Shitflation, shrinkflation, inflation database

https://jonatron.github.io/shitflation/

by jonatron • 3 years ago

127 64 3 years ago

jonatron.github.io

PeterStuer2• 3 years ago

I cook from basic ingredients almost exclusively. This avoids most of the issues in this article, but then again prices for these have doubled or more over the last two years. At least there it is more in your face.

gruez2• 3 years ago

but then again prices for these have doubled or more over the last two years.

Where are you buying your food? At least according to BLS data raw ingredient inflation is nowhere near that high. If you compare the price indices between today and late 2019, the max price you see is 59% (for the entire period, not annualized). Most are in the 20-30% range. I know this is BLS data for the whole country and localized inflation might be higher in specific places and/or outside the US, but 4x higher seems like hyperbole.

Here's a comparison based on an arbitrary selection of "basic ingredients":

    category Nov. 2023 Dec. 2019 % rise
    Flour and prepared flour mixes 325.853 225.638 44.4%
    Rice, pasta, cornmeal 291.728 234.282 24.5%
    Beef and veal 415.788 313.818 32.5%
    Pork chops(4) 242.457 191.834 26.4%
    Other pork including roasts, steaks, and ribs(5) 160.961 129.193 24.6%
    Chicken(4)(5) 194.86 152.095 28.1%
    Other uncooked poultry including turkey(5) 209.362 147.475 42.0%
    Fresh fish and seafood(4)(5) 220.513 186.119 18.5%
    Eggs(4) 261.105 213.421 22.3%
    Milk(5) 176.76 144.845 22.0%
    Cheese and related products(4) 264.392 234.486 12.8%
    Fresh fruits 417.433 353.047 18.2%
    Fresh vegetables 376.284 334.875 12.4%
    Frozen fruits and vegetables(5) 186.642 142.654 30.8%
    Roasted coffee(6) 250.296 196.173 27.6%
    Sugar and sugar substitutes 261.475 186.257 40.4%
    Butter and margarine(5) 284.894 199.761 42.6%

[1] https://www.bls.gov/web/cpi/cpi-u.xlsx

[2] https://web.archive.org/web/20201022124428if_/https://www.bl...

anonymouswacker• 3 years ago

Government lies, aka statistics, conveniently ignore the cost of high quality items when doing averages. If you are buying eggs as a health conscious person, you know not to buy $1/dozen eggs any more because industry producers have made them low cost by reducing quality, feeding chickens soy and the cheapest excuse for food. The pastured ones are 5-10x the cost and the quality is night and day. US government conveniently views these things as staples, but they are not.

arcticbull8• 3 years ago

There has been significant increase in ingredient prices at grocery stores due to the consolidation of basically every chain under Kroger and Cerberus Capital Management. They've been shutting down stores, eliminating competition and dramatically raising prices. And they're trying to themselves merge.

While those core goods prices are I believe accurate, the prices at point of sale have gone up significantly more - especially in places that went from having a competitive grocery market to, well not.

Note that restaurants have done a significantly better job of controlling ingredient costs specifically because they don't shop at grocery chains.

armchairhacker3• 3 years ago

20-30% is around what I see. I still think that's high for a period of 2 years (imagine that compounding over 10-20 years...).

There was a situation a while ago where egg prices really did "double or more" (about $1/egg in the worst places). But that's also the one place I've seen where prices went back down, and big brands got charged with collusion, and there was an avian flu epidemic on top of that.

PeterStuer2• 3 years ago

US prices seem to be very different from where I live.

minkiebun• 3 years ago

FRED does a nice job of cataloguing prices of the most basic ingredients. The history on them makes clear that a lot of these stories round off to noise; people noticing things going up and not noticing when they stay flat or decline.

Take for example eggs: they’re up about 20% over the last two years… but they’re down from 15 years ago, because eggs have (mostly) stayed really cheap for a long time.

And that’s not down in inflation adjusted dollars, it’s just down.

mikeyouse• 3 years ago

Yep. You need to go back to ~1996 to get to a 2x increase in cost of food at home:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1d3aL

Though as a general rule people notice acceleration not speed, so the big pandemic bump is clearly more impactful than a slower increase.

bombcar• 3 years ago

Eggs around here were as low as 29 cents (during an egg price war, to be fair, but normal prices were well below a buck) and during whatever egg crisis there was recently peaked at nearly $4 a dozen. Both were the same "cheapest eggs in the store" though the local farm-raised eggs had a much smaller increase (maybe from $4.29 to $4.79).

Since then the cheapest eggs have come back down somewhat.

The problem is statistics count averages or price on a certain day, etc, people remember the _highest_ price they paid recently.

andy99• 3 years ago

I wonder. There was an article I saw recently about the nutritional content of either grains or vegetables going down over time. Anecdotally a lot of meat is worse, either full of water or otherwise lower quality. There was something a few years ago about butter quality going down, reportedly because of how cows were being fed. Anyway you see my point. Even basic ingredients are subject to the same kinds of -flations. "Continuous improvement" is constantly ratcheting down quality.

armchairhacker3• 3 years ago

I'd like to know if there's any way whole foods can get enshittified.

Some people say there's a real difference in health between non-organic and organic foods, others say it's BS. Anecdotally, some people say the meat and produce from places like and Walmart are worse than those from places like Whole foods, and generics are worse than brand names, even ignoring organic vs. non-organic; but I wonder how much is placebo, and how much is a real difference in nutrition. I assume that some products are literally the same thing repackaged, but others are different in ways that matter.

There's also things which are supposed to be monitored by the FDA, like using pesticides and injecting meat with saline. My understanding is that the FDA is pretty strict in the US but who knows?

Foods like:

- Fresh fruit and vegetables

- Frozen fruit and vegetables

- Canned fruit and vegetables

- Eggs

- Dairy (milk, cheese, yogurt)

- Grains (oats, rice)

- Fresh meat and fish

- Frozen meat and fish

- Canned meat and fish (e.g. canned chicken, tuna)

- Ground meat

- Seasoning

- Olive oil, butter

hammock• 3 years ago

USDA* not FDA

You are only standing at the edge of the rabbit hole friend. Don’t be afraid to take a few steps in

jonatron2• 3 years ago

New seed varieties made for growth and shelf life, greenhouse grown instead of field grown

darth_avocado• 3 years ago

I’ve done the comparison recently, the difference between the same brand from Whole Foods and Safeway for example is basically none, with Whole Foods selling it at a premium. However, the quality can vary if you buy a premium brand from Whole Foods vs the generic from Safeway.

lozenge4• 3 years ago

From what I understand, if you want to farm in a way that prioritises taste and quality over cost, you need to get that Organic certification. Otherwise, consumers will not pay for it.

Meanwhile, you could also chase the Organic certification to fetch a higher price, but not care about the taste... then it's up to the buyer (mainly the grocery store) whether you reached their quality bar.

I think there's a big regional variation as well. By the time the avocados get from CA to NJ, maybe the different offerings don't taste that different. But the opposite might be true for another foodstuff.

not_the_fda• 3 years ago

The same, but I don't think the inflation has been that bad, maybe 20% over the two years, with it leveling off the last couple months.

hayesti• 3 years ago

Nice idea. A couple of small suggestions:

- Perhaps choose some base rate of inflation and determine if the product price has increased in line with that or slower/faster.

- Use a bold font to highlight the product weight.

- Use an archived version of the product page today - that will reduce maintenance time moving forward.

And a question: are you using net or gross weight? When using gross weight it may very well be an update in packaging that is impacting the reported number.

arcticbull8• 3 years ago

Also, there's a lot of questionable things going on here.

For instance, a big red flag on the bacon that went from 90% pork to 89% pork. That sounds like a rounding error to me. Certainly not worthy of calling out.

Then tomato sauce (a preserved product) moving from raw tomato to preserved tomato getting called out when by all accounts, I can't imagine why that would matter. The product is after all, a preserved tomato product. Benefit of the doubt I'd just call it a recipe change. It may be better now. Just because it's different doesn't make it worse.

Finally the Chicken Tikka going from 26% marinated chicken to 14% cooked marinated chicken. That line item includes the marinade in both cases - which evaporates during cooking. How much of that is lost water and fat? How much of that was just the marinade cooking off?

Why is "deflation" just as red as "inflation" and "shitflation" - isn't that what you want? Lower prices?

I'm confused, I think this is a pretty weak presentation all around.

It would be really interesting to learn the magnitude of these effects but the way it's presented here it's hard to learn anything.

lazide• 3 years ago

Eh, shrinkflation is a number of small things like 90% pork to 89% pork. Do that 5-10 times, 1-2% at a time - and now you're at 75% pork.

26% marinated chicken to 14% cooked marinated chicken - what makes you think the lost fat made it into the meal, and wasn't skimmed off and sold off to (for example) a broth company, or a rendering plant?

Maybe it was. If they could figure out how to make money off it though, chances are it wasn't.

Also, how would you know it wasn’t really 20% chicken cooked down to 14%?

It's a good way to lose actual calories and nutrients while thinking you're not losing anything. Which is also either shitflation or shrinkflation, depending on how you count it.

Totally agree on deflation, etc. though. That could also be from switching to reasonable quality ingredients to total crap ingredients that technically can be listed as the same thing on the label.

The challenge in general is it's the economy wide equivalent of shaving silver dollars - lots of small, invisible losses done by potentially many individuals that eventually add up to real visible differences and economy wide losses. In a way it's really hard to figure out who actually stole things.

jonatron2• 3 years ago

Then tomato sauce (a preserved product) moving from raw tomato to preserved tomato getting called out when by all accounts, I can't imagine why that would matter. The product is after all, a preserved tomato product. Benefit of the doubt I'd just call it a recipe change.

Compare the nutrition information per 100g. Less carbs, sugars, fat, protein, fibre, but more salt.

brvsft3• 3 years ago

https://vegetarische.wordpress.com/2009/06/06/understanding-...

Tomato Puree
Made from cooked tomatoes that have been strained of seeds and skins. Often this is just “reconstituted tomato paste,” made by adding water to tomato paste. This product has weak tomato flavor and isn’t called for in many recipes. Use in chilis, soups, and other long-cooked recipes where smooth, rich tomato texture is required. Many American commercial pasta sauces have tomato puree as their first ingredient (because tomato paste is cheaper to ship) which is why they’re not as fresh tasting as homemade sauces. I don’t think this exists in Germany, but it doesn’t matter so much because you’re going to be adding it to recipes that calls for long cooking times and many ingredients. If you have a recipe that calls for it, you can make it by adding water to tomato paste, or cooking down passierte tomatoes.

No idea how accurate this is, but I would assume it's true and thus "partially reconstituted tomato puree" is less ideal for a pasta sauce (where you likely want more of a tomato flavor).

karaterobot• 3 years ago

For instance, a big red flag on the bacon that went from 90% pork to 89% pork. That sounds like a rounding error to me. Certainly not worthy of calling out.

The reason you can say that there is no consequential difference being illustrated here is precisely because he recorded that difference. It's just data collection, it's not shady unless they hide the numbers and still draw the conclusions for you.

FrustratedMonky• 3 years ago

Can we get a DB for "Shitification".

teddyh• 3 years ago

As soon as there is a metric for it.

mdorazio• 3 years ago

I'd love to see this also and was hoping to see it in this page. I think it would need to be industry-specific, though, and the stats are hard to come by.

For example, I fly a lot for work and have noticed delays and cancellations are a lot higher than they used to be. The data seems to support this in aggregate [1], but I'd like to see it by carrier.

Service enshitification is a lot harder to quantify, but is definitely another thing I've noticed at checkouts, restaurants, etc.

[1] https://www.transtats.bts.gov/homedrillchart.asp

CoastalCoder• 3 years ago

I'd love to see legislation requiring prominent advertising of any changes to a product that buyers might see as a negative. E.g.:

- Smaller product quantity, when previously sold at an apparently similar quantity (secret shrinkflation).

- Changes in food recipe (secret food enshitification).

- (maybe) changes in nutritional value or flavor for farm produce. I'm not sure how this is possible or practical, but I'm thinking about claims that e.g. tomatoes taste worse and are less nutritious than they were a few decades ago.

- Changes in non-food products that worsen performance. E.g., SSD makers switching to cheaper and slower components after initial reviews have come out, but still retaining the same product name. (secret non-food enshitification)

JumpCrisscross2• 3 years ago

legislation requiring prominent advertising of any changes to a product

Probably can’t do this across the board. But one could certainly link trademark rights to it. The purpose of a trademark is to signal to consumers what they’re buying, after all.

CoffeeOnWrite3• 3 years ago

This, uh, isn’t a database? I clicked through to the GitHub and see only a hard coded html file with the small handful of Tesco comparisons, and a single screenshot. Where is the database? What am I missing? Why is this interesting?

jen20• 3 years ago

The Wikipedia page defines a database as an organized collection of data, which is what this is.

CoffeeOnWrite3• 3 years ago

Would you share a reply that is more helpful than this “technically correct” reply? IE what is this “database” useful for? Why is it noteworthy? I’m genuinely curious.

wonderwonder3• 3 years ago

There are few things in life more irritating than opening a bag of chips and its only 1/3 full. Its all a scam

JohnMakin2• 3 years ago

That is not what this is. The amount of chips and the ingredients in the bag will usually be fairly consistent. The effect you're describing is due to packaging, where things like chips will settle to the bottom of the package over time and during shipping.

lozenge4• 3 years ago

Yes, there's always been air in the bag, but not like this.

Food inflation has been over 10% for two years now in the UK so it's been very noticeable.

wonderwonder3• 3 years ago

Sure, its just intentionally misleading and irritating. I very much doubt the bag was full when it left the factory and is only 1/3 full at purchase due to settling

geodel4• 3 years ago

Well, weight is written on package. Not sure if one really expects 3 times more chips for that weight.

lozenge4• 3 years ago

Do you remember what was written on the package last time you bought it? Times the 100 products you buy. Will you notice the new void added at the bottom of the jar? Or the gap between servings hidden under the label and around the transparent window?

wonderwonder3• 3 years ago

how much does a chip weigh? Do you check weights on all of the products you purchase. Having a back that is 2/3 empty and filled with air is clearly intended to mislead.

geodel4• 3 years ago

Well, very few items. Also, I am surprised in almost ten years prices have not gone up by much and quantity reduction is just about ~10%.

Seems to me these much-maligned supermarkets are giving better value to customers than much-loved restaurants.

ricardo81• 3 years ago

Fantastic idea, particularly the 'shit' part IMO.

Realistically can the average person care enough to use this information, to measure value? Possibly some abstraction and scale for more casual comparison would be useful.

Normalising the idea of this kind of data and having a historical frame of reference like this would/could be a pretty solid resource, especially when looking at particular brands.

vondur• 3 years ago

Lol, "Shitflation" sounds like something Lahey would say from the Trailer Park Boys TV show.

carlo2• 3 years ago

Nice.

I've got a constantly growing dataset of price and quantity history for all products in one supermarket's database (Ocado, the online-only supermarket in the UK I shop at). Doesn't include ingredients at the moment, but I do like the idea of that. Also only a few months of data so far.

Anyway, I've made it available as a website in a way that is hopefully useful – it is to me at least: https://ocamatic.uk/

throwitaway222• 3 years ago

I'm starting to see "cheatflation", Last 2 days -

Bought 3 granola bar boxes that advertises 6 each box. Open them all, throw them in a bag once a week. This week there are 17. Hmmm.

Taco shells, should be 12 in a box. Had 11 in one of them today (none were broken). I wouldn't be surprised if the "weight" of those bags of chips filled to 1/3 is a mix of settling and also cheatflation.

MrMember• 3 years ago

This was a while ago but a pack of frozen egg rolls I used to buy a lot said "approximately 6 egg rolls per box." I always thought it was funny they used "approximately" and I always had 6 egg rolls in the box. Until one time I got 5. I couldn't even be mad.

antifa• 3 years ago

What about some of the forms of inflation that don't have as easily measured implications, such as Disney no longer making individual movies available for purchase, McDonald's planning to end self-serve drink stations by 2032, and some products no longer being available in bulk packages?

Shitflation, shrinkflation, inflation database

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