New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/08/world/asia/north-korea-warns-of-pre-emptive-nuclear-attack.html

by cpeterso • 13 years ago

70 114 13 years ago

tawgx• 13 years ago

The only comfort in their maniacal prison system state is that they make funny propaganda videos (the one with "we are the world" should totally get an SNL cover). Other than that it's a complete human tragedy. Let's hope for a Korean spring soon..

JoeAltmaier4• 13 years ago

Wow. More juvenile posturing, or the beginning of the end for North Korea? Depends on whether anyone takes them seriously. And with a growing nuclear capability, they can't be taken not-seriously. This is suicide for them.

tatsuke95• 13 years ago

The unfortunate reality is that a "threat" of war, or even a war itself, is what it might take for real changes to take place in the country.

That sucks for the people in the short run, but might change the game for their future.

arethuza6• 13 years ago

Threatening a nuclear strike is pretty serious stuff - I hope the North Koreans are sensible enough not to fuel up any rockets in the near future...

I also wonder if there is a back channel somewhere where they tell the Chinese, who would then presumably tell the US, that they really are just posturing and there is no real threat.

ihuman• 13 years ago

I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.

ordinary• 13 years ago

If North Korea ever decides to uses their nuclear weapons, South Korea will be just as badly off. Actual use of nuclear weapons is a lose-lose scenario for all parties involved (and, indeed, all parties not involved). Threatening use of nuclear weapons is another matter altogether.

It is probably also worth noting that every single western nuclear power reserves the right to first use of nuclear weapons. In fact, the only countries who have ever adopted a no first use policy are the USSR/Russia (for 2 decades, but not any more), India (this is apparently more ambiguous now) and China (who continue to hold to it).

Wikipedia briefly mentions a North Korean pledge to the same effect, but I think this latest news shows that we should probably not take that too seriously.

benjoffe• 13 years ago

A rational North Korean state would not engage in nuclear war in just about any scenario as it would mean almost certain destruction for itself in response. To help persuade their enemies not to invade they try to appear as irrational as possible.

There's an interesting segment in this psychology lecture about irrationality that seems related:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5IrSEIPdwk#t=44m36s

    There is some advantage to being irrational, to having a temper.
    Because if you have a temper and you're known to be irrational, people
    are forced, by dint of your irrationality, to treat you better. Who am
    I going to take from? The person who's extremely reasonable or the
    person who has a hair-trigger temper? Well, I'm going to pick on a
    reasonable person because the unreasonable person might do unreasonable
    things. And this is faintly paradoxical, but often to be irrational, or
    at least to have a reputation for mild irrationality, gives you an
    edge.

Someone2• 13 years ago

Nothing to gain? For North Korea threatening with war is a time-proven way to get aid, both economic and food.

sageikosa• 13 years ago

Might have as much to do with internal politics. Keeping the populace on edge, loyalty tests to the new regime: no one would dare oppose the Leader when we are on the brink of war.

Dictator theatre is as much for the population being dominated as it is for the outside world.

polymatter• 13 years ago

The more horrifying idea is that some higher ups in NK actually believe in the standard propaganda.

Shivetya• 13 years ago

Unfortunately I think the opposite is true and history is on their side. When haven't we or the rest of the world not caved? I remember back when Clinton was in office and Jimmy Carter did an end run on him and gave the North Koreans what they wanted.

Their economy is in the dumps, their people are starving, and they have gulags or worse throughout their country, so its not like the value other human life. Then back this attitude up with a large military which has access to conventional and other weapons, being next door to a rich and vibrant nation. Its not a good situation.

Until China decides North Korea is a danger to China and makes North Korea very aware they will take action to neutralize them North Korea will act with impunity.

The real threat to the US is that we cannot be one hundred percent sure what China will do if North Korea acts and we rush in to help South Korea.

1123581321• 13 years ago

One theory is that KJU is proving his mettle to honor his grandfather and father, and to build support against and avoid a coup or assassination by a family member or military.

iterationx3• 13 years ago

Joel Skousen has an interesting analysis. North Korea attacks South Korea, the US defends South with tactical nukes. Then there is a nuclear strike on the US from Russia and China in retaliation, which might explain why the US gov is building super bunkers in the Ozarks .

criley• 13 years ago

I find it shocking to think that China and Russia will begin WWIII over North Korea (or will move their military in unison. You don't exactly see Chinese/Russian war games going on. They're both positioning for regional control against one another, not as best friends).

If China and Russia launch against the US, we know it in seconds and launch against both them. Which means that within an hour, China Russia and the US are basically no longer major international players.

They know it's suicide. They know we can respond and do as much or more damage. They won't do it, neither will we.

adventured12• 13 years ago

That's about the most silly analysis I've ever seen.

There isn't a chance in hell Russia and China end their entire existence just to defend a war against North Korea that the North also happened to start.

How do I know that? Tons of historical evidence says it would never happen. Vietnam, Cuba, Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, the original Korean War. There have been countless proxy skirmishes over the decades. None of the majors are even remotely interested in committing suicide for a proxy.

We invaded Korea with hundreds of thousands of troops, and fought a real war with massive casualties. We even fought a war with China at that time. Nobody launched any nukes at the US. Nobody is going to launch nukes at the US in the parent scenario either.

This isn't a video game. You launch nukes, everyone dies, and your civilization and culture is erased for all time. Russia would see a thousand nukes rain down on it, obliterating every relevant city. Ditto China. North Korea is not even remotely worth it, and they know it.

SeanLuke2• 13 years ago

> Joel Skousen has an interesting analysis.

A simple visit to his website, and wikipedia page, convinces me that Joel Skousen is about as non-authoritative a source as one can possibly get on this subject.

> Then there is a nuclear strike on the US from Russia and China in retaliation

This is a huge jump in logic without any explanation.

zubentok2• 13 years ago

And nobody cares because there is no oil or other goods to harvest in North Korea.

rplnt• 13 years ago

If someone cared, NK would be right.

pyre2• 13 years ago

If they had those resources, they would just have stronger ties with China. They have long had the ability to rain destruction down on Seoul, South Korea (a heavily populated city with strong ties in the West, and increasingly ties with China, AFAIK) in the event of aggression against them. None of the Middle East countries have such a situation (that I know of).

dutchbrit2• 13 years ago

I've been wondering all day how this will end, and especially if anything will happen on/before the 11th of March when North Korea will apparently cancel cease-fire if the South don't stop doing drills.

netrus• 13 years ago

It's just another layer of threat. Nothing substantial will happen in NK, they know the can only lose. My best guess is that it's all propaganda aimed at the people in NK to secure the future of the elite.

dutchbrit2• 13 years ago

Well, they do have a huge army( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Peoples_Army ), things could get quite messy. They might not do anything, except threaten others. But sometimes others react to threats...

raverbashing4• 13 years ago

I think the relevant players (I mean, not the UN and their 'strong-worded letters') have decided it's time to call the bluff

Doing a Nuclear test is one thing, mounting it on a rocket and sending it far away is another.

I think they decided to stop this before it gets ugly.

swatkat• 13 years ago

Off-topic: http://xkcd.com/859/ :)

raverbashing4• 13 years ago

Thank FSM I don't program in lisp :)

Someone2• 13 years ago

Yes, it is a different thing, but they don't have to send it that far away. Seoul is just 30 miles from the border.

The problem is more one of having a small enough nuclear device and of keeping it intact during launch than of range.

raverbashing4• 13 years ago

Yes, they can send it by plane, maybe even a suicide mission

Much easier than packing it for deployment in a rocket

30 miles is approximately 5 to 15 minutes of early warning depending on plane speed (considering time after crossing the border, but I'm sure Seoul has monitoring capabilities that go beyond)

kzrdude• 13 years ago

Don't ignore the real artillery that NK can actually use to destroy the lives of many, many koreans. If it all was about one weapon that didn't really fly, the situation would be a lot more fun.

arbuge• 13 years ago

Your monthly dose of brinkmanship from the DPRK.

lifeisstillgood• 13 years ago

I used to live next door to a rather cool and beautiful Japanese woman, and the only time I ever saw her rattled was when N Korea first tested in 2006. She was genuinely scared her country would be attacked the next day.

North Korea should scare everyone. NK's only ally, China, has clearly stood alongside everyone else in the fricking world and proposed sanctions. That is like USA cutting off Isreal's aid - its huge.

(Although they may have given them the damn bombs in the first place)

No one is going to lob nuclear bombs back, but right now, any freighter leaving Pyongyang is going to be searched very very throughly. And I would move out of Seoul for a few days.

duiker101• 13 years ago

Will someone excuse my excessive ignorance and be so kind to explain me why the DPRK is so pissed with the US? Thanks

CaptainZapp• 13 years ago

This

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_war

should give you some background.

sidcool2• 13 years ago

It's mainly because of their support for South Korea during the Korean war of 50s. NK hates SK and the US loves SK. The friend of an enemy is an enemy. There are many reasons, but this forms the base.

pm90• 13 years ago

The main reason is that the US essentially fought the Korean War for South Korea against the North, and still maintains many active military bases and thousands of troops in South Korea, especially one right in the middle of Seoul. Any attempt to invade the South would mean war with the US, thus one of the longstanding demands of the DPRK has been that the US remove all its troops from the country.

Also, the US helps the South Korea military (and previously, its economy). I believe there is a clause in the constitution where in the case of a full scale war, a US general will assume command of all the military forces of the South

xhrpost• 13 years ago

Interesting. Here's a quick copy I found on Wikipedia: "A still functioning UN Command is technically the top of the chain of command of all forces in South Korea, including the US forces and the entire South Korean military – if a sudden escalation of war between North and South Korea were to occur the United States would assume control of the South Korean armed forces in all military and paramilitary moves. However, in September 2006, the Presidents of the United States and the Republic of Korea agreed that South Korea should assume the lead for its own defense. In early 2007, the U.S. Secretary of Defense and ROK Minister of National Defense determined that South Korea will assume wartime operational control of its forces on December 1, 2015. U.S. Forces Korea will transform into a new joint-warfighting command, provisionally described as Korea Command (KORCOM)."

mseebach4• 13 years ago

It's worth adding that while the conflict is complicated and the lead up was long, the North was basically the aggressor in the war and that the NK army was backed 5:1 by Soviet troops.

hackerboos• 13 years ago

The Koreas are effectively a proxy war between the US and China.

adventured12• 13 years ago

Absolutely. China could dismantle North Korea in a heartbeat, by pulling all support at a minimum or telling the military junta it's over and if they want to survive at all they have to play ball. Kim would be served up on a platter the next day. North Korea is nothing but a way for China to poke the US constantly.

CamperBob22• 13 years ago

True in 1952 but hardly true now. More recently China has indulged the Kims because they don't want tens of millions of refugees flooding over the border.

Kim Jong-Un may be about to find that his sponsor's patience is neither unconditional nor unlimited. The Chinese leaders are not stupid. They know they have a problem.

The best endgame for Kim is an offer of exile in China, at this point. That may be what he is fishing for here.

irmbrady• 13 years ago

The US military had a big involvement in the Korean War (88% of the South Korean force [1]), and to this day are posted at the demilitarised zone in the Korean Peninsula.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War [1]

Here is an interesting read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea

damian2000• 13 years ago

Interesting article - the division is similar to how Germany was divided into east and west.

jbattle• 13 years ago

I wonder how much of the 'hate' being expressed is really just a tool to maintain the iron grip of the NK leadership on it's own people. Best way to unify a people is give them someone to hate.

mseebach4• 13 years ago

It ostensibly because of the US' role in the Korean War. In reality, it's solely for propaganda reasons.

LatvjuAvs• 13 years ago

I like these sanctions, the one aimed at Iraq starting from 1990's. Really helped for everyone living there. Who would not love a dying child from hunger on his arms, it is like a Easter present.

freehunter• 13 years ago

There's a pretty easy way for the government to avoid situations like that. If your people are at the mercy of foreign governments in order to survive, it really is in your best interest to not continuously piss them off.

vidarh• 13 years ago

That is working on the assumption that the government in question gives a shit about their population.

The problem here is that the sanctions hits a population that is already suffering under the actions of their own government, and has much less of an effect on the regime it is meant to punish.

chiph• 13 years ago

The DPRK has been taught over the years that if they rattle their sabers and then back down, they get foreign aid. As far as they're concerned, it's a winning strategy.

Is it a sane strategy? Decidedly not -- one day the foreign aid won't come, or it won't be enough, and their only option is to escalate. When they become a credible & real threat (which they are very quickly becoming), other nations will have no choice but to act out of self-preservation.

lclarkmichalek• 13 years ago

If you look at what these sanctions are aiming to do, they are very specifically targeted at the senior leadership of North Korea. The sanctions go after the "illicit activities of North Korean diplomatic personnel, North Korean banking relationships, illicit transfers of bulk cash and new travel restrictions", most of which will not directly affect the vast majority of children in the country.

source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/05/us-proposes-toug...

sidcool2• 13 years ago

Does Pyongyang have no PR?

mseebach4• 13 years ago

This is their PR. You wrongly assume you're the target for their PR-moves.

enginous• 13 years ago

Interesting how the New York Times covers this more as a threat than a political move.

The New York Times: "North Korea Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack"

BBC News: "North Korea ramps up nuclear rhetoric as UN vote looms" (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-21695887)

adventured12• 13 years ago

Easier to trivialize when you're not the one being threatened with nuclear attack I think.

pilooch• 13 years ago

There's this counter-intuitive trend that when the heritage of a dictatorial seat goes to a young one, everyone awaits for reforms, whereas the regime tends to rapidly increase its aggressive behavior. The same happened in Syria when Bachar got his seat. I'd be interested in listing other examples, typically in less recent history.

mseebach4• 13 years ago

Well, I guess it still counts as recent history, but Gorbachev and the August 1991 coup in the Soviet Union - for an example of what happens when you try to be a reformer.

I really don't think it's counter-intuitive? Even a dictator doesn't rule alone, so when there's a change of power, the new ruler needs to assure his immediate subordinates that their loyalty will not go unrewarded and that he's not going to be a reformer and throw them and their fiefdoms under the bus.

If you're a regime big-wig in North Korea you're not dumb enough that you don't know that you're in the wrong - or, at least, that there is absolutely no way you and your family is going to survive having to explain yourself to the public.

So if your boss decides to put the country on the path to more freedom, you have the option of seeking asylum for your and your family in one of the few countries in the world that will take you, and live the rest of your life (a) in fear of angry underlings out for your life (b) in a lot less comfort than you're used to - or to stage a coup, kill your boss and assume power to "protect the revolution against corrupting, imperialist US influences".

saosebastiao• 13 years ago

DRPK's military is still stuck in the 1950's.

Our military got caught with its pants down when going up against a military that was trained in the hills of Afghanistan in the 1980's...and responded by combining its perfected 1950's style warfare with a 2010's style drone warfare, and fairly quickly learned its lesson with the 1980's style warfare.

I can't imagine what it would be like to go up against a military that has skipped 2 generations ahead of yours. North Korea either truly has no clue what they are up against, or they are just trying to get more aid money again.

adventured12• 13 years ago

Isn't the case that the US obliterated the Taliban's military forces (not their ability to wage a guerrilla war) using a rather clever special forces + bombing + northern alliance approach?

I don't think we got caught with our pants down at all. Guerrilla war in Afghanistan always has to be assumed. I personally don't know anybody that thought a prolonged occupation of Afghanistan was going to go well, and I'm talking about laypersons. The powers that be might have thought they could handle it, but that's not the same as getting caught with your pants down.

I'd argue the US got caught with its pants down radically more so in Iraq than Afghanistan (specifically post the initial invasion).

rthomas62• 13 years ago

It's funny how North Korea's open threats against South Korea and the US are met with basically rolling of eyes, while veiled threats from Iran against Israel and the US are met with massive fear and warmongering.

icey• 13 years ago

Iran doesn't have China on its side.

rthomas62• 13 years ago

Neither does North Korea, when it comes to this. Also, Iran could be said to have Russia on its side. I think the difference comes down to it being more politically expedient to Israel's and the US's interests for Iranian regime change.

adventured12• 13 years ago

It's a concern about Iran's (their leadership's) willingness to commit suicide to destroy Israel. And particularly about the belief in self-fulfilling prophecies in religious doctrine (whether Christianity, Islam, or Judaism). Communists don't generally believe in an afterlife, and I would argue also aren't viewed as being as likely to be suicide bombers. It is thus Iran presents a different kind of fear: namely that the world is afraid they're willing to die to kill their enemy; that Iran is actually crazier than North Korea, despite the bluffing on North Korea's part.

cpeterso2• 13 years ago

In what ways is Iran's leadership more "willing to commit suicide" than North Korea's leadership? We know North Korea has nuclear weapons and they have directly threatened to use them against the US. We don't know Iran has nuclear weapons and, AFAIK, they have not threatened the US. Iran has threatened Israel, but Iran is responding to actual military strikes from Israel. Also, Iran has shown for the decades that they (most likely) won't act on their threats.

zubentok2• 13 years ago

Because there is oil in Iran that can be harvested while engaging in war and "freeing" the people.

New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

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