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This is such a smooth-brain reply, dude. The capability literally exists, today. You're telling me that it's just SO fantastical that people will be able to catch up? Give me a break. Anthropic and OpenAI are not staffed by demigods.

All you've said needs the qualifier - "for now!" Look at the trend line. It's clear that if they're not yet at the level of being "good enough" for coding, they will be soon. Sensationalist headlines aside, we all need to be preparing for a world where open models can do pretty much any software tasks you need them to.

I know that Flash is obviously no Opus or Fable. That being said, when I want a very quick response, my go-to is Gemini Flash. It's just really damn fast and generally tends to be accurate enough.

This was notably one of the "training programs" that Neo went through in The Matrix, along with a variety of other martial art styles.

Fable is very bad at wasting tokens when it comes to doing these renderings and diffs - I had the exact same experience as you.

What makes you think the supply crunch is short-term?

The reason is because AI is viewed by the powers that be as inexorably linked to national security. If you haven't noticed, every lab out there has the same excuse when pressed about the disruption caused by their technology - "we do it or else China does."

Of course not. This coming crash will be where we learn that tech is "too big to fail" in the same way that the financial system is. They'll let one player fail (likely Anthropic, due to the constant fighting with the government) and bail out the rest.

What are you talking about? We're literally in the middle of one of the most transformative technological revolutions we've ever had.

I think at the end of the day, we're still able to produce really effective technology and products. Like the economy is still functioning. I feel like this is different from the Soviet situation where the problems were more related to product quality and shortages and black markets.

We were stuck in the Gilded Age for decades before Roosevelt came along and started big trust-busting efforts. I expect a similar situation to play out here. We're probably in the middle of it in retrospect.

Now this... this is a hot take. How exactly do you expect these companies to "help humanity" if they're bleeding money?

I wish I had a good answer to give you here. I really don't understand financial markets. I more so just have a basic understanding of history and technology - my individual stock purchases are mostly me taking my knowledge base and extrapolating into the future and trying to figure out what companies I think are likely to grow.

As you can probably guess, I mostly try to stick to low-cost index funds, because my above "strategy" is nothing more than gambling.

I'm curious as to what your answers to the question are?

... does it? Are you seeing something I'm not seeing? Number one is that this just doesn't appear to be true (non-lite versions beat it across the board it seems), number two is that this specifically is a low-cost bulk model and not a SOTA frontier model, of course the benchmarks are lower.

This is probably a hot take and I am by no means a financial expert and this is probably quite wrong. I personally think that attempting to value these companies using the same methodology as the history of all American companies is fundamentally wrong. Sure, some mom and pop small local regional business that overperformed is probably more likely to underperform. But when it comes to big tech companies, these companies are operating a data and capital flywheel that doesn't easily just slow down. I mean, you look at the history of these computer tech companies, especially software companies. They really haven't slowed down. Like, look at Microsoft. It's just been growing from the very beginning, pretty much.

What are you even talking about? Everyone knows that Anthropic is drastically subsidizing their plans. It's actually the exact opposite of what you're talking about. The costs are extremely high and the prices are actually what's being subsidized and cheap right now.

Yeah, it's not that computer use is the most theoretically optimal paradigm, but there's a reasonable case that given the constraints of modern software systems and how they're built, that it's the most realistically optimal paradigm.

It depends on what you consider ineffectual to mean. Ineffectual at making new products and innovating? Yes, definitely. Ineffectual at preserving business momentum and continuing to grow profits? Well, the latest numbers speak for themselves.

Is there really a killer app here though? I've tried it and I think the hardware is really cool, but it doesn't really strike me that any of the software justifies the purchase price.

If I may ask, what devices would you consider to be "with the times"? If there's some dope AR headset that I don't know about, I'd love to learn more.

I'm starting to get the sense that Anthropic is the company that will fulfill the prophecy laid out in AI 2027.

I'm just not sure that Google, or anyone for that matter, really has the capital to do that with Anthropic. This is a near trillion dollar company.

Can you go into a bit more detail about what exactly it is that you are predicting? This is interesting, and definitely cuts against the grain that the rest of these comments are going with.

Any sources on this?

That's exactly what I'm saying is the problem. Side projects aren't as fulfilling when you can literally just have them done in 10 minutes.

Wow, it's starting to seem like the choice is essentially between an intelligence cap that pops the bubble, and an increasingly chaotic and unpredictable cybersecurity environment with major hacks and exploits left and right.

This comment thread really has me thinking. Is it possible that we might be at peak "consumer AI" in terms of intelligence? If it's basically impossible to verify that security-proficient AI is used for beneficial purposes, then these frontier models might start being regulated like WMD. We end up with two tiers of models. Dumber consumer models that are essentially lobotomized to the point of being completely safe. And actual frontier models that are heavily scrutinized and regulated and treated like nuclear weapons.

I find it pretty hard to see how Meta could possibly catch up to the existing frontier labs. Distillation, I guess, if you want to go that route, but between the fact that they're already way behind and the constant deluge of negative press like this, it strikes me that they would straight up need an architectural miracle in order to actually be competitive.

The thing about all this is that there's not a chance in hell that Anthropic can retain control against the wishes of the USG. Like, the USG has the guns, simple as. They're not going to tolerate a private company controlling this technology.

Anthropic likely knows this and is merely performing a song and dance. They're auditioning to be THE frontier AI lab.

I have a question. If A were to basically just release Mythos as-is, what would happen? What outcome are they so afraid of?