the original PG article is the shameless hyperbole it engages in. Microsoft isn't "dead" by any stretch of the imagination -- they are poorly positioned for cloud computing, but the game is certainly not over yet. Claiming that Microsoft is "no longer a factor one has to consider when doing something in technology" is simply wrong -- even if you narrow your focus to consumer-facing web apps, Microsoft still provides the dominant client platform (IE), and a very popular backend infrastructure (SQL + ASP.NET + CLR + ...).

ratsbane• 17 years ago

It's a mistake to assume that "apps in the browser" and "apps in the cloud" are the same thing. HTML in the future will allow much more in-browser data storage. The cloud does offer a big advantage in access to data but the other big advantage of browser apps is that you can run the same code whether it's Mac, PC, Android phone, etc.

The advantages of browser apps - standard and ubiquitous deployment target, potential use of cloud - are all improving over time.

The disadvantages of browser apps are all in factors like bandwidth and connectivity - factors which are steadily giving way to the advance of technology.

I'm betting on the future of browser-based apps. PG was right.

http://dev.w3.org/html5/spec/Overview.html

qeorge3• 17 years ago

The other responderer's covered most everything I would have said in response to this, but this cracked me up:

>> you'll be a small minority, like the people who still buy records on vinyl.

You got me there, I totally do buy my records on vinyl.

Cheers!

mattmaroon6• 17 years ago

Most people do not want Photoshop in a browser. Most people do not want Photoshop at all. They just want something simple to crop, resize, remove red-eye, fix color and brightness levels, etc. They want Picassa in a browser maybe but not Photoshop.

Anybody who does want Photoshop does not want it in a browser.

The reason Microsoft is in much less of a leadership position is that there are a lot more people who want Picassa than Photoshop. That doesn't mean desktop software is dead (the people who want Photoshop pay handily for it) but it does mean they're no longer as important as they were.

statictype• 17 years ago

>The idea of being forced to use all software through a browser sounds bloody awful to me

To me too. I never understood, ten years ago, why on earth most people would prefer a web-based email client to a native desktop app but they did. And today that percentage is just increasing. Most people just don't have the same concerns you and I do.

>>Their victory is so complete that I'm now surprised when I come across a computer running Windows.

Yeah, this one didn't make sense. If you're surprised when you come across a computer running the desktop OS used by more than 75% ([citation needed]) of the populace, then you clearly move in very narrow circles.

Tamerlin3• 17 years ago

"To me too. I never understood, ten years ago, why on earth most people would prefer a web-based email client to a native desktop app but they did. And today that percentage is just increasing. Most people just don't have the same concerns you and I do."

For me it had more to do with the fact that GMail's minimalist UI ended up being more responsive than the likes of Outlook.

"Yeah, this one didn't make sense. If you're surprised when you come across a computer running the desktop OS used by more than 75% ([citation needed]) of the populace, then you clearly move in very narrow circles."

I'm fairly certain that it's still more than 75%. It's also very likely that Dell's monthly sales still exceed Apple's annual sales of computers. Apple's sales have been higher than usual, but still hasn't managed to make much of a dent in the Windows market -- and don't forget that mac users are buying Windows licences so that they can run Windows-only software also... so even though those are probably the minority of mac buyers, it does suggest that Apple's non-victory is even less complete than PG is implying. :)

MaysonL• 17 years ago

I would guess that most of the machines that pg runs across are machines used by software producers rather than software consumers (and more specifically web software producers in young companies), and that few of these run Windows is not at all surprising

ken• 17 years ago

"Photoshop through a browser? DO NOT WANT."

That sounds like "3d games in Windows?" in 1995, or any other "$perf_sucking_app in $new_environment".

The "browser" that's going to run Photoshop 2015 won't be Netscape 3. It'll have a JIT'd JS engine (so it'll be really fast), it'll have local storage (so you don't need to upload anything), it'll have efficient graphics libraries (so it can use your video card), it'll have native-feeling controls, and so on.

It's a "browser" only in that it's a continuous upgrade from our beloved Netscape, but it won't look much like Netscape at all. In terms of user experience, it'll be basically like the Photoshop you know and love, except without the adventure that is the Adobe installer.

whacked_new• 17 years ago

All that has been done here, is replacing the OS with the browser. That is actually what is happening.

Now I am intrigued: an OS that is its own browser. Not eyeOS and the like: I mean the window manager is the browser. You browse a VFS which is mounted, locally or remotely; the browser doesn't see a difference. XUL is the default UI language. The browser handles threading, even. You have no desktop but you have a homepage. Exit the browser, power down.

Am I talking about something that exists? Stripped-down single-app systems like kiosks don't count... or should they count?

c00p3r• 17 years ago

iPhone was changed everything.

Facebook and Twitter shows what the people really want.

No body cares about OS or PC anymore. Stay connected - it's a trend.

cubicle672• 17 years ago

PG, if you're around, are you able to post your entire response? This article reads like there's a lot more you said that wasn't printed.

pg4• 17 years ago

from Paul Graham

to Ian Lamont

date Wed, Apr 8, 2009 at 9:22 AM

subject Re: 2nd anniversary of "Microsoft is Dead" essay - new factors to consider?

A lot of people misunderstood that essay, and asked how I could claim a company making so much money was dead. Obviously I didn't mean Microsoft was bankrupt. What I meant was that they were no longer a factor one had to consider when doing something in technology.

That's still true today. The big stories in the 2 years since have been AWS and iPhone apps. Microsoft's mindshare has continued to slowly erode.

Thanks to AWS, someone starting a startup today thinks more about Amazon than Microsoft. An online retailer! It would have seemed almost impossible to people in 1999 that anyone would be saying that in 2009.

--pg

cubicle672• 17 years ago

Thanks

access_denied• 17 years ago

The linked to article is weak. Summary: 1. PG wrote that article 2. I called him, and he reinforced his sentiment by giving 2 more incidents for support. iPhone Apps and the fact many web startups use Amazon's services for hostinge ect.

_bn• 17 years ago

no, no, no. Microsoft is far from dead. PG is simply wrong.

Just look at the work that Live Labs is producing. No "Web 2.0" company can compete with the brilliance behind photosynth. They are kidding themselves if they think they can.

I'll tell you why Microsoft won't survive. It's because Microsoft isn't a leader in innovation. Steve Ballmer doesn't have any balls. He's simply satisfied with being #2 and playing it safe while letting Steve Jobs create new markets and dominating them (with style).

Again, Microsoft isn't dead. If anything, this whole "Web 2.0" and Ycombinator incubation thing is dead. If the big boys think that there is any serious competition coming out of these programs then they have another thing coming. The recession has reduced a lot of this noise, and the real animals have been let out of their cage.

olefoo• 17 years ago

Microsoft Research is not Microsoft; it's like the Honors College at a large state university a small enclave of excellence set against a larger backdrop of mediocrity.

The larger culture at Microsoft is still operating under the assumptions of the 1990's when they were large and in charge. They have been coasting on the monopoly for some time. But, they are not the hundred year computing culture; by their very nature they can't be.

sscheper• 17 years ago

In that article, it's hilarious because the microsoft biz dev guy misunderstands what he seeks to establish.

henning• 17 years ago

How are iPhone apps a big story when the market is dominated by fart noise programs and games?

(Since when do Web 2.0 people give a crap about mobile gaming?)

jasongullickson8• 17 years ago

Most of the criticism of this essay could be eliminated by replacing "dead" with "irrelevant".

What has Microsoft done in the last five years that has been copied by a competitor (the sincerest form of flattery and all)

actf3• 17 years ago

Wow I honestly can't believe that pg is so short sighted.

Let's compare work that's being directly copied by competitors:

Microsoft: C#, actually for that matter the entire .NET Framework, Singularity, Gazelle, Visual Studio, Powershell, Office, WPF, Silverlight, Photosynth, the list goes on and on

Apple: iPhone

Microsoft is by no means "dead" or "irrelevant". Generally I like reading Paul Graham's essays, but I think this one is a bunch of gibberish.

jasongullickson8• 17 years ago

Fascinating.

What would be illuminating is if you would point to the competitor and the copied product instead of just listing Microsoft products.

also, what does the line "Apple:iPhone" have to do with this?

(admittedly, Singularity is very, very cool)

eugenejen• 17 years ago

IMHO if anyone has ever read Freidrich Nietzsche's "Gott ist tot" will understand what PG meant by "Microsoft is Dead".

shimi• 17 years ago

If you build a web app you must test it on IE, WM is the third biggest mobile OS for smartphones, and that's before desktops.

Sorry PG I can't agree with you on this account.

Paul Graham revisits "Microsoft is Dead"

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