Waymo's market share in San Francisco exceeds Lyft's

https://underscoresf.com/in-san-francisco-waymo-has-now-bested-lyft-uber-is-next/

by namanyayg • 1 year ago

139 124 1 year ago

gonzalohm• 1 year ago

The other day I decided to compare Uber and Waymo. I ordered a Waymo and it was slightly annoyed because it took 5 minutes to do a left turn and almost went into the wrong way.

On the way back I ordered an Uber, one driver cancelled the drive, the other started driving in the other direction, possibly using multiple car sharing apps and finishing another ride.

I ended up cancelling and requesting a Waymo. It may not be perfect but at least it comes when requested

iwontberude4• 1 year ago

Several times I have ordered Uber Black early in the morning and watched as the driver clearly was leaving their house and walking out to their vehicle taking a nice 5+ minutes -- somewhat frustrating. You can't even spend your way out of the problem on Uber.

jjice• 1 year ago

I'm in the North East, so I've never used a Waymo, but I swear the last two or so years of ride share of sucked. I mostly take it to and from the airport, but I have about a 50% likelihood of my Uber drive getting either racist, preachy about religion, or taking a wrong turn that ends up tacking on another ten minutes. Usually those come in sets. I used to really like some pleasant small talk or a silent ride (whatever the driver leaned towards), but it's awful in my city now.

Just a month ago my Lyft driver said that God was telling him that the girl he was seeing was a whore because she said he should seek alcohol counseling.

Like six months ago my Uber driver (out of nowhere) said that the driver next to us on the highway (an Audi driving completely normally) must sell drugs to be able to afford a car that nice. The Audi driver was a black man.

When I'm out of town, that rate feels like it decreases though.

That all said, I'd take a Waymo in a heartbeat.

baxtr• 1 year ago

I’d take a Waymo in a heartbeat.

On a personal level I fully understand that.

On a societal level I’d say, maybe it’s helpful not to be completely segregated from a certain social class that seems to exist in your town and to be exposed to them, albeit briefly during a cab ride.

morkalork• 1 year ago

Ah so sounds like the average cab driver experience. Uber has been one long and consistent regression towards the mean in that sense. I did get a good chuckle out of the taxi I saw recently with the "Do you follow Jesus this closely?" bumper sticker at least.

TylerE2• 1 year ago

I almost always have headphones (or passive earmuffs) on so conversation isn't really an issue - but the number of rideshare cars with multiple warning lights on (Tire pressure, etc) is really rather alarming.

standardUser3• 1 year ago

But on an economic level, a subset of blue-collar workers (which numbers in the tens of thousands in San Francisco) would find themselves either regionally displaced or outright vocationally exterminated by a branch of artificial intelligence.

A lot to unpack there, but it does act as a reminder that most people have been highly critical of the rideshare business model, considering these jobs to be profoundly unfair an unsustainable for drivers. So it comes off as disingenuous to hear claims that we're going to lose an important working class profession. No, we're going to lose a profession that, outside of the densest cities, never made economic sense in the 21st century. It's a profession we want to see disappear. Not that it entirely matters considering that consumers are inevitably going to choose the cheaper, safer option regardless of which jobs may be at stake.

readthenotes1• 1 year ago

It is also a profession that doesn't make sense in the densest of cities. There's too much car traffic, and too many square meters allocated to undersupply it.

JumpCrisscross8• 1 year ago

a profession that doesn't make sense in the densest of cities. There's too much car traffic, and too many square meters allocated to undersupply it

Street-side parking in downtown areas is far more wasteful than ridesharing cars.

somewhereoutth2• 1 year ago

The crazy thing about ridesharing and similar, is that the workers are providing the capital (the cars), but the company is making the profits!

cman1444• 1 year ago

Drivers make profits as well, no?

levocardia• 1 year ago

It's a profession we want to see disappear

Really? Next time you take an Uber, ask your driver how much they'd like it if they abruptly lost their job. Nobody is forcing people to drive Uber, unemployment is incredibly low, it's not like there aren't other opportunities. Some people actively value being able to set their own hours and not constantly have a boss breathing down their neck.

ryandrake5• 1 year ago

Doesn't the "Uber Driver App" become the boss breathing down their necks, anyway? Maybe I'm wrong, but I always thought that if the driver doesn't meet performance goals or doesn't take enough passengers, or satisfy a litany of other metrics, they drop them...

Zigurd4• 1 year ago

Not all commercial arrangements are legal. Surely you can think of the reasons.

emilsedgh2• 1 year ago

Why is Uber's price not affected by Waymo is a puzzle to me.

I use Waymo's all the time. There are still some quirks they need to figure out and polish the experience, but it really is happening and it appears that Uber's head is in the sands or I'm missing something here.

standardUser3• 1 year ago

Waymo and Uber have partnerships in some cities, like Phoenix, where you can only order a Waymo through the Uber app. So they don't view each other only as competitors, though I have no clue what Uber's thinking long-term.

emilsedgh2• 1 year ago

I've heard this argument again but just because you can hail a Waymo through Uber doesn't mean Uber can continue as-is. In a world where Uber is just the app, Uber's margins would be extremely thin and it wouldn't justify the market price it has now.

Also, why would Waymo, in the long term, use Uber for this?

They have the car, the driver, the app/software. They are not gonna share a big chunk of the profit with Uber in long term. The current partnership is probably just a tactical thing for both, not a strategic one.

tonyhb• 1 year ago

In the partnership model Waymo charges uber for the ride and Uber charges the customer.

The interesting thing is that uber loses money on every ride. Waymo charges Uber more than Uber charges the customer.

On Uber’s side, though, this is preferable to losing the entire ride. Uber loses much more slowly by controlling the distribution and losing a few dollars per ride than by losing the entire customer base with no revenue from these customers.

dosinga• 1 year ago

This is true. Then again Google used to power Yahoo!'s search and then ended up replacing Yahoo! as the default web destination

boulos• 1 year ago

Small correction: in Phoenix you can also use the Waymo One app directly. In both Austin and Atlanta though, we are only available via Uber.

mft_• 1 year ago

Scalability? Waymo is operating in a handful of carefully chosen US cities. Uber can probably open in any city in the world (within reason) with probably a few weeks' effort.

I agree with your underlying premise that in the (very) long term, all taxis will be automated; I guess the gamble for investors is how long that transition takes, across the globe.

fasthands9• 1 year ago

I wouldn't touch Uber stock, but the PE ratio is only 15. My guess is the market is expecting them to be able to still grow in the next few years even if they eventually face tough competition.

I think there's also the fact that if self-driving cars take off and price goes down, people will ultimately rely on taxis/delivery more than ever. Maybe there is a place for Uber to be the platform for that still, maybe not.

username2232• 1 year ago

Waymo is operating in a handful of carefully chosen US cities. Uber can probably open in any city in the world (within reason) with probably a few weeks' effort.

This. Uber can operate anywhere that has human drivers and cell service. Waymo needs (I think) high-precision maps that are frequently updated, and simple traffic behavior.

Traffic in Lima looks like absolute chaos to an American, with endless honking and lane markers treated as vague suggestions, but there are not constant crashes, because the (mostly professional) drivers know the local conventions and communicate with each other by horn, eye contact, hand signal, etc. Huaraz is full of blind 4-way intersections with no stop signs, so drivers honk as they get close to one, and there is a remarkable lack of fiery death.

Waymo can't work in most places until it either changes human driving, or achieves AGI. Uber works as soon as it can pay local drivers.

darth_avocado• 1 year ago

Uber eats and other diversifications. Unlike Lyft, which refused to diversify, which I always thought was a strange choice especially once the pandemic hit, Uber not only the dominant player but also diversified enough where it will most likely still be the #1 player, with the second seat now being Waymo. Based on how Waymo scales from city 1 to city n, it is extremely hard for them to do 100 cities at once. And international expansion will be almost impossible. Uber will still continue to dominate those markets.

AlotOfReading2• 1 year ago

The thing people miss about Uber is that Waymo doesn't need to scale to 100 cities at once to eviscerate Uber's ride hail business. They need to win the couple dozen largest cities that make up the vast majority of Uber's profits. The rest of the world drives less volume and costs vastly more to service when you account for things like regulatory compliance, internationalization, payments, and support.

nradov• 1 year ago

Lyft is slightly diversified with bike rental in a few cities, although that's only a small fraction of their revenue.

bpodgursky• 1 year ago

My hesitation to use Uber is rarely about price. It's about the miserable experience of having a driver who cancels or never shows up. Prices bumping up or down 20% doesn't move the needle.

jaredhallen• 1 year ago

I was in SF yesterday and wanted to try out a Waymo, but apparently they're not operating right now.

azinman2• 1 year ago

Wow, must be because of the protests. It’s so bad that people take out their aggression for the president on Waymo of all things.

roncesvalles3• 1 year ago

I don't think the people setting cars on fire have any opinion whatsover about the president.

ryandrake5• 1 year ago

I wanted to try out Waymo, but their app won't run on my phone which is limited to iOS 15.

muglug• 1 year ago

Lyft seems to have suffered more (proportionately) from Waymo than Uber in SF.

I bet that’s a reflection of a large “anyone-but-Uber” contingent stemming from the Travis Kalanick days.

culopatin• 1 year ago

Because Lyft is an afterthought. Uber is a verb

iwontberude4• 1 year ago

Uber is a prefixal adjective or adverb

Uehreka• 1 year ago

I don’t know about that. Me and everyone I know use Uber as a verb but then always order from Lyft. I used to do it for the political reasons, but at this point it’s mostly just muscle memory. When I do open the Uber app the prices are usually equivalent.

roncesvalles3• 1 year ago

Uber is global, so I think most visitors and tourists default to using Uber. I wouldn't be surprised if the non-Uber players in every rideshare market attract a totally different demographic - more local, more savvy, maybe daily commuters who tend to "comparison-shop" each trip.

If this is the case then if Waymo is consistently cheaper than Lyft, it would totally suck the air out for Lyft. Whereas, Uber would still see use despite charging a little premium, for the reason I stated in the beginning.

moomoo112• 1 year ago

Waymo is the first tech product/service I’ve used in the last decade that actually blew my mind.

The last time was when I could take photos on my phone that were as good enough as lugging around a Dslr.

There have been good products and services in between don’t get me wrong. But none of them instantly blew me away like those.

roncesvalles3• 1 year ago

There is still no phone on which photos are as good as on a DSLR. I think people have just forgotten how good DSLR photos can be.

moomoo112• 1 year ago

* as good enough is what I said.

steelframe2• 1 year ago

The last time I was in SF I used Waymo to get around town and Uber to get to the airport.

The Waymo rides were near-perfect. At one point when a delivery truck was blocking 3 lanes, the vehicle assertively merged over into the free lane to get around. A couple of people on e-bikes were all over the place, but at no point did I feel that the vehicle put them in any kind of danger. Starts, stops, and turns were all smooth. End-to-end time was good, the ride itself was comfortable, and the price was reasonable.

On the other hand the Uber driver picked me up in a Tesla that had regen cranked up. They continually accelerated and decelerated the entire way to the airport, rocking the car back and forth the whole time, as if it were a nervous habit to continually press and release the accelerator or something. I felt sick by the time we got to my terminal.

For me at this point, technology like Waymo can't carpet every metropolitan area quickly enough.

One caveat: I should be able to use it (and, hence, pay for it) anonymously.

Animats2• 1 year ago

One caveat: I should be able to use it (and, hence, pay for it) anonymously.

That it requires a Google account is worth taking up with the TCP. That's a tie-in sale.

autobodie5• 1 year ago

The TCP?

ggsp• 1 year ago

Is it possible to use Uber anonymously?

ketzo• 1 year ago

They’re probably comparing to taxis, where you can pay in cash.

autobodie5• 1 year ago

One caveat: I should be able to use it (and, hence, pay for it) anonymously.

I assume you mean this as a moral claim and I can agree in that case. However, it's meaningless of course and kind of infuriating in any other light, because this is the world everyone has been mindlessly begging for and there is no chance that it comes without extremely severe consequences. An automated world like this means even less power for working people than ever before, so how on Earth do you expect to realize any of these desires? Do you still think capitalists care about your privacy? Even if they did "care" it wouldn't matter because they have to compete.

zdragnar2• 1 year ago

Do you still think capitalists care about your privacy?

Why do you think most people did in the first place? We (speaking for the majority of consumers) care more about free services than we do having our privacy protected.

The fact that there are a seemingly endless stream of cases of identity fraud and leaks of private data and we still continue to use all the services indicates that we don't value it very much.

Do I care that Google knows I went to Amazon after searching for a particular book title? Nope. Do I care that Google knows I went to the grocery store today? Still no. I would much rather get a great search engine, free maps, GPS, email, documents, storage, photo backups and more.

If I did care about the privacy of these things, I'd pay for it. Or, I'd use a dedicated account on a different service on a different device that can't be connected if I want to do something I don't want others knowing about, like buying naughty lingerie for my partner or something.

steelframe2• 1 year ago

so how on Earth do you expect to realize any of these desires?

The same way this sort of thing has always been accomplished: Government regulation.

Vote, write reps, donate to the ACLU and EFF, socialize.

scosman• 1 year ago

I’d like to use it anonymously too but it doesn’t feel reasonable to ask for access to a $80k piece of hardware anonymously. I needed to give ID to rent a movie at blockbuster.

lostlogin3• 1 year ago

I’ve been trying to think of other expensive things you can do anonymously. Busses aren’t cheap, but have a driver. You can ride a plane (national only) here in NZ with no ID check. There is a name on the ticket, but no one checks it matches the passenger. Plenty of staff and other passengers around too.

cpard• 1 year ago

You hit an important point here.

Waymo is offering a very consistent experience, from the car that is used to the driving behavior.

Taxi services in the past, at least where I grew up, were kind of enforcing a more consistent experience by having requirements about the car and even the color.

But the driving experience was always highly variable and is getting solved by self driving cars.

With uber and Lyft you as the customer gave away some of the experience elements with the promise of cheaper and more abundant transportation.

But the experience has gone so bad, that getting into a Waymo feels so refreshing.

ethbr12• 1 year ago

The problem is inherent in any business that scales revenue by volume.

For many goods (short term rental spaces, rideshares), there's a finite supply of quality at a given price point.

Both AirBnb and Uber/Lyft tried to over-scale their supply, to drive revenue, and quality suffered.

Now they're fishing for the Amazon-ian point where they maximize revenue without making people so unhappy they stop using the service.

Zigurd4• 1 year ago

E-bikes are the way to move anonymously. If you're in an environment with any traffic congestion, they stand a good chance of getting you there faster than a car. Another reason to promote bike lanes.

amy_petrik• 1 year ago

In most of the US, and in urban areas in particular, absolutely E-bikes are king. In California or the bay area in particular, motorcycles are a major contender due to ability to take on highways at speed, but still able to cut through traffic (lane splitting i.e. cutting between cars is 100% legal, but only in California, and neither legal nor illegal in DC), not to mention more power and range generally. The big difference here however is parking. Squeezing a motorcycle between to parallel parked cars is still significantly easier than finding parking for a 4-wheeled vehicle, but with a bicycle one can practically park anywhere that the bicycle can be locked up (depending on common sense decisions of how mad a person would be if you lock to some fence, vs how long you will be parked there)

majormajor• 1 year ago

When Uber came out you often got nicer cars in nicer condition than cabs for less money. Funny that the condition thing has turned on them.

I don't have a strong opinion yet on the long-term viability of Waymo (or any other competitor) because I think we need to see two things:

* what will the cars look like in 3 years? 5?

* will autonomous tech and supporting infra (like cheap automated parking in sparse parts of cities for cars to stay when not in use) make its way into consumer products at a low enough price point, leading to heavy Waymo users turning into vehicle owners instead? This was one of the issues with the scooter/e-bike rental market.

ChrisArchitect• 1 year ago

Waymo rides cost more than Uber or Lyft and people are paying anyway

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44258139

lvl1556• 1 year ago

Wait till people start getting into accidents in these robotaxis. It’s already a complete disaster for Uber. Do you know what it takes to get coverage as a passenger if your Uber driver is an idiot? With current administration going the wild wild west route to complete deregulation, robotaxis will be very rough.

JumpCrisscross8• 1 year ago

Do you know what it takes to get coverage as a passenger if your Uber driver is an idiot?

Coverage as a passenger? For what?

lvl1556• 1 year ago

accidents

Spivak• 1 year ago

If you are riding in a Lyft and get hurt (and the Lyft is at fault), it's Lyft's medical insurance company that pays out for your medical care. Same as it is for all other auto insurance.

It's a pretty delayed process because unless the Lyft hit a tree there's usually at least two vehicles involved in the crash and the insurance companies have to fight over fault. But they do eventually pay out.

Source: Got into an accident in a Lyft. They even paid my salary for the few days I was off work.

ENGNR• 1 year ago

As a non US resident - not having to think about tipping the driver makes me excited and significantly more likely to visit. Tipping culture is just exhausting!

If someone could automate wheeling the food a few dozen metres from a restaurant kitchen to a table next it would be perfect :)

garbawarb• 1 year ago

You don't need to tip Uber/Lyft drivers. It's always been optional.

dannyr• 1 year ago

Aren't most tips are optional anyway but we're all pressured to give one?

Waymo's market share in San Francisco exceeds Lyft's

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