What unemployment? Nothing like that in United States of Software

http://college2startup.tumblr.com/post/9878209155/what-unemployment-nothing-like-that-in-united-states

by safarimong10 • 15 years ago

44 70 15 years ago

college2startup.tumblr.com

A demand for workers is not the same thing as no unemployment. Plenty of people out there with outdated skillsets.

Luckily for folks with outdated skillsets, you can learn and practice almost anything in software these days for free from the net. Back in the day you might have had to go back to school, now it's a matter of buckling down and brushing up on your Rails.

simonw• 15 years ago

You need an incredibly high level of computer literacy first though.

hacknut13• 15 years ago

But that's their point. When you have people with no jobs, that counts for the unemployment. But even I know how difficult it is to find people to hire for our company as I do HR for a technology firm. There is a high demand, just shortage of people to fill the positions.

maxxxxx4• 15 years ago

I see an increasing unwillingness of companies to train people who don't have EXACTLY the right skillset. This used be different in the 90s.

simcop2387• 15 years ago

This can also be a function of density of capable talent where you are. I know in my area it can take a while to get a technology position (took me 8 months) due to there being very intense competition. However I did receive more than one offer to an area that I could not afford to relocate to due to other issues (mostly taxes). It seems like there are some great disparities in where the talent is and where the jobs are. The solution would seem to be for someone (people or the company) to move or to find a way for people to be able to work from a larger area around the business.

geebee5• 15 years ago

To become a software developer (especially the kind with a CS related degree), you need:

-A highly analytical mindset

-The ability to handle tough math

-The ability to read dense material and process it quickly

-The mindset to persevere, test, investigate, and find obscure problems in complex systems

-The ability to see a project through to its finish

-The ability to explain complex logic and design, verbally and in writing

It also helps immensely to have

- The ability to work well in a team, and good general social skills (the notion that this isn't important in software development is a silly myth, it's incredibly important)

- The ability to complete lengthy and difficult academic programs, without veering off into less demanding majors that give you more time to party.

- A family or other benefactor that can fund and support you through these academic programs (I knew a dude who tried to major in CS while working 25hrs a week in retail. Extraordinary people can do this, but it's very difficult to carry physics, math, cs, and a humanities elective under these circumstances. Many smart people fail even when school is their only "job").

It makes absolutely no sense to compare a person like this to the national average. The general unemployment rate has nothing to do with the unemployment rate for people like this.

So is the unemployment rate actually low for software developers, or is it simply low for all people with the traits listed above, regardless of field? You could reasonably argue that jobs go begging in software largely because the field is not competitive with the other professions/trades that people with these traits have available to them.

pavel_lishin5• 15 years ago

I don't think that math is universally necessary - it's actually rare that I need to sit down and write equations and think about something mathematically. (Unless I'm a genius who does it in his head, and trust me, I'm not.)

And a 25-hour-a-week job doesn't seem that overwhelming. I think I worked 20 hours a week with a 30 minute commute each way - unless you're having a truly difficult time with the core concepts, a 15 hour course load and a 25 hour work load isn't much harder than starting any new job.

onemoreact• 15 years ago

Mathematical literacy is more than just writing down complex equations.

for (a = 0; a < n; a++) { for (b = 0; b < n; b++) { do_something(a,b); }}

How many times is do_something called? If you can say n^2 in under 15 seconds you are now better at math than the average American.

geebee5• 15 years ago

I knew very smart guy who worked over 30 hours a week on compilers alone. He got an A-. Maybe he could have gotten away with less work.

This was a notoriously difficult prof at a notoriously tough program, though. So maybe not typical.

jinushaun• 15 years ago

I agree. Just like I'm not going to tell someone who is more analytical to get into graphic design. Creative people go to school for design to sharpen their skill, not to learn how to think creatively.

kabdib• 15 years ago

Disagree on "tough math". Strongly disagree.

Be analytical, practical and tenacious. Know how to abstract, design, program. Know tools, know platforms. Know how to triage and actually ship stuff. Be good to work with. Keep learning, constantly. Read tons of code.

But "tough math"? Honestly, haven't needed anything more than simple statistics for most problems.

"Tough math" seems more like an ego thing. I'd watch out for that.

shoota2• 15 years ago

You're correct for general problem solving in computer science. However, in order to get a degree from most universities you have to have taken 3 courses in calculus, a course in linear algebra and a course in differential equations. To most people those courses are "tough math".

geebee5• 15 years ago

I agree. Even as a math major myself, I have only needed formal math when math was part of the domain knowledge. Math is a great major, but I think you can be an absolutely top programmer with a degree in a different subject or no degree at all.

I mentioned this because if you want to be the kind of programmer with a CS or related degree, you'll need to be very good at math.

maxxxxx4• 15 years ago

In Germany there is the word "Schweinezyklus". Pig cycle. It's mostly prevalent in engineering. It works like this: 1. Companies complain about not having enough qualified engineers

2. Everybody gets told to get into engineering in college

3. Boom crashes. Companies lay off engineers. The new engineering graduates don't get hired and are unemployed

4. Everybody flees engineering

5. Back to step 1.

I think we are at the end of step 1 and 2. -

namdnay• 15 years ago

I'd go further and say this is a big problem for any supply-demand system where there is significant latency. Farming, Degrees etc. Wave effects seem inevitable in this case

cperciva• 15 years ago

I don't think this quite captures the situation. Companies aren't complaining about a lack of credentialed developers; they're complaining about a lack of competent developers.

In 2000 there were far more people graduating with computing degrees than in 1995; but the average quality was far far lower. The people who suddenly found that they couldn't get jobs when the dot-com bubble burst? Most of them didn't belong in the industry in the first place.

maxxxxx4• 15 years ago

I knew plenty of people who were top-notch developers who didn't find jobs back then.

akeefer• 15 years ago

I finished undergrad in 2002, and no one was hiring then, even for Stanford CS grads. No one wanted people fresh out of school because there were so many unemployed engineers with 5+ years of experience that there was no incentive to take someone straight out of school.

jeffdavis• 15 years ago

Anything with delayed results will have cycles. You express cynicism, but there's no great evil behind it. Predicting the number and type of people that should study engineering today for work ten years from now is no easy task. It will always be a little bit wrong.

And at least you end up with educated people and the fruits of engineering work. The alternative is giving up: "I might as well not learn anything very useful, because there might be a period in the future where it's not so useful for a while."

maxxxxx4• 15 years ago

I don't think this cycle is evil. I just want people to be careful when they read stuff like this in the article:

"Are you in college and bothered about the job market ahead of your graduation, should you consider switching majors? maybe. The industry is booming and doesn’t look like it will be slowing down anytime soon. In the middle of all the unemployment, maybe we can take solace in the never ending demand for Engineers."

After a boom there is always a bust. And the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust.

qaexl• 15 years ago

I'm observing some people trying to break into technology. Yes, there are online tools available. Yes, many of them are free. One of the complaints I hear is that the target platform you choose moves so fast.

Generalized, it means software -- the technology and the economy -- runs at a higher tempo. In order to step into the stream, you have to first match the new tempo.

I suspect that the rest of the economy stays in a slump because they are out-of-phase tempo-wise with software technology ... or that the tools that drive up the tempo of innovation in software has not made it out to the mainstream yet. (And even if it did, it will leave people behind simply because there are people who will refuse to impedance match).

vondur• 15 years ago

I'm sure if the economy continues its downward spiral, these software jobs will evaporate just like many of the others.

pagekalisedown2• 15 years ago

That reminds me of how people use to think that games were recession-proof before 2008 or so. Then the numbers came in. Quite a reality check when your sales drop by a third in a very short amount of time. All the big publishers took note.

pnathan• 15 years ago

Depends on the industry it services. I expect the Angry Birds/Farmville -style software shops to collapse at some point.

However, shops that turn out embedded system components & other infrastructural support will keep chugging along.

rdouble5• 15 years ago

It's pretty region and skill specific.

If you live somewhere outside of about 4 or 5 locations in the USA, getting a programming job can be hard. Also, skills that are hot in a place like NYC or Silicon Valley are often next to useless in other areas. (learning this the hard way)

mahyarm• 15 years ago

It's ok to move, many will pay for relocation!

achille• 15 years ago

Would you mind expanding on your last sentence. What was your personal experience? I'm guessing you have Rails/NoSQL experience while the jobs at your current market tend to be Java/Oracle type?

rdouble5• 15 years ago

Yes, that is pretty much exactly what I meant.

patio113• 15 years ago

Don’t mention this in the software industry especially startups, the situation is almost the complete opposite with demand for qualified engineers more than twice the supply.

At the price startups are willing to pay, naturally. I imagine demand exceeds supply for doctors willing to work for $30k + equity + copious free beer, too.

I know a lot of people feel that $80k or $120k for developers is quite generous. It may well be generous, but if you can't hire someone for it, it is by definition below market. You know all those articles we've read about structural change? Here's another structural change: the market clearing price for engineers may soon durably transition to that of e.g. management consultants or lawyers rather than that of e.g. HR clerks or marketing directors.

Locke16892• 15 years ago

I hope so, but the problem I see is that new grads (I include myself here) are willing to work for 80k, while it's not that much of a stretch to say that the best graduates will be almost as productive in a few years as they will be in 7 or 8 years. That doesn't, however, automatically mean a commensurate salary increase, so developer salaries are kept perpetually lower than they should be. How can employers and employees adapt to this bifurcated market?

tptacek4• 15 years ago

In 1994, when I first entered the job market, $80k/year was a ridiculous number, reserved for people with unattainable-sounding skills like "PowerBuilder". Point being: look at the trend line, not the spot price. New grads today will accept $80k. Five years from now, if the market retains this level of heat, will they continue to do so?

patio113• 15 years ago

If X is repeatedly cheaper than what it should be, you should buy it instead of selling it.

Anyhow, if I'm reading you right, you think that the best college grad in 2019 will be about as good as you are in 2019, causing your salary to decrease? If I'm reading that right, you will have a very interesting eight years in industry and not worry about new college graduates ever again.

Generic career advice for every engineer: broaden skill set, get reassigned to a profit center, negotiate aggressively on comp.

What unemployment? Nothing like that in United States of Software

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