WheelsAtLarge

My bet is that 99% of people will never want to deal with installing an AI model on their machine. It's not worth their time and effort. Most people will get their AI from one of the hyperscalers or a server somewhere in the cloud. Think email, Gmail is a pain sometimes but we use it simply because it's so easy to get an account and not deal with maintenance. There will be a time, soon, where a good enough AI will be good enough for most people. A whatever company will have a cheap service you can buy. That's it. It's true that you can buy a cheap Apple setup relative to Nvidia but very few people want to deal with the headache of maintaining a model.

I suspect there will be a time when we will be able to install a full model in an app in an iPhone but that future is not here yet and in that future there will be other reasons why you will still want an account on the cloud. Prices will adjust accordingly. Nvidia will likely be part of that future. It's not going anywhere.

I get what you are saying but anyone that apposes the government will likely end up dead or in jail. We hear about it all the time. As a group the oligarchs have power against the government but as individuals they really don't. They just smile and continue to do what made them rich.

Extremely hopeful, there are always ways to find gloom. I'm sure 100 years, 200 years, and any other period you choose ago, people were scared of what was coming. Yet, we are here and thriving. As a species, race, nation, and individuals, we have overcome a lot and accomplished a lot. There is no reason to think that will stop. A meteor might get us, but we can't do anything about it, so there is no reason to worry about it, especially since we don't know. Our future is what we make it, so our best bet is to do our best so we get and have what we want. We are scared of what we don't know, so it's natural to feel gloomy about what's coming, but doom and gloom are not the norm. As a whole, we have done great. If you don't like what you see, then change it. Every one of the people who made a change in the world was unknown at one time. Yet, they changed that and changed the world. Don't for a second think that you can't.

It's only a matter of time before they become the lowest cost service provider. I guess space is open for competition.

I guess some people didn't get that I was being facetious. Just to be clear, SPACs did not turned out to be great investments as a whole. There are definitely better ways to invest your hard earned money.

You all renember SPACs,Special Purpose Acquisition Companies. And all the "experts" who needed the money because they had some great investment that could not be financed any other way. That wave hit its peek less than 5 years ago. Yup, that was a great way to invest. I suspect it happens at every cycle.

Someone writing page after page about how quantum hype is taking over and how bad the hype is. Yet, never telling you why. Or at least easily found on the site. Don't waste your time. Move on to another information source.

This truck is remining me of the Yugo. When the Yugos were announced people were thrilled about the price. Unfortunately after they were in use people understood why they were so cheap, quality suffered and they were basically disposable cars. Cheap is nice in theory but eventually you wish for something a bit better.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugo

The fed used to be an enigma. They never really said what they were thinking. This kept the market as the leader on where it was headed. The modern fed goes out of its way to tell the market what members are thinking. This puts the fed as the leader of where the economy is going. Which is better? For the stock market, the current fed method is better since it gives the market time to prepare for the change. The previous method was more dynamic and was led by what the economy did. Given that the fed's job is to protect the economy not the stock market. Warsh is right. Hopefully, his method will be better for the every man and their well being. After all what's good for the economy should be good for the market too. A win win situation.

Warsh needs to careful and make the change slowly. Otherwise I see a lot turbulence in the market which is never good.

Google Workspace is but the CLI is not. These are 2 related but different products. Had he just released it under his name then that wouldn't have been such a big issue, maybe, but he used the Google logo which implied it was Google blessed. If I did the same thing, they would have a case for suing me. Just because you work for Google does not mean you can release products under their name. Google spends countless of man-hours to make sure whatever product they put out is as good as possible. And support it on any issues that are found along the way. All companies protect their logo to a high degree simply because of the implications it has when people see it.

Bottom line, he did something that affected the company without any authority. His action implied the product was Google blessed without the company fully knowing about it. Google has spent billions to protect its reputation and then you have a random guy put out a self create product without the company even knowing. They had a case for suing him for millions. Of Course, they wouldn't have been able to collect but it would have been hell for him. They also had a case for criminal fraud. All in all he's lucky he only got fired.

True, it will be years before the supply expands but that does not negate the fact that it's cheaper to buy hardware than to try to squeeze performance out of software.

I know we are having issues with china and they can't produce the latest tech but I suspect they will produce ram so cheap relative to the competition that companies will find away to buy from them.

No, even at these high memory prices it's cheaper to produce code as fast as possible than to spend the time to optimize it for efficiency. It has always been the case that hardware improves at a faster pace than software. So what will happen is that we will get tech improvements in hardware that will reduce its price faster than we can write software to fully take advantage of the hardware. The current bottle neck that's causing the spike in memory prices will subside relatively soon so we'll be in better shape before we know it.

Good, having to figure out the order in which the MacOS have been released has always been a pain. Version numbers is great way to understand order of release. Why did they wait so long to do it?

I like this plan. One of the biggest problems with these powerful companies is that their leaders are making decisions that affect everybody but they only have their own interest in mind when they do it. Having a say on behalf of the people is a great idea to balance things. Also, all these companies are adverse to paying any taxes so having a financial stake by the people, where everybody benefits, is a definite plus. Lastly, financial assets equals power which means the company owners are gaining power by the dollar. Democracy does not function when power is concentrated in a few people. The plan is unlikely to come to fruition but it sure would be nice if it did.

I don't think we're quite there. If the biggest oil shock ever did not kill the bull market then this market has some pretty strong legs. Also, companies are coming in with strong earnings which will lower the high PE ratios. I'm waiting for more IPOs. More IPOs that are crazy in terms of valuation before I can say that investors have lost their minds and the market is manic.

Programming your own app is not practical. It's not worth the time. It's just easier to have someone else do it. I can probably write my own tax software using an LLM but there's no way I will spend the time to do it. It will probably cost me a few grand in tokens and I can't really know if it's accurate without taking lots of time to QA it. As programmers we've always been selling outcomes. No one accepts partially working code. It has to meet specifications. If a programmer can't do that then he/she loses their job. The programing profession is changing but it won't go away anytime soon.

I'm not feeling great about this IPO. When there's this much hype around something, it tends to peter out pretty quickly. I suspect we'll see an initial pop, followed by a sharp drop back to earth before long.

What I gather from this is that we're building super intelligence one subject at a time. We may never get true AGI but 30 years from now, or whatever number, it will certainly seem like it.

The new meme stock?

I like to bake lemon cakes on a regular basis. I looked at the recipe for lemon cake and the book uses carbonate of ammonia instead of baking powder. What's interesting is that it releases a strong smell a ammonia as the cake bakes. I can't even imagine having to deal with that smell in one of my cakes today. It's funny, we think that we have an idea of what it was like to live in previous times but I suspect that we would be completely lost if we somehow went back. Just baking a cake would have been such a different experience now imagine everything else.

yup, and humans will land in mars in 2022. At least, that's what I heard from Musk.

BS, watch how they somehow get the funding. Old people vote and they will make their unhappiness known to every elected official even if the official can't do anything about it.

The coming generations are the ones that will feel the pain. It's likely that SS will switch to a partial stock market funding. Where some of the money the government deducts will be invested in the stock market.

Why do you participate in this community? What keeps you here?

I'm not him but I love it. :)

I wonder why he thinks Milei is going to bring continued change over time? Argentina's economy has been a mess as long as I can remember, decades and decades. Why is Milei so different that's he's willing to move there? He must really see a change he can exploit.

My first thought is that this is a hallucinations. I really doubt anthropic would let something like this go by. Even if it's just local to the user.

I think that in the near future a super object oriented language will emerge that will let us create computer apps instead of programming them directly. Systems analysts, not programmers, will be able to define a computer app with the objects at a very high level and LLMs will create a JAVA like blob that can be run on multiple systems. The advantage is that the objects will be completely bug free and the app size is only limited by the systems resources. Bottom line, most app development will be done by systems analyst. The AI object programmers, a specialty, will help tweak the underlying function of each object.

Not yet, the IPOs have not started to go bunkers. We are not there yet, but eventually. Nothing goes up forever.

Here's the scenario I see: SpaceX, OpenAI and such go public; AI and tech stocks prices rise to unbelievable heights; We see news stories about someone getting close to becoming a 2x trillionaire; inflation rises; fed raises rates; stocks begin to fall; people panic sell and crash the market.

What I don't think people are taking into account is how wide spread AIs use will be. We are only seeing a very small use now. AI will eventully be coustomize for each country of the world, many of the machines we use and many new ways we can't think of right now. For that to happen we will need lots of data centers and power plants. The next 40 plus years will be bunkers in terms of the amout of productivity needed to roll out all the functions we want. It will be bigger than any recent roll out of new technology, definitely bigger than the web in size and function. No, we are not in a bubble, we are just getting started.