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7777777phil

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thezvi.substack.com 1d ago

OpenAI Shares Some Alignment Problems

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papers.ssrn.com 1d ago

Synthetic Consumer Panels Without Microdata via IPF

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thezvi.substack.com 3d ago

Demis Hassabis on the New Coming Age

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www.ofcom.org.uk 6d ago

Ofcom report on age verification in the UK

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www.a16z.news 7d ago

Banning AI in Law School: We've Seen This Before

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www.economist.com 8d ago

Elon Musk is building a form of capitalism that Adam Smith would hate

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www.natesilver.net 8d ago

Questions for the Center-Left

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www.natesilver.net 19d ago

America used to be exceptionally patriotic. Now we're below average

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www.natesilver.net 23d ago

Is the vibecession real – or is the survey broken?

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thezvi.substack.com 23d ago

WSJ Article Claiming China Has Matched Anthropic Is Obvious Nonsense

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thezvi.substack.com 24d ago

GPT-5.6: The System Card

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www.natesilver.net 29d ago

What is Gavin Newsom doing?

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philippdubach.com 1mo ago

Krugman, Fable 5, and Europe in Decline?

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thezvi.substack.com 1mo ago

GLM-5.2 Is the New Best Open Model

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www.natesilver.net 1mo ago

Trump Conquered the Republican Party

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www.quantamagazine.org 1mo ago

How Many Elementary Particles Are There, Really?

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www.macrumors.com 1mo ago

Apple 'Records Every Tap' in App Store to Filter Personalized Recommendations

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www.natesilver.net 1mo ago

A bigger World Cup is a better World Cup

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www.wheresyoured.at 1mo ago

AI's Brokenomics

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www.a16z.news 1mo ago

SpaceX and the Sentient Sun

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philippdubach.com 1mo ago

Degoogling cost me my YouTube feed, so I had to make my own

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www.natesilver.net 1mo ago

Knicks in 5

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www.bbc.com 1mo ago

Swiss voters reject 10M population cap, early projections say

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thezvi.substack.com 1mo ago

American Government Takes Down Claude Fable

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twitter.com 1mo ago

I used Fable to edit its own launch video

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techcrunch.com 1mo ago

SpaceX officially prices shares at $135 in the largest IPO ever

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www.a16z.news 1mo ago

Everything Is Recorded Now

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www.macrumors.com 1mo ago

Apple Passwords Now Auto Fixes Weak and Compromised Passwords with Agentic AI

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www.natesilver.net 1mo ago

Why isn't the U.S. better at soccer?

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www.natesilver.net 1mo ago

Why Can't California Count?

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17pts31

You probably already know this but sou can get a lot of Levine’s writing without a paid Bloomie subscription by subscribing to his Money Stuff Newsletter.

Tis is very simple and very cool! Just installed it on my Hetzner box where I run a remote controlled local agent so now I can basically chat/email a video link to get a summary and/or ask questions. The only issue was YouTube's PO Token requirement (web/mweb clients refuse to serve formats from datacenter IPs without a valid Proof-of-Origin token.) So I had to find a client that still work without PO Token first. Thanks for sharing!

I appreciate Evans’ work and wrote an “antithesis” to the Nov 2024 iteration of this. Given the pivot to “models look likely to become infrastructure” I might want to update my take.

Commenting here since this is somewhat related to the research (1) I have been doing lately:

UMA is one transparency layer.

The bigger one is the public WebSocket feed itself, which broadcasts post-match book state but hides taker identity. So trade direction inferred from the feed only hits 59% sign agreement vs on-chain ground truth.. that breaks six standard microstructure measures (effective spread, Kyle's lambda, Amihud, etc.) on most top-100 markets.

I believe any Polymarket research that depends on direction should to source it from on-chain OrderFilled events, not the feed.

Don't necessarily agree with all of the writing in this article. But I just spent the past weeks reading into the whole AI valuation topic again (did dis in March already (1)). So I'll try to add some perspective:

Form my research (1) Four widely cited 2025 enterprise AI revenue figures span 40x ($37B Menlo, $1.478T Gartner). The audit-grade floor you could defend on a 10-Q against $690B of 2026 hyperscaler capex is just $63.2B, or 9.2% coverage. Telecom 1999 peaked at 28%. Even after netting only AI-incremental capex you only get to 12-15%, which is still below the closest analogue we have.

(1) https://philippdubach.com/posts/ai-capex-arms-race-who-blink...

(2) https://philippdubach.com/posts/reconciling-enterprise-ai-re...

This is super cool - Started using Zed a couple weeks ago. Is there also something like a Theme gallery? Where one can look at Themes other people created? I would imagine not everyone has the inspiration to build their own "form scratch" but would still love to customize.

If your model converges to the same outputs as everyone else's because everyone trained on the same data, the only thing left to differentiate on is brand, and fear is great at building brand.

"We are too dangerous to commoditize" pitches better than "we are mostly typical of the internet's median answer", those are kind of the same statement.

Despite all the (valid) criticisms here I just wanted to say that this is a really cool Idea and well executed imo. Thanks for sharing!

OpenAI is doing the Joel Spolsky move, commoditize the layer above yours. Google did it with Kubernetes back when GCP was losing on infra. If they don't put a spec out, every orchestrator gets built around MCP or A2A by default and OpenAI is the third wheel. The spec is free, the runtime is where the money is..

50% cache savings is nice buuuuut.. token cost is the product now, not the model. Every coding agent is converging on the same trick, cache the context across calls. Anthropic's prompt caching, then Cursor's snapshots, now this Reddit thing.

Captive aftermarkets are roughly the biggest hidden cross-subsidy in consumer goods imo.. printer and tractor OEMs price the unit near cost and pull the lifetime margin out of parts, service, and locked firmware. That's why right-to-repair is one of the few issues where farm states and urban progressives end up in the same column.

The model is available today under the Apache 2.0 license on Hugging Face (opens in a new window) and Github (opens in a new window).

Bringing back the Open to OpenAI..