2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We'll Be in Trouble (2012)

https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/8gvbg5/2012-is-bullshit-2020-is-when-well-really-be-in-trouble

by edward • 6 years ago

71 38 6 years ago

ianai• 6 years ago

Quick read, but ultimately pretty shallow.

rgoulter• 6 years ago

SlateStarCodex's review of Turchin's "Ages of Discord" has some more discussion https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/09/02/book-review-ages-of-di...

apl002• 6 years ago

is this verified to be 8 years old? The prediction was completely correct but the shortness of the prediction makes it a bit suspicious. Although I have no idea why someone would fake this...

akhilcacharya• 6 years ago

On a tangential note:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)

koheripbal• 6 years ago

Seems it was a real prediction...

https://www.google.com/search?q=peter+turchin+2020&source=ln...

pushcx• 6 years ago

Looks like he's been writing for a while, including sticking his neck out quantitatively in a 2017 blog post: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/quantitative-prediction...

The linked short interview was probably prompted by his 2012 paper:

Extending the sequence of 1870, 1920, and 1970 forward suggests that the next instability peak shouldoccur in the United States around 2020. This is a simple projection, rather than a scientific prediction (which requires an understanding of mechanisms bringing about outbreaks of political violence; see Turchin, 2006a). The analysis of structural causes of instability waves is beyond the scope of this article and will be pursued elsewhere(Turchin, forthcoming)

http://peterturchin.com/PDF/Turchin_JPR2012.pdf (And yes, for the conspiracy theorists, you can search the DOI number to confirm this really was published in 2012.)

_y5hn• 6 years ago

Or conversely, 2020 is when we got our shit together.

NonEUCitizen• 6 years ago

7 months left...

chkaloon2• 6 years ago

November, to be more precise

SomeoneFromCA2• 6 years ago

little more than 28 weeks...

theonemind• 6 years ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)

xikrib• 6 years ago

Just a reminder how much Vice sucks

Peter’s theory is the result of the hard work of a modern, living, and well-respected scientist rather than a bunch of dead dead Central American dudes whom hippies like to talk about while taking heavy psychedelic drugs

Yeah they're dead because they were fucking slaughtered by the same forces at play in today's "violence"

pluto93• 6 years ago

Ironically this "theory" sounds like an observation someone would make while stoned.

sesuximo• 6 years ago

Not shown: the millions of other predictions of trouble that didn’t turn out

chkaloon2• 6 years ago

"how revolutions start: when members of the elite try to overturn the political order to better suit themselves." - Kind of against the conventional definition of a revolution.

gumby• 6 years ago

Is it? All revolutions are started by powerful groups from the elite who enlist people lower down in the hierarchy to help them. I cannot think of a counterexample, not even the Russian Revolution.

mywittyname3• 6 years ago

Revolutions always end with some powerful person (often from within the military) becoming the most powerful person.

pluto93• 6 years ago

Predictions like this are made all the time, nearly all of them wrong. A few are bound to be correct(ish) by sheer chance, and when they are, people dig them up and think they've found something clairvoyant.

This prediction isn't even that accurate. 1870? The major upheaval around that time started a decade earlier. So if we're allowed to fudge the numbers by 5 or 10 years to make a pattern appear, who's to say the next upheaval isn't in 2025 or 2030? And is 3 instances of anything (1870, 1920, 1970) even enough to call a pattern?

mywittyname3• 6 years ago

I'd call it a pattern, and I'd say it has a sound foundation. There are lots of generational patterns within society, like how family fortunes are lost by the third generation.

But I think the biggest issue with it is that societies don't operate on the same timeline. Generations are kind of fuzzy to pinpoint and society's response to them largely depends on their options.

pluto93• 6 years ago

Generations may play some role, but I think the extent of that is unknowable. On the other hand, I think it's pretty easy to attribute these upheavals to outside influences and circumstances of the times. The abolition of slavery arguably came about because of the industrial revolution. Moral arguments for abolition had existed for centuries. They just weren't widely accepted until machinery made them economically convenient. Then and only then did people become "enlightened" enough to end the institution.

During WWI, many men left the country and women moved into the workforce and other positions of greater influence in society. When the men returned, a conflict was inevitable, and the suffrage movement came to a head.

I assume 1970 is referring to both the Civil Rights movement and the hippie movement. Both happened when the baby boomers were in their 20s, so I suppose there was a bumper crop of young people at the time, and the hippie movement was defined by a pretty narrow age range. So those may have been generational, but not part of a larger pattern that I can see.

As for the current day, civilian resentment of police brutality and overreach has been building for decades, with much of it being a result of the war on drugs. I believe it's in the limelight now due to the internet and the existence of camera phones. The militarization of police is also more visible because they increasingly dress like soldiers, and this is a constant symbolic reminder of their attitude towards civilians. This change in apparel is a direct result of the GWOT. Military gear (both new and surplus) is now cheap and easily available. There's also a tacti-cool veteran culture that arose out of the wars, and everyone from cops to airsofters to Call of Duty players likes to emulate it. Add the COVID-19 mess to this mix and you have a recipe for disaster.

Still, it remains to be seen whether 2020 is actually part of this "pattern" anyway. No fundamental shift in society has occurred yet. So far it's just been a rough year.

theandrewbailey• 6 years ago

There are too many political entrepreneurs who are all trying to get power, and they get frustrated, which is how revolutions start: when members of the elite try to overturn the political order to better suit themselves.

So which elites are funding, and are ultimately behind today's violence? Unfortunately, any possible answer is a conspiracy theory.

metalgearsolid3• 6 years ago

Did you write this comment with a voice assistant?

hckr_news• 6 years ago

How about all of them? Each having their different motives and goals for their ideal society.

davidwf2• 6 years ago

I don't think that there's a conspiracy in any way!

The way that I interpreted this article and how it fits into the current moment is that there's a substantial portion of those dissatisfied with the current political order of permanent minority rule by people who have substantially different values from themselves who could be considered part of the "elite" of society in terms of wealth and influence.

That's not to say that there's a conspiracy theory! Coastal elites are certainly not the only people protesting, not everyone that's elite is dissatisfied with the current order, etc., etc. But IMO the current situation can be characterized as one where a large group of people, including but not in any way limited to a portion of society's "elite" grouping, are attempting to overturn the political order to better suit their values.

raarts2• 6 years ago

It sounds like you want to say conspiracies don't exist. Do you? Because many have existed in history. Many exist today. People conspire. To get power, money.

This is not a conspiracy theory but fact :) conspiracy theories can be true.

WheelsAtLarge• 6 years ago

He has a good point. Violence does go in cycles. People are happy to start a war when they haven't experienced the consequences it brings but they change their views once they experience the destruction and horrors.

The fact that he was able to pin 2020 is probably luck.

mywittyname3• 6 years ago

Well, and it's not like predicted violence would last for a year, then disappear. It's an ongoing and escalating situation.

masswerk• 6 years ago

For a non-US example, compare the aftermath of the Franco-Prussian war of 1871/72 and the build-up towards WW I (not exactly 50 years, but also a matter of generational succession.)

However, history also provides some examples, where this "logic" seems to be condensed, e.g., the rise of the Nazis in Germany, where a grand parents' generation sided with the young, often against the middle generation that was much more definied by the war experience – which resulted in the "hickup" of WW II.

EmilioMartinez• 6 years ago

He didn't "pin" it though. He said it was going to be a peak of a 10 year period.

Being that 2020 is a round number, I wonder how many other (more unsofisticated) doomsayers simply guessed.

bigdict• 6 years ago

A Seldon crisis right there.

smitty1e2• 6 years ago

Who is the Mule?

smitty1e2• 6 years ago

I guess that predictions and lottery tickets have similarly long odds.

Predictions are much cheaper, though.

2012 Is Bullshit; 2020 Is When We'll Be in Trouble (2012)

Related Stories